短期变量改善促预期向好 "可喜的进展""贸易局势的缓解""温和的增长"……一系列较为积极的表述，出现在7月29日国际货币基 金组织(IMF)首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙的演讲中。当天，IMF发布《世界经济展望报告》更 新内容，小幅上调今明两年世界经济增长预期。报告预计，2025年和2026年世界经济将分别增长3%和 3.1%，较今年4月预测值分别上调0.2和0.1个百分点。 IMF上调世界经济增长预期是基于多重因素的综合考量，这些因素包括：在美国加征关税预期下，进出 口前置效应强于预期；当前美国实际关税税率低于其4月宣布的水平；美元走弱改善金融环境，为全球 注入流动性；另有一些主要经济体实施了财政扩张政策。 不过，IMF也警告，世界经济活动在一定程度上因大幅加征关税预期而扭曲。今明两年，经济政策不确 定性仍将威胁世界经济稳定。贸易政策不确定性较高、地缘政治紧张局势升级、财政脆弱性加剧等构成 世界经济下行风险，各经济体应通过构建清晰透明的贸易框架减少不确定性。 美国总统特朗普无差别挥舞"关税大棒"，不仅在美国和其贸易伙伴国的信任关系上"砸"出一道道巨大裂 缝，也给处于调整期的世界经济格局"砸"出了一些新 ...

半导体行业 2025 年 8 月 8 日 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2025/07/25-2025/08/07） 行 业 把握模拟芯片涨价机遇与半导体中报行情 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业指数近两周涨跌幅：截至2025年8月7日，半导体行业指数近两 周（2025/07/25-2025/08/07）累计上涨4.24%，跑赢沪深300指数5.06个百 分点；2025年以来申万半导体行业指数累计上涨9.94%，跑赢沪深300指数 5.37个百分点。 SAC 执业证书编号： 半导体行业（申万）指数走势 行业新闻与公司动态：（1）火力全开，德州仪器6万 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the current market rally is driven by technology, with a clear "dual-driven" characteristic emerging, supported by multiple signals from trading behavior, capital flow, and institutional support [2][13][14] - The market is characterized by a "bottom-up" approach in an "incremental market" environment, leading to a structural market rally influenced by specific industry catalysts and micro signals [2][13][14] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to continue to attract significant capital, with a notable increase in institutional holdings in TMT-related industries, reflecting a strong preference for technology investments [19][21] Group 2 - In the "incremental market" environment, the TMT sector is less likely to experience a "zero-sum" game, with strong performance expected from segments supported by solid fundamentals [4][47] - The semiconductor industry is currently in an early to mid-stage of a growth acceleration phase, driven by AI demand, with high-end chips like GPUs and HBM experiencing sustained growth [4][52][53] - The report highlights the importance of the semiconductor cycle, indicating that the current phase may lead to significant investment opportunities across various technology sectors [52][53] Group 3 - The investment logic under the technology growth resonance includes a focus on the Nvidia supply chain, particularly in the communication sector, and the potential for recovery in previously undervalued segments [5][62] - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift towards domestic chip manufacturing and the expected growth in AI applications, which are anticipated to drive performance in the semiconductor and related sectors [63][69] - The media sector is entering a new cycle of recovery, with the gaming sub-sector showing potential for high returns due to AI-driven content innovation and improved market conditions [72][78] Group 4 - The military industry is highlighted as having increased long-term investment value due to global military power restructuring, with a focus on areas such as drones and missile technology [79][80] - The report suggests that the military sector's performance is closely aligned with growth style investments, indicating a strong potential for capital appreciation in this area [84]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's Q2 2025 performance is driven by "technology + localization," with a revenue of $4.456 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, outperforming industry growth [4]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $2.209 billion, a 1.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.4%, down 2.1 percentage points [6]. - For the first half of 2025, total revenue was $4.456 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.4%, up 7.6 percentage points [6]. - Capital expenditure for the first half was $3.301 billion, with a cash flow from operations of $1.07 billion and an investment cash flow of -$1.56 billion [6]. - Q3 guidance indicates a revenue increase of 5%-7% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin forecast of 18%-20% [6]. Business Highlights and Strategic Direction - Continued breakthroughs in advanced processes of 28nm and below, with significant revenue growth in analog chips and CIS, the latter increasing by 20% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - 8-inch capacity utilization reached 92.5%, up 2.9 percentage points, with a monthly capacity of 991,000 equivalent wafers [8]. - Domestic clients are accelerating the replacement of overseas shares, particularly in network equipment, with storage controller demand rising alongside domestic storage manufacturers' expansion [8]. - Revenue from automotive electronics accounts for 5%-6%, with a target to increase this to 10%, and a verification cycle of approximately 30 months [8]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies is expected to affect revenue by only 1.3%, mitigated by customer inventory buffers and localized supply chains [8]. Management Statements - CEO Zhao Haijun indicated that short-term growth in Q3 will be driven by smart home and industrial IoT sectors, while long-term automotive electronics capacity is expected to double by 2026 [8]. - CFO Wu Junfeng stated that product mix optimization could offset 2 percentage points of depreciation pressure on gross margin [8]. Investor Q&A Summary - The growth drivers for analog chips and CIS are primarily from market share gains and accelerated domestic substitution, alongside ongoing capacity shortages [9]. - October orders exceed capacity, with uncertainty in November and December, but the company expects minimal impact [9]. - North American revenue accounts for 12.9%, with proposed 100% tariffs expected to impact total revenue by approximately 1.3% [9]. - Q3 gross margin guidance is achievable by maintaining high capacity utilization (92%-93%) to dilute unit depreciation [9]. - The company has initiated production line construction focused on power management and third-generation semiconductors, with capacity currently tight [10].

华西证券认为，AI在海外算力链持续业绩高增与指引抬高的背景下保持高位，中短期存在筹码切换的 波动压力，但长期看，在推理算力及模型迭代升级驱动下，算力全产业链仍处于行业早期成长阶段，建 议持续关注。 相关ETF：公开信息显示，科创半导体ETF（588170）跟踪上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数，囊括 科创板中半导体设备（59%）和半导体材料（25%）细分领域的硬科技公司。半导体设备和材料行业是 重要的国产替代领域，具备国产化率较低、国产替代天花板较高属性，受益于人工智能革命下的半导体 需求扩张、科技重组并购浪潮、光刻机技术进展。 截至2025年8月8日 13点43分，上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数下跌0.96%。成分股方面涨跌互现， 新益昌领涨6.63%，中船特气上涨5.62%，华海诚科上涨1.69%；神工股份领跌4.33%，中芯国际下跌 4.02%，中科飞测下跌3.44%。科创半导体ETF（588170）下跌1.03%，最新报价1.06元。拉长时间看， 截至2025年8月7日，科创半导体ETF（588170）近1周累计上涨0.85%。流动性方面，科创半导体ETF （588170）盘中换手8.7%，成交368 ...

8月8日，A股市场震荡回调，科创芯片50ETF（588750）震荡走弱，截至13:37，跌2.17%，成交额超6100万元。 【科创芯片50ETF（588750）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 估算权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 688256 | 寒武纪-U | 电子 | -0.86% | 31.90亿 | 10.60% | | 2 | 688981 | 中本国际 | 电子 | -3.55% | 32.52 Z | 9.84% | | 3 | 688041 | 海光信息 | 电子 | -0.05% | 14.62亿 | 9.07% | | 4 | 688008 | 澜起科技 | 电子 | -0.73% | 12.27亿 | 8.41% | | ટ | 688012 | 中微公司 | 电子 | 0.88% | 8.07亿 | 7.10% | | 6 | 688521 | 芯原股份 | 电子 | -3.22% | 5.89亿 | 2.81% | | 7 | 6881 ...

北美云厂商资本开支持续上行；AI芯片国产化率有望持续加速。（1）7月大部分美股科 技股披露了二季度财报，A股也部分披露了中期业绩预告，具体来看：1）北美头部云厂商 Q2云业务维持高增速，资本开支持续上行。谷歌2025Q2云收入同比大涨32%，资本开支 224.46亿美元（yoy+70.23%），上调全年资本开支100亿美元至850亿美元；微软2025Q2智 能云业务增长26%，资本开支170.79亿美元（yoy+23.11%），预计Q3资本开支将超过300亿 美元，远超市场预期；Meta二季度AI驱动核心广告业务增长21.5%，资本开支165.38亿元 （yoy+37.16%），同时上调全年资本开支下限20亿美元至660亿美元；亚马逊2025Q2云计算 业务同比增长17.5%，资本开支313.68亿元（yoy+91.35%），并计划2025全年投入超1000亿 美元资本性支出，大部分用于AI与云业务扩张。2）部分A股端侧AI企业中期业绩亮眼。乐 鑫科技预计上半年营收同比增加33%-36%，归母净利润同比增加65%-78%；瑞芯微预计上半 年营收同比增长约64%，净利润同比增长185%-195%。（2）近期，国 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.08 晶圆代工行业龙头 25Q2 毛利率优于指引上限 [Table_Industry] 半导体 中芯国际及华虹半导体发布 25Q2 业绩 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 吴小沛(研究助理) | 021-23187269 | wuxiaopei@gtht.com | S0880125042240 | 本报告导读： 我们认为在工业及汽车需求修复下，晶圆代工产能利用率有望持续改善，叠加在 地化生产趋势确立，头部 Fab 有望实现业绩增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 半导体《AI 发展潜力大，半导体自主可控是关 键》2025.07.24 半导体《景气提升，关注晶圆代工产能扩张及先 进封装稀缺性》2025.07.21 半导体《沐曦股份及摩尔线程科创板 IPO 受理》 2025.07.04 半导体《设置科创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citi indicates that Huahong Semiconductor's Q2 revenue reached $566 million, showing a quarterly increase of 4.6%, nearing the upper limit of the company's guidance of $550 million to $570 million [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin for Q2 was 10.9%, an improvement of 1.7 percentage points from Q1, exceeding the guidance of 7% to 9% [1] - Capacity utilization increased by 5.6 percentage points to 108.3% [1] - Net profit was $8 million, a quarterly growth of 112.1%, but still below market expectations of $12.8 million [1] Market Outlook - Despite early inventory buildup in the first half of the year, demand in the second half is expected to be similar to the first half [1] - Price adjustments began in Q2, with expectations for average selling prices to see single-digit increases in the second half [1] Future Projections - The gross margin for Q4 is anticipated to maintain the level seen in Q3 [1] - The expansion of the 12-inch wafer fab (Fab 9) is progressing well, with new capacity expected to come online in 2027 [1] - Earnings forecasts for Huahong Semiconductor have been raised by 18% and 12% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, while the 2023 earnings forecast has been lowered by 31% due to increased tax [1] Investment Rating - The rating remains "Outperform" with the target price increased from HKD 36.9 to HKD 50.5 [1]

Overall Performance - Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC) reported a revenue of $2.2 billion for Q2 2025, slightly above market expectations of $2.16 billion, but a 1.7% decrease from the previous quarter, with guidance indicating a further decline of 4-6% [1][14] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 20.4%, reaching the upper limit of the guidance range (18-20%) and exceeding market expectations of 19.7% [1][4] Revenue and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in revenue was primarily attributed to a decrease in average selling prices, despite a 4.3% increase in product shipment volume [3][17] - The average selling price per wafer decreased by 5.7%, influenced by a higher proportion of lower-priced 8-inch wafer shipments [3][17] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the smartphone segment grew by only 1.7%, significantly lower than the double-digit growth seen in the past two years, while other segments like PC and consumer electronics experienced declines [2][24] - The company maintained over 80% of its revenue from the domestic market, driven by domestic substitution trends [2][7] Expenditure and Capital Investment - Operating expenses increased, with management expenses rising by 17.6% year-on-year, primarily due to higher factory setup costs [2][31] - Capital expenditure for the quarter was $1.885 billion, indicating a commitment to maintaining high levels of investment despite weak downstream demand [2][31] Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, SMIC expects revenue to increase by 5-7%, translating to $2.32-$2.36 billion, which is below market expectations of $2.37 billion [4][19] - The gross margin guidance for the next quarter is set at 18-20%, lower than the market expectation of 21.1% [4][22] Capacity Utilization and Market Trends - The capacity utilization rate for Q2 2025 was 92.5%, reflecting a slight recovery, primarily due to preemptive stocking of 8-inch wafers by customers [2][22] - The overall semiconductor market remains weak, with cautious outlooks from management regarding demand visibility in the second half of the year [7][9] Regional Revenue Distribution - The revenue from the China region accounted for 84.1% of total revenue, with a slight decline of 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [29][31] - The company’s revenue from the U.S. and Eurasia regions remained relatively low at 12.9% and 3%, respectively [29][31]