文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：凯文·沃什：美联储主席的"第一候选人"？ 10Y美债利率快速上行，金银价格共振上涨。 当周，标普500下跌0.4%，纳指下跌0.7%；10Y美债收益率 上行6.0bp至4.24%；美元指数上涨0.2%至99.37，离岸人民币升至6.9690；布油上涨2.9%至53.76美元/桶， COMEX金、COMEX银分别上涨2.6%、12.3%。 美国TGA余额降低，美债净发行规模回落。 截至1月14日，美国TGA余额降至7771亿美元；本周（1月7 日-1月14日），美债净发行规模下降，15日滚动净发行额降至-9.23亿美元。美国2025日历年累计财政赤 字规模1.82万亿，低于2024年同期的1.91万亿美元。 美国12月核心CPI弱于预期，市场对沃什出任下届美联储主席的预期显著升温。 美国12月核心CPI环比 0.2%（0.24%），市场预期0.3%；假日消费推动下，美国11月零售销售环比0.6%，市场预期0.5%；本 周，特朗普表示希望哈塞特留在国家经济委员会（NEC）。 风险提示 5% 13.8% 4% 2.3% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side is at a major cycle inflection point. Demand is supported by interest rate cuts, and policies and replacement cycles are favorable for heavy - truck demand. However, the real estate sector is a major drag. With relatively small supply - demand contradictions and current low valuations, inflation and the capacity cycle inflection point raise the lower limit. It is predicted that the center of rubber prices will increase. It is advisable to buy at an appropriate time, with the ru operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and the short - to - medium - term support for nr at 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Also, reduce the position of the long - ru and short - nr arbitrage strategy [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - There are policy expectations for the real estate sector, which is yet to stabilize. Domestically, there is a trend against excessive competition. Abroad, the Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the capital market, but the spill - over effects of a potential US recession should be guarded against. The US aims to increase its GDP to 40 trillion US dollars by 2030, which implies an average annual nominal GDP growth rate of about 5.5% in the next five years, and inflation will provide support [6]. 3.2 Supply - The major cycle inflection point has arrived. Raw materials are prone to price increases and difficult to decline. Rubber farmers' inventories were cleared at a high level in 2024 - 2025. High prices will stimulate output with high elasticity, while low prices may lead to reduced production or hoarding. Price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather. The strength of raw materials and basis reflects the current strength, but the weak spread between latex and cup lump reflects the current weakness. Currently, the enthusiasm for rubber tapping is fair. This year, the phenology in natural rubber producing areas is average, with more rainfall and floods in southern Thailand in November, making raw materials relatively firm and the processing sector unprofitable. The global output is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is at a medium - low level relative to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber. The substitution space of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is approaching its peak [6]. 3.3 Inventory - Qingdao's inventory is around the middle level, having increased significantly compared to 2016. The inventory - to - sales ratio is not low, but considering the large increase in imports this year and the high proportion of exports from producing areas to China, the inventory is not considered high, with an overall neutral evaluation. Attention should be paid to the seasonal peak of inventory accumulation. Due to the diversion of concentrated latex and capacity issues in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, the output of full - latex is squeezed, and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high. The inventory of full - steel truck tires is lower than last year, and the inventory of semi - steel tires is at a high level with marginal destocking. Considering the market expansion, it is also evaluated as neutral [6]. 3.4 Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, a turnaround in the difficult situation will take time. Affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work, the recovery of road freight volume is difficult. It caught up with 2019 levels in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. However, heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are fluctuating weakly. Overseas markets rely more on tire replacement demand, and the Fed's interest rate cuts are conducive to stimulating demand. Rubber demand follows the macro - economy, and it is expected that global demand will grow by about 2% in 2026 [6]. 3.5 Market Data Analysis - **Price Relationship**: The basis of ru is at a multi - year high; the spread between full - latex and Thai mixed rubber is at a low level; the ru 9 - January spread is 680, stronger than last year; the nr continuous 1 - continuous 3 spread is around - 80 and weakening; the br continuous 1 - continuous 3 spread is around - 65; the spread between full - latex and 20 - type rubber has rebounded from a low level to a relatively high level in the past year; synthetic rubber Br is at a relatively low position compared to natural rubber [16][20][25]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Thai raw materials are consolidating with an upward bias. In 2025, Thai raw material prices were relatively strong compared to finished products, indicating a tightening of raw material production capacity. However, the continuous weakness of the spread between latex and cup lump suggests that supply problems are not significant [35]. - **Processing Profits**: Thai processing profits are low and still in the negative range, reflecting over - capacity in processing and tight raw materials in Thailand [40]. - **Inventory Data**: Qingdao's inventory is at a medium level, but considering imports, it is not overly high. Exchange ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts are at a medium - low level. Synthetic rubber inventory is moderately high. Full - steel truck tire inventory days are at a medium - high level in recent years, and semi - steel tire inventory days are at a high level [46][56][66]. 3.6 Supply - Side Analysis - **Production**: According to ANRPC, the cumulative global natural rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. As of October, ANRPC's production increased slightly. China's natural rubber production in the first nine months of 2025 increased by over 7%. The global production is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. The global rubber production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and ANRPC's capacity will enter a deficit mode (excluding Africa, Myanmar, and Laos). High prices stimulate output, but low prices lead to reduced production. The price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather [75][83]. - **Imports**: In 2024, rubber imports were lower than in previous years due to EU Eudr diversion, overseas restocking, and reduced arbitrage demand. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in China increased by 15% compared to the same period in 2024. Currently, the implementation of EUDR has been postponed until the end of 2026 and 2027 [86]. 3.7 Demand - Side Analysis - **Tire Industry**: In 2025, the overall operating rate of full - steel truck tires was on the rise but still low, at a low level in recent years. The current operating rate of semi - steel tires is not high. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire outer - tube production was 0.6%, with the marginal growth rate continuing to decline and significantly slower than last year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire exports as of November was 3.8%, with the growth rate also marginally decreasing, performing relatively well but still lower than last year [107][111]. - **Heavy - Trucks**: Heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Despite weak real - estate data, the trade - in policy boosts heavy - truck sales. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. Large infrastructure projects such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station are beneficial for long - term heavy - truck demand [116]. - **Passenger Cars**: Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are fluctuating weakly [119]. - **Infrastructure and Real Estate**: The real - estate sector in 2025 continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, a turnaround will take time. Cement production had negative growth last year and is marginally improving this year, but as of November, the cumulative year - on - year negative growth has deepened. Transportation investment is an important measure for stable growth. Major infrastructure projects such as large - scale hydropower and railway projects have started, opening up new space for infrastructure construction [129][133][139]. - **Freight Volume**: Road freight volume is recovering with difficulty. It caught up with 2019 levels in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. It is affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work and the substitution of railway and waterway transportation [145].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the volatility in the Chinese market is expected to drive short-term thematic growth while also indicating a long-term style shift [2][3] - The report notes that the recent cooling of inflation in the U.S. provides a moderate but not overwhelming space for the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments [3][8] - It emphasizes the potential for the Chinese market to undergo a significant long-term style shift during the release of overseas risks, alongside a continued substantial appreciation of the Renminbi [3][4] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively in the short term, with a specific focus on the storage segment due to emerging supply-demand contradictions [3][27] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in insurance, central state-owned enterprise dividends, anti-involution industries, Chinese concept internet companies, and military trade [3][4] - The report indicates that the technology sector has shown significant gains, while financial real estate and consumer sectors have experienced deeper declines [19][24] Group 3 - The report mentions that the A-share market has seen a notable performance from the Sci-Tech 50 index, which rose by 2.58%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45% [12][19] - It points out that the external capital index positions have weakened, with net short positions expanding [35][36] - Upcoming focus will be on U.S. PCE inflation data and Chinese economic indicators [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the trends of the US Treasury bond market, US macro - economic indicators, and major asset classes. It shows that the US Treasury bond yields fluctuated this week due to economic data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence. The US macro - economy shows mixed signals in different sectors, with some indicators improving while others still showing weakness. Major asset classes also have diverse performances across different regions and types [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 美债利率本周回顾 - This week (January 9 - January 16, 2026), US Treasury bond yields generally increased, with the curve rising. Except for the ultra - long - term bonds, interest rates rose significantly. In the first half of the week, yields declined due to economic data and moderate CPI. In the second half, housing sales, unemployment data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence pushed yields up again [1][11]. - After the Fed received a subpoena from Trump, Powell countered, and the Fed's tough attitude eased investors' panic. The market doesn't think Trump will substantially undermine the current Fed. Trump's "pressure" is more likely a warning for the next - term chairman. However, this move may have the opposite effect, and there are also divisions within the Republican Party [2][12]. - The 3 - year US Treasury bill auction was robust, with a bid - to - cover ratio higher than the previous value. The 10 - year and 30 - year auctions were relatively weak [17]. 3.2 美国宏观经济指标点评 - **景气指数**: In 2025, the US new home sales market showed signs of recovery, but there were regional disparities and inventory pressures. The existing home sales in December 2025 reached a three - year high. Retail sales in November 2025 rebounded, mainly driven by holiday consumption. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in January 2026 reached a new high since September last year, indicating a marginal improvement in regional manufacturing demand [3][23]. - **就业**: As of the week of January 10, 2026, the number of initial jobless claims decreased, reaching the second - lowest level in two years. However, the labor market shows a weak balance of "low lay - offs and low hiring", and the employment growth remains sluggish [24][25]. - **通胀**: In 2025, the US PPI and CPI showed different trends. The PPI was affected by energy prices and service - end price dynamics. The CPI showed a stage of stability in December 2025, with some categories' price increases slowing down and others accelerating [26]. 3.3 大类资产点评 - **债券**: German bond yields declined, while Japanese bond yields remained high due to market expectations of an interest - rate hike [4][28]. - **权益**: Asian stock markets generally strengthened, while European and American markets were under pressure [4][29]. - **大宗**: Metals and digital assets led the gains, while agricultural products and some industrial raw materials faced pressure [4][30]. - **外汇**: Asian currencies were generally under pressure, while the Russian ruble rose [4][32]. 3.4 市场跟踪 The report provides various charts to track the performance of global major economies' government bond interest rates, stock indices, commodities, and foreign exchange rates, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [33][44][51][56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant upcoming economic events and data releases that could impact global markets, focusing on U.S. inflation, geopolitical tensions, and China's economic indicators [6][7][10]. Economic Data and Events - On January 19, China will release key economic data including GDP, industrial output, and retail sales, with expectations of a 4.6% year-on-year GDP growth for Q4 [15]. - The U.S. will publish the core PCE price index on January 22, which is anticipated to show a rebound, potentially affecting market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11][12]. - Japan's central bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.75% during its meeting on January 23, amid political uncertainties [16]. Geopolitical Developments - The World Economic Forum in Davos will take place from January 19-23, with U.S. President Trump expected to address economic and geopolitical issues, which may influence market sentiment [22]. - The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a case regarding Trump's dismissal of a Federal Reserve official, which could set a precedent for presidential authority over Fed officials [29]. Corporate News and Financial Reports - Major companies such as Intel and Netflix are set to release earnings reports, which will be critical in assessing the recovery in technology hardware and streaming sectors [39]. - Walmart will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index on January 20, replacing AstraZeneca, which may impact its stock performance [41]. - Dragon Flag Technology is seeking to raise up to $2.05 billion through an IPO in Hong Kong, with shares expected to start trading on January 22 [42].

Key Points - The article discusses the recent trends in major asset classes, highlighting the rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and the concurrent increase in gold and silver prices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.24% [2][3] - The article notes a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which fell to $777.1 billion as of January 14, 2026, and a decline in net issuance of U.S. debt, with a rolling net issuance of -$9.23 million [2][62] - The U.S. December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the anticipated 0.3%. This has led to increased market speculation regarding Kevin Walsh as a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [2][84] - The article highlights that U.S. retail sales in November exceeded expectations, rising by 0.6% month-on-month, driven by significant improvements in motor vehicle sales and dining services, indicating resilience in consumer spending [2][85] - The article also mentions that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than market expectations, with 198,000 claims reported, compared to the anticipated 215,000 [2][88]

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上周国际市场风云变幻，美国司法部调查美联储主席鲍威尔引发争议，贵金属市场迎来巨震。 市场方面，美股全线回落，道指周跌0.29%，纳指周跌0.66%，标普500指数周跌0.38%。欧洲三大股指 分化，英国富时100指数周涨1.09%，德国DAX 30指数周涨0.14%，法国CAC 40指数周跌1.23%。 本周看点颇多，美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）或影响美联储降息走向。日本央行料维持政策不变，众 议院解散且提前大选的相关消息公布后，政策指引将成市场焦点。欧美经济体相关数据将考验各国经济 现状。美股财报季进入第二周，奈飞、英特尔业绩料成为焦点。 欧美经济体公布1月PMI，日本央行是否释放进一步降息信号。 美股财报季进入第二周，除了金融股以外，明星科技股开始亮相，奈飞、英特尔等业绩受到关注。此 外，强生、雅培、美国铝业、哈里伯顿等各行业龙头企业成绩单也会披露"成绩单"。 原油与黄金 尽管市场对于美国即将对伊朗采取军事行动的担忧有所缓解，但供应端风险仍是市场关注的核心，国际 油价连续第四周上涨。WTI原油周涨0.54%，报59.44美元/桶，布伦特原油近月合约周涨1.25%，报64.13 美元/桶。 下周，一年一度 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the dollar index is likely to strengthen for the third consecutive week, supported by strong U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Recent U.S. economic data shows that initial jobless claims were significantly lower than expected, indicating a resilient labor market, which has contributed to the dollar's upward momentum [2] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George emphasized the need to maintain interest rates at levels that continue to restrict the economy to further curb inflation, highlighting the Fed's independence and decentralized governance structure as institutional advantages [2] Group 2 - In the technical analysis of February gold futures, the next bullish price target for closing is to break through the strong resistance level of $4750.00, while the bearish target is to push prices below the strong support level of $4400.00 [3] - The first resistance level is identified at the historical high of $4650.50, followed by $4675.00; the first support level is at Thursday's low of $4584.50, with the next support at $4550.00 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third week of January, the decline in food prices widened, and the macro - positive factors were basically digested. The upward trends of commodity futures and spot prices narrowed. - In terms of inflation, the decline in the food price index widened, and the supporting effect of pork on the index narrowed. - In terms of exports, container shipping demand remained stable. Except for the continued increase in freight rates on the North American route, other routes showed corrections. - In terms of investment, while the prices of rebar and coal continued to rise slightly month - on - month, the decline in cement prices continued to expand, and asphalt production remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The release of incremental infrastructure demand was still mild. - In terms of real estate, due to the impact of new policies, the transactions of new and second - hand houses increased month - on - month. - For the bond market, the PMI and import - export data in December exceeded expectations, showing a year - end data sprint characteristic. The Q4 economic data to be released on the 19th is expected to be strong, with GDP likely to reach around 5%. There may be a tail - end acceleration in production in December. - The macro - policy positives around the New Year's Day holiday have been basically digested, and with stricter financing supervision, the equity and commodity markets cooled this week. Looking ahead, during the key "good start" period in January, production and investment are expected to continue to gain momentum, and the PMI at the end of the month may still rise slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of strong data on market expectations [4][37]. Summary According to the Directory Inflation - related - The decline in food prices widened. This week (January 10 - 16), the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.65% and 0.73% month - on - month respectively, with the decline expanding. - Pork prices rose moderately, with the national average wholesale price of pork increasing by 0.45% month - on - month. Fruit prices rebounded from a decline, rising by 0.7% [4][10][37]. Import - export related - Container shipping prices showed a split trend, with the CCFI index rising by 1.3% month - on - month and the SCFI index falling by 4.5% month - on - month. In response to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the cargo volume in the export container shipping market increased slightly, and the freight rates of different routes showed different trends. - Bulk shipping weakened. The BDI and CDFI indices both saw an expansion in their declines [4][15][37]. Industry - related - Coal prices continued to rise. Although the daily consumption of coastal power plants decreased after reaching a peak, the heating and replenishment demand increased, and the rigid demand for procurement in the building materials and chemical industries provided support. - The increase in rebar prices slightly expanded. Supported by phased replenishment and infrastructure project rush - work, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded, but the terminal demand has not substantially recovered. - The asphalt production rate increased month - on - month, but there were regional differences in demand. - The increase in copper prices narrowed. The continued rise was supported by factors such as loose liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks, but the increase was restricted due to factors such as the Fed's statement and volatile oil prices. - The glass futures market turned from rising to falling, and the spot inventory decreased [16][18][22]. Investment - related - The decline in cement prices expanded, with the cement price index decreasing by 1.20% week - on - week on average. The supply and demand in the national cement market were both weak, with regional differences. - The transactions of new and second - hand houses showed a slight recovery. From January 9 - 15, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities increased by 26% month - on - month and 7% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand houses increased by 17.3% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 13.4% [5][25][28]. Consumption - related - In the first week of January, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year - on - year. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales volume of the passenger car market was 328,000 units, with a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 42%. - Oil prices maintained a moderate increase. As of January 16, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.25% and 0.5% respectively month - on - month, with the increase narrowing [3][31].