Core Insights - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has returned to a 1% year-on-year increase in September, marking the first time in 19 months that the growth rate has reached this level, indicating a stabilization in prices [2][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a 2.3% year-on-year decline in September, but the rate of decline has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting improvements in market conditions [5][6] Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in September, with food prices rising by 0.7%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase [2] - The year-on-year CPI decline of 0.3% was primarily influenced by base effects from the previous year, with the tail effect accounting for approximately -0.8 percentage points [4] Group 2: PPI Insights - The narrowing decline in PPI is attributed to the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the ongoing development of a unified national market, which has improved price stability in various industries [5][6] - Specific industries such as coal processing and black metal smelting have shown price increases, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% month-on-month [6] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Consumption Trends - New emerging industries are thriving, with innovative consumption models driving positive price changes in related sectors [7][10] - The demand for quality consumption is increasing, with significant price increases in sectors such as arts and crafts (14.7% year-on-year) and sports equipment (4% year-on-year) [10]

Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI for January to September showed a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first time in 19 months that it returned to above 1% [1] Food Prices - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year in September, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Cumulative food price change for the first nine months was -1.8%, while non-food items saw a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - Significant declines in specific food items included pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), eggs (-13.5%), and fresh fruits (-4.2%) in September [2] Gold Prices - In contrast, gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - International gold prices increased from approximately $3,500 per ounce at the beginning of September to nearly $3,800 per ounce by the end of the month [3] - Gold investment demand remained strong, with sales of gold bars and coins experiencing a 44% year-on-year increase in the second quarter [3][4] Market Demand and Economic Policy - The low CPI indicates a persistent issue of oversupply in the macroeconomic landscape, necessitating increased counter-cyclical policy measures [2][5] - The government aims for a CPI growth target of around 2% for the year, the lowest since 2004 [5] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence [5][6]

央视网消息（新闻联播）：国家统计局10月15日发布的数据显示，9月份，我国消费市场运行总体平稳，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%。扣除食 品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大。其中，扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨1.8%，服务价格上涨0.6%。 现代化产业体系加快构建，制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展向好，市场需求稳步扩大，带动飞机制造、电子专用材料制造等行业价格同比上涨。 随着全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，市场竞争秩序持续优化，带动部分行业价格明显企稳，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比继续持平，同比降幅比上 月收窄0.6个百分点。 ...

评论： 通胀数据快评 PPI 环比连续两个月为 0 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月15日 事项： 10 月 15 日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 9 月 CPI 同比-0.3%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.4%；环比 0.1%， 预期 0.2%，前值 0%。中国 9 月 PPI 同比下降 2.3%，预期下降 2.3%，前值下降 2.9%；环比继续持平。 国内价格改善迹象延续。从本期数据来看，海外通胀仍对国内价格改善起到一定支撑作用，例如 PPI 当中 偏海外定 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article emphasizes that the recent CPI decline of 0.3% is misleading, primarily due to food prices dragging down the overall index, with pork prices dropping by 17%, fresh vegetables by 13.7%, and eggs by 13.5% [3] - The focus should be on the core CPI, which, excluding food and energy, has increased by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer demand for durable goods like home appliances and electronics [3][4] - The PPI has decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting that the industrial sector is stabilizing and moving away from aggressive price competition [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that the current data reflects a gradual warming in the economy, with the core CPI indicating real demand recovery and the PPI showing a shift from harmful competition to healthy development within industries [4] - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the October CPI may turn positive due to a lower base from last year, and the PPI is expected to stabilize or even slightly increase, indicating a more stable economic environment [4] - Investors are advised to focus on the warming segments within the core CPI, such as home appliances and consumer electronics, as well as the stabilizing industrial sectors within the PPI, rather than short-term fluctuations in food prices [4]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1] - The decline in year-on-year CPI is attributed mainly to base effects, while the month-on-month increase is driven by rising international gold prices and the implementation of consumer stimulus policies [1] - There is a significant possibility of a positive CPI in October, according to analysts [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 0.4% to 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, while year-on-year they decreased by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI remained flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.3% from -2.9%[2] - Production demand improved, supporting price increases in some energy and raw material sectors[2] - The coal processing price rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while the prices for coal mining and washing increased by 2.5%[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in CPI may continue into October due to tailwind factors, with a focus on the progress of pig production capacity reduction[2] - The real estate market remains weak, with property sales area and sales value down 4.7% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - M1 growth has been rising, which is expected to support PPI improvement, although the overall PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year[2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In September, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while it increased by 0.1% month-on-month [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1][4] - The decline in CPI was primarily attributed to the "carryover effect," with food prices dropping by 4.4%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [4][6] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, with the month-on-month figure remaining flat [1][6] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in producer prices [6][9] - The prices of production materials showed a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, but the decrease has lessened compared to previous months, suggesting some recovery in production material pricing [8][10] Group 3: Economic Factors and Market Trends - The improvement in price indices is attributed to the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and the continuous optimization of market competition [1][10] - Various macroeconomic policies are showing positive effects, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year price decline in several industries, including coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [10][11] - The overall market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with projections indicating that the PPI decline will narrow in the latter half of 2025 due to improved market conditions [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low in September, but core inflation is showing signs of recovery, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is experiencing a narrowing decline, indicating marginal improvement in industrial demand [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months that it has surpassed 1% [2][4]. - The decline in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with significant drops in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, down 17.0%, 13.7%, and 13.5% respectively [6][4]. - Analysts suggest that the high base effect will gradually diminish, and there is potential for the CPI to turn positive year-on-year within the year [7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][10]. - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the "anti-involution" policies that have led to price stabilization in several industries, including coal and steel, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% month-on-month [9][10]. - The overall market environment is improving due to regulatory measures aimed at curbing disorderly competition, which is expected to enhance industrial capacity utilization and support a re-inflationary trend [11].

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2][3] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily due to a "tail effect," with a contribution of approximately -0.8 percentage points from this effect, while new price changes contributed about 0.5 percentage points [2] - Food prices fell by 4.4%, impacting the CPI decline by about 0.83 percentage points, with lamb prices experiencing their first increase after 44 months of decline [2] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7%, contributing approximately 0.20 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] - The core CPI's increase to 1.0% is attributed to improved consumer demand and the effects of recent consumption-boosting policies [3] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating better-than-expected performance [4] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries stabilizing prices [4] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is also linked to the ongoing optimization of market competition and the effects of macroeconomic policies [4][5] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the CPI will show a mild recovery in 2025, with a projected annual increase of 0.1% [3] - The PPI is expected to experience a decline in the first half of 2025, followed by a stabilization or slight recovery in the latter half, with an overall forecasted annual decrease of 2.7% [5]