Core Viewpoint - The Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson expresses greater concern over the labor market's potential deterioration than inflation risks, anticipating a cooling of inflation next year [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Paulson describes the labor market as "bent but not broken," indicating a significant increase in downside risks, with broader hiring activities remaining weak [2]. - Recent rate cuts totaling 75 basis points have provided some insurance against further deterioration in the labor market [2]. - The current federal funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75% is still considered restrictive, which, along with previous tightening effects, should help bring inflation back to the 2% target [1][3]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Paulson is relatively optimistic about inflation, suggesting a significant likelihood of a decline next year, primarily due to the expected waning impact of tariffs on goods prices [3]. - She emphasizes that the current interest rate levels and the cumulative effects of previous tightening policies should assist in achieving the inflation target [3]. Group 3: Decision-Making and Data Dependency - Paulson will gain voting rights on the FOMC in 2026 and anticipates more information by the end of January, which will clarify inflation and employment outlooks [4]. - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting a balance between employment market risks and elevated inflation levels [4]. - The meeting saw three dissenting votes, highlighting deep divisions within the committee regarding policy direction [4]. Group 4: Economic Factors and Credibility - Paulson stresses the importance of the Fed's credibility when assessing the economic impacts of factors like tariffs and artificial intelligence [5]. - She notes that if the economy experiences high growth driven by AI, the policy response would differ from scenarios where high inflation risks coexist [5].

据报道，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周五表示，他反对美联储最近一次25个基点的降息决定，认为在进一 步降息之前，应等待更多关于通胀和就业市场的数据，尤其是在企业和消费者仍高度担忧物价上涨的背 景下。他还表示，若未来数据显示通胀正回归美联储2%的目标，他仍"乐观认为"明年利率"可显著下 调"。费城联储主席保尔森则表示，她当前最关注的是劳动力市场的状况，当前的货币政策立场应有助 于将通胀拉回2%的目标。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

关 注 我 们 获 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 12」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场整体偏强运行。联储降息如期兑现，在全球白银实物库存持续紧缺引起的挤仓以及美 联储降息预期提振下，银价续创历史新高，金价走势较为震荡，金银比继续向历史均值收敛。鲍威尔表示货币政 策没有预设路径，未来将依赖数据逐次会议决策。当前通胀仍高于目标，但非关税因素导致的核心通胀已明显回 落。若无新增关税，商品通胀预计将在2026年第一季度触顶。目前利率已处于中性区间上沿，政策正从限制性向 中性过渡。"美联储传声筒"尼克表示，尽管美联储已连续三次会议决定降息，但其内部对于应更担忧通胀还是 就业市场，存在"不同寻常的分歧"。这种分歧导致官员们暗示，继续降息的意愿目前并不高。整体而言，本次 美联储的降息操作略显鹰派，2026年FOMC或仅展开一次25基点的降息操作，鲍威尔反复强 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, which is seen as a form of "hawkish easing" that impacts the global economy significantly [1][5][9] - The internal debate within the Federal Reserve was intense, with a notable split among members, including a push from some for a 50 basis point cut due to declining employment data in key sectors [5][7] - The reduction in the federal funds rate is expected to ease liquidity issues in the financial system, which has seen a significant contraction of $2.4 trillion since 2022 [7][9] Group 2 - The current economic environment is heavily influenced by AI investments, which rely on low interest rates for financing, thus a rate cut could further boost stock markets [9][11] - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, with former President Trump criticizing the current chair for not being decisive enough in rate cuts [11][13] - The concept of "dollar tides" suggests that when the Fed increases liquidity, it can lead to capital flowing into emerging markets, creating opportunities for growth [13][15] Group 3 - The potential benefits of the Fed's actions include increased investment returns for ordinary investors, as seen in the rising bond market and foreign investment in Chinese government bonds [22][24] - The easing of the yuan's depreciation pressure allows the People's Bank of China more room to implement supportive monetary policies, which could lead to lower financing costs for businesses [24][26] - However, there are risks associated with this influx of capital, including the potential for rapid withdrawal of "hot money" and inflationary pressures from global liquidity [26][28] Group 4 - The historical context of past financial crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 1997 Asian financial crisis, highlights the risks associated with the Fed's monetary policy shifts [18][20] - The current economic landscape requires careful management of personal finances and investment strategies to navigate the potential volatility that may arise from these changes [32][33] - The emphasis on enhancing individual skills and maintaining a balanced perspective on market fluctuations is crucial for long-term financial stability [33][35]

The Federal Reserve just cutting interest rates again by 25 basis points, but the real headline is that chair Jay Powell signaling the Fed may be done for now. Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Taylor Riggs along with my co-host Lydia who Brian Brenberg, Jackie D'Angelus, and with us for the entire hour, Fox Businesses Charlie Gasparino.Great to see you. >> Thanks for having me. >> So, this was the Fed's third straight cut, but it came with division inside the board of governors and the most disscent we've ...

In the Federal Reserve's battle between fighting inflation and limiting unemployment, the latter side carried the day Wednesday and could also have an edge heading into 2026 if labor market weakness becomes more evident through an apparent overcounting of jobs numbers.In the immediate term, worries over the employment situation meant a vote, albeit divided by a 9-3 margin, to lower the central bank's key interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Further down the road, there are indications that policymak ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging a cooling labor market, but internal divisions are evident, with a more hawkish stance than market expectations for 2026 [2][3] - The Philippine economy is weakening, with expectations of two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the policy rate down to 4.00% by the end of 2026 [2] - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0%, with a trade agreement easing pressure for rate cuts, while inflation is anticipated to rise moderately [2][3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley predicts only a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in 2026, significantly lower than the market's expectation of 50 basis points, depending on labor market trends [3] - Allianz Investment Management highlights that the current Federal Reserve chair, Powell, may have executed his last rate cut, with significant progress made in combating inflation, but challenges remain for the next chair [3] - Apollo's CEO states that the U.S. economy does not require further rate cuts, citing structural factors that may elevate long-term inflation risks [3]

新华社纽约12月10日电 题：美联储内部分歧加剧 进一步降息空间有限 新华社记者刘亚南 美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布降息25个基点。这是美联储自9月以来连 续第三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降息。 美联储在货币政策声明中说，在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率的幅度和时间点方面，联邦公开市场委员 会将小心评估新数据、前景展望变化以及总体风险状况。 这一表述曾在2024年12月货币政策声明中出现，美联储此后暂停降息，直至今年9月。市场据此认为， 美联储释放了暂时不会再降息的信号。 鲍威尔当天在记者会上说，自2024年9月开启本轮降息周期以来，联邦基金利率已下调175个基点。他 说："联邦基金利率现在位于宽泛的中性利率估测区间，我们现在处于良好位置，可以等待和观察经济 形势如何发展。" 同时，美联储发布的经济预测摘要显示，美联储官员预测的2025年和2026年联邦基金利率中位数维持在 3.4%和3.1%不变。与当前3.5%至3.75%的利率目标区间相比，美联储明年和后年预计将分别再降息25个 基点。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，截至当日下午6时许，市场认为美联 ...

12月美联储利率决议点阵图 作为美联储政策路径的重要指引，本次公布的点阵图呈现出"中值稳定、分布撕裂"的鲜明特征。从整体中值路径来看，与9月会议 的预测完全一致：2025年底联邦基金利率中值为3.6%、2026年底为3.4%、2027年底为3.1%，长期中性利率预期维持在3.0%。但从 19位美联储官员的具体预测点位分布来看，离散度创下2014年以来的最高水平。 2026年利率路径的预测分歧尤为突出：在19位官员中，7人预测全年不降息（其中4人预计维持不变，3人认为应加息一次）；而在 鸽派一端，出现了点阵图历史上从未有过的极端观点——1位官员认为2026年应累计降息6次，总降幅达到150个基点，与鹰派阵营 的观点形成鲜明对立。此外，在2025年终利率的预测中，有6位官员选择了3.75%-4.00%区间，这一预测区间高于本次会议确定的 3.50%-3.75%利率目标区间，相当于明确暗示"12月本不应进行降息"。 瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle表示，"随着利率接近中性水平，每降息一次，就会失去更多参与者的支持，需要数据激励 这些参与者加入多数派以实现降息。" 近期的数据并未带来过多的鸽派倾向， ...

△美联储（资料图） 经济前景不确定性较高 就业下行风险增加 10日，美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明称，现有指标表明美国经济活动一直以温和 的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水 平。经济前景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的下行风险有所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 △美国劳工部（资料图） 此前，美联储官员就关税政策对通胀的影响以及是否在12月进一步降息存在分歧，但美国就业市场数据 恶化推高了降息预期。 鲍威尔： 当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。 这是美联储继今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 美国关税政策导致通胀过高 美联储主席鲍威尔在10日的新闻发布会上表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一政策立场 的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下 降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导致通胀过高。 △10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就降息决定发 ...