1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price is in a high - level oscillation this week, while the silver price has skyrocketed continuously, and the gold - silver ratio at a high level has rapidly corrected. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline in the short term, and investors should focus on the opportunity for silver to catch up in price. The market's expectation for the non - farm data is weak, and investors are advised to pay attention to the possibility of data exceeding expectations and conduct risk management in advance. [9][11] - The short - term trend of precious metals is oscillating with a slight upward bias, showing a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The medium - term trend is a high - level oscillation, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Property Analysis 3.1.1. Safe - haven Attribute - The safe - haven sentiment during Trump's trade war has been realized. The leaders of China and the United States had a phone call, agreeing to hold a new round of talks as soon as possible and extend mutual visit invitations. However, there are still risks of escalation in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, etc. [4] - The United States was downgraded by Moody's, completely leaving the top - tier AAA credit rating club. The demand for the $16 billion 20 - year bonds auctioned by the US Treasury was weak due to investors' concerns about the increasing US debt burden. The US debt scale has exceeded $36 trillion, and the deteriorating fiscal situation has intensified the market's doubts about the US dollar credit system. [4] 3.1.2. Monetary Attribute - The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the overall employment data has weakened. The market has reignited the expectation of an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. After the number of layoffs and the ADP employment data, the latest number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a seven - month high, and the import decline in April set a record. [5] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally returned to the central bank's 2% target. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to stabilize its next interest rate cut until September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. [5] 3.1.3. Commodity Attribute - Although the consumption of gold jewelry is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offsets some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, which keeps the central bank's gold purchase demand at a high level. [5] - The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound from a low level, and the continuous appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic precious metal prices. The easing of the trade war is expected to promote the recovery of silver's industrial demand. [5] 3.1.4. Capital Flow - Recently, the CFTC managed funds have continuously reduced their net long positions in gold and continuously increased their net long positions in silver. In the domestic market, the net long positions in Shanghai gold have continuously increased, and the net long positions in Shanghai silver have remained at a high level. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions. [7] 3.2. Review of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Path from 2024 - 2025 - In 2024/5/1, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of reducing the balance sheet from June 1st, and still expected inflation to decline gradually over time. [13] - In 2024/6/12, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate policy unchanged, and the updated dot - plot significantly reduced the expected number of interest rate cuts for the year. [13] - In 2024/7/31, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in reducing inflation, and indicated that an interest rate cut might be an option in September. [13] - In 2024/9/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in subsequent years. [14] - In 2024/11/7, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation". [14] - In 2024/12/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot showed that it was expected to cut interest rates only twice by the end of 2025. [14] - In 2025/1/29, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since September 2024, and the policy statement removed the expression about "inflation making progress towards the target". [14] - In 2025/3/20, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, planned to slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction from April 1st, and significantly lowered the economic growth forecast for 2025 while raising the inflation forecast. [14] - In 2025/5/7, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, stating that the uncertainty of the economic outlook had further increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation had both increased. [14] 3.3. Support and Resistance Levels - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 755 - 760, and the resistance level is 790 - 800. [9] - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8400 - 8430, and the resistance level is 9500 - 9530. [9]

新京报贝壳财经讯（记者朱玥怡）随着现货白银价格创下13年来新高，6月6日，有色金属板块走强，多 只白银概念股大涨，白银有色（601212.SH）、盛达资源（000603.SZ）、湖南白银（002716.SZ）涨 停，兴业银锡（000426.SZ）涨8.21%。 此轮白银涨势原因几何？后续会否复制黄金涨势？ "今天主要从事白银业务的公司股价普遍都有比较大的涨幅，应该是受白银期货和现货价格上涨联动效 应的影响。"6月6日，上市公司湖南白银的证券部工作人员向贝壳财经记者表示，此轮股价上涨更多是 有助于增强投资者信心，对公司业绩的实际影响并不大。 广发期货分析师叶倩宁认为，避险和工业属性驱动白银大涨。中美领导人通话缓和贸易冲突并加快谈判 进程使工业制造业乐观情绪增加，在光伏"抢装"和提前备库的情况下相关光伏新能源行业生产有望维持 高增长，欧洲各国的宽松财政和货币政策提振工业和投资需求，伦敦现货和中国等地区库存维持低位， 白银突破34.8美元的去年高位阻力后在资金的驱动下价格更具弹性，短期有望持续走高至38美元/盎司 附近。 编辑 岳彩周 校对 卢茜 国泰君安期货市场分析师张驰宁认为，此轮白银涨势背后核心的动力很可能来 ...

"白银处于2012年以来的最高水平，这当然引人关注，但白银是出了名的反复无常，它完全有能力暴涨 暴跌，"O'Connell说。"这不一定是一次虚假突破，但它现在已经严重超买，当白银出现这种情况时， 应一如既往地谨慎对待。" 根据道琼斯市场数据，Comex 7月交割的白银期货周四收于每盎司35.81美元，这是主力合约自2012年2 月28日以来的最高收盘价。今年迄今，白银价格已累计上涨约22%。 Sprott Asset Management的高级投资组合经理兼首席投资官Maria Smirnova在周四表示："这次突破已经 酝酿了一段时间，因为白银在近几个月曾数次尝试突破35美元大关，所以这次成功意义重大。如果这次 技术性突破能催化实物投资者的买盘，那么白银价格可能很快被推得更高，白银市场交投清淡，不需要 太大的购买活动就能推高价格。" 在白银价格飙升的同时，黄金价格在当天的交易中却录得下跌。不过，黄金今年迄今近28%的涨幅仍然 超过了白银。 然而，金银比已降至94附近。BullionVault研究总监Adrian Ash指出，与黄金在4月底触及当前历史高点 3500美元时所见的后疫情时期高点（超过100）相 ...

Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index saw reduced trading volume. Silver concept stocks surged, with companies like Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous hitting the daily limit. Computing power concept stocks continued to rebound, with Huamai Technology and Nanling Technology also reaching the limit. Agricultural chemical stocks remained strong, with Su Li Co., Mei Bang Co., and Changqing Co. hitting the daily limit. In contrast, stablecoin concept stocks faced adjustments, with Xiongdi Technology dropping over 10% [1]. Silver Sector - The silver sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhongrun Resources and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit. Comex July silver futures rose by 4% to $36.03 per ounce, reaching a peak of $36.27, the highest level since February 2012. Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by 42%, while silver's rise was approximately 15%, indicating a lag [4][5]. - The gold-silver ratio, which measures the price relationship between gold and silver, suggests that silver may be undervalued when the ratio approaches its upper historical range [5]. - From late May, silver's upward momentum has been building, with expectations that the gold-silver ratio may revert to pre-tariff levels. The demand for industrial silver is projected to rise due to the growth in photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, with silver usage in hybrid and electric vehicles increasing by 21% and 71%, respectively [6]. Agricultural Chemicals - The computing power sector remained active, with Su Li Co. achieving two consecutive daily limits, and other companies like Mei Bang Co. and Changqing Co. also hitting the limit. A recent explosion at a chemical plant in Shandong related to the production of chlorantraniliprole intermediates has raised concerns [7][9]. - The explosion is expected to lead to price increases for intermediates like K-amine, and stricter regulations on nitration processes in the agricultural chemical industry. The industry is gradually returning to rationality, with high-priced inventory being depleted and procurement demand recovering, although supply-side pressures persist [9]. Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector showed strong performance, with companies like Dexin Technology and Jinying Co. hitting the daily limit. The market for solid-state batteries is projected to open up by 2030, with significant demand for solid electrolytes and lithium sulfide, indicating a market space exceeding 210 billion yuan [10][12]. - The development of solid-state batteries is expected to drive significant demand for lithium sulfide, with upstream production capacity facing notable shortages, which could hinder cost reductions [12].

基本面： 周五（6月6日）亚市早盘，现货白银窄幅震荡，美联储政策与通胀风险的博弈特朗普降息呼声与美联储的谨慎态度特朗普近期多次公开呼吁美联储主席鲍威 尔降低借贷成本，称高利率阻碍了经济增长。然而，美联储内部对降息的态度分歧明显。美联储理事库格勒和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德均表示，当前通胀风 险高于劳动力市场放缓的风险，倾向于维持当前4.25%-4.50%的政策利率不变。施密德尤其担忧关税可能重新点燃通胀，价格上涨压力或在未来数月显现。 相比之下，美联储主席鲍威尔则强调就业与通胀风险并存，主张在数据驱动下保持政策灵活性。 通胀预期与黄金的吸引力市场对未来通胀的预期正在升温。五年期和十年期美国通胀保值债券（TIPS）盈亏平衡收益率分别报2.332%和2.298%，表明市场 预计未来十年平均年通胀率约为2.3%。与此同时，5月消费者物价指数（CPI）预计将显示通胀加速，部分源于关税效应的显现。在通胀压力下，黄金作为 抗通胀资产的吸引力可能进一步增强，尤其是在美联储若推迟降息的情况下，低利率环境将为金价提供支撑。 白银与金银比的异军突起白银价格创13年新高与黄金的回落形成对比，现货白银周四跳涨3.3%，报35.61美元， ...

Group 1 - The rapid contraction of the gold-silver ratio may not be sustainable, with market volatility driven by tariff negotiations and bond market changes [1] - The gold-silver ratio has significantly adjusted, potentially influenced by the recent US-China leaders' call, but the ultimate trend may be more related to liquidity conditions [2] - Short-term drivers for gold and silver are unclear, with geopolitical risks and US tariff policies affecting market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The recent rise in precious metals is supported by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements in the overall metals market, with strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China [4] - Market expectations for at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have been bolstered by an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims [4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations remains, with potential for increased safe-haven demand for gold if substantial progress is not made [3]

一、行情 三、机构解读 1）金银比是指黄金与白银的价格比值，是衡量白银相对黄金价格高低的重要指标之一。当金银比靠近其长期运行的 区间上沿时，往往意味着银价相对黄金被低估。 自5月下旬开始，随着铂钯的试探性补涨，白银的上涨动能逐渐累积。短线突破式拉涨动能较大，金银比可能回落至 对等关税前的平台。（中信期货） 2）随着光伏、新能源汽车与环氧乙烷催化剂行业持续发展，工业用银消耗量将作为白银需求上升的核心动力持续增 长；银浆是光伏电池制作中不可缺少的辅料，混动汽车与纯电汽车的单位白银用量较传统汽车分别提升了21%和 71%。 6月6日，白银期现货大涨，带动A股湖南白银、白银有色等涨停。 | 股票名称 | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = | 涨停时间 = | 换手率 = | 流通市值 = | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 湖南白银 002716.SZ | 3.89 | +9.89% | 09:35:21 | 6.03% | 85.99 7, | | 白银有色 | 3.19 | +10.00% | 09:48:59 | 2.64% | 236.21亿 | | 601212.S ...

金银比现报95.41，为4月3日以来新低。 ...

端午假期期间，受美元走弱、地缘冲突加剧和美国关税政策反复等因素影响，外盘贵金属市场率先掀起 一波避险潮。6月3日国内期市开盘后，沪金、沪银延续端午节前的强势表现，其中沪银期货主力合约尤 为亮眼，单日大幅上涨2.85%，至8456元／千克，涨幅显著超越沪金，领涨贵金属板块。 贵金属避险属性凸显 当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。欧盟称若谈判未果， 针对美国的反制措施最迟将于7月14日生效；日本则明确表示无意在关税问题上让步；中美贸易摩擦可 能升级，美方指控中方违反日内瓦经贸会谈共识，中国商务部回应称，美方新增AI芯片管制、EDA软 件禁售等措施严重破坏既有协议。 当前，金银比仍维持在100左右的历史高位，反映出相对于黄金价格，白银价格或被显著低估。从资产 配置逻辑来看，避险情绪主导的黄金价格阶段性上涨结束后，资金往往转向估值更低、价格弹性更高的 白银以捕捉补涨机会。美联储政策分歧加剧美元指数波动，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比暗示15个月内可能 大幅降息，低利率预期进一步推动资 ...

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 根据巴塞尔协议III（Basel III），从今年2025年7月1号开始，美国银行所持有的实金可被视为其 储备需求中的一级资产，相当于现金和美国国债——这个是绝对利好金价的信号——连玩财技玩 金融最厉害的美国，也不得不承认黄金的可靠性跟现金和国债一模一样。这意味着，将来更多基 金会视黄金为比国债和美元更稳健的定海神针。预期美国银行或会有新一轮买金条热潮。 至周五(29号)的金价/北美金矿股比率为 17.11X，较22号的17.39X跌1.6%，今年累跌10.6%。2024 年累升16.5%。2023年全年累积上升了13.2% (2022年+6.4%)，代表矿业股最少连续两年回报跑输 实金。且看今年金矿股票能否有突破。 LSEG Workspace用户可 ...