Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **gold market** and its macroeconomic implications, particularly in relation to developed economies' fiscal risks and monetary credit concerns [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The macroeconomic logic supporting gold prices remains unchanged, driven by concerns over fiscal risks in developed economies and the impact of global demand downturns [1][3]. - Gold prices are expected to remain optimistic throughout the year, with potential for further increases beyond **$4,000 per ounce**, although short-term pullback risks should be monitored [1][4]. - Key drivers for the recent surge in gold prices include the **U.S. government shutdown** and political changes in **Japan and France**, which have highlighted fiscal vulnerabilities in developed markets [2]. - The **ETF market demand**, central bank purchases, and futures market activity are critical factors influencing gold pricing dynamics [1][7]. - In 2025, the primary driver for new highs in gold prices is anticipated to be strong inflows into ETFs in Western markets, while declines in gold jewelry consumption in **China and India** have a minimal impact on prices [8][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - The behavior of financial investors, particularly in the ETF market and COMEX futures, significantly affects short-term price trends, while non-financial investors like jewelry consumers have less influence [7][10]. - The analysis of ETF regional structures, COMEX futures positions, and regional price differentials is essential for tracking gold price movements, revealing a cooling domestic investment climate amid ongoing overseas fiscal issues [11]. - Future challenges for the gold market include monitoring U.S. economic data in early 2026, as successful recovery trades or advancements in AI could lead to a diversion of funds away from gold, creating potential downward pressure on prices [6][12].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The recent surge in precious metals is driven by three main factors: the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical risks from the U.S. government shutdown, and structural support from global central bank gold purchases [1][2][4] - Gold prices have reached a milestone, with spot gold exceeding $4000 per ounce for the first time, marking a year-to-date increase of over 54% [2][4] - Silver prices have also seen significant gains, with spot silver reaching a historical high of $49.54 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 68% [2][3] Group 2: Economic and Political Influences - The unexpected U.S. government shutdown has created uncertainty in economic data releases, impacting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and increasing market risk aversion [3][4] - Changes in political situations in countries like France and Japan have further highlighted gold's safe-haven attributes [2][3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Analysts note that silver has outperformed gold recently, indicating its high elasticity due to both financial and industrial demand [3][4] - The current gold-silver ratio is significantly above historical averages, suggesting that silver remains undervalued and has substantial room for price correction [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for precious metals, citing ongoing global trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks as strong support factors [4][5] - The potential for continued Federal Reserve easing and escalating geopolitical conflicts could drive gold and silver prices higher [4][5] Group 5: Base Metals Market Overview - The base metals sector has shown strong performance, particularly copper, which has recently surpassed the $10,500 per ton mark and is expected to remain tight due to supply disruptions [6][7] - The price of cobalt has surged by 29% since September, reflecting a growing awareness of resource security among nations [6][7] Group 6: Supply Chain Concerns - Frequent disruptions in global copper supply, particularly from incidents in Indonesia and Chile, have tightened supply expectations and are likely to lead to higher copper prices in the fourth quarter [7] - The Grasberg mine incident is expected to have a long-term impact on global copper supply, potentially catalyzing a new upward cycle in copper prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic moment, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce, driven by a combination of risk aversion, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of October 8, 2025, spot gold prices reached a record high of over $4000 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in the precious metals market [2]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by more than 52%, translating to an approximate rise of $1400 per ounce [2]. - The New York futures market saw gold prices touch $4010 per ounce, indicating a new phase for the precious metals market [2]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have also surged, nearing $48 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 67%, outperforming gold [2]. - The World Silver Association projects a global silver supply-demand gap of 120 million ounces by 2025, a historical record [4][8]. - Industrial demand for silver has surpassed 50% of total demand, with the photovoltaic industry being a key growth driver [4][5]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - Central banks are expected to maintain strong demand for gold, with annual demand projected between 900 to 950 tons in 2025, slightly below last year's record levels [2]. - Notable central bank activities include Poland's central bank increasing its gold holdings by 67 tons and China's central bank maintaining a consistent increase in gold reserves [2]. Group 4: Market Influences - The U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP loss of $15 billion per week [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the political crisis in France and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened global risk aversion, benefiting gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2]. - Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are rising, with a 97% probability of a cut in October and 88% in December, making gold more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [2]. Group 5: Price Forecasts - Major financial institutions have raised their price forecasts for gold and silver, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce [7]. - HSBC has adjusted its silver price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $38.56 and $44.5 per ounce, respectively [11]. - UBS has also raised its silver price predictions to $52 and $55 per ounce, reflecting a strong outlook for the silver market [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a record high of $3920 per ounce, is driven by multiple favorable factors, marking gold as one of the best-performing assets of 2025 with an increase of over 48% year-to-date [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent weak economic data from the U.S., including a decline in job openings and an increase in unemployment claims, has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown due to the failure to pass a funding bill has contributed to rising global risk aversion, further boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Global Demand for Gold - The share of the U.S. dollar in global central bank reserves has decreased from 60% in 2000 to 43% in 2024, with several countries, including China and India, increasing their gold holdings, indicating a fundamental shift in global gold demand [5]. - Domestic gold brands have rapidly adjusted their prices in response to international gold price movements, with significant increases in retail prices for gold jewelry [5]. Group 3: Market Predictions - UBS predicts that gold prices could reach between $3900 and $4200 by mid-2026, while Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic, suggesting a potential challenge to the $4000 mark [7]. - Experts advise investors to adopt a cautious approach, recommending a strategic allocation of around 5% of their portfolio to gold to hedge against inflation and market volatility [7]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The current gold bull market signifies not just a price increase but also a profound restructuring of the global monetary system and economic landscape, suggesting that the narrative surrounding gold is just beginning [9].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of over $3,800 per ounce, is driven by a combination of political instability in the U.S., expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and systemic gold purchases by global central banks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The political deadlock in Washington, particularly the breakdown of negotiations between the Trump administration and congressional leaders, has heightened risk aversion in capital markets, propelling gold prices [1]. - The London gold market is experiencing a rare phenomenon where traders are rapidly transporting gold bars from the Bank of England to New York to fill physical gaps in the COMEX futures market, indicating deep-seated anxieties about the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][3]. - The gold ETF market in China has seen a significant increase, with total assets reaching 160 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor confidence in gold as a financial asset [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are a key driver, with market predictions showing a 90% chance of a cut in October and a 65% chance in December, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, have shifted gold's demand from short-term hedging to long-term strategic allocation [2]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a projected net purchase of 1,089.4 tons in 2024, indicating a structural shift in gold's role from an investment asset to a strategic reserve [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Imbalances - The global supply of gold is constrained, with new discoveries limited and recycling of gold affected by high prices, leading to a structural gap between demand and supply [4]. - The total demand for gold is expected to reach a record 4,974 tons in Q4 2024, while supply is only projected to grow by 1.2%, exacerbating the price increase [4]. - A significant movement of gold worth $82 billion from London to New York has led to a spike in gold leasing rates, indicating tight physical supply [3][4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The market sentiment is mixed, with institutional investors showing strong confidence in gold, as evidenced by hedge funds holding a record net long position of $73 billion, while some retail investors are taking profits [3]. - Technical indicators suggest that gold is in an overbought territory, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 78, indicating potential for a correction if prices fall below $3,165 per ounce [4]. - The divergence in views on gold's future, with some believing its safe-haven properties are diminished while others see long-term support from central bank purchases, reflects the complex dynamics at play in the market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.45% to 854.72 yuan/gram, while the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.08% to 10,411 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The US economic data is performing well, the US dollar index has rebounded, the trade situation between the US and Europe has further eased, and the market has closed positions in advance before the National Day holiday to avoid risks. As a result, the upward trend of gold has slowed down and entered a high - level shock. However, silver, boosted by its industrial attributes and the sharp rise of copper, has continued its upward trend. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged a rate cut by the end of the year, and the probability of two more rate cuts this year remains high. In the long run, precious metal prices still have room to rise [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - **Price Data**: On September 25, 2025, the price of London gold was 3,740.94 US dollars/ounce, London silver was 43.96 US dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,771.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 44.26 US dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 851.74 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 10,370 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 850.58 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 10,346 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the price of gold generally decreased, with a decline of 0.8% for London gold, 0.9% for COMEX gold, 0.5% for AU2510, and 0.5% for AU (T + D). The price of silver also mostly decreased, with a decline of 0.3% for London silver and 0.2% for COMEX silver, but AG2510 and AG (T + D) increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Data**: On September 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 1.16 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) was - 4.78 yuan/gram, the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) was - 896 yuan/kilogram, the ratio of SHFE gold - silver main contracts was 82.14, the ratio of COMEX gold - silver main contracts was 85.22, the spread of AU2512 - 2510 was 2.98 yuan/gram, and the spread of AG2512 - 2510 was 41 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 28.9%, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased by 31.0%, etc. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Non - commercial Positions**: As of September 16, 2025 (weekly data), on September 24, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 60,368 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 266,410 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position increased by 0.59%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 4.38%, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.78%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 20,085 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 51,538 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position decreased by 1.14%, the non - commercial short position increased by 8.49%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 4.45% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 24, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR was 996.85 tons, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV was 15,469.12379 tons. Compared with September 23, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.37%, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On September 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 65,634 kilograms, an increase of 8.41% compared with September 24. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,156,855 kilograms, a decrease of 0.43% compared with September 24 [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,807,223 troy ounces, an increase of 0.16% compared with September 23. The COMEX silver inventory was 527,155,089 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% compared with September 23 [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: On September 25, 2025, the US dollar index was 97.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11. Compared with September 24, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.13%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [3][4]. - **Index**: On September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6,637.97, and the NYMEX crude oil price was 64.81. Compared with September 24, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.76%, and the NYMEX crude oil price increased by 1.82% [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with both London gold spot and COMEX gold futures reaching historical highs, driven by various factors including monetary policy shifts and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On September 23, London gold spot prices peaked at $3,791.08 per ounce, marking a historical high with a daily increase of 1.21% and a monthly increase of approximately 8.7% [1]. - COMEX gold futures reached a maximum of $3,824.6 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.31% and a monthly increase of about 7.6% [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The rise in gold prices is primarily attributed to the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, including a recent 25 basis point rate cut, which has fueled expectations of a global easing cycle [3]. - Structural factors such as escalating geopolitical tensions and military conflicts have led to increased safe-haven investments in gold [3]. - The sensitivity of gold to global liquidity and inflation, along with strong demand from central banks, particularly in light of ongoing fiscal pressures in the U.S., are significant catalysts for the price increase [3][5]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally have continued to purchase gold, with a net acquisition of 166 tons reported in the second quarter of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for gold demand despite a slowdown in purchasing pace [4]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 7.402 million ounces by the end of August 2025 [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a phased buying strategy in gold, focusing on gold ETFs and companies involved in gold mining and sales, while being cautious with high-leverage products like futures and options [6]. - It is emphasized that investors should understand their risk tolerance and actively monitor macroeconomic changes affecting the gold market [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices fluctuated widely at high levels but continued to rise on a weekly basis. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot predicts two more rate cuts this year. However, due to the market's prior pricing of the rate - cut benefits and the Fed's neutral - to - hawkish tone, the prices first rose and then fell. Later, dovish remarks from Fed officials and the US government's "shutdown" risk drove prices up again. But the strong US economic data may suppress the upward pace of precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong at high levels, but with the approaching National Day holiday, the risk of increased volatility should be watched. In the long - term, the bullish view remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy gold on dips [5]. - The underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. Trump's policy combination will increase the US federal government debt, weaken the US dollar's credit, and combined with expected Fed rate cuts, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued central bank gold purchases, it will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE:行情及基本面指标跟踪 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - London spot gold rose from $3642.635/oz to $3684.650/oz, a weekly increase of 1.15%. Shanghai gold futures' main contract fell from 834.22 yuan/gram to 830.56 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.44%. London spot silver rose from $42.1610/oz to $43.0590/oz, an increase of 2.13%. Shanghai silver futures' main contract fell from 10035 yuan/kg to 9971 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.64%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio rose from 83.13 to 83.30, an increase of 0.20% [4]. 3.1.2 ETF and CFTC Positions - The gold SPDR - ETF持仓 increased from 974.8 tons to 994.56 tons, an increase of 2.03%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓 increased from 15070 tons to 15205 tons, an increase of 0.90%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 4670 contracts to 266410 contracts, an increase of 1.78%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 2399 contracts to 51538 contracts, a decrease of 4.45% [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory Data - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased from 52.95 tons to 57.429 tons, an increase of 8.46%. The COMEX gold inventory increased from 1210.38 tons to 1227.45 tons, an increase of 1.41%. The SHFE silver inventory decreased from 1247 tons to 1159 tons, a decrease of 6.99%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased from 16405 tons to 16300 tons, a decrease of 0.64%. The SGE silver inventory (lagged one week) increased from 1248 tons to 1252 tons, an increase of 0.33% [4]. 3.2 PART TWO:主要宏观指标跟踪 3.2.1 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index rose slightly from 97.6178 to 97.6519, an increase of 0.03%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB fell from 7.1237 to 7.1196, a decrease of 0.06%. The 2 - year US Treasury yield rose from 3.5494% to 3.5673%, an increase of 0.50%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose from 4.0701% to 4.1255%, an increase of 1.36%. The US 10 - year real interest rate rose from 1.7% to 1.75%, an increase of 2.94% [4]. 3.2.2 US Economic Data - The US GDP showed a strong second - quarter growth, but the manufacturing and service PMI both declined. Retail sales data was strong, while consumer confidence declined. Employment cooled significantly, with weak August non - farm payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. Inflation showed signs of rising [53][60][65]. 3.2.3 Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI increased, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data showed different trends in the Eurozone and the UK [73][74]. 3.2.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month. In August 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.02 million ounces (about 2302.279 tons), a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.87 tons). Global central banks continued to be net buyers of gold in 2025, although the pace slowed down. In the first half of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - bought 415.1 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 20.4% [83].

Core Viewpoint - The gold price is currently experiencing fluctuations near historical highs, with a divergence in bullish and bearish sentiment. The upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the Markit PMI, is expected to significantly influence short-term price movements [5]. Group 1: Market Predictions - If the U.S. Markit PMI data released on September 23 is weak, it may reinforce expectations for continued Fed rate cuts, potentially supporting gold prices and allowing them to test the $3700-$3710 resistance area [2]. - Conversely, if the PMI data is strong, it could bolster the U.S. dollar and dampen expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, putting downward pressure on gold prices, with key support levels to watch at $3660-$3650 and possibly down to $3630-$3620 [2]. Group 2: Key Economic Indicators - Important upcoming economic data includes the U.S. September Markit PMI (September 23), the August core PCE price index (September 26), and the second quarter GDP final value along with August durable goods orders (September 25). These indicators are crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. economy and will influence market sentiment [3]. - The remarks from Fed officials, particularly from newly appointed member Miran, who has previously advocated for more significant rate cuts, could also impact market expectations regarding interest rates [3]. Group 3: Support Factors for Gold - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties [2][5]. - Notably, the Chinese central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, providing medium to long-term support for gold prices [3].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold and silver continued their strong upward trend, with silver showing a more robust performance. The weakening employment and consumer confidence in the US, along with limited inflation recovery, strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting precious metal prices. Silver also showed a significant catch - up effect. [2] - In the short term, with the almost certain rate cut in September, precious metal prices are expected to remain high and strong. However, the recent rise may have fully priced in the September rate - cut expectation, so there is a risk of "buy the rumor, sell the fact," and short - term market volatility may intensify. [4] - In the long term, gold prices still have upward potential due to factors such as the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, global geopolitical instability, intensifying anti - globalization, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit, which support central banks' net gold purchases. [4] Summary by Directory PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price Movements**: Last week, London spot gold broke through the $3650/ounce mark, and Shanghai gold futures' main contract exceeded 840 yuan/kg, both hitting new highs. London silver broke through the $42/ounce mark, and Shanghai silver futures' main contract exceeded 10,000 yuan/kg, reaching a high since the end of December 2012. [2] - **Data Metrics**: For gold, London spot gold rose 1.58% week - on - week, and Shanghai gold's main contract rose 2.28%. For silver, London spot silver rose 2.91% week - on - week, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 2.27%. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ETF holdings, and inventory. [3] PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **US Economic Indicators** - **GDP**: The US second - degree GDP growth was strong, but consumer confidence declined again. Manufacturing and service PMI both dropped, and retail sales data showed mixed trends. [55][56] - **Employment**: The employment market cooled significantly. The August non - farm payrolls were weak, the unemployment rate rose, job vacancies decreased, labor participation increased, and wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year. [62][66] - **Inflation**: There was a rising pressure on inflation. Core commodity inflation increased, while core service inflation decreased. Consumer inflation expectations also rose significantly. [68][71] - **European Economic Indicators** - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI recovered, while the service PMI declined. GDP showed a bottom - up trend, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented. [75][77] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases** - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 10 consecutive months. As of the end of August, China's gold reserves were about 2302.279 tons, with a month - on - month increase of about 1.87 tons. [85] - Global central banks maintained net gold purchases in 2025. In the first half of 2025, they net - purchased 415.1 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 20.4%. [85]