摘要周二(1月27日)亚欧盘中，地缘动荡与债务失控构成贵金属配置的核心逻辑。央行与ETF对黄金的需 求激增正持续推升金价。德银在最新展望中指出，全球地缘紧张常态化及政府债务扩张将长期支撑贵金 属，叠加美元走弱与结构性供需失衡，今年金价有望涨至6000美元/盎司。该行强调，任何约10%的回 调均是难得的加仓良机。 德银最新报告揭示，地缘动荡常态化与全球债务失控正重塑资产配置逻辑。供应链独立化推高成本，资 源民族主义加剧战略资源囤积，叠加IMF预警2029年全球政府债务占GDP比例或升至100%(不利情景达 123%)，美元持续贬值预期下，贵金属及实物资产成核心避险标的。 供需端呈现显著缺口：2022-2026年央行与ETF净增需求965吨，回收黄金334吨、矿产增量仅145吨，仅 能覆盖半数需求。值得注意的是，2025年四季度芬兰、巴西等传统发达经济体加入购金行列，央行购金 范围突破新兴市场边界;同期ETF持仓五年来首现净流入，规模仍处低位预示增持潜力。 德银强调，本轮黄金涨势源于美元资产冻结风险、非美资产配置需求及债务长期化等结构性驱动，较 1980年代抗通胀逻辑更具持续性。尽管市场已现拥挤多头持仓，短期或现 ...

地缘政治风险加剧、美元走弱，金价突 破历史高位 ——黄金周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 2026 年 1 月 27 日 地缘政治风险加剧、美元走弱，金价突破历史高位。上周五 （1 月 23 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五上涨 8.07%至 1115.64 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周五上涨 8.30% 至 4983.10 美元/盎司；现货方面，黄金 T+D 现货价格上涨 7.69%至1110.35元/克，伦敦金现货价格上涨8.31%至4981.31 美元/盎司。具体来看，上周特朗普政府就格陵兰岛问题对欧 洲八国发起关税威胁，同时还多次威胁军事干涉伊朗局势，加 之此前对委内瑞拉的霸权措施，这意味着地缘政治风险持续扩 大、全球经贸环境不确定性加剧，显著推升市场避险情绪，金 价随之大幅上涨。此外，由于市场高度警惕日本政府可能出手 干预汇市，上周五日本央行会议后日元剧烈反弹，日元对美元 汇价大幅上涨，引发美元走弱，也是推动黄金价格大涨的原因 之一。整体上看，受地缘政治风险加剧、美元走弱提振，上周 金价突破历史高位。 本周（1 月 26 日当周）金价料将继 ...

早上好，先来关注下黄金和白银。 26日晚，白银价格加速上涨。伦敦银现货价格涨幅扩大至12%，纽约期银主力合约涨逾16%。 不过，今天凌晨，黄金与白银价格大幅回调，伦敦银现货价格转跌，报约103美元/盎司，此前最高触及117美元/盎司。伦敦金现货价格同样转跌，一度跌 破5000美元/盎司，此前在5100美元/盎司附近运行。 消息面上，据CCTV国际时讯最新报道，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"发文称，由于韩国国会未批准并落实此前与美国达成的贸易协议，美国 将提高对韩国商品征收的关税——他已决定将对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对等关税项目的税率从15%上调至25%。 此外，特朗普在接受采访时表示，并未完全排除通过外交途径解决伊朗问题的可能性，他同时认为伊朗方面"确实希望与美国达成协议"。 据新华社报道，负责中东地区美军行动的美军中央司令部26日在社交媒体发布消息说，美国海军"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰打击群"正部署到中东"。稍 早时候，美国哥伦比亚广播公司新闻部网站援引一名美国官员的话报道，该航母打击群已经驶入美军中央司令部辖区。 截至收盘，伦敦金现货价格下跌0.77%，报5000.2美元/盎司，较日内 ...

亚洲交易时段美元疲软带动金属板块普遍上涨，现货白银与黄金早盘均创历史新高。尽管涨幅显著， Pepperstone分析师迈克尔·布朗认为贵金属的基本面看涨理由依然坚实。他指出央行储备需求稳健，且 市场参与者持续寻求美元以外的多元化配置，工业用途也为白银提供额外助力。这位高级研究策略师在 报告中表示："毋庸置疑，贵金属在短期内已实现大幅上涨，这意味着阶段性盘整并无坏处，但中期 的'最小阻力路径'仍指向上行。" 责任编辑：王许宁 亚洲交易时段美元疲软带动金属板块普遍上涨，现货白银与黄金早盘均创历史新高。尽管涨幅显著， Pepperstone分析师迈克尔·布朗认为贵金属的基本面看涨理由依然坚实。他指出央行储备需求稳健，且 市场参与者持续寻求美元以外的多元化配置，工业用途也为白银提供额外助力。这位高级研究策略师在 报告中表示："毋庸置疑，贵金属在短期内已实现大幅上涨，这意味着阶段性盘整并无坏处，但中期 的'最小阻力路径'仍指向上行。" 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 德邦证券指出，贵金属与有色金属表现强势。具体来看，国际商品中"贵金属领涨，银价飙升，锡、 金、镍价大涨"。国内市场同样呈现"贵金属、有色、能化强势，白银领涨"的格局，并提到"金属分化， 有色大多强势"。地缘局势方面，"格陵兰局势升级引发美欧分化，美元转弱，贵金属攀升"是推动价格 的重要因素。整体而言，在美元走弱的背景下，以贵金属和部分基本金属为代表的有色金属行业价格表 现强劲。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices may continue to be supported by a weakening US dollar, according to analyst Alexandra Symeonidi from William Blair [1] - Rising geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties have justified the recent increase in gold prices [1] - The ongoing trend of reserve diversification indicates that central banks may continue to be substantial net buyers of gold this year [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: January 26 - 30, 2026 [1] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but short - term risks of high - level corrections exist [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [8]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is strongly rising, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Driving Factors: Last week's strong rise was driven by geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, a weak dollar, and interest - rate cut expectations [7]. - Support: Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support [7]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators and policy uncertainties [7]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy path and global macroeconomic data [7]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a resistance level of 1045 - 1050 yuan/gram and a support level of 1020 - 1025 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a support level of 1085 - 1095 yuan/gram. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [11]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, at a sensitive position in the head. There is a possibility of trend reversal. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, and there is a certain risk of a market turn [12]. 1.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold price difference between domestic and foreign markets [18][21][23][25][28] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds drive the price up. In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up, but short - term correction risks exist [32]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [32]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is strongly rising, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Driving Factors: Last week's price increase was driven by geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds [32]. - Support: In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up due to the growth of green industry demand, continuous supply - demand gaps, and asset allocation diversification [32]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators, ETF reductions, and policy uncertainties [32]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy and global manufacturing PMI [32]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2604 was trading at a high level, with a resistance level of 23,200 - 23,700 yuan and a support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/kg. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is trading at a high level, with a support level of 22,500 - 23,000 yuan/kg. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [36]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, possibly near the end of the trend. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, with large capital inflows and increased attention. The external market had a significant pre - opening increase [37]. 2.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver price difference between domestic and foreign markets [43][46][48]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【1月26日：美联储汇率询价或引美元走弱预期】1月26日，澳洲联邦银行驻奥克兰机构外汇销售主管 称，这是十多年来美联储首次对一种货币进行汇率询价。此前美联储虽有威胁，但此次真正行动与以往 行事方式差异大，意味着进入新体制。目前已出现一波反美元走势，外界也有《广场协议2.0》讨论， 若成真或预示美元走弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The intervention by the New York Federal Reserve could significantly amplify the appreciation of the Japanese yen, indicating a strategic move beyond mere symbolism [1] Group 1 - Macquarie Group strategist Gareth Berry suggests that if the New York Fed intervenes, it would not only increase the momentum of yen appreciation but also signal a broader intention for a weaker dollar under Trump's administration [1] - Japan possesses a substantial amount of dollars available for sale, but the New York Fed's dollar reserves are virtually limitless, which could enhance the impact of such an intervention [1]

格隆汇1月26日｜澳洲联邦银行驻奥克兰机构外汇销售主管Tim Kelleher表示，"这是十多年来美联储首 次对一种货币进行汇率询价。他们以前也发出过威胁，但真正付诸行动，这与他们的行事方式有很大不 同。我们正处在一个新的体制...我们已经看到一波反美元的走势。外界也不时出现关于《广场协议2.0》 的讨论，若真如此将意义重大，并预示着美元可能走弱。" ...