Core Viewpoint - Boston Fed President Susan Collins emphasizes the need for further normalization of monetary policy while maintaining a mildly restrictive stance despite potential rate cuts [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Collins identifies inflation as primarily influenced by tariffs and expresses confidence in solid growth despite challenges posed by these tariffs and uncertainty [2]. - There are concerns regarding a broad-based slowdown in hiring, which raises risks of a significant drop in labor demand and has been accompanied by notable declines in job gains and a rise in unemployment [2]. Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in two rate cuts following dovish comments from the Fed Chair regarding the outlook for interest rates and the balance sheet [3]. - There is currently a 51% probability of a third continuous rate cut anticipated in January, indicating fluctuating market sentiment on this issue [3].

1、美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，官员们可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，他承认货币市场出现了紧 缩的"一些迹象"。 2、鲍威尔说，银行储备仍然"充足"，但官员们正在密切关注各项指标，以了解何时 停止决选。 3、鲍威尔表示，自9月FOMC货币政策会议以来，通胀和就业前景似乎变化不大，不过他 强调，劳动力市场出现越来越多的疲软迹象。 4、鲍威尔说，即使在停摆期间没有政府数据的情况 下，"就业的下行风险似乎已经上升"。 5、他指出，替代数据官员审查并不能取代官方政府统计数据。 6、鲍威尔保留了10月降息的可能性，重申官员们没有轻松的选择，因为他们要在过早结束通胀斗争的 风险与太晚支持劳动力市场的危险之间取得平衡。 7、市场对鲍威尔言论的反应在美元掉期利差上表现 得最为明显，在鲍威尔暗示可能结束资产负债表缩表后，美元掉期利差扩大。鲍威尔讲话后，彭博美元 指数跌至当日低点，同时美国国债收益率下跌。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：研究表明，政策对就业和通胀产生影响的时滞更长。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the current monetary policy is in a "good position" but cannot declare the end of the rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Lagarde noted that global uncertainty has "significantly eased" since the trade agreement with the U.S., and economic growth risks are "balanced" [1] - Inflation risks are also considered "relatively balanced" [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The ECB is satisfied with the current policy stance, believing that the current interest rate level supports the 2% inflation target [1] - The ECB has cut rates eight times since last year, bringing the deposit rate down to 2% [1] - Some officials still wish to retain the possibility of further easing in case of future economic weakness leading to inflation remaining below target [1] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the Eurozone's GDP growth will reach 1.2% in 2025, slightly above previous expectations, but will slow to 1.1% in 2026 [1] - This forecast aligns closely with the ECB's own predictions, which will be updated in December [1]

北京时间10月14日晚，美股三大股指回调，纳斯达克综合指数一度跌近2%。 数据截至10月14日23:31 截至23:30左右，英特尔跌5.5%，英伟达、博通跌超3%，甲骨文、特斯拉、台积电等热门股均明显下跌。 中国金龙指数跌幅一度扩大至3%，截至发稿跌幅收窄至1.6%。小马智行跌超6%，百度跌超5%，文远知行跌超4%，阿里、京东跌约2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | | 百度集团 | 119.30 | -5.03% | | 京东集团 | 32.610 | -1.92% | | 阿里巴巴 | 163.67 | -1.88% | | 腾讯控股-ADR 80.300 | | -1.63% | | 网易 | 147.07 | -1.54% | | 比亚迪股份-AC13.393 | | -0.80% | | 拼多多 | 126.87 | -0.53% | | 小米集团-ADR 31.500 | | -0.16% | | 美团-ADR | 25.480 | 0.28% | 加密货币集体大跌，比特币跌2.25%，以太坊跌破4000美元关口。近24小时内超20.6万人爆仓， ...

记者丨叶麦穗 郑青亭 刘雪莹 编辑丨包芳鸣 和佳 江佩霞 北京时间10月14日晚，美股三大股指回调，纳斯达克综合指数一度跌近2%。 | 道琼斯 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | | 46020.86 22475.99 | 6621.64 | | -46.72 -0.10% -218.62 -0.96% -33.08 -0.50% | | 数据截至10月14日23:31 截至23:30左右，英特尔跌5.5%，英伟达、博通跌超3%，甲骨文、特斯拉、台积电等热门股均明显下 跌。 中国金龙指数跌幅一度扩大至3%，截至发稿跌幅收窄至1.6%。小马智行跌超6%，百度跌超5%，文远 知行跌超4%，阿里、京东跌约2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | | 百度集团 | 119.3C | -5.03% | | 京东集团 | 32.610 | -1.92% | | 阿里巴巴 | 163.67 | -1.88% | | 腾讯控股-ADR 80.300 | | -1.63% | | 网易 | 147.07 | -1.54% | | 比亚迪股份-AC13.393 ...

数据截至10月14日23:31 记者丨叶麦穗 郑青亭 刘雪莹 编辑丨包芳鸣 和佳 江佩霞 北京时间10月14日晚，美股三大股指回调，纳斯达克综合指数一度跌近2%。 截至23:30左右，英特尔跌5.5%，英伟达、博通跌超3%，甲骨文、特斯拉、台积电等热门股均明显下跌。 | 1小时爆仓 | $0 | 4小时爆仓 | $0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多車 | $0 | 多東 | $0 | | 空車 | $0 | 空車 | $0 | | 12小时爆仓 | $0 | 24小时爆仓 | $0 | | 念東 | $0 | 多東 | $0 | | 空車 | $0 | 空車 | $0 | 白 银 、 原 油 下 | | | 加密货币集体大跌，比特币跌2.25%，以太坊跌破4000美元关口。 近24小时内超20.6万人爆仓，爆仓金额近6.7亿美元。 | 而中 | 价格 | 价格(24h%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 日 BTC | $111350.1 | -2.25% | | ETH | $3969.19 | -3.00% | | III SOL | $196.04 | + ...

美联储理事鲍曼表示，继续预期今年年底前再降息两次。 美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）委员、纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）此前在接受《纽约时报》采访时明确表态，支持在今年内 进一步下调利率，以应对劳动力市场可能出现的急剧放缓风险。 当地时间周二（10月14日），美股三大指数集体低开，截至发稿，道指跌0.12%，纳指跌超1%，标普500指数跌0.51%。 科技股低开低走，英伟达、博通、甲骨文股价跌幅均扩大至4%，特斯拉、台积电、摩根大通等股票跌超3%。 甲骨文公司于本周一至周四在美国拉斯维加斯举办全球AI大会，预计甲骨文将在大会上推出全新的AI数据库，这家公司目前正从传统软件制造商向AI基 础设施提供商转型。 美股存储概念股开盘迅速走低，SanDisk跌近8%，西部数据跌超3%，希捷科技跌超2%。 银行股走势分化，富国银行、贝莱德涨超3%，高盛跌超4%，摩根大通跌超3%，摩根士丹利、德意志银行跌超1%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数一度跌超3%，截至发稿跌幅有所收窄。 （文章来源：证券时报） 在采访中，威廉姆斯表示："劳动力市场进一步放缓的风险是我非常关注的事情。"他详细阐述了美联储对当 ...

| | | | | Difference from July | | | Difference from April | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Projections | | 2025 WEO Update1 | | | 2025 WEO1 | | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | | World Output | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | | Advanced Economies | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | | United States | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | | Euro Area | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | | Germany | -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | ...

So on that note, let's bring in Kevin Green who joins me now for a quick look across these markets and of course what we are focusing on today. We're seeing very much riskoff sentiment in these markets, equities under pressure obviously given the back and forth we've seen between China and the US. What's your read on all of that KG.Good morning. Good morning Sam. Actually if you kind of look under the surface we already have around 56% of the stocks in the S&P 500 in the green so far.are so much so that the ...