Core Insights - Barclays economists suggest that the May CPI report may show initial signs of price pressures related to tariffs [1] - The April CPI inflation rate in the U.S. decreased for three consecutive months, reaching 2.3%, moving closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] Group 1 - The April CPI data is viewed as a temporary low point, indicating potential volatility in future reports [1] - High-frequency data tracked by Barclays indicates potential price increase pressures across a wide range of core categories, including clothing, home goods, new cars, and other items [1]

[table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间6月6日，美国劳工局公布2025年5月美国非农就业数据。美国5月季调后非 农就业人口新增13.9万人，预期12.6万人，前值14.7万人。5月失业率维持在4.2%不变。 总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [就业表面虽有韧性，背后暗涌 Table_NewTitle] 不容忽视 ——海外观察：美国2025年5月非农数据 liusj@longone.com.cn ➢ 核心观点：美国5月非农新增就业数据保持温和降温的态势，虽略高于预期，但需要注意 的是 "小非农"ADP的意外回落已经降低了市场对于当月NFP的预期。分项来看，服务 行业依然是主要就业贡献部门，并且呈现边际增速上升的态势；生产部门就业市场降温明 显，或是由于零售部门持续低迷使得生产部门放缓了产出。值得注意的是，除了零售和运 输，几乎所有部门5月时薪增速均呈现出 ...

Core Insights - Gold is a global safe-haven asset, and its price fluctuations are closely related to U.S. inflation data. Understanding the linkage between inflation indicators and the gold market can help investors grasp market dynamics [1] Group 1: Key Inflation Indicators - The U.S. inflation monitoring system consists of three main indicators: 1. Consumer Price Index (CPI): Reflects changes in prices of consumer goods and services, directly impacting purchasing power. A sustained rise in CPI often indicates increased inflation pressure and heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3] 2. Producer Price Index (PPI): Monitors prices of raw materials and intermediate goods in the production sector, typically serving as a leading indicator for CPI. An increase in PPI usually gradually transmits to the consumer end, indirectly affecting gold market sentiment [3] 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): Covers a broader range of consumer behavior data, making it an important reference for Federal Reserve policy-making due to its flexible statistical methods [3] Group 2: Inflation's Impact on Gold Prices - The influence of inflation data on the gold market operates through multiple mechanisms [5] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - During inflation data release periods, investors should pay attention to: 1. Real interest rate effect: When inflation growth exceeds nominal interest rates, real interest rates decline, reducing the cost of holding gold and supporting gold prices [7] 2. Expectation volatility effect: Market speculation prior to data release can lead to gold sell-offs if CPI exceeds expectations, while underperforming data may stimulate safe-haven buying [7] 3. Policy transmission effect: The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy based on inflation; persistent inflation may delay interest rate cuts, potentially putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but long-term stagflation risks still provide support [7] Group 4: Monitoring and Analysis - Investors should monitor the release schedule of CPI, PPI, and PCE data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce [8] - Historical data analysis and market reaction patterns should be examined for regularity [10] - Establishing a two-way trading mindset can help mitigate risks from data exceeding expectations [10] - Choosing trading platforms with robust risk control mechanisms is advisable [10]

Core Viewpoint - Weak U.S. inflation data is seen as a contradictory factor in the U.S. bond market, supporting recent recovery in economic confidence while simultaneously dampening concerns over rampant inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - Weak inflation data signals a temporary limitation on the potential for bearish sentiment towards bonds, as it alleviates fears of rising inflation [1] - The risk of sustained inflation in the U.S. is not a primary concern for investors at this moment [1]

Group 1 - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly silver and gold, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. inflation and retail sales data [2][3] - Silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8110 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.72%, and trading ranged from a low of 8052 yuan to a high of 8165 yuan [1] - International gold prices rose by 1.99% to 3239.66 USD per ounce, while silver increased by 1.26% to 32.616 USD per ounce, indicating a recovery after initial declines [2] Group 2 - The U.S. April PPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below expectations, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, with a small chance of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting market expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are causing uncertainty in the market, leading to a cautious outlook on silver futures, with industrial demand being a key factor to monitor [3]

Core Insights - Recent US inflation data shows a cooling trend, which enhances expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, positively impacting risk assets like cryptocurrencies [4][12] - Improvement in US-China trade relations, with both sides agreeing to lower tariffs, provides additional support for Bitcoin [4][12] Current Price Trends - Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at approximately $2,584.98, down about 3.13% from the previous day, but has seen a remarkable weekly increase of 43.05% [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $103,197, down about 0.42% from the previous day, maintaining a strong support level above $100,000 [4] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's technical indicators show a neutral to strong RSI, with a slight decline in momentum, while MACD remains bullish [4] - Ethereum's technical indicators indicate a strong upward trend, having successfully broken through long-term resistance levels [5] Market Sentiment - The Fear and Greed Index for the cryptocurrency market is at 70, indicating a "greed" level, which suggests optimism among market participants but also hints at potential overheating risks [4][7] ETF Fund Flows - Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a net outflow of approximately $9.6 million, led by Fidelity's FBTC, breaking a 20-day streak of net inflows [4] - In contrast, Ethereum ETFs have seen significant inflows, with $1.35 million net inflow on May 14, indicating a shift in institutional interest from Bitcoin to Ethereum [9] Investment Strategies - Suggested entry points for Bitcoin are in the $100,000-$101,000 range, with a primary target of $105,000 and a stop-loss set below $98,500 [4] - For Ethereum, a buying strategy is recommended in the $2,400-$2,500 support area, with targets of $2,800 and $3,000 [9] Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict Ethereum could reach $5,000 by 2025, driven by its status as the only approved spot Bitcoin ETF alternative, technological advancements, and overall bullish market trends [9][12] - The overall market is in a mid-bull phase, with recommendations to maintain a 65-70% overall position in cryptocurrencies, adjusting Bitcoin and Ethereum allocations to capture potential excess returns [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting more information to make informed decisions regarding interest rates and inflation trends [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, which was below market expectations of 2.4% [1] - Federal Reserve officials, including Goolsbee, suggest that the current inflation data may not provide significant signals for policy changes, emphasizing the need for a longer-term perspective on inflation trends [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 54 basis points by the end of the year, with the next potential cut anticipated in September [2] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to persist, impacting economic growth and leading to a potential stagflation scenario in the U.S., while other international markets may experience different trends [2] - Investment strategies are shifting, with increased allocations to international markets outside the U.S., such as Europe and emerging markets, while reducing exposure to U.S. equities and government bonds [2]

换资前言： 一个人如果没有了目标和信念，哪怕有再多人给你指引，也是徒劳。问问自己心中所想做这个投资的目 的是什么？达到了吗？还差多远？需要怎样的条件才可以早日完成自己的目标。我很高兴，你能来了 解，我愿意帮助那些相信我的人，信任，就好比把小孩儿扔向天空，她依然可以笑着，因为她相信你一 定可以接住，信任，也是所有合作的起源，如果抱着怀疑的态度合作，那么这样的合作是不长久的，盈 利绝对不是一单的输赢，赚钱绝对不是一次的博弈，当你愿意放下过去的思维。哪怕，你闭着眼睛，晟 富也绝对不会让你迷路！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三(5月14日)亚市尾盘，现货黄金维持日内跌势，目前金价位于3235美元/盎司附近，日内重挫近20美 元。黄金价格逆转周三早些时候从周低点反弹的势头，由于投资者对美国可能与一些主要贸易伙伴达成 贸易协议持乐观态度，卖家试图重新控制金价。受逢低买盘推动，金价周二反弹，而当天公布的美国通 胀数据比预期疲软，也帮助金价上涨。不过，贸易乐观情绪限制金价的反弹力度。现货黄金周二收盘上 涨0.46%，报3249.90美元/盎司。在最近的美英贸易协定和对中国关税暂停90天之后， ...

Group 1 - The USD/CHF exchange rate is currently stabilizing around 0.8390 after a sharp decline in April, indicating attempts to form a bottom despite ongoing downside risks indicated by technical indicators [1][3] - The weakness in USD/CHF is primarily driven by two factors: lower-than-expected US inflation data and improving global trade relations, which have pressured the dollar [3] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, down from 2.4% in March and below market expectations, reinforcing expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has expressed readiness to intervene in the currency market and may consider further interest rate cuts or even negative interest rates if inflation remains below target levels, indicating concerns over the Swiss franc's strength [3] - The USD/CHF exchange rate is attempting to find a supportive base above the 0.8350 level, which represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last bearish wave [3] - The relative strength index (RSI) has entered an exaggerated oversold level, suggesting the formation of positive divergence, which may indicate a potential bullish correction trend [4]

相关链接 期货热点追踪 尽管美国通胀数据连续第三个月低于预期，黄金价格仍持续下跌，不过机构指出，价格已逼近关键支撑 水平！ ...