Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the oil market entered a phase of rest and consolidation. The decrease in US EIA crude oil inventories and significant drawdowns in refined oil products supported a slight increase in oil prices. PX prices are close to pre - rally levels, with solid bottom support due to low inventory. PX's future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PTA prices declined slightly due to concerns about downstream polyester factory production cuts, with its inventory in a downward absolute - value trend but at a near - five - year high relative value. Polyester products are expected to follow the decline in oil prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a mixed supply - side price trend, with expected tightening of market supply and potential improvement in downstream demand. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 26, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.73 per barrel, up 0.07%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $568.75 per ton, down 1.81%. Isomer - grade xylene FOB Korea was $725 per ton, down 0.21%. PX CFR China Main Port was $853 per ton, up 0.51% [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.42%; settlement price was 4,762 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. Near - month contract closing price was 4,976 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; settlement price was 4,974 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. Domestic PTA spot price was 5,023 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 5,025 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; foreign price index was $642 per ton (as of June 25), down 0.93%. Near - far month spread was 212 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; basis was 255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [1] - **PX**: CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.53%; settlement price was 6,710 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,854 yuan per ton, down 0.93%; settlement price was 6,848 yuan per ton, down 1.50%. Domestic PX spot price was 6,889 yuan per ton, unchanged. PX CFR Taiwan was $853 per ton, up 0.35%; FOB Korea was $828 per ton, up 0.36%. PXN spread was $284.25 per ton, up 5.50%; PX - MX spread was $128 per ton, up 4.77%. Basis was 167 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; settlement price was 5,936 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,010 yuan per ton, down 0.56%; settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market polyester bottle - chip price was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; South China market was 6,120 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market basis was 120 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; South China market basis was 190 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On June 26, 2025, CCFEI polyester DTY price index was 9,150 yuan per ton, down 0.54%; POY was 7,425 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; FDY68D and FDY150D were both 7,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,785 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester chip was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; bottle - grade chip was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Production and Operation Information - **Operating Rate**: On June 26, 2025, PX operating rate was 80.43%, down 2.27 percentage points; PTA factory load rate was 78.56%, unchanged; polyester factory load rate was 89.35%, down 0.66 percentage points; bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.20%, down 2.26 percentage points; Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 65.10%, down 2.54 percentage points [1] - **Sales Rate**: On June 26, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 28%, up 6 percentage points; polyester staple fiber sales rate was 43%, down 12 percentage points; polyester chip sales rate was 40%, down 6 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. A 1 - million - ton PX plant in Shandong has started its scheduled maintenance, maintaining a tight - balance situation in the domestic market [2] Trading Strategy - PTA's TA2509 contract closed at 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX's PX2509 contract closed at 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.44%, with a trading volume of 290,400 lots. PR's 2509 contract closed at 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.40%, with a trading volume of 60,700 lots. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The EIA weekly data report shows that inventories decreased across the board, and the apparent demand for gasoline strengthened [1] Group 2: Key Data - As of June 20, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 415.106 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 5.836 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 800,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 464,000 barrels, while strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels. Distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels, also contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels [2] Group 3: Data Changes - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.836 million barrels from June 13 to June 20 [3] - U.S. strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels during the same period [3] - U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels [3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels per day, and net imports increased by 531,000 barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume increased by 125,000 barrels per day [3] - The four-week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 67,750 barrels per day, and gasoline apparent demand increased by 59,000 barrels per day [3] Group 4: Report Analysis - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell below the five-year seasonal low for the second consecutive week. Strong refinery demand and low net imports contributed to the decline [4] - The EIA report is relatively positive. Both surface and internal data are strong, with significant inventory decreases and improving demand [6] - Gasoline demand has recovered, leading to an unexpected decline in gasoline inventories despite high refinery utilization. Gasoline inventories are generally neutral [9] - Distillate demand has improved marginally but remains relatively low compared to the same period in previous years [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-26原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2508： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普对伊以战争迅速结束表示欢迎，并表示华盛顿可能会在下周与伊朗官员会谈， 寻求德黑兰承诺结束其核野心；美联储主席鲍威尔对参议院金融委员会表示，特朗普政府的关税计划很可 能只会导致物价一次性上涨，但引发更持久通胀的风险大到足以让美联储在考虑进一步降息时保持谨慎； 中性 2.基差：6月25日，阿曼原油现货价为67.88美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.88美元/桶，基4.74元/ 桶，现货平水期货；中性 3.库存：美国截至6月20日当周API原油库存减少427.7万桶，预期减少18. ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a rebound on June 25, driven by a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with WTI crude rising by $0.55 to $64.92 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by $0.54 to $67.68 per barrel [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of a 797,000-barrel decline [1][2] - Gasoline and distillate inventories also saw declines of 2.1 million barrels and 4.1 million barrels, respectively, both below the five-year average by approximately 3% [1] Group 2 - The average daily crude oil processing volume at U.S. refineries increased by 125,000 barrels to 17 million barrels, with an average utilization rate of 94.7%, up from 93.2% the previous week [1] - The average daily gasoline supply rose by 389,000 barrels to 9.688 million barrels, marking the highest level since December 2021, indicating a significant rebound in fuel demand due to summer travel [1] - The daily net crude oil imports increased by 531,000 barrels to 1.674 million barrels [1] Group 3 - The Cushing region's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 500,000 barrels to 22.2 million barrels, while the strategic petroleum reserve rose by 237,000 barrels to 40.2 million barrels [2] - U.S. daily crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels to 13.435 million barrels [2] - Analysts noted that the decline in inventories across major refined products could shift market focus back to U.S. supply and demand dynamics rather than Middle Eastern tensions [2] Group 4 - Despite easing tensions in the Middle East, supply-demand conditions remain high, indicating ongoing market sensitivity to geopolitical factors [2] - Analysts suggest that oil prices have returned to key levels prior to the outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel, with potential for a return to economic fundamentals if geopolitical risks diminish [2][3] - Short-term momentum for oil prices has weakened, with the possibility of continued low-level fluctuations before a significant rebound occurs [3]

油价在此前的大幅下挫后上涨，美伊会谈成为焦点 WTI原油 金十数据6月25日讯，油价在本周早些时候大幅下挫后涨超1%，交易商将焦点放在了美国与伊朗的会谈 上。在以色列和伊朗达成停火协议后，原油期货迅速遭到抛售，本周跌幅超过10%。特朗普表示，在美 国打击伊朗核设施后，他认为没有必要与伊朗达成核协议，但下周将举行会谈。与此同时，EIA最新数 据显示，上周美国原油库存减少了580万桶，远高于分析师估计的130万桶，连续第五周下降。汽油和精 炼油库存也有所下降，表明美国需求状况良好。 ...

金十数据整理：美国当周EIA库存数据六大看点一览 4. EIA报告：美国原油产品四周平均供应量为2004.9万桶/日，较去年同期减少1.6%。 5. EIA报告：06月20日当周美国战略石油储备（SPR）库存增加23.7万桶至4.025亿桶，增幅0.06%。 6.EIA报告：06月20日当周美国除却战略储备的商业原油进口594.4万桶/日，较前一周增加44.0万桶/日。 WTI原油 1. EIA报告：06月20日当周美国原油出口减少9.1万桶/日至427.0万桶/日。 2. EIA报告：06月20日当周美国国内原油产量增加0.4万桶至1343.5万桶/日。 3. EIA报告：除却战略储备的商业原油库存减少583.6万桶至4.15亿桶，降幅1.39%。 ...

EIA称美国上周原油库存减少584万桶 智通财经6月25日电，EIA数据显示，美国一周原油库存减少583.6万桶，市场预估为减少79.7万桶。 ...

美国至6月20日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical situations. The U.S. announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and Iran declared retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A cease - fire between Israel and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Fundamentally, EIA U.S. commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, global oil inventories were basically flat, and diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The oil futures monthly spread continued to strengthen, approaching the 2022 level. The medium - to - long - term fundamental oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are greatly amplified by geopolitical factors [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From June 18 - 24, 2025, WTI decreased from $75.14 to $64.37, a change of - $4.14; BRENT decreased from $76.70 to $67.14, a change of - $4.34; DUBAI decreased from $70.84 to $69.13, a change of - $0.75. Other related products also showed price changes, such as SC decreasing by 55.90 yuan, and domestic gasoline - BRT increasing by 262.00 yuan [3] 2. Daily News - On June 24, Iranian President Pezeshkian announced that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel ended, and reconstruction work would start. Israel's plot to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and cause social unrest failed, while its important facilities were damaged. Israel's Prime Minister's Office confirmed the attack on an Iranian radar facility and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [3] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 427.7 million barrels, compared with an expected - 18.3 million barrels and a previous value of - 1013.3 million barrels [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 1.075 million barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 0.3 million barrels to 13.431 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 2.65% decrease), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.23 million barrels to 402.3 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.672 million barrels per day to 5.504 million barrels per day. The U.S. four - week average supply of crude oil products was 19.981 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease from the same period last year [4] - In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, the Shandong local refinery operating rate fell, the production of gasoline and diesel increased, the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased, gasoline and diesel were stocked up, the main refinery comprehensive profit rebounded, and the local refinery comprehensive profit improved [4]

Group 1 - The Summer Davos Forum is scheduled to take place [1] - NATO heads of state and government will hold a summit [1] - Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for June will be released at 16:00 [3] Group 2 - The UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations for June will be announced at 18:00 [4] - The US current account for Q1 and Canada's CPI for May will be reported at 20:30 [5] - The US FHFA House Price Index for April and the S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index for April will be released at 21:00 [6] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech at 21:00 [6] - Federal Reserve's Harker will discuss monetary policy at 21:15 [7] - The US Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June will be published at 22:00 [8] Group 4 - Fed Chair Powell will present the semi-annual monetary policy report at 22:00 [8] - Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee meeting at 22:00 [8] - Fed's Harker will participate in a panel discussion at 22:15 [9] Group 5 - Fed's Williams will speak the following day at 00:30 [10] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending June 20 will be released at 04:30 [11]