美联储理事米兰：12月降息是非常适宜的。近期数据已经让FOMC加大降息力度提供了可能。 ...

美联储官员米兰：近期数据让降息理由更充分。 来源：滚动播报 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月14日｜路透社市场分析师Jeremy Boulton表示，外汇交易员可能会考虑，他们长期担忧的股 市回调是否终于开始了。但股市跌得越深，12月降息的可能性就越高。目前市场定价美联储12月降息25 个基点的概率约为52%。此轮获利了结，主要源于投资者担心12月将不会降息。但留意重点：这是一次 获利了结，而非亏损头寸的被迫平仓。交易员往往会在调整后重新建立盈利头寸，而本轮回调正提供了 更具吸引力的入场水平。若出现较预期更早的降息刺激因素，将给交易员提供行动的理由。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 14, 2025, the domestic futures market shows a mixed performance. Some commodities like apples and soybeans have risen, while others such as methanol and glass have declined. Different commodities face various supply - demand situations, influenced by factors such as production, consumption, policies, and geopolitical events. Most commodities are expected to show weak and volatile trends due to factors like supply - demand imbalances, uncertain policies, and market sentiment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and policy - related procurement issues, with a decrease in the overall smelter operating rate. Demand is weak, with a decline in downstream copper product operating rates and an increase in inventory. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut in the US, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, but the tight copper ore supply provides some support [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has increased slightly. Supply shows growth, with an increase in domestic production and a decrease in imports from Chile. Demand is strong, driven by the energy - storage battery market. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the market is expected to remain strong after a correction [10]. - **Aluminum**: No relevant information provided. - **Nickel**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. - **Tin**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price. Demand has entered the off - season, and the overall inventory is increasing. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the situation of Russian oil exports needs to be monitored. The market is expected to be in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [11][13]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - **Bitumen**: Supply has decreased, with a decline in the operating rate and production volume. Demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and it is expected to weaken further. The supply - surplus situation of crude oil has led to a decline in prices, and the bitumen futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [14]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The downstream operating rate is low, and the production proportion of standard products has decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is also low. Supply has increased with new capacity. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The demand in the peak season is not as expected, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [17]. - **PVC**: The supply operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has also declined slightly. The export situation is affected by policies, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in the adjustment stage, and the price is expected to be in a state of shock adjustment [19]. Agricultural Products - **Apples**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - **Soybeans**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The price has increased slightly. Supply has increased with the recovery of Mongolian coal imports and domestic production. The inventory situation varies among different sectors. The demand is affected by the weakening profitability of steel mills, and the market is expected to weaken [20][21]. - **Urea**: The price has remained stable with a slight decline. Supply has increased with new production capacity. The demand is affected by environmental inspections and the off - season of agricultural demand. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is expected to be in a short - term strong adjustment [22]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all declined [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year contract has declined slightly, the 5 - year and 10 - year contracts have remained flat, and the 30 - year contract has increased slightly [6].

1、11月14日隔夜要闻一览 1、美国总统特朗普的首席经济智囊周四表示，10月就业报告将公布，但不会包含失业率数据。2、 哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）援引多位知情人士报道称，美军高级将领周三向总统特朗普未来几天在委内 瑞拉开展潜在行动的各种方案。 3、当地时间11月13日，一名美国国防部官员表示，美国国防部在本周 早些时候对一艘位于加勒比海地区的"贩毒船"发动了袭击。4、白宫在一份声明中表示，美国与阿根廷 达成贸易协议框架，双方同意在关键商品领域相互开放市场。5、欧洲金融稳定官员正在讨论通过整合 美国以外央行持有的美元储备，建立一个替代美联储流动性支持机制的方案。6、美国短期利率衍生品 合约显示，市场预期美联储在12月降息25基点可能性不足50%。7、受新一轮避险情绪和科技股抛售拖 累，比特币周四跌破10万美元大关。8、马斯克在社交平台X上发文称，关于xAI在E轮融资中筹集150亿 美元的报道是"不实"的。9、知情人士表示，特斯拉正在开发支持苹果公司CarPlay系统的功能。这是客 户长期以来呼声最高的功能之一。10、波音公司位于圣路易斯地区的工厂工人投票接受了公司最新提出 的五年期合同提案，结束了这家飞机制造 ...

| Millio | 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月14日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属冲高回落波动较大。随着美国结束史上最长政府停摆，市场等待经济数据继续权衡经济和货币政 策前景，美联储官员发言多数偏鹰体现分歧依然很大，白宫警告10月非农与通胀数据可能不会公布。国际金 银短期持续上行驱动有限,关注前高位置阻力。 ★特朗普:政府停摆造成1.5万亿美元损失,真正计算出损失的总体影响需要数周甚至数月的时间。 ★美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:近期将公布十月份的就业报告，但不会包含失业率，预计第四季度 GDP将因政府停摆而下降1.5%。看不到不降息的太多理由。 ★美联储鹰派继续释放谨慎信号，戴利称现在断言12月一定会降息或不会降息还为时过 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market: A-share major indices declined collectively this week, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 and ChiNext indices falling by over 3%. The four stock index futures also declined. The market's trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. The market is expected to continue its weak recovery in the fourth quarter [9][15]. - Bond market: This week, Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short-term weakness and long-term strength, and the capital market tightened slightly. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be seen. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, and the scope for further monetary easing this year is limited [9]. - Commodity market: China's PPI in October rebounded significantly, supporting the commodity index. However, gold and crude oil are expected to remain volatile. Given their large weights in the commodity index, the commodity index is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. - Foreign exchange market: The US dollar index continued to decline under pressure this week. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to oscillate in the short term. The euro area's economic outlook continued to improve, and the euro was supported in the medium term. The Japanese yen remained under pressure [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.08%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures dropped by 1.26%. A-share major indices opened higher on Monday due to the inflation data released on Sunday, oscillated from Tuesday to Thursday, and declined significantly on Friday due to weak economic data in October. The recommendation is to buy on dips [9]. - **Bond**: The 10-year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.03%, and the main 10-year Treasury bond futures fell by 0.06%. Treasury bond futures showed short-term weakness and long-term strength this week, and the capital market tightened slightly. The recommendation is to trade within a range [9]. - **Commodity**: The Wind Commodity Index rose by 3.92%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index increased by 1.52%. China's PPI in October rebounded significantly, but gold and crude oil are expected to remain volatile. The recommendation is to wait and see [9]. - **Foreign exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose by 0.78%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract increased by 0.68%. The US government shutdown led to a downgraded economic outlook, and the US dollar declined. The recommendation is to be cautious and wait and see [9]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs suspended the implementation of multiple export control measures; China and Spain signed 10 cooperation documents; the State Council issued measures to promote private investment; ten departments promoted the opening and interconnection of logistics data [17]. - **International**: The US government shutdown ended; some Fed officials were cautious about interest rate cuts; the US suspended the implementation of export control penetration rules [13][18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In October, the industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% from January to October, CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year [14]. - **US**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December dropped significantly, and the US dollar oscillated in the short term [13]. - **Eurozone**: The economic outlook continued to improve, and the euro was supported in the medium term [13]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **US**: The industrial output monthly rate in October, the NAHB housing market index in November, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 [78]. - **UK**: The CPI monthly rate in October, the retail price index monthly rate in October, and the Gfk consumer confidence index in November [78]. - **Eurozone**: The CPI annual rate final value in October and the consumer confidence index preliminary value in November [78]. - **China**: The one-year loan prime rate as of November 20 [78]. - **Japan**: The core CPI annual rate in October [78].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of monetary policy, indicating that while there is still some room for adjustment, the marginal efficiency of such policies has significantly declined, suggesting that interest rate cuts are unlikely this year [7]. Monetary Policy and Economic Data - The central bank conducted a 2,128 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 711 billion yuan after 1,417 billion yuan matured [3]. - The overnight rates have slightly increased, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 at approximately 1.47% [4]. - October economic data appears weak, with the stock market experiencing a pullback, falling below 4,000 points, and the central bank continuing to implement reverse repurchase operations [6]. - The bond market showed stability with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.804% [6]. Market Reactions - The article notes that the market quickly understood the implications of the central bank's statements regarding monetary policy, leading to a consensus that interest rate cuts are unlikely this year [7]. - There is a contrast between the experiences of stockholders, who may feel positive about the economy, and those in the labor market, who face different challenges [7]. Bond Market Performance - The weighted rates for various repurchase agreements indicate a slight decrease in transaction volumes, with R001 at 1.43% and R007 at 1.49%, reflecting a decrease in trading activity [5]. - The government bond yields for different maturities show a range of rates, with the 10-year bond at 1.8050% and longer-term bonds yielding higher rates [11].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation with limited fluctuations in both futures and cash bonds, as market participants remain cautious following recent significant news and events [1] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed minimal changes, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.03% to 116.16, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts remained flat at 108.415 and 105.875 respectively [2] - The interbank bond market displayed slight differentiation, with the yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" rising by 0.25 basis points to 1.805%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" fell by 0.15 basis points to 1.8745% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 4.121% [3] - Japanese government bond yields also rose, with the 10-year yield up by 0.4 basis points to 1.699% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased, with French bonds rising by 3.9 basis points to 3.415% and German bonds up by 4.4 basis points to 2.686% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds at 1.78% and 1.81% respectively, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.67 for both [5] - The China Export-Import Bank's 3-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.6579% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 7.72 [6] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation totaling 212.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan for the day [7] - The Shibor rates showed mixed movements, with the overnight rate rising by 4.8 basis points to 1.363% [7] Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that the likelihood of a comprehensive rate cut is low, with the central bank favoring a mix of liquidity management tools rather than standalone rate cuts [9] - The anticipated window for interest rate cuts is expected to open between Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with the bond market likely to price in expectations of monetary easing in advance [9]

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The price of copper is expected to remain elevated due to the suspension of operations at the Grasberg mine, with a projected global copper shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated resumption of production at Grasberg and Panama mines [2][3] - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, leading to potential shortages if supply decreases or demand increases [2][3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by multiple factors including weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China having added gold for 12 consecutive months [3] Group 3: Energy Metals - The introduction of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to lead to a long-term increase in cobalt prices, with export quotas significantly lower than market expectations [4][5] - The global lithium industry is anticipated to enter a new cycle of prosperity, driven by strong demand from the rapidly growing electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [6] Group 4: Minor Metals - China's dominance in rare earth resources is solidified, with the country controlling approximately 50% of global reserves and 90% of oxide production, leading to a potential increase in prices [7] - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and the easing of export controls, while antimony prices are rebounding following recent export control relaxations [8][9] Group 5: Uranium - The demand for natural uranium is expected to rise in line with increasing nuclear power generation, with projections indicating that China's nuclear power capacity could become the largest in the world by 2030 [10] Group 6: Recommended Stocks - A selection of companies is recommended for investment across various metals, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals [11]