行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 合药 | 前结算价 : | 开 蓝价 : | 成高价 | 最低价 : | 收盘价 :涨跌: | | 张跌幅 | 成交量 : | | 持企業 持企量要化 | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **P2509**: Previous settlement price 8814, opening price 8808, closing price 9064, up 250 (2.84%), trading volume 580261, open interest 400643, open interest change +50247 [7] - **P2601**: Previous settlement price 8830, opening price 8810, closing price 9044, up 214 (2.42%), trading volume 188349, open interest 224873, open interest change +16881 [7] - **Y2509**: Previous settlement price 8246, opening price 8226, closing price 8344, up 98 (1.19%), trading volume 303060, open interest 469009 [7] - **Y2601**: Previous settlement price 8204, opening price 8194, closing price 8320, up 116 (1.41%), trading volume 217779, open interest 500881, open interest change +32194 [7] - **O1509**: Previous settlement price 9490, opening price 9522, closing price 9615, up 175 (1.32%), trading volume 204310, open interest 188408, open interest change +6762 [7] - **OI601**: Previous settlement price 9429, opening price 9458, closing price 9547, up 118 (1.25%), trading volume 77547, open interest 144896, open interest change +11141 [7] Operational Suggestions - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to increased production and weak demand, but there are rumors of a significant decline in Indonesia's June production. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply but fewer far - month purchases. Soybean oil inventory may increase in the short term but is optimistic in the long term due to biodiesel policies. The spot basis of the three major oils has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to buy far - month basis appropriately. The three major oils may adjust in the short term, but the adjustment space is limited. In the medium and long term, buy on dips [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports in July were 896362 tons, a 25.0% decrease from June. Exports to China were 75000 tons, down from 168000 tons in June [9] - Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month, with FFB yield up 7.19% and OER down 0.02% month - on - month [9] - Estimates suggest that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of July reached a 19 - month high, with Reuters estimating production at 1.828 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.25 million tons; Bloomberg estimating production at 1.83 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.23 million tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including those on the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, price spreads of palm oil futures contracts, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit and the Chinese yuan [11][19][26][30]

Group 1: Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 60954 | 8894 | 8918 | 8926 | 8746 | 8838 | -56 | -0.63% | 611600 | 350396 | -43745 | | P2601 | 8914 | 8946 | 8946 | 8756 | 8832 | -82 | -0.92% | 187926 | 207992 | 6902 | | Y2509 | 8228 | 8274 | 8296 | 8210 | 8250 | 22 | 0.27% | 310265 | 474605 | -25151 | | Y2601 | 8186 | 8230 | 8256 | 8154 | 8214 | 28 | 0.34% | 205137 | 468687 | 14291 | | OI2509 | 8495 | 9516 | 9545 | 9442 | 9542 | 41 | 0.49% | 218228 | 181646 | -7467 | | OI2601 | 9434 | 9462 | 9478 | 9383 | 9472 | 38 | 0.40% | 76818 | 133755 | 5894 | [7] Operation Suggestions - The short - term adjustment of the three major domestic oils may occur at any time, but the adjustment space is limited. In the medium and long term, it is advisable to buy on dips. - The spot basis of the three major domestic oils has little room for significant downward adjustment in the later stage. It is advisable to appropriately buy the far - month basis. [8] Core View - In the morning, the performance of oils was poor, mainly dragged down by the decline of CBOT soybean oil and the weakness of international crude oil. - The palm oil production in Malaysia in July may be better than expected, but the export is still very weak, which means that the palm oil inventory at the end of July may exceed 2.1 million tons. According to shipping survey agencies, the export of Malaysian palm oil in July decreased by 2.4% - 9.6% month - on - month. The increase in production and weak demand put pressure on palm oil prices. - The near - term supply of rapeseed oil is sufficient, but the fewer purchases of far - month cargoes support the futures price. - Due to the still abundant supply of Brazilian soybeans at present, factories will maintain a high operating rate, and the inventory of factory soybean oil may still increase, which drags down the rise of soybean oil, but the long - term outlook is positive. [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, the palm oil production in Malaysia in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month, among which the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit increased by 7.19% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.02% month - on - month. - According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 - 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 5.52% month - on - month, among which the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit increased by 6.08% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. - According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July was 1,163,216 tons, a 9.6% decrease compared with 1,286,461 tons in June. According to ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July was 1,289,727 tons, a 2.4% decrease compared with 1,320,914 tons in June. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][19][21][23][26][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated. Malaysia's export data showed a slowdown in July. Although India's purchases increased, the overall inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. The crops in the US soybean production area are growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Although the export data is good, its impact on the domestic market is limited [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or -0.91% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,192.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.00 yuan or -0.58%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 111.00 yuan or -1.15% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,940.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan or -0.67% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was P09 + 40.00, an increase of 22.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.00 yuan/ton or -0.48%. The spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, an increase of 8.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan or -1.13%. The spot basis was OI09 + 90.00, an increase of 1.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to data from the shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a decrease of 6.71% compared to the 1,382,460 tons exported in the same period last month [2] India's Palm Oil Purchases - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that as global prices decline, Indian vegetable oil importers are increasing their palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season [2] Indonesia's Palm Oil Policies - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per ton, higher than the $877.89 in July. The new reference price means that the export tax for crude palm oil in August will be raised from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton. Indonesia also adjusted the reference prices and export taxes in previous months, with significant fluctuations [2] US Crop Drought Conditions - According to the latest USDA drought report, as of the week ending July 29, about 5% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, compared to 8% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year. About 7% of the US corn planting area was affected by drought, compared to 9% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year. About 5% of the US cotton planting area was affected by drought, compared to 3% in the previous week and 11% in the same period last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The EU and Indonesia reached a zero - tariff quota for palm oil trade, which is beneficial for palm oil exports. However, the market expects that the zero - tariff palm oil exports from Indonesia to the EU will mainly increase the demand for palm oil in the food industry, with limited impact, and the oils will continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Related Content Futures Prices - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8982.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +12 yuan, or +0.13%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8240.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +14.00 yuan, or +0.17%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9621.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +129.00 yuan, or +1.36% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9000.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +60.00 yuan, or +0.67%, and the spot basis was P09 + 18.00, a环比 change of +48.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8370.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +20.00 yuan/ton, or +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 130.00, a环比 change of +6.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +130.00 yuan, or +1.36%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 89.00, a环比 change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market News - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), and they agreed on a tariff quota method for palm oil trade, which will set a quota for the quantity of EU - imported palm oil eligible for 0% tariff [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 579 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 569 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1182 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1140 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F quote of imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1060 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1040 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 460 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 455 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 469 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the premium of the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 229 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium of the US West Coast (September shipment) was 202 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium of Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 270 cents/bushel, up 7 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - As of the week of July 23, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 tons of 24/25 - year soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 2743.16 tons. The local oil mills purchased 74.57 tons, and the export industry purchased 4.2 tons. In addition, Argentine farmers sold 4.3 tons of 25/26 - year soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 48.95 tons. The local oil mills purchased 4.3 tons, and the export industry purchased 0 tons. The total soybean sales of all years in that week were 84.69 tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 6864.8 tons. As of July 23, the cumulative export sales registration quantity of 24/25 - year soybeans was 803.7 tons, and the cumulative export sales registration quantity of 25/26 - year soybeans was 0 tons [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2) Core Views - Palm oil has short - term support due to positive crude oil and macro sentiment; soybean oil is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to China - US trade progress [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,982 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and (night session) 8,930 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase, and (night session) 8,234 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% decrease; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,621 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and (night session) 9,579 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% decrease. Other futures prices and their changes are also presented [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 111,443 to 500,291 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,345 to 403,926 lots; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 140,618 to 279,490 lots, and open interest decreased by 5,073 to 506,250 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 4,753 to 280,029 lots, and open interest increased by 18,819 to 215,474 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan/ton with a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,610 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan increase [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 180 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 639 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 742 yuan/ton, and other spreads are also provided [1] b) Macro and Industry News - On July 30, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff to 50% [2] - Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, up from 173.5 million tons in the previous year [4] - Heavy rains in western, northern, and central Ukraine have slowed down the harvest progress, leading to a decline in exports and a possible drop in rapeseed production. As of July 25, Ukrainian farmers had harvested about 1 million tons of rapeseed (compared to 3.3 million tons last year) and about 7 million tons of wheat (compared to 17 million tons last year) [4] c) Trend Intensity - Palm oil's trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil's trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with different levels of strength defined [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period, with favorable weather in major producing areas, causing some long - positions to leave. CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased month - on - month, and the prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil are weak, increasing the pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures to correct [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil spot supply is abundant, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is crucial for future imported soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly rebounded, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually falling, but the spot supply is still sufficient. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, and ICE rapeseed fluctuates narrowly. The uncertainty of imports still supports rapeseed oil prices, which are expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Argentina cuts export tariffs on most agricultural products, including reducing the tariff on sunflower seeds from 7% to 4%, soybeans from 33% to 26%, and soybean meal and soybean oil from 31% to 24.5% [2] - The US and the EU reach a major trade agreement, with the EU imposing a unified 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US, lower than the original 30% [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are expected to be 684,308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports will decrease by 5.1% in 2025, from 29.5 million tons last year to 28 million tons due to increased domestic consumption [2] - As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China is 1088100 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons or 0.34% compared to last week [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. Some long - positions leave waiting for the result of the new round of US trade negotiations, and CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil faces increased correction pressure due to export decline, production increase, and weak prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil supply is abundant, and the Sino - US trade negotiation result is crucial for future imports. Palm oil maintains a weak supply - demand pattern and follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is falling, but supply is still sufficient, and the uncertainty of imports supports its price, which is expected to range - bound in the short term [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oils and fats is that prices may correct from high levels, and investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, after the correction, selling put options or buying call options can be considered [10][11][12] Summary by Section 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 24, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2509 was 8166, up 92; palm oil 2509 was 9104, up 110; and rapeseed oil 2509 was 9492, up 36. The basis for different regions and varieties showed various trends, with some remaining stable and some having small changes [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 52, up 8; for palm oil it was 44, up 24; and for rapeseed oil it was 53, unchanged [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 938, down 18; the OI - Y spread was 1326; the OI - P spread was 388, down 74; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70, up 0.09 [3] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a盘面 profit of - 114, and CNF price was 1065. The FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil was 1043, with a盘面 profit of - 895 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 59.1 million tons (compared to 56.3 million tons last week and 109.2 million tons last year); palm oil inventory was 50.7 million tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons (compared to 70.6 million tons last week and 42.9 million tons last year) [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, the same as last month's forecast and higher than last year's 50.7 bushels per acre. The USDA also predicted the 2025/26 US soybean production at 4.335 billion bushels, lower than last month's forecast and last year's production [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: On July 24, 2025, palm oil futures prices rose more than 1%. As of July 18, 2025 (the 29th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The origin's quotes were stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There was a rumor of one ship purchase. The spot market was stable, and investors can consider buying on dips due to the potential for inventory build - up and the positive macro - environment [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: On July 24, 2025, soybean oil futures prices rose more than 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2305500 tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. As of July 18, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1091800 tons, a 4.04% increase from last week and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. The basis was stable. With a large arrival of soybeans and high crushing volume, soybean oil is in a phase of inventory build - up, but it is still showing a strong upward trend driven by the overall oil and fat market. Investors can consider buying on dips without over - chasing the high [6][8] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: On July 24, 2025, rapeseed oil futures prices rose slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59000 tons, and the operating rate was 15.72%. As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week, still at a historical high but with a continuous marginal reduction. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around $1020, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 600. The spot market was quiet, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. Due to more policy disturbances, the single - side price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [8] 3. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct from high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [10] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] - **Options**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [12] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads over different time periods from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Short-term, it is expected that the prices of edible oils will experience a high-level correction. Investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, after the correction, investors can consider selling put options or buying call options [12][13][14] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2509 contract were 8076, 8926, and 9477 respectively. The price of soybean oil decreased by 16, palm oil increased by 16, and rapeseed oil decreased by 86. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 48, 24, and 66 respectively. The changes were +4, -28, and -5 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was -850 with a change of -32, the OI - Y spread was 1401, and the OI - P spread was 551 with a change of -102. The oil - meal ratio was 2.62 with a change of -0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The on - paper profit for 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was -74, and for Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil, it was -654 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 29th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 59.1, 50.7, and 69.5 million tons respectively. Compared with last week and the same period last year, the inventory changes varied [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20, 2025, were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease from the same period last month [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. It is expected to correct in the near future, and investors can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 109.18 million tons, a 4.04% increase from last week. With a large amount of soybeans arriving in the country and high crushing volume, it may experience a high - level correction in the short term and maintain a volatile trend. Investors can consider buying on dips [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. The spot market is sluggish, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It will maintain a wide - range volatile trend, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [10] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term, expect edible oils to correct at high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [12] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13] - **Options Strategy**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [14] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different edible oils over the years, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20]