Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline over the previous four months [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily influenced by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [1] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months, indicating stronger underlying inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month decline of 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, while some industry prices showed signs of stabilization [2] - The decline in PPI was attributed to seasonal decreases in domestic raw material manufacturing prices and a drop in energy prices due to increased green electricity [2] - Prices for automobiles, photovoltaics, and durable consumer goods experienced a narrowing year-on-year decline, supported by policies aimed at promoting consumption [2]

2025 年 07 月 10 日 铅：预期支撑 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17175 | 0.09% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2044 | 0.32% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 33005 | -2644 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5358 | 1103 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 52261 | 644 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 149090 | -579 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -55 | -15 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -23.04 | 2.27 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -55 | 0 | 进口升贴水（美 | 105 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - In June, the year-on-year CPI turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month consecutive decline. The core CPI year-on-year increase of 0.7% reached a 14-month high. The CPI as a whole presented the characteristics of "energy drag, food differentiation, and dual drivers of industrial products and services". The risks of pork overcapacity and the transmission of PPI industrial deflation to the consumer side need to be vigilant. [3] - In June, the year-on-year decline of PPI widened to 3.6%, and the month-on-month decline was 0.4%. The PPI presented the characteristics of "deepening drag from weak domestic demand, intensified differentiation between old and new driving forces, and effective policy support". Attention should be paid to the marginal improvement effects of high-tech production capacity release and infrastructure investment on raw material demand. [3] Summary According to the Directory 6-month CPI Recovery and PPI Pressure PPI - The year-on-year decline of PPI widened. In June 2025, PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (compared to -3.3% in May), and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month. The purchase price decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. The cumulative PPI decline in the first half of the year was 2.8%. [7] - The supply and demand of energy and raw materials became more relaxed. The prices of coal mining and washing, coal processing, and power and heat supply industries decreased. The prices of black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products industries decreased, with the month-on-month decline widening. [7] - Export-dependent industries were under pressure. The prices of export-related industries such as computer and communication equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery manufacturing, and textile industries declined. [7] - The international input pressure was adjusted. Although the domestic gasoline price turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month due to the rebound of international oil prices in June, there was still lagging pressure in the energy and chemical industry chain. The price of gold jewelry increased year-on-year, partially offsetting the downward pressure on energy. [7] - Some areas showed positive marginal changes. High-tech manufacturing industries showed enhanced resilience, and the demand for consumption and equipment manufacturing was released. The price of means of subsistence stabilized. [8] - The PPI data in June highlighted three characteristics: weakening of domestic demand seasonally, deepening differentiation between old and new driving forces, and initial effectiveness of policy transmission. [9][17] - In the future, attention should be paid to the disturbances of external geopolitics to the supply chains of crude oil and non-ferrous metals, the progress of internal high-tech industry production capacity release, and the pulling effect of infrastructure investment on raw material demand. [10] CPI - The CPI turned from a decline to an increase. In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year (compared to -0.1% in May), ending a four-month consecutive decline. The core CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, reaching a new high in nearly 14 months. [21] - The decline of food prices narrowed but still dragged down the CPI. The prices of fruits and aquatic products increased, while the prices of pork and eggs decreased. [21] - The drag of energy weakened, and the price turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month. The price of gasoline increased month-on-month, driving the energy price to turn from a decline to an increase. [21] - The service price increased steadily, and the policy effect was prominent. The service price increased by 0.5% in June. Affected by the "trade-in" policy, the prices of cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods, household textiles, and household appliances increased. The price decline of automobiles narrowed. [23] - The CPI in June highlighted the following characteristics: the turning of the CPI to an increase marked the emergence of a short-term inflection point, but the recovery foundation was still unstable. The core CPI continued to rise, the drag of industrial products weakened, and the resilience of service consumption was strengthened. Attention should be paid to the risks that the continuous weakness of food prices may suppress the recovery of rural consumption, and the lagging effect of the transmission to CPI under the pressure of industrial demand. [23] Appendix: CPI and PPI Data for June 2025 - In June 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month. The prices of food and consumer goods decreased, while the prices of non-food and services increased. [36] - In June, the prices of food and tobacco increased by 0.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.3% month-on-month. Other seven major categories of prices showed six increases and one decrease year-on-year and three increases, two stabilizations, and two decreases month-on-month. [37][38] - In June 2025, the ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. [38] - In June, among the ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the prices of means of production and means of subsistence decreased. Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the prices of most categories decreased, while the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased. [40][41] National Bureau of Statistics Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan's Interpretation of June 2025 CPI and PPI Data - The CPI increased year-on-year after a decline, and the core CPI continued to rise. The increase of CPI year-on-year was mainly affected by the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The decline of food prices narrowed slightly, and the service price increased steadily. The core CPI reached a new high in nearly 14 months. The CPI decreased month-on-month, with the decline narrowing. The decline of food prices was less than the seasonal level, the price of industrial consumer goods turned from a decline to an increase, and the service price increased steadily. [43][44][45] - The month-on-month decline of PPI was the same as last month, and the prices of some industries showed a trend of stabilization and recovery. The reasons for the decline of PPI month-on-month included the seasonal decline of domestic raw material manufacturing prices, the decline of energy prices driven by the increase of green electricity, and the pressure on the prices of some export-oriented industries. With the implementation of various macro policies, the prices of some industries showed a trend of stabilization and recovery due to the promotion of the construction of a unified national market, the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, and the accumulation of new driving forces. [46][47][48]

Macro and Strategy Research - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from decline to increase year-on-year, with a smaller month-on-month decline. Key features include a limited drop in food prices due to high temperatures and increased rainfall, a rise in energy-related CPI driven by international oil price increases, and a notable rise in some industrial consumer goods prices, such as platinum jewelry and home appliances due to pre-"618" promotional activities [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw an expanded year-on-year decline in June 2025, with month-on-month performance remaining weak. This is attributed to seasonal price declines in domestic raw materials, increased green energy leading to lower coal prices, and pressure on prices in export-heavy industries due to slowing global trade growth [3][4] Financial Engineering Research - During the week of July 2 to July 8, 2025, major A-share indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.54%. The margin trading balance reached 1,859.01 billion yuan, an increase of 10.32 billion yuan from the previous week, with a notable rise in financing balances [5][6] - The sectors with the highest net buying in margin trading included power equipment, computers, and public utilities, while banking, steel, and construction decoration sectors saw less net buying [6] Industry Research - In June 2025, the average working hours for major engineering machinery products was 77.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.11%. However, sales of excavators and loaders increased by 13.3% and 11.3% year-on-year, respectively [8][9] - A recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam involves a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, which is expected to influence the export chain dynamics [9][10] - The machinery equipment industry maintained a "positive" rating, with recommendations to "overweight" stocks such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and China CNR Corporation [10]

Group 1 - Emperor International has incurred a significant debt of HKD 16.6 billion, with loans now overdue [1] - The company reported a substantial loss exceeding HKD 4 billion last year [1] - Emperor International operates across multiple sectors including entertainment, real estate, jewelry, finance, and hospitality, with seven listed companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 2 - China's average economic growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is projected to reach 5.5% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates that China's economic increment over five years will exceed CNY 35 trillion, contributing around 30% to global economic growth annually [2] - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [2] Group 3 - The Chinese automotive market saw retail sales of 10.9 million passenger vehicles in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [4] - New energy vehicles accounted for 5.468 million units sold, driving significant growth in the market [4] Group 4 - The National Development Bank signed a CNY 2.1 billion loan agreement with the Southern African Development Bank to support infrastructure and other projects in Africa [6] - Several banks have reduced their operating loan interest rates to 3% or below, focusing on small and micro enterprises [7]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - China's June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing a four-month decline, exceeding market expectations[4] - The month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, but the decline was narrower than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points[6] - Industrial consumer goods prices stabilized and contributed to the CPI increase, with a reduction in the downward impact on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - China's June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The PPI's further decline reflects accumulated supply-side pressures and weak demand[23] - Upstream industrial prices faced significant pressure, with mining industry prices dropping by 13.2% year-on-year[27] Group 3: Price Trends - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, marking a 14-month high, supported by resilient service prices[20] - Energy prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous downward trend, influenced by geopolitical factors[16] - Food prices decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, but the decline was smaller than seasonal expectations by 0.5 percentage points[14]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 755 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan on the same day due to 985 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [2] - The overnight pledged repo rate slightly increased to 1.31%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate rose to 1.47% [4] - The yield on major interbank bonds mostly increased, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's June CPI rose by 0.1%, marking a turnaround after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [13] - The June PPI fell by 3.6%, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%, influenced by seasonal price drops in raw materials and increased green energy supply [13] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - The central government plans to issue 60 billion yuan of government bonds in Macau on July 16 [16] - The National Development Bank will auction up to 38 billion yuan of fixed-rate bonds on July 10 [16] - A series of negative credit events were reported for various companies, indicating a trend of downgrades in credit ratings [16]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, rising by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high [1] - The decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1% to 0.5%, contributing less to the CPI's downward pressure [1] Group 2: Price Movements and Influences - Prices for gold and platinum jewelry rose significantly, by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase [1] - Entertainment durable goods, household textiles, and household appliances saw price increases of 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% year-on-year in June [1] - The price decline for fuel and new energy vehicles slowed, with decreases of 3.4% and 2.5%, the smallest in nearly 28 and 26 months respectively [1] Group 3: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting a worsening trend [3] - Seasonal price declines in raw materials and increased green energy contributed to the PPI's downward movement [3] - The global trade environment and reduced demand have pressured prices in export-oriented industries [3] Group 4: Policy Impacts and Market Dynamics - Macro policies are being implemented to improve supply-demand relationships, leading to price stabilization in certain sectors [4] - The construction of a unified national market is helping to narrow the year-on-year price declines in some industries [4] - Consumer-related policies are being strengthened, leading to a rebound in prices for daily necessities and clothing [4]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high [1][2] - The increase in CPI is attributed to the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, which saw a narrowing decline from 1.0% to 0.5% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year [1][2] - The decline in PPI is influenced by seasonal price drops in certain raw materials and the impact of high temperatures and rainfall on construction projects [2][3] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting pressures in export-oriented industries [3] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - Experts suggest that macroeconomic policies should continue to promote domestic demand and improve supply-demand relationships to facilitate a reasonable price recovery [4] - The implementation of consumption-boosting measures, such as trade-in programs, is expected to support price levels in the second half of the year [4] - The potential for service consumption growth is anticipated to positively impact prices in sectors like dining, accommodation, and cultural tourism [4]

金十数据7月10日讯，最新公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，美联储工作人员在上次会议上指出，CPI仍 在一定程度上偏高。失业率继续保持低位，劳动力市场状况稳固。现有指标显示，第二季度实际GDP正 稳步增长。根据CPI和PPI，5月份总消费者物价通胀——用PCE的12个月变化来衡量估计为2.3%。核心 PCE 5月为2.6%，总通胀率和核心通胀率都低于年初水平。基于调查的短期通胀预期指标仍然很高，大 多数基于调查的长期通胀预期指标保持稳定。 美联储会议纪要：CPI仍在一定程度上偏高 劳动市场状况稳固 ...