Group 1 - Gold prices have strongly broken through the $5200 per ounce mark, driven by two main catalysts: Trump's increase of global import tariffs to 15% and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran [1][3] - The increase in tariffs has raised inflation expectations and heightened concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline and the credibility of the dollar, leading to a weaker dollar index and a surge in gold prices [3][6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is at a critical point, with the U.S. considering limited military strikes against Iran, which adds to market risk premiums [3][8] Group 2 - The recent performance of gold is a typical case of macro narratives resonating with short-term events, particularly the impact of tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [3] - The market has seen a significant increase in gold-related ETFs, with the Gold Stock ETF (517400) rising by 4.75% and the Gold ETF (518800) increasing by 3.50% [2] - Historical patterns suggest that after confirming a mid-term bottom, gold often experiences a new upward trend during periods of declining volatility [5][11] Group 3 - The long-term investment logic for gold remains strong, supported by three core pillars: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, global de-dollarization, and ongoing geopolitical risks [7][12] - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, indicating a strategic shift in asset allocation [7][12] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to rise due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the challenges facing the dollar credit system [12] Group 4 - Investors are encouraged to consider both gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs, with the latter offering higher earnings elasticity during rising gold price phases [9][10] - The current valuation of gold stocks remains within a historically reasonable range, suggesting potential for performance and valuation recovery as gold prices rise [10][11] - The market is witnessing a shift from "precious metals" to "precious metal equity assets," highlighting the growing appeal of gold stocks in a recovering risk appetite environment [10]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2月23日，COMEX黄金继续震荡上行，报收5247.9美元/盎司，涨幅3.29%。国内SHFE金适逢春节，延 续休盘。 从业资格：F03097365 春节期间，外盘贵金属行情可分为两个阶段。上半场，市场沉浸在对美联储政策转向的重新定价之中。 美国1月非农就业数据的意外强劲与CPI数据显示的通胀粘性，让"降息延迟"乃至"加息遐想"的鹰派阴影 笼罩市场。尤其是美联储1月货币政策会议纪要所揭示的内部显著分歧，叠加新任美联储主席人选提名 引发的政策路径猜测，现货金价一度跌破5000美元/盎司关键心理关口，白银是呈现出剧烈波动。下半 场，行情因地缘政治强势回升。随着美国向中东调遣重兵，伊朗核问题谈判阴云密布，战争风险的弦骤 然绷紧。与此同时，美国商务部公布的远不及预期的2025年四季度GDP初值（1.4%）与疲软的PMI数 据，"滞胀"预期再次降临。结合美国最高法院于2026年2月20日裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》大规模加征关税的做法违法，宏观数据的疲软与避险情绪形成合力，推动金银价格在假期尾声强 势收复失地。 后续来看，"去美元化"、" ...

地缘风险持续升温，美伊第二轮间接谈判刚结束，美国即向中东增派第二支航母打击群，威胁加码。与此同时，俄军对基辅发动大规模导弹袭击。地缘冲突 升温直接推升油价避险溢价，国际油价再度突破70美元大关。石油板块持续吸金，聚焦全产业链工具石油ETF近20日净流入超21亿元。 事件聚焦：美伊博弈成油价核心变量 本周石油市场的事件驱动特征极为鲜明，核心焦点仍是美伊博弈的反复与升级。 据新华社消息，美国和伊朗第二轮间接谈判于2月17日在瑞士日内瓦举行。会后伊朗外长表示"双方仍需要进一步沟通"——这一表态本身即暗示分歧犹存。 更关键的是，谈判尚未降温，美国便从加勒比海向中东地区调遣第二支航母打击群，威胁同步加码。与此同时，俄军22日凌晨对基辅州展开大规模导弹与无 人机袭击，已造成人员伤亡。两大地缘热点同时升温，市场对供应中断的担忧迅速转化为风险溢价。 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2026/1/1-2026/2/23 银河证券表示，地缘冲突对油价的影响取决于两大要素——一是冲突是否涉及全球主要产油国，二是是否对关键原油运输通道构成实质性威胁。伊朗恰恰兼 具产油国与霍尔木兹海峡控制者的双重战略身份，这使得任何围绕伊朗的局势动荡， ...

因此，华福证券认为，中长期而言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核 心，长期配置价值不改。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间2月24日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨3.29%报5247.90美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货涨6.87%报88.00美元/盎司。 东吴证券也认为，中长期来看，"去美元化"叙事仍难以证伪，黄金依然处于上行区间；同时，美国关税收入预期落空 引发了市场对美国财政赤字的担忧，四季度GDP增速显著低于市场预期，滞胀预期升温下，贵金属为代表的抗通胀品 种受益。 华福证券近日发布研报指出，美国一系列宏观经济数据发布，就业数据韧性及美联储官员一系列偏鹰派言论削弱市场 降息预期，市场主流对首次降息预期从此前6月延后至7月；但美国非农数据的亮眼表现难掩其经济结构脆弱性本质， 市场更倾向于其为美联储为后续政策保留空间的预期管理手段，且由于近年来相关数据的大幅下修的失真表现，市场 对实际就业市场情况存在分歧。 ...

Group 1 - The global macro environment has been uncertain since the beginning of the year, highlighting the investment value of gold and resource commodities [1] - The metal sector has undergone significant repricing and is now considered a high-quality asset with strong data support, characterized by high prosperity and anti-inflation properties [1] - Gold ETFs and mining-related products have seen active trading, benefiting from global risk aversion and de-dollarization trends, maintaining high investment enthusiasm for gold [1] Group 2 - The copper and aluminum industries are experiencing cyclical benefits, with copper prices expected to rise due to tightening raw material supply from global smelting capacity expansion between 2025 and 2027 [1] - The aluminum sector is benefiting from domestic capacity policies and increased investments in new energy and power grids, with a long-term trend towards the value of "green electricity aluminum" [1] - Emerging demand driven by AI servers is pushing tin prices upward, with global refined tin supply and demand expected to remain in a tight balance through 2026 [1] Group 3 - Mining ETFs (561330) focus on upstream resources, covering various commodities such as copper, gold, lithium, rare earths, and aluminum, providing stronger performance elasticity and diversified risk management [2] - The constituent stocks are primarily leading companies that directly own mineral resources, benefiting significantly during commodity price upcycles [2] - Investors are advised to maintain rationality in high-volatility resource markets and consider a phased investment approach, balancing long-term growth logic with short-term volatility [2]

白银 工业消费仍具韧性 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 春节假期期间，外盘金属携手攀升。COMEX白银涨幅在12%左右，领跑新春行情。受地缘政治紧张及 美国关税政策不确定性引发的避险情绪支撑，全球白银投资需求依旧强劲。国际铜价先抑后扬，温和上 行，供应偏紧格局仍对铜价形成显著支撑。外盘锂期货价格以小幅上涨为主。 春节假期期间，外盘金银价格呈现先抑后扬走势。目前来看，美国关税政策仍具有较高的不确定性，在 避险情绪支撑下，内盘贵金属或跟随外盘呈现震荡偏强走势。中长期来看，美国联邦政府债务规模持续 攀升，去美元化浪潮将不断加速。叠加美联储仍处于降息周期、全球地缘局势依然复杂等，贵金属价格 中枢将继续上移。 美东时间2月20日上午，美国联邦最高法院公布了外界等待已久的特朗普关税案裁决结果。美国联邦最 高法院以6票对3票的结果，认定特朗普政府所援引的《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA），在法理上并 没有授权美国总统征收关税。特朗普在加征全球"对等关税"，以及针对加拿大、墨西哥、中国、印度、 巴西、伊朗等国家加征"芬太尼关税"等国别关税时，正是以全文中并没有提及"关税"一 ...

美国国债总额首次突破37万亿美元大关，这个数字意味着什么？ 它超过了中国和欧元区债务的总和。 从36万亿到37万亿，这个天文数字的增长只用了不到9 个月时间。 自2023年6月以来，美国债务正以平均每100天增加约1万亿美元的速度疯涨。 按照这个速度，一些分析认为，到2030年，美国国债可能突破50万 亿美元。 2025年10月，美国单月财政赤字就达到了创纪录的2844亿美元。 为了刺激经济、维持庞大的社会福利和军事开支，美国政府花的钱远远超过了它收上来的 税。 以2020年疫情期间为例，仅一项《新冠病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》就批准了高达2.2万亿美元的资金。 这种大规模的支出，使得当年财政赤字占 GDP的比例飙升至14.9%。 美元作为国际核心货币的特殊地位，为这种债务模式提供了关键支撑。 由于美元是全球主要的储备和交易货币，美国可以凭借货币发行权，几乎不受限制 地印刷美元。 当面临财政赤字时，美国政府就通过发行国债来筹钱，而这些国债又被全球各国的央行和投资者大量持有。 因为其他国家为了维持国际贸易 和汇率稳定，不得不储备美元资产，这就使得美国能够将债务"转嫁"给全球。 自1985年从净债权国变为净债务 ...

2025年11月，中国再度减持61亿美元美国国债，将持有规模压降至6826亿美元，创下2008年全球金融危机以来的最低点。 与2008年那场危机中中国增持美债的选择相反，这次中国持续减持美债，转而连续14个月增持黄金。这种操作折射出全球货币体系正在经历一场静默革命， 美元霸权根基悄然松动。 简单来说，美国债务规模的膨胀速度令人瞠目。2025年8月，美国国债总额首次突破37万亿美元，随后在10月攀升至37.85万亿美元，相当于每个美国公民背 负超过11万美元债务。 债务雪球越滚越大，利息支出成为美国政府财政的沉重负担。2025年美国国债的总利息支出预计超过1.3万亿美元，这一数字首次超越美国国防预算，成为 联邦政府的巨大财政黑洞。 国际评级机构穆迪在2025年5月采取行动，将美国主权信用评级从最高的"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"，至此美国失去了三大国际评级机构的全部AAA评级。 美国政治极化现象进一步侵蚀美债信用基础。2025年10月1日，美国联邦政府陷入长达43天的历史性停摆，数十万政府雇员拿不到工资，公共服务陷入停 滞。这种政治失能让海外持有国担忧美国债务偿还能力的稳定性。 而与中国减持美债同步，中国人民银行正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, providing a positive reference for the A-share market as it prepares to open. The performance of overseas assets and Hong Kong stocks during the holiday is expected to be a key indicator for sector rotation in the A-share market [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rally, contributing to a positive atmosphere for the A-share market's opening [1][9]. - During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock index fluctuated but ultimately rose, while the U.S. stock index saw only slight increases [2][10]. - Gold prices showed a four-day winning streak, indicating a strong performance in the precious metals sector [2][11]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The Hong Kong market displayed structural trends, with sectors such as technology, internet, consumer electronics, and lithium batteries leading the gains. Notable stocks included Meituan, Tencent, and Alibaba [3][11]. - The optical fiber and cable leader, Longi Fiber Optic, saw its stock price double this year, driven by increased demand for high-fiber-count cables due to AI data center construction [12]. - Shipping and port stocks rose significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with China Merchants Energy's stock increasing nearly 90% since the beginning of the year [12]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Several funds heavily invested in Hong Kong stocks saw substantial gains, particularly in sectors like AI hardware, gold, innovative pharmaceuticals, and oil transportation, with some stocks rising over 10% during the A-share market's closure [11][12]. - Some innovative pharmaceutical companies in Hong Kong, such as Hang Seng Biotechnology and Hang Seng Healthcare, reported year-to-date gains exceeding 10% [4][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect structural opportunities in the A-share market to continue, with resource products and AI sectors remaining the main focus for capital [15]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain demand for gold, with expectations of a continued bull market for gold over the next 2-3 years [15][16]. - Investment strategies are suggested to focus on high-growth sectors like AI hardware and applications, as well as undervalued sectors that may experience fundamental improvements and valuation recovery [17].

来源：每日经济新闻 马年，我们都在祝亲朋好友"马上有福"。 那么这一次，A股哪些方向有望"马上就涨"？ 本文将大致以热点板块为脉络，先结合春节假期的消息面带大家梳理。 （1）贵金属 2月22日，国际金价重新站上5100美元/盎司关口，2月23日交易时段继续逼近5200美元关口。 经过多日休整，明天（2月24日），A股即将开启农历马年行情。 截至2月13日，万得全A周K线 和过去的多个长假一样，A股休市期间，宏观、外围乃至各个行业的消息面依然爆棚。不论乐观还是悲 观，节前参与"埋伏"的资金终于盼来了开奖时刻。 | | F9 不复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 안 | 伦敦金现 | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/07/14-2026/02/23(159日)▼ | 5160.760 | | +49.635 +0.97% | | 5598.750-> | | IDC USD 9:48:22 | | 1 . . + | | | | | 5161.970 | | | | 5500.000 | 武 | 5160.760 | | | | | 总量 | ...