Wolfinance星级分析师认为，市场对美联储进一步降息的预期，继续支撑黄金价格。具体来看，早些时 候美联储如期降息25个基点，美联储主席讲话表示，劳动力市场存在显著下行风险，不希望政策抑制就 业增长，引发了市场对明年可能降息2次的猜测，此后公布的美国非农数据，显示美国劳动力市场降温 的态势仍在持续，令降息预期小幅升温，到周四公布的美国CPI数据，显示美国通胀明显降温，进一步 强化了市场对美联储降息的预期，这些因素支撑黄金价格，保持向上试探趋势，不过黄金在周四冲高回 落，主要因金价接近历史高点时，短期获利了结加强短期卖压，不过这并未改变目前黄金整体偏多的局 面。 12月19日，昨日周四我们认为，此前公布的美国非农数据显示，劳动力市场的降温态势仍在持续，这令 美联储降息的预期小幅升温，为黄金价格提供支撑，另外当天将公布美国CPI数据，若低于预期，将强 化降息路劲，这有利黄金上涨，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4300美元，其次4280美元，上方压 力关注4350美元附近的突破情况，向上突破关注历史高点4381美元。 从之后的走势看，昨日周四美盘开盘前，黄金震荡承压，跌至4314美元企稳，美盘开盘后，黄金短线 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月19日16时10分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌0.01%，沪银主力收跌0.46%，铂金主力收跌1.70%，钯金主力收涨涨1.67%。逻辑：①核心 逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，特朗普称 乌克兰和平谈判"接近结果"，美俄官员本周末将会晤。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方 面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置， 可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下 次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期 强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指 ...

02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 沪铜市场周报 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 供给略增需求韧性，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏弱，周线涨跌幅为-0.96%，振幅3.84%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价93180元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国11月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；美国11月未季调核心CPI年率录得 2.6%，为2021年3月以来新低。美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储明年1月份降息的可能性从26.6%上升至28.8%。国 内方面，国家发改委投资司指出，2025年以来投资下行压力加大，接下来要从畅通供需循环、投融资循环等方面采取针对 性措施，着力扩大有效投资。基本面原料端，铜精矿现货加工费指数负值区域运行且小幅下滑，矿紧预期将在较长的时期 持续奏效于铜冶炼端，为铜价提供较强成本支撑。供给方面，冶炼副产品硫酸价格小幅涨价，弥补冶炼厂部分利润损失。 加之，前期 ...

周五（12月19日）亚欧时段，现货黄金仍震荡徘徊短期高位区间内尚未爆发，目前暂交投于4326美元附近。周四（12月18日），金价一度飙升至4374美元/ 盎司的近两个月高点，却在短时间内回吐涨幅，收盘时勉强守住阵地，收报4332.31美元/盎司。这一波动并非孤立事件，而是深受美国最新消费者物价指数 （CPI）数据影响的产物。低于预期的通胀数据一方面刺激了美联储降息预期，推动美债收益率下滑，为金价提供了短暂的上涨动力；另一方面，却削弱了 黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力，导致多头获利了结。 基本面： 美国11月CPI数据的公布，成为本次金价波动的导火索。根据劳工统计局的报告，11月消费者物价同比上涨2.7%，远低于经济学家预期的3.1%。这一数据本 应是市场的一剂强心针，因为它暗示通胀压力正在缓解，有助于美联储维持宽松货币政策。然而，现实情况远比表面复杂。由于联邦政府停摆长达43天，数 据收集工作严重受阻，导致10月大部分物价数据缺失，甚至取消了10月CPI的发布。这份报告被经济学家戏称为"瑞士奶酪"，充满了缺口和偏差。延续法在 处理缺失数据时假设10月价格指数不变，这在统计上引入了下行偏向，使得通胀趋势显得比实际 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices showed a slight increase of 0.46% at closing, supported by a tight copper supply despite subdued downstream demand and limited accumulation of social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index is operating at a low level, contributing to a favorable environment for copper prices [1] - Recent US inflation data for November came in below expectations, indicating signs of cooling inflation [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly lower than expected, which, along with dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials, has bolstered expectations for a rate cut in January [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper exports have increased, while social inventory accumulation has been limited, particularly due to reduced inflows in Jiangsu and Guangdong [1] - The rise in domestic refined copper social inventory has slowed down as of Thursday, indicating a tightening supply situation [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jin Yuan Futures suggests that weaker US inflation data strengthens expectations for a rate cut next year, which may favor a dovish narrative [1] - The European Central Bank has paused rate cuts while raising economic growth forecasts, indicating a potential for stable rates over a longer period [1] - The global resumption of mining operations is slow, with low LME registered warehouse stocks, and domestic social inventory remains at a low level [1] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming long-term contract TC negotiations, with expectations that copper prices will maintain high volatility in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core signal from global markets indicates that concerns over economic growth are replacing inflation fears as the key variable influencing asset prices [1] - A contradictory U.S. employment report triggered this shift, showing moderate growth in non-farm payrolls but an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, a three-year high, alongside significant downward revisions of previous data [1] - The market interprets this as a green light for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, strengthening expectations for a policy shift and causing a chain reaction across asset classes [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index continues to weaken due to the soft economic data, particularly the rise in unemployment, which undermines the dollar's interest rate advantage [1] - The U.S. stock market displays a mixed pattern of "recession trades" and "easing trades," with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 under pressure, particularly in the energy sector, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index rises due to lower long-term interest rates benefiting growth-oriented tech companies [1] - Commodity markets reacted directly to growth concerns, with international oil prices plummeting nearly 3%, reaching their lowest since early 2021, driven by fears of demand shrinkage and oversupply due to potential peace agreements in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 3 - Gold prices surged after the data release, reflecting increased attractiveness as a zero-yield asset due to rate-cut expectations, maintaining above $4300 per ounce despite slight pullbacks [2] - The market's focus is shifting from "how persistent inflation is" to "how weak the economy is," with Federal Reserve policy expectations becoming the anchor for asset pricing [2] - Domestic market dynamics may be influenced by the combination of overseas recession and easing expectations, alongside significant domestic policy advancements such as the Hainan Free Trade Port closure and Level 3 autonomous driving commercial licenses [2]

CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝冲高回落，LME三个月北京时间14：56报于2883美元/吨，较上一交易日结 算价涨0.5美元/吨，涨幅0.02%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约强势反弹震荡；开盘价报21845元/吨，盘中最高22020元/吨，最低 21810元/吨，昨日结算21795元/吨，尾盘收至21915元/吨，涨120元，涨幅0.55%；沪铝主力月2602合约 全天成交量184098手减少57826手，持仓量293990手增加5157手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格21730-21770元/吨，涨120元，贴水125-贴水85，跌5元； 广东现货21625-21675元/吨，涨130元，贴水230-贴水180，涨5元；上海地区21720-21760元/吨，涨120 元，贴水135-贴水95，跌5元。 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部公布最新数据，11月美国非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于预期的5万人；但 失业率同步升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高。这一数据变化增加了美联储未来降息的可能性，为铝价 提供了一定支撑。此外，今日美国科技股回涨，国内A股三大指数集体反弹，新能源板块表现亮眼，获 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic A-share market rebounded with over 3,600 stocks rising, and the total trading volume reached 1.81 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1][6] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.92%, while the ChiNext Index surged by 3.39%, reflecting a broad-based rally across sectors [1][6] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 7.61%, reaching 108,620 yuan/ton, marking a three-month high, driven by supply-demand tightness and market sentiment [1][2] - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 101,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton [1] - Market sentiment was bolstered by the cancellation of expired mining licenses in Yichun, interpreted as a signal of stricter supply-side controls [1] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices both hit their daily limits, with platinum rising by 7% to 527.55 yuan/gram and palladium increasing by 6.99% to 455.15 yuan/gram [3] - The rise was supported by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which weakened the dollar and boosted precious metals [3] - Supply constraints in key mining regions and recovering demand from the automotive sector contributed to the bullish outlook for both metals [3] Group 4: Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices reached a new high of 61,985 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.36% [4] - The market was supported by policies aimed at curbing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry and expectations of production cuts [5] - However, concerns about weakening downstream demand and rising inventory levels may pose challenges for sustained price increases [5] Group 5: Stock Market Dynamics - The energy metals sector, particularly lithium-related stocks, saw significant gains, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit [7] - The AI computing sector also performed well, driven by high demand for optical modules [7] - The overall market sentiment was influenced by government emphasis on expanding domestic demand and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [7] Group 6: Market Outlook - Short-term market movements are driven by sentiment, while long-term fundamentals remain strong, particularly for lithium and precious metals [8] - The ongoing supply-demand gap for lithium resources and the supportive policies for polysilicon are expected to sustain price increases [8] - Investors are advised to focus on trading opportunities driven by sentiment in the short term while considering the underlying fundamentals for long-term strategies [9]

宏观层面，周四美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，2025 年 12 月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%， 创 7 月以来最低水平，不仅低于市场预期的 3.1%，也低于 9 月 3.0%的同比涨幅。同期，核心通胀率 （剔除食品和能源价格）同比上涨 2.6%，为 2021 年 3 月以来最低值，同样低于预期的 3.0%。受美国 政府停摆影响，劳工统计局未能采集 2025 年 10 月相关数据，致使 10 月 CPI 数据缺失，11 月月度数据 也未发布。不过该机构称，9 月至 11 月的两个月间，消费者价格指数累计上涨 0.2%。此次公布的 CPI 数据，为美联储内部鸽派阵营主张进一步降息提供了有力支撑。降息预期通常利好有色金属，利空美元 汇率。 基本面方面，国内电解铝运行产能整体变动不大，因产能已达上限，供应难有明显增量。需求端，虽进 入消费淡季，下游整体消费趋弱，但未出现趋势性大幅下滑的情况。下游年底赶工态势显著，汽车、电 子等行业消费具韧性且铝锭社库低位。截至 12 月 18 日，中国主要市场电解铝库存为 56.1 万吨，较本 周一减少 1.6 万吨，铝价底部支撑尚存。不过，后市预期不佳，叠加年底回笼资 ...