王紫敬 ◎张玮华 记者 刘怡鹤 商业航天板块自2025年末启动一轮火爆行情并延续至今。日前，东吴证券研究所所长助理、计算机首席 分析师王紫敬在"上证首席讲坛"发表演讲并接受上海证券报记者专访时表示，商业航天将在2025年底到 2026年上半年迎来决定性拐点，并成为贯穿2026年全年的投资核心主线之一。建议优选龙头标的，在火 箭、卫星、SpaceX供应链等投资方向上实现平铺，把握市场分歧与波动机遇。 多因素支撑商业航天行情 王紫敬认为，支撑商业航天本轮强势行情的重要逻辑是，我国在大型可回收液体火箭领域发生了"从0到 1"的质变，同时产业具有足够宏大的未来叙事。 王紫敬认为，上述头部企业一旦登陆资本市场，将有助于提高整个商业航天板块标的的质量，并扩大其 容量，以弥补当前优质标的的稀缺性。SpaceX若登陆资本市场，可能成为有史以来市值最大的上市公 司之一。这些都将进一步提升资本市场对商业航天领域的关注度，并提振整个板块的估值中枢。 产业方面，今年最主要的看点在于我国一批新型号火箭的首飞，及其在可重复使用技术、卫星互联网组 网方面的突破。 "今年国内预计将有近十发新型号火箭首飞，我对此充满信心，相信创造行业历史的时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Promotion Conference was held, launching six common service platforms to enhance the development and support system of the aerospace industry in Beijing [1] Group 1: Service Platforms - Six common service platforms were initiated, including the Commercial Aerospace Measurement and Control Center, Common Testing Platform, Public Service Platform, One-Stop Service Platform for Aerospace Components and Applications, Spatiotemporal Information Service Platform, and Space Situation Awareness Service Cooperation Platform [1] - These platforms aim to address key issues hindering the industrialization of commercial aerospace, reduce R&D costs, and shorten development cycles, thereby promoting high-quality development and enhancing international competitiveness [1] Group 2: Operational Enhancements - The Commercial Aerospace Measurement and Control Center will be established at the Beijing Rocket Street Display and Control Center, integrating emerging technologies like artificial intelligence for satellite mission planning, resource scheduling, and situational monitoring [1] - This center will provide global measurement and control services, significantly improving the operational efficiency of commercial satellite constellations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of commercial space tourism and satellite technology is transforming the financial and agricultural sectors, with significant investments and advancements expected in the coming years [2][6][11]. Group 1: Space Tourism - Beijing's "Chuan Yue Zhe" company unveiled its manned spacecraft "Chuan Yue Zhe Yi Hao (CYZ1)" and has received over 20 reservations for space tourists, aiming for its first manned flight by 2028 [2][3]. - The initial list of space tourists includes notable figures such as academicians and entrepreneurs, indicating a broadening appeal of space travel beyond traditional demographics [2]. Group 2: Satellite Technology in Banking - The successful launch of satellites by China Merchants Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank integrates them into China's first global low-orbit satellite IoT constellation, enhancing financial risk management [4]. - China Merchants Bank utilizes remote sensing technology for high-precision monitoring of construction projects, achieving over 95% accuracy in monitoring [4]. - Other banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China, are also adopting satellite remote sensing for various applications, indicating a trend towards digital risk management in the banking sector [5]. Group 3: Commercial Space Industry Growth - The commercial space industry is experiencing rapid growth due to favorable policies, capital investment, and technological breakthroughs, with a projected industry financing total of 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 32% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - The establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies and supportive policies at both national and local levels is fostering the development of commercial space enterprises [6]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - 2025 is marked as the "Year of Reusable Rockets" in China, with 50 launches completed, accounting for 54% of the national total, indicating a significant shift towards operational efficiency in the industry [8]. - The development of large low-orbit satellite constellations is reducing manufacturing costs by approximately 30%, enhancing system reliability and service coverage [9]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead - The commercial space industry faces challenges in transitioning from concept to market viability, with questions about asset monetization and sustainable revenue generation [10]. - The industry is in a critical phase from 2025 to 2027, where establishing effective application scenarios and user willingness to pay will be essential for long-term success [10][11].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a resurgence in the technology sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4140 points after fluctuations, and the ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech Innovation Index rising by 1.72% and 0.71% respectively on January 27 [1][2] - The report highlights a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, where risk appetite has slightly increased, leading to a general rise in bond yields [1][4] - The overall A-share market saw a slight increase of 0.14%, with a total trading volume of 2.92 trillion yuan, down by 359.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1][2] Group 2 - The report notes a V-shaped recovery in the indices, with over 4000 stocks declining in the morning but later rebounding due to accumulated positions in a narrow trading range [2] - The current market structure is influenced by the flow of funds from commercial aerospace, with a focus on short-term elasticity and recent trends [2][3] - The report suggests that the recent decline in non-ferrous metals is more of a short-term fluctuation, with a mid-term trend still in place, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][3] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong market, non-bank financials are leading the upward trend after a short-term adjustment, while the internet and innovative pharmaceuticals are experiencing volatility with low trading volumes [3] - The report mentions that southbound capital has shown weak interest in Hong Kong stocks, with a net outflow for three consecutive days, although a weakening US dollar may benefit the Hong Kong market [3] - The central bank has increased liquidity support, with a significant reverse repurchase operation of 402 billion yuan, leading to a decrease in funding rates [3][4] Group 4 - The bond market is characterized by a lack of incremental information at the end of the month, with institutions returning to a stock-focused approach [4] - The report indicates that technology and small-cap indices are becoming indicators of interest rate trends, with a notable increase in long-term bond yields [4][5] - The report observes that credit bonds have outperformed interest rate bonds, driven by a shift in institutional behavior towards focusing on performance at the beginning of the year [5][6] Group 5 - The commodity market is experiencing significant emotional fluctuations, with precious metals like silver and gold seeing inflows, while industrial metals are under pressure [6][7] - The report highlights that the market is facing high volatility, with regulatory measures being implemented to cool down speculative trading [7][8] - Despite short-term regulatory disturbances, the long-term narrative for gold remains positive, with potential adjustments providing good investment opportunities [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the limited resources in low Earth orbit (LEO) and the accelerated competition among countries to secure these resources, particularly in satellite deployment and frequency bands [3][6][9] - Satellites are categorized into three types: scientific satellites, technology demonstration satellites, and application satellites, each serving distinct functions and applications [3][4] - The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) rules dictate a "first come, first served" approach for occupying orbital and frequency resources, leading to intensified competition among nations [9][10] Group 2 - The article highlights that the number of global rocket launches is on the rise, with the United States leading the growth, primarily due to SpaceX's advancements in reusable rocket technology [12][14] - SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket has significantly reduced launch costs, enabling large-scale deployment of the Starlink satellite constellation [15][21] - SpaceX has deployed nearly 10,000 satellites, aiming for a total of 42,000, establishing a dominant position in the global low Earth orbit communication network [21][23] Group 3 - Other countries and companies are also accelerating their satellite constellation deployments, with projects like OneWeb and Amazon's Kuiper Project emerging as competitors to SpaceX [23][24] - China's satellite constellation plans are ambitious, with over 200,000 satellites applied for, indicating a strong commitment to participating in the space race [26][27] - The demand for satellite launches in China is expected to surge between 2026 and 2030, driven by the need to meet ITU deployment requirements [28][30] Group 4 - The commercial space market is projected to reach $800 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% from 2025 to 2030 [34] - The commercial space industry encompasses a full value chain from materials to end-user applications, including satellite manufacturing, launch services, and satellite applications [37][38] - Companies like Xingtu and Chuangyuan are leading in satellite management services and satellite communication testing, respectively, showcasing the growth of specialized firms within the commercial space sector [40][43]

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of weekly announcements related to the stock market, including key events such as suspensions, investments, acquisitions, and performance reports, which are marked in red for easy identification [1] - The company is collaborating with Blue Arrow Aerospace to develop laser welding technology for large-diameter rocket engine interlayer nozzles, indicating a focus on aerospace innovation [1] - The company possesses mass production capabilities for core chips of 800G/1.6T optical modules, showcasing advancements in chip technology and commercial aerospace applications [1] - In the storage sector, the company has entered mass production of BT-type substrates for IC packaging, reflecting growth in the storage chip market [1]

1、两大巨头发布涨价函 存储进入"超级周期" 重要程度：★★★★★ 1月27日，中微半导、国科微2家半导体公司相继发出涨价函，公司旗下部分芯片产品将不同程度涨价。 中微半导发布的涨价通知函显示，鉴于当前严峻的供需形势以及巨大的成本压力，经过慎重研究，决定于 即日起对MCU、Norflash等产品进行价格调整，涨价幅度15%~50%。 国科微则宣布自1月起对合封512Mb的KGD(已知合格芯片)产品涨价40%，对合封1Gb的KGD产品涨价 60%，对合封2Gb的KGD涨价80%，对外挂DDR的产品价格另行通知。 国内外机构普遍预期——存储芯片正迎来超级周期，AI需求爆发和国产替代的双重支撑下，涨价趋势大概 率延续。 2、上期所再度出手，18名客户被限制开仓、限制出金 重要程度：★★★★ 1月27日，上期所发布公告，上海期货交易所发现3组18名客户在锡、白银期货品种交易中涉嫌未申报实际 控制关系，根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》《上海期货交易所实际控制关系账户管理办法》的相关规 定，决定对上述客户在锡、白银期货品种上采取限制开仓1个月以及限制出金的监管措施。 这是上期所连续两日对相关客户采取此类监管措施，前一日已对 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhenlei Technology expects significant growth in net profit for 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 123 million to 145 million yuan, representing an increase of 1.03 billion to 1.25 billion yuan compared to the previous year, with a year-on-year growth of 529.64% to 642.26% [2] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 104 million to 123 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses with an increase of 1.07 billion to 1.26 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a growth of 3678.27% to 4332.00% [2] Business Drivers - The increase in performance is attributed to rising demand from downstream customers in the special integrated circuit industry, driven by the domestic special industry cycle, and the company's proactive engagement in the satellite communication market, leading to accelerated market expansion and improved project delivery capabilities [5] - Cost control measures have also contributed to a decrease in operating expenses, enhancing operational efficiency and profitability [5] Market Position - Zhenlei Technology is recognized as a core component supplier in the commercial aerospace sector, with its stock price rising from a low of 55.84 yuan at the end of November 2025 to a historical high of 228.00 yuan by January 26, 2026, reflecting an increase of over 308% [6] - As of January 27, the stock price was 208.10 yuan, with a market capitalization of 44.54 billion yuan [6] Industry Outlook - The company is optimistic about future growth in both special and satellite communication fields, benefiting from accelerated equipment construction and increased domestic informationization and localization rates [9] - In the satellite communication sector, Zhenlei Technology maintains a leading position in traditional remote sensing satellite projects and has established significant advantages in low-orbit satellite constellations, anticipating substantial revenue growth from dense batch launches and network applications [9] Regulatory Environment - Zhenlei Technology received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding a potential violation of information disclosure laws, and the company is currently awaiting a conclusive opinion or decision from the regulatory body [9]

Group 1 - The overall fund position decreased marginally in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in the allocation to the CSI 300 index [6][14][23] - The allocation to the ChiNext board increased by 1.35 percentage points to 20.49%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 1.17 percentage points to 65.64% [14][21] - The allocation to cyclical sectors increased, while technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors saw a decrease in allocation [7][27] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, public funds increased their allocation to cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors [7][24] - The allocation to materials and mining sectors increased by 3.11 percentage points to 13.51%, while the allocation to information technology and hardware decreased by 2.45 percentage points to 26.23% [27][32] - The telecommunications sector saw an increase in allocation, while the electronics, healthcare, and media sectors experienced a significant decline [7][32] Group 3 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors increased, with the high-dividend industry holding rising by 1.18 percentage points to 5.88% [7] - The allocation to export-related sectors showed mixed results, with an increase in home appliances by 0.18 percentage points to 2.73% and a decrease in semiconductors by 0.39 percentage points to 12.52% [7] - The allocation to core assets decreased, particularly in the power and new energy equipment and food and beverage sectors [7][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings among the top five stocks increased to 15.61%, up by 2 percentage points from Q3 2025 [23] - The allocation to the telecommunications sector was notably increased, while the allocation to AI applications and quantum technology sectors was reduced [7][32]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Steel Research High-tech (300034.SZ), primarily engages in business related to commercial aerospace through customer support, rather than directly participating in the commercial aerospace sector. The revenue contribution from commercial aerospace is minimal and has not significantly impacted the company's operational data [1] Group 1 - The company currently does not directly engage in commercial aerospace business [1] - The business related to commercial aerospace constitutes a small proportion of the company's total revenue [1] - The minimal impact of commercial aerospace on the company's operational data is highlighted [1]