Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been on the rise for three consecutive days, with expectations for a weekly gain, driven by renewed trade war concerns following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are experiencing upward momentum, with traders closely monitoring trade developments amid a quiet U.S. economic calendar [2]. - Safe-haven investments have resurfaced in the Asian trading session due to President Trump's tariff statements, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3]. - Trump's threats to impose a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, effective August 1, have dampened optimism regarding trade negotiations between Washington and Europe [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The instability of Trump's trade policies has weakened investor confidence, reigniting demand for both the U.S. dollar and gold as safe-haven assets [5]. - Despite the dollar's rebound, gold buyers remain undeterred, with anxiety surrounding the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are rebounding from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,297, reclaiming the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,325 [9]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surpassed the midline, currently near 50.50, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment towards precious metals [10]. - A daily close above the 50-day SMA at $3,323 is necessary for buyers to challenge the 21-day SMA at $3,344, with potential resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,377 [11].

Group 1 - The core difference between gold and silver lies in their attributes, with gold primarily having financial properties and silver possessing both industrial and financial properties, which significantly affects their market performance in 2025 [1] - Gold pricing is mainly driven by US dollar liquidity and safe-haven demand, while silver's industrial demand accounts for 58.5%, with a projected 18% growth in global photovoltaic installations, leading to a dual logic of "industrial drive + financial recovery" for silver in Q2 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - Fundamental analysis for gold focuses on monetary policy and geopolitical risks, while silver requires attention to industrial data; for instance, a rise in global manufacturing PMI above the neutral line would boost silver demand [4] - The volatility of silver is significantly higher than that of gold, making silver more suitable for short-term trading strategies, as evidenced by the higher volatility rates observed in July 2025 [5] Group 3 - In the context of the Federal Reserve's policy cycle, gold relies more on interest rate expectations, while silver's performance is influenced by both industrial data and the gold-silver ratio; a breakout in the gold-silver ratio can indicate potential valuation recovery for silver [6] - A practical case in June 2025 showed that gold rose by 2.8% due to increased steel tariffs, while silver surged by 5.3% driven by industrial demand expectations and gold-silver ratio recovery [7] Group 4 - The conclusion emphasizes that gold should focus on "monetary attributes + interest rate cycles," while silver should pay attention to "industrial demand + gold-silver ratio recovery," suggesting a dynamic balance strategy for both metals [8]

周四（7月10日）本交易日，美元下跌；国际银价上涨。由于市场波动、财政担忧以及美国赤字扩大的 背景下，投资者对白银的避险需求增加。 谈判的进展令人瞩目。消息人士透露，双方已就汽车关税税率和配额问题展开深入讨论，甚至提出了一 项创新机制：为在美国生产并出口的汽车制造商提供关税抵免。这一机制将惠及宝马和奔驰等企业，同 时也可能吸引大众汽车在美国追加投资。欧盟贸易执委谢夫乔维奇表示，未来几天内有望达成初步协 议。然而，特朗普政府对配额制持保留态度，这为谈判增添了不确定性。 【白银走势分析】 白银市场昨日开盘在36.758的位置后行情直接回落，日线最低给到了36.262的位置后行情整理，日线最 终收线在了36.381的位置后行情以一根下影线较长的光头大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日先回 落给出36.1多止损35.95，目标看36.4和36.6-36.75 【要闻聚焦】 欧盟正在加速与美国达成贸易协议，以避免特朗普政府设定的8月1日关税上调期限进一步冲击其经济。 据路透社报道，欧盟执委会正与美国方面讨论多项措施，包括削减汽车进口关税、设定配额以及为欧盟 汽车制造商提供出口抵免。汽车产业作为欧盟经济的支柱之一，其重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in demand for hedging has led to a significant increase in trading activity in the futures market, driven by multiple factors including trade policy uncertainty, rising U.S. debt risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Trading Activity - In June, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 740 million contracts and a turnover of 52.79 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 28.91% and 17.25% respectively [1]. - For the first half of the year, the cumulative trading volume reached 4.076 billion contracts with a turnover of 339.73 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 17.82% and 20.68% [1]. Factors Driving Activity - Increased trade friction has disrupted global commodity expectations, particularly in agricultural and energy sectors, leading to heightened hedging and speculative activities [1]. - The rise in U.S. debt risks has spread a risk-averse sentiment, making government bond futures and precious metals futures key asset allocation tools [1]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated instability in the energy and chemical sectors, further driving the "hedging + speculation" trading logic [1]. Market Innovations - The deepening reforms and innovations in the futures market have also contributed to active trading, with the introduction of new products and relaxed regulations for international participants [2]. - The trading volume of gold and oil has become a focal point, with gold and gold options seeing increases of 80.35% and 128.36% respectively in the first half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The overall trading activity in the futures market is expected to remain high in the second half of the year, driven by continuous investor expansion and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4]. - However, the growth rate may slow down, and there will be increased differentiation among trading varieties due to potential easing of geopolitical conflicts [4]. Specific Commodity Insights - Analysts remain optimistic about the gold futures market, expecting continued high trading volumes due to persistent global uncertainties and the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies [5][6]. - The container shipping index futures have recently rebounded, although the overall market remains under pressure from high supply and trade policy risks [6].

Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices showed a rebound after hitting a near two-week low of $3282.61 per ounce, closing at $3313.38 per ounce, indicating significant recovery momentum [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is driven by rising geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainties, and U.S. fiscal expansion, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The U.S. dollar index remains near a two-week high, exerting short-term pressure on gold, but the decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.34% partially offsets the impact of a stronger dollar [4][11] Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - The EU is accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S. to avoid tariff increases set by the Trump administration, focusing on reducing auto import tariffs and providing export credits for EU car manufacturers [5][6] - In-depth discussions on auto tariff rates and quotas have taken place, with proposals for providing tariff credits to manufacturers producing and exporting cars in the U.S., which could benefit companies like BMW and Mercedes [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance, with most policymakers focusing on potential inflation pressures from trade tariffs, maintaining the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50% [8][9] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low, but there is an increasing probability of a first cut in September, with a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by year-end being likely [9] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Market Performance - The U.S. Treasury auction of $390 billion in 10-year notes saw a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61, the highest since April, indicating reduced concerns about "selling U.S. assets" [10] - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.34% reflects alleviated worries about fiscal outlook, creating a favorable environment for gold price rebound [11] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Gold price fluctuations are influenced by trade negotiations, dollar movements, and Federal Reserve policies, with short-term pressures from a stronger dollar and Treasury yield volatility [12] - Investors are advised to monitor initial jobless claims data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches to gauge market sentiment changes [12]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing increased demand for safe-haven assets due to market volatility, fiscal concerns, and the expanding U.S. deficit, while the strong performance of the U.S. dollar is limiting silver's upward potential [2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The dollar index is trading around 97.30, while spot silver opened at $36.34 per ounce and is currently around $36.40 per ounce [1]. - On July 9, the dollar index closed at 97.49, with spot silver down 0.99% to $36.38 per ounce, while other precious metals showed mixed results [1]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from over two-week highs to 4.34%, providing some support for silver prices [2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly seeking silver as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical risks and unclear trade policies [2]. - The strong dollar is reducing silver's attractiveness to overseas buyers, impacting its price potential [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical analysts suggest that spot silver may decline to a range of $36.28 to $36.32 per ounce, having breached the critical support level of $36.36 [3].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Review - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Trump's new policies have increased geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty, boosting the safe - haven demand for gold. Although the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, which is negative for precious metals in the short - term, the long - term and medium - term upward trend of gold remains intact. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][5]. Summary by Section 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful Act" into law, and the U.S. Treasury accelerated debt issuance, causing the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields to rise, which was negative for precious metals. On the 9th Asian session, London gold fell to around $3285 per ounce. However, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on copper, drugs, and semiconductors and sell weapons to Ukraine to resist Russia also boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.87 | 775.87 | 765.83 | 767.30 | - 1.23% | 396,422 | - 2282 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,957 | 8,944 | 8,853 | 8,906 | - 0.57% | 881,108 | - 38229 | | Gold T + D | 771.51 | 771.00 | 761.46 | 763.50 | - 1.04% | 236,664 | 11684 | | Silver T + D | 8,923 | 8,907 | 8,815 | 8,856 | - 0.75% | 3,398,076 | 59188 | [5] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and high geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. The geopolitical risks in South Asia and the Middle East have provided short - term upward momentum for gold. In early June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and London silver soared from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six working days. It is expected that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the safe - haven and reserve diversification demand brought by the restructuring of the international trade and currency system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations. However, the high price and price - to - earnings ratio of gold also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising U.S. inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter [5]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors and drugs (up to 200% for drugs), with copper tariffs possibly implemented by the end of July or August 1 [17]. - Trump said the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries, which has drawn complaints from Brazilian President Lula. No specific implementation date was given [17]. - Trump approved the delivery of defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering additional sanctions against Moscow [17]. - The U.S. Treasury will increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and plans to increase the issuance of Treasury bills, focusing on short - term bonds. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the U.S. has received about $100 billion in tariff revenue so far this year, which may increase to $300 billion by the end of 2025 [18].

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures are experiencing sideways trading due to a lack of clear direction, influenced by mixed factors including delayed tariff imposition by the U.S. and a strengthening dollar, while geopolitical tensions and uncertainties continue to provide support [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Current gold prices are maintaining around $3,320 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1% for the week [1] - The Trump administration's decision to postpone the so-called "reciprocal" tariffs until August 1 has weakened some safe-haven demand, leading to an increase in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which competes with gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2: Support Factors - Despite the competitive pressures from the dollar and bond yields, new tariff threats and ongoing trade uncertainties continue to provide some support for gold prices [1] - Central banks around the world are persistently purchasing gold, which helps to stabilize the bottom for gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are stabilizing around $36.70, remaining near a 13-year high amid ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Silver is trading within a range of $35.50 to $37.30, with the 20-day moving average at $36.42 acting as immediate support [3][5]. - The recent announcement by Trump imposing a 25% tariff on 14 countries, including major trading partners like Japan and South Korea, has heightened trade tensions [2][3]. - The extension of the deadline for reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1 provides more negotiation time but keeps trade tensions elevated [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Silver prices have been consolidating for the past four weeks, reflecting a cautious stance among traders following a strong rebound in early June [5]. - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and the potential for a breakout, although a clear directional trigger is needed [5]. - Momentum indicators suggest a cautious bullish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, indicating moderate buying interest without signs of being overbought [5]. Group 3: Price Levels - A daily close above $37.30 would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially paving the way for prices to reach $38.00 and $39.00 in the short term [6]. - The first support level is at approximately $36.42, which aligns with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands; a break below this level could expose the lower end at around $35.72 [6]. - If the support at $36.42 fails, the next downside target would be $34.50, indicating a deeper corrective move [6].