加拿大皇家 银行资本市场驻澳大利亚和新西兰首席经济学家王素林说，美联储的政治化在最近几个月 愈演愈烈，加剧了美国较高的风险溢价，而预算赤字和债务不断上升、政府难以预测、投资者正在重新 评估美元敞口，都加剧了这种溢价。尽管库克事态发展的条件反射性反应对国债的前端收益率略有正面 影响，但如果在特朗普政府的胁迫下，美联储最终妥协，在通胀居高不下的背景下降息，这种情况将不 会持续下去。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment restricts the upside of copper prices, but the dovish Fed statement on August 22 boosted market expectations of a September rate cut, thus lifting copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate cut幅度 is uncertain. The key lies in whether the inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time shock. - Fundamentally, the supply-demand contradiction of copper remains the main line, with a tight supply situation. The copper price is expected to be range-bound in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is facing a game between short-term supply disruptions and long-term overcapacity. The price of the main contract is expected to be in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week, and short positions can be considered at high prices. - The aluminum market is under pressure from the supply-demand structure, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are showing marginal improvement, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the cost. The demand for communication die-casting has increased, while the automotive sector is still weak. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is weak, which limits the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the decline in overseas inventories provides support for prices. The short-term zinc price is expected to be volatile and stronger due to improved rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The Fed's dovish signal has pushed up tin prices. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short-selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [12]. Nickel - The macro sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support. The supply is expected to be loose, but the pace is slow. The short-term nickel price is expected to be range-adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The cost of stainless steel provides support, but the weak spot demand restricts the market. The short-term price is expected to be range-bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being realized, and the demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend. The short-term price is expected to fluctuate widely around 80,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 79,395 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%. - The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.30 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.34% to 20,780 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.40%. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.17% to 47.9 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price increased by 0.49% to 20,550 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 0.28% to 3.51 million tons [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.50% to 22,310 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.03%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.39% to 269,700 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 52 dollars/ton to 50 dollars/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.71%. - The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7,491 tons [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.58% to 121,250 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss was -1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 677 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel product production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons. - The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2.93% to 26,962 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.77% to 13,100 yuan/ton. - The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.61% to 50.45 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.67% to 82,500 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.41%. - The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [18].

道富银行东京分行经理哇卡巴亚什（Bart Wakabayashi）更直言："特朗普的所作所为，包括关税，只会不断增加美国不可信任的原因。而可 信度，这曾经是美元资产成为全球最安全投资的基础。作为一个负责任的投资者，这些足以让你停止投资美元资产。" 包括巴克莱银行、法巴银行和德意志银行在内的多家投行目前均预计美联储将在9月降息25个基点。根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具 （Fed Watch），美联储基金期货交易员预计9月降息的可能性为84%。 在美国总统特朗普"史无前例"地宣布解职美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）后，26日亚太交易时段，美元、美债齐跌，避险资产黄金、日元 上涨。 市场担心，美联储独立性将进一步受到损害。自1913年美联储成立以来，虽然美国总统偶尔会抨击其政策选择，但从未有美国总统罢免过美 联储七人理事会成员。 康奈尔大学教授普拉萨德（Eswar Prasad）称："这是一种违反美联储独立性的非同寻常的侵犯行为。特朗普现在已经对美国制度框架宣战， 而该框架支撑着美元在全球金融中的主导地位。" 当地时间25日晚，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发表公开信称，"根据《美国宪法》第二条和经修 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off in dollar assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold and yen [1][2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar depreciating against the yen by 0.4% to 147.24 and the euro appreciating by 0.3% to 1.165 [4]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a steepening of the yield curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.2887% from 4.275% at the previous close, while the 30-year yield increased by 3.3 basis points to 4.922% [4]. - U.S. stock futures declined, impacting major Asia-Pacific indices, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) down by 0.2% and the Nikkei index down by 1.3% [5]. Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Experts express that Trump's actions represent an unusual infringement on the Federal Reserve's independence, potentially undermining the credibility of the dollar as a safe investment [2][6]. - The market is adjusting its expectations for earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME FedWatch [6]. Political Reactions - The political divide is evident, with Republican Senator Rick Scott supporting Trump's actions as a means to restore trust in the Federal Reserve, while Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren condemns it as a blatant violation of the Federal Reserve Act [7].

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 多位经济学家警告，全球发达经济体或正在进入财政主导的时代。分析师表示，这意味着央行独立性遭遇侵蚀，被迫服 务于财政压力，而全球性的这种趋势可能推高通胀，引发金融风险，拖累经济增长。 所谓财政主导指的是，财政需求决定货币政策的状态。2008年全球金融危机后，主要国家进行了十数年的财政刺激政 策，再加上人口老龄化、国防支出和能源转型补贴，以及新冠疫情，这一系列因素导致多国政府的资产负债率大幅飙 升。与此同时，利率正处于多年来的高水平，加剧了偿债负担，导致各国政府希望央行放松货币政策，来应对创纪录的 主权债务。 在这些国家中，表现最为突出的无疑是美国。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普自年初再次上台以来不断施压美联储降息以配合 其宽松的财政政策，并多次威胁要解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。上个月他还表示，美联储基准利率应比目前 4.25%-4.50%的区间低3个百分点，这样每年可节省1万亿美元的利息成本。 除了发发牢骚，特朗普还将手伸进了美联储。当地时间周一他在社交媒体高调宣布，解除美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的职务"立即生效"，如果特朗普成功罢免库克，将创下美国历史先例——此前从未有在任美 ...

欧元兑美元在日线图上逼近1.1750附近的趋势线阻力，此处可能吸引空头入场，目标看向1.1575支撑 位。若成功突破，则可能开启新一轮上涨。在4小时图上，上行动能有所减弱，价格或在1.1600支撑位 与趋势线之间盘整。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.16附近，截止北京时间10:45分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1632，涨幅0.15%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1615。欧元区7月CPI数据与初值一致，整 体通胀率同比维持在2.0%，符合预期。 核心通胀环比下降0.2%，同比涨幅为2.3%，显示通胀粘性并未出现明显加速迹象。这一数据在一定程 度上缓解了市场对通胀再度抬头的担忧，也使得投资者对欧洲央行短期内进一步采取紧缩政策的预期维 持在相对温和的水平。欧洲央行行长拉加德稍早在日内瓦发表讲话，她指出，尽管近期达成的多项经贸 协议有助于稳定外部环境，但并未完全消除全球经济面临的不确定性。与此同时，她对今年第四季度的 经济增长预期作出了更为谨慎的判断，暗示欧元区可能面临一定的下行压力。不过，拉加德也同时肯 定，今年以来欧元区经济在面对多重冲击时表现出一定的韧性。总体来看，拉加德的发言姿态中 ...

长期逻辑：若9月降息最终落地，黄金中长期吸引力将增强；若通胀反弹或就业意外强劲，美联储可能维持利率不变，黄金短期将承压。 2、关键经济数据：PCE与非农成"试金石" 黄金周一（8月25日）早盘开盘后开始震荡下跌，在跌至3359附近后止跌开始震荡上涨。欧盘在3371-3362区间内反复震荡。美盘上涨3376附近后转跌，尾盘 保持慢跌走势，日线收出一根小阴线。 一、基本面 1、美联储政策：降息预期成关键变量 鲍威尔表态影响：上周五杰克逊霍尔研讨会上，美联储主席鲍威尔指出美国就业市场风险上升、通胀压力仍存，但未敲定具体政策，言论被解读为"鸽派"， 推动芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch工具显示的9月降息概率飙升至84%（一个月前为61.9%），曾支撑金价上涨；但市场后续担忧"数据若不及预期可能导致降 息推迟"，又引发谨慎回调。 周五PCE数据：作为美联储偏好的通胀指标，市场预计核心通胀率将升至2023年底以来最高点2.9%。若数据高于预期，将质疑降息紧迫性，打压金价；若低 于预期，将强化宽松预期，推动金价反弹。 后续非农数据：一周后的8月非农就业报告将进一步影响政策路径，当前美国就业市场已现走弱迹象，7月新建独栋住宅 ...

贵金属日报 2025-08-26 贵金属 沪金涨 0.13 %，报 779.92 元/克，沪银涨 0.04 %，报 9348.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.25 %， 报 3409.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.41 %，报 38.55 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.28%，美元指数报 98.44 ； 市场展望： 上周五晚间鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会的讲话显示其货币政策倾向出现重大边际转向，这标 志着新一轮降息周期的开启：就通胀问题，鲍威尔表示通胀虽然仍相对偏高，但已从疫情后的 高点大幅回落，更关键的是，鲍威尔表示"一个合理的基准情形是，关税对于价格的影响是相 对短暂的，即物价是一次性的变动"，即承认了关税对于通胀的影响并不具备持续性。对于劳 动力市场，鲍威尔表明了担忧，他认为当前劳动力市场的平衡来自于美国劳动力供给和需求的 双重放缓，而这正表明就业下行的风险在上升，并且可能将以裁员增加和失业率迅速上升的方 式呈现。关于后续的货币政策路径，鲍威尔认为联邦公开市场委员会的成员将继续根据数据及 其对经济前景和风险影响的评估来作出决定。即使鲍威尔仍表达了基于就业和通胀的货币政策 ...

鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话为下月降息扫清了道路。但业内专家警告，9月5日和11日公布的8月就业和CPI数据才是决定9月降息 的关键因素。鲍威尔持续的谨慎态度表明，非常积极的8月就业报告，或是更令人担忧的CPI数据，仍可能导致降息推迟。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上发出强烈的降息信号，但即将公布的就业和通胀数据仍可能改变9月降息的既定路径。 鲍威尔在周五的讲话中明确表示，劳动力市场面临的下行风险可能"需要调整我们的政策立场"，这为美联储结束长达八个月的暂停期铺 平了道路。美国国债和股市闻讯大涨，2年期和30年期国债收益率利差扩大至近四年来最高水平。期货市场定价暗示，目前9月降息25 个基点的概率约为75%-80%。 但多位美联储官员和华尔街经济学家警告，9月5日和11日公布的8月就业和CPI数据才是决定9月降息的关键因素。波士顿联储主席 Susan Collins公开表示"在下次会议上我们要做什么还不是板上钉钉的事"，而圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem则指出，目前通胀更 接近3%而非美联储2%的目标。 关键数据将决定降息节奏 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话为下月降息扫清了道路。他强调高借 ...

黄金行情分析： 黄金消息面解析：这波强势反弹的关键推手，正是美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行年会上的重磅讲话。鲍威尔这次表态堪称"及时雨"，不仅有效缓解了 市场对通胀的担忧，更点燃了投资者对9月降息的强烈预期。业内普遍认为，这次鸽派讲话已成为黄金市场的关键转折点，不仅推动金价反弹，还带动美元 走弱和债市调整，为贵金属创造了绝佳的宏观环境。短期我们仍需保持警惕，经济数据波动和地缘政治风险。但不可否认的是，随着降息预期的持续强化， 黄金的投资价值正在显著提升。本周市场将迎来多项重要数据：包括纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在内的多位美联储官员将发表讲话，美国7月耐用品订单、8月消 费者信心指数、二季度GDP修正值、当周初请失业金人数以及7月PCE数据都值得重点关注。 从技术面来看，上周尾盘在鲍威尔讲话的刺激下，黄金走出突破性上涨，日线大阳收高，目前稳稳站在布林中轨之上。按照常规走势，这波多头有望冲击布 林上轨高点3400，上方空间仍然可观。不过，当前金价已从高位小幅回落，并未形成绝对的强势单边行情。因此，即使本周方向明确看涨，也不宜盲目追 高，需警惕可能出现的有力回撤，甚至再次陷入震荡格局。操作上，本周需坚持多头趋势看涨的原 ...