Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, a small shift of U.S. Treasury holdings into gold could drive gold prices to nearly $5,000 per ounce. The baseline forecast predicts gold will reach $4,000 by mid-2026, with tail risk scenarios suggesting $4,500, and extreme cases approaching $5,000 [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs outlines three scenarios for gold prices: a baseline of $4,000 by mid-2026, a tail risk scenario of $4,500, and an extreme case where just 1% of private U.S. Treasury holdings flow into gold, potentially pushing prices near $5,000 [6][7][9]. - The report highlights that gold has become one of the strongest performing major commodities this year, with a price increase of over 30% and reaching historical highs recently [3][6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The report attributes the rise in gold prices to several factors, including central bank purchases, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased control exerted by former President Trump over the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, particularly in light of Trump's attempts to exert influence, which could lead to inflationary pressures and a decline in the attractiveness of traditional financial assets [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish recommendation for gold as a commodity, emphasizing its role as a value storage tool that does not rely on institutional trust, especially in times of uncertainty regarding central bank independence [6][7].

Group 1 - The conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook marks a significant political event, as it is unprecedented for a sitting president to attempt to dismiss a Federal Reserve official [1][3] - The legal basis for Trump's action hinges on allegations of "mortgage fraud," which raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the legitimacy of political interference in its operations [3][6] - The market is reacting to these political tensions, with a notable inversion in the yield curve indicating concerns over short-term interest rate cuts versus long-term inflation risks [4][9] Group 2 - The independence of central banks is crucial for macroeconomic stability, and any perceived erosion of this independence could have severe implications for both the U.S. and global economies [6] - The legal proceedings initiated by Cook could set a precedent regarding what constitutes "just cause" for dismissing Federal Reserve officials, potentially impacting future political interactions with the central bank [6][7] - Trump's dual strategy of applying pressure both domestically on the Federal Reserve and internationally on the EU reflects a broader approach to economic management, aiming for favorable outcomes in trade and monetary policy [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, the rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid political pressures [1][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On September 4, U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high of 6502.08 points, marking the 21st time this year it has closed at a new high [1]. - The Dow Jones index increased by 0.77% to 45621.29 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.98% to 21707.69 points, both near record levels [2]. - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Amazon up over 4% and Netflix rising more than 2%. Google reached a new high, while chip stocks like Micron Technology rose over 4% [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Recent data has strengthened the view of a cooling labor market, leading to increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with market pricing indicating a 90% probability of a cut in September [3]. - The ADP report showed only a 54,000 increase in private employment for August, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a potential rise in the unemployment rate [3]. - Analysts suggest that if the trend of weak job growth continues, it could lead to negative employment growth, prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Independence - The article highlights a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed amid political interference [4][5]. - There are warnings from financial analysts that government intervention in the Fed could lead to higher inflation and increased market volatility [5][6]. - The potential appointment of close Trump advisors to the Fed has led to heightened concerns among investors regarding the Fed's independence and the implications for inflation expectations [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Milan emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence and opposes political interference in its operations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Milan stresses that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a key foundation for economic stability and will resist any proposals to transfer control to the President [1] - She expresses concern over the politicization of the Federal Reserve's functions, particularly regarding the inclusion of climate issues in monetary policy [1] Group 2: Appointment Arrangements - Milan proposes to take an unpaid leave from the President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) during her tenure at the Federal Reserve to avoid conflicts of interest [1] - She has not yet discussed long-term appointment matters with the White House and commits to resigning from the CEA if her nomination is extended [1] Group 3: Economic Analysis - Milan provides a layered judgment on tariffs, stating that the burden will ultimately fall on exporting countries and that tariffs have not led to measurable price increases or inflation [1] - She interprets current inflation trends as being influenced by multiple policies, noting that several initiatives from the Trump administration have significant deflationary properties [1] Group 4: Economic Data and Policy - Milan criticizes the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for showing complacency in the face of declining data quality and highlights the deterioration of key economic indicators [1] - She introduces the concept that any policy can be viewed as a form of "implicit taxation," affecting the economy similarly to tax policies [1] Group 5: Interest Rate Decisions - Milan states that she will not commit to supporting future interest rate cuts and will make decisions based on objective economic analysis and long-term management goals [1]

该事件还会进一步发酵（短期关注库克能否出席9月会议）。 上周库克和特朗普团队对薄公堂，是库克起诉特朗普非法解雇，要求法官下达紧急禁令，以保住美联储理事一职。法官要判断的是：特朗普有没有"正当 理由"开除？在法律上，这更像是一场 "解雇是否合法" 的官司。目前法官尚未做出裁决。 来源：华尔街情报圈 《华尔街日报》引述知情人士消息称，美国司法部已对美联储理事库克展开刑事调查，并发出传票，以调查她是否在抵押贷款申请中提交了虚假信息。 金融市场并没有立即反馈，但并不等于"忽视"。这类"政治-司法-金融"交叉事件，市场往往要等"可操作的节点"（比如法院禁令、9月会议）才会剧烈反 应。现在的状态是"先观望"。 报告亮点： 1、中国股市进入直面现实的"反思期"，报告开篇即《中国沉思录》，直击人们最想知道的答案： - A股如果回调，本轮下跌会跌多少？人民币会追随A股走势吗？ 而今天司法部启动的调查是刑事性质，由大陪审团配合，涉及是否伪造房贷信息，如果属实，那就是犯罪。这条线库克面对的是检察官，最后可能走到刑 事起诉。即使民事法官判库克不能被马上解雇，刑事调查如果查实，那她还是可能因为刑事罪名而失去美联储理事席位。 简单说两条 ...

【导读】美联储又有重磅消息 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 美股微涨 9月4日晚间，美股三大指数震荡微涨，涨幅均在0.4%左右。 华尔街交易员正为周五的就业报告做准备，而周四公布的一系列数据进一步强化了劳动力市场降温的观点，使得市场对美联储降息的押注持续升温，并推 动美国国债收益率下行。 ADP私人就业报告显示，8月就业人数增加5.4万人。经济学家此前预计私人企业将新增7.5万个岗位，这一数字也低于7月修正后的10.6万个。8月，美国雇 主对招聘意愿明显不足，失业率可能升至近四年来的新高。连续四个月就业增幅低于10万人，这将是自2020年疫情爆发以来最疲弱的阶段。 在听证会上强调独立性的重要性 9月4日晚间，特朗普提名的一位美联储理事候选人在听证会上重申了自己对央行独立性的承诺，并反驳了民主党人关于他将只是充当特朗普"代言人"的担 忧。 市场反应有限，因为投资者认为最新的ADP数据疲软到足以让美联储在9月降息，但又没有疲软到足以预示经济衰退。根据芝商所CME Group的FedWatch 工具，交易员加大了对美联储将在9月17日降息的押注。 FHN Financial的Will C ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Federal Reserve Board member Milan suggests that perceived lack of independence of the Federal Reserve could impact bond yields [1] Group 1 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining stable bond yields [1] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to increased volatility in the bond market [1]

Group 1 - Ray Dalio predicts that the U.S. may face a debt crisis in about three years due to excessive spending over the years [3][4] - Current U.S. government debt servicing costs are approximately $1 trillion annually, with total debt rollover needs around $9 trillion, leading to significant budget deficits [3][4] - The federal government is expected to spend about $7 trillion next year while generating only $5 trillion in revenue, necessitating the issuance of $2 trillion in new debt [3][4] Group 2 - Dalio warns that if policymakers do not change their approach, both debt repayment issues and supply-demand problems for debt will arise simultaneously [4] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are heightened following President Trump's actions to dismiss a Fed governor and threaten the Fed chair [4][5] - If the Fed is politically weakened, it could lead to a decline in the value of U.S. debt and the dollar, undermining their effectiveness as stores of wealth [4][5] Group 3 - International investors are reducing their holdings of U.S. debt due to geopolitical concerns and are turning to gold as an alternative [6] - The rise in gold and cryptocurrency prices is attributed to the deteriorating debt situation of the U.S. and other reserve currency governments [6][7] - Increased supply of dollars and/or decreased demand may make cryptocurrencies more attractive as alternative currencies [7] Group 4 - Dalio characterizes the U.S. government's intervention in the chip industry as an early sign of state capitalism, reflecting broader economic cycles [7] - The widening gap between wealth and values is contributing to the rise of populism, which poses challenges to democratic processes [7] - The outcome of the technology and economic competition among nations is seen as critical to geopolitical and potentially military dominance [7]

Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - Ray Dalio predicts that the U.S. may face a debt crisis in about three years due to excessive spending over the years [4] - The current annual interest payment on U.S. debt is approximately $1 trillion, with total debt rollover requirements around $9 trillion, which pressures other expenditures [7] - The federal government is expected to spend about $7 trillion next year while generating only about $5 trillion in revenue, necessitating the issuance of $2 trillion in new debt [7][8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have been raised following President Trump's actions to dismiss a Fed governor and threaten the Fed Chair [11] - Dalio warns that if the Fed is politically weakened, it could lead to a decline in the value of U.S. debt and the dollar, undermining their effectiveness as stores of wealth [11] - He highlights that international investors are reducing their holdings of U.S. debt and turning to gold due to geopolitical concerns [12] Group 3: Government Intervention in Industries - The U.S. government's recent agreement with Intel to acquire a stake using unspent subsidy funds is seen as a sign of early-stage national capitalism [15] - Dalio notes that widening wealth and value gaps are leading to rising populism and unresolvable divisions between political factions [15] - He emphasizes the geopolitical implications, stating that the country that wins the technology and economic war will also win the more significant geopolitical and possibly military conflicts [15]

被美国总统特朗普提名为美联储理事的Stephen Miran对国会议员强调，美联储的独立性至关重要，并否 认他得到提名有支持降息的附加条件。 美东时间9月4日周四，在美国参议院银行委员会有关确认其理事提名的听证会上，Miran表示，没有人 要求他承诺会投票支持降息。 在为本次听证会事先准备的发言稿中，Miran试图缓解外界对他试图破坏联储决策长期以来不受白宫影 响这一独立性的担忧。讲稿写道： 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 "在我看来，联储最重要的职责是防止经济萧条和恶性通胀。货币政策的独立性是其成功的 关键因素。" 风险提示及免责条款 ...