Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting signals a potential shift in monetary policy, indicating that the Fed is open to interest rate cuts due to rising risks in the labor market and economic growth slowdown [1] - The current economic environment, characterized by high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, still shows resilience, but significant slowdowns in the labor market and economic growth are evident [1] - The expectation of a rate cut in September could enhance market enthusiasm for gold, as lower interest rates increase the investment appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - Gold prices surged to a high of 3378, driven by rising expectations of rate cuts, increasing economic risks, and a weakening dollar [2] - The market's shift from prioritizing anti-inflation measures to balancing employment and inflation reflects in gold pricing, indicating a potential onset of a loosening cycle [2] - Key upcoming economic indicators, such as the August non-farm payroll data and CPI, along with the Fed's September meeting, will be crucial in determining the sustainability of rate cut expectations and their impact on gold's medium to long-term trends [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the surge in gold prices, reaching a peak of 3377, is driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts, heightened economic risks, and a weakening dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy stance has shifted from prioritizing anti-inflation to balancing employment and inflation, which is reflected in the market's pricing of a loosening cycle in gold prices [1] - Future attention should be paid to the August non-farm payroll data, CPI data, and the Federal Reserve's September meeting, as these will determine whether the expectations for interest rate cuts can be sustained, impacting the medium to long-term trend of gold [1] Group 2 - There is strong support for gold at the 3315 level, and if it maintains this position and breaks through previous highs, it indicates a strengthening trend for gold [3] - If gold breaks through the 3352-48 range, it is advisable to continue buying, with a stop-loss if it falls below 40, targeting upward movement towards 3400 [3]

换资前言： 金九银十"将至，国际黄金投资窗口正开，想抓住这波机会？找金晟富准没错！当下全球不太平，地缘 冲突、经济乏力、物价或涨，股市波动大。而国际黄金在2008年金融危机时，美股跌惨它却涨25%，能 护钱袋子。各国央行连续13年增持，新兴市场增速80%，买的人多金价易涨。5G手机、新能源汽车用 金需求大增，2030年或比现在多40%。金晟富熟悉国际黄金市场，不管你想稳投实物、积存金、ETF， 还是想通过期货多赚，金晟富都能给出专业建议，助你灵活操作、随时变现。这旺季，别错过赚大钱的 机会！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（8月21日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3342.08美元/盎司附近。周三金价守住100 日均线关键支撑，并反弹近40美元，最高触及3350关口，收报3348.20美元/盎司，涨幅约1%，强支撑 位附近出现逢低买盘，美元汇率的下滑直接降低了以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者的成本，从而刺 激了全球需求。周三，美元指数在小幅刷新一周高点后回落，收盘下跌0.13%，报98.20，这一降幅虽不 算剧烈，但足以让黄金价格摆脱早盘低点，实现显著反弹。美元走弱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent stability of the US dollar is expected to shift towards further weakening, with Lombard Odier strategists downgrading their outlook from neutral to negative [1] Economic Indicators - US inflation has seen a slight increase, while companies are neither significantly hiring nor laying off employees, leading market consensus to align with the expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Interest Rate Impact - Lower US interest rates are anticipated to diminish the yield advantage of the dollar, contributing to its weakening [1] Hedging Costs and Investor Sentiment - The decline in US policy rates is expected to reduce hedging costs, while the positioning of short-term investors is no longer extreme, further decreasing demand for the dollar [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices have shown a recovery trend since August 18, with London spot gold opening at $3333.347 per ounce on August 19, reaching a peak of over $3341 per ounce [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported an increase of 4.01 tons in holdings on August 15, bringing the total to 965.37 tons, indicating a rising interest from institutional and retail investors [1][3] - Domestic investors have also shown strong interest in gold ETFs, with a net inflow of 1.9 million yuan across five commodity gold ETFs from August 18 to 19 [1][3] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the rising demand for gold to a weakening dollar and expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards interest rate cuts, rather than solely geopolitical risks [2] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is predicted to lower the dollar index and real interest rates, enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [2] - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, reinforcing gold's status as a currency alternative amid the long-term trend of a weakening dollar [2] Group 3 - UBS has raised its gold price forecasts, projecting a target price of $3600 per ounce by March 2026 and $3700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3] - The global demand for gold is expected to grow by 3% this year, reaching 4760 tons, the highest level since 2011 [3] - The current market structure suggests that gold ETFs will continue to attract funds due to uncertainties in global economic recovery and potential monetary policy adjustments [3] Group 4 - Despite the support for gold prices in the medium to long term, analysts caution that short-term fluctuations are likely to persist, and investors should be prudent in their ETF allocations [4] - Recent market movements indicate that personal investors are increasingly favoring smaller gold ETFs, while larger ETFs like SPDR continue to see net inflows [4] - The overall market sentiment suggests that short-term funding may not support a breakout in gold prices, leading to continued volatility [4]

摘要今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，伦敦金现最新价为3333.17美元/盎司，上涨2.32美元，涨幅0.07%， 日内波动区间在3325.67-3339.07美元/盎司。 从1小时线来看，K线形态上走出了一定的短期波动趋势，但整体走势仍受到上方关键阻力位的制约。 短期需要关注关键阻力位的突破情况，若能有效突破阻力位，黄金价格有望进一步上行；反之，若受阻 回落，则可能延续震荡或下行走势。 不仅如此，这家坐落于蒙特利尔的研究公司还洞察到另一关键趋势——美元或将进一步走弱，这无疑将 为黄金价格提供额外的支撑。Ibrahim补充说："展望未来数月，美元大概率会延续贬值态势。正如BCA 新兴市场团队近期所热议的那样，全球货币体系正经历一场深刻的范式变革，美元有可能演变为顺周期 货币。在此背景下，美国经常账户余额将成为影响美元走势的核心要素。当外国投资组合净额及资金流 入难以匹配美国庞大的经常账户赤字时，美元势必面临贬值压力。" 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 黄金价格近期呈现震荡态势。此前黄金价格从高位回调，整体价格波动较大。目前，黄金价格处于均线 系统的复杂交织区域，短期均线对价格形成一定的压制，而长期均线则提供一定支撑，显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent decline of 0.20% and a 3.34% increase over the past three months, indicating a mixed short-term performance while long-term prospects remain positive due to macroeconomic factors [2][3]. Market Performance - As of August 19, 2025, the gold ETF fund's latest price is 7.39 yuan, with a trading volume of 1.40 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.5% [2]. - The fund has seen an average daily trading volume of 6.71 billion yuan over the past month, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is expected to draw significant investor attention, particularly regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which may provide insights into future monetary policy [2]. - UBS has raised its gold price forecasts, projecting a target price of $3,600 per ounce by March 2026 and $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, citing factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [2]. Investment Trends - Short-term expectations indicate a strong fluctuation in gold prices, with medium-term interest rate cuts likely to anchor prices [3]. - The gold ETF fund has experienced a net outflow of 13.31 million yuan recently, but has attracted a total of 88.27 million yuan over the past 12 trading days [3]. Fund Performance Metrics - The gold ETF fund has achieved a net value increase of 75.11% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. - Historical performance shows a maximum monthly return of 10.62% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [3]. Risk and Fee Structure - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [5]. - The fund has a tracking error of 0.002% over the past three months, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [5].

Core Viewpoint - German Commercial Bank indicates that U.S. companies may pass on tariff costs to consumers, which will heighten economic concerns and lead to a weaker dollar [1] Group 1 - U.S. companies are likely to transfer tariff costs to consumers [1] - This transfer of costs could exacerbate economic worries [1] - A weaker dollar is anticipated as a consequence of these developments [1]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月18日丨德国商业银行的Michael Pfister在报告中表示，美国企业可能将关税成本转嫁给消费 者，这将加剧对经济的担忧，并导致美元走弱。这会增加通胀压力，并可能迫使消费者减少支出。"由 于美国消费者是美国增长的主要驱动力，这可能会加深对实体经济的担忧。"更高的通胀数据可能会愈 发明显。然而，考虑到美联储面临降息的政治压力，在这种情形下美联储是否会停止政策宽松仍存疑 问。德商银行预计，欧元兑美元EUR/USD将稳步上涨直至2026年底。 ...

格隆汇8月18日｜高盛集团策略师表示，标普500指数成份股企业在本财报季业绩远超预期，原因在于它 们找到方法削弱关税冲击，并从美元走弱中获益。随着二季度财报季接近尾声，标普500指数企业的整 体每股盈利同比增长11%，远高于市场一致预期的4%。"本季度创下了史上盈利超预期最为频繁的情况 之一，"高盛美国首席股票策略师David Kostin在报告中写道。美国企业在面对关税时利润率表现好于预 期，因其能够与供应商谈判、调整供应链、削减成本，并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者。此外，分析师在春 季因特朗普关税大幅下调盈利预期，也让企业在低基数下更容易实现"超预期"。高盛策略师表示，美元 走弱也推动了二季度销售增速加快。 ...