1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and protein supply is generally in surplus, and the soybean meal market presents a situation of mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [2][4]. - The draft of the US biodiesel policy supports the central level of the oil market, but the upward space is restricted by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries. The oil market is expected to fluctuate [4][10]. - The sugar price may continue to decline due to weak real - world demand, a chaotic monthly spread structure, and high profit margins for out - of - quota imports [13]. - In the short term, the cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [16]. - For eggs, the mid - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to go short, while in the short term, it is advisable to reduce short positions at low prices or remain on the sidelines [19]. - For pork, it is recommended to go short at high prices for contracts in the second half of the year, and consider short - term long positions at low prices for near - term contracts before delivery [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean/Meal 3.1.1 Market Situation - US soybeans rose first and then fell on Thursday, and the market was closed on Friday. The good weather and global bumper harvest put pressure on US soybeans, but the valuation was slightly low, maintaining a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose about 10 yuan on Thursday, with the East China price at 2830 yuan/ton. The oil mill's开机率 remained high, and the soybean meal sales were average, with far - month sales increasing. The inventory of domestic port soybeans and oil mill soybean meal continued to accumulate [2]. - The cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2850 - 3020 yuan/ton. The current oil mill's crushing volume is at a record high in the same period, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has declined, the inventory accumulation rhythm has accelerated, and the domestic soybean meal valuation has been suppressed [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - In the soybean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. 3.2 Oil 3.2.1 Market Situation - On Thursday, the domestic oil market fluctuated. The US Senate's version 45Z bill stipulates that tax credits are only applicable to North American raw materials, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and drives the oil market. The EPA policy is favorable, but the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still negative factors in the oil market. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [9]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategy - The oil market is expected to fluctuate. Although the draft of the US biodiesel policy supports the central level of the oil market, the upward space is restricted [10]. 3.3 Sugar 3.3.1 Market Situation - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the September contract was 5767 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different trends. As of the end of June 2024/25, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, the sales rate increased, and the industrial inventory decreased year - on - year [12]. 3.3.2 Trading Strategy - The sugar price may continue to decline due to weak real - world demand, a chaotic monthly spread structure, and high profit margins for out - of - quota imports [13]. 3.4 Cotton 3.4.1 Market Situation - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the September contract was 13785 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The US 2025 cotton planting area is expected to be higher than market expectations, and the cotton good - quality rate has increased [15]. 3.4.2 Trading Strategy - In the short term, the cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the outcome of Sino - US negotiations [16]. 3.5 Eggs 3.5.1 Market Situation - The national egg price was generally stable. The supply was relatively sufficient, the downstream demand was diverse, and the egg price in the sales area was generally slow. It is expected that the egg price will be stable in most areas and may fluctuate slightly in some areas [18]. 3.5.2 Trading Strategy - The mid - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to go short, while in the short term, it is advisable to reduce short positions at low prices or remain on the sidelines [19]. 3.6 Pork 3.6.1 Market Situation - The domestic pork price mainly rose on the previous day, with some areas slightly falling. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream decreased, and it is expected that the supply from farmers will increase and the downstream will have more room to lower prices. The pork price may fall in the north and remain stable in the south [21]. 3.6.2 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to go short at high prices for contracts in the second half of the year, and consider short - term long positions at low prices for near - term contracts before delivery [22]. 3.7 Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, while the production showed a mixed trend, and the full - month production decreased by 0.65% month - on - month. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased week - on - week, and the cumulative export volume from August 1, 2024, to June 29, 2025, increased by 50.91% year - on - year [5]. - It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June 2025 will decrease by 0.24% month - on - month, production will decrease by 4.04% month - on - month, and exports will increase by 4.16% month - on - month [6].

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 环球时报特约记者 文远】美国总统特朗普2日在社交媒体上表示， 他已与越南方面达成贸易协议，美国将对越南出口到美国的商品征收20%的关税，并对任何被视为经越 南转运到美国的商品征收40%的关税。此外，特朗普还表示，越南已同意取消对美国进口商品的所有关 税。西方媒体称，美越达成的税率低于特朗普4月宣布的计划对越南商品征收的46%关税，有助于缓和 美国与越南的经贸关系紧张，但与5月美国与英国达成的协议一样，美越协议更像是一个框架，而非最 终确定的贸易协议。与此同时，距7月9日"对等关税"90天暂缓期结束越来越近之际，美国与日本、欧盟 等重要贸易伙伴的谈判仍在继续。荷兰国际集团认为，尽管可能会达成一些贸易协议，但贸易战和国际 贸易重新洗牌远未结束。 商家对 20% 关税仍不满 "我刚刚与越南达成一项贸易协议。"特朗普2日在"真实社交"网站上写道，"协议条款是，对运往美国境 内的所有货物，越南将向美国支付20%的关税，并对任何转运货物支付40%的关税。"特朗普还写道， 越南还将"向美国开放市场"，允许美国以零关税向越南销售美国商品。他认为，在美国市场表现良好的 SUV，将"很好补充"越 ...

Group 1: Digital Services Tax in Canada - Canada introduced a digital services tax aimed at global companies with annual revenues exceeding €750 million and Canadian digital service revenues over CAD 20 million, imposing a 3% tax on applicable revenues retroactive to 2022, projected to generate CAD 7.2 billion over five years [3] - The tax primarily targets major US tech companies such as Amazon, Google, and Meta, which are expected to be significantly impacted by this legislation [3] - Following pressure from the US, Canada announced the cancellation of the digital services tax just hours before it was set to take effect, indicating a willingness to negotiate with the US [3][4] Group 2: Hikvision's Operations in Canada - The Canadian government ordered Hikvision to cease operations, citing national security concerns based on a review under the Investment Canada Act, claiming that continued operations would harm national security [4] - Hikvision expressed strong opposition to the Canadian government's decision, arguing that the accusations lacked evidence and were influenced by geopolitical tensions rather than genuine security assessments [7] - The Canadian government's contrasting approaches towards the US and China reflect complex motivations, with economic dependence on the US influencing its decisions, while the actions against Hikvision align with US foreign policy towards China [9] Group 3: Economic and Political Implications - Canada’s economy is heavily reliant on the US market, with imports from the US totaling USD 349 billion and exports amounting to USD 413 billion, making it difficult for Canada to maintain a hardline stance against US trade threats [9] - The Canadian government may have initially sought to demonstrate strength through the digital services tax but ultimately chose to compromise to preserve overall relations with the US, which holds significant influence over Canada [9] - The differing responses to the US and China highlight the contradictions and challenges in Canada's foreign policy, raising questions about its ability to balance national interests with international relations [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the center of gravity gradually rising. Uncertainty about tariff policies boosts safe - haven demand, and the tax and spending bill increases US debt, which is beneficial for gold in the long - term. However, the Fed Chair's stance on July rate cuts and the possible rebound of the US dollar index may suppress precious metals. Silver is expected to follow gold's rise but may face limitations due to the slowdown of related metals and its own demand [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases continue, strengthening gold's monetary attribute. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 2, 2025, London gold spot was $3331.81/ounce, London silver spot was $35.95/ounce. Compared with July 1, gold prices were mostly flat, while silver prices declined, with London silver spot down 0.8% [3]. - **Price Differences and Ratios**: The price difference between gold TD and SHFE active contract decreased by 25.7%, and the price difference between silver TD and SHFE active contract decreased by 50.0%. The ratio of SHFE gold and silver main contracts increased by 0.7%, and the ratio of COMEX gold and silver main contracts increased by 1.0% [3]. 3.2 Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: As of July 1, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 948.23 tons, down 0.45% from June 30. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 2.81%, and COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 6.29% [3]. - **Inventory Data**: On July 2, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 18456.00 kg, up 0.02% from July 1, and SHFE silver inventory was 1338659.00 kg, down 0.01%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.30% [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - **US Economic Data**: As of July 2, 2025, the US dollar index was 96.65, up 0.02% from July 1. The 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.61%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.60% [4]. - **Other Market Data**: The S&P 500 index increased by 0.47%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.11% [4]. 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Fed's Stance**: Fed Chair Powell said most Fed members expect rate cuts later this year, and it's uncertain whether a July rate cut is too early. He also mentioned that the Trump tariff policy has affected the Fed's decision - making [4]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, better than expected. The May JOLTs job openings were 776.9 million, higher than expected [4]. - **Policy News**: On July 1, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, which was submitted to the House of Representatives for a vote on July 2 [4]. - **Geopolitical News**: Iran's President approved the suspension of cooperation with the IAEA, and Trump said he would not extend the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the severe supply chain congestion in Europe, exacerbated by the unpredictable tariff policies of the Trump administration and the impact of drought on river levels, leading to significant delays in major ports [1][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The EU estimates that U.S. tariffs cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, accounting for 70% of its total exports to the U.S. [1][6]. - The Trump administration's tariff policies have forced container shipping companies to adjust their networks, causing delays and disruptions in inventory management [3][5]. Group 2: Port Congestion - Major European ports, including Antwerp, Hamburg, and Rotterdam, are experiencing unprecedented congestion, with waiting times for vessels significantly increasing (e.g., 77% increase in Bremen and 49% in Hamburg) [1][3][4]. - The average waiting time for barges to load containers is reported to be 66 hours in Antwerp and 77 hours in Rotterdam [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Early signs indicate that tariffs have not yet significantly impacted the Eurozone economy, but forecasts suggest a slowdown in GDP growth in the coming quarters [7]. - The potential for a trade war could severely affect countries like Germany, Ireland, and Italy, which have high export ratios to the U.S. relative to their GDP [6][7]. Group 4: Negotiation Dynamics - The EU is preparing for potential retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods valued at €210 billion, with an additional list of €950 billion in products under consideration [6][8]. - Experts believe that both the U.S. and EU face geopolitical challenges that necessitate cooperation over confrontation, suggesting a framework agreement may be achievable before the upcoming deadline [8].

铜: 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80890，基差350，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：7月2日铜库存增2000至93250吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价偏强运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美 ...

Group 1 - Aluminerie Alouette, an aluminum manufacturer partially owned by Rio Tinto, plans to invest up to 1.5 billion CAD (1.1 billion USD) for modernization of its plant in Northern Quebec [1] - The company has reached a new electricity supply agreement with Hydro-Quebec, the provincial government’s electricity supplier [1] - This investment is seen as positive news for the aluminum industry, which is facing pressure from U.S. tariffs on aluminum imports [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported aluminum, which is expected to impact U.S. aluminum-consuming companies, such as Constellation Brands Inc., which anticipates a loss of approximately 20 million USD in the remaining fiscal year due to these tariffs [1] - Canada is the largest aluminum supplier to the U.S., and the U.S. lacks sufficient domestic aluminum smelting capacity to meet its demand [1] - Quebec produces 70% of North America's aluminum, highlighting its importance in meeting U.S. demand [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean and meal market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors. The domestic soybean meal valuation is under pressure, but the overall soybean or protein supply is still in excess. It requires a reduction in production at the raw material end to have upward momentum [2][4]. - The oil market is affected by the U.S. biodiesel policy draft, but the upside space is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major demand countries. It is expected to fluctuate [6][8]. - The sugar price may continue to decline due to factors such as weak real - demand during the delivery of the July contract of raw sugar, chaotic domestic monthly spread structure, and high profit from out - of - quota imports [10][11]. - The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate. The U.S. cotton planting intention report is negative, and the high cotton good rate is not conducive to cotton prices. Although the expectation of Sino - U.S. negotiations supports cotton prices, the fundamentals are not favorable [13][14]. - The egg price is expected to be stable in many places. Considering the current situation, the medium - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to short, and the short - term strategy for near - month contracts is to reduce short positions or wait and see [16][18]. - The pig price may stop rising and stabilize in some areas, and continue to rise in others. For near - term contracts, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices before delivery, while for下半年 contracts, short positions can be taken at high prices later [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the U.S. soybean rose driven by U.S. soybean oil. The U.S. Senate extended 45Z to 2029 and restricted tax credits for non - North American raw materials, which is beneficial to U.S. soybean oil. The good weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas puts pressure on U.S. soybeans, but the valuation is slightly low. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 10 yuan on Wednesday, the oil mill's operating rate is still high, and the far - month sales volume increased. The domestic port soybean inventory and oil mill soybean meal inventory are in an accumulation trend [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, while the production decreased slightly. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% month - on - month. The U.S. Senate's 45Z bill is beneficial to U.S. soybean oil, driving up the oil market. The EPA policy is beneficial to the oil market, but there are still negative factors due to the recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The U.S. biodiesel policy draft supports the oil price center, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price first fell and then rebounded. The spot price of sugar in various regions decreased slightly. As of the end of June 2024/25, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price may continue to decline [11]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated strongly. The U.S. 2025 cotton planting area is higher than expected, and the cotton good rate is higher than the same period last year. The domestic cotton price is supported by the expectation of Sino - U.S. negotiations, but the basis strengthening is not conducive to downstream consumption [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - U.S. negotiations [14]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price is mainly stable, with little change in supply and conservative demand [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The medium - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to short, and the short - term strategy for near - month contracts is to reduce short positions or wait and see [18]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price generally rose yesterday. The supply tension may be alleviated, but the downstream slaughter enterprises' willingness to accept high prices is poor [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices before delivery; for下半年 contracts such as 11 and 01, short positions can be taken at high prices later [21].

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

惠誉：贸易战和政策不确定性破坏2025年全球信用前景。 ...