Market Performance - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a sharp increase in oil and gold prices, with Brent crude oil rising over 13% this week, recovering all losses for the year[1] - The US stock market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq falling by 0.39%, 1.32%, and 0.63% respectively due to geopolitical concerns overshadowing positive US-China trade talks[1][13] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 10 basis points (bp) to 4.41%, reflecting a strong bond market amid weakening economic data[1][11] Economic Indicators - In May, China's exports totaled $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, while imports fell by 3.4% to $212.88 billion[19][21] - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3%[22] - The People's Bank of China is set to conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, aiming to maintain liquidity in the market[23] Geopolitical Developments - The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated, with Iran launching a large-scale missile attack on Israel, marking a significant shift from proxy warfare to direct confrontation[25] - The US has seen its CPI data fall below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, contributing to a weaker dollar, with the dollar index dropping below 98, a three-year low[11][19] Investment Outlook - The current geopolitical tensions are expected to increase risk aversion in the market, putting pressure on equity investments[4] - Gold prices are anticipated to rise further due to heightened safe-haven demand, with COMEX gold surpassing $3,400 per ounce[1][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market focus has shifted to the military conflict in the Middle East. Market risk appetite has declined, and volatility has increased. Gold may maintain a relatively strong trend, but the long - short game is also intensifying [4] - Gold prices first declined and then rose, breaking through the $3400 mark. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. Rising oil prices have added inflationary pressure in the US, increasing the stagflation pressure on the US fundamentals. The employment market continues to weaken, but the inflation expectations of the resident sector have declined from a high level [2] - The Fed's June interest - rate meeting is approaching, and it is expected to keep rates unchanged. The short - term fundamental data gives the Fed a time window for further observation. The market's expectation of an interest - rate cut has been postponed to September. Monetary policy lacks short - term incremental positive factors and fails to provide more upward momentum for gold [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) decreased by 4.9%, the internal - external futures price difference decreased by 120.2%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 1.8%, and the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.86% [11] - The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.67%, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 0.5% [11] - The US Treasury yield decreased by 2.2%, the US dollar index decreased by 1.07%, the SOFR decreased by 0.2%, and the US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate decreased by 1.21% [11] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.4%, the VIX volatility index increased by 24.2%, the gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 2.2%, and the US 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 3.6% [11] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.28%, oil prices rose 10.3%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.29% [17] - The US dollar index fell 1.01% to 98.2, the US Treasury yield was 4.4%, the S&P 500 fell 0.39%, and the VIX index rose to 20.8 [18] - The real interest rate fell to 2.11%, and the gold price rose 3.7%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the US dollar index declined [20] 3.2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 falling 0.39%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.25% [22] - US and German bonds declined, with the US - German yield spread at 1.86%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.55%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.41% [25] - The euro rose 1.32%, the pound rose 0.31%, the yen rose 0.54%, and the Swiss franc rose 1.33%. The US dollar index fell 1.01% to 98.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated [27][30] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly decreased to 129,000 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume rose to 940 tons [33] - The RMB appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold rose, silver rose slightly, and the gold - silver ratio rose to 94.6 [35] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's May social retail sales and industrial added value; US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index [36] - Tuesday: Bank of Japan's June interest - rate meeting; US May retail sales and June NAHB Housing Market Index [36] - Wednesday: UK May CPI; US May new housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims for the week [36] - Thursday: Fed, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England's June interest - rate meetings; US stock market closed for Juneteenth [36] - Friday: China's June LPR [36]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, alongside other factors such as U.S. monetary policy and persistent global inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The key catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a rapid increase in risk aversion among investors [3]. - Other significant factors influencing gold prices include the U.S. fiscal situation, with concerns over expanding fiscal deficits and the weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [3][4]. - Historical analysis indicates that the duration and uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts significantly impact gold price movements, with central bank gold purchases and inflation also playing crucial roles [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing gold prices during clear risk events and should consider buying on dips instead [6][7]. - The difficulty of short-term timing in gold investments is highlighted, with recommendations for long-term strategies such as dollar-cost averaging [7][9]. - Despite potential risks, including a possible economic recovery that could strengthen the dollar, the overall sentiment remains that gold has substantial long-term investment potential due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term investment opportunity in gold is supported by its role as a hedge against extreme risks, including geopolitical conflicts and economic instability [9]. - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, providing further support for gold prices [9]. - The ongoing uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy and geopolitical tensions are likely to maintain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the medium to long term [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have triggered a risk-off sentiment in global capital markets, impacting the A-share market, which experienced a sudden decline on June 13, 2025 [2][20]. Market Reaction - On June 13, sectors such as oil, gold, and military industries saw gains, disrupting the upward momentum of other sectors like finance, new consumption, gaming, and media [4][10]. - The market's trading tone on the following Monday will depend on whether the conflict escalates or de-escalates, with historical patterns suggesting potential outcomes [4][20]. Historical Context - A comparison is drawn to the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, where the A-share market reacted similarly to geopolitical tensions, with a notable decline followed by a brief recovery [6][8]. - On February 24, 2022, the A-share market saw a significant drop, with the ChiNext index falling by 2.11% as panic set in [6][8]. Sector Performance - In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sectors such as oil service and precious metals initially surged before experiencing a pullback, while military-related sectors peaked and then declined [10][18]. - The data shows that on February 24, 2022, oil service engineering and precious metals sectors rose by 7.13% and 7.06%, respectively, while consumer and technology sectors faced declines [9][11]. Investment Trends - The article identifies three main trends in the A-share market during geopolitical conflicts: 1. Risk-off sentiment leads to capital flowing into defensive sectors like oil, gold, and military [15][16]. 2. A quick rebound occurs within a week as the market digests negative news [17]. 3. Significant sector differentiation, with energy and military sectors performing well while consumer and tech sectors decline due to reduced risk appetite [18][19]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may not replicate the downturn seen in March-April 2022, as the market is expected to return to its original rhythm over time [20][21]. - The upcoming week will see significant economic data releases, including industrial production and fixed asset investment reports, which could influence market sentiment [27][28].

Group 1 - Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories, which may lead to a prolonged operation to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons [1] - The attack caused market turmoil, with U.S. stock index futures declining, oil prices surging, gold prices rising, and the U.S. dollar index strengthening [1] - Analysts noted that the geopolitical conflict could lead to increased inflation expectations, impacting fixed income markets and potentially pushing the Federal Reserve towards a more hawkish stance [1][2] Group 2 - The conflict has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar, while safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold have also strengthened [2] - The global stock market, which has seen a 30% increase in the MSCI global index this year, may face further declines as the conflict acts as a catalyst for price corrections [2] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, energy stocks, and defense companies are expected to perform well due to concerns over potential supply disruptions in the oil market [2] Group 3 - The scale and impact of the attack remain unclear, leading to limited market volatility despite a rush into safe-haven assets [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical conflict adds to the fragile market sentiment, with the potential for either a quick de-escalation or an escalation that threatens oil transport routes [3]

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华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 叶青 北京报道 当地时间6月13日，以色列空袭伊朗境内目标的消息传出后，全球金融市场瞬间剧烈波动。在避险需求推动下，资 金疯狂涌入黄金市场，现货黄金价格如离弦之箭般飙升，强势突破3410美元/盎司，最高触及3443美元/盎司高 位。COMEX黄金期货价格也出现大幅上涨，最高冲至3463美元/盎司。 与此同时，原油市场亦大幅波动。作为全球原油供应核心区域，中东地区的以色列与伊朗冲突，令市场对石油供 应中断的担忧急剧升温。美国西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)一度大涨13.46%。截至发稿，布伦特原油期货价格回落 至71美元/桶，美国WTI原油期货价格回落至69.97美元/桶。业内人士指出，此次冲突爆发无疑加剧了原油供应的 不确定性，油价也因此被大幅推高。 以色列对伊朗发动袭击 据央视报道，当地时间6月13日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡称，以色列对伊朗的首次突袭"非常成功"，以色列袭击了 伊朗高级指挥部，袭击了推动核武器发展的高级科学家，袭击了核设施。内塔尼亚胡表示，以色列"正在取得成 就"。 "长久以来，以色列一直将伊朗的核发展计划视为对其国家安全的严重威胁，此次 ...

智通财经APP获悉，以色列于6月13日清晨对伊朗核设施及弹道导弹基地发动突袭，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫 队指挥官侯赛因・萨拉米在袭击中身亡，德黑兰随即誓言对以政府及美国实施"严厉打击"。这场突如其 来的中东危机迅速穿透地缘边界，在全球资本市场掀起剧烈震荡——布伦特原油期货单日飙升超13%， 加密货币与全球股市集体下挫，黄金等避险资产应声暴涨，能源与金融市场的连锁反应正持续发酵。 亚洲市场方面，港股成为地缘风险的直接冲击对象。恒生指数当日低开后震荡下挫，最终收跌0.59%报 23892.56点，恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至1.72%，科技股全线疲软，阿里巴巴等龙头跌幅超1%。不过，能 源与黄金板块逆势走强，中海油、中石油涨超2%，赤峰黄金飙升10%，山东墨龙因油气设备订单预期 激增一度暴涨160%。 军贸市场需求隐现增量中东采购格局受关注 南向资金逆势净买入39.97亿港元，显示内地资金对港股优质资产的长期配置信心。有专家早评指出， 地缘风险对港股的冲击呈现结构性特征：依赖中东供应链的航运股承压，而油气开采、黄金等防御性板 块成为资金避风港。 能源动脉受冲击油价上演"地缘惊魂跳" 作为承载全球20%原油流量的霍尔木兹海峡，其 ...

6月13日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价继续上涨，整体价格来到1030元/克。周生生黄金上涨13元/ 克，报1033元/克，还是最高价金店。上海中国黄金价格价格还是没动静，报价969元/克，为最低价金 店。今日金店黄金价差64元/克，价差扩大中。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 1026 元/克 13 涨 周大福黄金价格 1030 元/克 13 涨 周六福黄金价格 六福黄金价格 1030 元/克 13 涨 1010 元/克 13 涨 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年6月13日） 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 1030 元/克 13 涨 老凤祥黄金价格 1029 元/克 13 涨 潮宏基黄金价格 1030 元/克 13 涨 969 周生生黄金价格 1033 元/克 13 涨 菜百黄金价格 990 元/克 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 元/克 0 平 周大生黄金价格 1030 元/克 13 涨 在关注黄金走势之余，再让我们看下铂金价格。还是以周生生黄金为例，今日黄金饰品价格上涨13元/ 克，铂金饰品价格上涨6元/克，报价518元/克。如果大家还想知道其他金店的铂金报价，欢 ...