油脂日报 | 2025-05-09 昨日三大油脂价格震荡，外盘棕榈油、豆油价格走强，对内盘形成一定支撑，但整体基本面依然利多支撑不足， 价格难有大幅起色。 策略 谨慎看空 风险 政策变化 美豆油价格走强，国内油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7908.00元/吨，环比变化-6元，幅度-0.08%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7760.00元 /吨，环比变化-26.00元，幅度-0.33%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9372.00元/吨，环比变化+37.00元，幅度+0.40%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P09+582.00，环比变化-34.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8110.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y09+350.00，环比变 化+16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9520.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.32%，现货基差OI09+148.00， 环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至5月6日当周，约15% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil price rebound provides short - term support for palm oil, and soybean oil remains relatively strong among varieties [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 7,908 yuan/ton (down 0.08% during the day, up 0.56% at night), soybean oil主力 at 7,760 yuan/ton (down 0.33% during the day, up 0.93% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,372 yuan/ton (up 0.40% during the day, up 0.11% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 3,801 ringgit/ton (up 1.99% during the day, up 0.89% at night), and CBOT soybean oil主力 at 48.40 cents/pound (up 2.26%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 trading volume was 685,958 lots (down 62,759), open interest was 428,821 lots (up 2,700); soybean oil主力 trading volume was 342,797 lots (down 13,586), open interest was 607,347 lots (up 4,521); rapeseed oil主力 trading volume was 444,856 lots (up 9,308), open interest was 313,272 lots (up 10,848) [1] - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,520 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,410 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 945 dollars/ton (down 25 dollars) [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 612 yuan/ton, soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 400 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 38 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,464 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 148 yuan/ton. Palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 248 yuan/ton, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 140 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - BIMP - EAGA Business Council plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil in Sabah through cooperation [2][3] - Kenya is interested in cooperating with Malaysia to build a palm oil processing center in Mombasa Industrial Park [3] - As of the week of May 6, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 11% last year [3] - Private exporters reported selling 22.5 tons of soybeans to Pakistan for 2025/26 delivery [4] - Anec predicted that Brazil's soybean exports from May 7 to May 10 would be 351.36 tons (down from 376.78 tons last week), and soybean meal exports would be 69.31 tons (up from 52.28 tons last week) [4] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised the forecast of Argentina's 2024/25 soybean harvest from 48.6 million tons to 50 million tons [4] - As of March 31, 2025, Canada's rapeseed inventory decreased by 38.7% year - on - year to 5.9 million tons. Exports increased by 73.6% to 6.8 million tons, and domestic consumption reached a record 8.1 million tons [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 0, and soybean oil trend intensity was 0 [6]

Group 1: Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 7984, opening price 7946, highest price 7974, lowest price 7884, closing price 7914, down 70 (-0.88%), trading volume 748717, open interest 426121, open interest change 58556 [7] - P2505: Previous settlement price 8392, opening price 8300, highest price 8310, lowest price 8204, closing price 8204, down 188 (-2.24%), trading volume 128, open interest 340, open interest change -108 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 7752, opening price 7728, highest price 7814, lowest price 7726, closing price 7786, up 34 (0.44%), trading volume 356383, open interest 602826, open interest change 18909 [7] - Y2505: Previous settlement price 7884, opening price 8140, highest price 8140, lowest price 7620, closing price 7900, up 16 (0.20%), trading volume 34, open interest 1198 [7] - O1509: Previous settlement price 9242, opening price 9186, highest price 9362, lowest price 9180, closing price 9335, up 93 (1.01%), trading volume 435548, open interest 302424, open interest change 21448 [7] - O1505: Previous settlement price 9208, opening price 9195, highest price 9330, lowest price 9193, closing price 9310, up 102 (1.11%), trading volume 135, open interest 1326, open interest change -132 [7] - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First-grade soybean oil, spot 09+400, June - September 09+300; Third-grade rapeseed oil 09+150 [7] - May East China; Guangxi rapeseed oil traders' basis quotes: Third-grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09+0; East China 24-degree palm oil, May 20 - June 15 delivery P09+480 yuan/ton, June 25 - July 25 delivery P09+400 yuan/ton [7] Operational Suggestions - Palm oil futures market: Despite being in an oversold state technically, fundamental negative factors will continue to affect the market. As the main palm oil producing areas enter the peak production period, inventory will rise significantly in the coming months, and palm oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. The decline in crude oil makes the future demand outlook for B40 unclear, and the soybean-palm oil price spread is gradually returning to normal [8] - Soybean oil: There is still an expectation of a large number of imported soybeans arriving at ports, and the tight supply of soybean oil is expected to ease, with the possibility of a later basis decline [8] - Rapeseed oil: It is greatly affected by import policies. The forecast of future purchase shipments is significantly lower year-on-year, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and biodiesel [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated to be 1.73 million tons by MPOA, a 24.62% increase month-on-month. Peninsular Malaysia's production increased by 28.06% month-on-month, Sabah's by 24.07%, Sarawak's by 11.37%, and East Malaysia's by 20.76% [9] - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1 - 5 increased by 60.17% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 61.58% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.59% month-on-month [9] - Reuters estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in April to be 1.62 million tons, imports 50,000 tons, exports 1.1 million tons, consumption 338,000 tons, and inventory 1.794 million tons; Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [9] - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, China's domestic soybean oil inventory was 581,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons (2.92%) from last week; the contract volume was 1.322 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons (1.66%) from last week. Coastal inventory was 516,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons (3.48%) from last week; the contract volume was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (1.51%) from last week [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple graphs, including the spot price of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International factors such as the faster - than - expected US soybean planting progress, the delay of the US EPA's decision on biodiesel blending standards, the narrowing growth of Malaysian palm oil exports, and the lack of progress in Indonesia's B40 plan have led to a decline in peripheral oil prices. In the domestic market, different oils have different situations: soybean oil may enter a stockpiling phase with increasing imports and rising refinery operating rates, causing price pressure; palm oil prices revolve around import costs with low inventory and mainly rigid - demand transactions; rapeseed oil shows a pattern of short - term supply surplus but a long - term bullish outlook due to falling rapeseed stocks [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Industry News - China's imports of US feed grains and oilseeds account for a low proportion of domestic consumption, are mostly feed grains, have high substitutability, and will not affect domestic food supply even if imports stop [2] - On April 25, the total commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils was 175 million tons, with week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes of - 7 million tons, - 20 million tons, and + 15 million tons respectively. Different oils had different inventory changes [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 25 increased by 13.8% (ITS data) and 14.8% (AmSpec Agri Malaysia data) compared to the same period in March, driven by Indian restocking and palm oil's discount to soybean oil [3] - US agricultural products are affected by China's import suspension measures, with some product prices dropping by over 20% [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content provided 3.3 Views and Strategies - Internationally, the faster - than - expected US soybean planting progress and the delay of the US EPA's decision on biodiesel blending standards have led to a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Malaysian palm oil exports' growth has narrowed, and Indonesia's B40 plan lacks progress, causing a continuous decline in Malaysian palm oil prices [7] - Domestically, soybean oil may enter a stockpiling phase as imports increase and refinery operating rates rise, putting pressure on prices. Palm oil prices revolve around import costs with low inventory and mainly rigid - demand transactions. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply surplus but a long - term bullish outlook due to falling rapeseed stocks [7]

油脂日报 | 2025-04-29 多空交织，油脂延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8174.00元/吨，环比变化-202元，幅度-2.41%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7814.00 元/吨，环比变化-120.00元，幅度-1.51%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9333.00元/吨，环比变化-173.00元，幅度-1.82%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8790.00元/吨，环比变化-120.00元，幅度-1.35%，现货基差P09+616.00，环比变 化-38.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8150.00元/吨，环比变化-190.00元/吨，幅度-2.28%，现货基差Y09+336.00， 环比变化-70.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9450.00元/吨，环比变化-180.00元，幅度-1.87%，现货基差 OI09+117.00，环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：加拿大油籽加工商协会（COPA）发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2025年03月，加拿大油菜籽压榨 量为1024532.0吨，环比升16.08%；菜籽油产量为436060.0吨，环比升16.77%；菜籽粕 ...

Report Title - Palm Oil: Doubts about the upward driving force, temporarily treat it as volatile; Soybean Oil: Spot sentiment improves, but there may be a correction at high levels [1] Core Viewpoints - The upward driving force of palm oil is doubtful, and it is temporarily treated as volatile; the spot sentiment of soybean oil has improved, but there may be a correction at high levels [1] Industry News - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 25, 2025, were 923,893 tons, a 14.75% increase from the same period last month [3] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 25, 2025, were 950,957 tons, a 13.8% increase from the same period last month [5] - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 25, 2025, were 703,169 tons, a 3.6% increase from the same period last month [6] - The Indian vegetable oil industry has urged the government to widen the import tariff gap between crude and refined vegetable oils to curb the import of processed oils and support domestic refining capacity [6] - As of the week ending April 22, 2025, in the CFTC持仓 report, CBOT soybean long positions increased by 8,711 to 191,535, and short positions increased by 3,188 to 135,851; CBOT soybean oil long positions increased by 9,688 to 133,444, and short positions increased by 4,892 to 73,053; CBOT soybean meal long positions increased by 813 to 114,769, and short positions increased by 7,653 to 145,745; ICE rapeseed long positions increased by 25,613 to 94,577, and short positions decreased by 1,369 to 46,743 [7] - In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 80% of the soybean - planted area has been harvested due to sunny and dry weather [7] - As of April 24, 2025, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina's 2024/25 season was 13%, behind last year's 23% [7] - Strategic Grains maintained its 2025/26 EU rapeseed production forecast for the third consecutive month at 1.9 billion tons, a 13% increase from 2024/25; slightly lowered the EU's next - year sunflower seed production forecast to 1.05 billion tons from last month's 1.06 billion tons, but still a 26% increase from 2024/25; and lowered the 2025/26 EU soybean production forecast from 320 million tons last month to 310 million tons, a 3% increase from this year [8] - As of the week ending April 20, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 31.8% to 140,500 tons from the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 7.5224 million tons, a 72.3% increase from the same period last year. As of April 20, 2025, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.2009 million tons [9] Fundamental Tracking Futures | Variety | Closing Price (Day Session) | Change Rate (Day Session) | Closing Price (Night Session) | Change Rate (Night Session) | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Yesterday's Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 8,376 yuan/ton | 1.77% | 8,310 yuan/ton | -0.79% - -0.83% | 963,432 lots | 273,901 lots | 414,485 lots | 22,167 lots | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 7,934 yuan/ton | 1.12% | 7,868 yuan/ton | | 536,090 lots | 196,448 lots | 646,754 lots | 47,749 lots | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,506 yuan/ton | 1.24% | 9,471 yuan/ton | -0.37% | 588,867 lots | 164,060 lots | 351,144 lots | 24,179 lots | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,058 ringgit/ton | 0.55% | | | | | | | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 49.70 cents/lb | -0.74% | | | | | | | [2] Spot | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 9,230 yuan/ton | 200 yuan/ton | | Grade 1 Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,420 yuan/ton | 120 yuan/ton | | Grade 4 Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 9,500 yuan/ton | 150 yuan/ton | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB Off - shore Price (Continuous Contract) | 1,005 US dollars/ton | 0 US dollars/ton | [2] Basis | Variety | Spot Basis | | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 854 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 486 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | -6 yuan/ton | [2] Spread | Variety | Spread | | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 1,130 yuan/ton | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | -442 yuan/ton | | Palm Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 338 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 60 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 Spread | -45 yuan/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: -1; Soybean oil trend intensity: -1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10]

3、据外媒报道，布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所周三表示，未来七天，阿根廷主要农业区 将普遍干燥。干燥条件预计将加快 2024/25 年度的大豆收获。此前大豆收获受阻，因许多田 地土壤水分过剩。 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 油 脂 | 国 | | 日 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 7846.00 | 7838.00 | 8.00 | 0.10% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 8230.00 | 8218.00 | 12.00 | 0.15% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 9390.00 | 9396.00 | -6.00 | -0.06% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 4月23日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1051.50 | 1046.25 | 5.25 | 0.50% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to run weakly in the short - term as producers in the origin regions are offering concessions [1]. - Soybean oil is expected to run relatively strongly among varieties due to low domestic inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: - Palm oil futures (domestic) closed at 8,068 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.79% decline and 7,980 yuan/ton at night with a - 1.09% decline. Trading volume was 740,461 lots, an increase of 120,687 lots, and open interest was 379,404 lots, an increase of 23,977 lots [2]. - Soybean oil futures closed at 7,722 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.23% increase and 7,684 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.49% decline. Trading volume was 343,658 lots, a decrease of 23,955 lots, and open interest was 576,914 lots, an increase of 16,888 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,280 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.64% increase and 9,273 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.08% decline. Trading volume was 462,792 lots, a decrease of 69,931 lots, and open interest was 292,872 lots, an increase of 769 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: - The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 932 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 428 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,212 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 346 yuan/ton. Palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 472 yuan/ton, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 68 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil News**: - From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 9.11% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 7.69%, and oil extraction rate increased by 0.27% [3]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 20, 2025 were 709,397 tons, a 18.53% increase from the same period last month. SGS estimated exports at 572,729 tons, a 3.64% increase from the same period last month [5]. - Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March 2025, slightly down from 2.06 million tons in the previous month [5]. - In the first three quarters of the fiscal year, Pakistan's imports of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 116.37% and 23.42% respectively compared to the same period last year. From July 2024 to March 2025, Pakistan imported about 237,655 tons of soybean oil worth $251.137 million and over 2.489 million tons of palm oil worth $2.572 billion [5]. - **Soybean News**: - As of the week ending April 20, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the market expectation of 7%, 2% in the previous week, 7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 5% [6]. - Argentina's estimated soybean planting area for the 2024/25 season is 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from last month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The estimated soybean production is 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season. In March, Argentina exported 6,832.28 tons of soybeans, 477,495.66 tons of soybean oil, and 2,099,161.14 tons of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, indicating a weak trend. The trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7].

豆油：情绪反复，驱动偏少 2025 年 4 月 15 日 棕榈油：宏观影响减弱，震荡整理 | | | | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） 8,748 | 涨跌幅 0.00% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） 8,750 | 涨跌幅 0.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,734 | 0.29% | 7,674 | -0.78% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,383 | 0.78% | 9,347 | -0.38% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,170 | -1.04% | 4,133 | -0.89% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美 分/磅 | 46.88 | -2.01% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 473,951 | -75,275 | 156,589 | -15,419 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 65,830 | -14,579 | 143,8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are oscillating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's production forecast for South America in the 24/25 season is high, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The deterioration of Sino - US relations and tariff issues affect the market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in February, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is rated as neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8042, with a basis of 396, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On April 7, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 860,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. It is rated as bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is rated as bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is rated as bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil should be traded in the range of 7450 - 7850 for the Y2509 contract [2]. 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is rated as neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9384, with a basis of 630, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On April 7, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous value of 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is rated as bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil should be traded in the range of 8550 - 8950 for the Y2505 contract [3]. 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is rated as neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9333, with a basis of 68, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On April 7, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous value of 630,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is rated as neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil should be traded in the range of 9000 - 9450 for the OI2505 contract [4]. 3.4 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is currently the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].