商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20251215 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.534 | 5. 586 | -52 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5,540 | 5.520 | +20 | | | | 成交量(手) | 482, 936 | 833.491 | -350, 555 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 204. 480 | 204. 699 | -219 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 198, 979 | 198, 115 | +864 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -18, 685 | -13, 750 | -4.935 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 66 | 14 | +52 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -884 | -936 | +52 | | | 月差 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product [2]. - Overall, the market shows a mixed trend, with some products in a high - level or low - level shock state, while others face supply - demand pressures or have short - term rebound opportunities. Summary by Product PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level shock market. Demand is seasonally weakening, but supply remains tight. The upside space is limited due to weakening demand and the end of the blending logic. The recommended operation range is 6550 - 7000, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][10]. - **PTA**: In a high - level shock market. The cost - side PX supply is tight, but polyester is accumulating inventory and incurring losses, so the upside space is limited. The recommended operation range is 4500 - 4800, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][11]. - **MEG**: The unexpected load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below. The price has reached the cost line of most production devices, and some factories have stopped operating [2][11]. Rubber - In a shock operation state. The price has a small increase, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is neutral [12]. Synthetic Rubber - The shock center moves up. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, and the supply of butadiene has decreased marginally. The industry is under pressure but supported by valuation [15][18]. Asphalt - Affected by the rising situation in Venezuela. The price shows a shock trend, with changes in production capacity utilization and inventory in different regions [19][30]. LLDPE - Unilateral decline, with limited basis strengthening. The futures price is under pressure, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure from high - capacity and weak demand needs to be concerned in the medium term [33][34]. PP - Under upstream selling pressure, with the price difference between powder and granular materials inverted. The cost support is limited, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Short - term rebound, but still under pressure later. Although the futures price rebounded due to macro and alumina factors, it is still in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the demand is difficult to support [40][41]. Pulp - In a wide - range shock state. The upward momentum comes from external cost and supply tightening expectations, while the downward pressure comes from high domestic inventory and weak terminal demand [44][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price has a slight decline, and the spot price shows mixed trends in different regions. The northern region is affected by snowfall [52]. Methanol - Shock rebound. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved. However, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a price limit above, while the cost provides support below [54][58]. Urea - Short - term shock operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The policy and cost form a support below, and there is a pressure level above [60][62]. Styrene - Short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in a shock state, with weak current situation and strong future expectations. The styrene downstream is in a high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit pattern [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is flat, with poor procurement enthusiasm [67][68]. LPG - Short - term shock, with a downward trend in the long term. The price shows a shock trend, and there are changes in PDH and other operating rates [71][72]. Propylene - Short - term narrow - range adjustment. The price and relevant operating rates show certain changes [72]. PVC - Low - level shock. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and there is a short - term rebound expectation, but the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [80][81]. Fuel Oil - The night - session rebounds, temporarily getting rid of the weak state. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than the high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounds slightly [83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Short - term sentiment is optimistic, and it is in a medium - term shock market. The freight rate index shows an upward trend, and there are changes in shipping capacity and schedules [85]. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Medium - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short short - fiber/bottle - chip positions. The futures prices are in a low - level shock state, and the spot prices show certain changes [94][95]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price is stable, and the market demand is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [97][98]. Pure Benzene - Short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and overseas market conditions [102][103].

Report 1: Steel Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a trend of mills reducing production and destocking, with iron - water production decreasing and raw material inventory accumulating, which drags down steel prices. The market's concern about export bottlenecks also affects steel prices. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to move within a range. Consider closing the short position on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread in the January contract and re - participating in shorting the rebar to iron ore ratio in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 48, 46, and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 30, 0, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts dropped by 44, 44, and 37 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab price remained unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 9 yuan/ton. - Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes. For example, East China rebar profit increased by 31 yuan/ton, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average iron - water production decreased by 30,000 tons to 2.293 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 227,000 tons to 8.062 million tons, a decline of 2.7%. - Rebar output decreased by 105,000 tons to 1.788 million tons, a decline of 5.6%. - Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.087 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 335,000 tons to 13.321 million tons, a decline of 2.5%. - Rebar inventory decreased by 243,000 tons to 4.795 million tons, a decline of 4.8%. - Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 3.971 million tons, a decline of 0.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 22,000 tons to 92,000 tons, a decline of 19.3%. - The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 245,000 tons to 8.397 million tons, a decline of 2.8%. - The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 139,000 tons to 2.031 million tons, a decline of 6.4%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.12 million tons, a decline of 0.9% [1]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish. With mills continuing to reduce production, iron - water production declining, and the market weakening, the iron ore valuation is likely to decline. It is recommended to short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The basis of 01 contract for different iron ore powders showed different changes. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 2.188 million tons to 24.805 million tons, a decline of 8.1%. - The global weekly shipping volume increased by 454,000 tons to 33.686 million tons, a rise of 1.4%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 5.006 million tons to 111.309 million tons, a decline of 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons, a decline of 1.3%. - The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 85,000 tons to 3.185 million tons, a decline of 2.6%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49,700 tons to 65.549 million tons, a decline of 0.8%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 1.493 million tons to 71.997 million tons, a decline of 2.0% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 482,000 tons to 153.4898 million tons, a rise of 0.3%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills increased by 42,300 tons to 89.847 million tons, a rise of 0.5%. - The inventory available days of 64 mills increased by 1 day to 20 days, a rise of 5.3% [3]. Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke market is weakening, with supply and demand turning unfavorable. The coke futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 1450 - 1600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is also facing downward pressure. The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile and bearish, with a recommended operating range of 950 - 1100 yuan/ton. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased by 36 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%, and the 05 contract decreased by 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.6%. - The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 29 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.0%, and the 05 contract decreased by 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.3%. - The profit of sample coal mines decreased by 16 yuan/ton on a weekly basis [4]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The daily average output of 247 mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons. - Coking coal production: The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased. The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [4]. Demand - Coke demand: The iron - water production of 247 mills decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decline of 1.3%. - Coking coal demand: The coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showed a slight decline [4]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 20.8 tons to 903.8 tons, a rise of 2.4%. The inventories of all - sample coking plants, 247 mills, and ports showed different changes. - Coking coal inventory: The inventories of Fenwei coal mines, all - sample coking plants, and ports increased, while the inventory of 247 mills decreased [4]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 2.5 tons to - 1.9 tons, a change of 31.3% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure if they cannot hold above 4,100 ringgit, with support at 4,000 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures could break down due to bearish fundamentals, with support around 8,000 yuan. - Soybean oil: The US EIA has lowered its forecasts for renewable diesel production in 2025 and 2026. However, the Fed's potential rate cuts and the rebound of BMD palm oil support CBOT soybean oil. In China, the spot basis is shifting to the May contract, and the first - quarter soybean imports are expected to decrease, which may reduce factory soybean oil inventories [1]. Meals - US soybeans: Lack trading highlights, with slow - growing Chinese demand and high crushing demand. South American new crops are progressing well with strong harvest expectations. The market is not optimistic about medium - to - long - term US soybean prices. - Domestic soybean meal: The loose supply pattern continues, but the market is speculating on longer soybean customs clearance times, and the 1 - 5 positive spread has strengthened. The spot pressure remains, but the future supply is expected to tighten [2]. Pigs - The market has some reluctance to sell, and the spot price is stable. The southern curing demand is increasing, but there are uncertainties in the December - January market due to the potential impact of the epidemic and secondary fattening. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is hard to improve. The futures market is struggling to rise and has fallen in the past two days [4]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure below 15 cents per pound. Indian sugar production in Maharashtra is increasing. The overall raw sugar price is bearish. In China, the sugar price is weak due to the accelerated sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan, and the market is expected to remain in a weak - oscillating pattern [8][9]. Corn - North port corn prices rose slightly due to insufficient arrivals, while prices in the Northeast and North China were stable to weak. The demand side is cautious, with deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly making purchases based on rigid needs. The short - term corn futures are expected to oscillate, and the follow - up supply volume should be monitored [10]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, although the November national laying - hen inventory decreased slightly. The market has a normal sales speed, but the demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [14]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to weak US export demand. In China, Zhengzhou cotton faces increasing hedging pressure during the price increase, but the downstream demand is relatively strong, and the price decline space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the 14,000 pressure level [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,600 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 8,268 yuan, up 0.56%. The basis was 328 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,964 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan on December 11, up 0.46%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,656 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis was - 75.51%. The import cost was 9,102.8 yuan, and the import profit was - 447 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,000 yuan on December 11, up 3.09%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,443 yuan, up 1.65%. The basis was 401 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 3,490 [1]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,060 yuan on December 11, up 0.66%. The futures price of M2605 was 2,750 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 310 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 23,830 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,410 yuan on December 11, up 1.26%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,323 yuan, down 0.26%. The basis was 87 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,173 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was - 233 yuan [2]. Pigs - **Futures**: The futures price of LH2605 was 11,820 yuan on December 11, down 0.17%. The futures price of LH2603 was 11,220 yuan, down 0.80%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 600 yuan, down 13.21%. The main - contract positions increased by 3.54% to 154,716, and the warehouse receipts increased by 40.21% to 523 [4]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 11,360 yuan, up 60 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11,330 yuan, up 130 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 12,000 yuan, up 200 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11,390 yuan, up 90 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 12,460 yuan, unchanged; in Hunan, it was 11,160 yuan, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 11,660 yuan, up 160 yuan [4]. Sugar - **Futures**: The futures price of SR2601 was 5,358 yuan on December 11, up 0.56%. The futures price of SR2605 was 5,245 yuan, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 14.86 cents per pound, down 0.27%. The 1 - 5 spread was 113 yuan, up 9.71%. The main - contract positions increased by 62.10% to 391,467, and the warehouse receipts increased by 54.29% to 611 [8]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming was unchanged. The Nanning basis was 115 yuan, down 14.81%; the Kunming basis was 75 yuan, down 21.05%. The in - quota imported Brazilian sugar price was 4,100 yuan, up 2.07%, and the out - of - quota price was 5,195 yuan, up 2.12% [8]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of C2601 was 2,243 yuan on December 11, up 0.09%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,290 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis was 57 yuan, up 16.33%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 24 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of CS2601 was 2,523 yuan, down 0.36%. The Changchun and Weifang spot prices were unchanged. The basis was 67 yuan, up 15.52%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan, down 1.92% [10]. Eggs - **Futures**: The futures price of JD01 was 3,144 yuan on December 11, down 0.29%. The futures price of JD02 was 2,968 yuan, down 0.40%. The 1 - 2 spread was 176 yuan, up 1.73%. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.09 yuan per catty, up 0.64%. The basis was - 57 yuan, up 33.37% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The futures price of CF2605 was 13,850 yuan on December 11, up 0.65%. The futures price of CF2601 was 13,860 yuan, up 0.58%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 64.00 cents per pound, down 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan, up 50.00%. The main - contract positions decreased by 3.02% to 460,016, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.10% to 2,967 [16]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan, up 0.03%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,013 yuan, up 0.06%. The FC Index M 1% was 12,898 yuan, up 0.40% [16].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 | | | | | | 表1：12月11日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 1527 | 1525 | 1543 | 1488.5 | 1491.5 | -2.96% | 18,180 | 25,407 | -631 | -0.37 | | JM2605 | 1070 | 1065.5 | 10 ...

来源：市场资讯 作者： 李馨 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13860元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面， 3128B棉新疆到厂价14835元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨，现货基差CF01+975，较前一日变动-75； 3128B棉全国均价15013元/吨，较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF01+1153，较前一日变动-71。 近期市场资讯，近期巴基斯坦纱厂需求持续疲软，当地皮棉价格维持区间盘整。轧花厂仍惜售高等级库 存，部分低等级资源成交价较现行价格低500-1500卢比/莫恩德，为纱厂提供了补库良机。此外，纱厂 普遍反映经营压力重，纱线利润承压。10日卡拉奇棉花协会（KCA）2025/26年度现货价格稳定在15500 卢比/莫恩德。 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘白糖2605合约5245元/吨，较前一日变动-83元/吨，幅度-1.56%。现货方面，广西南 宁地区白糖现货价格5370元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，现货基差SR05+125，较前一日变动+83。云南 昆明地区白糖现货价格5340元 ...

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/11 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,712.00 | -12.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,418.00 | -16.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 643,609.00 | +13508 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports mainly present the latest data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures, and container shipping industry spot - futures. These data cover price changes, basis differences, and historical percentile positions, providing a basis for investors to understand market trends and make investment decisions. 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price - Spot Spreads**: For example, the IF price - spot spread was - 2.60, the IH price - spot spread was - 7.84, the IC price - spot spread was - 33.79, and the IM price - spot spread was 9.86 on the relevant day [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: There are detailed data on spreads between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month, far - month and current - month, etc. For instance, the IC next - month minus current - month spread was - 16.60 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 were 1.5584, with historical percentile positions provided, indicating their relative valuation levels [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: The 15 - contract IRR was 1.6378, and the basis of different bond futures contracts had various values and changes compared to the previous trading day. For example, the T basis was 1.4325 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract quarters such as the current - quarter and next - quarter, and next - quarter and far - quarter were reported. For example, the TF current - quarter minus next - quarter spread was - 0.0350 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures varieties like TS - TF were - 3.3690 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2602, AG2602, etc. showed price increases or decreases compared to the previous day. For example, the AU2602 contract price rose from 951.54 to 956.40, a 0.51% increase [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold, silver, and other spot prices also had corresponding changes. For instance, London gold rose from 4206.59 to 4227.65, a 0.50% increase [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, gold - silver ratios, etc. were presented. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures was - 5.27, and the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 68.46 [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, etc. had changes. Inventory data of precious metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX also showed different trends [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 1.72% from 1483.65 to 1509.10, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 50.71% from 1948.77 to 960.51. The SCFI comprehensive index increased by 0.69% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602 (main contract) and others had price changes, and the basis of the main contract changed by 41.01% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 0.01%, Shanghai port on - time rate decreased by 18.50%, and Shanghai port berthing increased by 5.83%. Monthly export amount increased by 8.19%. Overseas economic indicators such as the euro - zone comprehensive PMI increased by 0.57% [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report provides comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamentals [2][8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: High-level shock market, with cost support from rising crude oil prices and tight supply-demand situation. It's recommended to hold long PX and short BZ. There is a supply contraction expectation in the supply side, and the demand side has a certain gap under the high start - up mode of polyester. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips [4][8] - PTA: High-level shock market, with cost support from PX. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract, and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be vigilant about the negative feedback of the industrial chain due to the early holiday of terminals from late December to early January [9] - MEG: Short - term support due to the postponement of the restart plan of Shenghong Refining and Chemical and the unplanned load reduction of multiple units. The price has limited downside space at 3600 yuan/ton. In the medium term, it is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9] Rubber - The rubber market is in a shock operation. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The short - term price policy of most manufacturers remains stable, and the transaction has flexibility [11][12] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a range operation. As of December 10, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports also decreased. The market is in a situation of cautious price increase by suppliers and pressure on prices from downstream procurement [14][15][17] Asphalt - The asphalt market has a phased small - scale rebound due to geopolitical fluctuations. The weekly output increased this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [18][28] LLDPE - The LLDPE market shows a unilateral decline, and the basis weakens again. The futures market is under pressure, the upstream sells at a reduced price, and the demand is weak. The supply in the first quarter of 2026 may increase [29][30] PP - The PP market continues to be weak. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing inventory intensifies, the demand is weak, and the profit of PDH is at a low level. Pay attention to the marginal changes of PDH devices [31][32] Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short in the caustic soda market. The market has a pattern of high output and high inventory, the demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the cost has certain support, but the rebound is difficult [34][36] Pulp - The pulp market is in a shock - strengthening trend. The futures market trading volume increased, and the spot market has differentiation. The supply - demand pattern of the pulp and paper system is relatively loose, and it is recommended to pay attention to port inventory changes and futures market capital trends [39][41][43] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The floating glass price has minor fluctuations, the trading atmosphere in most regions is average, the demand is weak, and the supply inventory is high. Some production lines have a plan to stop production [46][47] Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure. The port inventory decreased significantly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. In the medium term, the high supply pressure of the 01 contract is the main contradiction, and the price upside space is limited [50][52] Urea - The urea market is in a shock operation. The enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The price has support from the decrease of explicit inventory, but there is policy pressure above, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern [54][55][57] Styrene - The styrene market is in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure of styrene is high, and the supply pressure is not large, and the port inventory is slightly reduced [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The market trend is stable, the output of enterprises is high, the new orders received are average, and the downstream demand is not so strong [62] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Wide - range shock under the disturbance of the cost side. Pay attention to the changes in CP prices and the start - up rate of related devices [65][70][71] - Propylene: There is an expectation of supply increase, and the upward driving force is limited. The start - up rate of PDH increased compared with the previous week [66] PVC - The PVC market is in a low - level shock. The price is at a historical low, and some devices have a reduction expectation due to large losses. However, in the short term, it still faces the pattern of high start - up and weak demand [74][75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Continued downward trend, with the center of the disk moving down [77] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weakened at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly [77] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The PA alliance's unexpected performance drives the sentiment to improve. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market. It is recommended to short the 2604 contract on rallies [79][90] Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip markets face medium - term pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies. The futures prices of short fiber and bottle chip are weak, and the spot prices are adjusted down [92][93] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see in the offset printing paper market. The prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the industry start - up level is high, and the market demand is light [95][96][98] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is in a short - term shock. The port inventory increased, and the current reality pressure is large. There is an expectation of supply contraction after January 2026, and the demand may improve [100][101]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 11 日 铝：继续震荡 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 美联储如期再降息 25 基点，但三票委反对，仍预计明年降息一次，将买短债 400 亿美元；鲍威尔： 购债规模未来几个月或维持在较高水平，劳动力市场逐步降温但慢于预期，目前利率下能耐心等待，关税影 响明年料逐渐消退。（华尔街见闻） | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21935 | 160 | -5 | 335 | 1390 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21960 | - | l | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2863 | 17 | -35 | ...