1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 27, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1154.0, down 3.87%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The macro - situation shows that China's single - month electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh in July. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 27, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1669.5, down 2.82%. The mainstream coke enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase for coke. The macro - situation indicates that during the "14th Five - Year Plan", China's energy supply was sufficient, stable in price, resilient, and high in "green content". Fundamentally, the demand side shows high iron - water production, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream with an overall increase in total inventory. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1154.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1669.50 yuan/ton, down 11.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 912715.00 lots, up 4544.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 47368.00 lots, down 270.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 128949.00 lots, up 4501.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5217.00 lots, up 154.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 142.50 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 69.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal: 985.00 yuan/ton, up 37.00 yuan; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1570.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 105.50 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 146.00 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 314 independent coal washing plants' clean coal output: 26.00 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; 314 independent coal washing plants' clean coal inventory: 289.50 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2]. - 314 independent coal washing plants' capacity utilization rate: 0.37%, up 0.00%; raw coal output: 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; 523 coking coal mines' daily average raw coal output: 191.20 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - 16 ports' imported coking coal inventory: 450.45 million tons, up 2.67 million tons; 18 ports' coke inventory: 268.62 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' total coking coal inventory: 966.41 million tons, down 10.47 million tons; independent coking enterprises' total coke inventory: 64.37 million tons, up 1.86 million tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory: 812.31 million tons, up 6.51 million tons; 247 steel mills' coke inventory: 609.59 million tons, down 0.21 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' available days of coking coal: 13.07 days, up 0.10 days; 247 steel mills' available days of coke: 10.76 days, down 0.07 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate: 74.42%, up 0.08% [2]. - Independent coking plants' profit per ton of coke: 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; coke output: 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.34%, down 0.23%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate: 90.27%, up 0.03% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump announced to "fire" the current Federal Reserve governor, and the Fed's independence is facing an "unprecedented" impact [2]. - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on India starting Wednesday, and Modi implemented tax cuts and administrative reforms [2]. - By the end of 2024, China's overseas investment stock exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, accounting for 7.2% of global foreign investment [2]. - In July, China's single - month electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh, and the power supply is stable after the peak - summer period [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - For coking coal, on August 27, the 2601 contract closed lower. The macro situation shows stable power supply, and fundamentally, the mine - end inventory has changed, with imports' cumulative growth rate declining. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For coke, on August 27, the 2601 contract closed lower. The macro situation indicates stable energy supply, and fundamentally, the demand is high, and the inventory has shifted downstream. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 26, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1160.5, down 3.17%. The market sentiment declined and commodities corrected. In the short - term, there was repeated movement between long and short positions. The inventory at the mine end changed from a decrease to an increase, and the cumulative import growth rate had been declining for 3 consecutive months. The inventory level was moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line was between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it was expected to move in a range [2]. - On August 26, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1681.0, down 2.41%. The mainstream coking enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase for coke. From January to July 2025, the global crude steel production was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal production was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons. The inventory at the coal mine end was no longer under pressure and was transferred downstream, and the total coking coal inventory generally increased. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it was expected to move in a range [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1160.50 yuan/ton, down 55.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1681.00 yuan/ton, down 55.00. The JM futures contract open interest was 908171.00 lots, down 9991.00; the J futures contract open interest was 47638.00 lots, down 1368.00. The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 114943.00 lots, down 472.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5563.00 lots, down 781.00. The JM1 - 9 contract spread was 129.50 yuan/ton, down 24.50; the J1 - 9 contract spread was 71.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 820.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 948.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, up 120.00; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 139.50 yuan/ton, up 55.00; the basis of the J main contract was 94.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 tons, down 0.70; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 294.80 tons, down 2.20. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00; the raw coal output was 38098.70 tons, down 4008.70. The import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 tons, up 257.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.20 tons, up 3.30. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 450.45 tons, up 2.67; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 268.62 tons, down 1.09 [2]. 3.4 National Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 966.41 tons, down 10.47; the total inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 64.37 tons, up 1.86. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 812.31 tons, up 6.51; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 609.59 tons, down 0.21. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 13.07 days, up 0.10; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 10.76 days, down 0.07. The import volume of coking coal was 962.30 tons, up 53.11; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 tons, up 38.00. The output of coking coal was 4064.38 tons, down 5.89; the output of coke was 4185.50 tons, up 15.20. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, up 0.08; the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03. The crude steel output was 7965.82 tons, down 352.58 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On January 25, mainstream coking enterprises proposed an eighth - round price increase for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for dry - quenched coke. According to the oral notice of the environmental protection department in Henan Province, coking enterprises in the province will implement self - restricted production from August 25 to September 3, with a preliminary estimated restriction range of 20 - 35%. Some enterprises have already implemented a 30 - 35% restriction, and other enterprises will gradually follow. Zheng Shanjie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, chaired a symposium to listen to opinions and suggestions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Shanghai optimized and adjusted real estate policies, including unrestricted housing purchases outside the outer ring for eligible resident families, and adult single individuals are subject to the same housing purchase restriction policy as resident families. Eligible non - local resident families are temporarily exempt from property tax for their first - purchased housing [2].

Core Insights - The domestic peanut market experienced slight fluctuations with a small increase in prices this week, with futures and spot markets showing different trends [1] Futures Market - The peanut 2511 futures contract closed at 7802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.3% compared to last week [1] Spot Market - In the Nanyang region of Henan, the basis for PK11 was +1738, an increase of 860 from last week - In Linyi, Shandong, the basis for PK11 was +338, a decrease of 40 from last week - In Hengshui, Hebei, the basis for PK11 was +938, an increase of 360 from last week [1] Inventory and Supply - As of August 21, the peanut oil inventory in sample enterprises was 83,200 tons, a decrease of 630 tons from last week - This week, the oil mills received 0 tons of new arrivals, with high prices for new rice leading to a cautious market outlook [1] Rice Market - The national average price for commercial rice as of August 21 was 8420 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.23% from last week - The market is primarily focused on depleting old rice stocks, with no significant increase in pre-holiday stocking demand [1] Market Sentiment - The peanut market remains stable with cautious attitudes from buyers and sellers, as the transition from old to new crops continues - The negotiation space for old rice has increased, while the supply of new rice is limited, leading to selective purchasing by processing plants [1]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - **Ribbed Bars**: The main contract futures price of ribbed bars fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.35%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply - demand on both sides is stable, industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure. However, the increase in cost may limit the downward space. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The main contract futures price of hot - rolled coils fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.86%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply and demand on both sides are rising, and the demand shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. With the support of cost increase and production restriction disturbances, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract futures price of iron ore weakened with a daily decline of 0.71%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. The demand for ore is at a high level with good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restriction disturbances are continuous, weakening the positive effects. On the contrary, the supply has returned to a high level, and the fundamentals of ore are weakening. The over - valued ore price will continue to be under pressure and adjust through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3) Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - **Consumption Market**: In July 2025, commodity retail sales increased by 4.0% year - on - year, with the retail sales of above - quota units increasing by 3.1%. From January to July, commodity retail sales increased by 4.9%. The policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones continued to be effective. The retail sales of household appliances, furniture, communication equipment, and cultural and office supplies of above - quota units increased by 28.7%, 20.6%, 14.9%, and 13.8% respectively. In July, passenger car retail sales increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and new - energy passenger car retail sales increased by 12.0% with a penetration rate of 54%. Upgraded products maintained rapid growth [6]. - **Mechanical Industry**: From January to July, the added values of the five major industries in the mechanical industry increased year - on - year. General equipment manufacturing increased by 8.3%, special equipment manufacturing by 3.8%, automobile manufacturing by 10.9%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 11.9%, and instrument and meter manufacturing by 7.1%. In terms of fixed - asset investment, general equipment manufacturing increased by 14.8%, special equipment manufacturing by 4.6%, automobile manufacturing by 21.7%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing decreased by 8.7%, and instrument and meter manufacturing decreased by 16.3%. The cumulative output of metal - cutting machine tools was 480,000 units, an increase of 13.9% year - on - year; the cumulative output of industrial robots was 447,000 sets, an increase of 32.9% year - on - year; and the cumulative output of solar cells was 47,3960,000 kilowatts, an increase of 19.6% year - on - year [7]. - **Iron Ore Joint Venture**: The state - owned mining company SNIM of Mauritania and the Saudi Arabian steel company Hadeed will jointly establish a joint venture to develop an iron ore mine in Mauritania with an annual production target of 12 - 14 million tons. The two countries plan to enhance trade through direct transportation routes, and the Islamic Development Bank has allocated $315 million for infrastructure construction [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of ribbed bars (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280, 3,270, and 3,337 respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, and 5. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,400, 3,360, and 3,459 respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, and 16. The price of Tangshan billets was 3,020 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,120 with no change. The coil - to - ribbed bar price difference was 120 with no change, and the ribbed bar - to - scrap price difference was 1,160, a decrease of 20 [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 767, a decrease of 3; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 8.89, a decrease of 0.29; from Brazil was 23.24, a decrease of 0.49. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.49, an increase of 0.23, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 100.80, an increase of 0.20 [9]. Futures Market - **Ribbed Bars**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,119 with a decline of 0.35%. The highest price was 3,127, the lowest was 3,106, the trading volume was 801,286 (a decrease of 323,893), and the open interest was 1,411,603 (a decrease of 46,508) [13]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,361 with a decline of 0.86%. The highest price was 3,374, the lowest was 3,350, the trading volume was 498,652 (a decrease of 73,892), and the open interest was 998,147 (a decrease of 49,335) [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 770.0 with a decline of 0.71%. The highest price was 774.5, the lowest was 766.0, the trading volume was 227,341 (a decrease of 54,414), and the open interest was 452,625 (an increase of 1,051) [13]. Future Outlook - **Ribbed Bars**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, inventory continues to accumulate. The weekly output decreased by 58,000 tons, and the demand is at a low level. Although the cost increase may limit the downward space, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Both supply and demand are rising. The weekly output increased by 96,500 tons, and the demand shows good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. With the support of cost increase and production restriction disturbances, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is at a high level with good resilience, but steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restriction disturbances are continuous. The supply has returned to a high level, and the ore price will continue to be under pressure and adjust through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Unilateral: BR is expected to move upward in a consolidation phase; Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - The domestic butadiene market showed minor fluctuations this period. Affected by partial plant maintenance and reduced operation, domestic butadiene production decreased. Although inventory increased due to ship arrivals, there was no significant pressure on the supply side. Meanwhile, the relatively good operation of downstream industries provided some support to the market [3] - The domestic cis - butadiene rubber supply maintained an increase. The market was influenced by macro - capital speculation and the significant trend of natural rubber. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's cis - butadiene rubber increased slightly. However, at the end of the period, due to rapid capital withdrawal from the futures market and some uncertain rumors about the upstream supply in China and South Korea, the futures and spot markets fluctuated widely [3] Price and Spread - **Futures Market**: The closing price of BR2510.SHF was 11,715 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 11,790 yuan/ton, up 2.03%. The trading volume was 106,881 lots, down 36.78%; the open interest was 38,436 lots, down 62,183 lots or 36.78% [3] - **Spot Market**: The prices of domestic butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of butadiene in Shandong was 9,400 - 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber in different brands and regions also had certain differences [3] - **Futures Spread**: There were various changes in monthly spreads, cross - month spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For example, the spread between the second and third contracts of BR increased by 200% to 5 yuan/ton [3] Operation Strategy - Unilateral: BR is expected to move upward in a consolidation phase; Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy for asphalt is rated as "oscillating weakly." There are no specific ratings provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows a narrow - range fluctuation on the盘面, and weak demand suppresses the spot market. The current supply - demand pattern of asphalt remains weak. Under the influence of weather and capital factors, the improvement of rigid demand is weak, speculative demand is also weak, the de - stocking of social inventory is weaker than the seasonal level, and overall supply is relatively abundant, which suppresses the sentiment on the spot side. If oil prices continue to fall in the future, asphalt market prices will also decline further. In the short term, attention should be paid to the additional disturbances to the oil market sentiment caused by the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 21, the closing price of the main BU2510 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,465 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 211,461 lots, a decrease of 6,077 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 123,366 lots, a decrease of 22,655 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,380 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,460 - 3,530 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China. The prices in the Northwest and Northeast markets remained generally stable yesterday, while asphalt spot prices in other regions declined to varying degrees [1] - Recently, the oil price has been weak, and combined with the average fundamentals of asphalt itself, the market has been oscillating weakly. Although the oil price rebounded slightly yesterday and the BU盘面 stabilized, the fluctuation range was still narrow [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the monthly spread of the near - month asphalt futures, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 22 日 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：小幅下跌 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20590 | રેર | -125 | 160 | 1125 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20720 | ー | l | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2593 | 16 | -31 | 10 | 213 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 124523 | -3645 | 26534 | 20928 | -142219 | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Corn**: Domestically, new corn in the Northeast will be listed in September, leading to increased willingness of grain holders to sell and reduced trade - grain inventory. However, the market supply is relatively loose due to the release of rotation grain and continuous auctions of imported corn. Processing enterprises rely on contract grain or inventory, with insufficient procurement and limited demand support. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the resumption of operations of previously - shut - down enterprises, the supply pressure has increased. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated bearishly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract of corn futures is 2170 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 75 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 937236 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 102120 lots, a decrease of 8778 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 110775 lots, a decrease of 2706 lots [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 193999 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22794 lots, an increase of 39 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots, with no change [2]. - **CS - C Spread**: The spread of the main contract CS - C is 351 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price of the active contract is 403 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3.5 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1549876 contracts, a decrease of 67625 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133174 contracts, a decrease of 25206 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2384.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.66 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all with no change; the basis of the main contract is 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton [2]. - **Substitute**: The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Production and Sowing Area**: The predicted yields of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The sowing areas of the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively. The US yield prediction has decreased by 2.92 million tons, and the sowing area has decreased by 0.25 million hectares [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 75.1 million tons, 247 million tons, and 340.2 million tons respectively, all showing decreases; the import volume is 6 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production of feed is 2937.7 million tons, an increase of 175.6 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 13.28 tons [2]. - **Processing Profit**: The processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 113 yuan/ton, - 56 yuan/ton, and - 46 yuan/ton respectively, all showing improvements [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Consumption and Inventory**: The consumption of deep - processed corn is 114.06 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons; the inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 42% and 52.3% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.7 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.91%, an increase of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 5.88%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 9.46% and 9.45% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The ProFarmer organization conducted an annual inspection of crops in the Midwest. In Ohio, the corn yield potential is at the highest level in at least 22 years, but drought may limit the yield at the autumn harvest. In South Dakota, the corn yield per unit area is at the highest level since 2020 due to sufficient moisture. The increase in planting area and yield per unit area has led to significant increases in the US corn yield and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season, causing the international corn price to decline [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, ICE cotton futures prices are rising with short - term volatility. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, and spot prices and basis are firm. On the demand side, it's the off - season for textile consumption, spinning mills have no profit, the overall operating rate is declining, and raw material purchases are mainly for rigid demand, hoping for demand improvement in the "Golden September and Silver October". In 2025, China's cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crops. Overall, tight supply of old crops supports price fluctuations, but expected increase in new crop output and weak downstream demand limit the upside. The market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,055 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,065 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 47,867 lots, an increase of 11,592 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 266 lots, an increase of 194 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 478,466 lots, down 10,082 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 22,149 lots, an increase of 235 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 7,455 lots, down 141 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 69 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,593 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,349 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan. - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 22,045 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 23,923 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,460 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 857,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. - Monthly import volume of cotton is 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 894 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.1898 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, down 79 million meters; monthly yarn output is 2.065 million tons, an increase of 114,000 tons. - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 10.4955 million US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 44.4198 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options is 10.44%, down 0.4%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options is 10.46%, down 0.36%. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.57%, up 0.17%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.68%, up 0.02% [2] Industry News - India has suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30. On Tuesday, the ICE December cotton contract closed down 0.46%. On Wednesday, the cotton 2601 contract closed down 0.5%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.45% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures are expected to experience a downward oscillatory adjustment, seeking support at 4,500 ringgit. Domestic palm oil futures may continue to strengthen towards the 9,800 - 10,000 yuan range [1]. - CBOT soybean oil is showing a回调 trend due to the end of the fuel demand peak season in the US and geopolitical factors. However, domestic soybean oil market basis quotes are supported by potential downstream demand [1]. Sugar - Raw sugar is likely to face resistance at 17 cents per pound. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillatory and slightly weak, with attention on the pressure around 5,700 [3]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, while facing pressure after the new cotton is listed due to expected stable - to - increasing production [4]. Pigs - Spot pig prices have stabilized, but future prices are still not optimistic due to expected increased supply. For far - month contracts, short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [5]. Corn - The corn market is expected to remain oscillatory and weak due to increased supply expectations. In the medium term, the futures price may move towards the new - season cost [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to maintain a bearish trend due to sufficient supply and average downstream digestion speed [12]. Meal - The bottom range of meal has shifted upwards, with an overall upward trend. It is advisable to choose the right time to go long [15]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu was 8,830 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; palm oil spot price in Guangdong was 9,710 yuan, up 140 yuan from August 18; rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan, unchanged [1]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread showed different changes. The inventory of soybean oil and palm oil in China had different trends [1]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, domestic sugar futures prices declined slightly, while spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The import cost of Brazilian sugar decreased [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased [3]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, domestic cotton futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices showed minor changes. The basis between spot and futures had different fluctuations [4]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial and industrial inventories decreased, and the import volume increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased [4]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, futures prices of live pigs increased slightly, and spot prices in different regions showed different changes [5]. - **Industry Data**: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [5]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, corn futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices remained stable. The basis increased [7]. - **Industry Data**: Corn starch futures prices declined, and the inventory of corn decreased [7]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, egg futures prices declined, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased. The basis increased [11]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings and the price of culled chickens decreased [11]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices remained unchanged. The basis of some contracts decreased [15]. - **Industry Data**: The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal continued to rise [15].