报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：坚持扩大内需，着力推动市场更具韧性 中国公布 10 月经济数据，规模以上工业增加值同比增 4.9%、社会消费品零售同 比增 2.9%、1-10 月固定资产投资同比降 1.7%、房地产开发投资同比降 14.7%； 各线城市房价格环比同比下降，一线二手房价格环比降幅收窄至 0.9%，同比跌 幅扩大。李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进 消费政策措施。财政部：有力有效实施积极的财政政策，坚持扩大内需，支持建 设强大国内市场。吴清：抓紧研究谋划"十五五"时期资本市场战略任务和重大 举措，着力推动市场更具韧性、更加稳健，制度更加包容、更具吸引力。 重点品种：股指、原油、蛋白粕 股指：美国三大指数涨跌不一，上一交易日股指尾盘跳水，综合和房地产行业领 涨，电子通信行业领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 13 日融资 余额增加 40.69 亿元至 24881.55 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科 技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大 权益类资产配置，同时，随着美联 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to expand domestic demand and enhance market resilience in response to China's economic data for October, which shows a 4.9% year-on-year increase in industrial value added and a 2.9% increase in retail sales of consumer goods, while fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% and real estate investment fell by 14.7% [1] - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, is focusing on policies to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods to further stimulate consumption [1] - The Ministry of Finance is committed to implementing an active fiscal policy to support the construction of a strong domestic market [1] Group 2 - In the stock market, the three major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with a market turnover of 1.98 trillion yuan, and financing balance increased by 4.069 billion yuan to 24,881.55 billion yuan [2][10] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" continues to focus on technological self-reliance, with expectations that the technology sector will be a long-term direction for investment [2] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation of equity assets by residents and potential inflow of external funds due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the yuan [2][10] Group 3 - In the oil market, SC futures rose by 1.38% due to a drone attack in Ukraine affecting oil storage facilities, leading to a halt in oil exports from a port that accounts for 2% of global oil supply [3][13] - U.S. refined oil demand averaged 20.606 million barrels per day, down 0.9% year-on-year, while gasoline demand decreased by 2.6% [3][13] - The number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by 3 to 417, but decreased by 61 compared to the same period last year, indicating a continued downward trend [3][13] Group 4 - The domestic second-hand housing transaction area increased by 4.7% year-on-year from January to October, with several cities experiencing over 10% growth [7] - The railway sector saw a record high in passenger volume, with 3.95 billion passengers sent from January to October, marking a 6.4% increase year-on-year [8]

中原消费金融举办各类线下活动，积极提振消费。中原消费金融供图 □张雅露 金融作为实体经济的血脉，在提振消费、释放内需潜力中发挥了关键作用。目前，全国各地将拉动内需作为 推动经济增长的关键抓手，促进形成更多以内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长为主的经济发展模式。 当前，河南正深入贯彻"两高四着力"重大要求，在此背景下，金融服务实体经济的使命愈发重大。为此，必 须深入推动金融机构精准滴灌消费市场与实体经济领域。如今，"金融豫军"正在以实际行动书写一份关乎扩 内需、稳增长、惠民生的时代答卷。 场景融合 金融服务融入生活肌理 作为河南唯一一家持牌消费金融机构，中原消费金融在中原银行党委的坚强领导下，紧扣"大力提振消费"的 政策导向，以"补贴让利+场景融合"双轮驱动，将金融活水精准注入消费市场，让"愿消费、敢消费、能消 费"成为现实。 补贴让利 引燃"双十一"消费热情 今年5月7日，国新办新闻发布会围绕"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"提出多项细化措施，为消费金融行 业发展指明方向。 今年"双十一"消费旺季，中原消费金融将电商节日氛围与"周三礼遇日"IP深度融合，创新推出"双十一狂欢 节"主题活动。活动期间，用户通过完成指定 ...

10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）正式发布。 记者注意到，此次《建议》在投资、消费等领域出现多个新提法。这些新提法背后有怎样的深意？在我国经济迈向"十五五"的 关键节点，如何破解消费率偏低、内需动力不足的深层矛盾？面对复杂严峻的国内外环境，深化改革的突破口究竟在哪里？ 带着这些关乎经济发展全局的核心问题，近日，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）专访了第十四届全国政协委员尹艳 林。 尹艳林深耕宏观经济领域多年，曾长期任职于国家发改委和原中央财经领导小组办公室，曾对中国经济体制改革、供需结构调 整等议题有着深刻洞察和独到见解。 他直言不讳当前面临的一些问题背后是深层次的体制问题，坦言当前改革进入深水区的特征更加明显。他对扩大内需、全国统 一大市场等领域的问题，都提出了具体的改革方向和建议。 新型城镇化仍然是经济增长的重要引擎 NBD：《建议》在"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标中提出，全要素生产率稳步提升，居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经 济增长主动力作用持续增强。这对今后几年的经济发展会产生哪些影响？ 尹艳林：全要素生产率稳步提升对应高质量发展阶段 ...

每经记者｜张蕊 每经编辑｜陈星 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）正式发布。 记者注意到，此次《建议》在投资、消费等领域出现多个新提法。这些新提法背后有怎样的深意？在我国经济迈向"十五五"的关键节点，如何破解消费率 偏低、内需动力不足的深层矛盾？面对复杂严峻的国内外环境，深化改革的突破口究竟在哪里？ 带着这些关乎经济发展全局的核心问题，近日，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）专访了第十四届全国政协委员尹艳林。 尹艳林深耕宏观经济领域多年，曾长期任职于国家发改委和原中央财经领导小组办公室，曾对中国经济体制改革、供需结构调整等议题有着深刻洞察和独 到见解。 他直言不讳当前面临的一些问题背后是深层次的体制问题，坦言当前改革进入深水区的特征更加明显。他对扩大内需、全国统一大市场等领域的问题，都 提出了具体的改革方向和建议。 新型城镇化仍然是经济增长的重要引擎 NBD：《建议》在"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标中提出，全要素生产率稳步提升，居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增 强。这对今后几年的经济发展会产生哪些影响？ 尹艳林：全要素生 ...

习近平总书记指出："扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之 举。""十五五"规划建议提出，"以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和 需求良性互动"。 干字当头、奋发有为，闻名遐迩的"花炮之乡"湖南浏阳市把扩大内需作为关键抓手，多措并举，更好发 挥内需拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚作用。 激发消费市场更大活力 "来浏阳，欣赏一场绚烂的烟花。"2023年2月以来，浏阳开展超过140场创意焰火燃放活动，吸引游客近 800万人次，其中外地游客占比达90%以上。 据初步统计，浏阳创意焰火燃放活动拉动消费超200亿元，带动吃、住、行、游、购、娱等消费全链条 增长。今年前10月，浏阳接待游客突破4000万人次，实现旅游花费近410亿元，位列"全国县域旅游综合 实力百强县"。 拓展有效投资空间 晚上，装修一新的浏阳通程商业广场流光溢彩，人气火爆。这家于2009年5月建成开业的商场，一度由 于跟不上消费新需求，门可罗雀。 去年，通程商业广场迎来升级：投资5000万元，改造成一个适合居民赏景游玩、户外休闲、时尚购物的 浏阳河畔城市美好生活中心。"修葺一新的购物环境，和50多家浏阳首 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic move for economic stability and security, as highlighted by General Secretary Xi Jinping [1] - The city of Liuyang is leveraging various measures to enhance domestic demand, positioning it as a key driver for economic growth [1] Group 1: Consumer Market Activation - Liuyang has hosted over 140 creative fireworks events since February 2023, attracting nearly 8 million visitors, with over 90% being from outside the city [2] - These events have generated over 20 billion yuan in consumption, boosting various sectors including dining, accommodation, and entertainment [2] - In the first ten months of the year, Liuyang welcomed over 40 million tourists, achieving nearly 41 billion yuan in tourism spending, ranking it among the top 100 counties in national tourism strength [2] Group 2: Integration of Business Models - The integration of diverse business models, such as accommodations and dining, is seen as a vital innovation in supply [4] - Local authorities are focusing on enhancing the consumer experience by expanding offerings like romantic fireworks displays and local cuisine [4] Group 3: Investment Expansion - The newly renovated Tongcheng Commercial Plaza in Liuyang has seen a significant increase in daily foot traffic and revenue, generating over 90 million yuan in just five months after a 50 million yuan investment [5] - Liuyang has attracted 115 new projects this year, with a total investment of 38.734 billion yuan, supported by targeted policies to boost confidence among businesses [6] Group 4: Continuous Release of Consumption and Investment Potential - Liuyang is capitalizing on new policies to stimulate consumption in sectors like automotive and home appliances, while also enhancing investment quality through improved tracking and evaluation of projects [7] - The city has implemented a chain cultivation project that has led to a total output of over 130 billion yuan from ten key industrial chains, with a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The "China Purchase · 2025 Boutique Consumption Month (Heilongjiang Station)" event was launched to stimulate consumption and integrate into national strategies for boosting domestic demand and leveraging the spillover effects of the 8th China International Import Expo [1][3] Group 1 - The event is co-hosted by the Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Commerce and the Heihe Municipal Government, marking the beginning of a series of consumption promotion activities across the province [1][3] - The event aims to release the consumption potential of Heilongjiang by deeply integrating local resources with national consumption initiatives [1][3] Group 2 - Various consumer-friendly policies were announced by the Heilongjiang Provincial Household Appliances Association, the Amur Chamber of Commerce from Russia, and China UnionPay Heilongjiang Branch, aiming to create a consumption boom [3] - The event included signing agreements for trade and supply-demand procurement projects with Russia, showcasing the vitality and potential of the Heilongjiang consumption market [3] Group 3 - The "Boutique Consumption Month" is closely linked with ongoing provincial activities focused on "New Big Markets, New Services, New Consumption," creating a synergistic effect [3] - Local cities and counties are actively participating by integrating global perspectives with local quality resources, enhancing the consumption environment and service quality [3]

中新网黑河11月15日电(记者姜辉)15日，"购在中国·2025精品消费月(黑龙江站)"活动在黑河物流云谷·北 安国际陆港正式启动。 11月15日，"购在中国·2025精品消费月(黑龙江站)"活动在黑河物流云谷·北安国际陆港正式启动。黑龙 江省商务厅供图 "购在中国·2025精品消费月(黑龙江站)"活动现场举行签约仪式。黑龙江省商务厅供图 本次"购在中国·2025精品消费月"活动，与黑龙江省范围内已深入开展、持续升温的"新大集、新服务、 新消费"活动紧密结合、同频共振。黑龙江省内各市县正积极行动，将本次消费月的全球视野与"黑土优 品"、"九珍十八品"及"老字号"等优质资源，融入到本土特色的"新大集"促消费活动中。从线上线下融 合促消到商文旅跨界联动，全方位、多维度营造浓厚消费氛围，优化消费环境，提升服务品质，激发市 场内生动力，形成"全省联动、全域推进"的促消费热潮，推动黑龙江省消费市场向更高质量、更高水平 发展。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 此次活动由黑龙江省商务厅与黑河市人民政府共同主办，标志着黑龙江省系列促消费活动拉开帷幕，旨 在深入落实国家"提振消费、扩大内需"战略部署，衔接"第八届进博会"溢出效 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The core viewpoint emphasizes enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand as an effective measure to unleash consumption potential and facilitate economic circulation [1][4] - The State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang on November 14 focused on implementing "two major" construction initiatives to boost consumption policies [1][2] - The "two major" initiatives involve significant national strategic implementations and enhancing security capabilities in key areas, with a budget of 800 billion yuan allocated for 1,459 projects by 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Consumption and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The meeting highlighted the need for consumption upgrades to lead industrial upgrades, aiming for a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4][5] - The shift in policy focus is moving from merely stimulating consumption or expanding production to achieving a higher level of dynamic balance and interaction between supply and demand [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the development and application of technologies such as artificial intelligence to enhance consumption adaptability [6]