1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, due to the weakening support of refined nickel spot premium and the top - divergence phenomenon on the 60 - minute line, it is expected to have a short - term callback. In the short - term, it is recommended to suspend operations to avoid systemic risks, and in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices [2][3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, as the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken with the falling price of nickel - iron raw materials, it may continue the weak shock in the short term to seek strong support below. Similar to nickel, short - term operations are recommended to be suspended, and medium - to - long - term selling hedges at high prices are maintained [4][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 8, 2025, the main nickel contract 2506 opened at 123,880 yuan/ton and closed at 123,630 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 144,478 lots, and the open interest was 68,575 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 showed a narrow - range shock throughout the day, with a small negative line on the daily chart. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest was almost flat. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top - divergence phenomenon on the 60 - minute line near 126,400 before the May Day holiday. The spot market transaction of electrolytic nickel was sluggish, and attention should be paid to the short - term pressure level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - The morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel in the spot market was reduced by 725 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. Downstream customers had relatively sufficient pre - stockpiling, and the short - term purchasing willingness did not recover. The restocking willingness of merchants was also relatively insufficient. The overall spot transaction of refined nickel was average, and the premium increased slightly compared with the previous trading day, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 25 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,564 (- 145.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 198,312 (- 1,470) tons [2]. Strategy - It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. Short - term operations are recommended to be suspended to avoid systemic risks, and in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices. For single - side operations, focus on range trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 8, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2506 opened at 12,745 yuan/ton and closed at 12,705 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 123,851 lots, and the open interest was 70,897 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract followed the nickel market in a shock trend, with a small positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume and open interest of the 06 contract decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly, and short - term downward pressure remained. Attention should be paid to the pressure level near 13,100 [4]. - In the spot market, most merchants' quotations in the Foshan market in the morning were flat compared with the previous trading day. Although the opening guidance price of steel mills was raised, market transaction support was insufficient, and market confidence was still low. The weakening of the mid - day market led most spot merchants to offer discounts for sales. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will run weakly in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 yuan/ton, with a 304/2B premium of 340 - 540 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 3.50 yuan/nickel point to 948.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Due to the continuous decline of nickel - iron raw material prices, the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken. It may continue the weak shock in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. Short - term operations are recommended to be suspended to avoid systemic risks, and in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices. The single - side operation is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-08 国新办政策超预期，不锈钢先扬后抑 镍品种 市场分析 2025-05-07日沪镍主力合约2506开于124430元/吨，收于124450元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.08%，当日成交量 为149603手，持仓量为68873手。 沪镍主力合约2506全天延续窄幅震荡，日线收十字阳线。06主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有大幅度的增加， 持仓量有小幅度增加。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的红柱面积未见明显放大且接近转绿柱的边缘，短周期内的 下跌趋势开始，60分钟线在五一节前的126400附近出现顶背离现象，叠加近期电解镍现货市场成交低迷，关注上 方126000-128000短期一线压力位置。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日持平，市场主流品牌报价部分 小幅下调。下游客户前期备货相对充裕，短期内的采购意愿未见回升，商家的补库意愿也相对不足，精炼镍现货 成交整体表现一般，升贴水对比上个交易日有所下调，升贴水近期处于缓慢下行的态势。其中金川镍升水变化-100 元/吨至2150元/吨，进口镍升水变化25元/吨至125元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the beginning of the year, the alumina futures price has been continuously declining, hitting new lows and breaking key support levels, mainly due to a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The subsequent trend depends on the direction of ore prices and the scale of production cuts [3][4] - The stock index futures market is calm without major negative factors, and the short - term is expected to continue the volatile and bullish pattern [7] - After the holiday, the A - share market had a good start, with small - cap stocks led by the CSI 1000 performing well, rising more than 2% [8] - The medium - and long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. It is more likely to be in a strong volatile trend, but it faces a short - term technical correction [11][12] - In May, the iron ore market has a large supply surplus pressure due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality increases the risk of high valuations. It is recommended to consider shorting at high levels [16] - The glass market needs the real estate stimulus effect or major policy to boost demand. The short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] - The caustic soda market price is running at a low level, with no sign of improvement in downstream demand. It is expected to be weak in the short term [22] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - Supply: Multiple new domestic alumina production capacity projects have been put into operation, and overseas projects have also released capacity, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand: The downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the demand for alumina has limited growth, unable to absorb the excess supply [3] - Cost: The shipment of Guinea bauxite has increased significantly, and the import price has continued to decline. The cost support for alumina has weakened [3] Stock Index Futures - Market situation: There are no major negative factors, and today's large gap - up positive line indicates a short - term volatile and bullish pattern [7] Gold - Long - term: The medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11] - Short - term: There is a technical correction due to the short - term ebb of risk - aversion sentiment and large accumulated gains [12] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: In May, downstream export reduction and shipment increase lead to a large supply surplus, and domestic demand is turning to the seasonal off - season [16] - Strategy: Consider shorting at high levels due to heavy upward pressure [16] Glass - Demand: Demand growth depends on real estate stimulus or major policies [19] - Market situation: The price hit a new low today, and the short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] Caustic Soda - Market price: Running at a low level [22] - Demand: Downstream demand shows no sign of improvement, especially the continuous production cut in the alumina industry [22] - Outlook: Expected to be weak in the short term [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance on April 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.83%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are facing supply - demand imbalances. Coke may face supply pressure, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. - The sugar market was affected by various factors during the holiday. The US economic situation and Brazilian sugar production influenced the price of US sugar, which first declined and then stabilized [1]. - The natural rubber market has a slightly positive demand outlook, with production expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. - The soybean meal market may experience weak price fluctuations due to factors such as the increase in Brazilian soybean exports and the decline in the linkage between the domestic and US markets [3]. - The palm oil market in Malaysia is expected to see an increase in inventory in April 2025, with production and exports also increasing [4]. - The copper market has both positive and negative factors. Short - term prices may fluctuate, but the long - term upward trend remains [5]. - The iron ore market is in a state of seasonal supply increase, with short - term price fluctuations [6]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a fluctuating trend with increasing demand [8]. - The alumina market has an increasing supply due to new capacity and production resumption [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating price trend due to oversupply [10]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On April 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3279.03, down 0.23%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9899.82, up 0.51%; the ChiNext Index closed at 1948.03, up 0.83%. The trading volume was 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 3770.57, down 4.51 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 30, the coke weighted index closed at 1542.6 yuan, down 13.1; the coking coal weighted index closed at 929.2 yuan, down 1.7. Coke may face supply pressure due to increased production, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - During the holiday, US sugar first declined and then stabilized. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of April was 73.1 tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year, higher than analysts' expectations. The 5 - month raw sugar contract delivery volume was about 1.48 million tons. The US economy showed signs of contraction [1]. Rubber - During the holiday, Southeast Asian rubber prices fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day since June affected the oil price, which in turn influenced the rubber market. The global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. Soybean Meal - During the May Day holiday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. Brazilian soybean exports increased, and the domestic soybean meal market may be affected by the arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the weakening linkage with the US market [3]. Palm Oil - During the holiday, the Malaysian palm oil market showed changes. In April 2025, production is expected to increase by 16.9%, exports by 9.7%, and inventory by 14.8% compared to March [4]. Shanghai Copper - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market copper price fluctuated. Positive factors include decreasing domestic copper inventory and uncertain global copper supply. Negative factors include weak US consumer confidence and concerns about future demand [5]. Cotton - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market cotton price rose slightly. Domestic policies to stabilize the economy were introduced, and Xinjiang's cotton sowing was basically completed [5]. Iron Ore - Recently, iron ore shipments have increased seasonally, port inventory has accumulated, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - Recently, asphalt refinery operating rates have increased, and the planned production in May has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Demand is expected to further improve, and short - term prices will fluctuate [8]. Logs - On April 30, the log futures showed certain price ranges. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory decreased, and overall demand was weak [8]. Steel - The rebar market has good fundamentals, with production growth restricted by profits and consumption remaining resilient. The hot - rolled coil market is affected by tariff policies, but the impact may be gradually mitigated [8]. Alumina - The total production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China has reached 109.22 million tons per year, and the operating capacity has increased by 3.48 million tons per year. New capacity and production resumption will increase supply [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - economic situation is complex, with the US tariff policy being uncertain. The supply side is stable, and the demand side shows regional differences [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has been declining. Due to oversupply and falling ore prices, the price is expected to remain weak and fluctuate in the short term [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to continue its regional trends this week, with overall narrow adjustments. The port market may see an oscillating trend, while the inland market may experience a slight decline. The price of MA2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2265 - 2315 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to continue its regional trends this week, with overall narrow adjustments. The port market may face a weakening supply - demand situation due to the potential increase in imported goods, while the inland market may decline as downstream replenishment nears completion. The price of MA2509 is expected to oscillate between 2265 - 2315 [5]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - **Positive Factors**: Some plants are shut down or have maintenance plans; the expected import volume in March is low, and port inventories have decreased more than expected; olefin production is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season; methanol factory inventories in production areas are tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operating rate of refineries in northern Shandong is low; the weather in Iran has warmed, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although methanol prices have risen significantly recently, it is difficult to pass on costs, and attention should be paid to negative feedback from downstream industries; upstream factories are actively selling goods due to high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, with a basis of 142 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of April 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 348,600 tons, a decrease of 101,600 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 74,400 tons to 198,300 tons [5]. - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of methanol futures was 2278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from the previous value. The number of registered warrants decreased by 172 to 6934, and the number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 1222 [7]. - **Price Spread Structure**: The basis increased by 36 to 159; the import price spread increased by 32 to 50; the price spread between Jiangsu and other regions also changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average operating rate across the country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions decreased, while the operating rate in East China remained unchanged [7]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, and other regions. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [58]. - **Foreign Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally. Some plants in the United States and Trinidad have low operating rates or are shut down [59].

金信期货日刊 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 3 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油豆粕期价下跌，背后原因到底是什么? ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.从供应端来看，巴西大豆丰产，4月起月均到港量预计大幅增加，且随着进口巴西大豆陆续到厂， 市场预计五一节后油厂开工率将恢复正常 ，这使得豆油供应不断增加，而需求增长却较为缓慢，供 大于求的局面给价格带来下行压力。 2.在需求层面，全球经济增长放缓，消费者购买力下降，餐饮业复苏缓慢，导致食用油整体需求减弱。 同时，棕榈油价格低位，豆棕价差倒挂，替代品竞争抑制了豆油的市场需求。 3.政策因素也不容忽视，美国生物柴油政策存在不确定性，影响了豆油在工业领域的需求预期。市场 担忧政策变化导致豆油需求减少，进而引发价格下跌。多种因素交织，最终造成了4月29日豆油期货 价格的暴跌。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年4月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为7万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.7万吨，环比减少20.23%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存为25.1万 吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为113500吨，处于高位，有机 硅生产利润为-284元/吨，处于亏损状态，其综合开工率为60.43%，环比持平，低于历史同期平 均水平；铝合金锭库存为1.52万吨，处于低位，进口亏损为639元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和 利润为512.55元/吨，再生铝开工率为55.63%，还比减少0.89%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧55 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油豆粕期价下跌，背后原因到底是什么? 2025年4月28日豆油豆粕期货价格暴跌，主要有以下几方面原因： 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从供应端来看，巴西大豆丰产，4月起月均到港量预计大幅增加，且随着进口巴西大豆陆续到厂，市 场预计五一节后油厂开工率将恢复正常 ，这使得豆油供应不断增加，而需求增长却较为缓慢，供大 于求的局面给价格带来下行压力。 在需求层面，全球经济增长放缓，消费者购买力下降，餐饮业复苏缓慢，导致食用油整体需求减弱。 同时，棕榈油价格低位，豆棕价差倒挂，替代品竞争抑制了豆油的市场需求。 政策因素也不容忽视，美国生物柴油政策存在不确定性，影响了豆油在工业领域的需求预期。市场 担忧政策变化导致豆油需求减少，进而引发价格下跌。多种因素交织，最终造成了4月28日豆油期货 价格的暴跌。 | 主力动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal futures, the mid - line trend is in a wide - range oscillation. The current tight supply is due to slow recovery of oil mill operations and downstream stocking, but future supply is expected to increase. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For the soybean oil futures, the overall trend is in an interval oscillation. There is a temporary supply shortage before the holiday, but subsequent supply pressure will be released. It's also recommended to wait and see [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 16th week, the oil mill's soybean actual crushing volume was 1315400 tons, with an operating rate of 36.98%. Soybean inventory increased by 17.58% to 4259100 tons, and the soybean meal inventory decreased by 56.80% to 125500 tons. The slow recovery of oil mill operations and downstream stocking led to a sharp reduction in inventory, but future supply is expected to increase. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways oscillation, with more positive funds. M2509 was expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 2950 - 3200, and interval operation was recommended [9]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways oscillation, with more negative funds. M2509 is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 2900 - 3100, and interval operation is recommended [10]. 3.1.3 Related Data Situation - Relevant data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [20][22][28]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract continues an interval oscillation. In the 16th week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 249900 tons, an increase of 63000 tons from last week. The commercial inventory in key regions decreased by 43500 tons to 650400 tons. Temporary supply shortage before the holiday and improved macro - sentiment, but future supply pressure will be released. It's recommended to wait and see [34]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways consolidation, with more positive funds. Y2509 was expected to maintain interval oscillation in the range of 7500 - 8000, and interval operation was recommended [37]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The soybean oil futures price is in a sideways consolidation, with more negative funds. Y2509 is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the range of 7700 - 8100, and interval operation is recommended [38]. 3.2.3 Related Data Situation - Relevant data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, and trading volume [48][53].

2025.04.28-04.30 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期装置检修少，整体供应处于较高水平，预计本周开工90+%，产 量76+万吨。五月上旬，检修企业逐步增加，预期产量下降。临近 月底，企业接收新订单。纯碱需求维持，消费稳定，低价补库为主， 下游原材料库存增加趋势，据了解有下游采购量合适，价格相对低。 下月纯碱检修计划增加，市场情绪提振。上周浮法日熔量15.78万 吨，环比减少700吨，光伏日熔量9.73万吨，环比增加1200吨。本 周，浮法生产线一条线放水，产能6 0 0吨，光伏预期两条，产能 2050吨，近期光伏行情有转弱迹象，点火有可能推迟。综上所述， 纯碱走势震荡运行，价格波动收窄。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 纯碱产量维持高位徘徊，下游整体需求波动小，下游原材料 库存增加趋势，市场情绪偏弱，驱动不足，预计纯碱维 持震荡运行。预计主力合约纯碱2509预期运行区间1250- 14 ...