Fundamental Analysis - Weak non-farm payrolls and limited CPI increase, combined with pressure from Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, have led to high market expectations for a rate cut in September, putting pressure on the dollar and allowing gold to rebound [1] - Upcoming data on July PPI and initial jobless claims is anticipated; if PPI remains moderate and jobless claims increase, it is expected to provide further upward momentum for gold [1] Technical Analysis - The one-hour chart for gold shows a bullish trend after a period of consolidation, indicating increased buying interest; if there is a pullback that does not break previous support, the upward trend may continue, suggesting a short-term long position [2] - Suggested trading strategy for gold includes a long position at 3358, with a stop loss below 3346 and a target range of 3374-3385 [4] Technical Analysis (Oil) - The one-hour chart for WTI crude oil indicates that it has failed to break resistance and is experiencing a pullback, reflecting strong selling pressure; if the price does not break resistance on the next rebound, the downward trend may continue, suggesting a short position [5] - Suggested trading strategy for oil includes a short position at 62.17, with a stop loss above 63.12 and a target range of 60.74-61.34 [6]

他重申了本周早些时候的观点，即对于7月消费者价格指数(CPI)中显示的高企服务业通胀感到担忧，但 强调不应对单月数据反应过度，包括周五公布的进口价格上涨数据。 今年以来，美联储官员一直按兵不动，维持利率不变，以观察关税和其他政策变化对美国经济的影响。 根据利率期货市场的定价，投资者普遍押注美联储将在9月会议上重启降息。古尔斯比则强调，希望等 待更多经济数据出炉，并指出美国经济"依然有很多韧性"。 美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，在确信持续的通胀压力未再升温之前，他希望至少再看到一份通胀 数据。 古尔斯比周五在接受采访时表示，近期的通胀数据"有些参差不齐"，他认为"至少还需要再看一份数 据，才能判断我们是否依然走在'黄金路径'上。" 与此同时，美国工业产出在7月环比下降0.1%，占比四分之三的制造业产出在6月上修后保持不变，采 矿和公用事业产出双双下滑。制造业年初曾在关税出台前接到大量订单，但自此以后，受需求降温、资 本支出放缓及贸易政策不确定性影响，产量趋于疲软。生产商还面临消费者支出不均、关税推高部分原 材料价格等挑战。 在贸易政策方面，美国总统特朗普周五在飞往阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统普京会晤途中表示，将在未来 ...

Group 1 - Economist Marc Sumerlin stated that the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is "too high" and that a 50 basis point rate cut is feasible due to an inverted yield curve [1] - Sumerlin emphasized that the housing market is the weakest part of the U.S. economy [1] - He does not believe there is an issue with the size of the Federal Reserve's staff, but rather that the "setup is completely wrong" [1] Group 2 - Sumerlin mentioned that the problem lies in "redundancy" within the Federal Reserve [2] - He is noted to have been a former official during the George W. Bush administration and is reportedly being considered for the position of Federal Reserve Chair [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an aluminum industry weekly report, covering market conditions from multiple aspects including macro - economy, supply and demand [5] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - There are signs of improvement in overall consumer spending and aluminum production is gradually resolving power - related issues [8] - The domestic spot price has shifted from a discount to par [46] Bearish Factors - The US PPI is expected to continue to decline and social inventories may exceed expectations [8] Group 3: Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - US July CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, and PPI soared 0.9% year - on - year and month - on - month. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are high but there is still room for debate [10] - China has introduced multiple policies to boost consumption, such as personal and service - sector loan subsidy policies, and 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment upgrades have been allocated [14] Supply - side Data - From January to July 2025, China's bauxite production was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, it was 5.4345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. However, due to the rainy season in Guinea, future imports may decline [16][18] - Alumina supply has an excess expectation. Overseas prices are falling, and domestic prices are oscillating weakly [22][24] - In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In August, the output was 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. But the growth space is limited [26] Demand - side Data - Affected by the off - season, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises is declining. However, the automobile industry is booming, with new energy vehicle production in July 2025 reaching 1.176 million units, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The real estate market is still bottoming out [32][36][38] Inventory Data - LME aluminum inventories are rising, while SHFE aluminum inventories are falling. Aluminum ingot social inventories are accumulating, but the current level is relatively low [41][44] Price and Cost Data - The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year [29] - The price of aluminum alloy futures tends to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum futures [57] Group 4: Future Outlook - Aluminum prices have good support below, and attention should be paid to the support at the 40 - day moving average of 20,600 [59]

Domestic Policies - The US-China trade talks resulted in a 90-day suspension of a 24% tariff on each other's goods, effective August 12, 2025[6] - A personal consumption loan subsidy policy was introduced, offering a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans used for consumption from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026[8] - A service industry loan subsidy policy was also announced, providing a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans to eight specified service sectors, with a maximum loan amount of 1 million yuan per entity[11] Economic Indicators - China's final consumption expenditure contributed 52.0% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, up 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter[10] - In July, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, exceeding expectations[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.9%[19] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.05% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 0.11% and copper prices increased by 0.95%[23] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 2.12% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 2.82% rise[33] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of August decreased by 4% year-on-year, despite a 6% increase compared to the previous month[33] Future Outlook - The upcoming focus includes the US NAHB housing market index and new housing starts data, as well as the Jackson Hole global central bank conference later in August[2] - The market anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent economic data and inflation trends[21]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.37%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.97%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.23% [2] - The total market turnover increased to HKD 270.12 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 19.42 billion, representing 13.66% of the total turnover [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.034 billion, with the most bought stocks being China Life, Alibaba, Li Auto, and SMIC, while Tencent, Meituan, and Crystal International saw the most net selling [2] Group 2: Company Analysis - 361 Degrees (1361.HK) - 361 Degrees reported a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year to HKD 5.7 billion for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 9% to HKD 860 million [9][10] - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.204 per share, raising the payout ratio to 45% [9][10] - The e-commerce channel showed strong performance with a 45% year-on-year growth, accounting for 32% of total revenue, and the gross margin improved to 41.5% due to cost control and price increases [10][11] - The company is actively exploring new channel development opportunities, with plans to increase the number of super stores to 100 by the end of the year [11] Group 3: Industry Insights - The biotechnology sector experienced a surge following the announcement of positive clinical trial results for a new drug by Rongchang Biotech, leading to significant gains in related stocks [3] - Insurance stocks performed strongly, with Sunshine Insurance rising over 7% and other major insurers also closing higher [4] - The overall consumer environment remains challenging, yet 361 Degrees has maintained its full-year guidance, indicating resilience in its business strategy [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, indicating strong inflationary pressures due to recent tariff policies, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][2]. - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month, far exceeding the expected 0.2%, and year-over-year, it rose by 3.3%, marking the fastest growth since February 2025 [1]. - Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, also saw its largest increase since 2022, suggesting widespread inflationary pressures across various sectors [1]. Group 2 - Service prices led the increase, rising by 1.1%, the largest gain since March 2022, with notable increases in investment management, securities brokerage, and lodging prices [1]. - Commodity prices rose by 0.7%, driven primarily by a 1.4% increase in food costs, with fresh and dried vegetable prices surging nearly 39% in a single month [1]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will still implement a 25 basis point rate cut in September, despite the surprising PPI data, which may lead to a reassessment of future rate cut expectations [2]. Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuated significantly, with a recent drop to 147.31, reflecting the ongoing impact of economic data and central bank policy expectations on currency movements [1][3]. - Technical traders are advised to monitor the USD/JPY within the range of 145.80 to 149.00, as a breakout above the 200-day moving average could signal further upward movement towards the 151.50 target [3]. - Conversely, a downward break could lead to a target near the June low of 143.00, indicating potential volatility in the currency pair [3].

2025 年 08 月 15 日 铅：库存减少，价格获支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16770 | -0.95% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1988 | -1.39% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 45616 | 16679 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4632 | -935 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51370 | 1946 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 154530 | 682 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | - ...

过去几天，美股的大涨、以及全球股市的狂欢，似乎都在为庆祝一件事情，那就是因为不及预期的CPI数据，或者说美联储内部对降息的分歧，市场存在另 外一种预期，那就是9月份不仅仅降息25个基点，可能出现大幅度降息。 香港恒生指数 最新:25519.320 25778 25737 25696 25655 25614 25573 25532 25491 25450 3.32 2.21 1.11 亿 09:30 10:30 10:00 当然这个事情也有背后的呼吁者，美国财长贝森特在接受采访的时候表示，觉得未来会进行一系列降息，9月份先降息50个基点，这让市场有些震惊，还有 就是贝森特觉得不管参考哪种模型，利率未来可能都应该降低到150至175个基点。 我感觉昨天A股调整，多少与此有些关联度，包括港股在下午的回落，当然主要原因还是在市场自身，因为核心蓝筹的大幅度拉升，使得市场资金的分歧开 始加大，特别是最终造成了4000多只个股下跌，一般而言当大部分个股下跌的时候，仅仅有少部分个股上涨的路也不会太长，这对A股来说如此情形已经演 绎了很多次。 所以接下来的走势，我大概率觉得市场震荡几天，拉升指数的蓝筹股短期内该休息了，因为任务 ...

2025.08. 15 本文字数：1166，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周四涨跌不一，标普500指数微升0.03%续创收盘新高，道指和纳指则几乎持平，高于预 期的通胀数据抑制了投资者对美联储年内降息幅度的预期，压制了股市上行动能。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数微跌0.02%报44911.26点；标普500指数涨0.03%报6468.54点；纳斯达克 指数跌0.01%报21710.67点。标普500指数11个板块中七个下跌。 CFRA Research首席投资策略师萨姆·斯托瓦尔（Sam Stovall）称，按远期市盈率计算，标普500 当前估值较20年均值高出近四成，PPI数据的超预期让投资者对降息前景更为犹豫。 美国劳工部数据显示，7月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，为三年来最大单月升幅，远高于 市场预期的0.2%；同比升幅3.3%，亦超出预期的2.5%。剔除食品和能源后的核心PPI环比涨幅 0.9%，同比上涨3.7%，大幅高于前一个月2.6%的同比增长。 数据反映，服务和商品成本齐升，通 胀回落进程可能面临阻力。 受此影响， 伦敦证交所集团（LSEG）数据显示，市场对美联储今 ...