Core Viewpoint - The Republican-led Senate is likely to confirm Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve before the September FOMC meeting, barring procedural issues or unexpected opposition [1][2] Group 1: Nomination Process - The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a hearing for Miran's nomination on September 4 at 10 AM ET [1] - Democrats privately acknowledge their inability to block Miran's nomination, as they can only delay the process briefly in committee and for a few days during the full Senate vote [1] - Miran was previously confirmed as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers with a vote of 53 to 46, facing no opposition from Republicans [1] Group 2: Political Context - Miran is expected to face tough questioning regarding Trump's actions to dismiss Fed officials and pressure the Fed to lower interest rates [1][2] - The nomination highlights the ongoing impact of the Trump administration on the independence of the Federal Reserve, with attempts to install aligned officials [2] - The market reaction to Miran's nomination has been relatively calm, but economists warn that perceived political pressure on the Fed could harm its global credibility [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - If confirmed, Miran may support a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with the market currently pricing in an 87% probability of this outcome [2] - The potential for increased political intervention in the Fed's operations could lead to higher long-term Treasury yields, as investors may demand a "political risk premium" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]

Group 1 - The US dollar is expected to decline by approximately 2% against major currencies in August due to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with the dollar index currently at 97.917 and a year-to-date decline of nearly 10% [1] - President Trump has increased his influence over the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has filed a lawsuit claiming the president lacks the authority to dismiss her, raising concerns about the Fed's policy independence [1][3] - The yield on short-term US Treasury bonds is being suppressed by rate cut expectations, while long-term yields are rising due to inflation concerns and policy risks, resulting in a steepening of the yield curve with a 57 basis point spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds, the steepest since April [3] Group 2 - Market participants are adopting a pragmatic approach regarding the risks to the Fed's independence, choosing to remain cautious in the short term [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 86%, up from 63% a month ago, with investors betting on cumulative cuts exceeding 100 basis points by mid-2025 [3] - The upcoming PCE price index is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with a reading above 3% potentially intensifying doubts about a shift in Fed policy [4]

周四(8月28日)亚洲时段，白银价格从38.08美元的低点反弹后回升，银价震荡上涨，欧市盘中，现货白 银行情延续上行，现报38.86美元/盎司，最高触及38.93美元/盎司，最低下探38.52美元/盎司。银价正逼 近38.90美元/盎司水平。今晚关注即将发布的美国至8月23日当周初请失业金人数。 【要闻聚焦】 纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰 威廉姆斯于周三强调了央行独立性的重要性。此前，美国总统特朗普正试 图对货币政策施加管控。 在接受采访时，这位颇具影响力的政策制定者未直接评论特朗普拟解雇美联储理事莉萨 库克的相关举 措，但明确指出了美联储在维护经济稳定方面所发挥的重要经济作用。 "就我个人而言，我曾与莉萨 库克共事——她目前是美联储理事会成员，在工作中始终秉持诚信，致力 于实现美联储的使命，"威廉姆斯表示，"我认为美联储作为央行，其独立性至关重要……历史经验表 明，具备独立性的央行能够实现低通胀，维护经济与金融稳定。" 在特朗普第二任期的第一年，他多次打破传统界限——长期以来，这一界限一直存在于准政府机构属性 的美联储与白宫、国会山的影响力之间。 特朗普曾指责美联储主席鲍威尔及其同僚未采取降息措施。此前，他还曾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, and the worsening U.S. budget deficit is creating structural pressures on the dollar [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining the value of the currency [1] - Concerns have arisen in the market due to President Trump's intention to dismiss Fed Governor Cook [1] Group 2: U.S. Budget Deficit - The U.S. faces challenges regarding the sustainability of its debt [1] - Trump's tax and spending proposals may ultimately be more expensive than currently planned, as historical trends show that tax incentives are difficult to revoke [1] Group 3: Dollar Value and Market Resistance - Structural issues may weaken the long-term value of the dollar and increase structural resistance [1] - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is noted at 98.10-98.15, with significant resistance at 98.40-98.45 [1] - Short-term support for the dollar index is identified at 97.60-97.65, with significant support at 97.45-97.50 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets, driven by investor concerns over President Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On August 28, gold prices reached a five-week high, closing at $3417.07 per ounce, marking a 0.60% increase [2]. - Gold prices have been on an upward trend for three consecutive trading days, with a peak at $3420 [2]. - The gold price has broken through the significant resistance level of $3400, indicating potential for further upward movement [1][2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The dollar index fell by 0.3%, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers [2]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly due to pressure from President Trump, which may lead to expectations of quicker interest rate cuts [2][3]. - The market anticipates over an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming September meeting [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current support levels for gold are identified at $3399 and $3408, with resistance at $3423 [3]. - Analysts suggest that if gold effectively breaks above the trend line, it could target levels around $3430-50 [3]. - The market is advised to be cautious due to the potential for significant price movements coinciding with the end of the month and week [3].

Group 1 - Gold prices retreated from a five-week high, hovering around $3410, influenced by a weaker dollar and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased safe-haven inflows [1] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 229,000, but weak employment growth may push the August unemployment rate up to 4.3% [3] Group 2 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 5.44 tons, bringing the total to 967.94 tons [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have shown a clear upward trend since stabilizing around $3320 in mid-August, with the K-line above the 20-day moving average [6] - The MACD indicator shows expanding bullish momentum, while the RSI is around 65, suggesting that gold still has upward potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to a rise in gold prices, which reached a five-week high [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 29, gold prices fluctuated and were trading around $3,410, following a three-day increase, with a closing price of $3,417.07 per ounce, marking a 0.60% rise [1]. - Gold prices surpassed $3,400 per ounce on August 28, driven by declining U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, and reached a five-week high [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - President Trump's actions to influence monetary policy, including attempts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook, have raised concerns about the Fed's independence, contributing to the rise in gold prices [3]. - Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump, claiming he lacks the authority to dismiss her, which has sparked a significant debate about the independence of the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Market strategist Daniel Pavilonis predicts that gold could rise to approximately $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year due to the current pressures on the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold is maintaining a wide range of fluctuations, with K-line patterns showing a stable upward trend along short-term moving averages [3]. - On the hourly chart, there is a slight downward pressure on gold prices, suggesting potential adjustments in the short term [4]. - The four-hour chart shows that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with short-term moving averages indicating a slightly strong upward trend [5].

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices is bullish, supported by fundamental factors and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On August 28, international gold prices rebounded after reaching key support levels, with a closing price of $3,416.65 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of $18.48, or 0.54% [4]. - The gold price is expected to test resistance around $3,348 in the short term, with strong support from various moving averages [2]. - Despite some weakening in bullish momentum, the overall trend remains upward, with potential for new highs [4][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The dollar index has declined, which typically supports gold prices, as the market anticipates further weakness in the dollar [6]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. core PCE price index and consumer confidence index, are expected to influence market sentiment, although the overall expectation leans towards a bearish impact on gold [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price has maintained stability above the 60-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating a strong bullish trend [11]. - Key support levels to watch include $3,397 and $3,380, while resistance is noted at $3,431 and $3,449 [12]. - Historical patterns suggest that after a period of adjustment, gold prices are likely to rise again, with significant support at $3,270 and $3,220 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil may shift to a volatile trend before geopolitical risks further intensify, and short - selling opportunities after the peak season should be watched [2]. - Precious metals are in a volatile trend, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. - For various metals and industrial products, their prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and seasonal factors, and different trading strategies are suggested accordingly [4][5][6]. - For agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors like weather, trade policies, and supply - demand expectations, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided [34][35][36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks, and a style of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained; the yield curve of treasury bonds is expected to steepen [46][47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 0.82%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Before geopolitical risks further intensify, crude oil may turn to a volatile trend [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp decline in oil prices, fuel - related futures also fell. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales and China's bonded marine fuel filling demand decreased year - on - year, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm was also low. The overall fundamentals are relatively more positive [21]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content. Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices declined. The market is still cautious about the economic performance. High - level short positions should be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the overall decline of non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [5]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, supply increases while demand is weak. Although the short - term downside space is limited, one should wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel's rebound was blocked and it fell back. The overall inventory is still high, and one should look for short - selling positions [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and international tin prices broke through the integer - level resistance and expanded their gains. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and the market trading volume shrank. It is expected to be strongly volatile in general [11]. Industrial Products - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The short - term market sentiment led to the weakening of the futures price. One should pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are approaching the lower limit of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices were weakly volatile. The market is under negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is relatively low. The short - term price is still under pressure [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures were volatile overnight. The overall supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Their prices decreased during the day. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and short - term volatility is high [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the auction of imported soybeans, the price of Dalian soybean meal continued to fall. The market is cautiously bullish on Dalian soybean meal in the medium - to - long - term [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: They showed a volatile adjustment. One can consider buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term attention should be paid to soybean policy guidance [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term volatile consolidation pattern [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures rebounded last night. Given the good growth of US corn and the expected domestic harvest, the futures may continue to be weakly traded at the bottom [38]. - **Hogs**: The spot and futures prices of hogs are both weak. It is expected that the hog price will remain weak in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures continued to set new lows with increased positions. One can consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market lacks strong positive factors and is expected to be volatile in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton should be bought on dips [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar has insufficient positive factors. Sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price increased with increased positions. The short - term price may continue to rise, but there is a lack of positive factors on the supply side in the medium - to - long - term [43]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks. The strategy of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].