Group 1 - The Trump administration is expected to take measures to alleviate the impact of its auto tariff policy, including preventing the stacking of tariffs on imported cars and easing tariffs on certain imported auto parts [1][4] - The decision will have retroactive effects, allowing car manufacturers who have already paid tariffs to apply for refunds [1][4] - The new measures include adjustments to the previously announced 25% tariff on foreign auto parts, with potential tax refunds for manufacturers based on the value of cars produced domestically [4][5] Group 2 - The 25% tariff on imported cars and key auto parts officially took effect on May 3, which is seen as a significant escalation in the trade war following tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][5] - The tariffs are expected to have a severe impact on economies of neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico, as well as allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea, prompting strong reactions from foreign governments [4][5] - Many U.S. companies and media outlets express concerns that the auto tariffs could negatively affect the U.S. economy, with predictions of increased car costs for consumers and potential job losses in the auto industry [5]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日 热点品种 沥青： 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升 2.0 个百分点至 30.7%，较去年同期高了 7.1 个百分点，沥青开工率继续回升，升至近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据， 5 月份预计排产 231.8 万吨，环比增加 2.9 万吨，增幅为 1.3%，同比增加 3 万 吨，增幅为 1.3%。上周沥青下游开工率环比提升，其中道路沥青开工环比增加 4.5 个百分点至 24.5%，开工率提升较快，但仍处于偏低水平。上周炼厂复产叠 加节前备货，沥青出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加 42.42%至 29.11 万吨， 升至中性偏低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比略有下降，仍处于近年来同期的 最低位，南方有降雨间歇影响，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。4 月 16 日，美国财政 部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零。近 期美国加大对伊朗的制裁，美伊第三轮间接会谈结束，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示， 双方仍存在分歧。但双方承诺会 ...

"全球贸易战的始作俑者" ——多国媒体和专家批评美国滥施关税 科摩罗主流网络媒体科摩罗新闻网批评美国以"全球贸易警察"自居发起关税战，不仅是蓄意挑 衅，更是犯下战略错误，由此引发的经济紧张局势让世界变得十分脆弱。 克罗地亚经济分析师佩塔尔·武什科维奇表示，美国关税政策可能成为"全球经济衰退的导火索"。 从全球股市剧烈波动可以看出，经济衰退迹象已经显现，所有利益相关方都面临美国带来的风 险。 美国新一届政府上台后，推出一系列规模大、范围广、破坏性强的关税政策，引发国际社会广泛 批评。多国人士及国际舆论指出，美国单方面挑起全球贸易战并将关税工具化、武器化，美方霸 凌胁迫之举逆世界潮流而动，只会害人害己。 将世界经济置于危险境地 如果将一系列最新关税措施相叠加，美国关税税率将攀升至一个多世纪以来最高水平。不少媒体 报道说，美国在历史上屡次挑起贸易战，当前做法更是变本加厉。 彭博社刊文将美国称作"全球贸易战的始作俑者"。文章说，如果所谓"对等关税"全部生效，这将 是美国自1968年以来最大规模的一次加税，而"白宫没有任何后备措施来避免经济衰退"。 斯里兰卡卫报网刊文说，美国继近一个世纪前发动全球贸易战后，如今再次挥舞 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of gold, highlighting a long upper shadow candlestick pattern and a drop from the 3500 level to around 3260, questioning whether the downward trend will continue [3] - It mentions that the Federal Reserve's financial report identifies global trade wars and policy uncertainty as major risks to financial stability, contributing to concerns about the value of the US dollar [3] - The article notes that comments from Federal Reserve officials about a potential interest rate cut in June, along with geopolitical instability, provide short-term support for gold prices [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that after the drop from 3500, gold has experienced three consecutive days of significant fluctuations, with clear support and resistance levels identified at 3385 and 3260 [3] - For trading strategies, the initial support level is set at 3300, with strong support noted between 3260-70, while key resistance is at 3385 [5] - The article suggests that if the price does not continue to rise after 10 AM, a downward trend may occur, particularly if the upper boundary of the daily fluctuation at 3385 is not breached [3][5]

美联储金融稳定报告：全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险 美联储周五公布的最新金融稳定报告显示，全球贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持 续性高居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜首。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年 一次的调查。73%的受访者表示，全球贸易风险是他们最担心的问题，这一比例是11月份报告的两倍 多。半数受访者认为，总体政策不确定性是最令人担忧的问题，这一比例较去年同期有所上升。调查还 发现，与近期市场动荡相关的问题受到了更多关注，27%的受访者担心美国国债市场的运转，高于去年 秋季的17%。外国对美国资产的撤资和美元的价值也在担忧名单上上升。 ...

英国零售业联盟(BRC)周四发布的一项调查显示，美国总统特朗普本月早些时候宣布的关税举措引发的 全球金融市场动荡令英国购物者感到恐慌。BRC表示，4月份消费者对经济状况的信心指数从3月份的负 35降至负48，为至少一年来的最低水平。这项调查基于4月4日至4月7日期间对2000名消费者进行的调 查，此前不久，特朗普宣布加征10%的最低关税，并对美国大多数主要贸易伙伴加征更高的关税，引发 了人们对全球贸易战的担忧。 ...

全球贸易战不断升级 英国企业活动跌至两年多来最疲弱水平 金十数据4月23日讯，周三公布的调查显示，在全球贸易战不断升级的压力下，英国企业陷入困境，这 场贸易战可能使英国经济陷入新的衰退。英国4月服务业PMI从3月份的51.5下滑至4月份的48.2，是自 2022年11月以来的最低水平。出口订单以2020年新冠疫情爆发初期以来的最快速度下降，而随着就业税 的提高和最低工资的提高，企业成本以两年多来最快的速度增长。标普全球首席商业经济学家威廉姆森 说，数据显示英国经济目前正以0.3%左右的季度速度收缩，" 4月信心崩溃和产出下降，对近期经济前 景发出了危险信号，并增加了英国央行在5月会议上再次降息的压力。" ...

过去买黄金要跑金铺，如今手机一点就能玩转黄金期货、ETF、现货甚至黄金股票等。在各大社交媒体上，跟风博主们随便说几个"美联储降息"、"地缘政 治风险"、"特朗普骚操作"就能引发跟风买盘。 "黄金一天涨跌5%，比炒股还刺激！" | | 沪金主连 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | au99999 | | 高 784.28 | | 828.74 振幅 5.56% 量 1: | | | | 783.06 昨结 821.66 持仓 | | -37.38 -4.55% F | | 820.58 今结 810.22 日增 | | 相关ETF ? | | 黄金ETF基金 7.490 -5 | | 同在腹 | | 异动解读:特朗普对华态度缓和。美国总 … | | 部席 | | | | 分时 日K | | 用周K 7月K 2020-0 更多▼ | | 均价:810.25 最新:784.28 -37.38 -4.55% | | | | 860.26 | | +4.70% 卖价 784.3( | | | | 784.21 买价 | | | | 时间 价格 | | | | 14:59 784.44 多平 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Kimberly-Clark Corp. has lowered its profit expectations for the year due to the impact of global trade tensions on its costs, leading to uncertainty in its financial outlook [1] Financial Performance - The company now anticipates that its adjusted operating profit for 2025 will be flat or show slight growth, a revision from the earlier forecast of high single-digit growth made in January [1] - CEO Mike Hsu indicated that the current environment will result in higher costs for the global supply chain than previously expected at the beginning of the year [1] Management Outlook - Despite the challenges, the CEO expressed confidence that the company can offset these costs over time, which would help improve profitability [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Monday's freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends, with the main contract closing down 2.12% and far - month contracts down between 1 - 3%. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war dampens foreign trade demand and restricts freight rates. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index is 1508.44, up 106.09 points from last week, a 7.6% week - on - week increase. The panic - hedging sentiment caused by Sino - US tariff hikes may dominate the market in the short term, increasing the volatility of the freight index (European line) futures. In the medium to long term, it depends on global economic resilience and the export substitution effect. If Sino - European trade volume increases or the US tariff rate on Europe is better than expected, far - month futures prices may perform better than near - month contracts. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and closely monitor US policies towards Europe and Sino - European foreign trade data [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The EC main contract closed at 1522.000, down 33.0; the EC sub - main contract closed at 1712.8, up 44.10. The EC2506 - EC2508 spread was - 190.80, down 70.00; the EC2506 - EC2510 spread was 210.90, down 22.40. The EC contract basis was - 13.56, up 117.09. The main contract's open interest was 37752 lots, down 37 [1]. - **Spot Indices**: SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1508.44, up 106.09; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1368.41, down 219.43. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1370.58, down 24.10. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1110.94, up 3.66; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1486.14, down 9.31. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1261.00, down 20.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1273.00, down 35.00 [1]. - **Charter Rates**: The average charter price for Panamax ships was 11777.00, up 119.00; for Cape - size ships was 12059.00, down 218.00 [1]. Industry News - The US Trade Representative's Office announced the final measures of the 301 investigation into China's logistics, maritime and shipbuilding sectors. China's Ministry of Commerce and industry associations urged the US to correct its wrong practices, stating that the US measures are unilateral, protectionist, discriminatory, and violate WTO rules [1]. - A German economic research institute's report shows that in the next four years, US "reciprocal tariff" measures may cause Germany to lose 290 billion euros and the EU to lose 1.1 trillion euros, bringing global trade war risks and negative impacts on the global economy [1].