1） 前一天总结 – 2025 年 9 月 16 日星期二 美国主要指数 所有主要指数均收平或略微下跌。 市场等待今天的美联储会议，降息 25 个基点已被定价。 尽管 8 月份零售销售报告强劲（增长 ~0.6%）出人意料地上涨，但投资者仍然保持谨慎。 美国政府阻止特朗普总统罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，斯蒂芬·米兰被确认为美联储董事会成员。这些都增加了围绕美联储独立性的审查背景。 波动性和收益率 标准普尔 500 指数：▼ -0.13% 至 6,606 点 道琼斯指数：▼ -0.27% 至 45,757 点 纳斯达克 100 指数：▼ -0.08% 至 24,274 点 罗素 2000 指数：▼ -0.09% 至 2,403 点 VIX： ▲ +4.3% 16.36 美元。 美国10年期国债收益率 ▼ -0.20% 美国国债收益率小幅下降;10年期国债收益率为 4.026% 商品（结算/纽约晚些时候） 欧洲 欧洲当天总共下跌 ~1.14%，金融/房地产/工业占干。 奢侈品是一个加权损失的行业，法拉利 +2.6%。 顶级股票推动者 2. 今天的动向 – 2025 年 9 月 17 日星期三 市场亮点 因此，重大市场 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut in response to the recent slowdown in the job market [2][3] - The meeting occurs at a politically sensitive time, with the Trump administration exerting pressure on the Fed to lower rates and attempting to influence its board composition [2][3] - There is internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the focus on employment weakness over persistent inflation, with some officials questioning the justification for a rate cut given the current unemployment rate of 4.3% and inflation above the 2% target [3] Group 2 - Recent employment data shows a significant decline in non-farm payroll growth, averaging only 29,000 over the past three months, indicating a clear slowdown in the labor market [3] - The Fed faces challenges in determining the neutral interest rate, currently at 4.3%, with estimates for the neutral rate being adjusted upwards, suggesting the need for several more rate cuts to reach a neutral stance [3] - The quarterly economic projections and dot plot regarding the number of expected rate cuts for the year will be closely monitored by the market, with potential adjustments from two to three cuts [3][4] Group 3 - The upcoming meeting represents a critical decision point for the Fed regarding its independence, political pressures, and economic judgments, with implications for both the U.S. and global economies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve is increasing, particularly with the appointment of his ally, Stephen Milan, which raises expectations for interest rate cuts [1][3] - There is a strong speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with Trump advocating for multiple cuts in the next couple of years [3] - The ongoing power struggle around the Federal Reserve highlights Trump's attempts to intervene in monetary policy, raising questions about the independence of the institution [7] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts, it could lead to increased global capital liquidity, potentially benefiting the Chinese market and A-shares [5] - A weaker dollar may result from the rate cuts, leading to a slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, which could enhance China's international purchasing power [5] - However, the appreciation of the yuan could also diminish the price competitiveness of Chinese exports, potentially impacting trade orders from American consumers [5]

对于北京时间周四凌晨美联储的利率决议，投资者的核心关注点将是"是否有政治压力影响美联储决策 过程"的迹象。 帕夫利克认为，当前美国经济并不需要降息，但他希望美联储本周启动降息——因为利率下调通常需要 时间才能传导至经济，这或有助于美国在明年避免经济放缓。 "现在就该着手应对，以免日后演变成更大问题，"帕夫利克说。但对于鲍威尔的新闻发布会，美联储的 独立性"将是核心焦点"。 市场对美联储政策前景的反应 据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，周二市场预期美联储今年将累计降息75个 基点，且其短期政策利率明年年底将降至2.75%-3%区间，较当前水平低150个基点。 会议前夕市场情绪紧张，尽管投资者对美联储在暂停近9个月后重启降息持欢迎态度，但标普500指数 （SPX）、道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）和纳斯达克综合指数（COMP）仍在历史高位附近震荡，难以 明确方向。 股市看涨逻辑包括：关税引发的通胀终将是一次性冲击、人工智能（AI）领域的巨额支出将支撑股市 持续走高，以及美联储将实现经济"软着陆"。 "通常情况下，当前局面下不该考虑降息，"法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）首席美 ...

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 所谓美联储的独立性指的是，其货币政策决策如利率调整、公开市场操作等无需获得总统或国会的批准。此外，美联储 有自筹收入的权力，其资金主要来自在公开市场操作中持有的政府证券利息，国会不掌握美联储的"财权"，这样的制度 设计避免了美联储决策受到政府的影响。 1913年《联邦储备法案》确立了美联储的架构，但其职能定位更侧重于货币发行与流通管理，而非现代意义上的独立货 币政策制定权。早期美联储仍需执行财政部指令，利率政策与国债利率挂钩。1951年《财政部—美联储协议》的签署标 志着美联储开始摆脱财政部直接控制，利率政策逐步转向以通胀控制为目标。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员王衍行对智通财经表示，美联储的独立性是一个非常核心但又颇具争议的问 题。虽然不是绝对独立，但是从制度设计上看，美联储确实拥有相当高的"操作独立性"。 "'形式上独立，实质上有限'是比较准确的描述。这种独立性是历史妥协、制度设计、市场信任三者交织的结果。"王衍 行说，这种设计架构久经检验，可以说，还没有其它任何一家央行能够超越美联储。 回顾历史，在制度设计和大多数情况下，美联储确实较好地保持了其操作性独立。不过，近二十年 ...

该法案由亚利桑那州参议员鲁本·加列戈（Ruben Gallego）提出，并有多名民主党参议员联署。法案将 禁止美联储官员同时担任另一项由总统任命的职务，即便该官员已从另一职位休假（如米兰从白宫经济 顾问委员会主席一职），也明确禁止这种双重任职行为。 白宫官员斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）宣誓就任美联储理事数小时后，民主党人于周二在参议院提交 一项法案，旨在更明确地划分白宫与美联储之间的权力边界。 "不受政治异想天开影响的独立的美联储，是我国货币政策的基石，"加列戈在声明中表示，"米兰先生 已获得充分机会做正确的事——辞去白宫职务，但他拒绝了。" 该法案恐难成为法律，因其需在共和党控制的国会获得通过，并得到特朗普的签署。 周一晚间，米兰以48票赞成、47票反对的投票结果（投票基本按党派立场划分）获参议院确认，成为美 联储最新理事。随后他迅速宣誓就职，加入美东时间周二上午启动的美联储政策会议，预计在周三会议 结束时，美联储12人政策委员会将以多数票通过今年首次降息。 投资者热切关注，在这场市场普遍预期至少降息25个基点的会议上，米兰是否会支持特朗普提出的更大 幅度降息的要求。特朗普周一在社交媒体上发文 ...

Group 1 - The core concern among fund managers has shifted from "trade war causing global recession" to "second wave of inflation" as the biggest tail risk, with 26% of managers identifying it as such, a slight decrease from August [1] - 24% of fund managers view the loss of Federal Reserve independence and dollar depreciation as the largest tail risk, while 22% cite disorderly rise in bond yields [1] - Only 12% of fund managers consider "trade war causing global recession" as the biggest risk, significantly down from 29% in August [1] Group 2 - The survey indicates that "long on the tech giants" remains the most crowded trade, with 42% of fund managers holding this view, slightly down from 45% in August [3] - Other popular trades include long on gold (25%), short on the dollar (14%), and long on cryptocurrencies (9%) [3] - The survey was conducted from September 5 to 11, involving 165 fund managers managing a total of $426 billion in assets [3] Group 3 - Recent economic indicators show signs of rising inflation in the U.S., prompting some economists to advise the Federal Reserve to avoid significant rate cuts [4] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in August, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points from July [4] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting on September 16, with widespread expectations for a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the first cut in nine months [5] - Investors are particularly focused on the Fed's future policy path, with the upcoming dot plot and comments from Powell expected to provide further insights [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are expected to implement interest rate cuts to address the weakening labor market in the U.S. This marks a shift in monetary policy after a period of inaction due to inflation concerns related to tariffs [1][4] - President Trump has been pressuring for significant rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The final attendance list for the meeting may be confirmed on the evening before, with a new board member being confirmed by the Senate [1][4] - The upcoming press conference by Chairman Powell will provide insights into the latest economic forecasts and potential future interest rate directions [4] Group 2 - Analysts note that while officials may agree on rate cuts, disagreements regarding labor market conditions and inflation risks could hinder more aggressive measures. Continuous deterioration in the labor market is necessary for further rate cuts to be considered [4][5] - The composition of the Federal Reserve's voting members is under scrutiny, especially with the recent appointment of Trump's ally, Stephen Moore, which raises questions about the independence of the board [4][5] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the expected 25 basis point rate cut, with some officials advocating for larger cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates due to concerns over labor market and inflation [5]

Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to occur through three main avenues: 1) appointing a Fed chair who is loyal to him, anticipated to be nominated in November and take office in May next year; 2) restructuring the Fed Board to eliminate dissenting members and install loyalists; 3) influencing the appointment of regional Fed presidents whose terms expire in February [1][20]. - With the new Fed chair's appointment, it is projected that the Fed will have a more significant influence on monetary policy, potentially leading to a greater than expected rate cut in 2026, with policy rates possibly falling below the neutral level of 3% [1][20]. Economic Data Analysis - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, with supply adjustments lagging behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand. Specifically, investment has shown negative growth for two consecutive months, and retail sales growth has been declining since May [2][21]. - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to yield three outcomes: 1) GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%; 2) the current supply exceeding demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery; 3) if demand does not strengthen, supply will likely follow suit, leading to greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3 [2][21]. Industry Insights - The gaming industry in H1 2025 has shown strong performance, driven by innovative categories such as "micro-horror search and escape" and "overseas SLG," which have positively impacted the performance and valuation of corresponding companies [15]. - In the shipbuilding sector, new ship price indices remain high, and the merger of major shipbuilding companies is nearing completion, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Shipbuilding [15]. - The environmental sector is seeing advancements in pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, particularly in waste-to-energy projects, which could enhance the economic viability of green electricity supply [17][18].

Macro - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is primarily through three avenues: 1) Nominating a Federal Reserve Chair who aligns with his views, expected to be nominated in November this year and take office in May next year; 2) Adjusting the personnel structure of the Federal Reserve Board to exclude "outsiders" like Cook, while appointing "loyalists" like Milan to strengthen his influence; 3) Intervening in the appointment of regional Federal Reserve presidents, whose terms will expire at the end of February next year [1] - With the new Federal Reserve Chair's appointment, 4 out of 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board will be "loyalists," giving Trump greater influence, which implies: 1) On a macroeconomic level, the expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 may exceed the current market pricing of three cuts, with policy rates potentially falling below the neutral level of 3%, leading to a shift from a soft landing to moderate expansion in the U.S. economic cycle; 2) On the asset class level, excessive rate cuts under political pressure may weaken dollar interest rate expectations and widen dollar credit risks, corresponding to declines in 2-year Treasury yields and the dollar index, while the decline in 10-year Treasury yields may be hindered by widening term premiums [1]