中国基金报记者 格林 10 月 21 日，港股继续强势上攻。恒生指数收涨 0.65% ，报 26027.55 点；恒生科技指数收涨 1.26% ，报 6007.94 点；恒生中国企 业指数收涨 0.76% ，报 9302.66 点。全日大市成交额为 2647 亿港元，较前一交易日略有回升。南向资金净流入 11.71 亿港元。 【导读】 2025 年前 9 个月，中国香港 ETP 日均成交额排名全球第三 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | HSI | 恒生指数 | 26027.55c | 168.72 | 0.65% | 2647亿 | 29.75% | | 2 | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | 6007.94c | 74.77 | 1.26% | 755亿 | 34.46% | | 3 | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 16057.66c | 63.23 | 0.40% | 116亿 | 86.25% | | 4 | HSCEI | 恒生 ...

Core Insights - The company's main revenue source is compressor products, while vacuum products are experiencing short-term revenue decline due to the photovoltaic industry's oversupply [1] - The company focuses on two core segments: compressors and vacuum pumps, with compressors further divided into refrigeration and air compression series [1] - The refrigeration product matrix is extensive, and data center construction is expected to drive refrigeration demand [1] - The company has established a partnership with important clients like Dongyuan Electric, which is expanding into the AI business, potentially benefiting the company as a major supplier of compressors [2] - The air compression products are essential for various industries, with a strategic focus on oil-free compressors for high-purity applications [2] - The vacuum products are primarily used in the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, with potential growth in other sectors like lithium batteries and pharmaceuticals [3] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit from 7.14 billion to 9.34 billion from 2025 to 2027, with a "recommended" rating [4] Segment Summaries Compressor Products - Compressor products generated revenue of 1.077 billion with a growth of 12.21% in the first half of 2025 [1] - The refrigeration segment includes commercial central air conditioning compressors, frozen and refrigerated compressors, and heat pump compressors [1] - The company’s compressors are increasingly used in data centers, with growth in screw and magnetic levitation centrifugal compressors expected in 2025 [1] Vacuum Products - Vacuum product revenue was 276 million, showing a decline of 60.12% due to the oversupply in the photovoltaic sector [1] - The company is expanding its vacuum product applications into semiconductors and other industries, with initial supply agreements with domestic chip manufacturers [3] - The semiconductor industry’s growth is expected to drive future demand for vacuum products [3] Air Compression Products - Air compression products are critical for various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and electronics, with a focus on expanding oil-free compressor applications [2] - The company is actively developing oil-free compressors, which are essential for industries requiring high air quality [2]

Market Overview - On October 21, the A-share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering the 3900-point mark, closing up 1.36% at 3916.33 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.06% to 13077.32 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3.02% to 3083.72 points [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of over 140 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The AI computing power sector saw strong gains, with the Wind光模块 (CPO) index rising over 6% and the光芯片 index increasing nearly 5% [1][2] - The Apple supply chain strengthened due to a rise in Apple’s stock price, with companies like闻泰科技 and环旭电子 hitting the daily limit, and工业富联 rising by 9.57% [1] - Conversely, the Wind coal mining and lithium battery electrolyte indices fell by 1.30% and 1.59%, respectively [1][2] AI Sector Insights - The AI sector is experiencing a surge due to multiple favorable factors, including significant investments from global tech giants and supportive domestic policies [4] - The domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate has surpassed 45%, and AI computing infrastructure is receiving special bond support, accelerating the formation of an industrial ecosystem [4] - Institutions predict that AI inference demand will rise to 80% by 2030, driven by the explosion of intelligent applications [4] Market Volatility - Recent volatility in the computing power sector has been attributed to external negative news and profit-taking by investors [5] - The rapid switching of funds in the market reflects investors' high expectations and uncertainties regarding the future of artificial intelligence [5] Future Market Trends - There is a divergence of opinions among institutions regarding potential style shifts in the A-share market for the fourth quarter [6] - Some believe that a significant style shift is unlikely, while others anticipate a rotation between growth and value styles [6][7] - The market is expected to experience a stepwise upward trend, with a focus on low-valuation sectors and the sustainability of high-valuation sectors [8] Investment Strategies - Institutions suggest focusing on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, energy storage, and controlled nuclear fusion for long-term investments [9] - Short-term strategies should prioritize stocks with strong earnings, while value sectors like brokerage, insurance, and financial IT are expected to see improvements in valuation and performance [9][10] - The market is transitioning from liquidity-driven to profit-driven dynamics, emphasizing the importance of selecting high-quality assets with real orders and cash flow improvements [9]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement between Silan Microelectronics and the Xiamen government marks a significant investment in the semiconductor industry, with a total investment of 20 billion yuan to establish a 12-inch high-end analog integrated circuit chip manufacturing line, aimed at addressing the domestic shortage of key chips in various sectors [2][4]. Investment Details - The project will be executed in two phases, with the first phase involving an investment of 10 billion yuan, expected to commence by the end of 2025 and achieve production by the fourth quarter of 2027, ultimately reaching an annual production capacity of 240,000 chips [2][5]. - The second phase will also involve an additional investment of 10 billion yuan, increasing the monthly production capacity to 45,000 chips and an annual capacity of 540,000 chips [2][5]. Market Context - The domestic market for high-end analog chips currently has a low localization rate, heavily relying on imports, indicating significant growth potential for domestic production [2][4]. - The project is expected to alleviate supply pressure on core components in emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, AI, and industrial robotics, thereby promoting the localization process [4][6]. Financial Structure - The funding for the first phase includes 6.01 billion yuan in capital, with Xiamen state-owned assets contributing 3.6 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% of the total [3]. - Silan Microelectronics and its subsidiaries will contribute 1.5 billion yuan, with the remaining funds to be supplemented by future investors, supported by a special loan from the National Development Bank [3]. Industry Impact - The establishment of the production line is anticipated to create a significant industrial chain effect, attracting upstream and downstream enterprises to Xiamen and fostering a complete high-end chip industry ecosystem [3][4]. - Silan Microelectronics plans to leverage its expertise in technology and talent management to support the industry chain and enhance Xiamen's semiconductor innovation development [4][6]. Previous Collaborations - Silan Microelectronics has a history of collaboration with the Xiamen government, having previously signed an agreement to build an 8-inch SiC power device chip manufacturing line, which is also progressing towards production [6].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of share reduction by senior executives of Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical (300316.SZ) indicates potential concerns regarding the company's financial health, as the executives cite personal funding needs as the reason for their decision [2][3]. Executive Share Reduction - Five senior executives plan to reduce their holdings by a total of up to 2,776,203 shares, representing 0.21% of the total share capital, within three months starting from November 8, 2025 [2]. - The executives involved include Zhu Liang, Fu Linjian, Zhang Jun, Lu Xiaowen, and Shi Gang, with the total cashing out estimated at approximately 105 million yuan based on the current share price of 37.71 yuan [2]. Company Background - Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical was established in 2006 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2012, focusing on semiconductor equipment and materials, including photovoltaic equipment and substrates [4]. - The company has maintained profitability since its listing but has recently faced revenue and net profit declines due to changes in the photovoltaic market [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 17.577 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.51 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 2.26% and 44.93%, respectively [4]. - For the first half of 2025, revenues were 5.799 billion yuan and net profits were 639 million yuan, showing significant declines of 42.85% and 69.52% year-on-year [4]. Market Challenges - The company attributed its 2024 performance decline to changes in customer financial conditions and payment schedules, leading to provisions for bad debts totaling 250 million yuan [5]. - Additionally, inventory write-downs of 341 million yuan and 349 million yuan were made due to price drops in photovoltaic quartz crucibles and raw materials [6]. Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, affecting multiple companies, including Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical, which has seen a decline in both revenue and profit [6]. - The company has noted risks associated with order fulfillment amid the cyclical adjustments in the photovoltaic sector [6]. Semiconductor Equipment Development - Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical is expanding its semiconductor equipment offerings, achieving domestic production of 8-12 inch silicon wafer equipment and focusing on third-generation semiconductor equipment [7]. - The company has significant contracts in the semiconductor sector, with over 3.7 billion yuan in unfulfilled contracts as of June 30, 2025 [7]. Technological Advancements - The company has successfully launched its first 12-inch silicon carbide substrate processing pilot line, marking a significant step in its technological capabilities [8]. - Collaboration with semiconductor firms, such as Xin Kailai, has garnered attention, indicating strategic partnerships in the precision components sector [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to increase the production capacity of quartz electronic fabric, which is expected to enhance China's competitiveness in the high-end PCB materials sector [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Production Plans - The company intends to invest 624 million yuan in the first phase of the quartz electronic fabric intelligent manufacturing project, with 300 million yuan raised through a private placement and the remainder funded through self-raised capital [2]. - The project aims to expand the existing production and R&D capabilities of quartz electronic fabric to meet market demand, as the overall production capacity of quartz electronic fabric is currently limited [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The demand for quartz electronic fabric is anticipated to grow rapidly due to the upgrade trend in Ethernet switch chips, exemplified by Broadcom's launch of the Tomahawk 6-Davisson chip, which achieves a bandwidth capacity of 102.4 Tbps [3]. - As the performance of mainstream switches continues to improve, the requirements for PCB materials, including expansion coefficients and dielectric properties, will also increase, driving demand for quartz electronic fabric [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company is actively developing high-end optical synthetic quartz material technology, positioning itself as one of the few domestic manufacturers engaged in the R&D and production of synthetic quartz glass [4]. - The company's high-end optical synthetic quartz materials have been utilized in several key national projects, indicating its leading position in large-scale synthetic quartz glass manufacturing technology [4]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to have EPS of 1.16, 1.98, and 2.54 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - As of October 16, 2025, the company's total market capitalization is approximately 37.3 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 61.4, 36.1, and 28.2 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Expo marks a critical transition from "single-point breakthroughs" to "ecological collaboration" in China's semiconductor localization efforts, leveraging the advantages of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to create an ecological closed loop [1][14] - Shenzhen is driving semiconductor localization through a "finance + ecology" dual engine, focusing on capital empowerment, ecological collaboration, and policy support to strengthen the semiconductor industry [2][15] - Domestic software breakthroughs in databases and operating systems are addressing critical bottlenecks, with products like SUNDB and the n-TOS+CTOS system achieving significant milestones in localization [3][6][52][53] Summary by Sections 1. Bay Area Leadership and Full-Chain Efforts - The Bay Area Semiconductor Expo 2025 showcases over 600 semiconductor companies and emphasizes core technology breakthroughs, including the introduction of a 90GHz oscilloscope and EDA software that fills high-end gaps [1][19][20] - The expo facilitates supply-demand connections across the "R&D - mass production" chain, enhancing China's global influence in semiconductor standards [1][27] 2. Shenzhen's Dual-Engine Approach - Shenzhen's semiconductor industry is evolving through a multi-dimensional collaboration model, with a focus on a 5 billion yuan fund targeting weak links in the industry chain [2][15][28] - The "six ones" mechanism integrates resources and forms an industry alliance of over a thousand companies, enhancing collaboration and reducing R&D costs for SMEs [2][15][32] 3. Software Autonomy - The tightening of U.S. software controls has inadvertently created opportunities for domestic software companies, with SUNDB achieving a 98.31% self-research rate and the n-TOS+CTOS system achieving full localization [6][52][53] - These developments signify a shift from pilot replacements to substantial performance improvements in domestic software, ensuring safety and controllability [6][52] 4. Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks in the semiconductor sector include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, SMIC, and Huahong Semiconductor [7][17] - In the chip sector, recommended companies include Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Longxin Zhongke [7][17] - Storage companies such as Demingli and Kaipu Cloud are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7][17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent share reduction by multiple executives at Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical (晶盛机电) raises concerns about the company's internal dynamics and future performance, especially as it navigates its transition into the semiconductor industry [2][5]. Executive Share Reduction - On October 17, Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical announced that five executives, including Vice President Zhu Liang, plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2.776 million shares, representing 0.21% of the total share capital excluding repurchased shares [2][4]. - The total estimated cash from this share reduction is approximately 113 million yuan, with Zhu Liang expected to cash out around 43.88 million yuan [4]. Reasons for Share Reduction - The company stated that the share reduction is primarily due to the executives' personal financial needs, as they have not sold shares since 2019 and have participated in two stock incentive programs [5]. - The shares being sold are mainly from stock incentives, except for Zhu Liang's shares, which are from the company's initial public offering [5]. Company Performance and Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the company's stock price fell by 7.62%, closing at 37.71 yuan per share, resulting in a market capitalization of 49.4 billion yuan, with a loss of nearly 13 billion yuan from its peak on October 9 [5]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, with revenue down 42.85% to 5.799 billion yuan and net profit down 69.52% to 639 million yuan, attributed to the cyclical downturn in the photovoltaic industry [7]. Semiconductor Business Development - Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical has been expanding into the semiconductor sector, with products including semiconductor equipment and materials, and has achieved domestic production of 8-12 inch silicon wafer equipment [6]. - The company has a significant order backlog in integrated circuit and compound semiconductor equipment contracts exceeding 3.7 billion yuan, although the execution of these orders is expected to take time [7]. Investment in Other Companies - The company confirmed that its controlling shareholder indirectly holds shares in Moole Technology through an investment fund, but denied any direct or indirect investment in Moole Technology itself [8].

Core Insights - The 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Ecological Expo showcased significant technological breakthroughs in core equipment and key components, highlighting the path towards the localization of the semiconductor equipment industry in China [1] - The collaboration among various products and companies indicates a shift from isolated efforts to a comprehensive approach in achieving domestic substitution across the entire semiconductor supply chain [1] Equipment and Technology - Several core devices from companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board demonstrated industrialization achievements, such as the wafer-to-wafer hybrid bonding equipment from Tuojing Technology, which has already been delivered in bulk to advanced storage and logic chip production lines [1] - Huahai Qingke exhibited multiple high-performance equipment products that meet advanced process requirements, with applications in AI chips and HBM stacked packaging [1] - The introduction of a one-stop gas demand solution and core products like gas distribution plates by Fuchuang Precision highlights the acceleration of domestic component and supporting equipment localization [3] Market Position and Competition - Companies like Zhongke Feicai and Xinyuan Micro, in collaboration with Northern Huachuang, showcased competitive products such as 12-inch etching machines and coating development equipment, directly competing with international giants [2] - Shengmei Shanghai presented innovative equipment for advanced packaging, including the world's first horizontal plating equipment, which supports the transition from wafer-level to panel-level packaging for AI chips [2] Industry Growth and Development - The total shipment volume of equipment from Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies exceeded 16,000 units in 2024, with an average R&D investment intensity of 16.3% in the first half of 2025, surpassing the median levels of the sector and A-shares [3] - The number of patents accumulated by these companies exceeded 4,000 by the end of June, indicating a strong focus on innovation and technology development [3] - Industry experts noted that with national and industrial policy support, semiconductor equipment companies have accelerated technological breakthroughs and scale deliveries, positioning themselves as the main force in domestic semiconductor production [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has seen a significant increase in its order backlog, reaching 9.072 billion yuan as of September 29, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.10% [1]. - The semiconductor equipment demand in China remains strong, and the company is leveraging its technological advantages and market recognition to expand its market presence [1]. - The company successfully raised 4.482 billion yuan through a private placement of shares, which will primarily be used for R&D projects and working capital [2]. Summary by Sections Company Orders and Financials - As of September 29, 2025, the company's order backlog is 9.072 billion yuan, a 34.10% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company reported a net profit forecast of 1.476 billion yuan for 2025, with projections of 1.829 billion yuan for 2026 and 2.285 billion yuan for 2027 [3]. Product Development and Market Position - The company emphasizes product R&D, with new products contributing to continuous order growth [2]. - The successful validation of the self-developed high-temperature SPM equipment in March 2025 is expected to add significant value to next-generation semiconductor device manufacturing [2]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 6.984 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.33% [4]. - The company is projected to maintain a P/E ratio of 59x for 2025, decreasing to 38x by 2027 [3][4].