Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report Core View - The overall view for both coking coal and coke is a sideways trading approach. Coking coal shows a slight upward trend in the short - term, while coke is slightly stronger in the intraday period, and both are expected to move in a range in the short and medium - term [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1300.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.17%. In the domestic market, the coking coal auction in Linfen, Shanxi yesterday mostly saw price increases, with a good atmosphere [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to rise; in the medium - term, it will be in a sideways trend. The overall view is a sideways trading approach. Although the fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient at present, recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution factors have caused the coking coal futures main contract to maintain a range - bound operation [1][5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Market**: The latest quotation of the warehouse - receipt price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, also with a week - on - week flat. Some domestic coke enterprises initiated a second price increase last week, but due to the recent shrinkage of steel mill profits, the price increase has not been implemented yet, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain continue to be in a game state [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the intraday period, it is expected to be slightly stronger; in the medium - term, it will be in a sideways trend. The overall view is a sideways trading approach. Recently, both supply and demand of coke have decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side and an overall decline in inventory. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and there is no obvious positive news from the policy side, driving the coke main contract to maintain a range - bound operation [1][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of the apple AP2601 contract in the futures market may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short term. This is supported by the scarcity of high - quality apple supply in the fundamental aspect and the strong bullish sentiment in the technical aspect [10][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 20, 2025, the apple AP2601 futures contract rose significantly, closing at 8,865 points, a 2.26% increase from the previous day. The trading volume was 159,727 lots, and the open interest was 142,886 lots, an increase of 14,247 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: The report presents the price data of multiple apple futures contracts (AP510 - AP605), including yesterday's settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, today's closing price, today's settlement price, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and trading amount [6]. - **Related Market**: Apple options traded 31,546 lots in total on the day, with a total open interest of 32,404 lots, an increase of 3,392 lots. There were 26 lots exercised on the day [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The spot price of apples on the day was 7,500 yuan/ton, and the futures settlement price was 8,798 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis of - 1,298 yuan/ton [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed that there were 0 registered warehouse receipts on the day [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: Currently, late - maturing Fuji apples are gradually entering the market for trading, with high - quality fruits commanding premium prices. Good - quality apples are seeing stable to slightly higher prices. Traders in western regions such as Gansu and northern Shaanxi are actively ordering high - quality fruits, and the warehousing work in some production areas has begun [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily K - line chart, the apple futures formed a medium - sized positive line on the day, with a relatively long real body and closing higher than the previous trading day's closing price, indicating that the bullish force was dominant and driving the price up [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook Fundamentally, the coloring of apples in the western production areas is 10 days behind schedule, the bag - removing in Shandong is postponed by half a month, and the red apples are on the market 15 days later than last year. Fruit farmers in the production areas report that the amount of high - quality fruits has decreased by half, and the proportion of high - quality fruits has declined. The warehousing volume in Gansu is lower than last year, the effective inventory in Shandong is lower than last year, and although the warehousing volume in Shaanxi is large, the proportion of high - quality fruits is not high. The scarcity of high - quality supply provides strong support for prices. Technically, the market is bullish, and the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement. In the short term, the price of the AP2601 contract is likely to continue to be volatile and upward - trending [10][12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, mainly influenced by the cost side. The processing fee remains low, leading to frequent changes in PTA plant loads, and the spot basis is running weakly. The downstream weaving start - up rate is rising slowly [2]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol market is expected to experience short - term shock adjustments. Port inventories have been accumulating since October. Although the cost pressure of oil - based production has eased, coal and natural gas prices are squeezing the coal - based and gas - based production routes. The orders in the weaving market are differentiated, and the demand for winter warm - keeping fabrics is gradually picking up [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Condition**: On October 21, the basis of the main contract TA2601 was - 85 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4325 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side, crude oil, is oscillating downward. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 75.98%, unchanged from the previous day. There have been many maintenance and changes in devices under low processing fees recently. The PTA factory inventory days this week are 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous week [2]. - **Main Force Trends**: There are differences between long and short main forces [2]. MEG - **Market Condition**: On October 21, the basis of the main contract eg2601 was 72 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side, crude oil, is oscillating downward, and coal prices are falling. The total inventory of MEG ports in East China this week is 49.3 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Trends**: The long main force has increased positions [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance on October 20th, with some rising and others falling. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, and overall, the market is affected by a combination of macro - economic, supply - demand, and geopolitical factors [5]. - For most commodities, market uncertainties such as upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, major domestic conferences, and geopolitical situations will impact their prices, and in some cases, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [10][13][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper is affected by factors such as overseas interest rate cuts, supply disruptions at mines, and high domestic prices being resisted. It is expected to have a strong performance in the short - term, with the focus on the impact of major domestic conferences on market sentiment [8][10]. - **Silver**: The main contract of Shanghai silver fell nearly 4% on October 20th [5]. - **Gold**: The main contract of Shanghai gold (2512) had a capital outflow of 5.713 billion yuan as of October 20, 15:23 [6]. - **PVC**: The supply is relatively high, the downstream recovery is limited, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [19]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices rose, with domestic mine production increasing and demand from coking enterprises weakening. The market is affected by factors such as steel mill profits and coke price increases [20][21]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It shows a pattern of tight supply and demand, with prices rising. The supply has growth potential, and downstream demand is strong during the peak season [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is increasing, demand is weakening, and geopolitical risks are decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium to long - term, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is at a high level, demand is affected by factors such as weather and funds, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe due to potential oil price fluctuations [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, supply is increasing, and demand during the peak season is less than expected. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate is at a medium level, downstream demand during the peak season is less than expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. - **Urea**: The cost is rising, demand is weakening as autumn fertilizers end, and the market is expected to stabilize after a decline [22]. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The main contract of live pigs rose nearly 3% on October 20th [5]. - **Apples**: The main contract of apples rose more than 2% on October 20th [5]. - **Soybeans**: The main contract of soybeans (No. 1) rose more than 1% on October 20th [5]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose on October 20th [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all fell on October 20th [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with increasing supply, weak demand, rising cost support, and high inventory levels. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. - The polysilicon market has increasing supply, short - term demand reduction in some sectors but mid - term recovery expected, stable cost support, and the 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons. Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 74,000 tons, with high - level polysilicon inventory, low - level organic silicon inventory, and high - level alloy ingot inventory. The demand remained sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 17, the spot price of non - oxygen - fed silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 500 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 168,000 tons, a 0.09% increase. The main port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 01 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased and was near the historical average level. The demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned production for October was 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.35GW, a 11.84% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 173,100 tons, a 3.15% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The planned production for October was 55.68GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous month. The battery cell production and component production also showed certain changes in production and inventory [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 17, the price of N - type dense material was 51,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 12 contract was - 2065 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 12 contract price closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to recover in the mid - term after a short - term decrease. The overall demand showed continuous recovery, and the cost support remained stable. The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of industrial silicon showed different price changes. The weekly social inventory increased, and the sample enterprise inventory also changed slightly. The production and cost - profit data of different regions and products were also provided [15]. - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon were presented [19]. - Inventory: The historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including delivery warehouses and ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts, were shown [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates in different regions were presented [28]. - Cost: The historical trends of production costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - fed 553 silicon in Xinjiang were shown [34]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon were provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [36][39]. Polysilicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of polysilicon showed different price changes. The production, inventory, and cost - profit data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were also provided [17]. - Disk Price Trends: The historical trends of the PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis were presented [23]. - Fundamental Trends: The historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, opening rate, and monthly demand were shown [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon was provided, showing supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [63]. - Downstream Trends: The historical trends of price, production, inventory, and export of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories were presented [66][69][72][75]. - Component Cost - Profit: The historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components were shown [78].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Nickel: In the short term, nickel prices show a narrow - range oscillation, with contradictions still accumulating. The core lies in the game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy. The key to breaking the deadlock depends on the progress of Indonesian nickel ore supply governance and approval [5]. - Stainless Steel: The current fundamentals struggle to find upward drivers, but the downward space is limited. In the long - term, it may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand dual - weak exploration mode. In the short - term, it is expected to move within a low - level range [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the trading strategy is to sell short at high prices. The expected price range next week is 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [34]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations still exist. It is recommended to buy on dips, with an expected price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton next week [35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures contract price is strong. Although there are potential downward risks, it is expected to remain strong. The recommended trading strategies include being bullish but not chasing the price in the single - side trading, positive spreads in the inter - period trading, and option hedging [67][69]. - Palm Oil: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Attention should be paid to the lower support [90]. - Soybean Oil: The production situation in South America is currently good, and the soybean complex lacks effective drivers [91]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy is intensifying. The supply of refined nickel shows a marginal increase and weak demand, while the non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply policy [5]. - Inventory: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1875 tons to 47505 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13152 tons to 250530 tons [9]. - Market News: There are various events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mining area, sanctions on mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits, and new regulations on the RKAB approval process. Also, there is a claim of potential additional tariffs on China by the US [10][11][12]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers, but the cost limits the downward space. The demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply growth rate has declined compared to previous years [6]. - Inventory: In September, SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 153.2 million tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1% and a year - on - year change of +4%. On October 16, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 104.12 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: The futures price was weakly oscillating, and the spot price declined. On Friday, the futures closed at 8430 yuan/ton, and the SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton) [29]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side shows that the weekly industry inventory increased. In October, production is expected to increase month - on - month. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone in the short term, but overall, it is expected to be in a supply - demand dual - weak state [30][31][34]. Polysilicon - Price Movement: The futures price was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was stable. On Friday, the futures closed at 52340 yuan/ton [29]. - Supply and Demand: In October, supply increased, but leading enterprises plan to cut production at the end of the month. The demand side shows that the silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly in October. The overall situation is expected to be in a relatively tight - balance state from November to December [31][33][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The futures contract price strengthened. The 2511 contract closed at 75700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2960 yuan/ton, while the spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 73350 yuan/ton [67]. - Supply and Demand: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The weekly production reached a new high, and the demand is generally optimistic until November, but it is necessary to pay attention to the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - Market Situation: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Currently, the 01 contract shows a slight oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level during the production - reduction season [90][91]. Soybean Oil - Market Situation: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, it lacks independent drivers and mainly oscillates with the oil and fat sector, also fluctuating with Sino - US economic and trade relations [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both declined, with soda ash futures down 2.5% and glass futures down 9.28%. Soda ash is expected to have a loose supply and reduced demand, making it difficult for prices to rise, but may rebound slightly if there are interest - rate cut expectations next week. Glass is expected to stop falling and stabilize, with its market fluctuating around demand, and the overall de - stocking trend remaining unchanged [6]. - For the SA2601 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the 1200 - 1260 range, with stop - loss in the 1180 - 1300 range. For the FG2601 contract, operation in the 1080 - 1130 range is recommended, with stop - loss in the 1060 - 1150 range [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures declined, with the market oscillating in the first half of the week due to production cut news and falling further in the second half due to poor glass demand. Glass futures dropped due to negative news in the real - estate industry [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply - side domestic production and operating rates decreased, but are at a relatively high level and show an upward trend. Demand from the glass industry remained stable at a low level, and there is a possibility of reduced demand from the photovoltaic glass industry. Soda ash enterprise inventories increased. For glass, supply - side production remained at a low level, and demand was affected by the real - estate market. Although the inventory has re - accumulated, the de - stocking trend remains [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA2601 contract short - term trading in the 1200 - 1260 range, stop - loss in the 1180 - 1300 range; FG2601 contract operation in the 1080 - 1130 range, stop - loss in the 1060 - 1150 range [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices declined this week [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Soda ash spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. Glass spot prices increased, and the basis weakened, expected to flatten in the future. The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week [12][16][22]. - **Specific Data**: As of October 16, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the soda ash basis was - 70 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was - 35 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash price spread was 88 yuan/ton [14][20][24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production volume decreased, and production is expected to increase slightly next week. As of October 16, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%; the weekly production volume was 74.05 tons, a decrease of 3.93% [26][31]. - **Enterprise Profits**: Soda ash enterprise profits declined, and costs increased. Glass enterprise profits also decreased. Soda ash production capacity is expected to decline next week, and glass production capacity will remain at a low level [33]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines decreased by 1, and overall production remained unchanged. There are signs of production line resumption, and production is expected to remain at a low level next week. As of October 16, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 226 in production, and 70 cold - repaired; the national float glass production was 112.89 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0% [38][42]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: This week, the domestic photovoltaic glass capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume remained flat and are expected to remain unchanged next week. As of October 16, 2025, the capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0%; the daily melting volume was 88780 tons/day, with a week - on - week increase of 0 tons/day [44][46]. - **Enterprise Inventories**: Soda ash enterprise inventories increased slightly, and glass enterprise inventories decreased. De - stocking is expected to slow down next week. As of October 16, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventories were 170.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.45%; the total glass inventory was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% [48][52]. - **Downstream Demand**: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly, but demand remained low. As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days [54][56].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a monthly report on apples, dated October 3, 2025, with the research period being September 2025 [1] Group 2: Core View - In September 2025, the apple futures market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the new - season late Fuji's opening price is expected to rise, but there are also supply and demand factors affecting the market [1][2][3] Group 3: Futures Market 3.1 Contract Price Analysis - The main apple futures contract ap2601 showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend in September, with a slightly upward - moving monthly operation center. The influencing factors of the apple market in September were relatively stable, including spot price fluctuations, weather changes in production areas, and the relative impact of other fruits [3] 3.2 Variety Market Analysis - The total open interest of apple futures was 111,461 lots, the trading volume was 1,883,035 lots, and the turnover was 156.5155 billion yuan. The report also provided detailed monthly market data for each apple futures contract [4][5] Group 4: Spot Market 4.1 Basis Data - The apple futures basis in September was generally negative, meaning the spot price was lower than the futures price [7] 4.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 0 [8] Group 5: Influencing Factors 5.1 Influencing Factor Analysis - Substitute fruits such as grapes and pomegranates had a partial impact on the apple market. The old - stock Fuji apples were not fully cleared, and the remaining inventory moved slowly. Market demand varied, with some merchants stocking up as needed before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival. The cost of high - quality new apples remained high, and the export volume of new - season apples increased in August [8][9][10] 5.2 Technical Analysis - In September, the technical side of apple futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Short - term moving averages supported the price, and the price fluctuated within a relatively stable range. The moving averages formed a long - position arrangement, with the long - position power on the disk slightly dominant [11] Group 6: Market Outlook - On the supply side, the western apple - producing areas were affected by adverse weather during the flowering period, resulting in smaller single - fruit sizes and potentially lower high - quality fruit rates. The remaining cold - storage apples in the country were at a five - year low. New - season apples in the west had uneven fruit sizes, and the impact of post - bag - removal weather on coloring and appearance needed attention. On the demand side, the market was boosted to a limited extent by the Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals. After the festivals, the apple market was still affected by the sales of seasonal fruits, and the market arrival volume was low. Technically, although the apple futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend in September, with the approaching large - scale listing of new - season apples, the ap2601 contract price may face upward pressure and is expected to show a high - level volatile trend [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the cost - end crude oil price is continuously falling. The PTA futures follow the cost - end to fluctuate and decline. The PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate mainly affected by the cost - end in the short term [3]. - For MEG, starting from October, the supply - demand pattern is expected to shift to inventory accumulation, with continuous inventory - building pressure in the far - month. The market is under obvious pressure, and the short - term MEG market is expected to be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents PTA - **Main Contract**: On October 14, the basis of the main contract TA2601 was - 75 yuan/ton, down - 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4400 yuan/ton, down - 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end crude oil price is continuously falling. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.46%, up 1.57% from the previous day. There are many overhauls and changes of devices under low processing fees recently. The PTA factory inventory days in the week are 4.22 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 days [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: The short - side main force increased positions [3]. - **Trend**: The PTA futures market opened low and moved low following the cost - end. The restart and load - reduction of PTA's own devices are concurrent, and the new production capacity is put into operation with a delay, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly [3]. MEG - **Main Contract**: On October 14, the basis of the main contract eg2601 was 81 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4142 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end crude oil price is continuously falling, and the coal price is stable. The MEG futures follow the cost - end to fluctuate and decline. The total MEG port inventory in East China is 44.51 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.08 tons [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: The short - side main force reduced positions [4]. - **Expectation**: Starting from October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to shift to inventory accumulation, with continuous inventory - building pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under obvious pressure. Terminal foreign trade orders are still few, the profit margin of the domestic market is continuously narrowing, and the industry is under overall pressure [4].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In September 2025, the price of Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend. The average spot price dropped from 22,060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,770 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The core driving factors were the continuous realization of the logic of loose domestic supply, the increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, which led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - In September, Shanghai Zinc futures showed a volatile and weak trend. The monthly closing price of the main contract (ZN2510.SHF) dropped from 22,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.8%, and the settlement price also decreased by 1.7%. The price trend can be divided into three stages: narrow - range consolidation supported by macro - sentiment at the beginning of the month, a decline after the realization of the logic of loose supply and demand in the middle of the month, and a slight stabilization at the end of the month supported by pre - holiday restocking and low LME inventory. The core driving factors were the domestic supply surplus (increase in zinc ore imports and high smelting output), the under - performance of the peak demand season, and the pressure on social inventory accumulation, which led to the downward shift of the price center. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and low overseas inventory only provided periodic support [3] 1.2 Variety Market - Among the 13 contracts of Shanghai Zinc futures, the prices of each contract varied in September. The Shanghai Zinc 2509 contract rose, while the rest of the contracts declined, with fluctuations ranging from - 1000 points to 100 points. The position volume was 240,189 lots, an increase of 16,498 lots. The trading volume was about 4.418 million lots, an increase of about 810,000 lots compared with the previous month. Overall, the market trading was relatively active [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Price - In September, the spot price of Shanghai Zinc showed a trend of "stable at first, then weak, and a slight recovery at the end of the month". At the beginning of the month, boosted by the macro - interest rate cut expectation, the price oscillated in the range of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, as the continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory and the weakness of the peak demand season were realized, the price gradually dropped to around 21,700 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the pre - holiday restocking of some downstream enterprises drove a slight rebound in the spot price, but it failed to reverse the monthly downward trend [8] 2.2 Basis Data - According to Wind statistics, the basis of Shanghai Zinc was mostly negative in September, with the spot at a discount to the futures. At the end of the month, the basis narrowed to + 5 yuan/ton (September 30), mainly driven by pre - holiday restocking. However, the average basis rate for the whole month was - 0.35%, indicating that the pattern of oversupply in the spot market remained unchanged [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - Supply side: The looseness of zinc ore was transmitted to refined zinc, and the output remained at a high level. The import of zinc ore increased significantly. From January to August, the import volume of domestic zinc concentrates increased by 43.06% year - on - year, and the import processing fee (TC) rebounded to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton. The looseness at the ore end supported the production at the smelting end. The output of refined zinc increased significantly. From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic refined zinc increased by more than 9% year - on - year, and the scheduled production in September was close to 610,000 tons, with continuous release of supply pressure. Smelters were actively operating. The processing fee was at a two - year high, and with the supplement of by - product profits, smelters had strong production enthusiasm, and only some enterprises slightly reduced production due to maintenance [10] - Demand side: The "Golden September" peak season was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The recovery of the operating rate of the processing industry was limited. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month, but were all lower than the same period last year, and the PMI was still below the boom - bust line, so enterprises' procurement sentiment was cautious. Terminal demand was weak. Infrastructure growth was limited, real estate sales were sluggish, automobile sales declined year - on - year, and the export of galvanized sheets was restricted. The consumption boost in the peak season was less than expected. The pre - holiday restocking effect was short - lived. At the end of the month, some downstream enterprises stocked up for the National Day, and the spot trading improved slightly, but it failed to reverse the overall weak situation [11][12] 4. Market Outlook - The increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [13]