Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [5] Core Insights - The report discusses how a civilian prediction indicator has become an "invisible driver" of asset prices, particularly in the steel and commodity sectors. It highlights the strong correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and various asset markets, including commodities, bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating this prediction indicator with traditional economic data and policy interest rate curves for more comprehensive asset allocation [6][10] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The steel industry has shown a performance of -1.9% over the last month, -8.7% over the last three months, and 7.6% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has seen -0.4%, -3.3%, and 9.4% respectively [4] Asset Linkage Commodity Market - The report notes a significant rise in silver prices and a strong synchronization between the gold-silver ratio and the "U.S. recession expectation." It suggests that when recession probabilities decrease, silver, which has more industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [12] - The report also mentions that the crude oil VIX has shown a close correlation with the "U.S. recession expectation," indicating that market predictions of oil price volatility are influenced by recession expectations [12] Bond Market - The report indicates that when the "U.S. recession expectation" rises, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tends to weaken, although recent trends show some divergence. The 10-2 year yield spread has shown a complex relationship with recession probabilities [15] Stock Market - The report highlights a strong negative correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and the S&P 500 index, suggesting that rising recession expectations directly impact corporate profit outlooks [21] - It also notes that the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 ratio has not returned to early-year highs despite a temporary decline in recession expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about long-term corporate profitability due to tariff policies [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The report states that the U.S. dollar index has mostly moved inversely to the "U.S. recession expectation," although a gap has emerged since May, potentially linked to U.S. fiscal risks and trade policy uncertainties [22] - The report also mentions that the USD/JPY exchange rate tends to weaken when recession expectations rise, indicating a flight to the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset [22]

黄金险守3380支撑，避险光环为何失效？白银赶超破37关口，金银比又现大幅波动；市场开始定价战争 模式，点阵图博弈再添变数，鲍威尔立场已提前透露风向，资金即将提前入场布局>> 相关链接 ...

根据世界白银协会的预测，2025年全球白银仍呈短缺格局， 短缺幅度约达3660吨，基本面或为银价提供较强支撑。业内 人士认为，本轮"金银比"趋势收敛或由白银补涨完成，当前白 银基本面及货币环境有望对银价上涨形成共振驱动，白银价格 中枢有望逐步抬升。 作者：邹永勤 封图：图虫创意 白银一贯的"贵金属配角"形象，似乎正在发生变化。 根据万得数据，在2025年4月22日至6月16日期间，国内白银期货大涨8.37%，以8858元/千克报收，并在6月份多次刷新该品种上市以来的新高；同 期，黄金期货却下跌了4.71%，以792.30元/克报收。 外盘期货亦走出了"银强金弱"的格局。4月22日至6月16日，COMEX白银期货上涨了11.42%，报36.39美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货下跌了0.75%，报 3385.40美元/盎司。 白银虽然在历史上曾经与黄金一样是重要的天然货币，但由于其金融属性不如黄金，因此价格走势往往跟随黄金而动。 此番金银"强弱 互换 "的背后， 究竟发生了什么？ 银饰消费并未火爆 位于深圳市罗湖区的水贝，由于集聚了上万家黄金珠宝企业，是全国贵金属行业的风向标。6月16日，经济观察报记者来到了水贝进 ...

机构人士分析，逆全球化、去美元化的浪潮下，美元美债维持弱势，黄金上行的长线趋势不变，这为白银的贵 金属属性提供了强有力的支撑。4月下旬开始美国关税政策趋于缓和后，三季度全球市场可能会走经济回升的 逻辑。白银得益于其工业属性，在经济回升且金银比值高位的背景下或持续补涨。 白银基本面支撑上涨 白银的基本面确实处于比较好的状态中。白银的工业属性是下游需求的重要来源。白银具有优良的导电导热 性、延展性、较高的感光性，因此成为重要的工业金属。2020年之后，全球光伏新能源技术的发展推动了白银 需求的快速上行。2021至2023年，白银总需求上升约9540万盎司，其中工业需求上升9310万盎司，贡献增量的 约97.6%。 世界白银协会发布的《2025全球白银调查》数据显示，2024年全球白银总供应量为10.15亿盎司，其中一次矿 山生产供应量占比为81%；2024年全球白银总需求量为11.64亿盎司，其中工业需求为6.81亿盎司，占比达 58.5%，主要集中在电子电气（光伏）、钎焊合金和焊料等领域。 平安证券指出，全球白银2016—2024年供应总量CAGR达-0.5%。2024年全球矿产银总供给中伴生矿产量占比 约72 ...

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年06月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：地缘政治主导金价 白银：金银比重新回升 07 锡：价格修复，供给再出扰动 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 02 03 铜：基本面现实海外偏强，但宏观存不确定性，价格持续震荡 铝：本周走势偏强，现实仍不弱，且交易因素助推 氧化铝：短期横盘，波动收敛，重心略小幅下移 04 铸造 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver is experiencing a resurgence as a valuable asset, driven by its dual role as a safe-haven investment and an essential industrial material, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty [1][4][8] Group 1: Investment Dynamics - Silver prices have surged over 20% in 2025, with domestic market funds increasing from 18 billion to 39 billion yuan, indicating a strong inflow of capital [1][2] - The price of silver has reached historical highs, with the Shanghai silver futures contract hitting 8,855 yuan per kilogram and international silver futures rising to $37.03 per ounce, marking a 23% increase year-to-date [2][3] - Institutional investors are beginning to allocate more to silver, as evidenced by the increase in silver ETF holdings, although the current allocation remains low compared to gold [7] Group 2: Industrial Demand - Over 50% of silver demand is now driven by industrial applications, a figure expected to rise to 56% by 2025, with the solar energy sector being a significant contributor [4][5] - The growth of the photovoltaic industry is projected to create a demand of 66,000 tons of silver in 2025, driven by the increased use of silver in solar panels [4][5] - Emerging technologies such as 5G, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence are further increasing silver consumption, with electric vehicles using significantly more silver than traditional vehicles [5] Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply of silver is facing challenges, with slow growth in global silver mining output and declining ore grades, leading to a projected shortfall of 117.6 million ounces in 2025 [5] - The low recovery rate of silver, particularly from electronic products, exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, contributing to rising prices [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Historical trends suggest that silver performs best during early economic recovery and rising inflation, conditions that are currently present [6] - The silver-to-gold price ratio remains high at around 90, indicating potential for silver to catch up in price relative to gold [6] - Long-term investment value in silver is supported by its financial attributes and industrial demand, suggesting that its upward trajectory may continue [7][8]

Group 1 - The metal market has shown significant divergence since the beginning of 2025, with gold rising due to a weaker dollar and increased risk aversion, while silver has recently shown signs of catching up. Prices of copper and aluminum remain resilient, whereas domestic-priced new energy products and the black metal sector have seen declines exceeding 10% [3][18]. - The gold-to-copper ratio is a crucial indicator of the relative value between gold and copper, reflecting changes in global economic cycles, inflation expectations, and risk appetite. Historically, this ratio surged during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, indicating that gold acts as a safe-haven asset while copper represents risk assets [5][18]. - The gold-to-silver ratio, currently above 90, indicates that silver is still undervalued relative to gold. This ratio reflects market risk appetite, economic cycle positioning, and inflation expectations [6][7][19]. Group 2 - Since 2021, the annual average price of copper has continued to rise, maintaining above 77,000 yuan per ton in 2025. The relatively low inventory levels of copper and aluminum indicate a strong fundamental backdrop for non-ferrous metals, contributing to price resilience [9][19]. - The current supply-demand structure of non-ferrous products differs from that of 2018, with recent years showing lower inventory levels, which supports the overall strength of the non-ferrous sector [13].

Group 1 - The metal market has shown significant divergence since the beginning of 2025, with gold rising due to a weaker dollar and risk aversion, while silver has recently shown a rebound, and copper and aluminum prices remain resilient. In contrast, domestically priced new energy products and the black metal sector have seen a decline of over 10% [5][19]. - The gold-to-copper ratio is a crucial indicator of the relative value between gold and copper, reflecting changes in global economic cycles, inflation expectations, and risk appetite. Gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset, while copper represents risk assets, serving as a barometer for global economic conditions [7][19]. - Historical trends show that during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, the gold-to-copper ratio surged due to falling copper prices and stable gold prices. When inflation rises and market risk appetite increases, the ratio tends to decrease, as seen in 2021 during economic recovery [20][21]. Group 2 - Since 2021, the annual average price of copper has continued to rise, maintaining above 77,000 yuan per ton in 2025, indicating a strong fundamental backdrop for non-ferrous metals. The relatively low inventory levels of copper and aluminum reflect this strength, contributing to price resilience [22]. - The current gold-to-silver ratio exceeds 90, suggesting that silver remains undervalued relative to gold, indicating potential investment opportunities in silver [3][21].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **Hong Kong market**, and **real estate sector**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Situation**: The worst period regarding tariffs may have passed, with significant market recovery observed post the worst week in April. The speaker believes that Trump's tariff strategies will not fundamentally alter global trade dynamics [1][2][3]. 2. **Consumer and Real Estate Support**: The Chinese economy requires support for consumers and the real estate sector, which are seen as needing more assistance compared to other sectors. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less disruptive in the coming months [2][3]. 3. **Hong Kong Market Performance**: Hong Kong's stock market has shown strong performance, with many newly listed stocks doubling in value. The influx of capital into Hong Kong is noted as a positive trend for the market [3][4]. 4. **Liquidity in Hong Kong**: There is a significant increase in liquidity in the Hong Kong market, with daily trading volumes recovering to levels around 600 billion HKD, compared to previous lows during the pandemic [6][7]. 5. **Real Estate Recovery**: The speaker anticipates a stabilization and potential rebound in Hong Kong's real estate prices, which have declined over the past few years. The current low-interest rates and increased liquidity are expected to support this recovery [9][10][19]. 6. **Market Dynamics**: The discussion highlights the importance of liquidity and market activity in attracting investors to Hong Kong. The speaker emphasizes that a vibrant market can lead to better price discovery and trading opportunities [6][7]. 7. **Stability of Stablecoins**: The role of stablecoins in facilitating cross-border payments is discussed, noting their growing transaction volumes compared to traditional payment systems like Visa and Mastercard [10][11]. 8. **US Debt Concerns**: The US government faces significant cash flow challenges due to high debt servicing costs, which could impact its financial stability. The discussion suggests that tariffs and other measures may not effectively resolve these issues [12][13]. 9. **Silver Market Outlook**: There is a bullish outlook on silver prices, with expectations that they will rise significantly due to market dynamics and the demand from the renewable energy sector [14][15][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the market is shifting positively, with increased investor confidence leading to a potential rise in housing prices and stock market activity [19][20]. 2. **Philosophical Views on Pricing Power**: The discussion touches on the philosophical aspects of pricing power in the market, suggesting that control over pricing is not solely determined by liquidity but also by the nature of the stocks and their trading volumes [8][9]. 3. **Impact of Talent Migration**: The influx of talent from mainland China to Hong Kong is influencing wage dynamics and work culture, which may have long-term implications for the local economy and housing market [18][19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [83]. Core Insights - The supply of silver is gradually becoming rigid, with a downward trend in total supply from 2016 to 2024, showing a CAGR of -0.5%. The average cash cost of silver production is expected to rise, with a CAGR of 14.6% from 2018 to 2024 [2][9][21]. - Industrial demand for silver is expected to continue growing, with a projected increase of 3.6% in 2024. The photovoltaic sector is identified as the primary growth driver for industrial demand [2][34][38]. - The price of silver is anticipated to rise due to its industrial properties, with a gradual convergence of the gold-silver ratio expected as economic conditions improve [2][71][73]. Supply Summary - The global silver supply is projected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, reflecting a 1.7% increase year-on-year. The supply structure indicates that mined silver accounts for 80.8% of total supply, with by-product mining contributing significantly [9][15][48]. - The average cash cost of silver production is expected to reach $7.64 per ounce in 2024, with total production costs also on the rise [21][25]. Demand Summary - Industrial demand for silver is projected to account for about 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant contributions from the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to see a 2.6% increase in demand [34][38]. - Jewelry demand is expected to remain stable, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024, particularly driven by demand from South Asia [42][46]. Price Summary - The silver price is expected to gradually increase, supported by the industrial demand and a favorable monetary environment. The current high gold-silver ratio is likely to trend downwards as silver prices rise [71][73]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated rise in silver prices and demand [80].