行业板块 和题材表现上， 银行股新高，电力冲高回落，消费、地产 等权重板块 领跌 拖累指 数表现，其中 银行股强势 ， 工商银行、建设银行、江苏银行、成都 银行 等创历史新高，显 示资金避险情绪升温，高股息策略受青睐。电力板块 则 冲高回落 ， 华银电力（ 3连板）、 华电辽能（2连板）涨停，但西昌电力炸板回落， 说明电力板块开始分化， 板块持续性存疑。 二、 4 月末业绩线过渡，预计 5 月科技成长为主回归 一、 行情复盘：指数缩量调整，银行股逆势新高，题材轮动乏力 今天 大盘缩 量震荡，三大指数全天弱势震荡，沪指跌 0.2% ， 深成指跌 0.62%，创业板指 跌0.65%，市场成交额1.06万亿（较前一日缩量572亿），显示 节前整体 资金观望情绪浓 厚。 同时由于财报季尾声，更多个股暴雷甚至 ST出现，近4000家 个股 下 跌，近百股跌超 9%， 同时涨停和跌停都达到 40家， 市场亏钱效应明显，短线情绪低迷。 会议刺激政策没超预期， 消费、地产 板块 重挫 ， 食品饮料、零售（有友食品、贝因美、国 光连锁跌停） 等 全线调整 （除了少部分业绩优秀的个股，比如珀莱雅 2连板） ；房地产受 政策预期降 ...

能源化工 乙二醇日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 乙二醇近期供需矛盾不大，库存回升压制反弹高度 一、日度市场总结 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 上周五，乙二醇华东现货价格4205元/吨，较前一日下跌60元 /吨。主力合约收盘 4179 元/吨，较前一交易下跌 1.67%。基差为 41 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓 解。WTI原油主力收63.17美元/桶，布油收65.83美元/桶。供给端， 内蒙古中化学30万吨装置重启推迟至4月中旬，此前该装置于3月23 日附近停车。上海石化38万吨装置预计4月底重启，此前主产环氧。 新疆一套40万吨装置因故于3月20日停车，初步预计7月份重启。沙 特一套70万吨装置计划于4月中前后开始停车检修，预计检修两个 月左右。上海石化38万吨产能预计4月份重启，镇海炼化原计划3月 底重启，现推迟至年底，陕西榆林化学有两条线计划4月份检修。 乐天美国70万吨产能计划4月份检修，马 ...

能源化工 聚酯日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 成本端支撑走强带动聚酯原料偏强运行，关注需求端边际变化 1. PX & PTA 上周五，PX 主力合约 PX2509 收 6230 元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 1.04%，基差为-297 元/吨。PTA 主力合约 PTA2509 收 4400 元/吨，较前 一交易日上涨 0.69%,基差为 80 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓解。 WTI 原油主力收 63.17 美元/桶，布油收 65.83 美元/桶。供应端，PX：中 海油惠州 150 万吨 3 月 29 日检修 50 天左右，扬子石化重整检修至 5 月 上旬，PX 有降负预期，天津石化 PX 计划 6-7 月份检修，海南炼化计划 4- 5 月检修，浙石化 250 万吨装置已重启，盛虹炼化 400 万吨原计划 4 月检 修，目前推迟至 5 月。PX 国内装置开工率为 73.2%，亚洲开工率为 68.6%。 PTA：台化兴业 150 万吨计划 5 月 6 日检修，逸盛大连 225 万吨计划 4 月 26 日检修 6 周，另 375 万吨 4 月 2 ...

Core Insights - The current trade war is more intense than in 2018, but market risk appetite is higher due to improved domestic manufacturing capabilities, the resolution of real estate bubbles, the systemic collapse of the traditional international order led by the US, and government efforts to stabilize the stock market [1][8][10][13]. Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting in April made several important deployments, but overall expectations were not met. The government retains significant policy space to address future uncertainties due to the lack of immediate economic pressures [1][16][17]. Market Sentiment - The stock market should not be viewed pessimistically; there is a structural focus on two ends: stable dividend and ROE stocks as natural hedges in uncertain environments, and opportunities in industries related to self-sufficiency and supply chain security [2][18]. Government Policy - The government is actively maintaining stock market stability, with the central bank indicating support for stock index funds and state-owned enterprises engaging in buybacks to bolster market confidence [13][18]. Trade Dynamics - The trade war has led to a significant decoupling between China and the US, with tariffs of 145% from the US and 125% from China impacting trade flows. However, China's manufacturing and supply chain stability have improved, allowing it to become a global leader in several sectors [8][9]. Real Estate and Financial Sector - The real estate bubble has been effectively addressed, with financial services now focusing on supporting the real economy. The financial sector has moved away from speculative practices, leading to a more stable economic environment [9][10]. International Monetary System - The traditional international order led by the US is facing systemic challenges, with the credibility of the dollar diminishing due to high internal debt and a retreat from globalization. This has resulted in increased volatility in dollar assets and a shift of capital towards non-US markets [10][12]. Future Economic Outlook - The government emphasizes stabilizing employment and consumption, with policies aimed at supporting vulnerable groups affected by tariffs. The focus is on enhancing service consumption and improving income for lower and middle-income groups [17][18].

特朗普关税战火烧身？中国稀土铁幕震动全球，四国专机连夜抵京暗藏玄机 一、关税战局突变：特朗普服软喊话，中国反手甩出"稀土王炸" 关税战火最先烧穿的，是美国自己的裤裆。英特尔总部大楼里，CEO基辛格看着暴跌30%的财报直冒冷汗，10.89万员工里超2.2万人即将被裁—— 这数字够填满25个鸟巢体育馆！要知道，这可是半导体行业的"老大哥"，连它都跪了，其他科技公司还怎么玩？ 华尔街分析师算过一笔账：每增加10%关税，美国消费者就要多掏700亿美元。现在超市货架上的中国制造越来越少，取而代之的是墨西哥产的"山 寨货"和越南造的"半成品"。纽约布鲁克林区的家庭主妇们抱怨："以前20美元能买一整套厨具，现在连个平底锅都涨价到35美元！" 民主党这时候跳出来补刀了。加州州长纽森直接放话要起诉特朗普，理由是"滥用关税损害州权"。这操作堪称教科书级"背刺"——毕竟民主党心里 门儿清，中国手里攥着全球制造业的"七寸"，其他国家才不会跟着美国瞎折腾。 三、全球站队时刻：80国力挺中国，四国专机连夜扎堆北京 "145%的关税确实太高了。"当特朗普在镜头前挤出这句"示弱"时，全球贸易战观察家们都惊掉了下巴——这位以强硬著称的总统，居 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Executive of the Macao SAR, Ho Iat Seng, emphasizes that the primary challenge facing the current government is the relatively singular economic structure, and the government is implementing various measures to promote moderate economic diversification [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Diversification Measures - The Macao SAR government plans to enhance government efficiency, optimize the business environment, advance the construction of the Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone, and undertake major engineering projects to address the issue of a singular economic structure [3]. - Hengqin is highlighted as a key area for breaking through the challenges of moderate economic diversification, aiming to provide more job opportunities and living spaces for Macao citizens while opening up economic and commercial development spaces for the business community [3]. Group 2: Youth Engagement and Opportunities - The Chief Executive encourages Macao youth to step out of their comfort zones, engage with Hengqin, and embrace the Greater Bay Area, emphasizing the importance of broadening their horizons and utilizing their skills in the evolving economic landscape [5]. Group 3: Trade and External Influences - Macao's annual export trade is approximately 13 billion Macao Patacas, with exports to the United States around 300 million Macao Patacas, primarily consisting of clothing and souvenirs, indicating a low dependency on the U.S. market [7]. - Although the trade war has not directly impacted Macao, the global consumer power shift poses a risk, prompting the government to explore new overseas markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East while accelerating the development of a world tourism and leisure center [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of various factors such as trade wars, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and geopolitical risks on the gold market, emphasizing the need for real-time analysis of gold order flows [1] Group 1 - Multiple factors including trade wars and interest rate cuts are creating a complex environment for the gold market [1] - The article suggests that there is a need for strategic positioning in gold amidst these market dynamics [1] - Real-time analysis is being conducted to assess the current trends in gold orders [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of the pig market continues to put pressure on pig prices, but the decline in the first quarter was weaker than expected. The second quarter will continue to focus on supply pressure, and there is a risk of compression in pig prices and breeding profits [3][4]. - Policy support for the corn market is nearing its end, and in the fourth quarter, it will be tested whether downstream consumption can support prices [5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global oilseed and fat market first rose and then fell, with the domestic market outperforming the international market. The second quarter will continue to be troubled by trade uncertainties, and attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents First Part: Factors Affecting the Pig Market in the Second Quarter - Pig prices in the first quarter were stronger than expected, but supply pressure still exists. The terminal demand entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and pig prices oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - Affected by the change in the mentality of the breeding side, the price of piglets first rose, then fell, and then rose again in the first quarter [3]. - The inventory of breeding sows decreased for two consecutive months. If this trend continues, the supply pressure in the second half of the year will be substantially improved [3]. - In the first quarter, the slaughter weight of pigs first decreased and then increased. The import volume of pork decreased as domestic pig prices were at a low level [3][4]. - The breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, while that of purchasing piglets increased. The slaughter opening rate was higher than the same period last year, but it was not driven by the increase in terminal demand [4]. - In the futures market, pig prices stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply pressure of increased inventory will continue to affect spot pig prices and long - term trading sentiment [4]. Second Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Corn Market - From January to March, the prices of US wheat and corn first rose and then fell. Affected by weather, policy, and other factors, the CBOT grain futures prices declined jointly [5]. - The spot price of domestic corn rose with the futures price. By the end of March, the average domestic corn spot price increased by 163 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of January. After mid - March, due to multiple negative factors, the futures and spot prices of corn fell back [5]. - The 5 - month contract of corn oscillated repeatedly at the 2300 - yuan integer mark, and the market was worried about the lack of upward space in the future. Pay attention to the price performance of the 5 - month corn futures price at the previous support level of 2260 [6]. - The supply of new - season corn is expected to increase, and the inventory in the quarterly report at the end of March decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period. The ratio of US soybeans to corn is at a low level, which is conducive to the expansion of corn planting area [15][29][39]. - Affected by policies and other factors, the import of corn and its substitutes decreased in 2025, which increased the consumption of domestic corn. In the second quarter, the problem of limited supply of imported corn and substitutes will still appear periodically [52]. - In early April, the average price of wheat in the main producing areas decreased. The price of wheat followed the rise of corn in March and continued to oscillate weakly in April. The supply of wheat was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand was weak [55]. - In mid - April, the operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased, and the processing in Shandong was in a state of loss. The contradiction in the starch market was prominent, and the support from the demand side was insufficient [56]. Third Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Soybean Meal Market - The global oilseed and fat trade pattern has changed. Brazil supplies soybeans to China, the EU, etc., the US supplies soybeans to other regions, and Canadian rapeseed competes for the US soybean market [105]. - China's pig industry has strong demand for replenishment, which increases the demand for feed. The price is strong in stages, and the supply pressure is postponed [112]. - From January to February 2025, the feed output increased year - on - year, and the consumption of soybean meal also increased [116]. - The inventory of soybeans in China showed an inflection point in April, but the soybean procurement of oil mills from June to September was slow [119]. - The spot basis of soybean meal weakened, and the inter - month spread changed from backwardation to contango [121]. Fourth Part: Outlook for the Future Market - In the second quarter, pay attention to tariffs and weather for the US corn market. The policy support of CGC is nearing its end, and it will be tested whether downstream demand can accept high - priced raw materials [66][68]. - Russia's corn production has decreased, and the toxin content in domestic corn is high. The CBOT corn has emerged from the trough. In the future, Sino - US relations will determine the country of import and the rhythm [70]. - In the first quarter, the price of US corn rebounded to the profit range. The market expects an increase in the sown area of new - season corn, and the area will be confirmed in June [77]. - In the first quarter, the spot price of corn rebounded, and the futures price followed. The basis of the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts returned to normal. In the second quarter, the market will speculate on the sowing and cost changes of new - season grain [84]. - In 2024, the cost of corn planting decreased by 15 - 20%. The market expects the cost of corn planting in the new year to decrease by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [90]. - The by - products of starch rose and fell alternately. In 2024, the spread between starch and corn mainly widened. In 2025, pay attention to starch exports and the substitution of tapioca starch [97]. - In 2024, the supply of corn exceeded demand, and the price declined all the way. In 2025, it remains to be seen whether the strengthening of supply and demand can drive the price to rise continuously [102].

在美国掀起关税战的背景下，围绕如何稳定东亚区域经济增长，郑永年提出了三点建议： 第一，东盟应保持团结协作。东盟一直是促进亚洲区域稳定发展的重要力量，但当前由于美国所谓"对 等关税"，东盟再次面临挑战，因为其中许多经济体的发展都以出口导向为主。如果东盟内部出现分 裂，那么东盟的经济发展将会受到重大影响，也不利于本地区的稳定； 第二，无论是中国还是东盟都应保持开放。东亚经济体都应该采取开放的政策来推动本国的工业化进 程。在此过程中，作为世界第二大经济体，中国在推动该东亚经济繁荣发展中发挥着重要作用，一个开 放的中国市场本身就是一个理想的全球经济发展行动。中国致力于推动高水平开放，坚持多边主义，并 将继续加强其全面战略伙伴关系，推进与东盟关系的发展。有鉴于此，建立"中国—东盟共同市场"将有 利于双方共同推动东亚经济一体化，并且发挥东亚地区的增长潜力。在此方面，中国与东盟有条件继续 深化合作，比如在投资、技术以及供应链方面。 第三，中国和东盟也应为世界多边主义的发展提供更多解决方案，并建立一个公正且包容的国际秩序。 这需要产业界以及学界为推动建立"中国—东盟共同市场"提供更多可行的措施建议。 21世纪经济报道记者洪晓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In April, the market rebounded from the bottom. Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly, with different performance among various indices. The US tariff war, though temporarily halted, may recur due to its underlying financial issues. Attention should be paid to the growth indicators in the A - share annual and quarterly reports, and the long - term trend of A - shares is mainly affected by the de - leveraging process of various sectors under the debt cycle. Also, capital expenditure and profitability of domestic and foreign demand - related sectors need to be monitored [3][6]. - The equity risk premium is at a relatively high historical level. Short - term funds support the stock market, but market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the momentum of both fund inflows and market sentiment has weakened weekly [3][9][18]. - Sectors with high overseas revenue are more sensitive to tariff policies as most of them are in the development stage with high capital expenditure and low ROE, adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - **Index Performance**: In April, Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly. Specifically, CSI 1000 fell 4.61%, CSI 500 fell 3.94%, SSE 50 fell 0.63%, and SSE 300 fell 2.58%. Weekly, small - cap indices rebounded more strongly, with CSI 1000 rising 1.85% and SSE 50 falling 0.33% [3][6]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US tariff war, which started on April 2nd, has temporarily ended. However, due to the US's insufficient financial account financing ability and the need to balance the current account deficit, tariff policies may change again in the future [3][6]. - **Financial Reports**: At the end of April, A - shares will fully disclose the 2024 annual reports and 2025 first - quarter reports. The market is more concerned about nominal growth data, and the year - on - year revenue growth rate in the financial reports can provide indirect verification. In the first three quarters of 2024, the cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of A - shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, excluding the financial sector, was - 1.7% ( - 0.6% in the semi - annual report) [3][6]. 2. Market Indicators - **Interest Rate and Valuation**: At the end of April, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond was 1.67%. The dynamic P/E ratio of Wind All - A was 18.22 times, and the equity risk premium was still at a relatively high historical level. The PE_ttm of CSI 1000 was 37.23, and that of SSE 300 was 12.26, with both valuation levels slightly lower than last month [9]. - **Fund Flow**: From April 1st to April 24th, the net subscription of the four major broad - based index ETFs reached 193.6 billion yuan, with a single - day net subscription of 100.3 billion yuan on April 7th, a record high. However, the margin trading balance decreased by 110.5 billion yuan during the same period, indicating a significant cooling of market sentiment. Weekly, both showed weakening momentum [18]. 3. Overseas Revenue Sectors - **Industry Concentration**: Sectors with high overseas revenue are mainly concentrated in three industrial chains: high - end technology manufacturing, new energy vehicle industry chain, and energy and chemical products [20]. - **Sensitivity to Tariffs**: Most sectors with high overseas revenue are in the development and expansion stage, with high capital expenditure ratios (8% - 18% of revenue). Their ROE is lower than the A - share average (around 7.8%), adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model, making them more sensitive to tariff policies [20]. 4. Policy and Data - **Domestic Policies**: Multiple policies have been introduced, including a 12 - trillion - yuan debt - resolution plan, a mention of "moderately loose monetary policy", a 2025 GDP growth target of 5%, a fiscal deficit rate of 4%, and a fertility reward policy in Hohhot [21]. - **US Tariff Policy**: The US "reciprocal tariff" plan was implemented on April 3rd. As of April 12, 2025, the US tariff rate on Chinese imports increased by 125%. The US also issued a tariff exemption list and a tariff suspension policy for some countries, while China issued a white paper on Sino - US economic and trade relations [21]. - **Economic Data**: In March, China's exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year (in US dollars), and imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year (in US dollars). In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in March was 5.9%, exceeding the average level of the demand side [21]. 5. Index and Option Performance - **Index Performance**: CSI 1000 fell 4.15% monthly, CSI 500 rose 3.94% monthly, SSE 300 fell 2.58% monthly, and SSE 50 fell 0.63% monthly, with the basis discount annualization showing a widening divergence for all [29][33][36][38]. - **Option Indicators**: Charts of historical volatility, volatility cones,持仓PCR, and 交易PCR for CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 options are provided, but no specific analysis of these indicators is given in the text [42][51][58]. - **Trading Slippage**: Charts of IM long - and short - position trading slippage are provided, but no specific analysis is given [66]. 6. Corporate Profitability - **Low - level Profitability**: The profitability of listed companies remains at a relatively low level. In the third quarter of 2024, the revenue and net profit growth rates of the entire market, excluding the financial sector, showed different degrees of decline [77]. - **Financial Indicators of Indices**: The 2024 semi - annual report shows various financial indicators of different indices, including ROE, operating net profit margin, asset turnover, etc., with differences in growth and profitability among different indices [79].