1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures remained at a low level overnight. The seasonal increase in supply pressure led to a pessimistic market sentiment. With the southern sugar mills in the peak crushing season, the seasonal increase in sugar supply is becoming more apparent. The unexpectedly high sugar imports in December suppressed the futures prices. On the spot market, prices were weak, and pre - holiday consumption showed no signs of improvement. It is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [2]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend overnight. Although the immediate profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the immediate cash flows of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, the inventory pressure of finished products is relatively limited. The operating rates of inland textile enterprises have decreased steadily, while those of Xinjiang textile enterprises remain strong. After the decline of Zhengzhou cotton prices, many textile enterprises locked in the basis for point - price trading. The rigid demand for cotton raw materials from textile enterprises still exists. In the short term, the expectation of production reduction has been reflected in the futures prices, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level. Buying opportunities on dips can be considered [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of sugar contracts SR2609, SR2605, and SR2603 were 5178, 5158, and 5163 respectively, with increases of 17, 14, and 20, and growth rates of 0.33%, 0.27%, and 0.39% respectively. The 11 - number sugar contracts 2603, 2607, and 2605 had previous day's closing prices of 14.96, 14.46, and 14.77 respectively, with increases of 0.19, 0.11, and 0.1, and growth rates of 1.29%, 0.77%, and 0.68% respectively. The trading volumes and positions of each contract also showed different changes [1]. - **Cotton Futures**: No detailed futures - market data about cotton is provided in the given content. 3.2 Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5340 and 5160 respectively. The basis for Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2509 are 177 and - 3 respectively. The current import prices of Brazilian sugar within and outside the quota are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and those of Thai sugar are 3847 and 4912 respectively [1]. - **Cotton Spot**: No relevant content provided 3.3 Industry Information - **Dairy and Beverage Data**: In December 2025, China's dairy production was 2.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The cumulative dairy production in 2025 was 29.503 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. In December 2025, China's beverage production was 13.421 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The cumulative beverage production in 2025 was 179.253 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [2]. - **Sugar Production Data**: In December 2025, China's refined sugar production was 3.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The total refined sugar production in 2025 was 16.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2]. - **Weather Information**: The yellow warning for freezing in Guangxi remained in effect, and freezing rain and snow would affect many areas [2]. - **Brazilian Sugar Cane Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,020 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - per - ton of cane (ATR) was 127.49 kg, a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The sugar - making ratio dropped significantly to 21.24%. The total ethanol production was 561 million liters, a year - on - year increase of 14.91%. As of January 1, 2026, in the 2025/2026 sugar - cane season, the central - southern region of Brazil had cumulatively crushed 600.4 million tons of sugar cane, a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.28%. The cumulative sugar production reached 40.222 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The ethanol cumulative production was 30.838 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.06% [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly strong", and the trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [1]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the early part of the week, weak overseas demand and domestic buying sentiment led to a decline in Thai raw material prices, weakening upstream cost support. Higher-than-expected December natural rubber imports increased inventory pressure, causing rubber prices to fall. At the end of the week, a rebound in overseas raw material prices and positive news in synthetic rubber drove rubber prices up. The capacity utilization rates of Chinese tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends this week, and are expected to be slightly weaker next week [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily and night closing prices of the rubber main contract increased by 105 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 23,739 lots, while the open interest increased by 1,899 lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,373 lots [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot and mixed rubber against the futures main contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton respectively. The monthly spread between RU05 and RU09 remained unchanged [1]. - **Spot Market**: The outer - market quotes of various rubber types such as RSS3, STR20, etc. increased. The prices of substitutes like Qilu styrene - butadiene and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber also rose. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber, increased [1]. Industry News - Overseas demand and domestic buying sentiment weakened in the early part of the week, causing a decline in Thai raw material prices. Higher - than - expected imports in December increased inventory pressure, leading to a decline in rubber prices. At the end of the week, a rebound in raw material prices and positive news in synthetic rubber drove prices up. The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends, with semi - steel tire utilization rising and full - steel tire utilization falling. It is expected to be slightly weaker next week [2][3].

Sugar Industry - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5260 to 5360 CNY/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group quotes between 5110 to 5160 CNY/ton, reflecting an overall decrease of 10 CNY/ton [2][6] - Recent rebound in raw sugar futures has not broken the range-bound pattern, attributed to declining sugar production in Brazil and supportive ethanol-to-sugar pricing, with the market currently in Brazil's off-season [2][6] - The core issue remains the estimated production for the new crushing season starting in April, with limited positive impacts from the production side at this moment, necessitating attention to the progress of northern hemisphere production [2][6] - Domestic spot prices are slowly declining, and the market lacks new drivers for further declines, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [2][6] Cotton Industry - On Thursday, ICE cotton prices fell by 0.61% to 63.91 cents/pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures rose by 1.06% to 14730 CNY/ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 12765 contracts to 800,000 contracts [8] - The cotton 3128B spot price index increased by 75 CNY/ton to 15520 CNY/ton compared to the previous day [8] - Internationally, ongoing macroeconomic disturbances and delayed expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve until June have weakened the US dollar, leading to a lack of sustained upward momentum in cotton prices [8] - Domestically, the focus has shifted back to fundamentals, particularly pre-holiday inventory replenishment and operational conditions, with textile companies showing limited motivation for significant restocking ahead of the Spring Festival [8] - As the holiday approaches, operational rates are expected to gradually decline from high levels, indicating limited upward drivers for cotton prices in the short term, although future policy developments may provide some support [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term cotton drivers are limited, but the medium - and long - term cotton fundamentals remain strong. After a significant recent price correction, cotton is expected to trade in a range in the short term. The short - term trend of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be range - bound. For cotton trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options. The cotton yarn market will continue to be weak in the short term, and the overall situation of the cotton fabric market has not changed significantly [6][8][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15300 with a price increase of 145, and the CY05 contract closed at 20620 with a price increase of 105 [2] - **Spot Market**: The prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn spot varieties are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B cotton price at 15839 yuan/ton with a decrease of 17, and the CY IndexC32S cotton yarn price at 21320 with no change [2] - **Price Spreads**: Different price spreads, including cotton inter - month spreads, cotton yarn inter - month spreads, cross - variety spreads, and internal - external spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month cotton spread is 570 with a decrease of 50, and the internal - external cotton spread (1% tariff) is 2827 with an increase of 63 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **West African Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton planting area in West Africa is expected to be about 2.2 million hectares (about 33 million mu), a 6% year - on - year decrease. Mali's seed cotton production will drop by over one - third to about 435,000 tons, while Benin's total production is expected to increase by 2% to about 650,000 tons. The total production of the eight West African countries is expected to be 905,000 tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease [4] - **Pakistani Textiles**: In December 2025, Pakistan's textile exports were $1.11 billion, a 6% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year decrease. In the first six months of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the cumulative total textile exports were $7.6 billion, a 1% year - on - year slight increase [5] - **Xinjiang Cotton Transportation**: On January 22, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1665 yuan/ton·km, a 0.77% month - on - month decrease. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [5] Trading Logic and Strategies - **Logic**: The current cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Short - term cotton drivers are limited, and the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong. After a significant price correction, short - term range - bound trading is expected [6] - **Strategies**: For single - side trading, the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to be range - bound. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8][9][10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - **Cotton Yarn Market**: The domestic cotton yarn market has been weak, with continuous price discounts. The trading volume is expected to decrease further. The prices of different cotton yarn products in various regions are provided [10] - **Cotton Fabric Market**: The overall situation of the cotton fabric market has not changed significantly, with slightly better sales of thinner plain - weave fabrics. Weaving mills' orders have increased slightly, but the delivery time is tight. They are cautious about the post - holiday market [10] Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other relevant data of several cotton option contracts on January 19, 2026 are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC option closed at 334 with a 16.9% decrease, and its implied volatility was 13.3% [12] - **Volatility Analysis**: The 60 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts are also provided [12] - **Option Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended for options [14] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - Multiple figures are presented, including the internal - external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, cotton basis for different months, the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and the inter - month price difference of cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, and procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. - The pressure on the supply side is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$43.57 per ton. - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 21, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 146,086 lots, and the open interest was 121,693 lots. The highest price was 24,390 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,070 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 122,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous period. - As of January 21, 2026, LME zinc inventory was 111,850 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to weaken overnight. The increasing seasonal supply pressure led to a pessimistic market sentiment and a decline in the market. With the southern sugar mills in the peak crushing period, the seasonal supply of sugar increased, and the supply pressure gradually emerged. In December, sugar imports exceeded market expectations, suppressing the market. On the spot side, prices were weak, and pre - holiday consumption did not improve. It is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [3]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak oscillation within the range overnight. The immediate profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the immediate cash - flow of inland textile enterprises in the downstream industry have been compressed to a relatively low level. However, the inventory pressure of textile enterprises' finished products is relatively limited. The operation rate of inland textile enterprises has decreased steadily, while that of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains strong. After the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, many textile enterprises locked in the basis and priced. The rigid demand for cotton raw materials from textile enterprises still exists. In the short term, the expectation of production reduction regulation has been reflected in the market. It is expected that after continuous reduction in positions and decline in the market, it will maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: For domestic sugar futures contracts (SR2609, SR2605, SR2603), the previous day's closing prices were 5161, 5144, and 5143 respectively, down 39 from the day before yesterday, with a decline rate of 0.75%. The trading volumes were 25565, 223350, and 37264 respectively, and the open interests were 96753, 461359, and 103143 respectively, with increases of 4559, 22526, and 1653 respectively [1]. - **11 - No. Sugar Futures**: For 11 - no. sugar futures contracts (2603, 2607, 2605), the previous day's closing prices were 14.77, 14.35, and 14.67 respectively. Compared with the day before yesterday, the price of 2603 increased by 0.04 (0.27%), 2607 remained unchanged, and 2605 decreased by 0.01 (- 0.07%). The trading volumes were 46550, 19076, and 8358 respectively, and the open interests were 405922, 153199, and 86790 respectively. The open interests of 2603 decreased by 7982, while those of 2607 and 2605 increased by 1743 and 394 respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5350 and 5195 respectively. The previous day's prices were 5370 and 5195 respectively. The current basis of Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2603 is 207 and 52 respectively, compared with 188 and 13 the day before yesterday [1]. - **Sugar Import Price**: The current quota - within and quota - outside import prices of Brazilian sugar are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and those of Thai sugar are 3847 and 4912 respectively. Compared with the day before yesterday, the prices have decreased. The differences between the futures price and Thai sugar are 1297 (quota - within) and 232 (quota - outside) [1]. Inventory and Position - **Sugar Inventory**: The current number of sugar warehouse receipts is 14421, the effective forecast is 50, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts is 14471, slightly lower than the previous day [1]. - **ICE11 - No. Sugar Position**: The current non - commercial long and short positions of ICE11 - no. sugar are 143494 and 309205 respectively, and the long - to - short ratio is 0.46, which is lower than the previous day [1]. Industry Information - **Port Cargo Throughput**: In 2025, the Santos Port in São Paulo state set a record high in cargo throughput at 186.4 million tons, a 3.6% increase from the previous record in 2024. China was the most frequent trading partner, accounting for 29.6% of the total trade flow. The main export products were soybeans (44.9 million tons), sugar (24.1 million tons), corn (15.2 million tons), and pulp (9.8 million tons), and the main import products were fertilizers (8.3 million tons), diesel (2.4 million tons), sulfur (2.04 million tons), and wheat (1.3 million tons) [2]. - **Brazilian Sugarcane Yield**: In December 2025, the average yield per hectare of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons, a 26.6% increase from the same period in 2024. The cumulative yield per hectare from April to December in the 2025/26 crushing season was 74.7 tons, a 4.6% decrease from the same period in the previous crushing season [2]. - **Indian Sugarcane Subsidy**: The Punjab state cabinet in India approved a direct subsidy of 685 rupees per ton (equivalent to 52.38 yuan per ton) for sugarcane farmers in the 2025/26 crushing season this Tuesday. This subsidy will be paid by private sugar mills and directly distributed to farmers' accounts, which is an additional subsidy and does not affect the current guidance price of 4160 rupees per ton (equivalent to 318.07 yuan per ton) in the state, which is still the highest in the country [2].

2026 年 01 月 22 日 铝：24000 一线震荡 氧化铝：反弹沽空 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | | | | | | 11 | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | | | | 24155 | 205 | -440 | 2185 | 3410 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | | | | 24100 | l | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | 3118 | -1 | -72 | 223 | 469 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | | | | 46 ...

LPG：取暖需求支撑，PG 走势坚挺 丙烯：现货维持紧平衡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 2026 年 1 月 22 日 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | 2602 | 昨日收盘价 4,161 | 日涨幅 0.48% | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 4,182 | 0.50% | | 2602 | 4,683 | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 -7,567 | 6,131 | -2,837 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2603 | 4,069 | 0.37% | 4,104 | 0.86% | PG | 2603 | 43,015 | -11,592 | 88,100 | -2,868 | | 期货市场 | | 2604 | 4,346 | 0.58% | 4,377 | 0.71% ...

Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the outlook of industrial silicon being in a state of upstream production cuts and range - bound oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,780 yuan/ton, with changes of 35 yuan from T - 1, 25 yuan from T - 5, and 135 yuan from T - 22; its trading volume is 280,575 lots, down 57,731 lots from T - 1, up 34,639 lots from T - 5, and down 67,902 lots from T - 22; its open interest is 223,687 lots, down 865 from T - 1, down 11,402 from T - 5, and up 15,907 from T - 22 [2] - PS2605 closing price is 49,700 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan from T - 1 and up 755 yuan from T - 5; its trading volume is 15,484 lots, up 5,369 lots from T - 1 and down 5,458 lots from T - 5; its open interest is 43,920 lots, up 288 from T - 1 and down 4,519 from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount (against East China Si5530) is +470 yuan/ton, with changes of -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -85 yuan from T - 22; against East China Si4210 is +70 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and 1,135 yuan from T - 22; against Xinjiang 99 silicon is -80 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -140 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) is +5050 yuan/ton, 0 from T - 1, -1,255 yuan from T - 5, and 11,895 yuan from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 50 yuan from T - 22; Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2351.5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 325 yuan from T - 5, and down 70 yuan from T - 22; (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 5574 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 295 yuan from T - 5, and down 205 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 0.2 million tons from T - 22; enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.8 million tons, up 0.42 million tons from T - 5 and 2.1 million tons from T - 22; industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.3 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from T - 5 and 2.25 million tons from T - 22; futures warehouse receipt inventory is 6.0 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from T - 1, 0.4 million tons from T - 5, and 1.6 million tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 32.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from T - 5 and 2.8 million tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore price in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Yunnan is 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 and 20 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Washed coking coal price in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Ningxia is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Petroleum coke price: Maoming coke is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; Yangtze coke is 2340 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Electrode price: graphite electrode is 12450 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; carbon electrode is 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price and Profit - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22; trichlorosilane is 3425 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; silicon powder (99 silicon) is 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Silicon wafer (N - type - 210mm) price is 1.68 yuan/piece, down 0.01 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and up 0.20 yuan from T - 22; battery cell (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.41 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.02 yuan from T - 5, and down 0.71 yuan from T - 22; component (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.711 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.003 yuan from T - 5, and up 0.024 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 1.5 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 299 yuan from T - 5, and down 65 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - Organic silicon DMC price is 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 50 yuan from T - 5, and up 300 yuan from T - 22; DMC enterprise profit is 1954 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 124 yuan from T - 5, and up 264 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 23850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 350 yuan from T - 5, and up 2200 yuan from T - 22; recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from T - 1, up 610 yuan from T - 5, and up 220 yuan from T - 22 [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - The battery end is still under cost pressure due to the rising silver price. The mainstream market quotation is 0.4 - 0.43 yuan/W, and some leading enterprises intend to raise the quotation to 0.45 yuan/W. The current mainstream domestic market transactions are concentrated at 0.4 - 0.41 yuan/W, and the latest overseas battery 183N transaction has reached 0.43 yuan/W due to the export tax policy [2][4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend intensity of polysilicon is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [4]

市场分析 2026-01-21日沪镍主力合约2602开于142600元/吨，收于143060元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.39%，当 日成交量为745668（+50522）手，持仓量为75892（-3113）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约整体表现为宽幅波动、尾盘收涨，多空博弈激烈，核心驱动来自宏观情 绪、外盘联动与供需预期的综合影响。日内有色金属及贵金属板块普涨，一定程度上带动了沪镍价格走 势。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿价格延续上行态势，市场看涨与挺价情绪主导，实际成交价格 重心进一步上移。菲律宾矿山高报价持续引导市场。国内市场有1.5%品位镍矿以CIF57美元成交，另有 大型工厂对该品位的心理采购价位在58-59美元。同时，1.4%品位CIF53美元左右的报价已出现，但买方 接受意愿较低，凸显市场博弈加剧。此外，菲律宾南部矿山1.3%品位镍矿以FOB35.5美元的价格成交并 运往印尼，矿端心态普遍看涨。印尼方面，市场价格在前期大幅上调后暂时企稳。市场正在消化当前高 位成本，并观望后续官方动作。据市场预期，随着LME镍价走强，2月内贸基准价（HPM）仍有上调空 间，成本支撑预期持续存在， ...