6月9日，财通基金公告，旗下财通福瑞混合LOF场内二级市场交易价格明显高于基金份额参考净值，出现 较大幅度溢价。 6月9日，该基金场内份额上涨8.11%，全天成交量为36万元，叠加上一个交易日10%的涨幅，两个交易日内该 基金上涨超过18%，当前溢价率高达19.04%。 LOF净值大起大落的核心因素是突出的流动性风险。据券商中国记者统计，截至6月9日，当前LOF产品整体份 额仅为405亿份，超百只基金场内流通份额不足1000万份，329只基金份额不足1亿份，甚至屡有LOF基金单日 场内成交金额不足1000元。 对于频繁出现的LOF基金折溢价行为，有公募观察人士认为，基金公司可以多管齐下，针对基金的不同情况择 优去选择和应对。比如，针对交易型产品出现不合理折溢价时进行风险提示；针对二级市场交易不活跃的LOF 可选择退市，这也是对投资者负责，为公司节省上市成本的合理选择；而针对规模过小、竞争力不足的老基金 通过清盘等方式处置，释放公司资源，也成为越来越多基金公司的选择。 行情方面，该基金在二级市场已经连续两日封住涨停，6月6日平开后被500多手的交易规模推至涨停，全天成 交额约为31万元，6月9日则再度涨超8%， ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-05 美国5月ADP数据不及预期，关注非农数据验证 市场分析 商品后续关注基本面的传导，长期关注滞胀配置。从2018年的关税复盘来看，加征关税事件呈现先交易需求下行， 后交易通胀上升，对于黑色、有色等工业品需要警惕来自美股调整的情绪冲击。而农产品需求相对稳定，关税带 来的价格上行波动概率更大。能源方面，6月初的产量会议上，欧佩克再次决定7月份当月增加41.1万桶/日的配额， 在4月至7月四个月期间将配额增加近135万桶/日，然而实际产量却远不及预期，不管是产量与船期数据，均显示截 止6月初欧佩克没有丝毫的增产迹象，短期能源围绕增产事实博弈，中期基本面供给偏宽松看待。俄罗斯国家杜马 国际事务委员会主席斯卢茨基表示，俄乌第三轮谈判极有可能于6月底在伊斯坦布尔举行。黄金继续关注低位的机 会。 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-04 欧元区通胀放缓超预期，关注美国5月ADP数据 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 收到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。面对关税的下外需压力和内部的稳增长述求，关注财政进一步加 码的可能。中国央行5月23日将开展5000亿元MLF操作。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会 谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制。7月前宏观预计更多围绕经 济事实验证展开，尤其关注关税和谈后是否出现新一轮的"抢出口"。香港特别行政区政府于5月30日在宪报刊登《稳 定币条例》，6月3日A股稳定币概念股开盘大涨。 特朗普关税再反转。5月28日，美国国际贸易法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的加征关税 行政令越权，判定总统无权以贸易失衡为由对多国加征全面关税，该行政令将被撤销并禁止执行。5月30日，特朗 普表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至5 ...

欧洲央行监事会主席Buch：银行对私募市场的敞口可能带来偿付能力和流动性方面的风险，而这些风 险可能未被风险管理框架充分识别和应对。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] Core Viewpoints - Focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic data was mixed. Exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Regarding commodities, be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products from the US stock adjustment, and the price of agricultural products may rise due to tariffs. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas, and OPEC+ may increase production [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. US Market - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries [2]. Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases shows a pattern of first trading the decline in demand and then trading the rise in inflation. Be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products such as black and non-ferrous metals from the US stock adjustment. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. The price of crude oil has declined, and OPEC+ will increase production in June and may further increase production in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas [2]. Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] To - Do News - The Fed meeting minutes show increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, and a cautious monetary policy is appropriate. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India, the US and the UK. The US government restricts the sale of semiconductor software services to China. The US International Trade Court's ruling on tariffs has been appealed. Japan will issue 800 billion yen in 30 - year government bonds. OPEC+ will discuss production increases in July [2][5][6]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Recent macroeconomic concerns regarding U.S. debt and deficits have led to a temporary rebound in U.S. Treasury and dollar index, but the previous bullish sentiment in precious metals has not sustained, resulting in profit-taking [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, indicating improved economic outlook among consumers, despite a decline in durable goods orders [2] - The recent geopolitical stability has contributed to a short-term correction in precious metals, with expectations of gold prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by late 2025 or 2026 [3] Group 2: Price Movements and Technical Analysis - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility due to changes in trade relations between major economies, with a notable drop of nearly $60 in New York futures following shifts in U.S.-EU trade dynamics [4] - The current decline in gold prices marks the third correction since reaching above $3,500 on April 22, suggesting a weakening upward momentum that may indicate a significant market shift if the trend continues [4] - Analysts caution that the market's response to geopolitical narratives is swift, and the recent adjustments in precious metals may not be merely temporary [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, China's exports are supported by re - exports and the easing of Sino - US tariffs, but investment data in April weakened, especially in the real estate sector, and consumption was slightly pressured. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The RMB is expected to be more stable in the future [2] - The long - term US Treasury yield continues to rise due to rating downgrades and fiscal expansion expectations, and potential liquidity risks should be noted. The market is focusing on the Japanese 40 - year Treasury auction on Wednesday [3] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the follow - up, and stagflation allocation in the long term. Be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products, and the price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. The medium - term supply of energy is considered to be relatively loose [4] Content Summary by Directory Market Analysis - China's April economic data was mixed. Exports slightly exceeded expectations, investment weakened, fiscal revenue and expenditure increased, and consumption was under pressure. The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the RMB is expected to be more stable. Rating agencies maintained or upgraded Hong Kong's credit rating [2] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continued to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest - rate setting framework, and the first interest - rate cut this year is expected to be postponed to September. There are uncertainties in US - EU trade negotiations, and Japan is taking measures to deal with US tariffs [3] Commodity Market - For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments. Agricultural product prices are more likely to rise due to tariffs. The IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC + plans to increase production. The EU plans to ban imports of Russian gas, and there is an opportunity to go long on gold on dips [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] To - do News - Rating agencies maintained or upgraded Hong Kong's credit rating. The US may lower tariffs on some countries, and the trade agreement with India is close to completion. Japan is taking measures to deal with US tariffs, and may adjust the bond issuance plan. The market is waiting for the Japanese 40 - year Treasury auction, and OPEC + advanced the meeting date [7] Macroeconomic Data Charts - There are charts related to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city commodity housing transaction area, steel consumption, Sino - US Treasury yield spreads, US dollar exchange rates, and the interest - rate corridor [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, waiting for fundamental verification; allocate more gold on dips [2] Core View of the Report - The US-EU trade friction has eased temporarily, and the RMB has shown resilience. The short-term export is supported, but the investment data has weakened, and attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The long-term US Treasury yields have continued to rise, and attention should be paid to potential liquidity risks. For commodities, pay attention to the fundamental transmission and long-term stagflation allocation. [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, China's export slightly exceeded expectations, but the investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure increased simultaneously, and consumption was slightly pressured. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The China-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the two sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a negotiation mechanism. The RMB is expected to be more stable in the future. [1] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt is expected to continue to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate setting framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is expected to be postponed to September. The US-EU tariff war has been postponed, which has improved market risk appetite. [1] - For commodities, beware of the emotional impact of the US stock adjustment on industrial products, and the price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. The crude oil price has declined, and the supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia, and the EC plans to levy a 2 euro tax on small packages entering the EU. Gold may present a buying opportunity on dips. [1] Strategy - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, waiting for fundamental verification; allocate more gold on dips. [2] Important News - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1843 against the US dollar on Monday, up 52 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 86 basis points. [1][5] - The Fed's Kashkari said that uncertainty is the most concerned issue for the Fed and US companies, and long-term high tariffs will increase the risk of stagflation. [1][5] - The President of the European Commission said that Europe is ready to advance trade negotiations quickly and decisively, and the US has agreed to extend the deadline for EU tariffs to July 9. [1][5] - The US President said that the US does not plan to produce textiles but will focus on manufacturing large items such as tanks, chips, and computers. [1][5]

Group 1 - The core limitation of stock index futures trading is primarily reflected in leverage risk and margin system, which is considered a double-edged sword [4] - Margin trading typically requires a margin ratio of 10%-20%, allowing investors to leverage small amounts for larger positions, but losses can also be magnified by leverage [4] - Forced liquidation risk arises when account equity falls below the maintenance margin level, leading to potential total loss of principal [4] Group 2 - Position limits and large trader reporting systems are implemented to prevent market manipulation, with specific limits set on the number of contracts held by a single account [4] - Institutional investors may face challenges in building large positions due to these limits, necessitating account diversification or quota applications [4] Group 3 - Regulatory policy interventions can be used by authorities to mitigate systemic risks, adjusting margin ratios, fees, and price limits to curb excessive speculation [7] - Transaction costs can significantly increase during market turmoil, as seen in 2015 when margin requirements were raised from 10% to 40% [8] Group 4 - Daily price fluctuation limits restrict the price movement of futures contracts to a certain percentage of the previous day's settlement price, which can disrupt liquidity [10] - In extreme market conditions, consecutive price limits may trap investors in unfavorable positions [11] Group 5 - Liquidity risks are present in non-main contracts and extreme market conditions, where main contracts have sufficient liquidity but far-term contracts may not [12] - Large orders may incur significant slippage costs due to wide bid-ask spreads, complicating exit strategies [13] Group 6 - Trading time limitations exist as domestic stock index futures trading hours are typically shorter than global markets, leading to overnight risks [15] - Investors relying on global strategies may face challenges due to time mismatches in trading hours [16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of elite universities, led by Harvard and Yale, withdrawing from private equity funds raises concerns about potential liquidity issues in the private credit market, reminiscent of the pre-2007 subprime crisis [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the current state of the private credit market shows signs of stress, with widening spreads between BB-rated and CCC-rated bonds indicating that many junk assets are under pressure [1][3] - Elite universities, despite having substantial endowments (e.g., Harvard's $53 billion), are facing cash shortages, leading them to tap into the bond market for operational funds [2][11] Group 2: Private Credit Concerns - Gundlach challenges the notion that private credit is less volatile than public credit, arguing that this belief is based on infrequent market valuations and a lack of transparency in asset valuations [1][5][6] - The inconsistency in asset valuations among different managers in private credit raises concerns about the reliability of these investments [6][7] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Gundlach draws parallels between the current private credit situation and the subprime crisis, emphasizing that past performance does not guarantee future results, particularly in a market that has not been thoroughly tested [7][9] - The potential for private credit to be marketed to the general public, which was previously considered a complex investment for professionals, could lead to significant issues if liquidity is required [3][4]