Macro Overview - The long-term growth potential of China's economy is significant, with a stable macroeconomic total expected by 2025, but structural differentiation is evident, necessitating policy solutions for weak domestic demand in 2026 [4] - Asset restructuring is crucial, with inflation expectations playing a vital role in wealth management for residents [5] - Global economic and monetary system restructuring is leading to changes in the pricing framework for assets like gold, the US dollar, and US Treasuries [6] Hong Kong Stock Market Strategy - Hong Kong stocks have substantial upward valuation potential, with the overall valuation still considered low despite a rapid recovery in 2025 [11] - The market is expected to attract a significant amount of incremental capital, with over 1.5 trillion yuan anticipated from domestic investors in 2026 [12] - The scarcity of quality assets in the Hong Kong market is a strong supporting factor for upward movement, particularly in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [12] - The technology sector is projected to be the main focus for 2026, driven by the AI wave and supportive policies [13] Non-Banking Sector Regulations - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking opinions on new guidelines for performance benchmarks for publicly offered securities investment funds, aiming to address systemic issues in performance comparison and management mechanisms [19][20] - The new regulations will enhance the selection, change, disclosure, and constraint of benchmarks, improving investment transparency and potentially increasing the proportion of index products in the market [21] Asset Overview - Equity markets are outperforming bonds and commodities, with significant gains in Asian markets, particularly Japan and South Korea [25][26] - The bond market shows a "bull steep" characteristic in China, while US Treasuries exhibit a "bear flat" trend due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [27] - Commodity indices have seen declines, with gold and oil leading the downturn, while the US dollar index has risen [28]

Core Insights - The report highlights that since September 2024, the Hong Kong Stock Connect has been continuously injecting incremental funds into the Hong Kong stock market, with ETFs becoming a significant vehicle for this capital inflow [1][2]. Group 1: ETF as a Key Investment Vehicle - ETFs have emerged as a crucial channel for capital inflow into the Hong Kong market, with a cumulative net inflow of 11,438.8 billion yuan since the beginning of 2025, of which 2,763.7 billion yuan flowed through ETFs, accounting for over 20% of the total [2]. - By the end of Q3 2025, the market value of public funds investing in Hong Kong stocks reached 13,117 billion yuan, with passive public funds holding 6,862 billion yuan, representing 52.3% of the total [2]. Group 2: Fund Flow Trends in ETFs - In 2025, there is a noticeable preference for industry and thematic ETFs, while broad-based ETFs are experiencing outflows. The technology sector has become the focal point for capital allocation, with significant interest in innovative pharmaceuticals, large financials, and dividend sectors [3]. - Since the beginning of 2025, nearly 65% of the cumulative net inflow into Hong Kong stock ETFs has been concentrated in the technology sector [3]. - From June 2025 onwards, there has been an accelerated net inflow into Hong Kong stock ETFs, with a widening gap between the total net inflow into all ETFs and that of technology sector ETFs, as innovative pharmaceuticals and large financials have diverted some of the incremental funds [3]. Group 3: Recent Fund Flow Dynamics - In recent months, there has been a significant inflow into technology ETFs, with a net inflow of 20.1 billion yuan since early October 2025, despite adjustments in the Hang Seng Technology Index [5]. - The dividend sector has also seen a marked increase in inflow, with 4.6 billion yuan net inflow since early October, reaching a high level since September 2024 [5]. - Conversely, the inflow into innovative pharmaceutical ETFs has slowed, with a net inflow of 3.5 billion yuan since early October [6].

Group 1 - The first Hong Kong ETF focused on "hard" technology, specifically semiconductor chips, electronics, and computer software, is set to launch on October 27 [1][2] - The Hong Kong Automotive 50 ETF, which focuses on leading car manufacturers, is expected to be launched soon [1][2] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF is designed to invest in major internet giants in the region [1][2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF is 100% focused on innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF combines technology and dividend strategies [1][3] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF offers high dividend yields with low volatility [1][3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Small Cap LOF targets small and mid-cap assets [1][3] - The Value Fund LOF focuses on A+H shares with dividend characteristics [1][3] - The new consumption wave driven by Generation Z is highlighted through the Huabao CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen New Consumption Index [1][3]

Group 1 - The valuation gap between A-shares and H-shares has widened, with the AH premium index rising since October, indicating that H-shares are becoming more attractive to investors [1][2] - The AH premium is defined as the price difference between the same company listed in both A-shares and H-shares, influenced by factors such as investor structure and liquidity [1] - Recent data shows that the AH premium index has been increasing, suggesting that A-shares are relatively overvalued compared to H-shares, driven by a recovery in risk appetite in the mainland market and a strengthening of the RMB [1] Group 2 - Over 100 companies are listed in both A-shares and H-shares, with A-shares generally having higher valuations; some leading stocks have price differences exceeding 40% [4] - The AH premium for leading stocks has mostly expanded, indicating that A-shares' valuation premium is still rising while H-shares are becoming more attractive [4] - H-shares are seen as having improved investment value due to lower valuations reflecting similar profit expectations compared to A-shares [4] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index's equity risk premium (ERP) has recently rebounded from a three-year rolling -2 standard deviation position, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards re-evaluating H-share assets [7][10] - The recovery in the ERP suggests that the valuation repair of H-shares is transitioning from being sentiment-driven to being supported by earnings and liquidity [7][10] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is highlighted as having high valuation repair potential and strong liquidity, making it a focal point for investors during the current liquidity cycle [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to improve, with significant opportunities for quality growth companies, driven by unique selection logic and fundamental research [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong stock market has attracted over 1 trillion yuan in southbound capital inflows this year, with sectors like innovative drugs, new consumption, and hard technology gaining attention [1]. - The "quality growth" investment strategy focuses on three dimensions: domestic demand, international expansion, and unique institutional advantages of the Hong Kong market [2][5]. - Companies benefiting from domestic demand are showing solid fundamentals and wider competitive moats, with potential for valuation and profit "double boosts" as the economic cycle stabilizes [2]. - Companies actively expanding internationally are expected to elevate their growth ceilings, with the potential emergence of world-class brands and industry leaders [2]. - The unique institutional advantages of the Hong Kong market, such as flexible IPO and refinancing systems, provide a rich source of growth opportunities for innovative companies [2]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by high volatility, often being the first to be sold off during market panic, which presents both risks and unique investment opportunities [3]. - Investors are encouraged to conduct in-depth fundamental research and maintain confidence in the long-term fundamentals of companies to achieve better performance [3]. - A stable investment framework and a calm mindset are crucial for successful investing, especially when there is a significant disconnect between a company's stock price and its intrinsic value [3]. Group 3: Future Market Trends - Investment strategies are shifting from external to internal focus, with the Chinese economic fundamentals and corporate profit cycles becoming the core drivers of the Hong Kong market [5]. - There is a growing emphasis on mid-level analysis, with in-depth research on industry cycles and leading companies being key to achieving excess returns [5]. - The market is expected to see opportunities in sectors that may currently be overlooked, with a focus on identifying mispriced assets through a "turning stones" approach [5].

- The report constructs a "Hot Money Activity Indicator" based on the data from the Dragon and Tiger List, which shows the participation enthusiasm of hot money traders. The indicator has been marginally rising but the slope of the rise has been slowing down, indicating that the enthusiasm of hot money traders is peaking[12] - The "Retail Investor Activity Indicator" constructed in the report shows that since September 11, the activity of retail investors has been fluctuating and has not significantly increased even when the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year on October 25[12] - The report suggests that the recent marginal cooling of both hot money and retail investor sentiment can be verified by the continuous shrinkage of market turnover[12] - The "Insider Trader Activity Indicator" constructed in the report shows that the activity of insider traders is in sync with the market trend, with the equity market rising and the indicator maintaining a warming trend[15] - The report uses the "Price Segmentation System" to analyze the Shanghai Composite Index, showing that the daily line of the index maintains a marginal upward trend, and the weekly line is basically coincident with the daily line[14] - The "Hot Money Activity Indicator" value as of October 24 is close to leveling off[12] - The "Retail Investor Activity Indicator" has been fluctuating since September 11[12] - The "Insider Trader Activity Indicator" shows a warming trend in sync with the market[15] - The "Price Segmentation System" shows a +2.88% range fluctuation for the Shanghai Composite Index from October 20 to October 24[14]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a pullback, with the first Hong Kong large-cap 30 ETF (520560) declining by 1.22%, primarily due to weakness in major tech stocks like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong large-cap 30 ETF (520560) is showing signs of active buying despite the overall market weakness, indicating investor interest in picking up shares at lower prices [1] - The market is expected to see a turning point in the economic cycle as supply and demand dynamics improve, with a potential influx of southbound and foreign capital driving long-term upward trends in Hong Kong stocks [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The concentration of industries in the Hong Kong stock market is high, with new economy sectors such as consumption, telecommunications, healthcare, and technology gaining a larger share [2] - The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is significantly lower than that of major global markets, characterized by low price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, suggesting a systemic discount compared to A-shares [2] Group 3: ETF Composition - The Hong Kong large-cap 30 ETF (520560) closely tracks the Hang Seng China (Hong Kong-listed) 30 Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, employing a "technology + dividend" strategy [2] - The top ten holdings in the index account for over 74% of the total weight, indicating a high concentration and strong capacity to absorb large trades with lower impact costs [2][3] - The total market capitalization of the index's constituent stocks is approximately 320,825 million [3]

========= - The "Guosen JinGong Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] - The portfolio's backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - The portfolio construction involves selecting stocks based on analysts' upward earnings forecasts, initial coverage, and unexpected events in analyst reports[15] Portfolio Backtesting Results - Annualized return: 19.11%[15] - Excess return relative to the Hang Seng Index: 18.48%[15] - Maximum drawdown: 23.73%[20] - Information ratio (IR): 1.22[20] - Tracking error: 14.55%[20] - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 0.78[20] Stable New High Stock Screening Method - The method screens stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, stock price stability, and continuity of new highs[23][24] - The formula for the 250-day new high distance is: $$ 250 \text{ day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $$ where $Closet$ is the latest closing price and $ts\_max(Close, 250)$ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[23] - Stocks are selected based on the absolute value of the past 120-day price change and the sum of the absolute values of the past 120-day price changes[23] Stable New High Stock Screening Results - The sector with the most new high stocks is the cyclical sector, followed by technology, consumer, financial, manufacturing, and pharmaceutical sectors[23] - Specific stocks that have reached stable new highs include China National Building Material, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and others[23][29] - The screening criteria include analyst attention (at least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 6 months), relative stock strength (top 20% in the past 250 days), and stock price stability (top 50% based on price path smoothness and new high continuity)[24] Performance of Hong Kong Stock Connect and Active Funds Investing in Hong Kong Stocks - Median return of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks this week: -3.44%[44] - Median return of active funds investing in Hong Kong stocks this week: -3.79%[44] - Median return of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks this year: 25.14%[44] - Median return of active funds investing in Hong Kong stocks this year: 34.50%[44] Top Performing Funds - This week: Ping An Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Select A (2.29%), China Merchants Bank Hong Kong and Shanghai Multi-Strategy (1.90%), Ping An Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Select A (1.88%)[45] - This year: China Universal Hong Kong Advantage Select A (140.23%), Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical A (104.90%), E Fund Global Pharmaceutical Industry RMB A (93.97%)[45] =========

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 30.40% and 38.02% respectively, reaching new highs [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have both reached new highs, indicating a positive market trend [2]. - The Hang Seng Index peaked at 27,058 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 6,461 points on September 18, 2025, marking the highest levels since July 2021 and November 2021 respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts has released global liquidity, making the Hong Kong stock market an attractive investment option due to its valuation advantages [5]. - Southbound capital has accelerated its inflow into the Hong Kong market, with a cumulative net purchase exceeding 1.1 trillion HKD in 2025, providing significant liquidity support [9]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The latest Hong Kong Policy Address has introduced multiple measures aimed at boosting the stock market, including the establishment of an "AI Efficiency Enhancement Group" and initiatives to assist mainland tech companies in financing [12][13]. - The government is exploring various measures to optimize the market ecosystem, such as implementing T+1 settlement rules and promoting the return of Chinese concept stocks [16]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The article highlights three key potential sectors under the "Chinese technology narrative": electronics, new materials, and healthcare, emphasizing the importance of domestic substitution and technological innovation [19][21][22]. - Specific funds focusing on these sectors have shown impressive returns, with one fund in the electronics sector achieving a return of +59.01% over the past year [20].

Group 1: Market Overview - The current capital market is undergoing unprecedented changes and challenges, prompting investors to focus on optimizing asset allocation through professional research and analysis [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced fluctuations primarily driven by short-term investor sentiment rather than long-term investment decisions [5][6] - Despite recent adjustments, the Hong Kong market remains attractive due to its valuation advantages and strong linkage with the mainland economy [6][8] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment decisions should focus on companies' long-term financial performance and strategic competitiveness rather than short-term market fluctuations [7] - The investment philosophy emphasizes a balanced approach between growth and value, with a focus on sustainable long-term returns [11][15] - The "FOF 2.0" era is characterized by a shift from selecting individual fund managers to a more systematic, diversified asset allocation strategy [14][15] Group 3: Sector Insights - Key sectors for investment in the Hong Kong market include high-end manufacturing, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI-related technologies, with a particular focus on companies with global competitiveness [11][12][24] - The North Exchange market is highlighted for its unique advantages, including small market capitalization and specialization in innovative sectors, which provide high growth potential [22][24] Group 4: Performance Metrics - The North Exchange 50 Index has shown a year-to-date increase of over 45%, with certain funds achieving returns exceeding 110% [22][23] - The investment strategy in the North Exchange focuses on balancing growth and defensive positions, with a significant portion of the portfolio allocated to manufacturing [24][25] Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for the North Exchange remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth and the introduction of more quality companies [26][27] - Future investment strategies will focus on innovation, consumer trends, dividend-paying stocks, and sectors poised for recovery [27]