Core Insights - The roundtable at Fudan University focused on the issue of stablecoins from an interdisciplinary perspective, highlighting their role as digital assets that combine the cross-border efficiency of cryptocurrencies with the value stability of fiat currencies [1][4] - Stablecoins are categorized into three main models: fiat-collateralized (e.g., USDT, USDC), crypto-collateralized (e.g., MakerDAO's DAI), and algorithmic [1][5][6] - Regulatory frameworks for stablecoins are emerging globally, with significant legislation such as the EU's MiCA, the US's GENIUS Act, and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, marking a shift from unregulated to regulated environments [2][4][9] Summary by Category Stablecoin Characteristics - Stablecoins are digital representations of fiat currencies, managed through blockchain technology, allowing for unlimited issuance unlike Bitcoin's capped supply [1][3] - They serve as mediums of exchange, payment methods, and stores of value, often offering higher interest rates than traditional savings [3] Types of Stablecoins - **Fiat-Collateralized**: Examples include USDT and USDC, which are pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies, with USDT facing transparency issues while USDC adheres to US regulatory frameworks [5] - **Crypto-Collateralized**: Such as MakerDAO's DAI, which uses cryptocurrencies like ETH as collateral, typically requiring a collateralization ratio above 150% [6][7] - **Algorithmic**: These stablecoins adjust supply dynamically through smart contracts, but the 2022 UST de-pegging incident revealed vulnerabilities in purely algorithmic mechanisms [6][8] Regulatory Landscape - The introduction of regulations signifies a transition to a more structured environment for stablecoins, with the MiCA law in the EU set to take effect on December 31, 2024, alongside the US and Hong Kong regulations [2][4][9] - Regulatory challenges include identity verification on blockchain, tracking fund flows, ensuring transaction compliance, and coordinating across different jurisdictions [10][11] Future Trends - The future of stablecoins is expected to see a synergy between regulation and innovation, deeper technological integration, and a reshaping of market dynamics, with leading institutions leveraging their technological and capital advantages [2][13]

Core Viewpoints - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reported a significant increase in market activity, with the average daily turnover (ADT) reaching HKD 2,376.77 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 95.46% [1][2][3] - The influx of southbound capital has contributed to high trading volumes, with a total net purchase of HKD 2,728.63 billion from April to June 2025, marking a 24.77% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The number of new IPOs in Q2 2025 rose to 27, up by 9 from the same period last year, with total IPO fundraising amounting to HKD 880.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 906.67% [1][3][5] Market Performance - As of June 2025, the market capitalization of the Hong Kong securities market stood at HKD 42.68 trillion, reflecting a 6.84% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 32.82% increase year-on-year [2] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 4.12% in Q2 2025, while the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a slight decline of 1.70% [2] IPO and Trading Activity - The surge in IPO activity was driven by major A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, including notable firms like CATL and Hengrui Medicine, which collectively raised HKD 737.72 billion, accounting for 83.79% of the total IPO fundraising in Q2 [3][5] - Derivatives and commodity contracts saw increased trading volumes due to heightened demand for risk hedging, with average daily trading volumes for futures and options reaching 1.54 million contracts in Q2, a 15.34% increase year-on-year [3][4] Investment and Future Outlook - Despite a decline in investment returns due to lower HIBOR rates, the overall yield remains high, with expectations of continued growth in Q2 performance [4][5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting a target price of HKD 480.08 per share based on a 40x PE ratio for 2025, indicating a favorable outlook for future market activity and valuation recovery [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong, which aims to create a robust regulatory framework for stablecoins and digital assets, enhancing financial stability [6][7] - The report discusses the advancements in the AI computing sector, particularly the deployment of CoreWeave's GB300 systems, which are expected to significantly enhance AI processing capabilities [9][10] - The report emphasizes the progress in the biopharmaceutical sector, particularly the promising results from clinical trials of PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies for various cancers, indicating a strong potential for market growth [12][14] - The report notes the financial turnaround of Aisuke Co., which achieved profitability in Q2 2025, driven by strong sales of its ABC components and improved operational efficiency [16][17] - The report tracks the pricing trends in the photovoltaic industry, indicating structural price declines in battery cells and modules, while highlighting the competitive advantages of Aisuke's ABC technology [19][20][21] Industry Commentary - The banking sector is undergoing regulatory changes with the introduction of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong, which is expected to foster a healthier digital asset ecosystem [6] - The communication industry is witnessing significant developments with CoreWeave's deployment of AI computing systems, which is anticipated to drive capital expenditure and investment opportunities [9][10] - The biopharmaceutical industry is experiencing advancements in cancer treatment, particularly with the PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies showing promising clinical trial results [12][14] - The renewable energy sector, particularly solar energy, is facing pricing pressures, but companies like Aisuke are leveraging innovative technologies to maintain competitive advantages [19][20][21] Company Analysis - Aisuke Co. has reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance, achieving profitability in Q2 2025, attributed to strong demand for its ABC components and improved operational efficiencies [16][17] - The report indicates that Aisuke's ABC technology is recognized as a leading solution in the photovoltaic industry, with continuous improvements in efficiency and market share [20][21] - The report suggests that Aisuke's strategic focus on high-value markets and operational efficiency will position it favorably for future growth in a competitive landscape [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion on stablecoins highlights the need for a comprehensive regulatory framework to address their unique legal attributes and risks, as well as the ongoing global efforts to establish such regulations [1][2][4]. Regulatory Landscape - Stablecoins are defined as digital assets that maintain value stability by being pegged to fiat currencies, yet their legal classification remains ambiguous, leading to regulatory gaps and risks [1][3]. - Major jurisdictions are accelerating legislation on stablecoins, with the U.S. pushing the GEIUS Act to bring stablecoin issuance under Federal Reserve oversight, while the EU has enacted the MiCA regulation for unified licensing and cross-border oversight [1][6][7]. - China is testing stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong, with a draft law set to be implemented in May 2025, while the mainland has yet to establish a systematic response to stablecoin regulation [4][7]. Trends in Global Regulation - Three key trends in global stablecoin regulation are emerging: 1. Homogeneity in regulation based on function rather than entity to prevent regulatory arbitrage [8]. 2. Emphasis on technology neutrality and functional penetration in regulatory frameworks [8]. 3. Recognition of the cross-border nature of stablecoins, necessitating international cooperation and coordination [9]. Risks and Challenges - Stablecoins face various risks, including credit, liquidity, and market manipulation risks, as well as significant de-pegging risks, as evidenced by the USDC incident during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis [3][4]. - The current market for stablecoins is characterized by a speculative mentality among participants, with a notable portion of the virtual currency market being driven by the pursuit of high returns [3].

Core Viewpoint - The TBAC committee has submitted materials to the Treasury Department regarding stablecoins, addressing their impact on Treasury demand, dollar hegemony, the expansion of dollar-backed payment stablecoins, and potential effects on deposit-holding institutions [2][10]. Group 1: Development of the Stablecoin Market - Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain price stability by anchoring their value to reserve assets like fiat currencies [3][12]. - The stablecoin market has evolved rapidly, driven by institutional interest, regulatory frameworks, and broader on-chain applications, experiencing significant events over the past four years, including the collapse of Terra (UST) in May 2022 and the regional bank crisis in March 2023 [3][20]. - The market is projected to reach a valuation of approximately $2 trillion by 2028, influenced by evolving market dynamics and incentive mechanisms [28]. Group 2: Legislative Framework for Stablecoins - The GENIUS Act, passed by the U.S. Senate in 2025, aims to establish the first federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, significantly impacting the future of dollar-pegged stablecoins [4][31]. - Key provisions of the GENIUS Act include defining stablecoins, reserve requirements, disclosure and auditing mandates, and consumer protection measures [35]. Group 3: Impact on Bank Deposits - The design of stablecoins will determine their potential impact on bank deposit flows, with non-interest-bearing stablecoins likely leading to a shift towards tokenized money market funds for yield capture [5][37]. - If stablecoins offer interest, they may attract funds from traditional deposits, enhancing their global appeal, especially among existing on-chain holders [5][37]. Group 4: Impact on U.S. Treasury Market - Stablecoin issuers currently hold over $120 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bills, with projected incremental demand for U.S. Treasuries reaching approximately $900 billion by 2028 due to stablecoin growth [6][43]. - The transition of funds from bank deposits to stablecoins may lead to increased demand for U.S. Treasuries, potentially exacerbated by trust crises or de-pegging events [6][43]. Group 5: Impact on Money Supply - The growth of stablecoins may catalyze a shift of funds from traditional bank deposits to stablecoins, influencing the movement of money from M1/M2 to stablecoins without significantly altering the total money supply [7][49]. Group 6: Market Structure Implications - Historical de-pegging events have highlighted the need for more robust market access mechanisms for stablecoin issuers, akin to banking regulations [8][52]. - The GENIUS Act's stringent reserve requirements aim to prevent "breaking the buck" scenarios, drawing lessons from past money market fund reforms [8][53].

Group 1 - Tether Holdings SA, the largest stablecoin issuer globally, has a dedicated vault in Switzerland storing approximately $8 billion in gold reserves, making it one of the largest holders of gold outside of banks and sovereign institutions [1][2] - The company currently holds nearly 80 tons of gold, with most of it directly owned by Tether, and the gold reserves account for nearly 5% of the total assets backing its stablecoin USDT, which has a circulation of $159 billion [1][2] - Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, stated that the company opted for its own vault to reduce storage costs, especially if the circulation of its gold-backed token XAUT grows to $100 billion [2] Group 2 - The new regulatory framework for stablecoins poses a potential threat to Tether's gold reserves, as recent regulations in the EU and proposed legislation in the US only allow cash and cash equivalents as backing assets for stablecoins [3] - If Tether seeks authorization in relevant markets, it may be required to sell its gold reserves to comply with these regulations, reflecting concerns from regulators about large fund transfers bypassing the traditional banking system [3] Group 3 - Ardoino expressed optimism about the long-term value of gold, suggesting it is a safer asset than any national currency, especially amid concerns over rising US debt [4] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 25% this year, as investors view it as a hedge against geopolitical tensions and expanding trade wars [4] - Strong demand from global central banks and sovereign institutions, particularly from BRICS nations, is also supporting the rise in gold prices [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the dual nature of stablecoins, highlighting their necessity in modern payment systems while also acknowledging the associated risks, particularly in illegal activities [3][4] - Stablecoins serve as a bridge in payment settlements, ultimately requiring conversion to fiat currency for true value transfer, necessitating regulatory oversight to ensure safety and compliance [4][5] - The impact of foreign stablecoins on national currency sovereignty is significant, with the need for regulations to mitigate potential risks while leveraging stablecoins for enhancing the international influence of sovereign currencies [5][6] Group 2 - The relationship between stablecoins and the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is crucial, with the dominance of USD stablecoins indicating a need for RMB stablecoins to support emerging economic development rather than direct competition [6][8] - The interplay between stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is highlighted, with stablecoins excelling in cross-border transactions while CBDCs are more suited for domestic applications, suggesting a complementary relationship [7] - Recommendations for the development of RMB stablecoins include a gradual approach, starting with offshore issuance in Hong Kong and expanding to free trade zones, to enhance the use of offshore RMB and facilitate its internationalization [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus on stablecoins has led to warnings from regulatory bodies about the risks of illegal fundraising and fraudulent activities associated with them [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - The Shenzhen Municipal Financial Management Bureau issued a warning about illegal fundraising activities disguised as stablecoin investments, highlighting the risks of scams and financial crimes [1]. - Regulatory measures in China primarily prohibit cryptocurrency trading and restrict banks from providing settlement services for such transactions [2]. - Other regions, including Hong Kong and the U.S., have introduced regulations requiring stablecoin issuers to obtain licenses and adhere to local laws, even for overseas operations [2][3]. Group 2: Market Risks - The potential volatility of stablecoins can lead to significant market panic, especially if a large number of holders attempt to redeem their stablecoins for fiat currency simultaneously [3]. - The lack of interest payments to stablecoin holders and the need for regulatory oversight of the investment areas of stablecoin issuers are critical issues that need addressing [3]. Group 3: Public Awareness and Education - Experts emphasize the importance of public understanding of stablecoins, advising potential investors to avoid participation without adequate knowledge [4]. - The Shenzhen office for combating illegal financial activities warns that institutions engaging in fundraising without proper authorization are operating illegally and may lead to significant financial losses for investors [5].

Group 1: Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong - Hong Kong plans to issue limited stablecoin licenses by the end of 2025, with the initial number expected to be in the "single digits" [1] - The regulatory sandbox initially focused on stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, but there is growing interest in offshore stablecoins pegged to the Chinese yuan, driven by major tech companies like JD.com and Ant Group [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has established new regulations requiring stablecoin issuers to maintain sufficient asset reserves and segregate customer assets [1] - The new stablecoin policy in Hong Kong sets a global benchmark through full reserve backing, strict redemption guarantees, and oversight by the HKMA, reinforcing its status as a regulated digital finance hub [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Supply Chains - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Vietnam from 46% to 20%, although this remains significantly higher than historical levels [2] - Tariff options are still not fully eliminated for key industries such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, and semiconductors, affecting various Asian economies reliant on exports [2] - China is shifting its policy focus towards stimulating domestic demand through reforms and regulatory adjustments, rather than large-scale interventions [2] Group 3: Home Furnishing Sector Valuation - The home furnishing sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 22.39, which is at the 34.82% percentile of the past five years, indicating significant room for valuation recovery [3] - Major home furnishing companies like Sophia and Oppein are at historical low valuations, with potential for upward valuation adjustments and high safety margins [3] - The market share of leading custom home furnishing companies is expected to increase due to the inability of white-label brands to participate in subsidies, with companies like Oppein and Sophia showing substantial growth potential [3] - The rise in smart home penetration, driven by technology and policy incentives, is expected to promote industry growth, with companies like Mousse, Haotaitai, and Qushui Technology showing potential [3] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Industry Insights - Despite claims of "zero emissions," the production and recycling of batteries for electric vehicles pose significant environmental challenges, highlighting battery pollution as a future concern [4] - The competition between traditional automotive companies and emerging electric vehicle firms is not on the same track, as their goals and rules differ, making the notion of "overtaking" misleading [4] Group 5: Power Outage in Europe - A large-scale power outage occurred in the Czech Republic on July 4, 2025, lasting approximately nine hours, revealing structural vulnerabilities in modern power systems [5] - The outage led to severe consequences, including the paralysis of railway systems, subway operations, public transport, and communication networks [5] - Increasing extreme weather events add pressure to power systems, particularly affecting transmission lines and increasing grid vulnerability [5] - Historical power outages have demonstrated the risks of single faults leading to widespread system failures, emphasizing the need for upgrades and better monitoring systems in core transmission channels [5]

资料来源：最闻 【山证计算机】AI 算力专题报告：AI 产 业高景气持续，算力国产化大势所趋 2025.5.27 【山证计算机】机器人产业趋势持续强 化，重视上下游投资机会 2025.5.14 分析师： 计算机 行业快报 领先大市-A(维持) 2025 年 7 月 7 日 行业研究/行业快报 计算机行业近一年市场表现 方闻千 执业登记编码：S0760524050001 邮箱：fangwenqian@szxq.com 研究助理： 邮箱：zouxinchen@sxzq.com 全球稳定币监管框架建立，产业将迎来爆发时刻 事件描述： 首选股票 评级 全球稳定币监管立法正快速推进：今年 6 月 17 日，美国参议院以 68 票 比 30 票正式通过 GENIUS 法案，明确了支付型稳定币的定义并提出了稳定 币的发行资质和抵押品要求等，为美元稳定币制定监管框架，目前 GENIUS 法案正递交众议院审议；欧盟 MiCA 法案已于 24 年 12 月 30 日全面生效； 今年 5 月 21 日，香港通过《稳定币条例草案》，并将于 8 月 1 日正式生效， 该条例明确稳定币发行人需在香港金管局申请牌照，并符合储备资产管理、 ...