基本面： 周五（01月16）亚洲时段黄金价格震荡盘整，国际黄金价格延续回落态势，现货金价下探至4605美元/盎司附近。美国就业数据表现强于预期，推动美元指 数升至多周高位，成为压制贵金属的核心因素。投资者对美联储短期降息预期进一步降温，资金更多流向美元资产。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，截至1月 10日当周，首次申请失业救济人数降至19.8万，明显低于市场预期的21.5万，也较前值修正后的20.7万进一步下降。该数据表明劳动力市场韧性依旧，为美 元提供了新的上行动能。 "近期数据使市场对美联储在上半年采取行动的预期趋于观望，美元指数处于多周高位，这对黄金构成明显阻力。"除货币政策因 素外，地缘局势的阶段性缓和也削弱了黄金的传统避险属性。此前市场担忧中东局势可能升级，推动金价一度走强，但随着紧张情绪有所降温，部分避险资 金出现离场迹象。 目前黄金行情为价格上涨趋势。可以布局支撑多单和压力位空单思路。 1. 黄金技术图表显示目前K线支撑位4560附近 2. 大周期MACD图形呈现均线相交箭头向上大趋势看涨，目前盘整为主要MACD亚盘方向。能量柱显示波峰平缓且处于能量柱0轴上方且能量减弱。市场活 跃 度减弱，交易需要 ...

有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/02-2026/01/15） 供需向好叠加宏观情绪转暖，有色金属集体上涨 2026 年 1 月 16 日 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523120001 行情回顾。截至2026年1月15日，申万有色金属行业近两周上涨13.03%，跑赢 沪深300指数10.40个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第3名。截至2026年1月 15日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，小金属板块上涨16.67%，贵金属板块 上涨16.53%，工业金属板块上涨12.56%，能源金属板块上涨10.97%，金属新 材料板块上涨8.10%。 周 报 有色金属行业重要新闻及观点 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、行业下游需求不及预期风险、原材料价格波 动风险、在建项目进程不及预期、美联储再度施行紧缩性货币政策、行业内 部竞争加剧等风险。 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgz ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are under pressure, currently reported at $4595.27 per ounce, down 0.44%, influenced by a stronger US dollar and reduced geopolitical tensions [1] - The unexpected decline in US initial jobless claims to 198,000, the lowest since November, has provided upward momentum for the dollar, impacting gold negatively [1] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, particularly regarding Iran, which has reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - President Trump is delaying decisions on actions against Iran, allowing for more time for Israel to prepare for potential retaliation, which may affect market sentiment [2] - The Senate has passed a package of spending bills, reducing political uncertainty and slightly lowering safe-haven demand for gold [2] - Recent trading patterns in the gold market indicate a potential for upward movement, with specific price levels identified for buying opportunities [3]

今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于89.17一线上方，今日开盘于92.30美元/盎司，截 至发稿，comex白银暂报89.71美元/盎司，下跌2.71%，最高触及92.64美元/盎司，最低下探89.53美元/盎 司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 资本公司分析师Kyle Rodda在一份报告中写道："今年年初，美元走势较为坚挺。美国周度初请数据以 及一些制造业调查结果均好于预期，这降低了美联储即将降息的预期概率。" 目前据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为20.8%，维持利率不变的概率为78.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.9%。 【最新comex白银行情解析】 多头占据明显图表优势，下一个上行目标是推动期货价格收于100.00美元的强劲技术阻力位上方；空头 的下一个下行目标是将期货价格跌破80.00美元的坚实支撑位。第一阻力位见于隔夜创下的历史高点 93.70美元，其次是94.00美元；下一个支撑位为隔夜低点86.125美元，其次是85.00美元。 【要闻速递】 美元周五有望实现 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of spot silver is around $90.68 per ounce, down 1.83% from the opening price of $92.38, with a high of $92.78 and a low of $90.21, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - Strong economic data released on Thursday, including a decrease in initial jobless claims and a 0.4% increase in import prices, led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.6 basis points to 4.156% [2] - The market's optimistic outlook on the economy is reflected in the positive spread of 59.6 basis points between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, suggesting a cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The recent price action in silver shows a critical resistance level between $93 and $94, with a potential for significant pullback if this level is not breached [2] - Key support for silver is identified in the $86 to $87 range, with further potential declines expected if this support fails, possibly leading to prices dropping below $80 [2] - The market is advised to monitor support levels at $78 and $74-$73 for potential stabilization before any upward movement [2]

1月16日，美元指数延续震荡走强态势，截至当日亚市早盘报99.3821，较前一交易日纽约汇市收盘价上 涨0.23%，盘中最高触及99.4946，最低下探99.0384，日内波幅超45个基点，交投活跃度较高，多空博 弈情绪升温。目前美元指数已站稳99.3关键关口，连续两个交易日收涨，短期强势格局进一步巩固，不 过中长期仍受美国经济基本面、政策周期及全球资金流向等多重因素制约，上行节奏或存反复。 但美元上行空间仍存明显制约，中长期下行压力并未实质性缓解。从经济基本面看，美国能源行业受国 际油价持续低位震荡拖累，页岩油企业开采活动持续放缓，钻机数量较去年同期减少超15%，能源板块 对GDP的贡献度边际下滑，间接压制经济复苏动能。从资金流向看，新兴市场资产吸引力稳步上升，近 期巴西、印度等新兴市场央行维持利率稳定，部分经济体开启降息周期，与美联储政策差逐步收窄，推 动全球资金向高收益新兴市场资产分流，持续对美元构成边际压力。此外，机构普遍预测美联储上半年 仍将启动降息周期，累计降息50个基点的预期仍占主流，长期宽松政策基调未改，叠加美国政府债务规 模突破34万亿美元，财政可持续性引发市场担忧，均对美元长期估值形成压制 ...

中国银河证券指出，区域冲突加剧支撑铜、钨、钼、钴、稀土磁材等关键战略有色金属价格上涨的逻辑 有望延续。此外，美国12月非农就业新增5万人不及预期，且前两个月数据遭遇大幅下修7.6万人，2025 年全年就业增长创下自疫情以来最疲软的年度表现；且近期三个月移动平均就业数据已滑入负值区间， 凸显美国劳动力市场动能已显著衰退，这或将提升市场当前对美联储2026年降息2次的预期。而区域冲 突风险也将加大市场避险需求，利好金价上涨。 截至2026年1月16日 09:54，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨1.18%，成分股驰宏锌锗上涨 6.09%，江西铜业上涨5.56%，金钼股份上涨5.15%，西部矿业，白银有色（维权）等个股跟涨。有色 ETF鹏华(159880)上涨0.58%， 冲击6连涨。最新价报2.25元。 有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 消息面上，近期受区域局势推动，金、银、铜、锡，价格同时创新 ...

1月16日，美元周五有望实现连续第三周的上涨。此前美国公布的经济数据表现良好，降低了市场对美 联储短期内降息的预期。联邦基金期货市场将下一次降息的时间预期推迟到了6月，原因是就业数据有 所改善，同时央行决策者也对通胀问题表示了担忧。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 资本公司分析师Kyle Rodda在一份报告中写道："今年年初，美元走势较为坚挺。美国周度初请数据以 及一些制造业调查结果均好于预期，这降低了美联储即将降息的预期概率。" ...

美联储官员言论汇总，古尔斯比：鉴于有充分迹象显示就业市场稳定，央行应将重点放在降低通胀上。博斯蒂克：通胀过高，需要保持紧缩政策。保尔森： 支持在下次会议上维持利率不变。施密德：货币政策目前并不十分紧缩，目前几乎看不到降息的理由。戴利：政策处于"良好位置"，调整应谨慎。 据AXIOS报道，据五名知情的美国、以色列及阿拉伯消息人士透露，美国总统特朗普正推迟关于打击伊朗的决定，目前白宫正就相关事宜在内部及与盟友 进行磋商。消息称，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡请求特朗普推迟行动，以便为以色列准备可能的报复争取更多时间。 以色列的意思很简单，要打就打狠点，直接把伊朗政权换掉；要么就不打，否则如同隔靴搔痒！ 本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；国际和国内价格换算方法，国际价格×汇率÷31.1≈国内价格！ 随着伊朗内部各个城市游行示威的逐步结束，目前美伊暂时降温；但美国正向该地区派遣航母战斗群，和抓捕委内瑞拉总统之前如出一辙。我们继续关注地 缘局势发展。 昨天美国公布的初请失业金数据好于预期，加之月初公布的非农就业数据失业率降低，本周早些时候公布的CPI通胀数据基本符合预期，零售数据好于预 期，且昨天公布的纽约和费城两 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term prices fluctuate greatly due to market sentiment, and cautious participation is recommended. Supply: Myanmar's tin ore imports increased significantly in November, and Indonesia's approved export quota for 2026 is about 60,000 tons. Demand: Tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industry is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The decline in production is gradually being implemented. Pay attention to the change in polysilicon production and the lower support. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range likely to be between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon - The spot price is stable, and the futures are weakly volatile. There is support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level. The market has a certain bottom - support as silicon wafer and polysilicon supply and demand are basically matched. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [4]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals are good, and the bottom center is gradually rising. In the short term, the price remains high due to the global inventory imbalance and supply concerns. Pay attention to the change in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99,000 - 100,000 support [7]. Zinc - The LME's suspension of zinc ingot delivery from Korea Zinc led to a supply - tightening expectation. The price is supported by the tight ore supply, but there is also pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 24,000 support [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The market showed a high - level correction. The cost is the main driving factor, but the fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand pattern. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, with the reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - The price is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to inventory accumulation, downstream consumption, and overseas events [12]. Nickel - The market is affected by Indonesia's nickel ore policy adjustment and geopolitical factors. The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, with the main center reference range of 140,000 - 152,000 yuan [13]. Stainless Steel - The market is driven by raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the cost support is strengthened, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile, with the reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures are in shock adjustment. The production is slightly increasing, and the demand has certain resilience. The short - term is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the reference range of 155,000 - 165,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 5.06% to 426,000 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased 12.50% to 700 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable, and the basis of some varieties changed [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type materials was stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased 4.74% [4]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased 1.29% to 102,575 yuan/ton, and the premium increased [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 3.42% to 25,410 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 decreased 0.83% to 24,000 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined spread of some varieties changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased 1.95% to 24,190 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [12]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 2.46% to 150,050 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan rose, and the basis increased [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.45% to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the basis changed [17]. Inter - month Spread - **Tin**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed, with some spreads decreasing and some increasing [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spreads of the main contract and other contracts changed, with some spreads increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The spreads of contracts such as the main contract, near - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed significantly [4]. - **Copper**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [7]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of AL 2602 - 2603, AL 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [12]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [17]. Fundamental Data - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased 0.06%. The开工率 of some sectors changed [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In December, the national industrial silicon production decreased 1.15%, and the开工 rates of different regions changed. The production of related downstream products and export volume also changed [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory also changed [4]. - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased 6.80%, and in November, the import volume decreased 3.90%. The开工 rate of copper rod production and inventory changed [7]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production decreased 7.24%, and in November, the import volume decreased 3.22%. The开工 rates of related sectors and inventory changed [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the开工 rates of different - sized enterprises and inventory changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: In December, the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, and the import and export volumes of electrolytic aluminum changed. The开工 rates of related sectors and inventory changed [12]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased 9.38%, and the import volume increased 30.08%. The inventory changed [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia changed, and the import, export, and inventory changed [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, the production and demand of lithium carbonate changed, and the import, export, and inventory changed [17]. Inventory Change - **Tin**: SHEF inventory decreased 12.61%, social inventory decreased 12.23%, and SHEF warehouse receipts increased 34.04% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory increased 0.54%, and warehouse receipt inventory was basically stable [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon inventory increased 6.29%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased 5.53% [4]. - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased 17.20%, and SHFE inventory increased 24.22% [7]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 0.08%, and LME inventory was basically stable [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy decreased 1.41%, and the daily inventory of some regions changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased, and LME inventory decreased 0.41% [12]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased 2.43%, social inventory increased 3.61%, and LME inventory increased 0.22% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased 1.47%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 0.89% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23%, and the upstream and downstream inventories changed [17].