1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is likely to experience short - term pressure and oscillation, with limited downside and upside potential. The 2601 contract price has fallen below the mainstream spot warehouse - receipt cost, and pre - Spring Festival restocking needs will support the price, but the macro - policy benefits have not translated into actual demand, so short - term long - short games are intensifying, and bottom - fishing operations should be cautious [3][4]. - The stock index futures market showed a pattern of early decline and late stabilization. The operation idea is to maintain a low - buying strategy [8][9]. - The gold market is in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time, and the strategy should avoid chasing up and selling down [12]. - The iron ore market has an expectation of loose supply due to the commissioning of the Simandou project. The domestic demand support is weak, and the technical view is wide - range oscillation, with high - selling and low - buying operations [14][15]. - The glass market has a daily melting decline and inventory reduction this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. The technical side shows no sign of stabilization, and the view is oscillatory and bearish [17][18]. - The palm oil market has an actual export volume lower than expected, with high inventory and great supply - demand pressure. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to remain at a high level in December, and the afternoon Dalian palm oil futures are expected to open lower. It should be treated with a rebound - based strategy until a clear inventory - reduction signal appears [20]. - The pulp market has rebounded due to multiple factors, but the fundamental changes are not significant. The 03 and 05 contracts have reached the pressure level of 5500 - 5600, and the spot basis has not shown an obvious strengthening trend. The continuous sharp upward movement of the futures price faces great pressure, and it is temporarily judged as wide - range oscillation [22]. 3. Summary of Each Section Hot Focus - On December 10, coking coal prices continued to fall, with the main contract price at 1070.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.29% [2]. - On the supply side, domestic coal mine production is at a low level in recent years due to over - production inspections, but high Mongolian coal customs clearance and concentrated arrival of seaborne coal will suppress prices in December. On the demand side, the current daily hot metal output is 2.32 million tons, and more steel mill overhauls in December will further reduce production. Steel mills have sufficient inventory and low procurement willingness for coking coal. However, the 2601 contract price is below the mainstream spot warehouse - receipt cost, and pre - Spring Festival restocking demand will support the price [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market was in oscillation today. It opened low and moved lower in the morning, then rebounded after hitting the bottom in the afternoon. The Shenzhen Component Index turned positive in the afternoon, and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices once turned positive. The three major indices all had lower shadows, showing signs of stabilization. The operation idea is to maintain a low - buying strategy [8][9]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The gold market is in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. The strategy should avoid chasing up and selling down [12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply is further fermented. On the demand side, except for the remaining strength in exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - finding, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation view, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting of glass has declined, and inventory has been reduced this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, there is no sign of stabilization, and it should be treated with an oscillatory and bearish view [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The expected export volume of palm oil was 1.43 - 1.45 million tons, but the actual export was more than 200,000 tons less than expected. In November, Malaysian palm oil inventory was at the second - highest level in the same period of history, and the supply - demand pressure is great. In December, Indonesia has lowered the export tax, and the Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to remain at a high level. The afternoon Dalian palm oil futures are expected to open lower. It should be treated with a rebound - based strategy until a clear inventory - reduction signal appears [20]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp market has rebounded due to multiple factors, but the fundamental changes are not significant. The 03 and 05 contracts have reached the pressure level of 5500 - 5600, and the spot basis has not shown an obvious strengthening trend. The continuous sharp upward movement of the futures price faces great pressure, and it is temporarily judged as wide - range oscillation [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月10日 每日观点——多晶硅 供给端来看，多晶硅上周产量为25800吨，环比增加7.50%,预测12月排产为11.35万 吨，较上月产量环比减少0.95%。 需求端来看，上周硅片产量为11.95GW,环比减少0.58%,库存为21.3万吨，环比增加 9.23%,目前硅片生产为亏损状态，12月排产为45.7GW,较上月产量54.37GW，环比减少 15.94%；11月电池片产量为55.61GW,环比减少6.17%,上周电池片外销厂库存为 9.07GW,环比减少4.72%，目前生产为亏损状态，12月排产量为48.72GW,环比减少 12.38%；11月组件产量为46.9GW,环比减少2.49%,12月预计组件产量为39.99GW,环比 减少14.73%,国内月度库存为24.76GW,环比减少51.73%,欧洲月度库存为33.1GW,环比 减少6.49%,目前组件生产为盈利状态。 成本端来看，多晶硅N型料行业平均成本为38700元/吨，生产利润为12300元/吨。 2、基差: 12月09日，N型致密料51000元/吨，05合约基差为-2 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to experience short - term pressure, limited downside and upside potential. The current 2601 contract price is below the mainstream spot warehouse - receipt cost, and there is downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, but the short - term long - short game is intensifying, so bottom - fishing operations should be cautious [3][4] - For the stock index, the Shanghai Composite Index's small - scale adjustment and filling of the gap are conducive to the next day's market, and the current low - buying idea remains unchanged [8] - Gold is in a complex oscillation process and is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell short [13] - Iron ore is in a process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support. It should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea for high - selling and low - buying [15] - Glass has no sign of stabilization and should be viewed with a bearish - oscillation idea [19] - For lithium carbonate, the supply side is steadily releasing, and the demand side is slightly decreasing month - on - month. Opportunities for short positions should be grasped [22] - Pulp has rebounded due to multiple factors, but the fundamental change is not significant. The disk faces great pressure for continuous sharp upward movement, so a wide - range oscillation judgment is maintained for now [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus: Coking Coal - On December 9, the price of the coking coal main contract was reported at 1,082.5 yuan/ton, down 2.21% again, and the cumulative decline since November had reached 17% [2] - On the supply side, domestic coal mine production is at a low level in recent years due to over - production checks, but high Mongolian coal customs clearance and concentrated arrival of seaborne coal will continue to suppress prices in December [3] - On the demand side, the current daily hot metal output is 2.32 million tons. More steel mill overhauls in December will further reduce production, and steel mills have sufficient inventory and low procurement willingness [3] Technical Analysis: Stock Index Futures - The overall market on the day was a weak - oscillation market of opening low, rising, surging, and then falling back. After two consecutive days of sharp rises, the Shanghai Composite Index had a small - scale shock adjustment and filled the gap at the end of the day, which is conducive to the next day's market. The current low - buying idea remains unchanged [8][9] Technical Analysis: Gold - Gold is in a complex oscillation process and is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell short [13] Technical Analysis: Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation is further fermenting. The terminal demand, except for exports, is still in the process of finding a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea for high - selling and low - buying [15][16] Technical Analysis: Glass - Technically, there is no sign of stabilization, and it should be viewed with a bearish - oscillation idea. Daily melting has declined, and inventory has decreased this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for the clearance of the supply side [19][20] Technical Analysis: Lithium Carbonate - On the supply side, production in December increased by about 3% month - on - month due to the commissioning of new production capacity. On the demand side, although it remained stable overall, it decreased slightly month - on - month. The decline in cell production at a high level weakened short - term upward momentum. Opportunities for short positions should be grasped [22] Technical Analysis: Pulp - Pulp has rebounded due to multiple factors, but the fundamental change is not significant. The 03 and 05 contracts have reached the pressure level of 5,500 - 5,600, but the spot basis has not shown an obvious strengthening trend in recent two days. Although the spot price has followed the rise, the basis has not widened, and the disk faces great pressure for continuous sharp upward movement. A wide - range oscillation judgment is maintained for now [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and analyses on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, market dynamics, and suggestions for each product. It also mentions the trend strength of each futures product, which ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs a. Aromatics and Polyester Chain - **PX**: Unilateral oscillation. PXN continues to expand. Do not chase high in the short - term, go long on dips. 5 - 9 positive spread. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is a certain supply gap under high polyester operation [12]. - **PTA**: Unilateral high - level oscillation. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract. There may be an opportunity for PTA processing fee expansion if there are certain PX warehouse receipts in the 01 contract [12]. - **MEG**: Price hits a new low, with a weak trend. Go short on the 5 - 9 spread at high levels. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases in the medium term [13][14]. b. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: Oscillating. Market is affected by inventory and supply factors. The increase in Qingdao inventory slows down, and raw materials may stop falling and stabilize [15][18]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Range - bound. Fundamental pressure exists, but valuation provides support. Raw materials are expected to oscillate [19][22]. c. Asphalt - **Asphalt**: Weak oscillation. Production increases slightly this week, factory inventory rises, and social inventory decreases. The market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [23][30]. d. Plastics - **LLDPE**: Basis weakens, and upstream selling pressure continues to be released. The market is affected by raw materials, supply, and demand. Pay attention to the supply - demand pressure in the medium term [31][32]. - **PP**: Medium - term trend still faces pressure. Supply is relatively high, and demand peaks have passed. Short - term market should not be chased short, but the downward pressure remains [33][34]. e. Others - **Caustic Soda**: Trend still faces pressure. High production and inventory persist, and demand is weak. Supply pressure is large in winter, and cost support is limited [37][39]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating. The market shows narrow - range consolidation and differentiation between futures and spot. The core contradiction lies in the game between supply contraction expectations and high inventory and weak demand [42][46]. - **Glass**: Flat glass prices are stable. Supply eases slightly, but rigid demand is still weak [47][48]. - **Methanol**: Under pressure. Short - term weak operation, medium - term high supply pressure on the 01 contract. There is a possibility of marginal improvement in the first quarter of 2026 [50][53]. - **Urea**: Weak operation. Warehouse receipts increase significantly. Fundamental drivers are neutral, and there are policy and cost support and pressure [55][57]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation. Pure benzene market oscillates, and styrene supply pressure is not large, with port inventory slightly decreasing [58][59]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot market changes little. Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is average [61][62]. - **LPG**: Short - term demand is strong, but medium - and long - term is under pressure. Propylene supply is expected to increase, and upward driving force is limited [64]. - **PVC**: Trend is weak. Supply is high, demand is weak, and short - term should not be chased short. There is a possibility of supply reduction in the future [72]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to rebound and may temporarily get out of the weak situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil weakens in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable [75]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating. Affected by negotiation and freight factors, the 2602 contract is an oscillating market in the medium term, and the 2604 contract has a relatively high probability of short - selling [87][88]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Medium - term pressure exists. Short - sell the processing fee at high levels [90][91]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Wait - and - see. Market prices are stable, demand is weak, and industry operation is at a high level [93][96]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation. Weak current situation but strong future expectations. Inventory pressure is high in December, and supply is expected to contract after January [98][99].

2025.12.8-12.12 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场整体平稳，价格区间保持稳定。供应端开工稳定， 虽有部分装置波动但整体压力仍存；需求表现平淡，下游按需采购 为主，重碱受玻璃行业冷修预期影响维持疲软。厂家执行订单为主， 稳价意愿较强，成本及行业亏损支撑下现货价格底部有限，预计短 期延续窄幅整理格局，后续关注装置变动与下游采购节奏。纯碱期 货震荡偏弱，盘面冲高乏力，在供应回升与需求疲软共同压制下走 低，库存去化对情绪略有支撑但市场观望情绪较浓，短期高库存及 产能释放预期仍构成压力，维持低位震荡。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国（周） 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周纯碱现货市场整体平稳，部分地区报价微涨。供应逐步 恢复，需求呈现分化，轻碱货源偏紧，重碱需求疲软。成本 与订单支撑下价格保持稳定。期货市场低位震荡，高库存与 下游需求疲软形成压制，成本支撑下延续窄幅波动 ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-05 花生下游疲弱，油厂压价 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4105.00元/吨，较前日变化-34.00元/吨，幅度-0.82%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-5，较前日变化+34，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆现货价格呈现稳中趋强态势，小幅上扬20-40元/吨。基层余粮持续消化，存 量逐步见底，农户惜售情绪普遍，构成市场价格底部的刚性支撑。贸易环节方面，市场流通节奏总体平缓，多数 粮商已完成前期订单交付，现阶段购销活跃度相对有限，买卖双方多持观望态度，交投氛围趋于谨慎。从供需结 构来看，市场整体处于紧平衡状态，预计短期大豆价格稳中偏强。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔 粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤， 较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐 齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC inventory is accumulating slightly at a high level. The cost of the calcium carbide process has increased and losses have deepened, while the cost of the ethylene process has decreased and profits have slightly recovered. The PVC production capacity utilization rate is still on an upward trend, and the high - operation state is expected to continue in December. With the drop in temperature, the downstream demand for PVC is expected to decline seasonally. Although overseas demand exists due to the termination of India's BIS and anti - dumping policies for imported PVC, it has limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction. Recently, the PVC market has rebounded due to cost - side benefits and short - covering, but the rebound space is limited under the background of high production and weak demand. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure around 4600 yuan/ton for the V2601 daily K - line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2601) is 4575 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the trading volume is 548,981 lots, down 367,080 lots; the open interest is 1,024,038 lots, down 47,480 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,064,466 lots, down 1,299 lots; the short position is 1,186,643 lots, down 23,163 lots; the net long position is - 122,177 lots, up 21,864 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the spot price of ethylene - based PVC is 4560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4516.92 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the spot price of ethylene - based PVC is 4625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4518.75 yuan/ton, down 4.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 65 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in North China, it is 2740 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2559 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 438 US dollars/ton, down 38 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 498 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 173 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 178 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.22%, up 1.39%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 83.61%, up 2.3%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.38%, down 0.74%. The total social inventory of PVC is 52.79 tons, up 0.12 tons, with 48.13 tons in East China, up 0.08 tons, and 4.66 tons in South China, up 0.04 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 92.43, down 0.35. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 49,061.39 million square meters, up 3,662.39 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 652,939.03 million square meters, up 4,359.03 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 3898.297 billion yuan, up 311.91 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.89%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.3%, down 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.36%, up 0.39%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.36%, up 0.39% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 22nd to 28th, China's PVC production capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, up 1.39% month - on - month. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.42% to 49.61%, with the pipe operating rate down 1.4% to 38.8% and the profile operating rate up 0.21% to 36.09%. As of November 27th, PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% to 1042,800 tons. The average cost of the calcium carbide process nationwide increased to 5131 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 881 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5187 yuan/ton, and the profit increased to - 465 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9040 - 9250 [3][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 56815 - 58595 [7]. - The main logics are capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main positive factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the negative factors are the slow post - holiday demand recovery and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, with no change compared to the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 1190 yuan/ton, a comprehensive开工率 of 74.84% (no change compared to the previous week and higher than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [3]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - **Basis**: On December 1st, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China is 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 179,600 tons, a 1.01% increase; the main port inventory is 129,000 tons, with no change [3]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20 [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [3]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease compared to the previous week. The production schedule for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 195,000 tons, a 4.16% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease compared to the previous month. In November, the battery cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease. The export factory inventory of battery cells last week was 7.63GW, a 36.68% decrease. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The production schedule for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease. The expected component production for December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis**: On December 1st, the price of N - type dense material is 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 5355 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a historical low level [7]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase or no change compared to the previous day, with the increase ranging from 0.11% - 0.66% [14]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of different types of silicon in East China remain unchanged compared to the previous day [14]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory is 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase; the weekly sample enterprise inventory is 179,600 tons, a 1.01% increase; the weekly main port inventory is 129,000 tons, with no change [14]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts shows different degrees of change, with the change range from - 23.53% - 90.27% [14]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly production of sample enterprises remains unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate of different regions also remains unchanged [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs and profits of different types of silicon in different regions remain unchanged [14]. 3.4 Polysilicon Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase compared to the previous day, with the increase ranging from 0.97% - 2.73% [16]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain unchanged compared to the previous day [16]. - **Inventory**: The weekly silicon wafer inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease; the photovoltaic battery export factory weekly inventory is 7.63GW, a 36.68% decrease; the component domestic inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the component European inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.50% decrease [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts shows different degrees of change, with the change range from 19.92% - 29.82% [16]. - **Production**: The weekly silicon wafer production is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase; the photovoltaic battery monthly production is 55.61GW, a 6.18% decrease; the component monthly production is 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease [16]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly DMC production is 49,200 tons, a 3.58% increase; the daily capacity utilization rate is 74.84%, with no change [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of Shandong organic silicon DMC remain unchanged [44]. - **Price Trend**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remain unchanged [14]. - **Import and Export and Inventory**: The monthly DMC export and import volumes and inventory show different trends [49]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and Price**: The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots is 132,800 tons, a 9.93% increase; the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 645,000 tons, a 2.42% decrease. The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,500 yuan/ton, a 0.70% increase [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: The immediate profit of imported ADC12 is - 360 yuan/ton, a 26.23% decrease [14]. - **Inventory and Production**: The weekly inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 74,600 tons, a 0.80% decrease. The weekly production and开工率 of primary and recycled aluminum alloys show different trends [52][55]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of polysilicon show different trends [62]. - **Inventory and Production**: The total inventory of SMM polysilicon, monthly production, and开工率 show different trends [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon shows different situations from October 2024 to October 2025 [65]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Photovoltaic Component Trends**: The prices, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic components show different trends [68][71][74]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: The prices, production, and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories show different trends [77]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends**: The cost - profit trends of different components of 210mm double - sided double - glass components show different trends [79]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: The new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and total power generation of photovoltaic grid - connected power generation show different trends [81].

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2025年11月24日-11月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周01合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8940元/吨,周五收盘价为9130元/吨，周涨幅为2.13% 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。本周样本企业产量为45390万吨,环比 持平;其中云南样本企业开工率为30.29%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为12.06%,环比持平,新 疆样本企业开工率为84.8%,环比持平,西北样本企业开工率为80%,环比增加2.56%,预计本月开工 率为58%,较上月开工率68.12%减少10.12个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为8.2万吨，环比增长2.50%,需求有所抬升。具体来看，多晶硅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage, with a balanced supply and demand situation, high inventory, and weak downstream demand suppressing prices, while cost support limits the downside. The glass futures market is in a downward trend, with a supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and a weak short - term outlook. [8][32] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. - Trend logic: The domestic soda ash market was stable last week, with prices in some regions slightly increasing. Supply recovered as maintenance facilities resumed operation, and demand was divided (light soda ash was in short supply in some areas, while heavy soda ash was weak due to the decline in the glass industry's operation rate). The cost and pending orders supported the price. The futures price was volatile at a low level, and the supply - demand pattern was loose. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with light soda ash demand being stable and heavy soda ash being weak. Supply decreased slightly due to maintenance but was generally sufficient. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong cost, and it was expected that SA2601 would operate in the range of 1100 - 1250. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soda ash spot market was stable last week, with prices in some regions slightly increasing. Supply gradually recovered, demand was divided, and prices were stable under cost and order support. The futures market was volatile at a low level, and it was expected that SA2601 would operate in the range of 1100 - 1250. [11][12] 3.1.3 Relevant Data - Relevant data includes China's weekly soda ash production, operating rate, light and heavy soda ash inventory, basis (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China (weekly). The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is slightly bearish, the capital is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is high. [13][17][24] 3.2 Glass Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The glass is in a volatile downward trend. - Trend logic: The domestic float glass market declined last week, with prices in various regions dropping by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, enterprises increased their inventory - clearing pressure, and the overall inventory was in an accumulating trend. The futures price continued to hit new lows. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to stay in an empty position and wait and see. [32] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic float glass market was weak, with prices stable or decreasing. Supply was sufficient, but downstream orders were limited. The cost provided support, but the market lacked positive factors, and the futures market was in a weak and volatile trend. - This week's strategy suggestion: The float glass market was weak last week, with spot prices generally falling. Supply was abundant, demand was weak, and inventory pressure remained. The futures market was in a downward trend, and it was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [35][36] 3.2.3 Relevant Data - Relevant data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and end - of - week inventory. The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is strongly bearish, the capital outflow is large, and the risk of a market reversal is extremely high. [37][42][49]