Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual volatility in the U.S. market over the past two months, highlighting the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates despite declining inflation indicators and increasing fiscal pressures [3][5][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve has maintained a steady interest rate policy despite a decrease in core PCE inflation to 2.6% in June, the lowest since 2021 [3]. - The Fed's strategy appears to be aimed at preventing capital from flowing to Eastern markets, with high interest rates intended to keep funds within U.S. Treasury bonds [5][12]. - Market speculation is growing regarding potential interest rate cuts, with a significant portion of traders betting on at least one rate cut by September [11][12]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market has shown signs of volatility, with the S&P 500 experiencing fluctuations and debates over interest rate direction intensifying [6][12]. - Former President Trump has publicly called for interest rate cuts, indicating a shift in sentiment as the market struggles with high debt interest payments [6][9]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict two rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points, reflecting a growing belief that the Fed may need to adjust its stance [12]. Group 3: Global Context - The article notes that Eastern markets, particularly China, are not following the Fed's lead, maintaining a stable exchange rate for the yuan against the dollar [6][15]. - China's export growth remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in June, indicating resilience despite global economic pressures [6]. - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is gaining attention, with reports highlighting the stability of China's bond market compared to U.S. Treasuries [15]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to lower rates to support the market or maintain its current stance, risking further fiscal strain and potential political fallout in an election year [9][17]. - The outcome of this situation may hinge on the Fed's ability to balance market confidence with economic realities, as global investors reassess where to allocate their capital [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Q2 GDP data may appear strong on the surface but is likely misleading, driven by a reduction in trade deficits while core areas like consumer spending and business investment show signs of weakness [1][2]. Economic Growth and GDP - UBS predicts a Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of 2.6%, a significant rebound from Q1's contraction of 0.5%, primarily driven by net exports contributing up to 4.1 percentage points to GDP growth [2][5]. - The sharp decline in imports, expected to drop over 25% annually, has reversed the negative impact of net exports from Q1, which had reduced GDP by 4.6 percentage points [2][5]. - Domestic demand and real personal consumption growth have slowed from 2.5%-3% over the past two years to approximately 1.1% in the first half of this year [2]. Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence remains fragile, with the World Federation of Large Enterprises' index rising only 2.0 points to 97.2 in July, still significantly below the 2024 average of 104.5 [7]. - The labor market's perception of job availability has declined, indicating potential challenges for consumer spending moving forward [7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job openings decreasing by 275,000 in June to 7.44 million, and the job vacancy rate falling to 4.4% [8]. - The hiring rate has dropped to 3.3%, nearing the low point of the current expansion cycle, suggesting a slowdown in labor market activity [8]. Long-term Economic Challenges - The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy faces structural challenges, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the "Big Beautiful" Act will increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with only a 0.5% average boost to inflation-adjusted GDP [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing its most significant internal division in 32 years, with two board members potentially opposing Chairman Powell's stance on interest rates during the upcoming meeting, marking a historic moment for the FOMC [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with a 97.4% probability of no rate cut in July [1][3]. - The FOMC is reportedly divided into three factions: one advocating for immediate rate cuts, a middle group seeking more data, and a cautious faction waiting for clear signs of economic weakness [4][6]. Group 2: Key Players and Their Positions - The aggressive faction, represented by Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, is pushing for an immediate rate cut, citing concerns over a weakening labor market [5][6]. - Waller has publicly stated that a 25 basis point cut is reasonable, emphasizing the urgency of addressing labor market issues before they worsen [5][11]. - The middle faction, led by Mary Daly, is inclined to wait for more data before making any decisions on rate cuts, while the cautious faction, represented by Raphael Bostic, is wary of inflation and prefers to see clear economic signs before acting [6][8]. Group 3: Political Influences and Implications - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under significant political pressure, particularly from former President Trump, who has been perceived as attempting to influence Fed policies [8][9]. - Market observers are closely watching the July meeting for indications of the Fed's stance on independence and potential political influences, with September being viewed as a critical juncture for the institution [8][10]. - Waller's actions may also be seen as positioning himself for a potential future leadership role within the Fed, further complicating the political landscape [11][12].

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a downturn, with Dogecoin (DOGE) dropping 2.08% in 24 hours and 15.4% over the past week, attracting market attention [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is a key variable affecting Dogecoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, with potential outcomes based on rate changes: a rate cut could stimulate retail participation, maintaining rates may lead to consolidation, and a rate hike could trigger further market declines [3][4][5] - Recent price movements of Dogecoin show significant volatility, with a trading volume of $918 million during a sell-off, indicating potential large investor activity and a possible foundation for a rebound if demand increases [6] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for Dogecoin appears cautiously optimistic, with critical price levels to watch: if it can hold above $0.223 and rise to $0.241, it may retest $0.260; however, a drop below support could see it fall to the $0.215-$0.218 range [7] - Investors should closely monitor U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve statements, as macroeconomic headwinds may exacerbate short-term volatility [8]

Market Overview - The US stock market closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreating from historical highs as investors remained cautious ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate policy statement [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204.57 points to 44,632.99, a decrease of 0.46%; the S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points to 6,370.86, down 0.30%; and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 80.29 points to 21,098.29, a drop of 0.38% [2] US-China Economic Talks - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held constructive discussions in Stockholm regarding US-China economic relations and macroeconomic policies [3] - Both sides agreed to extend the suspension of the US's 24% tariffs and China's countermeasures for an additional 90 days [2][3] Company Earnings Reports - UnitedHealth reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, below the expected $4.59, and lowered its full-year EPS guidance to at least $16, causing its stock to drop by 7.5% [2][4] - Boeing's Q2 revenue was $22.75 billion, exceeding expectations, but reported a core EPS loss of $1.24, leading to a 4.4% decline in its stock [4] - Merck's Q2 sales were $15.81 billion, slightly above expectations, but its adjusted EPS of $2.13 was down year-over-year, resulting in a 1.7% stock decline [4] - UPS's stock plummeted by 10.6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly below expectations, and failing to provide full-year revenue and profit margin guidance [5] - Procter & Gamble's Q4 sales were $20.89 billion, with core EPS of $1.48, both slightly above expectations, but its growth forecast for FY2026 was below market expectations [5] - Novo Nordisk's stock fell approximately 22% after it lowered its sales and profit forecasts for FY2025 due to poor sales performance of its weight-loss drug Wegovy [5] Market Sentiment and Economic Data - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Meta down 2.46%, Tesla down 1.35%, and Google A up 1.65% [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.35%, with several Chinese stocks experiencing significant declines [5] - Economic data indicated a narrowing of the US trade deficit to $86 billion in June, a decrease of 10.8%, and a drop in job vacancies to 7.44 million, below expectations [6] - Consumer confidence in July rose, with the index increasing to 97.2, slightly above expectations [6] Upcoming Events - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged [7] - Key earnings reports from major companies like Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are anticipated to significantly influence market trends [6]

Market Overview - The US stock market closed lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreating from historical highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy statement and reacted to disappointing corporate earnings [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204.57 points to 44,632.99, a decrease of 0.46%; the S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points to 6,370.86, down 0.30%; and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 80.29 points to 21,098.29, a drop of 0.38% [1] US-China Economic Relations - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held constructive talks in Stockholm, focusing on US-China economic relations and macroeconomic policies [2] - Both sides emphasized the importance of a stable and healthy economic relationship, which is beneficial for their development goals and global economic stability [2] Corporate Earnings Performance - UnitedHealth reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, below the expected $4.59, and lowered its full-year EPS forecast to at least $16, causing its stock to drop by 7.5% [2] - Boeing's Q2 revenue was $22.75 billion, exceeding expectations, but reported a core EPS loss of $1.24, leading to a 4.4% decline in its stock [3] - Merck's Q2 sales were $15.81 billion, slightly above expectations, but its adjusted EPS of $2.13 was down year-over-year, resulting in a 1.7% stock decline [3] - UPS's stock plummeted by 10.6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly below expectations, and failing to provide full-year guidance [3] - Procter & Gamble's Q4 sales were $20.89 billion, with core EPS of $1.48, both slightly above expectations, but its growth forecast for FY2026 was below market expectations [3] - Novo Nordisk's stock fell approximately 22% after lowering its sales and profit outlook for FY2025 due to poor performance of its weight-loss drug Wegovy [4] Economic Data - The US trade deficit narrowed to $86 billion in June, a decrease of 10.8%, with imports down by 4.2% [4] - Job openings in the US fell to 7.44 million, below the expected 7.5 million, indicating stable labor demand [5] - Consumer confidence in the US rose in July, with the index increasing to 97.2, slightly above expectations [6] Upcoming Events - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates [7] - Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, are set to release earnings this week, which are anticipated to significantly impact overall market trends [4]

【美联储理事库格勒因私缺席本周议息票委暂降至11人】智通财经7月30日电，美联储表示，美联储理 事库格勒因个人事务原因缺席本周举行的为期两天的7月政策会议。这可能意味着将只有11名FOMC成 员对本周的政策决定进行投票，而非常规的12人。尽管预计美联储理事沃勒和理事鲍曼可能会成为两位 异见人士，支持在本月降低利率，但委员会应该仍会以绝对多数的结果支持维持利率不变。根据美联储 的政策，如果有一位地方联储行长缺席投票，其他行长可以作为替代人选参与投票。然而，理事席位没 有替代人选。（第一财经） ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 美联储表示，美联储理事库格勒因个人事务原因缺席本周举行的为期两天的7月政策会议。这可能意味 着将只有11名FOMC成员对本周的政策决定进行投票，而非常规的12人。尽管预计美联储理事沃勒和理 事鲍曼可能会成为两位异见人士，支持在本月降低利率，但委员会应该仍会以绝对多数的结果支持维持 利率不变。根据美联储的政策，如果有一位地方联储行长缺席投票，其他行长可以作为替代人选参与投 票。然而，理事席位没有替代人选。 ...

美联储表示，美联储理事库格勒因个人事务原因缺席本周举行的为期两天的7月政策会议。这可能意味 着将只有11名FOMC成员对本周的政策决定进行投票，而非常规的12人。尽管预计美联储理事沃勒和理 事鲍曼可能会成为两位持异议的成员——支持在本月降低利率，但FOMC委员会应该仍会以绝对多数的 结果支持维持利率不变。 ...

协议降低了市场对全球经济衰退的担忧，推动风险资产吸引力上升，股市和美元受提振，标普500指数连续第六个交易日创收盘新高，纳斯达克指数也创历 史纪录。 欧盟承诺在特朗普任期内进行高达7500亿美元的战略采购，包括6000亿美元的美国军事装备，进一步刺激市场乐观情绪，降低对黄金的避险需求，使金价承 压。 黄金周一（7月28日）早盘低开上涨，到欧盘前最高上涨至3345附近，欧盘承压震荡，美盘开始加速下跌，最跌至3302/3301区域，尾盘震荡反弹3319附近， 日线收出一根上影线长于下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、美欧贸易协议的影响 7月27日，美国与欧盟达成框架贸易协议，将对欧盟商品征收的进口关税定为15%，远低于此前威胁的30%税率，避免了更大规模贸易战，为全球市场注入 确定性。 2、中美贸易谈判的不确定性 7月28日，中美高级经济官员在斯德哥尔摩重启关税会谈，旨在延长贸易休战期90天，但美国贸易代表称预计不会有重大突破，谈判重点在监督和履行现有 承诺。 中国面临8月12日与特朗普政府达成持久关税协议的最后期限，双方核心问题仍未解决，市场不确定性存在，一定程度支撑黄金。 3、市场对美联储利率政策的预期 美联储将 ...