Core Viewpoint - After being removed from the Hong Kong Stock Connect list in March, the stock price of Kedi-B (02487) experienced significant volatility, initially dropping to a low of HKD 3.64 but later rebounding by 250% due to strong financial results and market conditions [1][4][10]. Financial Performance - Kedi reported a total revenue increase of approximately 103% year-on-year for the fiscal year 2024, with gross profit rising by about 102% [4]. - The net loss for the period narrowed by 77.91% compared to the previous year, attributed to increased sales of hair loss and skincare products, as well as cost-cutting measures [4][12]. - The company’s half-year report for 2023 showed a revenue decrease of 30.6% to approximately HKD 66.3 million, with a net loss of about HKD 239 million, reflecting challenges due to strategic changes in partnerships [11][12]. Stock Price Movement - Following the announcement of its annual report on April 22, Kedi's stock price rebounded significantly, reaching a peak of HKD 7.62 on May 20, recovering all losses incurred after being removed from the Stock Connect [4][5]. - The stock price saw a decline from a high of HKD 12 to a low of HKD 5.87, marking a maximum drop of 51.08% over two months [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The stock's performance was influenced by the overall recovery of the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector and the company's solid financial fundamentals [4][11]. - The liquidity issues stemming from the removal from the Stock Connect were exacerbated by the stock's volatility, with a significant reduction in the proportion of holdings by Stock Connect investors from 10.09% to 4.10% between March and June [5][7]. Future Prospects - Kedi plans to issue 28.9 million shares at a price of HKD 8.40 each to raise approximately HKD 240 million, with 45% of the proceeds allocated for the marketing and development of new products CU-40102 and CU-10201 [12]. - Market forecasts suggest that CU-40102 could achieve first-year revenues exceeding HKD 100 million, with peak sales potential estimated between HKD 1 billion and HKD 2 billion, while CU-10201 is projected to generate around HKD 50 million in its first year [12].

Core Viewpoint - The 76th AASLD conference showcased significant advancements in China's innovative drug sector, particularly in hepatitis B treatment, indicating a positive outlook for the industry moving forward [1][4][5]. Group 1: Performance of Chinese Innovative Drug Companies - Chinese research teams made notable contributions at the AASLD 2025 conference, presenting findings on hepatitis B and other liver diseases, with several experts receiving prestigious awards [4]. - Breakthrough drugs and clinical data were highlighted, including HepaPrax combined with interferon achieving "sterilizing cure" for hepatitis B, and AHB-137 showing a 39% sustained clearance rate post-treatment [4][5]. Group 2: Future Outlook for the Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from several positive industry trends, including a sustained "going global" momentum, with overseas licensing deals reaching $104.2 billion and upfront payments totaling $8.1 billion by October 2025 [8]. - The pharmaceutical sector reported a net profit of 40.51 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 7.67% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued growth in innovative drug commercialization and overseas deals [8]. - Ongoing policy support is anticipated, with upcoming insurance negotiations expected to enhance the accessibility and affordability of high-priced innovative drugs [8]. - The innovative drug sector has experienced a three-month adjustment period, which is viewed as healthy, with expectations for a new round of growth as market dynamics shift [8].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the rapid development of China's innovative pharmaceuticals, highlighting that the number of clinical trials has reached a global leading position, with a significant increase in new drug approvals [3][5][7] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are transitioning from a "fast follower" to an "innovation leader" model, actively engaging in cutting-edge fields such as ADC, bispecific antibodies, and mRNA vaccines, with a notable increase in the number of products in late-stage development [8][11][18] - The report identifies two main investment directions: the transformation of biotech companies into biopharma and the revaluation of traditional pharmaceutical companies during their innovation transition, suggesting specific companies to watch in both categories [3][4] Group 2 - China's integration into the global innovative drug value chain is deepening, with a growing number of global multi-center clinical trials led by Chinese companies, indicating a shift in the global drug development landscape [3][24] - The report notes that the contribution of Chinese companies to global clinical trials has significantly increased, with a projection of 1,903 innovative drug clinical trials registered in China by 2024 [7][24] - The report highlights the increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies in high-potential therapeutic areas, particularly in oncology, metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases, with substantial market shares in these segments [18][19] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising trend of BD (business development) transactions involving Chinese assets, with a notable increase in transaction amounts and numbers, indicating China's growing influence in the global pharmaceutical innovation landscape [33][44] - It highlights that the majority of license-out projects are now in early stages, reflecting the international interest in early-stage Chinese innovations, particularly in oncology and metabolic therapies [39][44] - The report points out that major multinational corporations (MNCs) are increasingly seeking next-generation blockbuster products from China to fill revenue gaps due to impending patent expirations [62][66]

Core Insights - The innovative drug sector has gained market attention since May due to dual drivers of policy and industry, with the completion of the 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug Directory negotiations and the introduction of the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory opening new payment pathways for high-priced innovative drugs [1] - The shift in China's innovative drug export model from "license-out" to "global MNC-led development" is prompting a deeper focus on clinical validation and global collaboration rather than just business development expectations [1] - The innovative drug sector experienced its first mid-term correction in October, attributed to previous rapid gains and a shift of active funds to other sectors, but signs of capital return were noted towards the end of October [1][2] Market Performance - Approximately 90% of actively managed pharmaceutical funds are concentrated in the innovative drug and CXO sectors, indicating a significant compression of allocations to other pharmaceutical sub-sectors [2] - From September to mid-October, the AI-related sector saw a 30% increase, while the innovative drug sector declined over 20%, widening the performance gap to 50-60 percentage points [2] - With the end of the third-quarter report disclosures and the arrival of an earnings vacuum period, the innovative drug sector is expected to regain attention due to its high industry prosperity [2] Future Drivers - The current innovative drug market is primarily driven by capital rather than short-term fundamentals, with a strong industry performance in October not translating into stock price increases due to reduced capital [3] - Long-term fundamentals and industry trends remain the core support for the sector, with a 20% correction from September highs indicating that valuations are now at relatively cheap levels [3] - The next few years are expected to see more significant licensing transactions between Chinese companies and multinational pharmaceutical companies, with increased international market validation of products [3] Sector Focus - The innovative drug sector can be categorized into four main therapeutic areas: oncology, metabolic diseases, autoimmune diseases, and neurological and cardiovascular diseases, with oncology currently leading in licensing transactions [6][7] - The metabolic field, particularly weight loss drugs, is highlighted as a significant market, while autoimmune diseases represent a strong commercial model for chronic conditions [7] - The neurological and cardiovascular sectors are emerging as important innovative directions, particularly for aging-related chronic diseases [7] Investment Considerations - The medical device sector is viewed as a good long-term investment, requiring companies to establish overseas channels independently, unlike the innovative drug sector which can leverage multinational partnerships for quicker international expansion [8] - The Chinese traditional medicine industry is expected to face increased market competition post-2024, following a period of special policy protection, which may test its resilience [9] - AI in healthcare is seen as a promising area, with potential applications in medical devices leading the way, although direct consumer applications may take longer to develop [10][11] Market Dynamics - The differences between A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in terms of liquidity and investment characteristics have diminished, with both markets currently exhibiting strong liquidity [12] - Key factors for future investment strategies include valuation levels, industry trends, and overall market conditions, with current valuations in the innovative drug sector considered relatively cheap [12][13] - The industry trend is strong, but historical patterns suggest that market performance may outpace actual developments, leading to potential bubble risks [13]

Group 1 - The recent tensions between China and Japan may impact foreign investment sentiment, as the Chinese government has advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan and is prepared for substantial countermeasures [1] - The U.S. government has resumed operations, with the non-farm payroll report set to be released on November 20, which could influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The European Union has agreed to eliminate the tax exemption on small packages, primarily targeting the influx of inexpensive Chinese goods [1] Group 2 - The company Guosheng Tang (02273) plans to acquire 100% of Dazhong Tang, expanding its network of Traditional Chinese Medicine clinics in Singapore, which is expected to enhance its overseas market presence [3] - Guosheng Tang has also announced a share buyback plan totaling up to 600 million HKD, aimed at increasing shareholder value [3] - The company has expanded its domestic operations by adding four new branches in cities such as Tianjin and Chengdu, bringing the total number of branches to 87 [3] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector has seen a rebound after two months of decline, with companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics reporting positive financial results, indicating a potential for sustained market momentum [4][5] - BeiGene reported a profit of 125 million USD for the first three quarters, with projections of 795 million USD profit by 2026, while Innovent Biologics anticipates reaching breakeven by 2025 [4] - Upcoming academic conferences in December are expected to showcase domestic innovative drugs, further boosting investor interest in the sector [5] Group 4 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a decline, with the Hang Seng Index at 26,572 points, amid concerns over excessive investment in AI and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [6] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market is closely tied to U.S. dollar liquidity, with expectations of a shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of November 16, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing varied price cycles for raw materials, with certain products like Amoxicillin and 6-APA benefiting from stable supply and increased demand, leading to a prosperous period from 2023 to 2024. Vitamin E is also expected to see a high demand year in 2024 due to an incident at BASF [2]. - The high-value consumables market is showing growth in segments such as vascular intervention and neurosurgery, while orthopedic implants are facing a decline overall. However, specific areas like spinal and joint implants are growing, indicating a recovery in the industry post-tender clearing [3]. - The flu positivity rate has surged, leading to increased attention on flu medications and testing, with new flu drugs receiving approval from the National Medical Products Administration [4]. - The pace of innovation and overseas expansion in the pharmaceutical sector is recovering, with a significant increase in licensing deals and total transaction amounts in 2025 compared to previous years [5]. - The competitive landscape in the weight loss market is intensifying, with major companies like Novo Nordisk and Pfizer engaging in acquisition battles, highlighting the market's attractiveness [6]. - The research services and Contract Research Organization (CRO) sectors are leading the recovery in the pharmaceutical industry, with significant profit growth reported in these areas [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index recently, with a weekly increase of 3.29% [22]. 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical industry index has a current PE (TTM) of 39.36, above the five-year historical average of 31.22 [48]. 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report highlights various research achievements, including the growth of innovative drugs and the positive outlook for the blood products industry [50]. 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies from the National Medical Insurance Administration focus on intelligent auditing and regulation of excessive prescriptions, aiming to safeguard fund security and patient rights [52].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the innovative drug market is expected to drive continuous valuation recovery in the pharmaceutical sector, supported by improving fundamentals and overseas expansion catalysts [2][7][10] - The pharmaceutical sector's overall performance shows a slight revenue growth of 0.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 12.87% [4][3] - The report highlights that the revenue of domestic biotech innovative drug companies reached 52.13 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 14% year-on-year increase, indicating that commercialization is entering a rapid growth phase [21][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the total overseas licensing business development (BD) transaction amount in the innovative drug sector exceeded 100 billion USD in 2025, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [27][30][33] - The report emphasizes that the innovative drug sector's valuation remains at a historically low level, with the median PE ratio for the pharmaceutical sector at 34.21 times, suggesting potential for further recovery [10][57] - Institutional enthusiasm for the biotech innovative drug sector is reflected in the increasing proportion of holdings, with the weight of all funds in the biotech sector rising to 2.66% in Q3 2025 [11][35][38] Group 3 - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Sanofi Biopharma, which has licensed a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody to Pfizer, indicating high certainty for future overseas sales growth [63] - The report also highlights the potential of Union Pharmaceuticals' UBT251, which has shown promising results in weight loss and is licensed to Novo Nordisk [63] - The report suggests that Kolon Biotech's TROP2 ADC, licensed to Merck, has demonstrated excellent data and is expected to have significant market potential [63]

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector is expected to perform well in 2025, driven by overseas expansion expectations and rapid sales growth. The sector has shown significant excess returns in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to continuous business development (BD) overseas, excellent clinical data, and policy support. The sector is in a rapid sales growth phase, with several major products approved and included in medical insurance, leading to a surge in domestic sales and overseas revenue growth [5][6][56] - Chinese innovative drugs are demonstrating global competitiveness, with a significant increase in the number and value of outbound licensing deals. The proportion of Chinese assets in multinational corporation (MNC) drug transactions rose from approximately 5% in 2020-2021 to over 15% in the first three quarters of 2025. The total transaction amount for Chinese assets reached $47.6 billion, accounting for about 25% of MNC transactions [5][6][64] - After BD, attention should be focused on global clinical advancements and key data readouts. Since 2023, more Chinese assets have entered global registration clinical phases, with several expected to report phase III clinical data starting in 2026, potentially giving them a competitive edge through superior clinical data [5][6][64] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector's revenue has rapidly increased, with a reported revenue of 48.83 billion yuan (+22.1%) and a net profit of -460 million yuan (+71.4%) in the first three quarters of 2025. The third quarter alone saw revenues of 19.21 billion yuan (+51.0%) and a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan (+147.1%) [5][56] - The rapid growth in commercial sales of innovative drug products is attributed to the continued release of major products, medical insurance coverage, and the expansion of new indications. Additionally, overseas sales have become a key driver of revenue growth, alongside milestone payments from licensing agreements [5][56] - The investment recommendation highlights companies with differentiated innovation capabilities, suggesting a focus on Keren Biotechnology, Kangfang Biologics, Sanofi Pharmaceutical, Yingen Biotech, and Zai Lab [5][6]

Core Insights - Bayer's Yizhuang Open Innovation Center officially launched in Beijing on November 15, 2023, focusing on integrating industry, education, research, and entrepreneurship to connect "Chinese innovation" with "global wisdom" [1] Group 1: Innovation Center Overview - The Yizhuang Open Innovation Center is located in the International Pharmaceutical Innovation Park (BioPark) and is Bayer's first innovation center in China [1] - The center aims to incubate local innovative pharmaceutical companies and support the internationalization of domestic innovative drugs, enhancing the entire chain of Chinese innovation [1] Group 2: Collaboration and Partnerships - The center will collaborate with high-level research and clinical institutions to improve basic research and clinical translation capabilities, facilitating data-driven digital business innovation [1] - As the first outcome of this innovation system, Bayer Co.Lab welcomed its first resident companies, Puhe Pharmaceutical and Yaojing Gene, at the Yizhuang Open Innovation Center [1] Group 3: Events and Activities - On the same day, the "China-Europe Sci-Tech Innovation Community Theme Day Series Activities and the 2025 Fourth China-Europe Life Sciences and Pharmaceutical Innovation Exchange Activities" were held at the newly launched Bayer Yizhuang Open Innovation Center [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the focus on innovative drugs and the opportunities within the pharmaceutical industry chain, indicating a positive outlook for the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector by 2026 [1][3] - Multiple policies are supporting the development of the innovative drug industry, with record highs in both transaction amounts and numbers for domestic innovative drugs going overseas [3][6] - The report notes a rebound in valuations for the sector, with leading companies achieving profitability through increased commercialization and licensing revenues [3][6] Group 2 - Key companies such as BeiGene and Innovent Biologics are experiencing significant sales growth, with BeiGene's global sales exceeding $1 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 51% year-on-year increase [3][4] - Innovent Biologics is expanding its pipeline and is expected to achieve positive non-IFRS net profit and EBITDA in 2024, with continued growth projected for 2025 [3][4] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the CXO sector, driven by a recovery in investment and demand for early-stage research, particularly in emerging fields like peptides and ADCs [3][6] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation for key companies, indicating significant revenue growth for companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, with projected revenues of $5.1 billion and $2.7 billion respectively for 2025 [4][6] - The pharmaceutical sector is noted for its robust performance, with companies like Sihuan Pharmaceutical and Hengrui Medicine showing strong revenue contributions from innovative products [4][6] - The report also highlights the increasing competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs on a global scale, with successful international collaborations and licensing agreements [3][6] Group 4 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong pharmaceutical market has shown impressive performance year-to-date, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index significantly outperforming other markets, achieving an approximate 82% increase [15][16] - Valuations for Hong Kong pharmaceuticals are noted to be lower than those in A-shares and overseas markets, with a median PE of 17x for 2025 [15][16] - The report mentions a notable increase in the number of IPOs in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector, with over 20 new companies listed in 2025, raising substantial capital [40][41]