盾博dbg发现美国总统特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔之间持续升级的政治紧张关系，正像一颗不断膨胀的 定时炸弹，逐渐侵蚀着投资者的信心。分析师们纷纷发出警告，一旦美联储的独立性受到任何形式的打 击，都可能引发金价的飙升。 特朗普向来不掩饰自己对鲍威尔的不满，根源在于鲍威尔坚持维持美联储当前的中性货币政策立场。就 在不久前，特朗普明确表示，美联储应当迅速降息 300 个基点，这一举措会让联邦基金利率落入 1.25% 至 1.50% 的区间。在他看来，这样的利率调整能够更好地刺激经济发展，而鲍威尔的坚守在他眼中成 了阻碍。 过去几个月里，特朗普对鲍威尔的攻击早已超出了政策分歧的范畴，上升到了人身攻击的层面。他毫不 留情地将 "笨蛋""白痴""蠢货" 这些极具侮辱性的词汇抛向鲍威尔，还给他起了个带有嘲讽意味的绰号 ——"太迟先生"。而近几天，这种言辞上的攻击更是变本加厉，火药味十足，让双方的矛盾愈发公开化 和激烈化。 更值得关注的是，此前房利美和房地美董事会主席比尔・普尔特（William Pulte）还参与散布了关于鲍 威尔正考虑辞职的虚假谣言。他在一份官方声明中称："有报道称鲍威尔正考虑辞职，我对此感到鼓 舞。我认为这 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve is entering a quiet period, with current board member Waller reaffirming support for a 25 basis point rate cut in July, and recent data showing improved consumer inflation expectations [2] - Trade tensions between the US and EU continue, with Trump advocating for a minimum tariff of around 20% on all EU goods, planning to announce tariffs on specific industries by August 1 [2] - Analyst Mai Dong believes that factors supporting gold prices are gradually accumulating, with the market expecting the July rate decision to remain unchanged, but uncertainties remain regarding Powell's ability to maintain Fed independence under pressure [2] - On the technical side, the market formed a short-term upward trend after breaking a short-term descending channel, with a key resistance level at $3335 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - On July 19, the UK announced sanctions against Russian intelligence agencies, lowering the price cap on Russian oil exports from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, which is expected to severely impact Russia's oil industry and funding sources [4] - This action may provoke dissatisfaction among other oil-producing countries, potentially leading to increased production to compete for market share, which could negatively affect oil prices [5] - Saudi Arabia recently modified its oil production reporting standards, with the latest OPEC report indicating a market supply of 9.36 million barrels per day, while actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day [4] - The oil market opened down approximately $1.2 in response to these developments, with a focus on the support level at $65.10 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and US Dollar - The Nasdaq index closed with a small decline, maintaining a high price level, with attention on whether it can reach new highs this week [6] - The US dollar index also closed with a small gain, trading within a range of 97.80 to 98.92, with a focus on the support level at 98.10 [7]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 779.52 CNY per gram, with a short-term bullish trend indicated by a 0.54% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 780.24 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 778.08 CNY per gram [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 783 CNY per gram and 813 CNY per gram, with important support levels between 770 CNY per gram and 810 CNY per gram [2] Group 2 - A recent Goldman Sachs study indicates that leadership changes in global central banks often lead to inflation rates rising by an additional 1-2 percentage points within two years, without benefiting economic growth [2] - The case of Turkey in 2021 illustrates this, where a change in central bank leadership led to a significant increase in inflation from 15% to 85% [2] - Market inflation expectations are rising, with the three to four-year expected inflation rate based on inflation-protected securities increasing from 2.15% at the end of June to 2.36% [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the current U.S. political and financial landscape is the ongoing pressure from the Trump administration on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its implications for monetary policy [1] - Major Wall Street banks have collectively voiced their support for the independence of the Federal Reserve, with CEOs from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup emphasizing its critical importance for market stability and credibility [3] - The collective statement from these financial leaders, who manage over $12 trillion in assets, reflects a heightened awareness of the systemic risks posed by potential political interference in the Federal Reserve's operations [3] Group 2 - Financial markets are beginning to price in risks associated with potential changes in Federal Reserve personnel, with JPMorgan predicting market reactions to various data points that could affect monetary policy stability [4] - The bond market is particularly vulnerable, with analysts warning that a resurgence of inflation could lead to rising bond yields, which may impact stock market expectations for interest rate cuts [4] - Investors are exhibiting "Trump policy fatigue," having adapted to the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's policies, which has led to a unique "Trump response mechanism" in the market [4] Group 3 - The potential replacement of Powell could lead to decreased market confidence, increased expectations for interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and rising term premiums, indicating a need for vigilance in the coming months [5] - Market participants are uncertain whether Trump's actions are a genuine threat or merely a test of market reactions, contributing to ongoing unease [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential impact of rumors regarding Trump's possible dismissal of Powell, which has led to significant market volatility across stocks, bonds, and currencies [2][11] - The defense and military industry is expected to see a performance turning point, with 48 key companies projected to report a total of approximately 6.768 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 11.2% [10][12] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3534 points, with a daily increase of 0.5% and a monthly increase of 0.69% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2154 points, with a daily increase of 0.36% and a monthly increase of 1.74% [1] - The large-cap index showed a 6-month performance increase of 6.72%, while the small-cap index increased by 11.95% over the same period [1] Industry Performance - The small metals sector experienced a significant increase of 25.75% over the past 6 months, while energy metals rose by 14.3% [1] - Conversely, the animal health sector saw a decline of 33.8% over the past 6 months, indicating a stark contrast in performance across different industries [1] Defense and Military Industry Insights - The military industry is entering a growth cycle driven by domestic demand, particularly due to ongoing military modernization efforts [15][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of military trade, which is expected to resonate strongly with domestic supply and demand dynamics, creating a new landscape for military exports [15][24] - Key companies in the defense sector are recommended for investment, including those involved in next-generation equipment and precision-guided munitions [26]

过去几年，美国接连遭遇一系列通胀冲击：疫情打乱供应链、大规模财政刺激、俄乌冲突、移民政策收 紧、关税壁垒以及国债规模预估飙升。然而投资者始终预期通胀将在数年内回归2%水平。这种信心的 根源在于：人们本能地相信无论遭遇何种冲击，美联储都能像汽车刹车系统那样确保通胀受控。 另一位竞争者、特朗普的顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）也表示："白宫所有人都明白美联储独立性 的极端重要性。" 但美联储能否保持独立并不取决于下任主席。如果特朗普能解雇鲍威尔，同样可以解雇其继任者。 5月最高法院曾示意总统无权无故撤换包括主席在内的美联储理事。特朗普上周三虽表示不太可能解雇 鲍威尔，但留下"若涉欺诈则需离职"的话柄。其团队正试图以美联储总部装修超标为由构建解职依据。 特朗普对工程成本的关切颇具选择性。以美墨边境墙为例：2016年竞选时他宣称造价80-120亿美元且由 墨西哥支付。国土安全部数据显示，特朗普首个任期实际耗资170亿美元纳税人资金，工程未完工且墨 西哥未出一分钱。近期国会共和党人又追加465亿美元拨款。 如果特朗普成功迫使美联储主席鲍威尔去职，这一根本假设将彻底崩塌。美联储将不再是对政府的制衡 力量，而 ...

华盛顿权力角力：特朗普、鲍威尔与美联储独立性之争 一场关于美联储主席鲍威尔去留的激烈博弈正在华盛顿上演，其影响远超美国国内，波及全球金融市场。这场较量的关键人物并非仅限于总统特朗普和 美联储主席鲍威尔，财政部长贝森特也扮演着举足轻重的角色。据《华尔街日报》报道，贝森特近期私下会晤特朗普，力劝其勿轻举妄动，避免解雇鲍 威尔。 这场博弈的焦点在于美联储的独立性与政府经济政策之间的冲突。特朗普直言不讳地要求美联储大幅降息，甚至公开呼吁降息3个百分点，以期每年为美 国节省1万亿美元。在他看来，鲍威尔若不配合，便应被撤换。 他认为美联储理应服从政府的经济政策导向，这在支持者中也并非孤例。 然而，鲍威尔作为美联储主席，坚守着货币政策的独立性和专业性。尽管未公开回应特朗普的批评，美联储的立场始终明确：货币政策应基于经济数据 和专业判断，而非政治考量。 贝森特的立场最为微妙。作为特朗普任命的财政部长，他必须权衡总统的政治意图与金融市场的稳定性。他主动介入劝说特朗普，显露出他对市场剧烈 波动和潜在金融危机的担忧远甚于总统的政治诉求。 这场政治层面的争议，却让华尔街的金融机构如坐针毡。他们深知美联储独立性对金融市场稳定的至关重要 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇、李欣越、赵宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国6月核心CPI弱于预期，美国或将提高对欧关税 发达市场多数上涨，美元指数延续反弹。 当周，标普500上涨0.6%，恒生指数上涨2.8%；10Y美债收益率 上行1.0bp至4.4%；美元指数上涨0.6%至98.46，离岸人民币贬值至7.1810；WTI原油下跌1.6%至67.3美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金下跌0.3%至3349.4美元/盎司。 美国或将提高对欧盟关税。 7月12日，特朗普宣布，若贸易谈判无法在8月1日前达成协议，将对欧盟、 墨西哥的进口关税提高至30%。7月15日，USTR正式宣布对巴西发起301调查，同日，美国宣布与印尼达 成贸易协定，印尼出口至美国商品统一适用19%关税。 美国6月核心CPI弱于预期，但6月零售表现较强。 6月美国核心CPI环比0.2%，弱于市场预期的0.3%，但 是商品端已显现出更强的关税传导效应，未来通胀趋势更重要。美国6月零售环比0.6%，较5月大幅回 升，从结构来看，环比改善最明显的是机动车、建材。 风险提示 风险提示：地缘政治冲突升级；美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Trump's rumored intention to "fire" Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, and the resulting market reactions, including a significant sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Group 1: Rumors of Firing Powell - The rumors of Trump potentially "firing" Powell have led to market volatility, with a notable "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies observed on July 16-17 [2][5]. - Trump's motivation for wanting to dismiss Powell includes a desire for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal pressure from rising interest payments, which accounted for 16.9% of federal spending by June 2025 [22][33]. - Legal challenges exist regarding Trump's ability to fire Powell, as he would need to prove "misconduct," and Powell could seek legal recourse to maintain his position [38][41]. Group 2: Powell's Potential Resignation - Historically, two Federal Reserve Chairmen have resigned under political pressure, but Powell has expressed a strong commitment to completing his term, stating he cannot envision any situation, aside from death, that would prevent him from doing so [3][45]. - Powell's determination to remain in office contrasts with past instances where political pressure led to resignations, indicating a robust stance against potential dismissal [45]. Group 3: Next Chairman Nomination Process - If Trump successfully dismisses Powell, the nomination process for a new chairman could accelerate, with potential candidates including Waller, Hassett, and Basant, each with distinct qualifications and political alignments [48][59]. - The nomination process involves presidential nomination, Senate hearings, and confirmation, which can vary in duration; past instances show that some nominations have been completed in as little as six days [55]. Group 4: Economic and Market Implications - If the Federal Reserve loses its independence, the economic outlook may only improve in the short term, with long-term inflation expectations and actual interest rates rising, which could hinder economic growth [4]. - The market's reaction to the rumors of Powell's dismissal included a steepening of the yield curve, with significant declines in stock prices and the dollar, while gold prices increased [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese political landscape is facing significant turmoil, particularly with the upcoming Senate elections, which could lead to a loss of majority for the ruling coalition, impacting market stability and government policies [2][5][9]. Group 1: Japanese Political Situation - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is projected to secure fewer than 50 seats in the Senate elections, potentially losing its majority [2][6][7]. - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government may resign if the coalition fails to maintain a majority, which could lead to a political deadlock and hinder legislative progress [9][11]. - The current approval rating for Ishiba's cabinet has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical threshold of 30%, indicating a precarious political situation [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the elections has led to a significant sell-off in the Japanese bond market, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching record levels [7][8]. - Analysts predict that if Ishiba resigns, the Japanese yen could breach the 149.7 mark against the dollar, reflecting market concerns [8]. - A potential victory for opposition parties could lead to significant policy changes, including tax reductions, which may further destabilize the financial markets [11][12]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to address the market regarding the Fed's independence, which could influence the dollar's performance [3][15]. - Recent U.S. inflation data indicates a rise in core prices, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [17]. - The European Central Bank is also anticipated to maintain its current interest rates amidst ongoing trade tensions, which could affect the euro [19][20]. Group 4: Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings season will see over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting, with Google and Tesla being key focus points [21]. - Google's second-quarter revenue is expected to be $93.9 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by its dominance in digital advertising [22]. - Tesla's anticipated revenue of $22.83 billion represents a 10.46% decline year-over-year, with significant attention on its future guidance and developments in autonomous driving [23].