Core Viewpoint - The RMB to USD exchange rate exhibited a subtle balance on August 19, 2025, reflecting the maturity of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and the rationalization of market participants' expectations [2]. Market Performance: Subtle Differences Between Onshore and Offshore - The onshore RMB (CNY) market experienced slight fluctuations, with a low of 7.1870 and a closing rate of 7.1854, alongside a significant trading volume of 34.061 billion USD, indicating high market attention [3]. - The offshore RMB (CNH) showed a stronger performance, peaking at 7.1791 and closing at 7.1875, with a narrowing spread of only 3.2 basis points between onshore and offshore rates, reflecting balanced cross-border capital flows and increasing recognition of the RMB exchange rate mechanism [3]. Subtle Adjustments in the Central Parity Rate: Reflection of Policy Intent - The central parity rate for the RMB against the USD was set at 7.1359, down 37 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating a policy intention to allow moderate depreciation of the RMB amidst a strong USD index [5]. - The adjustment strategy of alternating between increases and decreases in the central parity rate aims to enhance exchange rate flexibility and prevent excessive volatility that could impact the real economy [5]. External Pressures and Internal Support: Interwoven Factors - The strong USD index is primarily influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is expected to maintain high interest rates, putting pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB [6]. - However, the robust fundamentals of the Chinese economy, including recovering industrial production and consumption, provide internal support for the RMB exchange rate [6]. Future Outlook and Risk Management - In the short term, the RMB to USD exchange rate is likely to maintain a two-way fluctuation pattern, with the strong USD exerting pressure while the Chinese economic fundamentals and policy intentions limit depreciation [7]. - In the medium term, a clearer path for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and continued recovery of the Chinese economy may lead to a strengthening of the RMB [7]. - Long-term factors such as the internationalization of the RMB and its increasing weight in the SDR will provide solid support for the exchange rate [7]. Summary: Steady Progress, Promising Future - Overall, the RMB to USD exchange rate on August 19, 2025, demonstrated characteristics of "central parity micro-adjustment and narrow market fluctuations," indicating a mature exchange rate formation mechanism and rational market expectations [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a low - volatility oscillation, waiting for the Fed meeting minutes and the follow - up progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical developments are expected to make gold oscillate and accumulate strength [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Trump hopes Putin will end the Ukraine war but admits Putin may not want an agreement. Trump proposes "air support" for Ukraine's post - war security and arranges bilateral talks between Russian and Ukrainian presidents. The 24th China - India border issue special representative meeting was held in New Delhi. US July building permits were 1354,000, lower than expected, while new housing starts were 1428,000, higher than expected [2] Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold prices oscillated with low volatility. US new housing starts and building permits were divergent, and the lower - than - expected building permits may imply limited sustainability of the strong new housing starts. Last week's US PPI had the largest monthly increase since 2022, suppressing the expectation of a 50 - basis - point rate cut. US retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month in July, in line with expectations, but inflation expectations rose and consumer confidence fell [3] Future Outlook - Before Powell's departure, his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium may balance inflation, employment, politics, and economy, with vague monetary policy signals. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have not resolved the core differences, mainly due to territorial disputes and Russia's opposition to Western military intervention. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting and geopolitical conflicts. The weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot in the range of [36, 40] [4][7][8] Index Information - On August 19, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2223.20, down 0.36%; the commodity 20 index was 2469.40, down 0.26%; the industrial product index was 2256.94, down 0.47%. The precious metal index was 2703.64, with a daily decline of 0.47%, a 5 - day decline of 0.61%, a 1 - month decline of 1.52%, and a year - to - date increase of 22.20% [47][49]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes is expected to provide insights into the internal debates and future policy directions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts amid increasing political pressure [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "hawkish-dovish" debate is intensifying under ongoing political pressure [1] - The July meeting minutes will reveal the underlying tensions behind two dissenting votes, which may influence future interest rate decisions [1] - The timing of the release is set for 2 AM, August 20, indicating a significant moment for market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes is expected to reveal significant insights into the ongoing debate between hawkish and dovish stances, particularly in light of political pressures and dissenting votes in July [1] Group 1 - The minutes will provide clues regarding the future pace of interest rate cuts and overall policy direction [1] - There is an intensifying "hawk-dove" debate within the Federal Reserve, influenced by external political pressures [1] - The July meeting saw two dissenting votes, indicating underlying tensions and differing views among policymakers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD, highlighting the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on the dollar's future trajectory [1]. Currency Exchange Rates - On August 20, the onshore RMB opened slightly lower at 7.1865 against the USD, compared to the previous day's closing rate of 7.1820 [1]. - As of 9:30 AM, the offshore RMB was quoted at 7.19168 against the USD [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate against the USD was set at 7.1384, which is a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Dollar Index - The USD index was fluctuating above the 98 mark, reported at 98.3926 as of 9:30 AM [1]. Future Outlook - HSBC China indicated that the future movement of the USD will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and the potential candidates for the next chairperson [1]. - With the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts, cyclical factors may become more dominant in influencing the dollar's performance [1].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it severely harms the U.S. housing industry and makes it difficult for citizens to obtain mortgages [2][2][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% during its monetary policy meeting on July 30, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates [2][2][2] Trump's Statements - Trump asserts that there are "no signs of inflation" and that "all signals point to a significant rate cut" [2][2][2] - He labels Powell as "a disaster" and has repeatedly called for substantial rate cuts [2][2][2] - Trump has indicated plans to appoint a new Federal Reserve chairman ahead of schedule [2][2][2] Legal Considerations - The White House confirmed that Trump is considering legal action against Powell regarding the rising costs of renovations at the Federal Reserve headquarters [2][2][2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it severely harms the U.S. housing industry and makes it difficult for many Americans to obtain mortgages [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve announced on July 30 that it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates [2] - Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts and has suggested that Powell should resign [2] Group 2: Trump's Actions and Statements - Trump stated that there are "no signs of inflation" and that "all signals point to a significant rate cut" [2] - On August 13, Trump mentioned he would appoint a new Federal Reserve chairman ahead of schedule [2] - The White House confirmed that Trump is considering suing Powell over the rising costs of renovations at the Federal Reserve headquarters [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk preference remains stable, and gold is in a box - range oscillation due to the slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] - Gold prices failed to continue the upward trend after a rebound and fell back to around $3340 per ounce. The gold market is affected by geopolitical negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The gold price trend will mainly depend on the Fed's policy path and geopolitical developments [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump proposed that the US will cooperate with Russia and Ukraine to provide substantial assistance in the security field. Zelensky is ready for a tri - party meeting and hopes for "all - round" security guarantees. European leaders have different stances on the Russia - Ukraine issue, with Germany calling for a cease - fire first and France suggesting a four - party meeting [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is "uneasy" about the rise in service inflation, seeing it as a sign of the stagflation impact of tariffs on the economy [2] - China's Premier chaired a meeting, emphasizing the need to consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery and complete the annual economic and social development goals, focusing on strengthening the domestic cycle and stimulating consumption potential [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce decided to extend the counter - subsidy investigation of imported dairy products from the EU until February 21, 2026, citing the complexity of the case [2] Price Logic - After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump proposed a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party summit, advocating "talking while fighting" and possible "territorial exchanges". Zelensky agreed to participate and demanded comprehensive security guarantees, while Russia also emphasized the need for reliable guarantees. There are obvious differences among parties on cease - fire, security, and territorial issues [3] - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September is rising, and the CME tool shows that the market expects at least two interest - rate cuts this year, which supports the gold price. Although the US dollar has received some buying support due to strong PPI and retail data recently, rising inflation expectations and falling consumer confidence still limit its upside potential [3] Outlook - Next week, focus on Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting and the progress of geopolitical conflicts. The weekly range of London gold spot is expected to be between $3300 and $3500, and that of London silver spot is expected to be between $36 and $40 [6] Commodity Index - On August 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities: the composite index was 2231.32, down 0.23%; the commodity 20 index was 2475.86, down 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2267.54, down 0.49% [45] Precious Metals Index - On August 18, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day increase of 0.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 22.77% [47]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole central bank meeting is highly anticipated, particularly for comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding future monetary policy direction [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Market speculation suggests that Powell may temper expectations for a rate cut in September during his speech at Jackson Hole [2] - Analysts express doubt about the likelihood of a rate cut in September, despite some belief that President Trump and Powell may have reached a consensus on this issue [2] - Powell's cautious approach to monetary policy indicates that he is unlikely to adopt an aggressive stance on rate cuts in the near future [2] Group 2: Economic Risks - The U.S. economy is facing significant uncertainty, which is identified as the largest risk currently [2] - The potential for prolonged high interest rates under Powell's leadership could increase the risk of economic downturn and uncertainty in the U.S. economy [2] - The timeline for Powell's departure in May next year adds to the complexity of the economic landscape, as it limits immediate changes in leadership [2]

Group 1 - Recent trade agreement between the US and EU on tariffs is expected to weaken the EU's export competitiveness, potentially dragging down economic growth prospects in the region [1] - The outcome of US-EU tariff negotiations raises questions about whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will influence the European Central Bank's decisions [1] - Despite the challenges, the European economy shows resilience, and the weak dollar environment may provide value for European equities [1] Group 2 - There is a cautious market expectation regarding interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England within the year [1] - Investment in growth sectors within the Eurozone remains insufficient, indicating a potential area of concern for future economic performance [1] - A global shift in investment portfolios towards Europe is anticipated to support the euro [1]