核心观点： 12 月 10 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率区间下调至 3.5%~3.75%，降息 25bps，并重启短债扩表，整体表态比市场预期更偏鸽。会前，市场对此 次降息的预期已达到 90%以上，但普遍担忧这次降息是本轮最后一次。但 是，美联储会议声明和记者问答比预期更温和，市场对后续降息的信心提 振。会议声明（Statement）的增量信息不多，唯一变化在于对失业率的 描述由"截止 8 月有所上行但保持低位"变为"截至 9 月有所上行"，体 现劳动力市场弱化趋势更为显著。记者会上，鲍威尔也明确提出，自 4 月 以来非农就业平均每月增加 4 万，但其中夸大的成分或有 6 万，相当于每 月负增 2 万人，指向对就业市场下行风险的担忧。与放缓的现状相对的 是，12 月的经济预期摘要（SEP）上调了对于未来的 GDP 预期，并下调 了通胀预期和失业率预期，显示 2026 年美国经济预期边际好转，AI 经济 和财政支出的拉动预期对美国经济形成额外支撑。此外，在经济前景不确 定性较强的情况下，FOMC 委员会内部分歧继续加深，本次投票共三人反 对，其中 Miran 支持降息 50bps，Schmid 和 Goolsb ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Christmas stocking demand is conducive to the recovery of futures prices. Most shipping companies slightly raised their freight rates in mid - and late December, which also supported the futures prices. However, most of them are still waiting and seeing for the January quotes, and the subsequent focus should be on Maersk's price increase announcement. [8][9][38][39] - Although the trade relations are gradually improving, China's exports to the US are still under pressure due to the nearly 40% tax rate, which has a certain negative impact on the pre - Christmas demand. The boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. [9][39] - The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner. [9][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - The futures prices of the Container Freight Index (European Line) fluctuated slightly this week. The main contract EC2602 closed up 3.95%, while the far - month contracts had gains and losses ranging from - 1% to 4%, with relatively small fluctuations. [8][12][38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1509.10, up 25.45 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. [8][12][38] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI data showed a slight recovery, generally in line with the seasonal pattern. The new export order index rebounded to 47.9, indicating that the terminal transportation demand recovered before Christmas. [8][38] - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract increased this week, and the trading sentiment warmed up. [18] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Fed Chairman Powell said that monetary policy has no preset path and will be decided based on data in each meeting. Inflation is still high, but non - tariff - driven core inflation has improved significantly. If there are no new tariffs, commodity inflation is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2026. Interest rates are at the upper end of the neutral range, and the policy is transitioning from restrictive to neutral. US President Trump criticized Powell for the small rate cut. [23] - According to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global trade volume will increase by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record of $35 trillion, driven by East Asia, Africa and South - South trade. [23] - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed a new peace plan draft with leaders of the UK, France and Germany. They reached a consensus on security guarantees for Ukraine, post - war reconstruction and next steps, and also discussed defense support for Ukraine. [23] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will implement a special consumption - boosting action, expand and upgrade commodity consumption, and increase inclusive policies for consumers. It will also expand independent opening - up, promote innovative development of trade and expand two - way investment cooperation. [23] - The EU is considering postponing the plan to ban the sale of new fuel - powered vehicles by five years to 2040, and the new plan may allow the sale of plug - in hybrid and extended - range electric vehicles for up to five years after 2035. [23] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and price difference of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week. [26] - The global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while the shipping capacity on the European line decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI rebounded this week, and the freight rates were slightly raised. [31] - The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged. [34] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The Christmas stocking demand and the slight increase of freight rates by most shipping companies in mid - and late December support the futures prices, but the January quotes are still uncertain, and Maersk's price increase announcement should be closely watched. [9][38][39] - China's exports to the US are still under pressure due to high tax rates, which weakens the pre - Christmas demand and the boosting effect of the peak season. [9][39] - The futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently, and investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to risk control and track relevant data. [9][39]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘佳 北京报道 2026年货币政策权威方向，由中央经济工作会议正式定调。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作，为全 年宏观调控划定核心方向。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进 经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持 流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点 领域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 在多位受访人士看来，此次会议为2026年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，明确传递出宏 观政策将更加积极有力，以推动宏观经济实现"质的有效提升和量的合理增长"。 值得关注的是，关于总量型货币政策工具，会议将去年的"适时降准降息"调整为"灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具"，这一表述变化意味着降准降息仍是明年货币政策操作的可选项，同时强调灵活性 ...

基本内容 中央经济工作会议通稿在总基调和核心内容上与本周初的政治局会议基本一致，但篇幅更长、增量信息更多；同时， 对比去年和今年的会议通稿，我们又可以看到诸多变化。 风险提示 1）经济目标、赤字率、特别国债、专项债等数字安排需要到明年两会期间发布，当前评估尚存在不确定性；2）外部 环境仍然复杂多变，可能给国内经济工作重心和政策节奏带来扰动。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 中央经济工作会议通稿在总基调和核心内容上与本周初的政治局会议基本一致，但篇幅更长、增量信息更多；同时， 对比去年和今年的会议通稿，我们又可以看到诸多变化。 对形势评估更有信心。相比于往年，今年会议对于外部环境使用了"影响加深"这一相对中性的表述，去年会议则描 述为"不利影响加深"。今年对于内部问题指出"大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的"，这一变化 呼应了今年中国在外交、经济、市场等方面的表现，也对应了防风险工作的顺位从去年的第五位降到今年的第八位。 财政政策更有定力。会议对财政政策"更加积极"的定调与去年一致，但细节更显定力。例如，指出"保持必要的" 财政赤字、债务规模和支出总量，去年则直接提出要"提高财政赤 ...

目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 国债期货周报 宽货币预期升温，超长债仍待企稳 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、工信息部办、中国人民银行发布《关于用好绿色金融政策支持绿色工厂建设的通知》。其中提到，拓宽直接融资渠道。支持 符合条件的企业发行绿色债券和转型债券，募集资金加大绿色工厂建设投入，鼓励金融机构做好绿色债券发行承销和投资等配套服务；2、中 央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域；3、 商务部将出台加快零售业创新发展的意见，通过统筹规划、合理布局，提升商品和服务质量，协同优化存量和增量，推动线上线下公平竞争 等，实现新供给、新需求的良性互动。 基本面：1、国内:1）11月份我国制造业PMI为49.2%，比上 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 继往开来——学习中央经济工作会议 摘要 宏观经济 2025年12月12日 | 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3063825 | 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月12日星期五 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 12月11日闭幕的中央经济工作会议对2026年经济工作做出指导 。延续了去年的"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针 对性协同性"，"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策"。相比去年提出的"加强超常规逆周期调节"，今 年表述为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节"，新提出"发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应"。我们理解可能会从超常规过渡到常规，更加重视 跨周期调节，也就是从更长远的视角来制定中短期的政策。 对于财政政策我们关注到"保持必要"四个字，我们预计2026 年财政赤字率可能会保持在4%，新增地方政府债务规模约4万亿元， 超长期国 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 223 billion, 108.7 billion, and 99 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -33.8 billion, 60.5 billion, and -106.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 134.6 billion, with a net financing amount of 71.4 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 220.7 billion, with a net financing amount of 61 billion [1] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 270 million [1] Secondary Market Review - Long-term bonds continue to face pressure, leading to another adjustment in the bond market. Key influencing factors include the central bank's November government bond trading volume, the Vanke incident, and the political bureau meeting [2] Liquidity Tracking - At the beginning of December, the funding environment is seasonally loose. The final R001 and R007 rates decreased by 5.3 basis points and 2.6 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - He Lifeng held a video call with the U.S. Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative to promote stable and positive Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations. High-frequency data shows a mixed performance on the production side, weak demand in real estate exports, and a mixed price trend with most production material prices rebounding [4] Overseas Market - U.S. employment data showed mixed results, while expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan increased, leading to a decline in U.S. long-term bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.14%, up 12 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - Last week, A-shares were positively influenced by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, with prices of silver, copper, and aluminum rising, resulting in a notable performance in the non-ferrous sector with a weekly increase of 5.35%. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.70 trillion, down 40.745 billion from the previous week. As of December 4, 2025, the total financing balance across A-shares was 24,664.78 billion, an increase of 11.493 billion from November 27 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market's oscillating pattern remains unbroken, but short-term pressure on long-term bonds continues. On one hand, the basic economic outlook for 2026 suggests marginal stabilization, but the upward slope is not steep. Before a clear recovery in fundamentals, the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a necessity for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates. The market's short-term expectations for monetary policy are relatively pessimistic [7] - On the other hand, the trend of deposit liquidity has increased the instability of banks' liabilities but has also effectively reduced their costs. After the disturbances from deposit disintermediation dissipate, the cost-effectiveness of banks in bond allocation is expected to rise again. Additionally, the central bank's resumption of government bond trading serves dual purposes of fiscal and monetary coordination and yield curve adjustment, indicating that bond yields still have an upper limit [7] - The traditional bond market configuration in mid to late December is still anticipated. The convertible bond index is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with recent movements in convertible bond funding being a major focus. The long-term logic of convertible bonds remains intact, with no reversal in supply-demand relationships and policy support for economic stability not fully dissipated [7]

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议（下称"会议"）在北京举行，为明年经济工作提供明确指引。会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策， 保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 2025年12月4日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在《人民日报》上发表署名文章中表示，要把握好货币政策的力度、时机和节奏，更加注重做好跨周期 和逆周期调节，保持货币条件与支持经济潜在增长和物价基本稳定的要求相匹配，提升金融支持经济结构调整和高质量发展的适配性和精准性。 本周人民币兑美元中间价累计调升111个基点。截至12月12日9时50分，在岸人民币对美元汇率报7.0561，离岸人民币对美元汇率报7.0524 文| 《财经》研究员 顾欣宇 编辑| 张威 北京时间12月12日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升48个基点，报7.0638。本周人民币兑美元中间价累计调升111个基点。 截至12月12日9时50分，在岸人民币对美元汇率报7.0561，离岸人民币对美元汇率报7.0524，继续向7.05关口逼近。 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期。本轮降息周期内已经累计降 ...

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 会议首次使用了"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"的表述，还首次提出将"存量政策和增量政 策"纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。 在宏观政策相关的诸多新表述背后，多位受访者认为，明年的政策制定可能不会过度关注短期内的刺激 效果，更多着眼于"十五五"整体经济的长远发展规划，既关注新增政策的出台，也重视已有政策的落实 落细，体现对宏观政策协同以及落地效果的重视。 招联首席研究员董希淼也指出，"灵活"表明将根据内外部环境变化和经济发展需要，适时运用货币政策 工具，该出手时就出手；"高效"表明运用降准降息等工具时，要更多考虑政策有效性和针对性，既要加 大力度支持经济增长，也要加强防范资金空转、地方债务等风险。同时，要进一步畅通货币政策传导， 推动金融"活水"以更高效率滴灌实体经济和普通大众。 货币政策空间进一步加大 节奏将呈现小幅、灵活的特点 每年中央经济工作会议对于降息降准等工具运用的表述，都是市场关注的焦点。此次会议明确，明年货 币政策将继续适度宽松，但首次使用了"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"的表述。 在业内看来，此次会议通过"灵活高效"的四字表述，释放出了 ...

3)内需方向：优化结构是核心，推动消费端释放潜力，投资端止跌回稳； 4)科技方向：强调财政优势区域的集群效应，"人工智能+"依旧是科技主线； 5)"内卷式"竞争：并入改革章节意味着"反内卷"和"国企改革"会是2026年的政策重点； 6)化解风险章节：从"防范"转向"积极化解"，打开地产和化债的政策空间。 林荣雄重点指出，重要会议提到"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，结合 央行三季度货政例会提及的"促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"，这是一个极具信号意义的变化。 可以看出，2026年货币政策的锚就是增长和通胀，决策层对于稳增长和推动通胀回升的诉求较为明确。 12月11日，重要会议通稿发布后，多家研究机构参照以往会议，以及"十五五"，进行了解读。 国投证券首席策略分析师林荣雄认为，此次重要会议有六大值得关注的信号： 1)财政政策：从"提赤字、加力度"转向"稳赤字、重落实"； 2)货币政策：把"经济增长"和"物价回升"纳入核心KPI； 中金公司（601995）也指出，"十五五"明确提出"居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用 持续增强"是"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标之一， ...