摘要 财通证券陈兴预计，4月投资累计增速或保持稳定。 他们预计，受季节性因素影响，4月金融数据将较上月回落，新增贷款预测均值为7764亿元、社会融资 总量预测均值为1.31万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为7.3%。在调研中，经济学家们均表示，未来货币 政策将维持宽松状态。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，信贷方面，4月为信贷小月，信贷增速或继续与上月持平。 2025年4月30日，人民币对美元中间价为7.2014元。经济学家们预计，5月人民币对美元中间价可能会有 所上调，他们对到5月底人民币对美元中间价的预测均值为7.18，同时对年底人民币对美元中间价的平 均预期由上月的7.21上调至7.17。 2025年5月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为49.84，回落至50荣枯线以下。 经济学家们认为，受外需下行拖累，叠加关税政策前景不明朗，我国经济面临一定压力。 招商证券谢亚轩认为，外需缺口将推动国内政策加码，其中，需求侧主要着力于居民消费需 求，供给侧主要着力于为外贸企业纾困解难。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推 出十项政策，进一步实施好适度宽松 ...

事实上，北京SKP通过丰富的活动及互动，与消费者形成文化价值共鸣，是北京SKP提供以消费者为中 心的全方面体验的举措之一。在大力提振消费、全方位扩大国内需求的政策引导下，国内消费市场逐步 回暖，消费者信心逐渐增强。2025年第一季度，北京SKP旗下业务销售额同比增长18%。 4月10日，取得一季度"开门红"的SKP，正式拉开一年一度的"生日庆"序幕。据了解，生日庆开启日当 天，北京SKP销售额同比增长15%，在持续释放消费潜力、提振居民消费信心方面做出了新的探索，同 时也为保障SKP在第二季度乃至2025年全年开好局、起好步奠定扎实基础。 此外，作为北京市首批离境退税和即买即退的商店，北京SKP在2024年接待的离境退税顾客数量同比增 长108%，在助力北京吸引海外消费回流、支持国际消费中心城市建设方面亦有贡献。 本报讯 （记者矫月见习记者梁傲男）4月30日至5月11日，北京华联（SKP）百货有限公司（以下简 称"北京SKP"）推出精酿啤酒季活动，带来120余款风格精酿啤酒，从"五一"假期持续至"立夏"，为顾客 带来沉浸式啤酒"狂欢"活动，吸引了众多消费者参与。 记者注意到，在本次精酿啤酒季活动中，丹麦米凯乐 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on May 8, but the Consumer ETF (159735) quickly turned positive, rising by 0.25% during the session [1] - Key stocks in the Consumer ETF included Li Auto-W, which rose nearly 2%, and several others like Smoore International, Tofok, Pop Mart, Yadea Holdings, Sands China Ltd., Meituan-W, and Geely Automobile, all of which increased by over 1% [1] - The Consumer ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which consists of 50 liquid and large-cap consumer-related stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, weighted by free float market capitalization [1] Group 2 - On May 7, the Guangdong Provincial Government released a plan to boost consumption, which includes 31 specific measures across 8 areas, such as supporting the replacement of old consumer goods like cars and home appliances [1] - The plan also encourages local governments to explore a model combining fiscal subsidies, corporate discounts, and financial empowerment for large durable goods replacement [1] - A press conference on May 7 announced a series of significant policies aimed at revitalizing the stock market, real estate, and the real economy, which are expected to enhance consumer capacity and support the service and elderly care markets [2]

Group 1 - The resumption of maritime passenger and cargo transport with Incheon, South Korea, marks a significant development for Dandong, enhancing its cross-border trade capabilities [1] - Dandong's GDP reached 21.91 billion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, surpassing both provincial and national averages by 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [1] - The city is actively implementing various projects and policies to stimulate economic growth, focusing on investment expansion, industrial strengthening, and reform promotion [1] Group 2 - Dandong is executing 101 major technological transformation projects to support enterprises in their smart and digital upgrades, while also enhancing operational support for key industrial players [2] - The city is promoting consumption through specialized actions and cultural tourism events, aiming to convert tourism flow into increased consumer spending [2] - Dandong is prioritizing safety by conducting thorough inspections and addressing potential hazards in critical sectors to ensure a secure development environment [2]

"五一"假期，省内不少门店、货仓订单火爆、发货繁忙，消费品以旧换新带动消费市场焕发新活 力，提振消费的助企惠民政策成效日益彰显。海尔、京东、苏宁等3000余家企业、1.2万个门店从品 质、价格、服务三方面着力，持续提升消费体验。5月1日至5日，全省共有22.2万人次参与消费品以旧 换新活动，惠享补贴金额达1.4亿元，带动相关产品销售额实现10.4亿元。其中，汽车以旧换新2801辆、 家电以旧换新107528台、手机购新补贴95446台、家装厨卫以旧换新14012台、电动自行车以旧换新2036 台。 春意盎然，人们乐于踏青出游，文旅热也带动了消费热。各地深入推进"商旅文体健"融合，围绕踏 春赏花、文博体验、赛事互动等主题打造更多消费场景。沈阳举办辽宁省中医药文化夜市和"奔跑辽 宁"辽宁城市定向赛等活动。大连改造升级后的东关街成为当地热门消费打卡地，百余家潮流店铺深受 消费者青睐。葫芦岛举办兴城古城灯光秀，一系列活动吸引客流量增加超40%，带动消费增长15%。 发放消费券直接让利消费者，降低消费成本，能快速激发消费热情，成为多地刺激消费的关键举 措。"五一"假期，沈阳、鞍山、丹东、朝阳、盘锦等地以消费券、企业打折 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting focused on "Boosting Consumption and Serving People's Good Life," aiming to transform work styles, conduct in-depth research, and promote high-quality development in the light industry sector. Group 1: Light Industry Development - The China Light Industry Federation emphasizes the need for in-depth industry research to understand new market demands and trends, aiming to innovate and cultivate consumption growth points [1][2] - The China Sewing Machinery Association plans to implement seven major initiatives in 2024 to promote high-quality development, including policy advocacy, skill training, and international market expansion [1] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association is actively promoting the "old for new" appliance replacement program, leveraging the AWE exhibition to stimulate consumer demand [3] Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The China Toy and Juvenile Products Association is addressing industry challenges such as tariffs and standards, advocating for the inclusion of certain products in the "old for new" policy [5][6] - The China Sugar Association is focusing on technological empowerment and sustainable practices, with a projected sugar production increase to 11 million tons in the 2024/25 period [7][8] - The China Food Additives and Ingredients Association reported a stable growth in the food additives sector, with a production increase of 3.5% and sales growth of 2.0% in 2024 [9][10] Group 3: Consumer Trends and Innovations - The China Beverage Association reported a record beverage production of 188 million tons in 2024, with a focus on enhancing consumer experience and expanding market reach [15][16] - The China Biochemical Fermentation Industry Association is implementing six practical measures to support industry growth, emphasizing technology and safety [17][18] - The China Industrial Design Association is promoting design innovation to enhance product value and stimulate consumer demand [22][23] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The China Musical Instruments Association identified trends such as the rise of electronic instruments and a growing interest in music among middle-class consumers [28][29] - The China Bicycle Association noted a stable production environment with a significant increase in electric bicycle sales due to the "old for new" policy [30][31]

中金研究 五一消费恢复环比提速，看好居民消费需求持续释放 据商务部，五一假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%，增速相较24年国庆（4.5%）、25年春节（5.4%）呈环比提速；各省市及线上平台发 布的消费数据显示，长线游、出入境游均有亮眼表现，同时品类上以旧换新备受欢迎，演唱会、潮玩等体验型消费亦表现较好。展望后续，我们继续看好 消费提振政策逐步显效，全年居民消费需求持续释放。 1、五一期间商圈客流及消费延续回暖。 根据各省市数据，高线城市重点商圈客流较火热，北京60个重点商圈（+8.3%）、上海35个重点商圈 （+12.9%）、长沙五一商圈（峰值+22.2%）同比增幅明显，显示假期外出客流及消费意愿高涨。消费意愿方面，5月1至5日境内微信支付总消费订单同增 10%，显示出较好的消费热情。分地区看，根据各省市商务局披露，南京、上海、杭州等重点旅游城市消费数据（具体口径详见下方图表）分别同增 8.7%/13.1%/9.0%。 2、出入境游"双向奔赴"，品质游、长线游表现优。 交通运输部预计5月1日至5日全社会跨区域人员流动量约14.7亿人次，日均同比增长约8.0%，好于春 节及去年国庆；据飞猪统计， ...

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, Liaoning's GDP reached 760.69 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% and rising from 18th to 16th in national rankings [1][3] - The province's economic growth is driven by industrial and consumer sectors, with the secondary industry increasing by 5.4% and high-tech manufacturing growing by 10.9% [2][3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Liaoning grew by 7.8%, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.7%, and exports rose by 10.5%, all surpassing national averages [3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 13.2%, accounting for 26.7% of total investment, with significant growth in aerospace and electronic equipment manufacturing [4] - Consumer spending was boosted by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, with notable increases in retail sales of new energy vehicles (22.5%) and smart wearable devices (13.1%) [4] Trade Performance - Liaoning's exports reached a record 95.11 billion yuan in Q1, growing by 10.5%, supported by a strong performance from private enterprises [5][6] - The province's trade with Belt and Road countries amounted to 102.65 billion yuan, marking a 5.9% increase, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and Saudi Arabia [7] City Contributions - Shenyang and Dalian are key economic drivers, with Dalian's GDP at 228.03 billion yuan (6.2% growth) and Shenyang's at 212.18 billion yuan (4.6% growth) [8][11] - Dalian's industrial output increased by 10.9%, with strong growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [9] - Shenyang's growth was bolstered by a significant increase in the cultural and tourism sectors, with revenues from cultural and entertainment industries rising by 19% [12][13]

Group 1: Consumer Incentives - Shenzhen's Nanshan District has launched a "Tuesday Enjoyment" campaign, distributing a total of 24 million yuan in restaurant and retail consumption vouchers in five rounds to stimulate consumption [13][14] - The consumption vouchers include various denominations, such as "spend 500 get 200 off," and are available for residents through specific WeChat mini-programs [14] Group 2: Transportation and Tourism - During the "May Day" holiday, Shenzhen's metro system saw a significant increase in passenger flow, with over 10 million trips recorded on April 30 and May 1, marking a 23% increase compared to the same period last year [9][6] - The K11 ECOAST cultural and artistic district attracted over 300,000 visitors since its soft opening, averaging over 150,000 daily visitors, showcasing its appeal as a new cultural hotspot in the Greater Bay Area [12] Group 3: Automotive Promotions - Longgang District organized an "Automobile Grand Gathering" event during the "May Day" holiday, offering substantial discounts and promotions from various car dealerships to boost car sales [15][16] - Discounts included significant savings on popular models, with some brands offering up to 96,000 yuan off through trade-ins and government subsidies [15] Group 4: Cultural and Recreational Activities - The Shenzhen Science and Technology Museum opened during the holiday, hosting over 200 educational activities, attracting large crowds and enhancing public interest in science [18] - Various cultural events and festivals were held in the Guangming District, including a flower-themed festival and a rabbit carnival, aimed at providing unique experiences for families and tourists [17][18]

Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and enhancing investment efficiency as a top priority for the year [1] - Various sectors are collaborating to stimulate consumption, with a focus on releasing consumer potential [1] Group 1: New Commercial Centers - Shenzhen iN City Plaza has reopened with 29 new brands, over 40% of which are in the food and beverage sector, catering to diverse consumer needs [2] - The plaza aims to create a "young lifestyle emotional space," featuring a 30,000 square meter outdoor sports park [2] - The newly opened Yonghui Supermarket adopts a modified store model to enhance shopping comfort, focusing on family health needs with specialized sections for organic and safe food [4] Group 2: Cultural and Artistic Integration - K11ECOAST, a new cultural and artistic area in Shenzhen, aims to combine park, culture, and commerce, creating a multi-dimensional lifestyle space [5] - The area features various attractions, including a floating bookstore and creative retail spaces, targeting the exploratory consumption preferences of the younger generation [6] - K11ECOAST is positioned as a new urban landmark, promoting cultural activities to connect with the community and enhance economic development in the Greater Bay Area [6] Group 3: Cross-Border Consumption - The newly opened Luohu Yitian Holiday Plaza has attracted significant consumer interest, particularly from Hong Kong residents, with special payment discounts for cross-border shoppers [7] - The K11ECOAST area is enhancing connectivity between Shenzhen and Hong Kong through new transportation options, including cross-border buses and ferry services [8] - These developments are expected to facilitate seamless cross-border shopping experiences, making it easier for Hong Kong residents to access Shenzhen's retail offerings [8]