Core Viewpoint - Precious metals prices continue to rise significantly due to sustained investment demand and increasing risk aversion amid the looming U.S. government shutdown and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movements - As of September 29, international spot gold prices have reached a historic high above $3,800, while silver prices have also surged past $47 [1]. - Silver prices have increased approximately 5% within two trading days, breaking the $46 per ounce mark, and further rising to over $47 per ounce [2]. - Platinum has seen a nearly 10% increase over three trading days, surpassing $1,600 per ounce [3]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Prices - Despite hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, the probability of a rate cut in October remains around 90% due to low inflation pressures indicated by the August PCE price index [2]. - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown, exacerbated by the Senate's rejection of a temporary funding bill, is contributing to rising gold prices alongside ongoing central bank gold purchases and investment demand [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve personnel and potential market disruptions is bolstering risk aversion, leading to increased buying of precious metals as a hedge [4]. - Analysts suggest that while the bullish momentum for gold and silver is expected to continue, profit-taking may occur following the release of key global economic indicators [5][6]. - Historical data indicates that revisions to non-farm payroll figures often occur in October, which could amplify market volatility if any contrary signals arise [7].

周一（9月29日），现货黄金价格延续强势上行态势，突破3800美元关口并创下历史新高，最高触及3814.95美元/盎司，日内涨 幅约1.43%。 这一价格表现标志着黄金市场迎来了新的历史里程碑。 【免责声明】以上内容由百利好提供，仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议。据此操作，风险自担。 【核心驱动因素】 美国政府停摆风险成为市场关注焦点。如果国会未能在周二前通过拨款法案，美国政府部分机构将于周三起停摆。这一不确定 性推升市场避险情绪，促使资金流向黄金。 同时，美国8月PCE通胀数据符合预期，强化了美联储降息预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场预计美联储10月降息概率接近 88%。低利率环境降低了持有黄金的机会成本，进一步支撑金价。 【市场展望】 交易员正密切关注周一晚些时候多位美联储官员的讲话。任何鹰派言论都可能提振美元，对金价构成压力。 技术面显示，黄金中长期看涨基调稳固，但14日相对强弱指数高企于75上方，表明已进入超买区域。金价短期内可能面临整 理，但若能有效突破3810美元阻力，有望进一步上探3850美元。 随着避险需求与降息预期共同发挥作用，黄金在突破历史高点后仍具备上行潜力，但短期需警惕技术性回 ...

Core Insights - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. has led to a decline in the dollar, which in turn has driven gold prices to surpass the key level of $3,800 per ounce for the first time [1][20] - European stock markets opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index rising by 0.33%, and other major indices also showing positive movements [1][4] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.89%, closing at 44,940.87, while the South Korean KOSPI rose by 1.49% to 3,436.99, marking a monthly increase of 7.8% [2][12] - The FTSE Straits Times Index increased by 0.23%, closing at 4,274.9 [2][15] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by approximately 0.26%, settling at 97.94 [2][17] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $3,806.8 per ounce, up 1.2%, and silver rising over 2% to $46 per ounce, a fourteen-year high [2][20][23] - Platinum and palladium also experienced increases, with platinum up 3.4% to $1,622.04 per ounce and palladium up 2.2% to $1,297.67 per ounce [2][26][27] - Brent crude oil saw a slight decline of 0.03%, trading at $68.53 per barrel [2][28]

9月29日，现货黄金突然大幅攀升，日内大涨超55美元，触及3819美元/盎司，创下新高。金价日内大涨超55美 元。受国际金价接连上涨影响，国内品牌金饰克价已经超1100元大关。 上周，随着美联储降息落地、避险情绪升温及资金持续涌入，金价显著抬升。COMEX黄金期货价格周度上涨 2.27%报3789.8美元/盎司，周内再创历史新高。 而本周一，现货黄金价格突然大幅攀升。截至发稿时，现货黄金已经涨超1.5%，最高报3819.8美元/盎司。同时， COMEX黄金期货周一也由跌转涨，涨幅接近1%，最高报3848.8美元/盎司。 消息面上，美国国会四位最高领袖将于当地时间周一在白宫会晤特朗普。此时，若两党无法就短期支出法案达成 一致，联邦资金将于当地时间次日(9月30日)宣告耗尽。市场担心美国政府可能关门，这可能会推迟本周关键就业 数据的发布，并可能给美联储的货币政策路径蒙上阴影。 9月29日，国内部分黄金珠宝品牌金饰价格继续上涨。具体来看，国内金饰价格跟涨。周生生足金饰品标价1111 元/克，较前一日的1108元/克的价格上涨3元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价1115元/克，较前一日1110元/克的价格上 涨5元/克；周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly seeking refuge in precious metals due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid the looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown, leading to record high gold prices and rising silver prices [1][4][6]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - Spot gold prices rose by 1.19% to reach a historical high of $3,805.88 per ounce, marking the sixth consecutive week of increases [1]. - Spot silver increased by over 2%, hitting $47 per ounce, the highest level since May 2011 [4]. - Gold futures for December also saw a rise of 0.6%, reaching $3,831.90 [1]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The political deadlock in Washington is a direct catalyst for the current surge in gold prices, with potential government shutdown impacting key economic reports, including the non-farm payrolls [6]. - Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have intensified, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance in December, driven by weak employment data [7]. - The stability of inflation, as indicated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, supports the market's belief in continued monetary easing [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Flows - There is a strong influx of funds into gold-related investment products, with the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increasing by 0.89% to 1,005.72 tons, the highest level since 2022 [9]. - The overall performance of the gold market has been robust, with prices increasing over 40% year-to-date and the potential for a third consecutive quarter of gains [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, anticipate that the upward trend in gold prices will continue, influenced by multiple favorable factors [12]. - The focus remains on political developments in Washington and the Federal Reserve's forthcoming actions, which will significantly impact market dynamics [12].

| 2023-00 | ZUZ4-UB | 00-6707 | 22 ETF-SPOR ETF-SLVIRET - 200 | 2025-09 | 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 | 一黄金基差(AuT+D-期货连续) | -- COMEX金银比价 | ●SHFE金银比价 | -- | -- 伦敦金现(右) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -- 白银价差(AgT+D-期货连续) | | | | | | | | | | | 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦 ...

新华财经北京9月29日电上周（9月22日至26日当周）国际金价在震荡后继续强势走高。当周，国际现货 黄金开盘3685.48美元／盎司，最高触及3791.09美元／盎司，当周上涨75.46美元或2.05%。 降息预期波动、超预期的宏观数据，叠加地缘风险及政治不确定性共同推动下，现货黄金上周再度刷新 纪录新高至3791美元／盎司后陷入短期震荡，但在美元走强的情况下，金价仍连续第六周收阳。 展望新的一周，市场的焦点将转向美国9月非农就业报告，这将是判断劳动力市场状况和美联储未来政 策路径的关键。同时，美联储官员也将陆续发声，加上美国政府在10月1日新财年开始前能否避免"停 摆"，以及全球地缘政治的新变化，都将成为搅动黄金市场短期剧烈波动的重要因素。 美联储降息后分歧严重美国8月核心PCE数据支持"渐进宽松" 其后，FOMC今年票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比警告不要进行一系列降息，称其对通胀问题仍存忧 虑，下次会议不愿支持降息。这一言论进一步促使金价从历史高位回落，低点一度跌至3717.57美元／ 盎司。 进入新的一周，美联储官员又将集体发声，或将再度引发市场降息预期的波动。加之美联储理事库克警 告最高法院，如果被解雇 ...

Group 1: Metals Gold - Trump's new tariffs and Fed rate cuts boost gold. Short - term, it's still bullish but may fluctuate during holidays [1] Silver - US economic data and Trump's tariffs increase Fed rate - cut uncertainty. Silver is short - term bullish with holiday risks [7] Iron Ore - Overseas shipments fall, arrival increases. Short - term price will fluctuate due to demand and capital factors [5] Rebar - Seasonal demand improves but inventory is high. Policy may support, so short - term price is under pressure [4] Copper (Not mentioned in the text) Aluminum (Not mentioned in the text) Group 2: Energy Crude Oil - Attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential sanctions support prices. Supply surplus remains. Suggest to wait and see [11] Natural Gas (Not mentioned in the text) Coal - Coke production drops slightly, but downstream procurement is active. Coal price will be stable before the holiday [5] Group 3: Chemicals Methanol - High domestic production, rising demand, and inventory decrease. Short - term, 01 contract may fluctuate weakly [2] Plastic - LLDPE price rises slightly, production drops, and inventory decreases. Demand improves. Short - term price will fluctuate [10] PVC (Not mentioned in the text) PTA (Not mentioned in the text) MEG (Not mentioned in the text) Styrene (Not mentioned in the text) Rubber - Supply may increase, downstream replenishment is mostly done. Short - term, price will fluctuate weakly [12] Asphalt - Supply increases, demand is affected by rain. Price will maintain a range - bound movement [13] Soda Ash - Supply is high, demand is average. 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term [9] Group 4: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - Affected by pre - holiday sentiment, it will mainly fluctuate strongly. Track import/export and inventory [6] Soybean - Domestic supply increases, demand is waiting for new grain. Short - term, it will be under pressure [6] Corn (Not mentioned in the text) Wheat (Not mentioned in the text) Sugar (Not mentioned in the text) Cotton (Not mentioned in the text) Live Pig - Supply exceeds demand, price is weak. Short - term, bounce space is limited [7] Group 5: Financial Products Treasury Bonds - Monetary policy is loose, real - estate policy may change. Long - term, it may be bearish for bonds [8] Stock Index Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Interest Rate Futures (Not mentioned in the text) Foreign Exchange Futures (Not mentioned in the text)

Core Insights - Gold prices have significantly increased due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, rising risk aversion, and continuous capital inflow, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.27% to $3789.8 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [1] - The performance of gold ETFs has also improved, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) increasing by 3.35% and Gold Stock ETF (159562) rising by 4.41% [1] Economic Data Summary - The revision of economic data has lowered the expectations for interest rate cuts, with the final value of the U.S. Q2 real personal consumption expenditures at 2.5%, above the expected 1.7% and previous 1.6% [1] - The final value of the U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate is 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and previous 3.3% [1] - The market's perception of the necessity for the Federal Reserve to cut rates has decreased, with the probability of maintaining rates in October rising from 10% to 15% [1] - The U.S. September S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.2, remaining above the expansion-contraction line [1] Market Analysis - Long-term support for gold prices is driven by global monetary debt, credit issues, and geopolitical factors, while short-term trading requires attention to volatility and the distinction between risk aversion and easing trades [1] - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue, but there may be a slowdown in momentum, and upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data could significantly impact macroeconomic trends [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices significantly increased due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, rising risk aversion, and continuous capital inflow, with COMEX gold futures up 2.27% to $3789.8 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [1] - Economic data revisions have lowered expectations for further interest rate cuts, with Q2 personal consumption expenditures revised to a 2.5% quarterly rate, above the expected 1.7% and previous 1.6% [1] - The Q2 annualized GDP growth rate was revised to 3.8%, exceeding both the expected and previous rates of 3.3% [1] Economic Data Impact - The market's perception of the necessity for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased, with the probability of maintaining rates in October rising from 10% to 15% [1] - The September S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.2, remaining above the expansion-contraction threshold [1] Market Analysis - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to global monetary debt, credit issues, and geopolitical factors, while short-term trading requires caution due to volatility [1] - The potential for upward momentum in gold prices remains, but short-term fluctuations may slow down, especially with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to impact macroeconomic trends [1]