在当今风云变幻的全球金融舞台上，黄金价格犹如一颗耀眼且极具影响力的明星，正以惊人的态势不断攀升。 当黄金价格一举突破5100美元/盎司这一关键节点时，全球金融格局也随之经历着一场深刻而复杂的变革。这一变革并非孤立的市场现象，而是诸多地缘 政治、经济战略等因素相互交织作用的结果。 从地缘政治层面来看，美国将"林肯"号航母部署至中东地区，这一军事行动使得本就紧张的伊朗核问题进一步升温。中东地区一直以来都是全球地缘政治 的敏感地带，其局势的任何风吹草动都会对全球市场产生重大影响。 航母的部署无疑加剧了地区的地缘冲突，而黄金作为一种传统的避险资产，在这种动荡的局势下，其价格自然会受到推动而飙升。就如同历史上多次发生 的地缘冲突事件一样，例如海湾战争时期，黄金价格就因战争的不确定性而大幅上涨。 此次也不例外，1月26日，伦敦金现货价格如同脱缰的野马，接连突破5000美元和5100美元两大重要关口，创下了历史新高。 这一涨幅之迅猛，远远超出了机构此前的预测。比如，高盛原本预计到2026年底黄金价格才会达到5500美元，然而按照当前这种强劲的涨势，这一目标很 有可能提前至2025年第一季度末就得以实现。 在这场黄金价格的盛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, reaching over $5,000 per ounce, and emphasizes the growing popularity of the Cathay Fund's gold ETF (518800) as a preferred investment vehicle for both institutional and individual investors during this "gold super cycle" [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors Supporting Gold Prices - The surge in gold prices in 2026 is attributed to three interrelated factors: the shift towards "de-dollarization," where multiple central banks are increasing their gold reserves, indicating a fundamental change in gold's pricing power [2] - The decline in nominal interest rates and the ongoing battle with inflation expectations have made gold, a non-yielding asset, more attractive as the opportunity cost of holding it approaches zero [2] - The normalization of geopolitical risks has made gold an essential "safe haven" asset, negatively correlated with equity assets, thus serving as a stabilizing force in investment portfolios [2] Group 2: Advantages of Gold ETF (518800) - The gold ETF (518800) boasts significant advantages, including a scale exceeding 37 billion yuan and high liquidity, allowing for quick transactions without impacting net asset value, even for large institutional trades [3] - Each ETF share is backed by approximately 0.01 grams of physical gold, eliminating high premiums, custody fees, and discount costs associated with physical gold bars [3] - The ETF offers a competitive fee structure with a management fee of 0.5% and a custody fee of 0.1%, making it cost-effective for long-term investors in a fee-sensitive market [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Gold ETF in 2026 - Suggested strategies for navigating the current high price environment include grid trading to capitalize on price volatility above $5,000, utilizing the ETF's liquidity for intraday arbitrage [4] - A recommended asset allocation strategy involves incorporating 10%-15% of the gold ETF into traditional portfolios to effectively hedge against volatility in U.S. and A-shares, thereby optimizing the Sharpe ratio [4] - Long-term investors are advised to maintain a 50% core position in the ETF and consider dynamic reallocation when gold prices retreat to support levels, such as around $4,800, to average down costs [4]

Market Overview - The international precious metals market has regained upward momentum, with spot gold surpassing $5070 per ounce, increasing by 1.23%, and spot silver rising by 5.00% to reach $110 per ounce [1] - A significant fluctuation was observed in the previous trading day, where spot gold briefly exceeded $5100 per ounce before dropping below $5000, ultimately closing at $5010.08 per ounce, a 0.47% increase [3] - Spot silver experienced a dramatic rise of 14% during the day, reaching $117 per ounce, but closed at $103.90 per ounce, up 0.95% [3] Regulatory Actions - In response to market volatility, regulatory bodies have implemented measures to strengthen risk control, including limits on the maximum number of contracts for day trading in silver and tin futures [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for copper and aluminum futures, effective January 28 [4] Institutional Perspectives - There is a notable divergence in institutional outlooks on precious metals, with some institutions maintaining a bullish stance. Société Générale predicts gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by year-end, while Morgan Stanley sets a bullish target of $5700 per ounce [5] - Various futures companies express concerns about the current high volatility in precious metals, with expectations of significant price fluctuations, particularly in silver [6][7] - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical risks, continues to support the long-term outlook for precious metals [7]

1月26日，黄金和白银价格再创新高。伦敦现货黄金价格盘中一度突破5100美元／盎司，年内涨幅超 18%；伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破110美元／盎司，年内涨幅超50%。今年以来，贵金属价格震荡 走高，笔者认为，核心驱动来自贸易冲突、全球央行购金、地缘风险三方面。 最后，地缘风险上升使得贵金属获得了较高的风险溢价。美国年初对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，强 行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人并将他们带至美国，进一步强化了美国所谓"门罗主义"叙事，而争 夺关键矿产资源的目的也令贵金属直接受益。伊朗方面，美国官员表示，尽管已撤回对伊朗的打击计 划，但特朗普仍要求幕僚提供所谓的"决定性"军事选项。相关讨论正值美国向中东派遣航空母舰与喷气 式战斗机之际。这些部署可能标志着更大规模军事集结的开始，若特朗普决定对伊朗实施打击，此举将 为打击行动提供所需火力。美国官员透露，特朗普在描述希望美国行动对伊朗产生何种效果时，反复使 用了"决定性"一词。这一措辞促使美国五角大楼和白宫的幕僚细化了一系列供特朗普选择的方案，其中 一些方案旨在推动伊朗政权更迭。格陵兰岛方面，特朗普自去年上任以来曾多次扬言要得到格陵兰岛。 1月20日，美国总统 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% to close at 4132.61 points, with a daily high of 4160.99 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.85% to 14316.64 points, reaching a high of 14532.9 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.91% to 3319.15 points, with a peak of 3367.99 points [1] ETF Market Performance Overall Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -0.4% [2] - The highest return among scale index ETFs was 5.37% for the Shenwan Lingshin SSE 50 ETF [2] - The highest return in industry index ETFs was 6.23% for the China Tai Index Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF [2] - The highest return in strategy index ETFs was 3.17% for the Morgan SSE 300 Free Cash Flow ETF [2] - The highest return in style index ETFs was 2.1% for the Yinhua SSE 300 Value ETF [2] - The highest return in theme index ETFs was 8.67% for the Huaxia SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF [2] Top Gainers and Losers - The top three ETFs with the highest gains were: - Huaxia SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.67%) [5] - Ping An SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.57%) [5] - ICBC Credit Suisse SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.45%) [5] - The top three ETFs with the largest declines were: - Fortune SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-8.16%) [6] - China Merchants SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-7.97%) [6] - GF SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-7.91%) [6] Fund Flows - The top three ETFs with the highest inflows were: - Penghua SSE Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF (14.47 billion) [8] - Southern SSE Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF (11.45 billion) [8] - Guotai SSE Semiconductor Materials Equipment Theme ETF (11.26 billion) [8] - The top three ETFs with the largest outflows were: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (183.76 billion) [9] - Huaxia SSE 300 ETF (147.83 billion) [9] - Jiashi SSE 300 ETF (136.13 billion) [9] Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs with the highest margin buy amounts were: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (1.114 billion) [11] - E Fund ChiNext ETF (540 million) [11] - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (516 million) [11] - The top three ETFs with the highest margin sell amounts were: - Southern SSE 1000 ETF (68.87 million) [12] - Southern SSE 500 ETF (54.47 million) [12] - Huaxia SSE 1000 ETF (43.57 million) [12] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Futures indicated that gold prices still have upward momentum due to ongoing de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [14] - Guotai Futures noted that the annual increase in gold prices for 2025 is expected to reach the highest level since 1979, with potential for further upward movement [15]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical tensions are increasing, accelerating the trend of de-dollarization, which has catalyzed a "non-linear" breakout in gold prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Influences - Recent geopolitical statements, including those from Canada, have contributed to the surge in gold prices [1] - Countries such as Denmark and Sweden have announced reductions or complete divestments from U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Nations like Cambodia, Indonesia, Egypt, and India are moving their gold reserves to Shanghai/Hong Kong vaults or repatriating them [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, increasing overseas uncertainties, and the global trend of de-dollarization are expected to support gold's long-term price trajectory [1] - Central banks and issuers like Tether are continuing to purchase gold, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the metal [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold during subsequent price corrections and to accumulate positions gradually [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to have limited downside in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [2][31]. - Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [3]. - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure, with a strategy of shorting at around 800 [3]. - Palm oil may try to break through 9300 yuan, with short - term upward potential [4]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks and long - term bullish factors, and long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held [5][14]. - A - share market has increased volatility, and it is recommended to control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [8]. - Treasury bond futures may remain range - bound in the short term, with a strategy of range - bound operation [10]. - Precious metals may maintain a strong and volatile trend, with different strategies for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [13][14]. - Copper prices may be affected by CL premium and inventory, with a strategy of holding long positions lightly [18]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with strategies of selling out - of - the - money put options and shorting on rallies [21]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with a strategy of waiting for dips to buy [24]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with an arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 [27]. - Tin prices may be volatile in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [35]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range, with a strategy of range - bound operation [37]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a reference range of 14000 - 15000 [41]. - Lithium carbonate prices may be in a strong - range wide - range oscillation, and short - term operations should be cautious [45]. - Polysilicon prices may be high - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the range of 8200 - 9200, and attention should be paid to production cuts [50]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and the long - spread of hot - rolled and rebar can be held [51]. - Coking coal prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [58]. - Coke prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [61]. - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 [63]. - Manganese silicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 [67]. - Meal prices are expected to oscillate, with strong support at the bottom [70]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with increasing supply pressure [72]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [74]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [75]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 14500 [77]. - Egg prices are expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price goods [80]. - Oil prices are affected by multiple factors, with different trends for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [81][83][84]. - Red date prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [85]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [86]. - PX prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term [88]. - PTA prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term, and a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [90]. - Short - fiber prices follow raw material fluctuations, with a strategy of shorting the processing margin when it is high [92]. - Bottle - chip prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a strategy of paying attention to support and selling out - of - the - money put options [94]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern, with a positive spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options [95]. - Pure benzene prices have limited driving force due to high inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97]. - Styrene prices are in a short - term tight supply - demand situation, but the rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [99]. - LLDPE prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after taking profits on long positions [100]. - PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold the PDH profit - expanding position [101]. - Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [102]. - Caustic soda prices may have limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [105]. - PVC prices may oscillate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [107]. - Urea prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory reduction [110]. - Soda ash prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Glass prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Natural rubber prices may have limited upside due to weak demand, with an operating range of 15500 - 16500, and it is recommended to wait and see [117]. - Synthetic rubber prices are short - term strong, with a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on BR2603 [119][120]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were strong due to a weak US dollar. Mine shortages supported prices, and refined zinc supply pressure eased. Demand improved, and inventories had room for replenishment. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [2][31]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures were oscillating strongly, with a weakening basis. The market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices were under pressure due to weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short at around 800 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices may try to break through 9300 yuan, with short - term upward potential [4]. - **Gold**: Gold prices were supported by geopolitical risks and long - term bullish factors, and long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held [5]. Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market had increased volatility, and it is recommended to control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures may remain range - bound in the short term, with a strategy of range - bound operation [10]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Precious metals may maintain a strong and volatile trend. Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held; silver can be bought on dips; platinum and palladium can be bought on dips [13][14]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices were affected by CL premium and inventory. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [18]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with strategies of selling out - of - the - money put options and shorting on rallies [21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with a strategy of waiting for dips to buy [24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with an arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 [27]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to have limited downside in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [28][31]. - **Tin**: Tin prices may be volatile in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [35]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range, with a strategy of range - bound operation [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a reference range of 14000 - 15000 [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices may be in a strong - range wide - range oscillation, and short - term operations should be cautious [45]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices may be high - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the range of 8200 - 9200, and attention should be paid to production cuts [50]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and the long - spread of hot - rolled and rebar can be held [51]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure [53]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [58]. - **Coke**: Coke prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [61]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 [63]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Manganese silicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 [67]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Meal prices are expected to oscillate, with strong support at the bottom [70]. - **Hog**: Hog prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with increasing supply pressure [72]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [74]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [75]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 14500 [77]. - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price goods [80]. - **Oil**: Oil prices are affected by multiple factors, with different trends for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [81][83][84]. - **Red Date**: Red date prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [85]. - **Apple**: Apple prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [86]. Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals - **PX**: PX prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term [88]. - **PTA**: PTA prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term, and a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [90]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices follow raw material fluctuations, with a strategy of shorting the processing margin when it is high [92]. - **Bottle - chip**: Bottle - chip prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a strategy of paying attention to support and selling out - of - the - money put options [94]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices have a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern, with a positive spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a strategy of selling out - of - the money put options [95]. - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene prices have limited driving force due to high inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97]. - **Styrene**: Styrene prices are in a short - term tight supply - demand situation, but the rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [99]. - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after taking profits on long positions [100]. - **PP**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold the PDH profit - expanding position [101]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [102]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda prices may have limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [105]. - **PVC**: PVC prices may oscillate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [107]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory reduction [110]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - **Glass**: Glass prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber prices may have limited upside due to weak demand, with an operating range of 15500 - 16500, and it is recommended to wait and see [117]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber prices are short - term strong, with a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on BR2603 [119][120].

澳洲联储将于2月3日公布货币政策决议，交易员当前正聚焦本周公布的通胀数据，为澳元交易押注提供 依据。调查显示，澳大利亚上月核心消费者通胀率同比上涨3.3%，突破了澳洲联储2%-3%的目标区 间。 受央行鹰派前景影响，澳大利亚政策敏感度较高的3年期国债收益率已升至2023年11月以来的最高水 平。除高收益率外，受美国政府再次面临停摆担忧、"去美元化"趋势持续升温的影响，澳债的顶级信用 评级也吸引了大量投资者涌入。 澳大利亚联邦银行驻悉尼策略师Carol Kong表示："尽管地缘政治和贸易紧张局势再度升温，但市场对 美元的悲观情绪、澳洲联储的加息预期以及金属价格走高，共同支撑了澳元的韧性。" 智通财经APP获悉，澳洲联储的鹰派货币政策立场，叠加美日联合出手捍卫日元的预期对美元形成压 制，澳元汇率正逼近三年来的最强水平。 2026年以来，澳元兑美元汇率已累计上涨近4%，目前报约0.69，跻身今年迄今十国集团货币涨幅前 三。澳大利亚联邦银行和西太平洋银行的策略师均预测，澳元有望在3月底前升至0.70，这一价位上一 次出现还是在2023年初。 市场押注澳大利亚下月将加息，澳债收益率目前位居发达国家之首，成为澳元的重要支 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced significant volatility on January 27, with a peak around 12.22 before stabilizing at approximately 12.14, reflecting a 6.40% increase [1][2] - The trading volume reached 35,100 contracts, with a total transaction value of 427.164 million [2] - Since the market rally began on September 1 of the previous year, the cumulative increase in silver prices has reached 254.55%, with the highest price point achieved on January 27 [2] Group 2 - The demand for physical assets is rising due to escalating geopolitical tensions and a trend towards de-dollarization, which supports the market for silver [3] - The demand for silver in sectors such as photovoltaic silver paste and AI data centers continues to grow, providing additional support for silver prices [3] - Despite an expected loss in 2025 due to subsidiary issues and increased fair value losses, the company has seen an increase in both product volume and price, although these factors have not fully mitigated the negative impacts [3]

Paolini认为，关税威胁言论主要被视为策略性工具，对股票市场的持久影响有限，但对外汇的指向性则 更为清晰。 美国政策越来越着眼于推高亚洲货币汇率，而不是压缩贸易规模。 以大多数指标衡量，美元仍处于被高估状态。美联储降息、美国经济增长放缓以及去美元化趋势，均对 美元构成下行压力。 日本当局似乎也在容忍甚至鼓励日元走强，这强化了亚洲整体外币市场的升值动能。 预计汇率波动产生的宏观效应将比贸易措施更为持久，而股票盈利受到的影响应仍可控。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 百达资产管理首席策略师Luca Paolini表示，美国最新一轮关税威胁，正在加剧更深层次的外汇的市场 格局转变：美元料将进一步走弱，而亚洲货币将面临持续升值压力。 Paolini认为，关税威胁言论主要被视为策略性工具，对股票市场的持久影响有限，但对外汇的指向性则 更为清晰。 美国政策越来越着眼于推高亚洲货币汇率，而不是压缩贸易规模。 以大多数指标衡量，美元仍处于被高估状态。美联储降息、美国经济增长放缓以及去美元化趋势，均对 美元构成下行压力。 日本当局似乎也在容忍甚至鼓励日元走强，这强化了亚洲整体外币市场的升值动能。 预计汇率波动产生的宏观效应将比 ...