美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔淡化了针对周三再度降息决定的反对投票，但会议披露的诸多细节，却暴露 了这一央行内部日益加剧的意见分歧。 此次鲍威尔推动的 25 个基点降息，不仅遭到数位有投票权委员的反对，一大批参与会议讨论但并非本 年度投票委员的地区联储行长，也都释放出了反对降息的信号。 这种内部分歧或为 2026 年的政策走向埋下伏笔 —— 届时，新任美联储主席或许会比鲍威尔更难在美联 储内部凝聚政策共识。 "这非常罕见。我参与美联储相关工作十多年来，从未见过这种局面。" 今年 6 月退休的费城联储前主 席帕特里克・哈克如此表示。 本次议息会议上，仅有两位政策制定者 —— 堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫・施密德和芝加哥联储主席奥斯 坦・古尔斯比 —— 正式投出反对票，主张维持利率不变；另一份反对票来自美联储理事斯蒂芬・米 兰，他则持续呼吁更大幅度的降息。其余的反对声音，则通过其他渠道传递出来。 美联储在公布降息决定的同时发布了季度利率预期，有六位政策制定者认为，2025 年底联邦基金基准 利率应维持在 3.75% 至 4% 区间（即周三降息前的利率水平），这一表态意味着他们反对本次降息。 鉴于这六位官员中至少有四人、甚至可能 ...

Three officials dissented in opposite directions. Stalled progress on inflation and a cooling job market made for one of the most divided meetings in years ...

亚洲各国央行持续增持黄金，为金价构建了坚实的中长期支撑： 市场目光正高度聚焦于美联储会议决议与全球央行储备调整，二者将共同主导黄金后续走势的核心方向。从日线级别走势观察，当前价格结构呈现"高位 震荡后重心缓慢下移"的特征，技术面已正式进入关键的方向选择期。金价触及阶段高点后，多次在上方压力带附近遇阻回落，K线连续留下长上影线形 态，清晰反映出多头动能正在逐步衰减，上攻力度明显不足。 四小时级别来看，MACD指标在零轴附近形成金叉后持续缩量震荡，灵动指标STO在超买区间附近徘徊不前，加之短期均线纷纷向中轨附近缠绕靠拢，多 重信号均指向当前价格处于震荡整理态势。 黄金下方支撑重点关注中轨与MA60均线交汇区域，即4200一线，这成为短期多空博弈的关键分水岭——早间金价若想延续冲高态势，必须坚守4206-4200 一线支撑不被跌破，否则白盘大概率维持震荡格局；进一步下方支撑则看向布林带下轨4179一线。 黄金小时线级别上，MACD金叉动能持续缩减并逐步粘合，灵动指标双线交织运行，同时布林带三轨呈现缩口形态，表明价格震荡区间正不断压缩，短期 波动幅度将有所收窄。 当前小时线布林带上下轨界定的震荡区间为4220-419 ...

格隆汇12月9日｜由于围绕美联储在12月之后的利率前景不确定性增加，黄金价格大致保持稳定。市场 坚定地预计本周将降息25个基点，因此投资者的注意力完全转向了主席鲍威尔的讲话以及后续任何进一 步宽松政策的速度。Peak Trading Research的分析师表示："市场预期将是'鹰派降息'，即在降息的同 时，美联储会发出指引，表明可能会暂停进一步宽松，以确保通胀不会再次升温。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 凯文·哈塞特在回答有关美联储应采取多大程度的限制性政策时表示："我认为美联储主席的职责是观察 数据。" "由于政府停摆，我们有很多数据缺失"。 他表示，做出六个月的利率承诺是不负责任的。 他表示，做出六个月的利率承诺是不负责任的。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：刘明亮 责任编辑：刘明亮 凯文·哈塞特在回答有关美联储应采取多大程度的限制性政策时表示："我认为美联储主席的职责是观察 数据。" "由于政府停摆，我们有很多数据缺失"。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is influenced by market pricing power and capital influx, with a focus on investment strategies for innovative drugs and related industry chains [1] - The innovative drug sector is experiencing increased liquidity and risk appetite, with a significant rise in attention towards biotech catalysts [1] - The raw material drug market is expected to see a substantial increase in demand due to patent expirations, with a projected sales impact of $390 billion from 2025 to 2030 [1] Summary by Category Innovative Drugs - The IPOs of innovative biotech companies peaked between 2019 and 2021, and the current period is critical for validating core pipelines and concept verification for second-tier pipelines [1] - The A + H share innovative drug index has seen an increase in market capitalization, which is likely to improve local financing conditions [2] Raw Material Drugs - From 2025 to 2030, the expiration of patents for over half of the top 15 small molecule drugs is expected to create a demand surge for raw materials [1] - In the first half of 2025, the production of raw materials by large-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.935 million tons, an 8.2% year-on-year increase [1] - India’s imports of raw materials and intermediates from China amounted to $1.652 billion, with a slight decrease in value but an 11.59% increase in volume, indicating a recovery in demand [1] CXO Sector - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September 2025, which may lead to improved market liquidity [2] - The recovery in overseas demand is anticipated to boost CXO demand and performance [2] Investment Strategies - Key factors to monitor include changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policies, marginal changes in financing, gradual recovery in overseas demand, geopolitical relations, and the introduction of supportive policies for innovative drugs [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices are weakening and are expected to record a weekly decline due to a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in December [1] - As of the report, spot gold has decreased by 0.3% to $4,059.86 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of approximately 1% for the week [1] - The mixed U.S. employment report has diminished hopes for a rate cut in December, leading gold to continue its downward trend [1] Group 2 - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is still a possibility of a rate cut "in the near term," which has significantly raised market expectations for a December rate cut [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released showed an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% to 4.4%, but remains within the Federal Reserve's expected range [3] Group 3 - The latest analysis suggests that gold prices are attempting to regain momentum, with traders needing to push prices above the $4,100 mark for a potential rally [4] - If gold surpasses $4,100, the next target will be $4,150, followed by testing the previous cycle high of $4,245 set on November 13 [4] - Should gold fail to hold above $4,100, it may decline to $4,050 and subsequently test the support level at the 50-day simple moving average of $3,981 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with some members signaling support for interest rate cuts while others advocate for maintaining current rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams has indicated support for a rate cut, which has increased market expectations for a December rate reduction, with futures showing a probability rise from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, leading to a near-even split among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with five members favoring no rate change [1][2]. - The current situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [1]. Group 2: Shift in Market Focus - Investors are shifting from a focus on the Fed's overall consensus to calculating individual policymakers' voting tendencies, reflecting a more fragmented decision-making environment [2]. - The recent volatility in rate cut probabilities has disrupted market assessments of future interest rate directions, challenging the Fed's historical emphasis on consensus decision-making [2]. Group 3: Increase in Dissenting Votes - Dissenting votes, previously rare during Powell's tenure, have notably increased this year, with no unanimous decisions since June [5]. - Research indicates that a low number of dissenting votes can convey decision-making confidence, while critics argue it may suppress important viewpoints due to "groupthink" [5]. - Notably, two Fed governors voted against maintaining rates in July, marking the first time in 32 years that two governors opposed the chair's decision [5]. Group 4: Cautious Stance Among Policymakers - An increasing number of policymakers are expressing concerns similar to those of Kansas City Fed President George, with five of the 12 voting officials indicating a preference to maintain rates in December [7]. - Formerly dovish officials are also hinting at a preference for keeping rates unchanged, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating he would dissent if he strongly disagreed with the majority [8]. Group 5: Uncertainty Surrounding December Decision - The upcoming December decision is shaping up to be one of the closest votes in years, with some economists believing Williams' recent comments have solidified the case for a rate cut, while others remain uncertain [9]. - Dallas Fed President Logan noted the inherent uncertainty in macroeconomic and monetary policy decisions, emphasizing the challenge policymakers face in understanding the current economic landscape [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces significant internal divisions regarding interest rate policy amid conflicting economic signals, balancing a weak but stable labor market against persistent inflation and potential financial risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, warns that further rate cuts could exacerbate high inflation and encourage risk-taking in financial markets, emphasizing that current financial conditions are "quite loose" [1][2] - Mester opposes the recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, arguing that monetary policy's effectiveness in controlling price pressures is limited [2] - Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, expresses caution regarding inflation data, noting that recent employment figures show stability but warns against premature rate cuts until inflation trends are confirmed [2][3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The delayed September non-farm payroll report shows an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating underlying weaknesses [3] - The market's focus has shifted from inflation narratives to growth and employment narratives following the employment report, reflecting the complexity of the current economic landscape [3] - The Federal Reserve's future decisions will remain highly data-dependent, navigating the delicate balance between preventing market panic and avoiding economic slowdown [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be in short - term weak oscillation, mid - term high - level oscillation, and long - term step - up trend. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1][6] - For both gold and silver, it is recommended that conservative investors wait and watch, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high, and should manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals faced resistance and pressure. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.75%. [1] - **Core Logic** - **Short - term Hedging**: The results of the China - US talks have been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment situation is weakening, inflation is moderate, Fed officials are hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been adjusted. [1] - **Hedging Attribute**: The results and consensus of China - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting showed that there were serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials believed it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025. The number of continuing jobless claims in the US has soared, and builder confidence has been low for 19 consecutive months. More Fed policymakers are cautious about a December interest rate cut. The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has dropped to around 30%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strong. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. [1] - **Data** - **Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4078.30 per ounce, up 0.27% from the previous day and down 2.93% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4126.95 per ounce, up 1.63% from the previous day and down 0.24% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 935.46 yuan per gram, down 0.16% from the previous day and down 2.68% from the previous week; Gold T + D closed at 930.00 yuan per gram, down 0.46% from the previous day and down 2.99% from the previous week. [2] - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 493,748 lots; Shanghai Gold's main contract positions increased by 85.01% from the previous day and 23.36% from the previous week; Gold TD positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day and 3.07% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week. [2] - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Gold totaled 89,446 lots, a decrease of 1,166 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 17,856 lots, a decrease of 568 lots. [4] 3.2 Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased. [6] - **Data** - **Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $51.07 per ounce, up 1.04% from the previous day and down 4.07% from the previous week; London silver closed at $52.20 per ounce, up 3.78% from the previous day and up 1.29% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 12,050.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.81% from the previous day and down 4.27% from the previous week; Silver T + D closed at 12,030.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.99% from the previous day and down 4.24% from the previous week. [7] - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 163,837 lots; Shanghai Silver's main contract positions increased by 2.76% from the previous day and 9.24% from the previous week; Silver TD positions increased by 0.28% from the previous day and 1.04% from the previous week. LBMA silver inventory was 26,255 tons, up 6.81% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory was 14,385 tons, down 3.28% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver inventory was 535 tons, down 8.38% from the previous week; Silver inventory in the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 775 tons, down 5.80% from the previous week; the total visible inventory was 41,991 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. [7] - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Silver totaled 127,521 lots, a decrease of 1,753 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 43,645 lots, an increase of 333 lots. [8] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute** - **Interest Rates**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, all down 0.25% from the previous value. [9] - **Other Indicators**: The Fed's total assets are $6631.098 billion, up $74.55 billion from the previous value; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.07% from the previous value; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.44%, up 0.41% from the previous day and 1.67% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 99.60, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and down 5.41% from the previous week. [9] - **Geopolitical and Market Indicators** - **Hedging Attribute**: The geopolitical risk index is 90.76, down 1.74% from the previous week; the VIX index is 23.66, down 4.17% from the previous day and up 35.12% from the previous week. [12] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is 299.24, down 1.36% from the previous day and 1.03% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1109, up 0.01% from the previous week. [12] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2304.46 tons, up 0.09% from the previous value; the US's are 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36362.76 tons, unchanged. [11][12] - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves and Gold - to - Reserves Ratio**: The US dollar accounts for 57.80% of IMF foreign exchange reserves, up 0.88% from the previous value; the euro accounts for 19.83%, down 0.99%; the RMB accounts for 2.18%, down 0.04%. The global gold - to - foreign - exchange - reserves ratio is 22.18%, up 4.11% from the previous value; China's is 6.78%, up 4.40%; the US's is 78.64%, up 0.86%. [12]