Group 1 - The central bank's net liquidity injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan, significantly larger than previous scales [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 900 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan after accounting for 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing [1] - The increase in liquidity is aimed at stabilizing the financial environment ahead of the Spring Festival and supporting major project funding needs [1] Group 2 - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng indicated that there is still room for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates to maintain ample liquidity [2] - Analysts suggest that the net injection of 700 billion yuan corresponds to a reduction in reserve requirements between 0.25% and 0.5%, reducing the likelihood of a reserve cut before the Spring Festival [2] - Long-term, the flexible and efficient monetary policy framework suggests a clear potential for interest rate and reserve requirement cuts, especially in conjunction with increased government bond issuance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1] Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations, indicating room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates this year [1] - The PBOC will enhance the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to keep the comprehensive financing costs low [1] Structural Policy Focus - The PBOC will optimize the design and management of structural monetary policy tools, guiding financial institutions to increase support for major strategies, key areas, and weak links [1] - Recent monetary policies have been released to optimize the elements of structural monetary policy tools [1] Financial Market Stability - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining stable financial markets, managing expectations, and ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable level [2] - There will be a focus on strengthening supervision across various markets, including bonds, foreign exchange, and gold [2] Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC plans to optimize the monetary policy target system, reducing emphasis on quantitative targets and allowing for more effective interest rate adjustments [3] - A market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism will be established to improve the flow from central bank policy rates to market rates [3] Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC will enhance monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, recognizing the strong correlation between economic operations and financial risks [4] - The scope of macro-prudential management will be expanded to include financial markets, non-bank financial institutions, and internet finance [4] Tool Development and Legal Framework - The PBOC will enrich and standardize macro-prudential management tools, ensuring a comprehensive management process [5] - Legislative efforts will be made to strengthen the legal framework for macro-prudential policies and enhance coordination with monetary and micro-prudential regulations [5]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan will implement monetary policy in a timely manner to sustainably and stably achieve the 2% inflation target [1] - Risks to the outlook include the impact of trade policies on overseas economies, domestic corporate wage and pricing behavior, and developments in financial and foreign exchange markets [1] - The overall stability of the Japanese financial system is maintained [1] Group 2 - There remains uncertainty in the global economic outlook, particularly due to trade policies that may lead to rising import prices on the supply side [1] - Medium to long-term inflation expectations are likely to continue rising moderately [1] - The output gap is expected to improve along trend and expand moderately [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US economic data is strong, and the three major US stock indexes have collectively closed higher. Domestically, the monetary policy will continue the moderately loose tone, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The personal consumer loan discount policy has officially landed, and attention should be paid to its supporting effect on consumption recovery. Currently, the policy regulation cooling trend continues, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has further declined. Attention can be focused on the entry opportunities of IC [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - Domestically, the central bank governor said that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The six major state - owned banks have implemented the personal consumer loan fiscal discount policy. After discount, the actual interest rate of consumer loans for some high - quality customers can enter the "2%" range. Overseas, the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 had an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the 11 - month core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [1]. Spot Market - A - share three major indexes fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.14% to 4122.58 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. In terms of industries, the building materials, national defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, and communication industries led the gains, while the beauty care, banking, and pharmaceutical and biological industries led the losses. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.7 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.91% to 23436.02 points [2]. Futures Market - In terms of basis, the current - month contracts of IH, IC, and IM were at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the open interest of IF and IH increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy - Focus on the entry opportunities of IC due to the further decline of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index under the continuous policy regulation cooling trend [3]. Chart Summary Macroeconomic Charts - Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][6]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 22 and 21, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][6][13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Tables show the trading volume, open interest, basis (futures - spot), and inter - delivery spread of IF, IH, IC, and IM. There are also corresponding charts for each indicator [5][6][15].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 900 billion MLF operation on January 23, which indicates a significant increase in medium-term liquidity support to stabilize the financial market [1] Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC will roll over 700 billion MLF this month, netting a total liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan, which is a notable increase compared to previous months [1] - With 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net increase in MLF operations reflects a proactive approach to manage liquidity [1] Group 2: Market Stability - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions are aimed at countering potential liquidity tightening and ensuring a stable and ample funding environment [1] - The increased liquidity is expected to support government bond issuance and encourage financial institutions to enhance credit lending [1] Group 3: Policy Implications - The current measures may serve as a substitute for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, especially with the upcoming Spring Festival leading to a seasonal increase in cash withdrawals [1] - The PBOC's recent structural support policies indicate a continued supportive stance in monetary policy [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, after the absolute price correction, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. However, the upward price trend has difficulty in being transmitted downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output continuing to decline month - on - month, and may enter the Spring Festival holiday early. Although the long - term macro factors still drive the price up, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. - For alumina, the gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is still falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, the oversupply situation persists, and the social inventory is increasing with a possible risk of over - stocking [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,740 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,770 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,100 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,055 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,160 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 355,802 lots, and the open interest was 337,960 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 743,000 tons, a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 138,856 tons, a change of 101 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 509,275 tons, a change of 2,100 tons from the previous day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 22, 2026, the Shanxi alumina price was 2,615 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,560 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,645 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,700 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,750 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 304 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,717 yuan/ton, a change of 48 yuan/ton (1.80% change) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,728 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,666 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 564,157 lots, and the open interest was 489,138 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 22, 2026, the Baotai civil raw aluminum procurement price was 17,700 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price was 18,100 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 23,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 426 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - After the absolute price decline, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly increased, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. But the price increase is difficult to be passed on downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output declining. The early - stage inventory accumulation has put pressure on the price. Although the long - term macro factors support the price increase, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. Alumina - The gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak due to factors such as low import ore trading volume, falling prices, and increased bauxite arrivals in China. The supply pressure remains, and there is a risk of over - stocking [6][7].

日本央行维持政策利率在0.75%不变，符合预期。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Economic Growth and Performance - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the annualized quarterly real GDP growth for Q3 2025 upward by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth since Q3 2023 and an acceleration from 3.8% in Q2 [1] - The upward revision was primarily driven by better-than-expected performance in exports and business investment, with both contributing an additional 0.2 percentage points to economic growth [3] - Business fixed investment grew by 3.2%, with investments in AI infrastructure reaching historical highs, alongside a recovery in manufacturing, which boosted non-residential investment growth [3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The core PCE price index remained at 2.9%, consistent with initial estimates, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that complicate policy decisions [4] - Personal consumption expenditures, which account for over two-thirds of the economy, grew by 3.5%, serving as a stabilizing force for economic growth [3] Structural Disparities in Economic Recovery - The economic recovery is characterized by a "K-shaped" pattern, where high-income households benefit from stock market gains and high property values, while lower-income groups face greater cost-of-living pressures [3] - Large corporations are managing to improve profit levels despite rising costs from tariffs, while small businesses are experiencing ongoing operational pressures due to profit squeezes and reduced low-cost labor supply [3] Market Outlook and Diverging Perspectives - Optimists believe that the synergy of consumption, external demand, and investment indicates strong internal economic momentum, leading to revised upward forecasts for annual economic growth [4] - Cautious analysts highlight structural issues and policy uncertainties, suggesting that the "K-shaped" recovery may exacerbate income inequality and limit sustainable consumption [4] Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The Federal Reserve must balance economic resilience with inflation targets, as core PCE trends will directly influence interest rate decisions [5] - Economic factors such as consumer spending resilience, business investment expansion, and the alleviation of the "K-shaped" recovery will reshape growth trajectories [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures may face pressure, stock index futures' volatility center may gradually rise, and precious metals' market volatility may increase. Different commodity futures have different trends and investment suggestions based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Open Market Operation**: On January 22, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 30.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy Expectation**: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures may face certain pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 0.19%, - 0.51%, 0.53%, and 0.91% respectively [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and corporate profit growth is at a low level, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,087.58 with a decrease of 0.43%, and the silver main contract closed at 23,339 with an increase of 0.90% [10]. - **Analysis**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [12]. - **Analysis**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It is expected that the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [14]. - **Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has decreased month - on - month, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened. Technically, it shows signs of stabilizing after a decline. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [16]. - **Analysis**: The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. However, the demand for coke has decreased due to the decline in iron - making production. Technically, it may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon rose by 0.48% and 0.94% respectively. The spot prices also changed [19]. - **Analysis**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues. The cost is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened higher and oscillated, closing above the 5 - day moving average [20]. - **Analysis**: Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US is expanding Chevron's oil production license in Venezuela. The market is concerned about the over - supply pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward, closing above the moving average group [23]. - **Analysis**: The import of fuel oil in Asia from the West has increased, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is in good condition. The price has risen due to increased downstream demand after the holidays and expected pre - Spring Festival demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market showed a rising trend, and the Yuyao LLDPE market adjusted prices [26]. - **Analysis**: The开工 rate has declined due to low - temperature and labor shortages, but the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing fields is growing steadily. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but PDH is still in deep losses. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose by 4.50%, and the Shandong mainstream price increased [28]. - **Analysis**: The rise in the synthetic rubber market is supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operation rates, but weak downstream demand limits the increase. It is expected to be mainly in a strong - oscillation pattern [28][29][30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main natural rubber contracts and 20 - grade rubber contracts rose, and the Shanghai spot price increased [31]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, and the demand from downstream tire enterprises has improved. However, the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31][32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose by 2.21%, and the spot price increased [33]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, it is the traditional off - season for PVC, but the market may oscillate strongly under policy expectations. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty of demand [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main urea contract rose by 1.30%, and the Shandong Linyi price increased [35]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, urea prices will maintain a strong - oscillation pattern, driven by export demand and cost support. The daily production is expected to remain high, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is increasing, while the demand from the board industry is decreasing [35][36]. p - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose by 2.13%. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable [37]. - **Analysis**: The PX operating rate has declined, and the cost of crude oil may provide support. In the short term, it may oscillate and adjust. Investors can participate in the range and pay attention to external crude oil fluctuations and macro - policy changes [37][38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.75% [39]. - **Analysis**: The PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has not changed much recently, and the demand has decreased seasonally. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory build - up in January and February. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose by 4.51% [40]. - **Analysis**: The supply has decreased slightly due to increased domestic and foreign device maintenance, but the port inventory is under pressure, and the pre - arrival volume has increased significantly. It is expected to have pressure on the price in January and February. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose by 2.31% [42]. - **Analysis**: The supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and the sales have improved. The terminal factories are mainly consuming raw - material inventories. The low inventory may provide support at the bottom. It is expected to follow the cost - end logic and oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and pre - holiday stocking by downstream enterprises [42]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 3.39%, and the processing fee has recovered [43]. - **Analysis**: The production load of bottle - grade PET has slightly decreased, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still the cost end. It is expected to follow the cost - end oscillation. Investors should participate carefully, control risks, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [43][44]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 soda ash contract closed at 1185 yuan/ton, rising 1.46% [45]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains loose, and the price is stable. The production has decreased slightly, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream demand is average. It shows obvious off - season characteristics. It is recommended to be cautious as the market lacks substantial support in the short term [45][46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 glass contract closed at 1057 yuan/ton, rising 0.67% [47]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of glass remains loose. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory has increased, and the sales of enterprises have slowed down. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48][49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 caustic soda contract closed at 1948 yuan/ton, falling 0.51% [50]. - **Analysis**: Caustic soda shows obvious winter seasonal characteristics, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The market is in a weak state, and the outlook is not optimistic [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 pulp contract closed at 5380 yuan/ton, rising 0.34% [51]. - **Analysis**: The inventory of pulp has continued to accumulate, and the spot trading is light. The prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have declined. The downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 2.55% to 168,780 yuan/ton [52]. - **Analysis**: The macro - liquidity has increased, and the supply of lithium carbonate is still high, while the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased, and the price has support at the bottom. However, the short - term volatility may increase [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 100,270 yuan/ton, falling 0.43% [53]. - **Analysis**: The inflation in the US is still high, the international situation is tense, and the supply of copper is extremely tight. However, the high price has suppressed the actual demand, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is supported in the long term but restricted in the short term. The current risk is relatively high [53][54]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 24,070 yuan/ton, rising 0.21%, and the main alumina contract closed at 2729 yuan/ton, rising 1.15% [55]. - **Analysis**: The supply of bauxite is abundant, the production of alumina is in excess, and the production of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the ceiling. The demand is suppressed in the short term, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to short alumina on rallies before the Spring Festival. The long - term outlook for aluminum prices is still optimistic, but there may be a short - term correction [55][56]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 24,530 yuan/ton, rising 0.74% [58]. - **Analysis**: The supply of zinc raw materials is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, and the consumption will weaken seasonally. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price may decline under pressure [58][59]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai lead contract closed at 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [60]. - **Analysis**: The supply of lead is restricted by the shortage of raw materials, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead provides support, while the off - season demand restricts the upward space. It is expected to oscillate within a range [60][61]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai tin contract rose by 1.7% to 417,250 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production recovery. The demand shows certain resilience supported by emerging fields. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to risk control [62]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose by 0.28% to 142,730 yuan/ton [63]. - **Analysis**: The macro - situation and Indonesian policies have affected the nickel market. The cost of nickel production is expected to rise, but the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The market is in an over - supply situation, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [63]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract rose by 1.50% to 2768 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose by 0.55% to 8084 yuan/ton. The spot prices also changed [64]. - **Analysis**: The import of soybeans has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in loss, and the cost support has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [64][65]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has reached a two - month high. The export of palm oil products in Malaysia has increased, and the production has decreased [66]. - **Analysis**: The production of palm oil may decline, the demand is strong, and the inventory in China is at a medium level. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [66][67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has little change, and the import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in China has changed [69]. - **Analysis**: China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has increased. Investors can consider holding positions to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69][70]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external - market cotton fluctuated [71]. - **Analysis**: The USDA supply - demand report is favorable to the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory build

一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【央行行长潘功胜：继续维护好金融市场平稳运行，支持资本市场稳定发展】1月22日，央行行长潘功胜在接受 采访时表示，2026年，央行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币 政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造 良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五"良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。潘功胜谈到，总量政策方面，灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。央行还将做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成 本低位运行。结构性政策方面，央行已在今年年初先行出台一批货币金融政策，对结构性货币政策工具的政策 要素作了优化完善。 【央行连续11个月加量操作MLF，加码中长期资金投放】央行1月22日发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银 行体系流动性充裕，1月23日，将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元中期借贷便利 （MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴于本月2000亿元MLF到期，央行1月 ...