格隆汇12月10日｜据每经，受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国"关键矿产"清单 等多重因素推动，白银价格12月9日强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。今年以来，白银涨幅 已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。截至发稿，现货白银报61.21美元/盎司，涨幅0.94%。作为对比， 尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银，导致金银比价降至70 倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。 中银证券认为，白银补涨弹性或优于黄金。黄金仍处于上升通道，但 当前处于加速上行后的高位震荡阶段，后续行情的催化关键在于"实际利率下行"与"美元走弱"能否形成 共振。相比之下，白银的短期确定性更强。当前处于历史高位的"金银比"蕴含着较大的修复空间，而光 伏等工业领域需求增长为银价提供了支撑，较低的库存水平使其价格短期弹性或优于黄金。 ...

12月9日晚间，黄金小幅走高，白银则攀升至历史新高。现货白银首次站上60美元/盎司的心理关口，纽 约期银也首次站上60美元/盎司，沪银主力合约现涨幅超过3%，最高涨至14086元/千克，续创历史新 高。 | 伦敦银(现货白银) CFD | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 XAG | | | | | | | | | 60.06 +1.93 +3.32% | | | | | | | | | 12-09 23:57:00 | | | | | | | | | 今开 | 58.12 | 最高 | | 60.07 | 持仓量 | | | | 振幅 57.57 | 4.30% | 最低 | | | 昨结算 | | 58.13 | | 美元指数 99.2406 +0.1418% | | | | | | | | | 分时 | 王日 | 日K | 園K | | 月K | 重零 | | | 均价:58.37 最新:60.06 +1.93 +3.32% | | | | | | | | | 60.07 | | | | | | | 3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that silver has reached a historic high of over $60 per ounce, driven by trader bets on further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and ongoing supply tightness, with a year-to-date increase of over $31 or 108% [1] - Silver's performance has significantly outpaced gold, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to 69, the lowest level since July 2021 [1] - Suki Cooper from Standard Chartered Bank notes that while silver's price momentum is supported by strong fundamentals, normalization of traditional market dynamics may lead to short-term volatility [1] Group 2 - Cooper indicates that despite some alleviation in supply chain issues, market uncertainty remains, with an increase in London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) inventories and a decrease in Chinese stocks [2] - Year-to-date, LBMA inventories have increased by 1,447 tons, while Comex inventories have risen by 4,311 tons, with most inventory still in London [2] - The short-term silver market will be driven by inflows into exchange-traded products (ETPs), which are experiencing the largest inflows since 2020, with 487 tons added in November and 475 tons in December [2] Group 3 - Cooper summarizes that while the gold-silver ratio remains above the long-term average of 65, the current level indicates silver's recent strong performance and suggests potential short-term corrections [3] - The market is expected to remain volatile, particularly with attention on the S232 critical minerals report, which may exacerbate regional market tensions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached a historic high of over $60 per ounce, driven by trader bets on further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and ongoing supply tightness, with a year-to-date increase of over $31 or 108% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite the strong upward trend in silver prices, short-term volatility may be expected due to normalization of traditional market dynamics [3] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 69, the lowest level since July 2021, indicating silver's performance has significantly outpaced that of gold [3] - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) inventory has increased by 1,447 tons year-to-date, while the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) inventory has risen by 4,311 tons, with most inventory still held in London [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The recent surge in silver prices has been driven by multiple factors, including global supply chain issues, strong industrial consumption, and renewed investor interest [3] - Although supply chain issues have eased, market uncertainty remains, with a slight decrease in U.S. inventory adding liquidity to the global market [3] - The demand for silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) has seen significant inflows, with 487 tons added in November and another 475 tons in December [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - While silver prices are expected to remain positive, a short-term correction may occur due to the current high gold-silver ratio, which suggests silver may be overbought [5] - The market is closely watching the S232 critical minerals report, which could exacerbate regional market tensions [5]

这篇经济评论分析白银暴涨背后的真相：机遇还是陷阱？2025年白银成最大黑马，半年暴涨70%！从工业需求激增到实物抢购引发供应紧张，再到金银比修 复与机构布局，五大核心动力推动银价飙升，但高波动性与工业属性也暗藏风险，投资需谨慎。 很多人晒出持仓截图，去年年底入手的白银基金，现在收益已经翻了近一倍，要知道，今年以来国际银价累计涨幅超90%，把黄金62%的涨幅远远甩在身 后，彻底摘掉了"千年老二"的帽子。 机构们也坐不住了，中银证券连发三份研报看涨白银，瑞银更是给出明确目标：2026年银价要突破60美元/盎司，这波涨势到底是机会还是陷阱？得从根上 捋清楚。 聊白银前，先讲段真真切切的历史，看完你就懂这东西有多不简单，上世纪30年代，美国大萧条正凶，银矿主们天天愁眉苦脸，银价从58美分/盎司跌到20 多美分，矿场倒闭了一批又一批。 白银疯涨刷屏：从"千年老二"到市场新宠 黄金狂飙，白银咆哮，最近的金融圈没人能绕开这俩"明星"，打开交易软件，红彤彤的涨幅刺得人眼睛发花——短短两天，COMEX白银价格一举冲破58美 元/盎司，创下历史新高。 伦敦金银市场协会的数据更惊人，从2021年中到现在，伦敦市场能自由流通的白银库 ...

今日周一(12月8日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于13548一线上方，今日开盘于13666元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报13693元/千克，上涨1.97%，最高触及13918元/千克，最低下探13470元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 目前摩根士丹利：预计美联储将于12月降息25个基点，此前的预测为不降息。预计美联储2026年1月和4 月将分别降息25个基点，最终目标区间为3.0%-3.25%。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银上周主要看涨，本周期一度到了13900高点，白银只要是向上突破，在顺势力度上就不要猜高，市 场能涨到哪里，就看到哪里。经过上周五尾盘的调整，白银目前在13660，本周下方支撑在13250附近， 周内只要维持此支撑不破，就可以顺势做多继续看涨，还是维持上周不猜顶，不做空，但如果意外跌破 13250就需要注意强弱变化。沪银主力合约参考运行区间13570-14000。 【要闻速递】 短期来看，目前美联储内部整体格局高度分裂，鲍威尔可能会在本周议息会议上鹰派降息，叠加俄乌危 机缓解，预计白银价格在短期仍可能维持区间震荡走势。供给方面，供给面紧缺叠加年末交割压力，基 本面紧 ...

智通财经获悉，当地时间12月5日，受投资者对美联储降息前景持乐观态度、白银ETF持仓增量等因素 推动，国际白银价格显著上涨。伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破每盎司59.33美元，刷新历史纪录。纽 商所白银期货价格主力合约价格当天一度逼近每盎司60美元大关，收盘报每盎司59.053美元，创历史新 高。 有分析认为，目前黄金与白银价格比约为75∶1，显著高于过去二十年约60∶1的平均水平，这表明白银在 贵金属板块中相对被低估。据悉，美国银行已将2026年白银目标价上调至每盎司65美元，美国花旗与渣 打则预测2025年第四季度至2026年第一季度，白银价格将稳定在55美元/盎司以上。 随着白银价格的走高，实物银条受到消费者热捧。12月4日，深圳水贝的白银首饰、银锭批发店铺生意 火爆。水贝白银首饰销售价格已达16.52元/克，而银锭批发价格涨至13.378元/克，创水贝银价历史新 高。水贝一家银饰批发店主表示："近期买银饰和银锭的顾客明显增多了，特别是银锭，因为没有工 费，很多顾客买了用于投资。" 紫金矿业(02899)：紫金矿业作为银、铜、锌等全球综合性矿业巨头，受益于金、铜等金属价格上涨及 锂电产业布局，长期成长性较 ...

早上好，先来看下重要消息。 年末最关键的一周来了 华泰证券预计，未来两周，国内将迎来政策超级周，重磅会议将召开。 国盛证券也称，历年中央经济工作会议多为12月上中旬召开，为来年的经济政策定调。 华泰证券预期，宏观政策有望聚焦三大主线：一是突出"开好局"，二是着力"扩内需"，三是科技"促创新"，并可能更加重视物价因素和GDP名义增速。 本周将迎来超级央行周，加拿大、澳大利亚、瑞士、巴西、秘鲁、菲律宾、南非、乌克兰、土耳其等国的央行及美联储将公布利率决议。 央行继续增持黄金 12月7日，国家外汇管理局更新了官方储备资产。统计数据显示，截至2025年11月末，黄金储备报7412万盎司（约2305.39吨），环比增加3万盎司（约0.93 吨），为连续第13个月增持黄金。 世界黄金协会表示，全球黄金ETF在11月底的总持仓量升至3932吨，连续第六个月增长。2025年新增买入超过700吨，有望创下黄金ETF历史上最大的年 度持仓增幅，而中国成为11月黄金ETF净流入的最大单一来源。 白银价格年内涨逾100%，大量资金流入白银ETF 近期，国内外白银价格再创历史新高，截至上周五收盘，伦敦银现货价格年内累计上涨101.74 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming weeks are expected to be significant for domestic policy, with a focus on economic policy direction and macroeconomic strategies, particularly in terms of demand expansion and innovation promotion [2] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, reaching 7.412 million ounces (approximately 2305.39 tons) as of November 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) [4] - Global central banks showed strong demand for gold in October, with net purchases reaching 53 tons, a 36% month-on-month increase, the highest monthly net demand of the year [4] - The total holdings of global gold ETFs rose to 3932 tons by the end of November, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth, with China being the largest single source of net inflows [4] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged over 100% year-to-date, with the London silver spot price reaching a high of $59.33 per ounce [6][11] - Significant capital inflows into silver ETFs have been observed, with the total inflow in just four trading days reaching the highest weekly total since July [7] - The COMEX silver futures inventory has decreased significantly, dropping over 2300 tons in two months, with registered warehouse receipts at historical lows [12] Group 3: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts indicate that the current surge in silver prices is driven by tightening supply in the physical market, with expectations of further price increases supported by low inventory levels and industrial demand growth [11][12] - The silver-gold ratio has fallen to around 72, indicating a shift in market risk preference, with silver outperforming gold in the current bull market [12] - Short-term volatility in silver prices is anticipated, with strong support due to low inventory levels, making significant price declines less likely [13] - The long-term outlook for silver remains bullish, driven by its strategic importance in the energy transition and expected supply shortages in industrial applications [13][14]