虽然美银的结构性观点保持不变，但最新进展给美银的基准情景带来了上行风险（基准情景即有效关税将稳定在 10% 左右）。特别是可能会有更多针 对特定行业的关税出台。不确定性和关税冲击的持续时间在延长。即使有特朗普看跌期权，关税可能也不会完全回到中美协议中 5 月份的低点。 7月22日，美银发布研究报告指出，美国最新的关税公告可能使有效税率提高约 5 个百分点。根据过去 12 个月的进口构成，美银估计有效税率将升至 近 16%（图表 1）。 有效关税税率大约提高 5 个百分点，将使美国财政赤字降低约 50 个基点，对于仍高于 GDP 6% 的赤字来说不算多，并且会给通胀带来约 30 个基点的 上行风险，给增长带来下行风险。 但最新的关税公告远非板上钉钉。相反，截止日期从 7 月 9 日延长至 8 月 1 日表明还有谈判的空间。尽管如此，由于滞胀冲击可能延续到 2026 年，美 联储更有可能按兵不动，这与美银与众不同的观点一致，即今年美联储不会降息。 截至 5 月，美银对有效关税的估计与实际征收的关税非常接近，总体有效关税税率为 9.6%。 不过，美银发现了一些差异。5 月份对中国的关税征收超过了美银的估计，实际计算 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Japanese economy and its currency, the yen, in the context of recent political developments and economic challenges [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Stagnation and Inflation Risks**: Japan is facing stagflation risks due to external trade war pressures and rising domestic food prices, particularly affecting the export of transportation equipment due to high tariffs, which has weakened overall export data and reduced residents' purchasing power [1][3]. - **Political Landscape**: Following the recent Senate elections, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority, leading to a mismatch in government power and legislative authority. This has raised concerns about fiscal discipline, as the opposition advocates for fiscal expansion and tax cuts, while the ruling party is cautious about increasing debt levels [1][3][4]. - **Monetary Policy Normalization**: The Bank of Japan's move towards normalizing monetary policy has resulted in rising long-term Japanese government bond yields, compounded by high U.S. bond yields, which exacerbates Japan's debt issues and raises market concerns about fiscal management [1][5]. - **Short-term Outlook for Yen Assets**: Yen assets are expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to weak economic fundamentals, stalled U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, and internal political instability. A recovery in market risk appetite is contingent on the resolution of election-related uncertainties and clarity on tax reduction policies [1][3][4]. - **Structural Opportunities in Specific Sectors**: Despite the overall economic challenges, there are structural investment opportunities in sectors such as high-end manufacturing, particularly semiconductors and communication equipment, which are expected to perform well due to policy support [1][6][8]. Additional Important Content - **Military Spending**: Japan's military spending has reached a historical high in the new fiscal year, which could benefit domestic stocks if the opposition pushes for tax cuts. This increase in military expenditure is also a factor to consider in the broader economic context [1][6]. - **Impact of Political Risks on Currency**: The yen's performance is influenced by multiple factors, including internal political risks and debt constraints. While there are concerns about long-term credit risks if the opposition promotes fiscal stimulus, the current political risks are deemed limited, reducing the likelihood of significant currency depreciation [2][7][9]. - **High-end Manufacturing Investment**: The ruling party's cautious fiscal approach does not extend to high-end manufacturing, where there is active investment, indicating potential growth in this sector despite broader economic weaknesses [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the Japanese economy and its currency dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has raised the S&P 500 index target price for the end of 2025 to 5600 points, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 20 times, while cautioning about historical seasonal patterns and macroeconomic indicators [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is facing stagflation risks, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.9% by July 2025 according to UN forecasts [1] - Core CPI and unemployment rates are projected to rise to 3% and 4.4%, respectively [1] - The Trump administration's tariffs, effective from April 2025, are disrupting global supply chains and causing a sharp decline in export growth in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Earnings and Valuation - The S&P 500 index's current valuation is considered high, with expected earnings growth of only 5% year-over-year for 2025, which is seen as insufficient compared to the current valuation levels [1] Sector Allocation - Jefferies recommends an overweight position in communication services (XLC.US) and utilities (XLU.US), while maintaining a neutral stance on real estate, information technology, financials (XLF.US), industrials (XLI.US), and healthcare (XLV.US) [2] - A reduction in holdings is suggested for energy (XLE.US), consumer discretionary (XLY.US), and materials (XLB.US) sectors, reflecting a preference for stable cash flow areas amid macroeconomic uncertainty [2] Geopolitical Considerations - Trump's tariff policies are reshaping global trade dynamics, forcing traditional allies like the EU and Japan to adjust their strategies, with Japan even postponing planned talks to resist defense spending pressures [2] - Geopolitical instability and policy reversals are increasing market concerns regarding cyclical sectors such as non-essential consumer goods [2]

华尔街笼罩在鹰翼之下：美联储与白宫的博弈 美元指数在98.60点附近微微颤抖，反映着交易员们此刻的焦虑。窗外，美国30年期国债收益率 stubbornly 坚挺在5%以上，市场正用真金白银押注一个"长期 高利率"的未来。 会议室内，美联储主席鲍威尔凝视着面前的三份文件，如同三座大山压得他喘不过气：达拉斯联储主席洛根的鹰派演讲稿，显示通胀再度 抬头的6月经济数据，以及白宫发来的正式通知——启动下一任美联储主席遴选程序。这三份文件，预示着一场风暴即将来临。 洛根在演讲中罕见地使用了"创伤"一词来描述当前的风险，她警告说，如果重蹈1970年代的覆辙，美国可能会陷入数年的滞胀噩梦。但她也承认，过度延迟 降息可能会造成"就业市场超调"。这种看似矛盾的表述，恰恰揭示了美联储当前的困境：一边是关税推高的通胀，一边是总统要求的降息，中间是随时可能 崩盘的市场。 无论谁最终坐在美联储主席的位置上，都将面临这场艰难的抉择，这无疑是一场在刀尖上跳舞的博弈。 " 洛根的演讲，也暴露出美联储内部的严重分歧。最新公布的6月会议纪要显示，官员们分裂成三大阵营：少数派主张立即降息；多数派担忧关税引发通胀而 倾向于观望；而强硬派则认为2025 ...

Group 1 - The potential default on U.S. Treasury bonds could lead to a collapse of the dollar's credit system and a weakening of its status as a global reserve currency, resulting in a loss of trust in the dollar and a shift towards alternative assets like gold and the yuan [1][3] - The process of de-dollarization may accelerate, with countries like Saudi Arabia pushing for oil trade settlements in non-dollar currencies, further diminishing the dollar's dominance in global commodity pricing [3][6] - A global financial crisis could ensue, characterized by a liquidity crisis and asset price collapse, as U.S. Treasury yields surge, increasing global borrowing costs and making corporate financing more difficult [3][5] Group 2 - Hedge funds and pension funds with significant exposure to U.S. Treasuries may face bankruptcy, and the risk of bank runs could re-emerge, leading to systemic liquidity shortages [5][6] - Emerging market countries may experience heightened debt repayment pressures and an increased risk of sovereign debt defaults due to the depreciation of the dollar, which could trigger volatility in commodity prices [5][6] - The U.S. economy may fall into a "stagflation" scenario, with rising unemployment and shrinking consumer spending, compounded by the dollar's depreciation driving up import prices [6][8] Group 3 - Long-term structural risks persist, even if a default is avoided, as the U.S. faces unsustainable fiscal policies, with federal debt projected to reach 180% of GDP by 2050 and interest payments consuming a growing share of tax revenues [10] - Credit ratings for U.S. debt have been downgraded by major rating agencies, leading to a long-term increase in financing costs [10] - A default on U.S. debt could trigger a credit crisis for the dollar, a global financial tsunami, and a geopolitical realignment, with even a technical default exposing the unsustainable fiscal situation [10]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policies, indicating a significant "hawk-dove" debate [1][5] - Dallas Fed President Logan's strong stance suggests that the current interest rate level of 4.25% may persist for 6 to 12 months, providing theoretical support for high interest rate policies despite a slight decline in inflation data [1][5] - Political pressure is mounting as President Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell and calls for immediate interest rate cuts, which could influence the Fed's decision-making process [1][3] Group 2 - The global trade landscape is volatile, with the Trump administration imposing high tariffs on several countries, while simultaneously lifting tariffs on China, leading to unpredictable market reactions [3][5] - Employment data shows a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, but private sector job growth nearly stagnant when excluding certain sectors [5][7] - Market indicators are fluctuating, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 75% to 54.4%, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [5][7] Group 3 - Gold prices are hovering around $3,330, while the dollar index has fallen below 97, marking a new low since February 2022, indicating shifts in investor sentiment [7] - The stock market is reacting unevenly, with the Nasdaq reaching a historical high while the Dow Jones experienced a significant drop of 436 points, showcasing the divergent performance of technology stocks [7] - Economists at the New York Fed are analyzing the complexities of the Fed's June meeting minutes to navigate the challenges of inflation, employment, and economic resilience [7][5]

Core Economic Indicators - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, reaching 111.4, marking the seventh consecutive month of inflation above 3% [1] - The increase in food prices, particularly grains and processed foods, remains the primary driver of inflation, with ordinary japonica rice prices soaring nearly 100% and coffee beans rising by 40.2% [1] Economic Challenges - Wage growth has lagged behind inflation, with average wage growth at only 1.8%, leading to a decline in household consumption willingness and potentially exacerbating a "stagflation" cycle [2] - Over 60% of households have reduced non-essential spending, indicating a significant impact on consumer behavior due to rising living costs [2] Policy Responses - Government measures, such as gasoline retail subsidies, have slightly eased inflationary pressures by lowering energy costs, while a reduction in public high school tuition has contributed to a 0.2 percentage point decrease in CPI [1][2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy despite inflation exceeding its 2% target, as weak wage growth and global economic slowdown present a dilemma for policymakers [2] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Japan must balance controlling imported inflation, stimulating wage growth, and resolving trade disputes to avoid the looming threat of stagflation impacting economic recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth to slow down in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Drivers - Tariff impacts are not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported heavily in Q1 to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventories. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will have to resume imports, likely passing tariff costs onto consumers [2]. - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may push up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. - Moderate fiscal policy expansion is anticipated to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth over the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [3]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the temporary personal income tax cuts from 2017 permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [5]. - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain above 6% of GDP in the coming years, with government debt reaching about 100% of GDP, and interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable [5]. - Changes in the buyer structure of U.S. debt, with reduced purchases from foreign central banks and increased sensitivity from private investors, may lead to greater volatility in bond yields [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [6]. Group 5: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit may limit its performance [7]. - Concerns about the potential appointment of a "shadow Fed chair" by Trump could add uncertainty to monetary policy, as this individual might influence market expectations and complicate the current Fed chair's policy-making [8].

Group 1 - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell multiple times, indicating dissatisfaction with his performance and suggesting the possibility of dismissal [1][3] - Trump's economic advisor Hassett claimed that the President has the authority to fire Powell, citing mismanagement of a renovation project that saw costs rise from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [1] - Powell defended the renovation as necessary for safety and emphasized the constitutional protection of the Federal Reserve's independence [1] Group 2 - Trump has not planned to fire Powell but retains the option, criticizing Powell for not lowering interest rates [3] - Current economic data does not support a rate cut, and Trump's tariffs are causing price increases in consumer goods, which could lead to inflation exceeding 5% by 2026 [3] - The Federal Reserve prioritizes stabilizing the U.S. economy and the dollar over political pressures, as yielding to such pressures could undermine its credibility [5] Group 3 - Powell's resistance to political pressure is seen as a defense of professional rationality against short-sighted political demands [8] - Trump's motivation for requesting rate cuts is to reduce interest payments on the national debt of $36 trillion, which could create a false economic prosperity ahead of midterm elections [8] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for global economic stability, and any political interference could lead to significant financial repercussions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth slowing down in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve is likely to be cautious regarding interest rate cuts, which may occur later and be smaller than market expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Rising Inflation - The impact of tariffs is not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported significantly in the first quarter to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventory levels. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will need to import again, potentially passing on tariff costs to consumers [4]. - Stricter immigration policies have led to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may drive up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [4]. - Moderate fiscal policies are expected to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [4]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [5]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the 2017 temporary personal income tax cuts permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion in the next decade. This level of fiscal stimulus is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [8]. - The U.S. government debt has reached about 100% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable. The buyer structure of U.S. debt has shifted, with foreign central banks reducing their purchases, leading to increased volatility in bond yields [8]. - Long-term solutions to the debt issue may require fiscal consolidation, which could involve spending cuts, tax increases, or new tax sources. Alternatively, forced purchases of more government bonds or quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could lead to inflation [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Outside the U.S., other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [9]. - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit will constrain its performance [9]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates could lead to rising inflation, causing foreign investors to lose confidence in U.S. assets, which may result in higher long-term interest rates and a weaker dollar [11]. - The possibility of appointing a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" by Trump could create additional uncertainty in monetary policy, complicating the current Fed Chair Powell's role and the FOMC's decision-making process [11].