全球贸易战不断升级 英国企业活动跌至两年多来最疲弱水平 金十数据4月23日讯，周三公布的调查显示，在全球贸易战不断升级的压力下，英国企业陷入困境，这 场贸易战可能使英国经济陷入新的衰退。英国4月服务业PMI从3月份的51.5下滑至4月份的48.2，是自 2022年11月以来的最低水平。出口订单以2020年新冠疫情爆发初期以来的最快速度下降，而随着就业税 的提高和最低工资的提高，企业成本以两年多来最快的速度增长。标普全球首席商业经济学家威廉姆森 说，数据显示英国经济目前正以0.3%左右的季度速度收缩，" 4月信心崩溃和产出下降，对近期经济前 景发出了危险信号，并增加了英国央行在5月会议上再次降息的压力。" ...

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Core Viewpoint - Kimberly-Clark Corp. has lowered its profit expectations for the year due to the impact of global trade tensions on its costs, leading to uncertainty in its financial outlook [1] Financial Performance - The company now anticipates that its adjusted operating profit for 2025 will be flat or show slight growth, a revision from the earlier forecast of high single-digit growth made in January [1] - CEO Mike Hsu indicated that the current environment will result in higher costs for the global supply chain than previously expected at the beginning of the year [1] Management Outlook - Despite the challenges, the CEO expressed confidence that the company can offset these costs over time, which would help improve profitability [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Monday's freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends, with the main contract closing down 2.12% and far - month contracts down between 1 - 3%. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war dampens foreign trade demand and restricts freight rates. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index is 1508.44, up 106.09 points from last week, a 7.6% week - on - week increase. The panic - hedging sentiment caused by Sino - US tariff hikes may dominate the market in the short term, increasing the volatility of the freight index (European line) futures. In the medium to long term, it depends on global economic resilience and the export substitution effect. If Sino - European trade volume increases or the US tariff rate on Europe is better than expected, far - month futures prices may perform better than near - month contracts. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and closely monitor US policies towards Europe and Sino - European foreign trade data [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The EC main contract closed at 1522.000, down 33.0; the EC sub - main contract closed at 1712.8, up 44.10. The EC2506 - EC2508 spread was - 190.80, down 70.00; the EC2506 - EC2510 spread was 210.90, down 22.40. The EC contract basis was - 13.56, up 117.09. The main contract's open interest was 37752 lots, down 37 [1]. - **Spot Indices**: SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1508.44, up 106.09; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1368.41, down 219.43. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1370.58, down 24.10. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1110.94, up 3.66; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1486.14, down 9.31. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1261.00, down 20.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1273.00, down 35.00 [1]. - **Charter Rates**: The average charter price for Panamax ships was 11777.00, up 119.00; for Cape - size ships was 12059.00, down 218.00 [1]. Industry News - The US Trade Representative's Office announced the final measures of the 301 investigation into China's logistics, maritime and shipbuilding sectors. China's Ministry of Commerce and industry associations urged the US to correct its wrong practices, stating that the US measures are unilateral, protectionist, discriminatory, and violate WTO rules [1]. - A German economic research institute's report shows that in the next four years, US "reciprocal tariff" measures may cause Germany to lose 290 billion euros and the EU to lose 1.1 trillion euros, bringing global trade war risks and negative impacts on the global economy [1].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization with a slight decrease in sales area, indicating a need for further consolidation of this trend [1][2][11] Sales Performance - In March, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, a reduction of 4.2 percentage points compared to January-February, but still remains in negative territory [1][2] - The sales improvement is more pronounced in high-tier cities, with 40 cities reporting a 6% year-on-year increase in new home transaction area [2][11] - As of April 11, the transaction area in these 40 cities decreased by 4% year-on-year, indicating a weakening momentum compared to March [2] Investment and Construction - The real estate development investment in March fell by 10.0% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-February [11] - There is a notable improvement in construction enthusiasm among real estate companies, with new construction area in March decreasing by 18.1%, a significant narrowing of the decline by 11.5 percentage points compared to January-February [11] - The completion area in March also saw a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, with a reduction in the decline by 4.1 percentage points compared to January-February [11] Policy and Market Outlook - The external pressures from global trade uncertainties have led to a long-term strategy of expanding domestic demand, with expectations for increased supportive policies in the real estate sector [17] - The ongoing push for policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand is anticipated to continue, with a recommendation for high-quality commercial real estate companies [17]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been characterized by significant volatility, with prices rising over 10% in the first quarter and reaching a 34-month high before experiencing a drop of over 20% in just five trading days, driven by macroeconomic shocks and supply-demand mismatches [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in tin prices is attributed to two main factors: the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy raising concerns about increased global trade costs and demand contraction, and supply expectation adjustments from major producing regions like Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. - The ongoing trade war and changing tariff policies have led to heightened market risk aversion, significantly impacting tin as a high-volatility commodity [2]. - The tightening of dollar liquidity and geopolitical conflicts have further exacerbated market fluctuations, with LME tin inventories dropping to their lowest point in 2023 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current supply-demand dynamics indicate a "tight but not lacking" supply situation, with demand showing signs of recovery from weakness [6]. - Data shows that China's tin ore imports in January-February 2025 fell nearly 50% year-on-year, with a sharp 81.07% decline in imports from Myanmar, influenced by recent earthquakes affecting supply [6]. - The global mining capital expenditure growth rate for tin-related projects from 2019 to 2024 is only 1.2%, indicating a mismatch between existing project recovery and new project development timelines against demand growth [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for tin is expected to significantly improve in the medium to long term, supported by growth in sectors such as semiconductor chips, 5G communications, photovoltaic cells, and AI chip soldering materials [6][8]. - The International Tin Association predicts a "non-linear leap" in tin demand from AI servers, with consumption per server expected to be three times that of traditional devices by 2025 [8]. - Despite the ongoing global trade tensions, tin is recognized as a strategic resource, with its overall value anticipated to rise as macroeconomic concerns are gradually absorbed by the market [8].

| 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22970元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22750元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22930元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 | 期货市场上看，4月14日收盘，沪锌期货主力合约报22515.00元/吨，涨幅0.76%，最高触及22595.00元/ 吨，最低下探22355.00元/吨，日内成交量达155488手。 【市场资讯】 4月14日，LME锌库存录得11.73万吨，较上一日减少2050吨，减少幅度为1.72%；最近一周，LME锌库 存累计减少1.10万吨，减少幅度为8.59%；最近一个月，LME锌库存累计减少4.22万吨，减少幅度为 26.46%。 4月14日，上期所沪锌期货仓单录得6883吨，较上一交易日减少74吨；最近一周，沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has faced significant challenges recently, with its stock price dropping approximately 30% since the end of 2024, indicating that aggressive growth rates may be a thing of the past. Analysts suggest that Nvidia's stock is overvalued and recommend selling due to substantial downside potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia experienced a strong finish in 2024 with soaring revenues, but market sentiment is shifting as competitors like Deepseek demonstrate higher efficiency at lower costs, raising doubts about the necessity of Nvidia's GPUs for running models [2][3]. - Reports indicate that Microsoft has paused some data center projects, suggesting potential overcapacity in AI data centers, which could negatively impact Nvidia's performance in upcoming quarters [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Major clients of Nvidia, including Amazon, OpenAI, Google, and Meta, are developing custom chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, threatening its dominance in the AI accelerator market [3][4]. - The escalation of global trade tensions poses additional challenges for Nvidia, particularly in its operations in China, where sales remain below pre-export control levels [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Valuation - Nvidia's stock was previously overvalued at $132 per share, with an intrinsic value estimated at $91.20 per share. Current economic factors suggest that intrinsic value may be even lower, indicating further downside potential [4][6]. - Updated valuation models show Nvidia's enterprise value at $1.79 trillion and equity value at $1.83 trillion, translating to an intrinsic value of $73.87 per share, suggesting Nvidia is overvalued by approximately 22% [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts have adjusted sales growth expectations for fiscal year 2026 down to 50% due to the impact of trade tensions, with further adjustments likely after the first quarter earnings report [5][6]. - Despite the challenging environment, there are signals that the U.S. government may be open to trade negotiations, which could alleviate some economic pressures on Nvidia [8].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is facing significant challenges due to China's imposition of a 34% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. imports, raising concerns about potential price increases for drugs and the risk of a global trade war [1][2][6]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Major large-cap pharmaceutical companies experienced substantial stock declines, with AbbVie, Amgen, Merck, and Pfizer losing 7.3%, 5.0%, 5.7%, and 5.4% respectively [3]. - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk also saw declines of 6.5% and 6.8%, influenced by the Trump administration's decision not to expand Medicare coverage for weight-loss drugs [4]. - The overall market was affected, with the S&P 500 declining 6%, the Dow falling 5.5%, and the Nasdaq dropping 5.8% [5]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The tariff policy, while aimed at boosting U.S. investments, is likely to increase costs for drugmakers, particularly affecting those with thin profit margins, such as generic and biosimilar manufacturers [6]. - Potential supply shortages may arise as some countries exporting drugs or APIs to the U.S. might withdraw from the market, disrupting the global supply chain [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Uncertainty - The resignation of Dr. Peter Marks from the FDA has raised concerns about regulatory clarity and innovation momentum in the biotech sector [8]. - The appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as head of Health and Human Services has sparked criticism due to his vaccine skepticism, raising fears about the influence on public health policy [9]. - Kennedy's push for a nationwide ban on direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising could significantly alter marketing strategies for healthcare products in the U.S. [10].

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 4月7日消息，受特朗普抛出的"对等关税"政策影响，中国台湾地区股票交易市场出现 "跳水式暴 跌"， 台积电 开盘近下跌10%， 触发台股熔断机制！ 今日是台湾地区清明连假结束后的首个台股交易日，据台媒报道，开盘后台股便出现"跳水式暴 跌"。大盘一开盘便狂泻2000点，不仅失守具有象征意义的2万点重要关卡，还创下了台股史上"最 大开盘跌点纪录"。 台积电开盘跳空跌停价848元，为去年8月初以来低位，也是 16 年 4 个月以来首次开盘即跳空跌 停。台积电上一次盘中触及跌停是2024年8月 5 日，因美股收黑走低。上一次开盘即跳空跌停是 16 年 4 个月前的 2008 年 12 月 2 日，当时次级房贷危机引发全球金融海啸。 据报道，岛内"三大权值股"台积电、鸿海、联发科同步亮灯跌停，电子、AI、金融等板块全面溃 散，盘面血流成河。 岛内有机构表示，美国政府4月2日公布关税政策不仅冲击全球股市、引发多个经济体表态反制，全 球贸易战升温，市场担忧美国经济未来发展打击美股与台股投资人信心，不利台股近期表现 ...