尽管黄金尚未回到10月创下的每盎司4380美元左右历史高点，但据一位市场策略师表示，当前金价已接 近其公允价值。 在近期接受Kitco新闻采访时，WisdomTree大宗商品与宏观研究主管尼泰什·沙阿（Nitesh Shah）表示， 全球经济充斥着大量不确定性，尽管金价波动性很大，但在每次新的突破后都能建立更高的支撑位，这 并不令人意外。 他补充道，等待金价更大幅度回调的投资者可能会继续失望，因为贵金属预计将从日益疲软的经济中获 得坚实支撑，这将迫使美联储在下周及2026年期间降息，从而推低名义和实际债券收益率，并削弱美 元。 尽管黄金在10月未能站稳每盎司4380美元上方，并遭遇了大规模获利了结，但抛售压力始终有限，支撑 位维持在每盎司4000美元上方。 "金价可能跌破4000美元，但这需要巨大的推动力，几乎可以说是不可能的，"他说。 沙阿表示，在熊市情景下，利率必须回升至5%。但他补充道，若出现这种情况，美国经济可能会陷入 衰退，这将使黄金成为具有吸引力的避险资产。 "只有在经济活动异常强劲、利率必须进一步上升，且投资者认为不再需要持有黄金的情景下，金价才 会大幅下跌，"他说，"但目前来看这根本不可能。每 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have retreated from record highs due to profit-taking by traders and a slight recovery in a key dollar strength indicator, with silver prices dropping 2.4% to $57.0935 per ounce [1] - Silver prices have nearly doubled this year, surpassing a 60% increase in gold prices, with both metals on track for their best annual performance since 1979 [3] - The recent tightening in the silver market has led to record inflows into London, causing supply concerns in other regions [3] Group 2 - Delayed U.S. economic data has strengthened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its final policy meeting of the year, with a significant drop in private sector employment reported [3] - Traders are closely monitoring the potential for U.S. tariffs on silver, as the U.S. Geological Survey has listed silver as a critical mineral [3] - The influx of silver into the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) has been driven by the prospect of U.S. premiums, which may limit liquidity until tariff policies are clarified [3][4] Group 3 - The inflow of options funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), led by retail investors, has significantly impacted prices, creating a market structure favorable for price surges [4] - The total volume of call and put options for popular physical silver ETFs has recently surged to levels seen during last October's tightening period [4] - As of the latest data, silver prices have decreased by 1.65% to $57.5382 per ounce, following a record high of $58.9789 per ounce [4]

Core Insights - The silver futures market shows a closing price of 13,424 yuan per kilogram on December 4, with a daily decline of 1.42% and a trading volume of 2,280,887 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price is quoted at 13,685 yuan per kilogram, indicating a premium of 261 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are high, with an 89% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, influenced by a significant drop in U.S. private sector employment [3] Market Dynamics - The iShares Silver Trust, the largest silver ETF globally, has increased its holdings by 135.4 tons, bringing the total to 15,998.55 tons [4] - The silver market is experiencing a structural reversal between Shanghai and New York, with strong domestic sentiment and supply shortages driving prices higher [5] - The premium for Shanghai silver has narrowed to 340 yuan per kilogram, reflecting robust market conditions ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [5]

沪银主力暂时还是维持在13840高点之下，白银期货开盘报13485元/千克，最高触及13866元/千克，最 低触及13430元/千克，截止收盘报13582元/千克，上涨1.18%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 82760 | 0 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 93232 | 0 | | | 中工美供应链 | 324904 | 19796 | | | 合计 | 500896 | 19796 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 125737 | 12205 | | 总计 | | 626633 | 32001 | 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货12月3日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计626633千克，较上一日上涨 32001千克。 白银持续受益于多重利好因素：黄金牛市带动的联动需求、结构性实物供应缺口，以及其拟被纳入美国 关键矿产清单的预期。这些因素支撑着庞大的潜在买盘，使得市场在动能短暂降温时仍有资金主动介 入。 周一出炉的美国ISM制造业PMI数据表现不佳，强化了市场对美联储12月10日的降息预期，而且美国总 统特朗普表示， ...

12月4日金价速报，国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，部分金店金价有走低迹象。今日的金店最高价暂报 1328元/克，最低价仍是上海中国黄金的1232元/克。今日金店金价高低价差稍有缩小，报96元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 1325 元/克 2 跌 六福黄金价格 1326 元/克 元/克 0 0 平 周大福黄金价格 1328 元/克 0 平 周六福黄金价格 1289 平 金至尊黄金价格 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年12月4日） 金店报价 1326 元/克 0 平 老凤祥黄金价格 1325 元/克 2 跌 潮宏基黄金价格 1328 元/克 0 平 周生生黄金价格 1327 元/克 6 跌 菜百黄金价格 1290 元/克 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 1232 元/克 0 平 0 平 今日金店黄金价格有探跌趋势，铂金价格反弹上涨，拿周大福黄金来说，今日铂金饰品价格上涨8元/ 克，报671元/克。如需了解其他品牌铂金价格，欢迎留言，我们将及时汇总更新。 另外，今日黄金回收价格下跌5.9元/克。不同品牌回收价差较大，以下为部分金店回收参考价： 今日金价 单位 黄金 周大生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is primarily driven by supply disruptions, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and production challenges in Myanmar, while downstream demand shows mixed performance [1][2][3]. Supply Situation - Tin prices have accelerated since mid-October, with significant contributions from supply concerns related to the DRC's Alphamin mine, which has a production capacity of 17,000 tons [2]. - The DRC accounted for 20% of China's tin ore imports from January to October 2025, raising market fears about supply stability [1]. - The mining situation in Myanmar's Wa region has been hampered by a mining ban and operational challenges, leading to slower-than-expected production recovery [2]. - Overall, domestic smelting operations have returned to high levels post-maintenance, ensuring sufficient tin ingot supply [1]. Downstream Demand - Demand for tin is currently mixed, with strong growth in AI semiconductors and a 20% increase in electric vehicles contributing positively, while demand from the photovoltaic sector and home appliances has weakened significantly [3]. - Cumulative demand from January to October has decreased by 1.38% year-on-year, with expectations of further declines in November and December [3]. - The demand for refined tin solder, which constitutes about 50% of downstream usage, has seen a recovery in operating rates, currently around 75% [3]. Price Outlook - Short-term price increases may be limited due to demand pressures and unconfirmed supply disruptions, with current volatility nearing 30, indicating a risk-reward imbalance [4]. - The primary driver of current tin price valuations is supply-side concerns, particularly regarding the DRC's political situation, which investors should monitor closely [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience high volatility, with prices likely to remain elevated but difficult to sustain significant increases in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance, with international copper and Shanghai copper futures reaching historical highs, driven by supply tightness and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 15:00, the shipping index (European line) rose over 3%, while international copper, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai tin increased by over 2%. Other commodities like pulp, coke, and silicon iron rose by over 1%, and aluminum, crude oil, and manganese silicon saw slight increases [1] - On the downside, caustic soda, Shanghai silver, and glass fell by over 1%, while live pigs, white sugar, and eggs experienced slight declines [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Copper Prices - According to Xinyi Futures, the main driver for the rise in copper prices is the ongoing supply tightness, coupled with an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the dollar and provided strong support for base metals [1] - Wenkang Futures noted that while there are some geopolitical headwinds, market focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with increased probabilities of rate cuts contributing to a positive market sentiment [1] - From an industrial perspective, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and expectations of reduced smelting output are driving strong copper price trends. Short-term supply is expected to see marginal increases, and with downstream operating rates providing support, copper prices are likely to maintain a strong upward trend [1]

现货市场：听闻小牌对1月升水200-升水400元/吨左右，云字头对1月升水400-升水600元/吨附近，云锡 对1月升水600-升水800元/吨左右不变。整体来看，美国11月ADP意外下滑，支持美联储12月降息，美 元回落，利好锡价走势。同时刚果金武装冲突影响持续发酵，资金增仓带动锡价创2022年5月以来新 高。短期在宏观预期较好及供应端扰动有望扩大的支撑下，预计期价保持震荡偏强运行，后期需持续关 注刚果金地缘变化。 金瑞期货：锡价预计延续高位震荡运行 此次大涨主要是供应端消息发酵，市场对原料收缩担忧加剧，叠加美联储降息预期升温宏观支撑等。基 本面上，缅甸锡矿复产推进，环比增量有限；印尼截至11月底，JFX与ICDX成交量为6565吨。国内方 面，锡矿供应依然紧张，冶炼厂产量预计平稳。需求端持续低迷，消费电子需求不振，高价进一步抑制 下游采购意愿，企业多以刚需备货为主。展望后市，供应端扰动，叠加矿端原料紧张格局未改，而高价 位下企业采购意愿偏低，国内社会库存小幅累库，锡价预计延续高位震荡运行。 宏源期货：沪锡价格震荡偏强 12月4日盘中，沪锡期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至323700.00元。截止发 ...

Group 1 - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures reached a historical high, driven by a surge in canceled warehouse receipts at the London Metal Exchange (LME), indicating tightening supply outside of China and increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1] - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.62% to 91,300 yuan per ton, earlier touching a record high of 91,400 yuan [1] - LME three-month copper contract hit a historical high of $11,540 per ton, with current prices at $11,510.50 per ton [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its LME copper average price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $10,415 per ton to $10,710 per ton [2] - The US dollar showed weakness, reinforcing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [2] Group 3 - Tin prices surged to their highest level in three and a half years, with Shanghai tin rising by 3.05% to 318,790 yuan per ton, earlier reaching 323,700 yuan [3][4] - Other base metals on the Shanghai market saw increases, with aluminum up 1.1% to 22,135 yuan per ton, zinc up 0.88% to 22,940 yuan per ton, lead up 0.03% to 17,190 yuan per ton, and nickel up 0.21% to 117,860 yuan per ton [3] - LME three-month tin declined by 0.94% to $40,395.00 per ton, while other metals like zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel showed slight increases [4]

来源：市场资讯 宏观流动性的宽松预期为铜价注入"金融属性动力"。截至12月4日，美国利率期货显示，市场对美联储 12月降息25个基点的概率已超80%。银河证券研报进一步指出，美联储年底或从"缩表"转为"扩表"，流 动性边际宽松将直接利好铜等大宗商品。 美元指数的持续走弱则放大涨势。今年以来美元指数已下跌8%，铜作为"以美元计价"的全球资产，吸 引力显著提升。默克投资创始人阿克塞尔・默克表示："投资者正通过铜、黄金等资产对冲美元购买力 下降风险，这也是近期工业金属与贵金属同步上涨的核心原因。" （来源：懒人财知道） 12月4日，工业金属市场的"铜市热度"持续发酵，沪铜主连早盘以90070元/吨开盘后，迅速开启冲高模 式，盘中最高触及91400元/吨，刷新前一日刚创下的历史新高。 国际市场上，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜延续涨势，日内涨2.1%报11520美元/吨，续创历史新 高；纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜价则站稳5.25美元/磅，较12月3日上涨1.8%。 为何持续冲高？三大核心逻辑共振，铜市进入"强驱动周期" 沪铜能在创历史新高后继续冲高，本质是"供应端收缩+宏观面宽松+需求端结构性增长"的三重逻辑 ...