Group 1: Core CPI and Price Trends - The core CPI increased by 1% year-on-year in September, marking the first return to this level in 19 months and the fifth consecutive month of growth [1] - The overall CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with food prices contributing significantly to this increase, particularly fresh vegetables, eggs, and meat [1] - Seasonal factors and holiday demand have driven up prices in certain categories, such as vegetables, which saw a price increase from 2.58 yuan/kg in August to 3.32 yuan/kg in September [1] Group 2: PPI and Market Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a positive trend [3] - The reduction in PPI decline is attributed to improved macroeconomic policies and the ongoing development of a unified national market [3] - Certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, have shown signs of price stabilization, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% month-on-month [3] Group 3: New Economic Drivers and Consumption Upgrades - Emerging industries are thriving, with new consumption patterns and business models contributing to positive price changes [4] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a shift towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, leading to increased market demand and price growth in specific sectors, such as aircraft manufacturing [4] - Consumer demand is transitioning from quantity to quality, with significant price increases in sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional foods [5]

Inflation Data Summary - September CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of -0.1% and previous value of -0.4%[2] - Month-on-month CPI growth was 0.1%, compared to 0% in the previous month[2] - September PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, an improvement from -2.9% previously and above the expected -2.4%[5] Price Movement Insights - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase[3] - Year-on-year, food prices fell by 4.4%, impacting CPI by about 0.83 percentage points[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to 1% growth in 19 months[4] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter's asset performance will largely depend on risk appetite, with a potential shift from technology growth stocks to low-volatility dividend stocks[1] - A gradual decline in risk appetite is anticipated post-APEC, particularly after November[1] - Bond yields are expected to decrease in Q4 due to weakening fundamentals and potential monetary easing[1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a decrease in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, indicating potential economic recovery and price stabilization [1][10]. CPI Analysis - In September, the national CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with urban areas down 0.2% and rural areas down 0.5% [4][6]. - Food prices fell by 4.4%, while non-food prices increased by 0.7%, contributing to the overall CPI decline [4][7]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the first return to this level in 19 months and indicating a continuous expansion for five consecutive months [7][9]. - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, with urban prices stable and rural prices rising by 0.2% [8][10]. PPI Analysis - The PPI for September showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [10][12]. - The industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [10][12]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to a low comparison base from the previous year and the positive effects of macroeconomic policies [12][13]. Sector-Specific Insights - Certain industries, such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, experienced a reduction in price decline, contributing to the overall narrowing of PPI [13]. - The modernization of the industrial system and the release of consumer potential have led to price increases in sectors like aircraft manufacturing and electronic materials [13]. - The article anticipates that the PPI decline will first widen and then narrow in 2025, influenced by ongoing market competition improvements [14].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a reverse repurchase operation of 600 billion yuan to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of six months [1] - In September, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to August [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase and the first return to 1% in nearly 19 months [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of the year, China's manufacturing sector benefited from tax reductions and refunds amounting to nearly 1.3 trillion yuan [1]

在化债等政策的托举以及相关产业支持下，政府部门和企业部 门的资产负债表得到了一定的改善，但目前居民部门在房价缩 水的状态下，依然面临着资产与负债两方面的较大压力。 作者： 田进 封图：图虫创意 10月15日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，9月CPI（全国居民消费价格指数）同比下降0.3%，降幅比上月 收窄0.1个百分点。1—9月平均，全国居民消费价格比上年同期下降0.1%。 短期看，食品价格波动成为影响9月CPI走势的重要因素。9月，食品价格同比下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大 0.1个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.83个百分点。 值得注意的是，9月扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大，为近19个月以 来涨幅首次回到1%，上一次核心CPI同比增速在1%以上为2024年2月。 远东资信首席宏观研究员张林表示，在化债等政策的托举以及相关产业支持下，政府部门和企业部门的资 产负债表得到了一定的改善，但目前居民部门在房价缩水的状态下，依然面临着资产与负债两方面的较大 压力。 为进一步提升市场需求，张林表示，去年"9·24"一揽子新政以来，股票市场好转显著，但股票与基金等资 产占居民总资产的比 ...

Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI for January to September showed a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first time in 19 months that it returned to above 1% [1] Food Prices - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year in September, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Cumulative food price change for the first nine months was -1.8%, while non-food items saw a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - Significant declines in specific food items included pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), eggs (-13.5%), and fresh fruits (-4.2%) in September [2] Gold Prices - In contrast, gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - International gold prices increased from approximately $3,500 per ounce at the beginning of September to nearly $3,800 per ounce by the end of the month [3] - Gold investment demand remained strong, with sales of gold bars and coins experiencing a 44% year-on-year increase in the second quarter [3][4] Market Demand and Economic Policy - The low CPI indicates a persistent issue of oversupply in the macroeconomic landscape, necessitating increased counter-cyclical policy measures [2][5] - The government aims for a CPI growth target of around 2% for the year, the lowest since 2004 [5] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence [5][6]

事件 ：10月15日，国家统计局公布9月通胀数据，CPI同比-0.3%、前值-0.4%、市场预期-0.1%、环比 0.1%；PPI同比-2.3%、前值-2.9%、市场预期-2.4%、环比0%。 核心观点：大宗涨价提振上游PPI，黄金与家电价格走高对中下游CPI也有较大拉动。 线索一：9月PPI改善，主因大宗价格延续上涨，但主要是受反内卷影响较小的铜价大幅上涨。 9月PPI环 比0%。从影响因素看，国内大宗商品中，9月以来铜价再度出现回涨（环比2.1%），对应有色采选、有 色压延业CPI环比分别2.5%、1.2%，拉动PPI环比0.1%，为主要贡献项。煤价也继续上涨，对应煤价拉动 PPI环比0.1%。但中下游产能利用率偏低导致中下游价格无法充分反映上游涨价传导，测算该因素拖累 PPI环比-0.1%。 线索二：整体CPI偏低主因食品价格拖累，核心CPI涨幅仍在扩大，结构上黄金价格的拉动作用持续增 强。 9月CPI环比0.1%，不及2017年来均值（0.4%）；其中核心CPI同比上行至1.1%，结构上源于核心商 品CPI（同比+0.5pct至1.4%）。其中金价对核心商品CPI提振较强，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别 ...

CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, a slight improvement from the previous month's -0.4% and better than the market expectation of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.9% in the previous month, driven by increases in prices of gold and durable goods[3] - Food prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, primarily due to falling pork prices, which dropped by 0.7% month-on-month[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.3% in September from 2.9% in August, slightly better than the market expectation of -2.4%[2] - The PPI remained stable month-on-month at 0% for two consecutive months, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[6] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries showed price stabilization, contributing to the reduced PPI decline[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter as the impact of last year's high base fades and food price pressures diminish[8] - The PPI is anticipated to continue its upward trend, but the improvement may be limited due to weakening demand and ongoing international oil price declines[8] - The seasonal demand for pork may support prices, potentially leading to a price turning point by mid-next year if breeding stock continues to decrease[8]

评论： 通胀数据快评 PPI 环比连续两个月为 0 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月15日 事项： 10 月 15 日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 9 月 CPI 同比-0.3%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.4%；环比 0.1%， 预期 0.2%，前值 0%。中国 9 月 PPI 同比下降 2.3%，预期下降 2.3%，前值下降 2.9%；环比继续持平。 国内价格改善迹象延续。从本期数据来看，海外通胀仍对国内价格改善起到一定支撑作用，例如 PPI 当中 偏海外定 ...

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1] - The decline in year-on-year CPI is attributed mainly to base effects, while the month-on-month increase is driven by rising international gold prices and the implementation of consumer stimulus policies [1] - There is a significant possibility of a positive CPI in October, according to analysts [1]