近年来，光伏等新能源产业以及AI、电子领域的需求爆发加速了白银的库存消耗，而全球超过七成的 白银产量来自其他金属的副产品，产量节奏由铜、铅、锌的投资周期决定，而非银价本身。这意味着， 即便价格上涨，供应也难以迅速放量。在此背景下，全球库存已降至十年低位，COMEX等交易所出现 实物交割困难。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京1月24日电在地缘政治局势紧张以及弱美元的大环境下，贵金属继续狂欢。周五，国际白 银价格首次突破100美元／盎司，黄金也逼近5000美元／盎司，双双刷新历史新高。 美国总统特朗普近期的一系列动作加剧了全球市场的"去美元化"进程，如波兰央行批准购买150吨黄金 的计划，准备将其黄金储备增加到700吨，这令黄金成为最佳的避风港，而价格弹性更活跃、现货供应 更紧张的白银再度获得加速上涨的动能。 得益于不断增长的投资需求，强劲的工业消费以及日益减少的实物供应，白银价格继2025年上涨近 150%之后，今年以来涨幅已超过40%。 ...

隔夜，贵金属市场依旧火热。现货黄金、白银纷纷再创新高。截至收盘，伦敦现货白银盘中最高触及103美元/盎司关 口，为历史首次突破三位数价位；伦敦现货黄金一度上触4900美元/盎司高位。 资本市场还在上演"高光时刻"！ 当地时间1月23日，现货黄金、白银续创历史新高。其中，伦敦现货白银大涨逾7%，历史首次站上103美元/盎司高 点，而伦敦现货黄金则离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥。 美股市场上，贵金属板块持续走强，美国黄金涨超9%，泛美白银涨超4%；个股方面，芯片巨头英特尔大跌17%，创 2024年8月以来最大单日跌幅。整体来看，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.58%，报49098.71点；纳指涨0.28%， 报23501.24点；标普500指数涨0.03%，报6915.61点。 国际局势方面，据新华社报道，英国首相斯塔默23日说，美国总统特朗普有关北约盟友军队在阿富汗战争中未上前线 作战的言论"具有侮辱性且令人震惊"，特朗普应就此道歉。特朗普日前在瑞士达沃斯接受美国福克斯新闻频道采访时 称，美国"从来没有需要过"北约，北约盟友"会说他们向阿富汗派了兵……他们确实派了，但位置略微靠后，有点脱离 前线"。 丹麦首 ...

1月23日周五，全球金属市场掀起新一轮上涨高潮，以期货即月合约收盘价计，金银齐创2020年来最大单周涨幅，进入2026年以来保持每周累涨。 纽约期银和伦敦现货白银均史上首次突破100美元关口。 黄金连续第五个交易日盘中创历史新高，进一步逼近5000美元大关，伦铜重上1.3万美元，接近本月稍早创下的盘中最高纪录。其他贵金属和工业金属涨 势凌厉。美股盘中，纽约钯金期货曾涨约7%，铂金期货曾涨超7%，伦镍和伦锡周五收盘分别涨超4%和9.5%。 这轮涨势受到多重因素推动。美元走弱、投资者资金大规模流出货币和主权债券，加之特朗普抨击美联储威胁央行独立性、美欧关系恶化以及地缘政治局 势动荡，均加剧了避险情绪，共同推动金属持续上涨。 评论提及，特朗普关于美国"舰队"正前往伊朗的言论促使投资者涌入白银、黄金和铜等基本金属。这里所说的舰队是指，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普 22日周四在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。 机构普遍看涨贵金属后市。华尔街见闻上周提到，摩根大通预计，金价到2026年第四季度将达到5000美元，长期甚至看向6000美元；花旗在牛市情景下将 未来0-3个月 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.58%, the Nasdaq up 0.28%, and the S&P 500 up 0.03% [2] - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Microsoft and Netflix rising over 3%, while AMD and Amazon increased over 2% [2] - Intel experienced a significant drop of 17%, marking its largest single-day decline since August 2024 [2] Group 2: Chinese Stocks and Indices - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.26%, with notable declines in stocks such as Xpeng down over 3%, NIO and Alibaba down over 2%, and Weibo down over 1% [3] - Conversely, stocks like Youdao rose over 4%, New Oriental increased over 2%, and Trip.com gained over 1% [3] - The FTSE China A50 Index futures rose by 0.41%, closing at 14,843 points [4] Group 3: Precious Metals - Spot silver surged by 7.34%, reaching $103.21 per ounce [5] - New York silver also increased by 7.17%, priced at $103.28 per ounce [6] - Silver saw a substantial annual increase of approximately 147%, driven by strong demand, limited refining capacity, and ongoing supply shortages [6] - Analysts noted that geopolitical tensions, a generally weaker dollar, and expectations of a shift to monetary easing by the Federal Reserve are influencing gold demand [6] - Spot gold rose by 1.01%, reaching $4,986.02 per ounce [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global metal market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold and silver reaching their highest weekly gains since 2020, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors [2][7]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold has reached a historical high, nearing $5000 per ounce, while silver has surpassed $100 for the first time in history [3][7]. - Silver futures have seen a cumulative increase of over 14% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since July 2020, and have risen over 40% year-to-date [9]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $5000 by Q4 2026, with some forecasts even suggesting a long-term target of $6000 [18]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in metal prices is attributed to a weaker dollar, significant capital outflows from currencies and sovereign bonds, and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S.-Iran relations [7][21]. - Trump's comments about U.S. military movements towards Iran have intensified safe-haven demand for metals like gold and silver [7][11]. Group 3: Emerging Market Trends - There is a notable acceleration in the de-dollarization trend globally, with emerging market assets attracting record inflows, particularly into funds like the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF [8]. - The demand for silver is bolstered by strong industrial needs, especially from the solar energy sector, and increased retail buying in China [11][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from major financial institutions like Citigroup and UBS have raised their short-term price targets for silver to $100 and $70 respectively, reflecting a bullish sentiment despite potential volatility [12][13]. - UBS anticipates that silver prices could still have about 25% upside potential from current levels, although a correction may occur later in the year [13]. Group 5: Base Metals Performance - Copper prices have rebounded, driven by a weaker dollar and supply disruptions, with LME copper trading above $13,000 per ton [19][21]. - Nickel and tin have also seen significant price increases, with nickel reaching a new high since June 2024 [19]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply chain for copper is under pressure due to labor strikes in Chile, which have halted operations at key mines [21]. - The influx of copper into Asian warehouses is partly driven by Chinese smelters capitalizing on favorable arbitrage opportunities, although domestic demand may be affected by a slowing real estate sector [22].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are entering a new long-term bull market, driven by significant changes in global macroeconomic conditions [1]. Group 1: Underlying Logic Supporting the Bull Market - The decline in real interest rates is the primary driver for gold prices, as expectations of lower yields on cash and U.S. Treasury bonds enhance gold's relative investment appeal [1]. - Central banks are increasingly accumulating gold reserves, particularly in emerging markets, to promote de-dollarization and seek safe-haven assets, providing strong support for gold prices [2]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are contributing to a "risk premium" for gold, as its status as a hard currency becomes more critical in times of conflict and instability [2]. Group 2: Silver's Role in the Bull Market - The gold-silver ratio remains historically high, indicating a strong potential for silver to catch up in price, suggesting significant upside potential [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is surging due to its essential role in high-tech manufacturing, particularly in solar panels and electric vehicles, which will further drive prices upward [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies for Precious Metals - Investors are advised to avoid high leverage due to the volatility in the precious metals market, especially with silver [3]. - A diversified investment approach is recommended, including physical gold, gold/silver ETFs, and high-quality gold mining stocks, catering to different risk appetites [4][5][6]. - Implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy is suggested to mitigate risks associated with market timing [7].

Core Insights - Silver futures in New York and spot silver in London both surpassed the historic $100 mark on January 23 [1] - Silver experienced a significant increase of approximately 147% last year, driven by strong demand, limited expansion in metal refining capacity, and ongoing supply shortages [4] - Geopolitical tensions, a generally weaker dollar, and market expectations of a shift towards monetary easing by the Federal Reserve are influencing the demand for silver [4] - The fundamental narrative for silver is considered more compelling than that for gold, as it benefits from safe-haven inflows and a weaker dollar, despite not being a reserve asset like gold [4]

关于整体资产配置思路，孙伏鲲对配置和交易作了区分，他认为资产配置的本质是长期拥有。"投资如 同足球比赛，只有确保坚固的防守，才能走得更远。"孙伏鲲表示，基于此，黄金是组合中带有进攻性 在第十二届全球衍生品实盘交易大赛轻量组第五名夏辉看来，2026年将是宏观层面出现巨大转折之年， 原因在于全球资产泡沫，特别是美股可能在狂热情绪推动下达到顶峰，同时面临破灭风险。而贯穿全年 的投资主线则是通胀卷土重来，这将主导大宗商品尤其是低位农产品和能源的轮动机会，并对美债构成 压力。 "在当前市场流动性泛滥和投资者狂热情绪的推动下，美股仍有很大的上涨空间，直至彻底泡沫化，大 概率会在今年下半年某个时间点破裂，届时流动性危机可能会影响全球金融市场。"夏辉说。 2026年以来，"黑天鹅"事件频发，给市场带来了很大的不确定性。在孙伏鲲看来，风险是金融市场与生 俱来且不可或缺的组成部分，它为市场带来波动，也创造了利润与交易机会。面对当下日益增多的"黑 天鹅"事件，他主张"反其道而行之"，不再局限于通过降低仓位来控制风险，而是利用期货、期权、对 冲与套利等多元金融工具管理风险并捕捉收益。"未来的主流将是对工具的灵活运用。因为当手中只有 ...

Core View - The central conclusion of Goldman Sachs' 2026 Global FX Outlook is that the US dollar is expected to depreciate moderately, with a cyclical pattern in the global currency market leading to significant differentiation in currency performance [1][2]. Dollar Outlook - The report maintains the view that the relative economic advantage of the US is diminishing, which will contribute to a long-term weakening of the dollar. After a significant drop in 2025, the dollar is anticipated to stabilize due to unexpected resilience in the US economy and a slowdown in policy adjustments [2][6]. - In 2026, the dollar will face opposing forces: robust global economic growth and more balanced asset returns will exert downward pressure, while the dollar remains overvalued by approximately 15%, supported by higher-than-consensus US growth expectations [2][8]. - The expected depreciation of the dollar in 2026 will be less severe than in 2025, with pro-cyclical currencies leading the downward trend [2][10]. Major Currency Outlook - **G10 Currencies**: The euro is projected to approach fair value after leading in 2025, with expectations of EUR/USD moving towards 1.25 due to increased fiscal spending in Germany and a weaker dollar [5][34]. The Japanese yen is expected to strengthen moderately, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials, but with increased volatility [42]. The British pound is likely to continue underperforming relative to European peers due to fiscal tightening and a weak economic outlook [49][55]. - **Emerging Market Currencies**: Pro-cyclical and undervalued currencies, as well as high-yield currencies from emerging markets, are identified as key investment opportunities for 2026. The South Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit are expected to outperform high-yield currencies due to supportive economic conditions in China [3][5]. - **Latin America and Africa**: Currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand are expected to gain attention due to their cyclical attributes and interest rate buffers, while the Turkish lira and Colombian peso may experience increased volatility due to political uncertainties [5][3]. Market Opportunities and Risks - Investment opportunities in 2026 will focus on pro-cyclical currencies, undervalued currencies, and high-yield emerging market currencies, with attention to cross-border M&A-related currency fluctuations [3][67]. - The report highlights that low implied volatility in the forex market may rise, providing cost advantages for directional trading [3][67]. However, risks include unexpected US economic performance, geopolitical conflicts, and policy adjustments that could lead to currency fluctuations [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged over 64% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 1979, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank demand for gold as a reserve asset [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Activities - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with net buying exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, reaching a record high of 1,089.4 tons in 2024 [9]. - The share of central bank gold purchases in global gold demand has risen from 1.85% in 2010 to 23.57% in 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards gold as a long-term asset [11]. - High levels of geopolitical tension are prompting central banks to seek alternatives to the US dollar, leading to diversified asset allocations [11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce due to increasing demand from private investors and central banks [3]. - A report indicates that gold has surpassed US Treasury bonds as the primary reserve asset for central banks outside the US, with global central banks holding 28,358.6 tons of gold valued at approximately $3.92 trillion [13]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%, the lowest in decades, reflecting a decline in the dollar's international status [17]. Group 3: Private Sector Perspectives - Private investors are also cautious about dollar assets, often selling off US stocks, bonds, and currencies during significant political turmoil in the US [19]. - The Danish "Academic Pension Fund" announced plans to sell $100 million worth of US government bonds due to concerns over the US government's fiscal situation [15].