周五（6月13日）欧市盘中，COMEX黄金价格上涨，截至目前报3440.20美元/盎司，涨幅0.99%，今日 开盘于3406.70美元/盎司，最高上探3467.00美元/盎司，最低触及3399.60美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 【COMEX黄金行情解析】 短线来看，COMEX黄金价格上涨，目前交投于3440.20美元/盎司，涨幅0.99%，最高上探3467.00美元/ 盎司，最低触及3399.60美元/盎司。今日上方阻力位为3480-3490，下方支撑位为3300-3310. 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 在避险需求的推动下，美元指数周五显著走高，一度上涨0.54%，至98.39，成功从2022年3月以来的低 点反弹。美元作为全球主要的避险货币之一，在地缘政治风险升温时往往受到追捧。然而，尽管日内表 现强劲，美元指数本周整体仍录得近1%的跌幅，为三周以来的最大周线跌幅。这种矛盾的表现反映了 市场在短期避险需求与长期经济预期之间的复杂博弈。 其他避险货币如日元和瑞士法郎在周五早盘一度上涨约0.5%，但随后走势趋于平稳。与此同时，与风 险情绪高度正相关的澳元和纽元则成为美元的"受害者"，一度分别下跌约1%。欧元 ...

Core Insights - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged due to geopolitical risks, particularly from ongoing conflicts, which are driving short-term price volatility [1] Group 1 - The increase in geopolitical tensions is identified as a short-term catalyst for rising gold prices [1] - There is speculation about potential opportunities for long positions in gold amidst the current market fluctuations [1]

从技术面看，美元对日元汇率本周多次冲高未能有效站稳145.00关口，短线进入震荡调整格局。当前支 撑重点关注142.65与142.35区间，若失守，下方或下探至142.00甚至141.65，再下一级支撑位于140.90- 141.00区间。 反弹方向上，若美元兑日元能突破143.50-143.55初步压力区，短线或有望挑战144.00与144.50，强势突 破后才有可能重新测试145.00及本周高点145.45水平。 周五（6月13日）亚洲时段，美元/日元抹去跌幅重新站上143.50，重新站上143.00关口，扭转了早些时 候跌至142.80的走势，最新美元兑日元汇率报143.5080，涨幅0.04%。随着中东地缘政治紧张局势升 级，全球风险情绪受到打击，这刺激了对美元的避险需求，抵消了日元的避险地位，使得该货币对迅速 回升。 据知情人士透露，日本央行官员认为，物价上涨幅度略高于今年早些时候的预期，这一因素可能为讨论 是否在全球贸易紧张局势缓解的情况下加息打开了大门。知情人士说，官员们预计，在下周为期两天的 会议结束时，日本央行的基准利率将维持在0.5%不变，因为他们需要监测全球关税谈判的进展及其对 经济的影 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant gains in the oil and natural gas sector, with notable stocks such as Keli Co. rising by 26%, Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit, and potential gains in other companies like Huaneng Gas and Beiken Energy [1] - Gold-related stocks also performed well, with Cuihua Jewelry reaching the daily limit and West Gold nearing the limit, alongside other companies showing gains [1] ETF Performance - Major ETFs in the oil and gas sector experienced substantial increases, with the Jiashi Fund's S&P Oil & Gas ETF rising by 7.68% and the Fuguo Fund's version increasing by 7.45% [3] - Other ETFs, including the Energy Chemical ETF and Oil & Gas Resource ETF, also showed positive performance, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [3] Geopolitical Impact - The geopolitical situation escalated with Israel's attacks on Iran, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude increasing over 9% to $75.76 per barrel, marking a new high since April [5] - Gold prices also surged, with spot gold rising by 1.5% to over $3430 per ounce, the highest since May [5] Oil and Gold Market Dynamics - The Israeli military's actions against Iran are expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while rising geopolitical tensions are likely to keep oil prices strong [7] - The recent increase in oil prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over oil production safety in the Middle East [7] ETF Composition and Characteristics - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF tracks the S&P Oil & Gas Upstream Stocks Total Return Index, which includes a diverse range of companies primarily focused on upstream oil and gas development [9][11] - The index consists of 53 components, employing an equal-weighted methodology that favors smaller companies, thus presenting a higher risk-reward profile compared to market-cap weighted indices [11]

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国 5 月份通胀增速低于市场预期提振美联储降息预期并打压美元指数，且 消息称以色列正积极准备攻击伊朗而美国也撤回部分驻中东外交军事人员，抗通 胀需求与避险需求推动伦敦黄金上涨至 3350 美元/盎司上方；6 月上旬投机资金 大举做多涨幅显著落后于黄金的白银，伦敦白银一度涨至 36.9 美元/盎司而年内 银价涨幅也超越金价，我们判断纯粹资金推动的银价飙升行情难以持续，建议投 资者关注白银动能衰减后的多黄金空白银套利策略。特朗普 2.0 新政推动 ...

金十数据6月12日讯，分析师David Morrison表示，受地缘政治紧张局势升温和美元走软影响，黄金期货 上涨。随着特朗普总统重新提起普遍的关税威胁和美伊核谈判的斗争，黄金受益于避险需求。与此同 时，在消费者价格指数低于预期之后，美元再次面临抛售压力。在此之前，关税的不确定性进一步加 剧，投资者不愿持有美国国债，这有利于黄金的避险吸引力。 美元走弱，避险需求增加，黄金期货上涨， ...

今日周四（6月12日）欧盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3499.73美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报 3370.86美元/盎司，上涨0.47%，最高触及3377.50美元/盎司，最低下探3351.38美元/盎司，目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 市场共识是报告期内下降0.1%。 与此同时，服务业指数（4月）为0.6%3个月/3月，而3月为0.7%。 来自英国的其他数据显示，4月份工业和制造业生产月度分别下降0.6%和0.9%。这两个数据均低于市场 预期。 【要闻速递】 英国国家统计局（ONS）周四发布的最新数据显示，英国经济在4月份收缩，国内生产总值（GDP）下 降0.3%，而3月份增长了0.2%。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 日线当前macd死叉缩量粘合放平于零轴，灵动指标sto勾头向上修复代表价格的震荡偏强。而目前支撑 在均线MA5和MA10附近对应3344-3337一线，其次是中轨3319-3309一线。根据前期的日线看目前上方 阻力在3382-88一线。 4小时指标macd金叉放量运行，灵动指标sto勾头向上修复，代表目前的震荡偏强走势。而4小时目前属 于涨势，所以下方均线支撑暂时不用考虑，那么防守就 ...

周二，金融市场情绪分化，美国通胀数据略低于预期之际，中东地区地缘政治风险升温，令投资者信心 受挫。 通胀回落与美伊紧张局势升级的交织，导致避险资金流、能源市场与债券收益率等多资产类别出现"拉 锯战"。 美国5月CPI略显温和 美国5月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，略高于4月的2.3%，符合市场预期。核心CPI同比维持 在2.8%，月率增长仅为0.1%，均低于市场预期。 尽管通胀仍处于相对高位，但持续的通缩趋势被市场解读为积极信号——尤其是此前担忧关税冲击的影 响并未如预期严重显现。 "当前整体和核心通胀维持稳定，即便在关税背景下，也为美联储提供了更多操作空间，并可能为年内 降息打开大门。"——Ultima Markets 高级分析师 Shawn 表示。 CME FedWatch显示9月FOMC会议降息概率达到61.6%，较一个月前的41%大幅上升。 美伊紧张局势再起 另一方面，美国与伊朗的紧张关系于周三加剧。美国已下令部分撤离驻伊拉克、巴林和科威特大使馆人 员，理由是来自伊朗支持势力的安全威胁上升。 技术面分析：布伦特原油（UKOUSD） 布伦特原油强势突破两个月高点，重返69美元上方，逼近70美 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected inflation data in the US in May boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, causing the gold price to break through 3360 in the short term. The market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 77 bps in the next year and 48 bps by December [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions continue to support the safe-haven demand for gold. Geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, as well as the "Liberation Day" tariff issue and Sino-US trade negotiations, have pushed some safe-haven funds into gold [2]. - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [32, 35] [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - In May, the US CPI annual rate was 2.4% (expected 2.5%, previous value 2.3%); the monthly rate was 0.1% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.2%). The core CPI annual rate was 2.8% (expected 2.9%, previous value 2.8%); the monthly rate was 0.1% (expected 0.3%, previous value 0.2%) [1]. - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that coercive trade policies cannot solve financial imbalances, and all parties need to weigh policy adjustments to resolve tensions [1]. - Sino-US economic and trade consultations in London reached a trade framework agreement, aiming to resolve trade disputes over rare earths and magnets [1][2]. Price Logic - The lower-than-expected inflation data in the US in May increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, which was the main reason for the short - term rise in the gold price [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions continued to support the safe - haven demand for gold, with some safe - haven funds flowing into gold on Wednesday [2]. Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [32, 35] [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the favorable conditions for gold prices due to lower-than-expected US CPI data, potential Fed rate cuts, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][5] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices show a resistance level at 3360, with potential support around 3358 and further down at 3345, indicating a volatile trading environment [2][4] - The domestic gold market has seen significant price movements, with Shanghai gold reaching a high of 789 and expectations for further increases, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold investments [5] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests entering long positions when gold prices drop to the 3340-3340 USD range, with a stop-loss set below 3320 USD and a target of 3370-3380 USD [4] - For short positions, a recommendation is made to enter at 3370 USD with a stop-loss above 3390 USD and a target of 3340 USD, indicating a tactical approach to trading [4] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic data, such as the PPI, and Fed policy decisions, as well as ongoing geopolitical developments, to inform trading strategies [1][2]