华西证券研报指出，携程《2026马年春节旅游市场预测》显示，在超长拼假、亲子游火热、外国游 客"反向春运"、反季节旅行升温等因素叠加下，今年春节旅游市场有望刷新"最热春节"纪录，多元需求 推动行业焕新升级，携程认为今年春节旅游市场将供需两旺、品质提升。 港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务 业龙头，更包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及运动服饰、白电等高股息标的。成分股近乎囊括港股消 费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、百胜中国、老铺黄金、安踏体育、农夫山泉、蜜雪冰城等消费龙头。 每日经济新闻 为抢抓春节消费旺季，从中央到地方，一系列"真金白银"的补贴、丰富多元的活动正密集落地。文 化和旅游部近日宣布启动2026年全国春节文化和旅游消费月系列活动，各地将围绕年俗、演出、展览、 冰雪游、避寒游、亲子游等热点，推出丰富多彩的应季文旅产品和活动，举办约3万场次文旅消费活 动，发放超3.6亿元消费券等补贴，推出门票减免、票根联动优惠、跨区域文旅优惠等举措，加大直达 游客的普惠政策力度。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 在地方，文旅促消费活动精彩纷呈。春节期间，北京市级财政通过"北 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest price data in January 2026 in China shows a mild recovery at a low level with structural differentiation, while the non - farm data in the US in January greatly exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Domestic price repair depends on the optimization of "new supply" and the unblocking of the transmission chain in the middle and lower reaches. The economic opportunities from the visit and domestic growth - stabilizing policies may lead to a valuation repair of pro - cyclical sectors [2]. - In the short term, for the RMB exchange rate, pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may increase [3]. - For the stock index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - For the bond market, it is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. - For new energy products, the spot market for lithium carbonate is trading lightly, and it is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [15][17]. - For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy may be in a shock adjustment. Copper may be weak in its rebound, zinc may be in a shock, nickel - stainless steel may be affected by quota disturbances, tin may be adjusted in a wide - range shock, and lead may fluctuate weakly [20][26][28]. - For oilseeds and fats, for oilseeds, there are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities. For fats, the domestic market has limited driving forces and is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [31][33]. - For energy and oil and gas, for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, due to geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday. For asphalt, its price may follow the cost - end crude oil, and there may be a decline after the holiday [35][37][39]. - For precious metals, for platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation still exists, and it is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. For gold and silver, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [43][45]. - For chemical products, for pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to conduct range trading. For pure benzene - styrene, pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. For LPG, pay attention to geopolitical uncertainties. For PTA - PX, it is advisable to buy at low prices. For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. For methanol, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For plastics and PP, the short - term driving force is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock before the holiday. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday, and it is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For urea, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For glass and soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For propylene, pay attention to cost and risk [51][54][57][62][65][67][69][80][82][83][86]. - For black products, for rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price may be in a weak shock. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are in a bottom - shock state [88][91][94][95]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for live pigs, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract. For cotton, it is expected to be in a shock in the short term. For sugar, the upward space is limited. For eggs, the main contract is expected to decline in a shock. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For apples, the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited. For red dates, the short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure. For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100][103][104][111][113][114][116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's CPI and PPI data in January 2026 showed a mild recovery at a low level. The US non - farm data in January was strong, affecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%, and the US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US non - farm report in January was strong, delaying the market's expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut. The RMB exchange rate was under the central bank's regulation and maintained a mild appreciation. Pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline [3]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is trading lightly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. It is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday [15]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The market is in a wide - range shock. Due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [16][17]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The non - farm data in the US was better than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts. The fundamentals of aluminum have not changed much, and it may be in a shock adjustment. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, and cast aluminum alloy may follow aluminum [20]. - **Copper**: The probability of a March interest rate cut has decreased, and the copper price's rebound is weak. It is recommended to hold a light position or wait and see before the holiday [20][23]. - **Zinc**: It follows the sector's adjustment, and the non - farm data suppresses the price. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is affected by quota disturbances. The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of capital withdrawal before the holiday [27][28]. - **Tin**: Its price is mainly driven by the macro situation and is expected to be in a wide - range shock adjustment [29][30]. - **Lead**: It follows the sector's fluctuation and is expected to be in a weak shock [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound in the short - term but may be restricted by new supplies in the long - term. There are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [31]. - **Fats**: The domestic market has limited driving forces. The palm oil market needs to observe the de - stocking process, the soybean oil has support from policies, and the rapeseed oil supply is loose. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [32][33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: It opened high and went high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is being repaired, and the demand is weak in some areas. The logic is mainly related to geopolitics, and it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [35]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cost has increased, and it opened high and went high. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [36][37]. - **Asphalt**: Its price increase is weak. The demand has reached the freezing point before the holiday, and it may follow the cost - end crude oil. There may be a decline after the holiday [38][39]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation still exists. It is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. Pay attention to the impact of Fed officials' speeches and relevant events [43]. - **Gold and Silver**: The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term operation is difficult. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [45]. Chemical Products - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is relatively neutral, and the offset paper futures may be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to conduct range trading [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decrease during the Spring Festival [54][55]. - **LPG**: There are still uncertainties in geopolitics. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to risk management before the holiday [56][57]. - **PTA - PX**: It benefits from the good supply - demand structure of PX. The first quarter may see inventory accumulation, and the second quarter may be in short supply. It is advisable to buy at low prices [59][62]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [63][65]. - **Methanol**: It follows geopolitics and non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to be empty before the holiday [66][67]. - **Plastics and PP**: The short - term driving force is limited. PE has a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and PP has limited supply pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [68][69]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [72][80]. - **Urea**: It is in a stage of over - supply due to new capacity release. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation, but it is recommended to exit long positions and be empty before the holiday [81][82]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the demand is expected to weaken, and it is in a weak shock. For glass, there may be concentrated cold repairs before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [83][84]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals still have support, but the cost has uncertainties. Pay attention to cost, supply - demand, and risk [85][86]. Black Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price may be in a weak shock. The supply is relatively strong compared to the demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range [88][89]. - **Iron Ore**: The overall supply - demand is weak, and the iron water is expected to rise. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday [90][91]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are many disturbances in the overseas market, and the domestic driving force is insufficient. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [92][94]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are in a bottom - shock state. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price [95]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The futures price has rebounded, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract [98][99]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the external - internal cotton price difference restricts the upward space [99][100]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar's upward space is limited [101][103]. - **Eggs**: The main contract is expected to decline in a shock. The pre - holiday demand has weakened, and the supply is sufficient [104]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [104][111]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited [112][113]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [114]. - **Logs**: The liquidity is insufficient, and the industry is optimistic about the post - holiday market. It is recommended to wait and see [115][116].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other organizations have launched the "2026 'Buy New Year' Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" to stimulate holiday consumption and enhance cultural life during the Spring Festival, with a focus on financial support and collaboration with key merchants [1] Group 1: Financial Support and Consumer Engagement - The plan emphasizes increasing financial support, encouraging financial institutions to collaborate with key merchants to offer exclusive discounts and enhance digital payment incentives [1] - China Bank has initiated the "2026 'Buy New Year'" campaign, focusing on six major consumption scenarios: food, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment [1] Group 2: Consumer Promotions and Discounts - The "Enjoy the Taste of the New Year" campaign has launched in 30 provinces and over 370 food streets, offering discounts for payments made with China Bank debit and credit cards [2] - Various promotions include discounts on hotel bookings through platforms like Fliggy, and special offers for travel and dining experiences [3][4] - The campaign also features discounts for online shopping on platforms like JD and Douyin, with incentives for first-time users of China Bank services [6][7] Group 3: Cross-Border Services and Benefits - China Bank provides extensive services for cross-border consumers, including currency exchange and tax refund services for international travelers [9] - The "Come to China" app offers a comprehensive service platform for foreign visitors, enhancing their shopping experience and convenience [9] - Special offers for outbound travelers include discounts on visa processing and various rewards for using China Bank credit cards abroad [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the dual boost in the consumption market driven by government policies and activities ahead of the Spring Festival, aiming to stimulate consumer enthusiasm through various subsidies and events [1][2]. Group 1: National Initiatives - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has launched a series of activities for the 2026 National Spring Festival Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month, featuring around 30,000 cultural and tourism events and distributing over 360 million yuan in consumption vouchers [1]. - Measures include ticket reductions, cross-regional tourism discounts, and enhanced policies to benefit direct visitors [1]. Group 2: Local Government Actions - Beijing's municipal government has invested 16.95 million yuan in the "Beijing Cultural Consumption Promotion Action," leveraging over 55 million yuan from platforms and related enterprises, with total subsidies expected to exceed 70 million yuan [1]. - Shanghai will offer discounts on tickets for 60 popular attractions, while Guangxi will host the "2026 Guangxi New Spring Consumption Season" with over 1,000 promotional activities [1]. Group 3: Consumer Goods Promotion - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have released the "2026 'Buy New Spring' Special Activity Plan," encouraging localities to increase subsidies for replacing old consumer goods during the Spring Festival [1]. - The plan aims to enhance support for offline retail and promote exhibitions for automobiles, home appliances, and digital products, fostering a vibrant atmosphere for consumer upgrades [1][2].

▶尾号限行 1和6 ▶生活提醒 南北方气温将创新高，京津冀冲到15℃左右？除夕前后警惕冷暖急转。 今天迎节前全国公路出行小高峰，交通部门提醒→ ▶今日天气 白天：晴间多云，北转南风二三级，最高气温12℃。 夜间：晴间多云，南转北风一二级，最低气温-2℃。 节前预订酒店怎样不"翻车"？听听法官怎么说—— 一大波夜间高铁已陆续上线，买到凌晨的车票，应该啥时候去候车？ ▶食品召回办法新修，时限全面收紧 市场监管总局修订《食品召回管理办法》，按危害与紧急程度划分，将食品召回启动时限由24、48、72 小时，调整为24、36、48小时，强化食品安全快速处置。 ▶医保药品目录优化，中成药清退从严 2026年国家医保药品目录持续优化，与基金及供应适配，明确将说明书中不良反应标注"尚不明确"的中 成药，列为重点调出对象，提升用药安全保障。 ▶乐购新春促消费，发票奖池超十亿 国新办发布2026"乐购新春"活动，9天长假来袭，多部门联合推出消费礼包，有奖发票奖金超10亿元， 覆盖多场景优惠，激活春节消费。 ▶百余家养老中心，春节值守不停 北京150余家区域养老服务中心春节不打烊，公示服务清单与价格，提供日常照料、生活帮扶、节日关 ...

Group 1 - Vipshop is conducting a Spring Festival goods promotion until February 15, featuring a final wave of limited-time discounts, including a 15% reduction on selected items [1] - The promotion includes categories such as snacks, beverages, and clothing, with a special focus on the limited purchase of 53° Feitian Moutai [1] - The campaign aims to stimulate consumer demand during the Spring Festival by utilizing search codes for red envelopes and combining government subsidy coupons [1] Group 2 - Vipshop's stock price has shown significant volatility over the past week, with a 3.28% increase on February 5 and a 3.76% increase on February 6, driven by the overall rise of Chinese concept stocks [2] - Following this, the stock experienced a decline, with a 0.17% drop on February 9 and a 2.12% drop on February 10, attributed to cautious market sentiment amid MSCI index adjustments [2] - The latest closing price on February 11 showed a slight decrease of 0.23%, with an overall increase of 4.47% over the observed period and a trading range fluctuation of 8.95% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing measures to ensure a stable supply of essential goods and promote consumer spending during the upcoming Spring Festival, with various initiatives aimed at enhancing market supply and consumer engagement [1][2][3]. Group 1: Consumer Initiatives - The "Happy New Year Shopping" campaign includes three major packages for consumers: a trade-in program with a budget of 62.5 billion yuan, a lottery for invoices with a prize pool of 10 billion yuan during the holiday, and financial support from banks and payment institutions for various consumer sectors [2]. - A total of 20.5 billion yuan has been allocated by local governments to provide direct benefits to consumers through vouchers, subsidies, and red envelopes during the nine-day holiday [2]. Group 2: Market Supply - The supply of essential goods is robust, with a 20% increase in inventory for grains, meats, and eggs in major chain supermarkets compared to the same period last year, and a 7.7% increase in vegetable stocks [3]. - Various regions are actively organizing supply chains, with some areas increasing inventory levels by 10%-20% and securing supply agreements with external sources to ensure adequate stock for the holiday [3]. - The government is also releasing 2,000 tons of central reserve frozen beef and lamb to boost meat supply during the festival [3]. Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Activities - Approximately 30,000 cultural and tourism events are planned to take place around the Spring Festival, promoting a festive atmosphere and enhancing cultural engagement [5][6]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has launched several themed activities to enrich cultural life, including exhibitions and performances that highlight traditional and modern elements [6]. - Various regions are organizing unique cultural tourism activities, such as Beijing's "Enjoy Beijing During the New Year" series and Shandong's "Winter Warmth in Qilu" celebration [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The "乐购新春" (Happy Shopping Spring Festival) initiative aims to stimulate consumer spending during the Spring Festival by organizing various festive activities and promotions across different regions in China, enhancing the overall shopping experience and boosting local economies [6][15]. Group 1: Event Organization and Activities - The "乐购新春" initiative includes a series of activities designed to create a festive atmosphere, such as themed markets, cultural performances, and interactive experiences [6][8][12]. - In Beijing, the "乐购新春" activities feature vibrant decorations and local food markets, attracting consumers to participate in various events [7]. - Guangzhou is introducing innovative experiences like robot calligraphy and themed flower markets to engage consumers in new ways [8]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement and Promotions - Various regions are offering substantial discounts and promotional activities, such as "满减" (discounts based on spending thresholds) and "满赠" (gifts with purchases), to attract shoppers [10][11]. - The Ningbo Second Department Store is implementing a range of promotional strategies, including electronic coupons and prize draws, to enhance consumer participation [10]. - In Fujian's Quanzhou, traditional dining experiences like "流水席" (flowing banquet) are being highlighted to attract both local and visiting consumers [9]. Group 3: Collaboration and Support - Local governments and businesses are collaborating to create a unified approach to promote the "乐购新春" activities, enhancing the overall consumer experience [12][14]. - The initiative includes online and offline integration, with platforms like Douyin (TikTok) facilitating live broadcasts and interactive events to drive foot traffic to physical stores [13]. - The "购在中国，乐在湖北" (Shop in China, Enjoy in Hubei) campaign showcases international products, enhancing the shopping experience for both local and international consumers [14]. Group 4: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The "乐购新春" initiative is expected to create a significant surge in consumer spending at the beginning of 2026, contributing to the overall growth of the retail market [15]. - Data indicates that the retail sales of consumer goods reached over 50 trillion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.7%, suggesting a positive trend in consumer spending [12].

春节临近，消费市场持续升温。国新办2月11日举行新闻发布会，商务部、文化和旅游部、金融监管总 局、广电总局、体育总局有关负责人围绕保障春节市场供应、满足群众消费需求等话题回应社会关切。 持续做好生活必需品市场供应工作 （来源：中华工商时报） 转自：中华工商时报 "据商务大数据监测，节前全国生活必需品市场供需两旺，价格总体平稳。"商务部市场运行和消费促进 司司长杨沐在发布会上介绍，2月9日全国重点连锁超市粮油、肉类、鸡蛋库存较上月同期均增加20%以 上，蔬菜库存增加7.7%。 "各地已经安排20.5亿元资金，在9天假期内，通过发放消费券、补贴、红包等形式，直接惠及广大消费 者。"盛秋平说。 杨沐表示，春节期间，各级商务部门将加强值班值守，密切关注市场运行情况，持续做好生活必需品市 场供应工作。 强化货源组织，积极组织重点保供企业与生产供应基地加强产销对接，拓宽货源渠道，加大备货数量和 品类，丰富节日市场供给。山西、广西、新疆等地大型批发市场、超市生活必需品库存量比平时增加 10%以上；河北组织420家商贸流通企业与外地的供应基地签订供货协议。 加强储备调节，指导各地结合实际，灵活安排地方储备肉菜投放。安徽、福建 ...

转自：成都日报锦观 20.5亿元"新春礼包"将在9天假期内发放 春节消费"三重礼包"请查收 20.5亿元"新春礼包" 各地已经安排20.5亿元资金，在9天假期内，通过发放消费券、补贴、红包等形式，直接惠及广大消费 者。 625亿元国补资金就位 "据商务大数据监测，节前全国生活必需品市场供需两旺，价格总体平稳。"商务部市场运行和消费促进 司司长杨沐在发布会上介绍，2月9日全国重点连锁超市粮油、肉类、鸡蛋库存较上月同期均增加20%以 上，蔬菜库存增加7.7%。 强化货源组织，积极组织重点保供企业与生产供应基地加强产销对接，拓宽货源渠道，加大备货数量和 品类，丰富节日市场供给。山西、广西、新疆等地大型批发市场、超市生活必需品库存量比平时增加 10%以上；河北组织420家商贸流通企业与外地的供应基地签订供货协议。 加强储备调节，指导各地结合实际，灵活安排地方储备肉菜投放。安徽、福建、山东等地落实猪肉、冬 春蔬菜储备10万吨以上；上海、湖北启动政府平价肉菜投放，平均价格优惠10%以上。 优化便民服务，引导重点商贸流通企业节日期间正常经营，加大补货上架频次。主要电商平台推出"春 节不打烊""春节也服务"等措施，保障节日期 ...