Group 1 - China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 101,503.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating steady economic performance and progress in high-quality development [1] - Manufacturing value added in China is projected to increase from 26.6 trillion yuan in 2020 to 33.6 trillion yuan by 2024, contributing over 30% to global manufacturing growth [1][2] Group 2 - China's manufacturing value added accounted for approximately 28.8% of global manufacturing in 2023, with a projected increase to 31.6% by 2024 [2] - The United Nations Industrial Development Organization estimates that China's industrial added value will rise to 45% of the global total by 2030, significantly higher than the combined total of the US, Japan, and Germany [5] Group 3 - In 2024, China's electricity generation is expected to reach about 10.1 trillion kWh, accounting for 32.3% of the global total, surpassing the combined output of the next four countries [8] - China's manufacturing products dominate global markets, with over 50% share in categories like steel, cement, and solar products [8] Group 4 - The automotive sector is a key focus, with China's production expected to reach 31.28 million vehicles in 2024, representing 33.8% of global output [9] - China's chip production is estimated at 4.25 trillion units in 2024, accounting for about 35% of global output, but the industry faces significant challenges with a projected trade deficit of $226.1 billion in 2024 [10] Group 5 - China's manufacturing output is primarily for domestic consumption, with exports accounting for less than 30% of total manufacturing output in 2024 [13] - The trade surplus reached $785.34 billion in the first eight months of 2025, indicating a significant imbalance in global trade dynamics [16] Group 6 - China's manufacturing sector is expected to continue expanding its global competitiveness due to advantages in technology, production scale, and comprehensive cost [17] - The manufacturing sector's growth has led to a significant increase in trade surplus, which is projected to exceed $1.2 trillion for the year [16][27] Group 7 - The manufacturing industry has become a fundamental part of many countries' economies, particularly in developing regions, with exports to Africa and Belt and Road countries showing strong growth [21] - China's manufacturing capabilities have reached a level where they can meet domestic demand effectively, with no significant shortages expected in various sectors [32][37] Group 8 - The manufacturing sector's expansion has led to a unique situation where supply exceeds demand in many industries, resulting in deflationary pressures [40] - The industry is experiencing internal challenges, including issues related to overcapacity and competitive pressures, necessitating regulatory oversight [42][43]

、责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我可将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 直纺短纤负荷(周) 93.90% 94. 40% 0. 01 涤纶短纤产销 79.00% 81.00% 2. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 63. 50% 63. 50% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51.00% 51. 50% 0. 01 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 宏興宗德■ T325纯漆炒价格 (器比) 照日后 (石井) 条短现金流 =1.4D直线大提 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 + 300 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by the weak and volatile crude oil market, and its price has declined. The supply side of PTA has shrunk, and its processing fee has continued to be low. The industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. With the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the impact of the trade war on textile and clothing demand, and the PTA operating rate may further decline. It is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains low, and the arrival volume at ports within the week is still limited. Overseas imports of ethylene glycol are expected to decline, while domestic device commissioning has put continuous pressure on the price of ethylene glycol. As the polyester peak season is coming to an end and the crude oil fundamentals are weak, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price dropped from 443.8 yuan/barrel on October 16, 2025, to 432.6 yuan/barrel on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 11.20 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased by 27.39 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0186. CFR China PX decreased by 3, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 9. The PTA main futures price dropped by 54.0 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price dropped by 15.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 7.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 36.8 yuan/ton. The MEG main futures price dropped by 86.0 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha decreased by 8.2 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain and Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 84.62%. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.63% to 77.58%, the MEG operating rate decreased by 0.66% to 65.84%, and the polyester load remained unchanged at 89.38% [2]. Polyester Filament - The prices of POY150D/48F and FDY150D/96F decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton and 45.0 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of DTY150D/48F increased by 20.0 yuan/ton. The POY cash flow remained unchanged at 126, the FDY cash flow increased by 30.0 to (199), and the DTY cash flow decreased by 35.0 to 191. The long - filament sales rate decreased by 25% to 67% [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the cash flow remained unchanged at 381, and the short - fiber sales rate decreased by 3% to 84% [2]. Polyester Chip - The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton, the chip cash flow remained unchanged at 46, and the chip sales rate decreased by 137% to 188% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [3]

截至2025年10月16日，西澳FOB氧化铝价格为323美元/吨，海运费23.85美元/吨，美元/人民币汇率卖出 价在7.15附近，该价格折合国内主流港口对外售价约2880.45元/吨左右，低于SMM氧化铝指数价格50.19 元/吨，进口窗口维持开启状态。 截至本周四，全国氧化铝周度开工率小幅度下调，全国氧化铝运行产能降低94万吨至9108万吨，但国内 氧化铝供应过剩压力仍存。 截至2025年10月17日当周，氧化铝期货主力合约收于2800元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持 15873手。 本周（10月13日-10月17日）市场上看，氧化铝期货周内开盘报2856元/吨，最高触及2856元/吨，最低下 探至2773元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.68%。 消息面回顾： 南华期货：氧化铝目前仍走在过剩逻辑的道路上。目前氧化铝国内产能维持高位，过剩明显，同时进口 窗口打开，加剧供需不平衡的状态，国内外现货价格无论是网价还是成交价均持续下跌，在没有出现大 规模检修的情况现推荐仍以空头思路为主。 新湖期货：近期氧化铝产量无显著变化，运行产能平稳，产量维持在历史高位，进口量略有增加。消费 稳中略增，下游电解铝厂运行产能继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stimulating consumption is essential not only for short-term demand management but also for optimizing China's economic growth model and investing in human capital in the long term, while avoiding new capacity overcapacity [3][12]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - The urgency of policies to boost consumption is increasing as major macroeconomic indicators in China show a significant decline in year-on-year growth rates [3]. - Increasing the proportion of consumption in GDP is necessary for optimizing China's economic growth model and enhancing residents' well-being [4][7]. - The current consumption level in China is significantly lower than that of major global economies, indicating a lack of perceived economic growth benefits among residents [7]. Group 2: Investment and Human Capital - Investment should focus on enhancing future output and consumption, with a higher return on investment achievable through support for education, healthcare, and child-rearing [8]. - The macroeconomic return on educational investments is higher than that of material capital investments, suggesting that investing in human capital is more beneficial for economic growth [8]. Group 3: Capacity Overcapacity and Economic Structure - The reliance on government-led infrastructure investment has often resulted in ineffective supply and overcapacity, which does not align with market demand [10][11]. - Stimulating consumption can help reduce dependence on government investment and alleviate overcapacity pressures, leading to a more balanced economic structure [10][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically reviews the price spread between Chinese corn starch and corn from 2021 - 2025, aiming to analyze the profit - gaming logic of the starch industry under the over - supply situation. The main influencing factors of the spread are "cost - supply and demand". The price change of corn at the cost end is the basis for affecting the spread, while the supply - demand relationship of starch is the core driver of the spread's fluctuation. The supply and demand of starch are mainly reflected through processing profit, operating rate, and inventory. High inventory and high operating rate jointly form the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while low inventory and low operating rate are the core drivers for the spread to expand. High inventory limits the upward space of the spread, and industrial concentration strengthens the bottom support of the spread. In the future, the high inventory of starch serves as a major resistance, and the progress of inventory clearance will be a key observation indicator [1][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Corn Starch Industry Chain Situation - Corn starch accounts for about 52% of the deep - processed consumption of corn. Its price is strongly influenced by the cost of corn and its own fundamentals. China's corn starch is mainly self - sufficient, with imports less than 1%. The main production areas are Shandong, Heilongjiang, and Hebei, accounting for 41%, 25%, and 7% respectively [5]. - The supply - related indicators of corn starch include production capacity, operating rate, cost - profit, etc. Downstream consumption is concentrated in starch sugar and papermaking. There is a substitution relationship between starch sugar and white sugar, and the substitution effect is evident when the price difference exceeds 1500 yuan/ton. The price difference between white sugar and F55 high - fructose corn syrup this year has been maintained at a relatively high level of 2500 - 2700 yuan/ton, and the substitution continues. The operating rate of corrugated paper and boxboard is relatively stable, with an annual change of about 5% [6]. 3.2 Corn Starch Production Capacity Changes - In recent years, the production capacity of corn starch has been expanding. In 2024, the production capacity slightly declined to 2630 million tons but still remained in an over - supply situation. The production capacity is mainly concentrated in Shandong, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Jilin. Since 2020, the industry has witnessed intensified competition, and production capacity has been increasingly concentrated in leading enterprises. The over - supply has compressed industry profits and limited the upward space of the spread, while the concentration has strengthened the bottom support of the spread [9][10][11]. 3.3 Corn Starch and Corn Price Spread Review 3.3.1 2021: Starch Supply - Demand Dominated - The spread showed an M - shaped trend, fluctuating between 300 - 600 yuan/ton. From January to March, the spread widened from 350 to 600 yuan/ton due to high corn prices, limited starch operating rate, and tight inventory. From April to July, it narrowed to around 350 yuan/ton as both corn and starch faced supply - demand pressure. From August to October, it widened again to 600 yuan/ton because of the rebound of corn prices and low starch operating rate. From November to December, it narrowed as starch production increased while demand growth was slower [15][16]. 3.3.2 2022: Strong Cost Support - The spread had a larger amplitude and showed a narrowing trend. From January to February, it expanded from 350 to 580 yuan/ton due to high raw material prices and low operating rate. From March to October, it continuously narrowed to 80 yuan/ton under factors such as weak demand, over - supply, and profit - driven price cuts. From November to December, it fluctuated between 100 - 250 yuan/ton as both corn and starch were in a weak supply - demand balance [19][20]. 3.3.3 2023: Low Operating Rate - The spread showed an oscillating trend with a slowly rising center of gravity. From January to June, it widened to 400 yuan/ton due to stable corn prices and low operating rate caused by continuous losses in processing profit. From July to December, it slightly increased with a shrinking amplitude. In July - August, it narrowed due to high corn prices and weak starch supply - demand. After September, it slightly increased as new - season corn was listed [22][24]. 3.3.4 2024: Weak Supply - Demand - The spread fluctuated between 300 - 500 yuan/ton. From January to May, it first rose and then fell. In January, it reached 500 yuan/ton due to good starch demand and high operating rate. After February, it narrowed to 380 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and processing profit declined. From June to December, it also first rose and then fell. From June to early July, it slightly widened due to limited corn supply and good starch demand. From mid - July to December, it continuously narrowed as new - season corn production was expected to be high and starch inventory accumulated [25][27]. 3.3.5 2025: Supply Pressure - The spread's fluctuation amplitude was about 100 yuan/ton. From January to mid - March, it widened from 300 to 400 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and starch operating rate was high. From late March to early August, it oscillated between 340 - 400 yuan/ton due to corn price fluctuations and weak starch supply - demand. From mid - August to the present, it has been narrowing as new corn was listed, starch inventory remained high, and cassava starch squeezed the demand for corn starch [31]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - From 2021 - 2025, the spread oscillated with a narrowing range, from 300 - 600 yuan/ton in 2021 to 280 - 400 yuan/ton in 2025, and the high point declined from 600 to 400 yuan/ton. The spread showed seasonal patterns. The spread is mainly affected by "cost - supply and demand", with corn price as the basis and starch supply - demand as the core driver. Starch inventory is a key factor, and "high operating rate + high inventory" is the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while "low operating rate + low inventory" is the core driver for the spread to expand. In the future, the high inventory of starch is a major resistance, and the spread may continue to narrow. Attention should be paid to the change in starch inventory [35][36][40].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On October 14, 2025, most futures varieties showed different trends. A - share stock indexes generally declined, while some futures like coke and焦煤 showed slight increases, and others like sugar, rubber, and palm oil were affected by various factors and showed downward or fluctuating trends [1][2][3][4]. Industry Analysis Stock Index Futures - On October 14, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62% to 3865.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99% to 2955.98 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2576.2 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4539.06, a decline of 54.91 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 14, the coke weighted index showed a weak shock, closing at 1665.5, a rise of 4.8. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1167.5 yuan, a rise of 6.5. Coke's coking profit is near the break - even point, and the demand increment is insufficient. Coking coal's supply recovery is slow, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the prospect of global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season and other factors, the US sugar fell on Monday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell sharply on Tuesday and then had a slight rebound at night. As of the end of September, Guangxi's sugar sales volume increased, but the sales rate decreased, and the industrial inventory increased [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade relations, crude oil prices, and Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday and had a slight decline at night. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased compared with the same period in 2024 [6]. Palm Oil - On October 14, palm oil futures prices declined slightly. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November while keeping the export tariff unchanged [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 14, CBOT soybean futures were weakly volatile. Domestically, soybean meal futures were also weakly volatile. High imports of soybeans and the expected early listing of Brazilian soybeans help ease concerns about the supply shortage [8]. Live Pigs - On October 14, live pig futures rebounded from a low level. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but it is expected to stabilize and rebound after November, with the rebound height limited by over - capacity expectations [9]. Shanghai Copper - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and overseas copper mine supply disturbances support copper prices, but Sino - US trade disputes and weak domestic demand lead to copper price fluctuations. The inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected [9]. Iron Ore - On October 14, the iron ore 2601 contract declined. The supply is relatively loose, and there is an increasing pressure on steel mills to reduce production in the future, so the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 14, the asphalt 2511 contract declined. The production and shipment of asphalt decreased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds, so the price is in a volatile trend [10]. Logs - On October 14, log futures prices continued to decline. The spot price remained stable, and the import volume from January to September decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a pattern of inventory reduction [12]. Cotton - On the night of October 14, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13240 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Sino - US trade war has a certain suppressing effect on the cotton market [12]. Steel - On October 14, steel futures prices showed a general downward trend. After the holiday, steel demand is average, the inventory reduction speed may be slow, and the cost support is insufficient, so the steel price may be weakly volatile in the short term [12]. Alumina - On October 14, alumina futures closed at 2805 yuan/ton. The spot market supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to continue to decline [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 14, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20860 yuan/ton. The macro - situation is complex, and the supply is stable. The demand is improving, and the social inventory in the East China region has decreased [13].

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Longchen Technology is attempting its IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange for the second time after facing previous setbacks due to concerns over related party transactions with Jiangsu Shuangkai Electronics [3][4][10]. Company Overview - Company Name: Hubei Longchen Technology Co., Ltd. - Established: November 6, 2003 - Major Shareholder: Lin Meiyun controls 54.08% of the shares - Main Business: Research, production, and sales of BOPP film materials for film capacitors, divided into base film and metallized film [5]. - Industry Position: Recognized as a high-tech enterprise and a national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant, with a market share of 16.9% in BOPP base film products, ranking first in the industry [5]. IPO Progress - The IPO application was first accepted in December 2022 but faced multiple delays and was ultimately terminated in 2023 due to issues related to related party transactions [2][3]. - In 2024, the company acquired the remaining equity of Jiangsu Shuangkai for 45 million yuan to eliminate concerns over related party transactions and restarted its IPO plan, which was accepted again in June 2025 [4][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 showed a continuous growth trend, with figures of 344 million yuan, 371 million yuan, and 604 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 32% [12]. - However, net profit fluctuated significantly, with figures of 70.07 million yuan, 43.48 million yuan, and 69.31 million yuan during the same period [12][14]. - The company reported negative cash flow from operating activities over the three years, totaling a net outflow of 124 million yuan [15][16]. Profitability Concerns - The company's gross profit margin has been declining for two consecutive years, with rates of 41.12%, 33.23%, and 29.66% from 2022 to 2024, a total decrease of 11.46 percentage points [20]. - The decline in gross margin is attributed to falling product prices and rising costs of polypropylene resin, which constitutes 60%-70% of production costs and is heavily reliant on imports [21][22]. Industry Challenges - The domestic BOPP industry is experiencing overcapacity, with a significant increase in production lines leading to a supply-demand imbalance [26][29]. - By 2024, the BOPP industry's capacity reached 768,040 tons, with a utilization rate of only 59.82% [29]. - The company plans to raise 375 million yuan for expansion projects, but it faces challenges in justifying this to the Beijing Stock Exchange amid industry overcapacity concerns [30].

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is at a crossroads of unprecedented opportunities and uncertainties, driven by technological advancements and geopolitical factors affecting equipment procurement [2][4] - The WFE market is projected to reach $184 billion by 2030, with equipment shipments at $151 billion and service shipments at $33 billion, reflecting a stable growth trajectory despite structural inefficiencies and economic pressures [2] WFE Market: Overcapacity and Redundancy - The semiconductor industry is facing significant overcapacity, with foundries and IDMs experiencing low utilization rates and squeezed profitability, yet equipment investments continue [4] - This dynamic leads to redundant construction of fabs as regions seek to strengthen local manufacturing ecosystems, ensuring sustained demand for WFE tools despite short-term returns being suppressed [7] Competitive Landscape - The market concentration among the "Big Five" remains a notable characteristic of the WFE industry, reflecting the capital intensity, technical expertise, and long-term relationships required to serve leading chip manufacturers [9][10] - By 2024, the "Big Five" (ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA) are expected to hold nearly 70% of the market share, with ASML leading at approximately 20% due to its dominance in EUV lithography [15] Equipment Segmentation: Technology and Applications - In 2024, lithography equipment will dominate the market with a 26.5% share, followed by deposition, etching, cleaning, and measurement [12] - The compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) for various technologies from 2024 to 2030 are as follows: lithography at +4.7%, etching and cleaning at +5.5%, deposition at +4.0%, and wafer bonding at +10.4% [16] Innovation Driven by Competition - The evolution of semiconductor devices is driving corresponding innovations in the WFE sector, with suppliers needing to respond quickly to maintain competitiveness [19] - Key innovation drivers from 2024 to 2030 include the need for WFE suppliers to provide integrated process solutions that balance specialization and flexibility [19] WFE Market Dynamics - The WFE market reflects the contradictions of modern semiconductor manufacturing, with global overcapacity and low profitability pressures on foundries, while technological autonomy and innovation support market growth [23] - By 2030, the WFE market is expected to grow to $184 billion, driven by stable CAGRs of 4-5% in equipment and services, with market leadership remaining concentrated among the "Big Five" [23]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued an announcement to address disorderly competition in certain industries, proposing measures such as evaluating average industry costs, enhancing price regulation, and standardizing bidding behaviors to maintain fair competition [1][3] Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - From January to August, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 4.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, which was better than Bloomberg's forecast of a 1.6% decline, reversing the downward trend in cumulative profits since May [1] - In August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 20.4% year-on-year, indicating that government actions to address overcapacity and excessive competition are proving effective [1][3] Group 2: Price Index and Economic Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, with the rate of decline narrowing compared to July, marking the first alleviation of factory deflation pressure in six months [3] - The chief statistician of the Industrial Department at the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized the need to further expand domestic demand and standardize competition to create favorable conditions for the sustained recovery of industrial profits [3] - The chief economist at Minsheng Bank noted that with ongoing efforts to combat "involution," market competition is gradually improving, and industrial profits are expected to continue a moderate recovery trend [3]