Core Viewpoint - The online travel agency (OTA) market in China is experiencing renewed competition, particularly with JD.com aggressively recruiting talent from major players like Ctrip and Meituan, indicating a strategic push into the hotel and travel sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: JD.com's Strategy in the OTA Market - JD.com is reportedly offering three times the salary to attract talent from competitors, which is seen as a direct challenge to the profitability of Ctrip and Meituan [1][4]. - The company is employing a strategy of "no bundling, transparent pricing" along with subsidies to entice customers, aiming to leverage its existing high-frequency food delivery business to drive traffic to its travel services [1][2][7]. - JD.com has been actively hiring for various positions related to travel, with salaries for roles like technical product managers in the travel sector ranging from 25,000 to 50,000 yuan per month [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The OTA market is currently dominated by major players such as Meituan, Ctrip, and Fliggy, creating a challenging environment for new entrants like JD.com [12][13]. - The travel sector is viewed as a lucrative opportunity, especially as traditional e-commerce platforms face growth challenges, with Meituan's local business segment showing a high operating profit margin of 19.7% [10][11]. - JD.com has previously attempted to enter the travel market but faced difficulties due to its e-commerce background, which limited its ability to establish strong offline resources [8][9]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges - JD.com's expansion into the travel sector is seen as a way to complete its local lifestyle service ecosystem, potentially leading to further competition with Meituan [14][15]. - The company aims to utilize its existing user base of 650 million annual active users to drive traffic to its new travel services, supported by ongoing subsidy policies [14][15]. - The success of JD.com's travel strategy will depend on its ability to manage high service costs and navigate the competitive landscape, which includes established players and new entrants like Douyin and Xiaohongshu [13][15].

Overall Performance - Meituan's Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.3% [1] - EBIT for Q1 2025 was 10.6 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 24.83% [1] - Adjusted net profit was approximately 10.9 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 12.6% [1] - Core local business revenue was 64.3 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.5% [1] - New business revenue was 22.2 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.4% [1] Core Local Business - Q1 2025 revenue for core local business was 64.3 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 1.5% [1] - Delivery service revenue was 25.7 billion yuan, commission revenue was 24.1 billion yuan, and online marketing revenue was 11.9 billion yuan [1] - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was 13.5 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 9.5% [1] Food Delivery - The company is expanding its product line and optimizing its 30-minute delivery network [2] - "Pin Hao Fan" and "Shen Qiang Shou" are continuously updated to meet diverse consumer needs [2] - Over 480 brands have opened more than 3,000 high-quality satellite stores on Meituan [2] - The company plans to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years to support the food service industry [2] In-store Business - Meituan's in-store business has seen a year-on-year increase of over 25% in active merchants [2] - The upgraded "Meituan Membership" system integrates various lifestyle services [2] Travel and Hospitality - The company is enhancing operational capabilities and service quality in the travel and hospitality sector [3] - The "Meituan Membership" plan encourages cross-selling and brand recognition in the travel industry [3] New Business - New business revenue grew by 19.2% year-on-year to 22.2 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.4% [3] - Operating losses narrowed by 17.5% year-on-year to 2.3 billion yuan, with an improved loss rate of 10.2% [3] - The company's overseas business has made significant strides, particularly in Saudi Arabia [3] Investment Outlook - Short-term competition may impact profitability, but long-term core competitiveness remains strong [4] - Projected revenues for Meituan from 2025 to 2027 are 391.3 billion, 463.2 billion, and 542.6 billion yuan respectively [4] - Projected net profits (Non-IFRS) for the same period are 33.8 billion, 47 billion, and 64.4 billion yuan respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price of 172.90 HKD [6][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Meituan's performance in Q1 2025 was better than expected, driven by growth in its ecosystem and overseas expansion despite short-term impacts from delivery subsidies [12][21]. - The report projects a high single-digit growth in food delivery orders, with improvements in user engagement and supply-side offerings contributing to revenue growth [2][9]. - Instant retail is expected to see approximately 30% growth in order volume, with strong brand operations enhancing performance [3][9]. - The hotel and travel segment is forecasted to grow over 30% in transaction value, with ongoing category expansion and improved consumer recognition through membership benefits [4][9]. - New business segments, particularly community group buying, are showing signs of reduced losses, and international expansion efforts are being actively pursued [4][9]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery - Q1 2025 food delivery orders are expected to grow in the high single digits, with improved user stickiness and frequency of purchases [2]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to outpace order volume growth due to enhanced advertising monetization and effective subsidies [2]. - Meituan plans to invest 100 billion CNY over the next three years to promote high-quality development in the industry [2]. Instant Retail - Q1 2025 instant retail orders are projected to grow by about 30%, with over 500 million transaction users and a significant increase in non-food orders [3]. - The establishment of over 30,000 instant warehouses is expected to enhance order volume contributions [3]. Hotel and Travel - The hotel and travel segment is expected to see a GTV growth of over 30% in Q1 2025, with ongoing product category expansion [4]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to be lower than GTV growth due to advertising revenue impacts [4]. New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue reached 22.2 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [4]. - Meituan's community group buying segment is expected to continue reducing losses, while international expansion plans include significant investments in markets like Brazil [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a revenue of 385.2 billion CNY for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [13]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at 36.9 billion CNY, with an EPS of 6.04 CNY [10][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 142.40 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 86.6 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, which exceeded consensus expectations by 1% [2][3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.6 billion, surpassing expectations by 23%, while adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, exceeding expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The management indicated that while short-term subsidy competition in the domestic food delivery market may impact profits, the long-term profitability is expected to return to reasonable levels due to the company's strong operational capabilities and market position [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes core local business revenue of RMB 64.3 billion (yoy +18%) and new business revenue of RMB 22.2 billion (yoy +19%) [2]. - The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in active merchants for its dine-in services, and the flash purchase segment has expanded its product categories significantly [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2025 to be RMB 385.9 billion, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 40.5 billion, reflecting a cautious adjustment due to expected subsidy competition [4][5]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation for the company's various segments includes an 8x PE for the food delivery business, 24x PE for the dine-in business, and 40x PE for the flash purchase business, leading to a target price of HKD 142.40 [4][11][12]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 23.5 billion from the food delivery segment in 2025, with a significant reduction in the previous forecast due to competitive pressures [11][12]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 40.5 billion, with a projected EPS of RMB 6.63 [5][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 142.40 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 86.6 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, which exceeded consensus expectations by 1% [2][3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.6 billion, surpassing expectations by 23%, while adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, exceeding expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The management indicated that while short-term subsidy competition in the domestic food delivery market may impact profits, the long-term profitability is expected to return to reasonable levels due to the company's strong operational capabilities and market position [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes core local business revenue of RMB 64.3 billion (yoy +18%) and new business revenue of RMB 22.2 billion (yoy +19%) [2]. - The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in active merchants for its dine-in services, and the flash purchase segment has expanded its product categories significantly [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2025 to be RMB 385.9 billion, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 40.5 billion, reflecting a cautious adjustment due to competitive pressures [4][5]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation for the company's various segments includes an 8x PE for the food delivery business, 24x PE for the dine-in business, and 40x PE for the flash purchase business, leading to a target price of HKD 142.40 [4][11][14]. - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of RMB 40.5 billion in 2025, with a gradual increase in profitability anticipated in subsequent years [5][22].

Core Insights - Airbnb is expanding its services beyond short-term rentals to include "Airbnb Services" and "Airbnb Experiences," aiming to enhance user engagement and revenue streams [1][4][9] - The company plans to invest $200 million by 2025 to support this strategic upgrade, leveraging its strong cash flow from core rental operations [7][17] - The new offerings are designed to attract users even when they are not traveling, addressing a decline in travel demand among American consumers [2][3][10] Summary by Sections Strategic Shift - Airbnb's new strategy includes the introduction of services like private chefs and fitness trainers, as well as curated local experiences [1][4] - The goal is to transform Airbnb from a rental platform into a comprehensive lifestyle service provider, potentially generating $1 billion or more in revenue from these new segments [4][9] Market Context - Post-pandemic, there was a surge in travel demand, but growth has since slowed, particularly in the U.S. market [2][3] - The company aims to counteract this trend by diversifying its offerings, as traditional travel-related services face uncertainty [3][10] Financial Commitment - The $200 million investment will be allocated to app development, service supply acquisition, and marketing efforts to raise awareness of the new offerings [7][12] - Airbnb's core business remains profitable, generating significant cash flow, which supports the funding of these new initiatives [17] User Engagement - The new services are expected to increase user interaction with the app, as they can be utilized in everyday life, not just during travel [11][13] - The redesigned app will feature an integrated experience for users, allowing seamless access to services and rentals [5][12] Competitive Landscape - Unlike other major U.S. tech companies, Airbnb is uniquely positioned to offer local lifestyle services, filling a gap in the market [8][9] - The company emphasizes its operational strengths in managing service providers, ensuring quality and ease of booking for users [15][17] Long-term Vision - Airbnb aims to achieve $1 billion in revenue from the new services within 3 to 5 years, while also enhancing the competitiveness of its core rental business [9][13] - The company will measure success by the frequency of app usage during both travel and non-travel periods [10][13]

Core Insights - The local life service market is experiencing intense competition, particularly between JD.com and Meituan, with JD's founder Liu Qiangdong personally engaging in the delivery experience, indicating a serious commitment to the market [1] - JD.com is positioning itself with a focus on "quality delivery" and a "20-minute late delivery free" policy, alongside a "zero commission" for the first year for merchants, which has made JD's delivery service a hot topic recently [1] - The local life service market has evolved significantly since the early days of O2O models, with Meituan establishing a near-monopoly after its merger with Dianping in 2015, but now faces renewed competition from JD.com [1] JD.com Delivery Service - JD.com announced that its delivery service has surpassed 10 million daily orders, covering 166 cities, but is still in a learning phase [3] - The scale of JD's delivery riders is approximately 1.3 million, with only 10,000 full-time riders, significantly lower than Meituan's 7 million riders, which raises concerns about JD's delivery capabilities [3] - Issues with JD's positioning system have been reported, leading to discrepancies in delivery times and difficulties in route planning for riders [5] Market Dynamics - The online food delivery market in China is projected to reach 17,469 billion yuan by 2025, making it the largest segment of the local life service market [8] - JD.com aims to leverage high-frequency delivery services to boost its low-frequency e-commerce business, competing against platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo [8] - Meituan's established "dual network" of merchants and delivery riders presents a significant barrier to entry for JD.com, as Meituan has a stronghold in delivery speed and merchant variety [9] Competitive Strategies - JD.com is implementing a substantial subsidy plan, expected to exceed 10 billion yuan within a year, to attract users and compete on price [12] - Meituan's new membership system aims to enhance user loyalty, offering various benefits across multiple service categories, while JD's membership focuses primarily on e-commerce [10] - The competition is intensifying as Meituan faces challenges from JD's aggressive pricing and rider benefits, including social security contributions for full-time riders [13] Broader Market Trends - The food delivery market is characterized by low profit margins, with global platforms expected to see net profit margins between 1.5% and 3.3% in 2024 [16] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards home cooking and lower-cost options, impacting the demand for delivery services [16][17] - New players like Douyin and Kuaishou are entering the local life service market, leveraging their video content platforms to attract users and merchants, further complicating the competitive landscape [18][20]

《哪吒2》创造的票房神话，有一大半是三四线城市的功劳。 据猫眼专业版数据，截至今年2月13号，一至四线城市的累计票房成绩分别是9.84亿、32.05亿、19.27亿、 36.60亿，三四线城市累计贡献了全国票房总量的57.2%。 透过票房可窥见新线城市消费力的冰山一角，近年来，互联网流行的"县城中产"、"县城贵妇"等高频词汇， 都是下沉市场消费力量上浮的证明。 全国171个公布2024年社会消费品零售数据的非一线城市中，97.1%都实现了消费增长，其中，增长率最高 的，是许多人都会感到陌生的四线小城——云南玉溪。 种种迹象表明，新线城市正从"五环外配角"进阶为"增长主舞台"，新线城市用户也正在逐渐掌握消费话语 权。 体现在移动互联网的生意场上亦是如此，汇聚7亿老铁用户、在新线市场深耕的快手，已经吃到消费市场结 构变迁的头茬红利，在去年实现11.8%的营收增长、72.5%的净利润增长。 而在所有欣欣向荣的业务线里， 2024年GMV同比增长200%的本地生活业务尤为亮眼，其中，新线城市用 户的贡献达到六成， 是当之无愧的中流砥柱。 一个从规模到潜力都足够庞大的消费群体摆在眼前，过去一年里，越来越多商家涌向快手， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust growth in its core business, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, achieving operating revenue of 337.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.94%, and a net profit of 35.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 158.4% [1] - The core local business showed steady growth, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 65.57 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, and operating profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 60.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant optimization in profit margins [1][3] - New business segments are solidifying market positions and expanding overseas, with Q4 2024 new business revenue reaching 22.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, and a substantial reduction in operating losses [2][3] Summary by Sections Core Local Business - Instant delivery orders and in-store travel orders saw significant growth, with Q4 2024 core local business revenue at 65.57 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year [1] - The company implemented various initiatives to enhance customer demand and support merchants, contributing to the growth in low-tier cities [2] New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue reached 22.92 billion yuan in Q4 2024, with a notable reduction in operating losses from 48.3 billion yuan to 21.8 billion yuan [2] - The international expansion strategy includes launching Keeta in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with rapid growth in user base and order volume [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 37.8% in Q4 2024, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved margins in grocery retail and operational efficiency [3] - Operating profit for Q4 2024 was 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280.7%, with core local business profitability significantly contributing to this growth [3] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 42.98 billion yuan, 52.73 billion yuan, and 62.56 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 51.13 billion yuan, 60.88 billion yuan, and 70.71 billion yuan [4][5]