摘要周二（4月22日）亚市盘中，黄金t+d高位震荡，最新黄金td价格报823.10元/克，涨幅2.94%，因美 国总统特朗普再度威胁美联储独立性，特朗普的关税政策也持续动摇投资者对美国经济的信心，这些因 素导致美元暴跌，并激发避险需求，从而引发黄金大幅上涨。 周二（4月22日）亚市盘中，黄金t+d高位震荡，最新黄金td价格报823.10元/克，涨幅2.94%，因美国总 统特朗普再度威胁美联储独立性，特朗普的关税政策也持续动摇投资者对美国经济的信心，这些因素导 致美元暴跌，并激发避险需求，从而引发黄金大幅上涨。 【要闻速递】 美国谘商会高级经理Justyna Zabinska-La Monica表示："美国3月份经济增长指标表明，未来经济活动将 放缓。""3月份的下跌集中在三个分项指标上，这三个分项指标在关税宣布之前因经济不确定性上升而 走弱：1)消费者预期进一步下降；2)股价创下自2022年9月以来的最大月度跌幅；3)制造业新订单疲软。 尽管如此，数据并不表明衰退已经开始或即将开始。尽管如此，谘商会将美国2025年的GDP增长预测下 调至1.6%，略低于美国经济的潜力。预期增长率放缓反映了贸易战加剧的影响，这 ...

纽约股市三大股指收盘显著下跌，三大指数均跌超2%，再迎"黑色星期一"。 截至收盘，道指跌971点，跌幅为2.48%，报38170.41点；纳指跌2.55%，报15870.9点；标普500指数跌2.36%，报5158.2点。 当天稍早前，美国总统特朗普再次敦促美联储作出降息决定，称"如果不立即降息，美国经济将面临放缓风险"。 | | | 全球主要股票指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 38170.41 | -971.82 | -2.48% | | | 纳斯达克 | 15870.9 | -415.55 | -2.55% | | | 标普500 | 5158.2 | -124.5 | -2.36% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 4935.34 | -31.16 | -0.63% | | 欧美 | 英国富时100 | 8275.66 | 31 0.06 | 0.00% | | | 法国CAC40 | | www.gogudata.com | - | | | 德国DAX | - | | - ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but indicates expectations for a Fed rate cut in May or June due to anticipated economic slowdown [10]. Core Insights - The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, excluding China, does not prevent a slowdown in US economic growth and inflation [4][10]. - The average effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 21 percentage points from the beginning of the year, raising concerns about trade uncertainty and its impact on growth [4][6]. - A surge in non-China imports is expected, which may dampen growth in Q2 [4][9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The baseline 10% tariff remains in place against all countries, with significant increases for many [6]. - New tariffs of 105% on Chinese goods are in addition to existing tariffs, contributing to a high effective tariff rate [6]. - Sector-specific tariffs on autos, aluminum, and steel are still enforced, with new tariffs anticipated on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6]. Economic Forecast - The report anticipates a slowdown in growth, leading to potential Fed policy rate cuts of 125 basis points this year [10]. - The dynamics of the 90-day tariff pause may lead to a temporary surge in imports, affecting Q2 growth negatively [9]. - Consumer spending may initially strengthen in Q2 but is expected to slow down in Q3 due to ongoing uncertainty [9].

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed a decline, with significant drops in shipping European lines and PX over 6%, while synthetic rubber and 20 rubber hit the limit down [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is negative, with various commodities such as PTA, crude oil, and paper pulp also experiencing declines of over 4% [1][2] - The rubber market has seen a drop of over 2000 yuan this week, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than its own fundamentals [3][4] Group 2 - The shipping price is expected to remain weak, with uncertainty in near-term changes and overall weak trade demand in the long term [3] - PX's weak pattern persists due to low operating rates compared to other chemical fiber industries, with international oil prices significantly impacting PX prices [3] - The rubber market is suggested to be suitable for low-position short-term buying, with a focus on the 2509 contract below the 14000 yuan mark [4]

顺带说一句，李嘉诚除了房地产，最喜欢做的就是公用事业的生意，发电+自来水。我港股就买了老李旗下的电能实业，是港股这么烂的情况下少数还有 盈利的港股。 今天两市成交7400亿，缩量非常明显，不过我打听到的说法是近期日内做t的量化交易大幅变少了，虽然监管没有明确的说日内t不准做，但机构们在这个 时候都倾向于业务收缩，不愿当出头鸟。没有了这些日内来回撸毛的交易，a股正常就是7000-8000亿的规模。 市场中位数-1.28%，如果看中位数的话今年-17%很惨了，那些炒小票的2024年被打到深水区，很难上岸。资金继续向主板的权重股集中，上证指数今天 跌0.48%，是几个大盘指数里表现最好的。 板块里一马当先的依然是近期连续上涨的电力，+2.7%，也是76个行业里唯一涨幅超过1%的板块。随着6月份的临近，外部资金的涌入呈现加速的状态。 中央在山东济南召开企业和专家座谈会，就深化电力体制改革、发展风险投资等提出i意见建议。这就是继续走该走的流程，但市场上已经在提前消化涨 价的利好。 昨晚有读者问长江电力为什么一直涨，其实长江电力不是孤例，整个水电板块最近都很好。国投电力、川投能源、华能水电、桂冠电力，也都是一天一个 新高 ...