来源：环球市场播报 随着市场对美联储下月降息的预期增强，现货白银自2011年9月以来首次突破每盎司40美元。周一现货 白银一度涨1.2%，至每盎司40.2045美元，与黄金等其他贵金属一样，延续近期涨势。今年以来，白银 价格已上涨逾38%。在地缘政治局势紧张和金融环境不确定的背景下，投资者对避险资产的强烈需求推 动金银价格走高，美国总统特朗普对美联储的频频攻击引发了人们对该央行独立性的担忧。 ...

回顾本周的行情，由于投资者权衡美国经济数据与美联储未来走向的不确定性，金价大幅走高逼近历史纪 录。最新数据显示美国通胀依然顽固，由此交易员加大了对美联储9月降息的押注，预期降息25个基点的 概率已升至89%，高于数据公布前的85%。降息通常利好无息资产如黄金。同时，美元指数本月下跌约 2%，也为金价提供支撑。 黄金上涨深度解析！ 1、由于美联储独立性的不确定性继续困扰市场。在周五的一次紧急听证会上，联邦法官表示将考虑是否 发布命令阻止特朗普的解雇决定。黄金正在从这种关于美联储独立性的担忧中受益，仅过去两天，黄金 ETF就流入近15吨。为黄金再添一层避险买盘。 2、投资者信心与前景，作为政治与经济动荡中的首选避险资产，黄金今年迄今已上涨逾30%，并在4月创 下3,500美元/盎司的历史新高。当前避险情绪、美元走弱及央行购金预期，均使市场看涨情绪保持高位。 | 日期 | 品和 | 万向 | 开仓时间 | 开仓点位 | 平仓点位 | 盛与点 | 是否持仓过夜 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8月4日 | 黄金 | ਨੂੰ | 21:49 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous rise in gold prices, driven by factors such as market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and increasing investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6][7]. - As of August 30, spot gold rose by 0.9% to $3446.8 per ounce, with an accumulated increase of 4.8% for the month [2]. - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.2% to $3516.1 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 2.86% and a monthly rise of 5.2% [4]. Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is attributed to market fears regarding the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly after the dismissal of a Fed governor, which has led to heightened investor anxiety and a shift towards gold [7]. - Analysts predict that the bullish trend in gold prices will continue, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $3570 per ounce by year-end and $4000 per ounce by 2026 [7][9]. - Factors such as declining interest rates, persistent inflation, and low economic growth are expected to support gold prices, as they create a favorable environment for gold as a safe-haven asset [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant rise in gold prices, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][8] - Spot gold increased by 0.9% to $3446.8 per ounce, with an overall rise of 4.8% in August [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.2% to $3516.1 per ounce, accumulating a 5.2% increase in August [3] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following political interventions [8] - Major gold stocks in Hong Kong saw significant increases, with China Gold International up 8.64% and Lingbao Gold up 15.46% [3] - Domestic retail gold prices have surpassed 1000 yuan per gram, indicating strong consumer demand [3][5] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the bullish trend in gold prices will continue, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $4000 per ounce by 2026 due to ongoing inflation and potential interest rate cuts [9] - Morgan Stanley and other institutions have raised their gold price targets, reflecting a growing consensus on the bullish outlook for gold [8][9] - The shift towards a multipolar world and diversification of reserves away from the US dollar are expected to further support gold prices [9]

Group 1 - Gold prices have been rising for three consecutive days, with significant increases noted, including a rise above $3,430 per ounce and reaching $3,440 per ounce on the London market [1] - COMEX gold prices have also surpassed $3,500 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.9% [1] - Hong Kong-listed gold stocks have generally risen, with notable increases such as China Gold International up 8.64% and Lingbao Gold up 15.46% as of the market close on the 29th [1] Group 2 - The recent rise in international gold prices is linked to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with further cuts anticipated in the next 3-6 months, influencing market expectations [7] - Political interventions, such as the dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member, have raised doubts about the central bank's independence, further driving investors towards gold [7] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the bullish trend in gold prices will continue, driven by factors such as declining interest rates, high inflation, and low economic growth [9] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that central bank gold purchases will reach approximately 850 tons by 2025, with gold prices potentially hitting $4,000 per ounce sooner than expected [9] - Bank of America analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, projecting a price of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 due to inflation and potential interest rate cuts [9]

Group 1 - The Thai Government Pension Fund (GPF), managing assets worth 450 billion USD, is shifting its focus towards gold, commodities, and global equities to enhance returns after a lackluster performance in the first half of the year [1][2] - The fund's return rate for January to June was only 1.19%, but it aims to achieve an annualized return rate of over 3% by 2025 [1] - GPF has significantly increased its gold holdings, which now account for 0.43% of total assets, reflecting a more than doubling in quantity since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The fund has reduced its investment in local and overseas equities from 22.6% to 19% of its total portfolio due to market volatility caused by U.S. tariffs [3] - Approximately 57% of the fund's assets remain in domestic and international fixed income, unchanged from the end of 2024 [3] - The fund's projected return rate for 2024 is 3.5%, more than double the previous year's return of 1.46% [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices have risen for the fourth consecutive week, approaching historical highs, with current prices around $3,415 per ounce [1][4] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming inflation data, which may significantly impact the U.S. monetary easing policy for the year [1] - Recent U.S. economic growth data exceeded expectations, raising concerns about inflation and potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, which is typically unfavorable for gold [1] Group 2 - Fed Governor Waller, a strong contender to succeed Powell, indicated support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with further cuts expected in the next three to six months [4] - The swap market anticipates an 85% probability of a rate cut next month, but uncertainty remains regarding inflation and the U.S. labor market due to the ongoing effects of Trump's tariff policies [4] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased, contributing to the rise in gold prices, especially following Trump's attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook [4] Group 3 - Gold prices have increased by 1.3% this week, nearing the historical high of approximately $3,500 per ounce from April [4] - Factors supporting gold as a safe-haven asset include trade and geopolitical tensions, inflows into exchange-traded funds, and central banks reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar [4] - As of the latest report, spot gold prices are at $3,415.73 per ounce, up 0.6% from the previous day, while silver prices remain stable and platinum and palladium prices have slightly decreased [4]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks surged, with China Gold International, Zhaojin Mining, and Chifeng Jilong Gold rising over 5%, while Lingbao Gold and Tongguan Gold increased over 4%, and China Silver Group and Zijin Mining rose over 3% [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which analysts believe could lead to Trump gaining control over four seats at the Fed, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [3] - The dismissal is expected to increase rate cut expectations, driving investors towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen, as well as cryptocurrencies [3] - Selena Ling from OCBC Bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the Fed's September meeting, with a total potential reduction of up to 75 basis points for the year, predicting five rate cuts over the next two years [3] - Ling projects gold prices to reach $3,570 per ounce by the end of the year and $3,850 by mid-next year, driven by ongoing demand from central banks, institutions, and retail investors, alongside geopolitical and political factors [3]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have risen slightly, surpassing the $3400 mark, benefiting from the escalating conflict between the Federal Reserve and Trump, which may undermine the credibility of the dollar and the Fed, making gold a safe haven for investors [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump to block his dismissal attempt, which could escalate to the Supreme Court, seeking a ruling that Trump's dismissal order is illegal and invalid [2] - If the Federal Reserve loses its independence, it may damage its credibility in combating inflation, leading to increased risks for the dollar and bonds, while pushing inflation higher, thus making gold the preferred safe-haven asset [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices have seen a slight rebound, but overall performance remains weak due to various fundamental disruptions, including decreased geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production increases, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] - OPEC+ has consistently increased production in Q3, but the actual increase has been below planned targets, which may reduce supply pressure; however, global oil production continues to rise, likely increasing supply pressure in Q4 [4] - The traditional peak travel season is nearing its end, leading to a decline in demand for oil products, which may result in a significant increase in global oil inventories [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have formed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating potential for continued fluctuations; short-term trends may reverse as prices enter a previous high transaction area [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating that a mid-term adjustment has begun, with significant pressure from long-term moving averages suggesting potential for new lows [7]

Core Insights - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations with spot gold prices nearing significant dollar levels, while the domestic gold jewelry market remains resilient with prices holding firm, indicating a divergence in market dynamics [1][4] - The gold recycling market is witnessing rising prices, with pure gold recycling prices reaching around a certain amount per gram, reflecting the true value of gold [1][3] - Brand gold stores are pricing their gold jewelry significantly higher than the wholesale market, with notable brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook commanding high prices due to design and brand premiums [3][4] Gold Recycling Market - The gold recycling prices are currently around a certain amount per gram, with the pricing principle based on purity [1][3] - In the wholesale market, prices for pure gold are lower, attracting consumers seeking better value [1][3] Brand Gold Stores - Major brands such as Chow Sang Sang, Lao Feng Xiang, and Chow Tai Fook have gold prices reaching high amounts per gram, reflecting the added value of design and craftsmanship [3][4] - The price difference between gold jewelry and investment gold bars is significant, with gold bars being closer to the material value of gold [3][4] Investment Channels - Banks offer "paper gold" services with prices fluctuating between certain amounts per gram, providing a convenient investment option [4] - Gold ETFs and collectible items like Panda gold coins are also popular investment choices, with prices for these products varying significantly [4] Market Analysis - Short-term forecasts suggest that gold prices may test key resistance levels, with critical support levels identified [6] - The weakening dollar index is contributing to the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties [6] - Current gold recycling prices can reach 70-75% of the original purchase price, indicating a higher retention of value compared to typical luxury goods [6]