Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is experiencing turmoil as the 30-year Treasury yield approaches 5% and the 10-year yield surpasses 4.5%, contrasting with the strong rebound in the U.S. stock market [1] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increasing government debt and interest payment ratios, with a stable outlook despite previous negative adjustments [3] - The U.S. federal government's interest payments on debt have exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, becoming the third-largest expenditure item, surpassing defense spending [5] Group 2 - China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen below those of the UK for the first time since the early 2000s, with China holding $765 billion compared to the UK's $779 billion [5] - The U.S. government is considering reducing tariffs on China in response to supply chain disruptions caused by China's rare earth export controls, highlighting the strategic importance of these materials [7] - Approximately 5% of U.S. rare earth usage is for defense, indicating China's significant influence on U.S. defense capabilities, particularly in advanced military aircraft development [7]

结束中东之行后，特朗普表态愿前往北京求援，并且刚刚取消一项禁令。特朗普在接受美国福克斯新闻 访问时谈到，称自己愿意访问中国，亲自到北京和中方就贸易问题和外交问题进行商讨，并且还强调， 中美关系至关重要。特朗普主动释放访华的信号，显然是对华伸出橄榄枝，暗示希望中方给他一个台阶 下，促成中美元首会晤。至于特朗普想谈的话题，显然并不只是贸易和外交问题，而是在美债等金融问 题上寻求援手，帮助美国稳定金融市场。例如，开放资本市场，增持美债，至少不要继续大幅抛售美 债。 目前，中方尚未正面回应特朗普的访华意愿，显然是在评估他的诚意。因此，他不仅大谈中美就关税问 题上达成协议对"统一与和平"非常有利，而且刚刚还取消了针对人工智能发展所用半导体芯片出口禁 令，从而维持对华销售。这是特朗普政府一次重大政策转向，其目的是希望中方伸出援手，最主要的是 帮助美国度过下个月的难关。但特朗普想要获得中方的支持或配合，可能还需要展现更多的诚意，特别 是要明确表态反对"台独"，支持中国人民的统一事业。 同时，特朗普寄望于全球性的贸易战引发资本恐慌，促使各国资本将美国视为"避风港"，大量涌入美国 投资，以此缓解美国债务压力，巩固美元的国际地位 ...

Report Summary of Crude Oil 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Wednesday, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of upward movement [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information - **Price and Movement** - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract slightly rose 0.69% to 467.8 yuan/barrel [5]. - News that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities caused international oil prices to jump 3% on Wednesday morning [5]. - **Driving Factors** - Positive factors: The "gray rhino" effect of the approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the expected demand for crude oil is weak. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased again due to the decreasing expectation of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and the news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [5]. - Negative factors: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and the macro - factors have turned optimistic [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday, and the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract is also expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Slightly stronger oscillating; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][5] - Core logic: Macro factors have improved, boosting the confidence to buy in the rubber market. However, the new rubber supply is gradually increasing as the rubber - tapping season arrives. The downstream tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase. Despite a 0.74% decline in the 2509 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Rising; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][7] - Core logic: Although macro factors are turning optimistic, the US debt crisis in June may cause a negative impact. OPEC+ is increasing production, and oil demand is expected to be weak. But the news of Israel's possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has driven up oil prices. Despite a 0.86% decline in the 2507 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [7]

特朗普（资料图） 据环球网报道，美国总统特朗普第二任期执政满百日，从美股到美元再到美债，美国金融市场遭遇多 次"过山车"式的振荡。30年期美债收益率一度录得数十年来最大单周涨幅，"避风港"地位受到质疑。美 国"政府效率部"负责人马斯克曾直言。他所说的，是美国"债务时钟"网站显示的统计数据。目前，美国 国债总额已超过36.8万亿美元。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院近期发布一份报告，警告美债的"庞氏骗 局"正在进入濒临破产的前夜。 稀土（资料图） 值得注意的是，近日，中国国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室部署开展多部门专项行动，重点打击战略 矿产走私出口。会议指出，加强战略矿产资源出口管制事关国家安全和发展利益。国家对镓、锗、锑、 钨、中重稀土等战略矿产实施出口管制以来，部分境外实体与境内不法人员相互勾结，不断翻新走私出 口手法，试图逃避打击。为避免战略矿产非法外流、遏制走私势头、切实维护国家安全，同时促进合规 贸易、保障产供链稳定，打击战略矿产走私出口成为当前迫切且重要的工作任务。 中方一系列动作，已经让美国看不到迎来中国稀土的希望，对此，不甘心的特朗普，似乎有意来中国和 我们好好面谈一次。近日，特朗普再次表达了想访问 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. Treasury and the implications of the U.S. debt crisis**. It also touches on the **impact of the Trump tax cuts** and the **potential of domestic computing power companies** in the context of globalization and economic uncertainty. Core Insights and Arguments - The **U.S. Treasury has not issued new debt**, leading to a **$2 trillion fiscal gap** that relies on the TGA account and unconventional measures. The Treasury Secretary warns that funds will be exhausted by August, necessitating a resolution before mid-July to avoid a repeat of the 2019 debt ceiling crisis [1][3] - The **Trump tax cuts** are compared to Reagan's supply-side reforms, with the assertion that their stimulative effect is weaker than direct fiscal spending. If the 2025 tax cuts lack fiscal support, it could lead to an economic downturn and potentially trigger a global financial crisis [1][4] - Three paths to alleviate the U.S. fiscal crisis are identified: **over-issuing U.S. debt, increasing tariffs, and debt default**. Each of these paths would exacerbate the debt crisis by increasing supply, reducing dollar trade volume, and lowering credit ratings, respectively [1][5] - In the current environment of increasing uncertainty, there is a recommendation to embrace **anti-fragile safe assets**, including **immediate net assets** (like gold and similar assets) and **future cash flows** from domestic computing power companies that have a certainty premium [1][6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **rise of de-globalization** is increasing environmental uncertainty, leading capital to seek certainty. Anti-fragile safe assets, such as gold and domestic computing power companies, are seen as more attractive due to their principal certainty and future cash flow premiums [1][7] - The focus on **AI domestic patents** is emphasized, as de-globalization makes computing chips non-tradable, thereby securing market share for domestic computing power companies and providing future cash flow certainty [2][6]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1, raising concerns about U.S. debt credibility [1][9] - Following the downgrade, U.S. Treasury bond futures experienced significant declines, with long-term futures dropping over 1.1% and ultra-long-term futures falling over 1.6% [1][3] - The yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 5%, indicating rising borrowing costs [1][5] Group 2 - The downgrade is attributed to the increasing scale of U.S. government debt and interest payments, with projections suggesting that by 2035, federal debt could reach 134% of GDP [9] - The market is reacting to the potential for rising deficits, with the federal deficit expected to climb to 9% of GDP [9] - Analysts suggest that the downgrade could lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries, exacerbated by ongoing fiscal challenges and political disputes over the debt ceiling [10][11] Group 3 - The market is currently facing structural demand declines for U.S. Treasuries, with expectations of interest rate cuts being hindered [10] - The recent "reciprocal tariffs" initiated in April have contributed to a broader market sell-off, raising doubts among global investors regarding U.S. debt [10][11] - Analysts recommend maintaining a range trading strategy in the short term, with potential for yield declines if economic data continues to weaken [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.16% to 14,850 yuan/ton [5]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the macro - factor has improved and boosted the confidence in the rubber market, the new rubber supply is increasing as the natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad enter the new tapping season. Meanwhile, the downstream tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase as the operating rate returns to normal. With limited improvement in the supply - demand structure, it is expected that the domestic rubber futures may maintain a weakly volatile trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract closed slightly lower by 0.45% to 12,290 yuan/ton [7]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and the macro - factor has turned optimistic, the approaching US debt crisis in June may cause a new round of negative macro - impacts. Also, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the expected demand for crude oil is weak. With the weakening of cost factors, it is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend on Monday [7].

我写《美债又崩了》，有粉丝质疑，美联储不是美国的吗？为什么要拆自己的台？ 问这种问题的人，真的是天真的可爱。 你不妨往自己身边看看，好多人一家子两夫妻，处得跟仇人一样，为了财产或者别的，勉强凑一块，心 底里各种算计，恨不得把对方弄死的多了去了。你别问，一问户口本上一家人，真要是谁死了，剩下的 那个，就占大便宜了。 所以懂王跟美联储之间彼此不对付有那么难理解吗？ 这世界上什么都可以让，唯有利益是不能让的。 懂王独享欲非常强，当了两届总统，你啥时候见他有过什么亲密的政治盟友？谁跟他关系好，都只能是 用得上的那一阵子，但凡用不上了，即便像马老板这样，出钱出力把他送上总统宝座，那也是随时能欢 送出白宫的。 从懂王的第一任期开始，建制派们就已经想好了要联手限制总统的权力。 当然了，这也不是建制派们跟懂王有什么深仇大恨，纯粹是美国的政治传统。 我们以前经常听公知们说，要把权力关进笼子里。 后来我们慢慢发现，权力世袭真的很难，但财富世袭却是容易的。把权力关进笼子里限制起来，然后让 财富自由，这不就相当于让财富控制了权力，然后世袭罔替仙福永享了吗？ 以前总有人说，谁当美国总统都是一样的，就是让个动物当总统，美国照样运转。 这 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily due to a stronger US dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, leading to a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - As of the latest report, spot gold has dropped by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a weekly decline of nearly 4%, marking the worst week since November of the previous year [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in a reduction of approximately 58 basis points in interest rates by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, down from a peak expectation of 120 basis points during the height of panic in April [2][3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to ongoing global monetary easing, with central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, having already cut rates multiple times [3][4] - The geopolitical landscape, including developments in the US-Iran agreement and Russia-Ukraine talks, is expected to influence gold prices significantly in the coming week [3][6] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices may experience a second bottom test, with key support levels identified around $3152 and $3140, while resistance is noted at $3210-3212 [4][6] Group 3 - The article outlines specific trading strategies for gold, recommending short positions around $3230-3235 and long positions on pullbacks to $3165-3170, with defined stop-loss levels [7][8] - It highlights the importance of managing positions effectively, especially for traders who may find themselves in losing positions, suggesting that timely analysis and adjustments are crucial for recovery [8]