Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has short-term support at the 25,000 point level, with expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2026 following the Federal Reserve's recent 0.25% rate cut, which aligns with market predictions [1] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing investment and addressing supply-demand imbalances, with a slight increase in growth signals compared to previous meetings [1] - The HSI has seen significant gains this year, leading to profit-taking incentives as trading volume decreases [1] Company News - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is acquiring a 49% stake in Northern SMIC for a total consideration of 40.6 billion RMB, enhancing its asset quality and business synergy [3][10] - Meituan is distributing 45 million large consumption vouchers to consumers, aiming to boost sales during the promotional period [3][10] - Wall Street's recent performance shows a decline, with the Dow and Nasdaq both down by 0.5% [5] Industry Insights - The AI chip sector is gaining traction, with companies like Birran Technology seeing oversubscription of over 1,890 times in their public offering [3][10] - The electric vehicle export from China surged by 87% year-on-year in November, indicating strong demand in international markets [8] - The Chinese government plans to lower import tariffs on key components and battery materials starting January 1, 2026, to support technological advancement and economic growth [8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3%, while lowering the inflation forecast to 2.4% [3] - Hong Kong's exports rose by 18.8% and imports by 18.1% in November, exceeding market expectations [8] - The profit of state-owned enterprises in China decreased by 3.1% year-on-year in the first eleven months of the year, with total revenue reaching 75.63 trillion RMB [8]

2025年12月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：资金平仓，价格回调 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：跟随铜 | 11 | | 氧化铝：横盘震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 铂：资金离场开启回撤 | 13 | | 钯：跟随铂金撤步 | 13 | | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 15 | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 黄金：通胀温和回落 白银：高位调整 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 ...

Market Overview - On December 30, A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44% at 3947.87 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.52% at 13466.3 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.44% at 3208.32 points [1] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced a collective pullback, with silver and non-ferrous metals hitting the limit down, and companies like Yunnan Copper and Jiangxi Copper also declining [1] Company News - Longpan Technology's subsidiary has been operating its lithium iron phosphate production line at full capacity but will reduce production by approximately 5,000 tons for maintenance starting January 1, 2026, without significant impact on 2026 performance [2] - Ganfeng Lithium received a notice regarding an insider trading case, but its operations remain normal [2] - Shenjian Co. reported that its commercial aerospace revenue is only 371.24 million yuan, accounting for 0.20% of its total revenue for Q3 2025 [2] - Tianqi Co. plans to raise up to 977 million yuan for projects related to automotive equipment and robotics [2] - WISCO Development is planning a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of stakes in WISCO Mining and Luzhong Mining, with stock suspension expected for up to 10 trading days [3] Industry Insights - The silver market saw prices near $80 per ounce, reaching over $83 before a significant drop, influenced by margin increases by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [6] - The humanoid robot sector is expanding, with Yushu Technology set to open its first store in Beijing and launch a dedicated app store for robot applications [7] - At least 10 commercial aerospace companies are pursuing IPOs, with new regulations from the Shanghai Stock Exchange aimed at facilitating listings for commercial rocket firms [8] - The copper foil substrate industry is experiencing price increases due to rising copper prices and supply chain issues, with a forecast of continued price hikes in 2025-2026 [9] - The digital currency sector is set for a new framework launch by the People's Bank of China on January 1, 2026, enhancing the management and infrastructure for digital yuan [10] - The carbon fiber market is expected to see price increases starting January 2026, with major producers announcing hikes of 10% to 20% [11] - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting consumption through various initiatives, including subsidies for replacing consumer goods [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment outlooks and trend analyses for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading suggestions and risk warnings [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation and macro - news. The trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment. The price shows a downward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: Capital outflows lead to a retracement. The price drops significantly, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. - **Palladium**: It follows platinum's retracement. The price also shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Capital liquidation causes price corrections. The price experiences a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits price declines. The price shows a slight decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The price drops, and the trend strength is 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It follows copper. The price movement is related to copper, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: It is in a sideways oscillation. The price remains relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It shows a slight decline. The price drops slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals restrict elasticity, but attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied in some products)**: Affects the prices of downstream products such as fuel oil and chemicals. For example, the price of fuel oil may be affected by crude oil price fluctuations [126]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session fluctuations increase, and it may maintain strength in the short term. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strong - side oscillation, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the outer market is temporarily stable. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillation market. The supply increases, and the demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to pay attention to position management before the holiday, and the trend strength is 0 [2][64][69]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The port inventory accumulates, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is 0 [2][64][70]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][113]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand tightens, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][114]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the rebound space is limited. The trend strength is 0 [2][122]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related (Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil)**: - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][159][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean drive is not significant, and it is mainly operated within a range. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. - **Soybean**: It is in an oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][163]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound arrangement. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][167]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price corrects. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][172]. - **Eggs**: They are in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][178]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and they are strong in the short term. The price shows an upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill acquisitions. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][187]. - **Palm Oil**: It has a short - term rhythm rebound, but the height is limited. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. Others - **Iron Ore**: It is in a high - level repetition. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][45]. - **Rebar**: Macroeconomic support and industrial suppression coexist, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, with macroeconomic support and industrial suppression, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Silicon Iron**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut starts, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Year - end production cuts disrupt, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Log**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][60]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][89]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][96]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][99]. - **Urea**: It runs in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][103]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term oscillation mainly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][151]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][128].

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日 星期二 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一两市主要指数震荡整理，收盘涨跌不一，商业航天板块继续走强。两市成交额 | | | | | 2.13 万亿元，变化不大。中证 500 指数收 7430 点，跌 28 点，跌幅-0.38%；中证 | | | | | 1000 指数收 7594 点，跌 11 点，跌幅-0.15%；沪深 300 指数收 4639 点，跌 17 点， | | | | | 跌幅-0.38%；上证 50 指数收 3034 点，跌 10 点，跌幅-0.35%。行业与主题 ETF 中 | | | | | 涨幅居前的是航天 ETF、通用航空 ETF 基金、航空 ETF、中韩半导体 ETF、军工龙头 | | | | | ETF，跌幅居前的是稀有金属 ET ...

全国财政工作会议在北京召开 12月28日，全国财政工作会议落幕。会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化 政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。五 是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 会议要求，2026年财政工作抓好以下重点任务。一是坚持内需主导，支持建设强大国内市场。二是支持科技创新和产业创新深度融合，加快培 育壮大新动能。三是推进城乡融合和区域联动，拓展发展空间。四是进一步强化保基本、兜底线，切实加强民生保障。（财政部官网） ｜点评｜ 今年国内经济复苏节奏稍缓，财政部明确表示明年将实施更加积极的财政政策，继续为明年经济修复保驾护航。从财政部的表述中 看，明年的财政政策在规模上预计略大于今年，总规模大幅增加的可能性不高。从政策的实施方向上看，更加注重结构优化和资金效率。例如 今年"国补"政策对消费市场起到了一定的提振效果，但政策资金的使用方式、产品覆盖面等方面还有优化空间，明年同类政策的实施方式或将 有所调整。 值得注意的是，会议内容中关于"内需"与"民生"的表述明显 ...

来源：光大证券微资讯 热点聚焦 HOT 1、受大宗商品巨幅波动引发的紧张情绪推动，隔夜，美股三大指数均小幅收跌，道指跌0.51%，纳指 跌0.5%，标普500指数跌0.35%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.67%。由于乌克兰停火谈判进展有限，国 际油价涨超2%。WTI原油期货收涨2.36%，报58.08美元/桶。布油期货结算价收涨2.14%，报61.94美元/ 桶。 2、隔夜，国际贵金属大幅收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌4.45%，报4350.2美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货跌 7.2%，报71.64美元/盎司。现货白银大跌近9%，现货钯金跌超15%，现货铂金跌超14%。30日7:05，现 货钯金跌破1600美元/盎司，日内跌超2%。现货铂金跌幅扩大至2%，最低报2049.38美元/盎司。据报 道，大量交易员正在从创纪录涨势中获利了结，加剧了贵金属下跌势头。 5、12月29日晚间，天箭科技发布重大风险提示公告：因相关军品价格调整，公司预计2025年度扣非归 母净利润将为负值，且扣除后营业收入低于3亿元。公司股票可能被实施退市风险警示，将冠 以"*ST"字样。11月以来，公司已收获4个涨停板，年内涨幅超60%。同日， ...

第一财经每日早间精选热点新闻，点击「听新闻」，一键收听。 【今日推荐】 科技行业低迷美股全线下挫，白银暴跌刷新46年历史纪录 受科技板块走弱拖累，美股在周一全线下跌。截至收盘，道指跌249.04点，跌幅0.51%，报48461.93 点，纳指跌0.50%，报23474.35点，标普500指数跌0.35%，报6905.74点。贵金属市场因获利回吐等原因 大幅下挫，纽约商品交易所12月交割COMEX黄金期货跌4.50%，报4325.10美元/盎司，为近两个月最大 跌幅，白银期货跌8.67%，报69.856美元/盎司，创2021年2月来最差表现，日内下挫超6美元则刷新了 1980年1月以来最高纪录。 国务院关税税则委员会：明年起对部分商品进口关税税率和税目进行调整 国务院关税税则委员会发布《2026年关税调整方案》，将自2026年1月1日起实施。为增强国内国际两个 市场两种资源的联动效应，扩大优质商品供给，2026年对935项商品实施低于最惠国税率的进口暂定税 率。 两部门：烟草企业的烟草广告费和业务宣传费支出，一律不得在计算应纳税所得额时扣除 财政部、税务总局发布关于广告费和业务宣传费支出税前扣除有关事项的公告。 ...

Market Overview - Precious metals and US stocks experienced a pullback, with major tech stocks like Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta declining due to reduced bets by traders ahead of year-end [1] - Tesla led the decline with a drop of 3.27%, impacted by a significant reduction in its supply contract with South Korea's L&F [29] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 1.75 basis points to 4.11%, while the dollar remained stable [1] - Bitcoin briefly surged above $90,000 before falling back below $87,000, and Ethereum also saw a significant drop [1] - Silver prices plummeted over 8% after briefly surpassing $80, while gold fell approximately 4.5%, marking its largest single-day drop since late October [1] Key News - The People's Bank of China announced that a new digital RMB framework will officially launch on January 1, 2026, transitioning from a cash-based to a deposit currency model [15][31] - A major European bank is rumored to have faced a short squeeze in silver futures, leading to a forced liquidation due to a failure to meet a $2.3 billion margin call [16] - Trump is considering legal action against Powell for "gross incompetence" and may announce a new Fed chair candidate in January [17] Company Developments - Tesla significantly reduced its high-nickel battery material order from South Korea's L&F by approximately 99% due to project delays and changing consumer preferences [29] - Meta is reportedly acquiring Manus for several billion dollars, marking its third-largest acquisition to date [19] - The Hong Kong IPO of Zhiyuan Technology is priced at HKD 116.2 per share, with plans to issue over 37 million shares [19] Industry Insights - Analysts predict that silver could challenge the $100 mark by 2026, but the opportunity for low-risk, high-reward investments has diminished [21] - The logistics industry in China is expected to continue its growth, with a projected total social logistics volume of CNY 380 trillion by 2025 [34] - The hydrogen energy sector is advancing, with a significant breakthrough in a 30MW pure hydrogen gas turbine project [36]

Group 1: Digital Currency and Financial Infrastructure - The People's Bank of China has released an action plan for the management and service system of digital RMB, set to officially launch on January 1, 2026 [1] - As of November 2025, digital RMB has processed a total of 3.48 billion transactions, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan [1] - The digital RMB app has opened 230 million personal wallets, with 18.84 million unit wallets established [1] Group 2: Investment Funds and Capital Markets - The establishment of the Chengtong Science and Technology Investment Fund (Jiangsu) with a capital of 10 billion yuan, focusing on venture capital and private equity investments [2] - Two ETFs from Huaxia Fund have been listed in Thailand using the DR model, marking a significant step in the internationalization of Chinese ETFs [5] Group 3: Company Capital Increases - Dongguan Jimu Machinery Co., a subsidiary of Huawei, has increased its registered capital from 3.89 billion yuan to approximately 4.689 billion yuan, a rise of about 21% [3] - Guangzhou Huitian Flying Car Manufacturing Co. has raised its registered capital from 650 million yuan to 900 million yuan, an increase of approximately 38% [4] - Guangzhou Yu Xin Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Co. has increased its registered capital from 6.5 billion yuan to 7.5 billion yuan, a rise of about 15% [6] Group 4: Technological Innovations - AI² Robotics has launched the world's first modular embodied intelligent service space, "Zhimofang," in Beijing and Shenzhen, with plans to deploy 1,000 units across various commercial and cultural venues in the next three years [7][8] Group 5: Regulatory Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have announced that tobacco companies cannot deduct advertising expenses from taxable income [9] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has introduced new regulations to standardize food contract manufacturing practices, effective December 1, 2026 [10] Group 6: Product Development - Zhonghao Xinying's CEO announced that the second generation of TPU products is set to launch next year, following the successful rollout of the first generation in 2023 [11]