波兰央行：第一季度的经济增长可能低于2024年第四季度。 ...

摩根大通首席经济学家Michael Feroli表示："我们预计鲍威尔新闻发布会的主要信息是，联邦公开市场 委员会（FOMC）处于有利位置，可以在政策做出任何改变之前等待更明朗的情况。" 市场普遍预计美联储在周四政策会议结束时将维持利率不变，但对鲍威尔来说，未来的道路并不确定。 在美国总统特朗普过去几周反复呼吁美联储降息，同时还对鲍威尔进行"人身攻击"后，投资者将密切关 注这位美联储主席的讲话，以获取关于未来货币政策行动的任何暗示。 特朗普近几周在一系列社交媒体帖子中将鲍威尔称为"一个大输家"、"太迟先生"和"一个彻头彻尾的顽 固派"。他还表示"对鲍威尔的解雇来得越快越好"，随后澄清他无意在鲍威尔任期于2026年5月结束前将 其撤职。 在特朗普关税可能推高通胀，并可能拖累经济增长的情况下，鲍威尔和他的同事们预计未来几个月将努 力应对一个令人烦恼的两难困境。他们可能需要决定侧重于其双重使命的哪一侧——物价稳定还是最大 就业。 鲍威尔上月明确表示，在做出决定前他会等待更明朗的情况。一些美联储观察人士预计他今天也将如 此。 然而，上周公布的经济、就业和通胀数据加剧了美联储面临的困境。 GDP报告显示，美国经济在20 ...

一、行情回顾 市场全天高开回落，深成指、创业板指午后一度翻绿。军工板块集体爆发，晨曦航空、航天长峰、成飞集成、利君股份等近20股涨停。化工股再度走强，阳 煤化工、湖北宜化、中毅达、丹化科技等涨停。地产股盘中拉升，天保基建、三湘印象涨停。下跌方面，创新药概念走低，百济神州跌近8%。个股涨多跌 少，沪深京三市超3200股飘红，今日成交1.51万亿。 二、当日热点 1.军工 军工板块今日大涨，润贝航科、航天长峰、华伍股份等多股涨停。 据央视新闻7日报道，巴基斯坦与印度在巴控克什米尔发生交火。 | 股票名称 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = | 涨停时间 = | 换手率 = | 流通市值 = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 润贝航科 | 12天7板 | 47.26 | +10.01% | 09:35:33 | 13.65% | 12.86亿 | 公司为主要航空公 | | 001316.SZ | | | | | | | 重要航材分销商， | | 航天长峰 | | | | | | | 公司的研究项目中 现、识别异常目标 | | 600855 ...

特区政府发言人表示，内地经济持续稳步增长、特区政府积极通过推动旅游业及盛事项目以刺激消费市 道，就业收入上升会继续支持零售业。 特区政府发言人说，随着4月初全球贸易摩擦因美国大幅增加进口关税而急剧升温，全球经济下行风险 显著上升。贸易政策极大不确定性将抑制国际贸易往来和投资气氛，从而困扰香港经济的短期前景。尽 管如此，内地经济持续稳步增长，加上特区政府各项推动经济增长和开拓更多元化市场的措施，将会为 本港不同经济活动带来支持。 统计处当天还发布最新零售业销货额数字。数据显示，与2024年同期相比，2025年首季度零售业总销货 价值的临时估计下跌6.5%。与2024年第四季度比较，经季节性调整的零售业总销货价值的临时估计上 升3.8%，经季节性调整的零售业总销货数量的临时估计则上升2.2%。 据新华社香港电(谢妞)香港特区政府统计处近日发布经济数据，2025年第一季度本地生产总值预先估计 数字同比上升3.1%，比去年第四季度上升0.6个百分点，创5个季度新高。经济按季增长2%，是两年来 最大增速。 今年第一季度，香港货品出口总额同比上升8.7%，与2024年第四季度的1.3%相比升幅明显；货品进口 在2025年 ...

Economic Data Overview - The U.S. economic data released during the holiday period showed mixed results, with weak GDP and manufacturing data initially clouding growth prospects [2] - The U.S. Q1 GDP preliminary value declined by 0.3%, contrary to the expected growth of 0.3% [2] - The U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, the lowest since November 2024, but was above the market expectation of 48 [2] - U.S. non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] Copper Market Dynamics - Chile's copper production in March increased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a significant month-on-month rise of 20%, reaching 477,049 tons [3] - Domestic demand for refined copper remains strong, leading to a decrease in domestic refined copper social inventory compared to the previous year [3] - LME copper inventory has been declining, currently around 197,300 tons, while COMEX copper inventory has been accumulating, reaching 152,616 tons as of May 5 [4] Trade and Market Sentiment - Global trade tensions show signs of easing, although uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies persist [2] - The market sentiment improved slightly due to better-than-expected employment and inflation data, alleviating some recession fears [2] - LME copper prices experienced fluctuations, with a notable drop of over 3% on April 30, marking the largest monthly decline since June 2022 [5]

穆迪：不断升级的巴印紧张局势将拖累巴基斯坦的经济增长。 ...

Global Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is characterized by divergence, with the US showing moderate growth supported by consumer spending, while investment lags behind [1] - Japan's economy is experiencing mild growth with balanced contributions across sectors [1] - Emerging markets like China are growing at their own pace, with consumption, investment, and net exports contributing positively, although the real estate sector is facing adjustments [1] - India is showing strong economic growth momentum [1] - Global inflation levels vary, with some countries facing significant inflationary pressures, while China is experiencing deflationary signs [1] - Supply chain pressures have eased globally, leading to a decrease in freight costs [1] Stock Market Performance - Global stock market returns vary significantly by region, with some Asian markets like Taiwan and China performing exceptionally well over the past decade [2] - Different markets exhibit unique characteristics in terms of earnings expectations, valuations, and dividend performance [2] - The technology sector is gaining attention, particularly with high earnings growth expectations for Chinese tech companies and significant growth in India's telecommunications services sector [2] - The US stock market is noted for its high concentration, with the top ten companies having a substantial impact on the index [2] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The global fixed income market shows complex dynamics, with varying returns across different bond categories [3] - Emerging market local currency bonds and Asian high-yield bonds have performed well during certain periods [3] - The yield, duration, and interest rate sensitivity of bonds differ, affecting market returns [3] - The spread changes between investment-grade and high-yield bonds influence market performance [3] - Emerging market bonds exhibit volatility in spreads and returns compared to US Treasuries, while the Asian fixed income market has its own trends [3] Other Asset Classes - The US dollar's exchange rate is related to interest rate differentials, and commodity prices are subject to fluctuations [4] - Gold prices are influenced by real interest rates, while oil prices are affected by supply and demand dynamics [4] - Alternative asset classes show varying returns and volatility, with different correlations to traditional assets, which can help in risk diversification within investment portfolios [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the seventh rate cut since June 2024, indicating a shift in focus from controlling inflation to supporting growth amid persistent inflation and external risks [1][2]. Interest Rate Changes - As of April 23, the ECB's three key interest rates are now set at 2.25% for the deposit facility rate, 2.40% for the main refinancing rate, and 2.65% for the marginal lending rate [1]. - This decision reflects a consensus among market participants and policymakers regarding the complex economic situation [1]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - Recent data shows a decline in both overall and core inflation rates in the Eurozone, with service sector price increases easing significantly [2]. - Potential inflation indicators suggest that price trends are gradually aligning with the ECB's medium-term target of 2% [2]. - However, the overall growth outlook for the Eurozone remains challenging, with geopolitical conflicts and rising trade barriers suppressing business investment and consumer spending [2]. Economic Indicators - The S&P Global's April Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Eurozone fell to 50.1, indicating a stagnation in economic activity, primarily due to unexpected contractions in the service sector, particularly in Germany and France [3]. - The ECB's rate cut is viewed as a preemptive defensive measure aimed at stabilizing market expectations and mitigating economic downturn risks [3]. Policy Coordination and Structural Challenges - Despite the rate cut signaling a shift towards monetary easing, the ECB acknowledges existing structural constraints and calls for enhanced fiscal coordination among member states [4]. - The ECB emphasizes the need for governments to prioritize green transitions, technological innovation, and digital infrastructure development [4]. - The ECB's policy documents highlight the importance of a robust fiscal framework to bolster market confidence and complement monetary policy efforts [4].

金十数据5月3日讯，欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，欧洲央行有信心将通胀率恢复到2%的目标水平。虽 然最新的预测已预见到今年年底（通胀）的降幅将接近这一水平，但欧元走强、大宗商品价格下跌和经 济不确定性将进一步抑制物价。他表示，这将是决定是否继续降息的 "决定性因素"。金多斯说："我们 乐观地认为，我们将持续实现通胀目标。"金多斯还表示："不确定性对经济总是不利的。我们在3月份 的预测中已经指出了这些下行风险。这些风险现在正在成为现实。我们的基准情景继续假设经济增长非 常低，但是为正——明显低于潜在增长。但我不认为欧元区会陷入衰退。我们正密切关注受工资影响很 大的服务业通胀。这里的工资增长也在放缓。此外，我们不追求汇率目标，但我们正在密切关注汇率。 这是评估物价稳定风险的重要经济指标。关键是保持低汇率波动。"金多斯认为，央行的独立性至关重 要。这是信誉的关键，因此也是对抗通胀的关键。 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行可以对通胀持乐观态度 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is expected to record a second consecutive week of gains, benefiting from eased concerns over the global trade war, recovering above the 100 mark for the first time since April 16 [1] - Spot gold has recorded a second consecutive week of declines, trading at $3344 per ounce due to reduced safe-haven demand and profit-taking ahead of the Labor Day holiday [1] Currency Performance - Non-USD currencies such as the euro and Australian dollar have seen gains against the US dollar for the fourth consecutive month due to the dollar's decline [3] Oil Market - International oil prices have dropped significantly, with Brent crude oil down approximately 18% for April, influenced by the US-led trade war impacting economic growth and energy demand [6] - Saudi Arabia has expressed reluctance to further cut supply to support oil prices, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices, although a subsequent threat from Trump regarding sanctions on Iranian oil buyers caused a rebound [6] Stock Market - The S&P 500 index has achieved its best eight-day performance in over three years, driven by strong earnings from tech companies like Microsoft and Meta, alleviating fears over tariff impacts [10] - Overall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 3.17% in April, marking its third consecutive monthly decline, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.85% [10] Investment Bank Insights - Deutsche Bank noted that despite market recovery, US assets still face resistance from foreign buyers [13] - Morgan Stanley highlighted uncertainty in tariff policies and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which may lead to reduced foreign investment in the US [13] - Barclays recommended investors to re-establish long positions in five-year US Treasuries [13] Economic Data - The US economy showed signs of fatigue, with consumer spending growth at a two-year low and a surprising contraction in GDP for Q1 2025 [16][17] - Non-farm payroll data for April showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [17][18] Trade Developments - Trump signed an executive order exempting imported cars and parts from steel and aluminum tariffs, aiming to alleviate pressure on the US auto industry [19] - Ongoing trade negotiations with Japan have yet to reach consensus, with Japan opposing US proposals on tariffs [19][20] Ukraine and Mineral Agreement - The US and Ukraine have signed a mineral agreement to establish a reconstruction investment fund, emphasizing joint energy development without addressing Ukraine's debt issues [21][22] Oil Sanctions on Iran - The US has intensified sanctions on Iranian oil, warning countries and individuals to cease purchases or face secondary sanctions [23] Saudi Oil Supply Strategy - Saudi Arabia has indicated a shift in strategy, no longer willing to cut oil supply to support prices, potentially increasing production to gain market share [24] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk is gradually stepping back from his role in the White House, while Tesla's board remains confident in his leadership despite stock price declines [25] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate but lowered GDP growth forecasts due to global trade uncertainties [26][27] Gold Demand - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand in Q1 2025 reached its highest level since 2016, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs [28]