证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 作者 宏观点评 PMI 连续 8 月处于线下的背后 事件：2025 年 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（前值 49.0%）；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（前值 50.1%）。 核心观点：制造业 PMI 已连续 8 个月处于荣枯线下方，本月小幅回升 符合季节性；分项看，供给和外需反弹更多，新出口订单指数明显回 升、主因中美贸易局势短期缓和；服务业 PMI 超季节性回落，主因假 期效应消退、以旧换新政策效果减弱。继续提示：近几个月经济呈现加 速下滑的迹象，但全年"保 5%"有惊无险，短期紧盯 3 大会议：12 月 上中旬政治局会议&中央经济工作会议、对 2026 年政策定调，12.10 美联储议息会议、是否降息很关键。此外，也要关注其它 3 类政策： 我国会否降准降息（预计 2026 年一季度之前大概率会降）；稳地产可 能的组合拳；短期政策接续，包括四季度政策性金融工具、结存限额下 拨、重启买卖国债等政策的效果，各部门对 2026 年以旧换新、谋划新 一批重大项目的"吹风"等。 2、分项看，关注供需端、贸易端、价格 ...

Core Insights - China's consumption structure continues to optimize, with a retail sales growth of 4.3% year-on-year from January to October, and service retail sales increasing by 5.3% [1][5]. Group 1: Service Retail Growth - Service retail sales have accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% from January to October, which is 0.1 percentage points faster than the previous period and 0.9 percentage points higher than goods retail sales growth [2]. - Travel-related consumption showed positive momentum, with restaurant income growing by 3.8% in October, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to September [3]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - Various service categories, including cultural, recreational, transportation, and tourism consulting, maintained a growth rate of over 10% [4]. - The consumption upgrade policy has positively impacted sales, with communication equipment retail sales increasing by 23.2% and cultural office supplies by 13.5% in October [5]. Group 3: Regional Sales Performance - County and rural markets outperformed urban areas, with rural retail sales growing by 4.1% in October, reflecting the popularity of rural tourism [6]. - From January to October, retail sales in counties and rural areas grew by 4.6%, surpassing urban growth rates [6]. Group 4: Basic Goods Sales - Basic living goods showed strong sales, with over 70% of categories in large retail units experiencing growth. Food retail sales increased by 8.0%, clothing by 6.3%, and daily necessities by 7.4% in October [7]. Group 5: Upgraded Consumption Demand - There is an increasing demand for upgraded products, with sports and entertainment goods retail sales growing by 10.1% and cosmetics by 9.6% in October [8]. Group 6: E-commerce Growth - Online retail sales grew by 9.6% from January to October, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by 6.3%, outpacing overall retail sales growth by 2.0 percentage points [9].

Group 1 - The demand for home appliances has significantly improved, with the white goods sector showing a rebound in valuation. In the first nine months of 2025, air conditioning sales reached 90.81 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy implemented in July 2024 has positively impacted sales, particularly in the kitchen appliance sector, where retail sales of range hoods and gas stoves saw year-on-year increases of 14.9% and 15.7%, respectively [2][3][24] - The overall valuation of the home appliance sector has declined, but it is currently at a near-bottom level, indicating high cost-effectiveness for investment [2][3][29] Group 2 - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. **Dividend**: Leading white and black goods companies exhibit low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth, making them attractive for investment [4] 2. **Technology**: Core component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging tech fields such as robotics and data center cooling, seeking cross-industry transformation [4] 3. **Overseas Expansion**: The penetration rate of new consumer categories, such as clean appliances, is increasing, indicating substantial growth potential [4][5] Group 3 - The white goods sector is expected to maintain stable growth due to the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy, with head companies like Haier, Midea, and Gree being recommended for investment [4][5] - The kitchen appliance sector shows a clear division in performance, with traditional categories benefiting from government subsidies while new categories like integrated stoves face challenges [24][25] - The export market is experiencing a gradual decline in demand, with air conditioning exports dropping by 12.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, influenced by previous tariff policies and high base effects [3][9][18]

点评：龙头家电ETF（159730）今日上午涨幅达到0.09%，该ETF规模为0.33亿份，半日成交金额为560.69万元，其追踪的是国证龙头家电指数。 国证龙头家电指数反映沪深北交易所中家电行业优质上市公司的市场表现。该指数将权重更多地配置在细分领域的龙头企业中，如清洁电器、厨房电器以及 家电零部件逆变器等细分领域。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价(元) | 涨幅 (%) | 总金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512880 | 证券ETF | 1.186 | -2.55 | 24. | | 588200 | 科创芯片ETF | 2.162 | -3.44 | 22. | | 512000 | 券商ETF | 0.566 | -2.58 | 11. | | 515880 | 通信ETF | 2.479 | -4.58 | 10. | | 562500 | 机器人ETF | 0.933 | -1.27 | 10. | | 512480 | 半导体ETF | 1.334 | -3.26 | 10. | | 159755 | 电池ETF | 1.027 | -4.91 | ...

乘用车：11月1-16日，全国乘用车市场零售88.6万辆，同比去年11月同期下降14%，较上月同期下降6%，今年以来累计零售2,014.2万辆，同比增长7%；11 月1-16日，全国乘用车厂商批发102.1万辆，同比去年11月同期下降14%，较上月同期增长14%，今年以来累计批发2,479.5万辆，同比增长11%。 新能源：11月1-16日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售55.4万辆，同比去年11月同期增长2%，较上月同期增长7%，今年以来累计零售1,070.3万辆，同比增长 21%；11月1-16日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发61.8万辆，同比去年11月同期增长1%，较上月同期增长17%，今年以来累计批发1,267.5万辆，同比增长 28%。 渗透率：11月1-16日，全国乘用车市场新能源零售渗透率62.5%；全国乘用车厂商新能源批发渗透率60.6%。11月第一周全国纯燃料轻型车生产33.1万辆， 同比去年11月同期下降3%，较上月同期增长59%；11月第一周混合动力与插混总体生产18.5万辆，同比去年11月同期下降8%，较上月同期增长27%。 智通财经APP获悉，11月19日，乘联分会发布周度分析指出，11月1- ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a continued decline in the growth rate of social retail sales in October 2025, with expectations for more fiscal policies to support domestic demand and a recovery in consumer spending [1] Monthly Observation - In October 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points from September [1] - The consumption structure showed marginal recovery in food, beverages, tobacco, and catering due to holiday spending, while the "trade-in" policy's diminishing effect and a high base from the previous year led to negative growth in appliances and automotive categories [1] - Catering and above-limit catering revenue increased by 3.8% and 3.7% year-on-year, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 2.9 percentage points and 5.3 percentage points from September, supported by holiday travel [1] - Sub-sectors such as grain and oil food, beverages, and tobacco saw year-on-year increases of 9.1%, 7.1%, and 4.1%, respectively, with significant month-on-month improvements [1] Quarterly Observation - The growth rate of social retail sales is expected to continue declining in Q4 2025, although there may be marginal improvements in the growth rates of catering and food and beverage sectors [2] - In October 2025, the retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to Q3 2025, primarily due to the weakening effect of subsidy policies and a high base from the previous year [2] - The growth rates for grain and oil food, beverages, and tobacco in October 2025 improved compared to Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in food and beverage consumption [2] Industry Observation - The liquor industry is still in a bottoming phase, with structural differentiation in consumption during the October holiday, showing recovery in mass banquets and family gatherings, while business consumption remains weak [3] - The snack industry demonstrates resilience due to its high-frequency demand, supported by holiday consumption, with leading companies enhancing competitiveness through product innovation and channel expansion [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, highlighting a "Buy" recommendation for key players in the white goods segment due to their low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth potential [4]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with the sector index rising by 1.1% while the broader index fell by 1.1%. Key companies like Joyoung (26.6%), Lek Electric (12.2%), and Hisense (7.1%) led the gains, while companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control (-12.3%) and Roborock (-1.5%) faced declines [5][7]. - Stone Technology achieved significant sales growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, becoming the top brand in the cleaning appliance category with a market share of 34.75% in the sweeping robot segment and a 25.02% share in the washing machine segment, with net sales increasing by 408.52% year-on-year [11]. - Joyoung's new plant-based beverage, "Haqimi Green Bean Soy Milk," has gained popularity in the market, indicating strong consumer interest and potential for growth [12]. Sales Data Summary - **Air Conditioners**: In October 2025, online retail sales volume was 1.99 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%, while offline sales were 378,000 units, down 42.3%. The average online retail price decreased by 1.9% to 3,073 yuan per unit, and the offline average price fell by 12.2% to 4,330 yuan per unit [30]. - **Kitchen Appliances**: - **Range Hoods**: Online sales volume was 1.166 million units, down 8.6% year-on-year, while offline sales were 128,000 units, down 34.3%. The online average price increased by 8.5% to 2,005 yuan per unit, while the offline average price decreased by 5.5% to 4,422 yuan per unit [35]. - **Dishwashers**: Online sales volume was 187,000 units, down 29.1%, and offline sales were 34,000 units, down 26%. The online average price rose by 3.6% to 4,790 yuan per unit, while the offline average price fell by 1.6% to 8,195 yuan per unit [39]. Industry Dynamics - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. **White Goods**: The reversal of real estate policies is expected to boost the white goods sector, which is characterized by low valuations and high dividends. The "trade-in" policy may catalyze growth, and rising copper prices are generating positive sentiment in the channel [4]. 2. **Exports**: Companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. are recommended due to their stable income growth driven by large customer orders and recovery in overseas demand [4]. 3. **Core Components**: The report highlights the increased demand for core components driven by the white goods sector's unexpected growth, recommending companies like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment for their competitive advantages and growth potential [4].

Core Insights - The automotive market in China is experiencing strong growth driven by government policies promoting consumption, with significant recovery observed in both truck and passenger vehicle markets in October [1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles showed negative growth in October due to slower wholesale transmission, while manufacturer sales remained strong due to exports and inventory increases [1] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) segment is performing well, with structural growth in the commercial vehicle market driven by electrification [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The automotive market is expected to see a divergence in trends between passenger and commercial vehicles by 2025, with passenger vehicle growth projected at 13% due to policy support [2][4] - In the first ten months of 2025, total automotive sales reached 27.52 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12% [6] - October 2025 saw total automotive sales of 3.32 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9% [6] Group 2: Company Performance - There is a significant performance divergence among major automotive groups, with state-owned enterprises facing challenges while companies like BYD and Chery are performing well [9][12] - In October, manufacturers like Geely and BYD showed strong month-on-month performance, while SAIC Volkswagen faced substantial year-on-year adjustments [15] - The market is witnessing a shift where private enterprises are increasingly replacing state-owned enterprises as industry leaders, with companies like Geely, BYD, and Chery maintaining high growth rates [12][13] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles - In the first ten months of 2025, new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 12.07 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30% [25] - October 2025 saw new energy passenger vehicle sales of 1.62 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18% [25] - The growth in new energy vehicles is supported by scrappage subsidies, manufacturer price reductions, and the introduction of new models [25] Group 4: Traditional Vehicles - Traditional fuel passenger vehicle sales in 2023 remained stable at 16.66 million units compared to 2022, but are projected to decline by 10% in 2024 [30] - The market for traditional vehicles is under pressure due to ongoing declines, although there has been some recent recovery from June to October [30] Group 5: Commercial Vehicles - In 2023, total truck sales reached 3.54 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 19% [39] - October 2025 saw truck sales of 310,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22% [39] - The commercial vehicle market is experiencing strong performance from leading manufacturers, particularly in the electric truck segment [41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economic growth is facing challenges, with a decline in social retail sales and an increase in core CPI, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3][12] - In October, the social retail sales total increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for five months, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, indicating a potential turning point in consumer demand [2][8] - Experts highlight a "supply-demand imbalance" in the economy, emphasizing the need for enhanced consumer demand to address the declining retail sales growth [2][12] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to factors such as the consumption stimulus from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as rising gold prices, with service prices also showing a recovery [7][8] - The core CPI's growth reflects improvements in terminal consumer demand, but it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices, which remain low [13][14] - The overall CPI has been operating at low levels, with experts suggesting that while the core CPI's increase is a positive sign, it is not sufficient to confirm a definitive turning point in the economy [11][12]

Data Summary - In the first three quarters of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 and 1.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire previous year respectively [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has shown significant effects, with retail sales of furniture increasing by 21.3%, and home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as cultural and office supplies, growing by 25.3% and 19.9% respectively, indicating a notable acceleration compared to the previous year [1] - As of September 10, over 8.3 million applications for the "old-for-new" car policy have been submitted nationwide, averaging over 30,000 applications per day [1] Case Study - In a Beijing auto dealership, various cars displayed prominent subsidy tags, attracting many customers. A customer noted that the combination of new energy vehicle subsidies and "old-for-new" incentives resulted in a total discount of 20,000 yuan [2] - The fourth quarter has seen the allocation of 69 billion yuan in national subsidies, completing the distribution of 300 billion yuan in central funds for the "old-for-new" policy this year, which supports the upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival [2] - The combination of "old-for-new" and national subsidies has significantly stimulated consumer enthusiasm, leading to a vibrant consumption market and an optimization of consumption structure, with high-efficiency and smart home appliances seeing sustained high growth in retail sales [2] Expert Commentary - According to an expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 330 million people have applied for the "old-for-new" policy from January to August, driving related sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan and supporting a 4.5% growth in retail sales of consumer goods [3] - The policy has notably promoted the upgrade of consumer goods, invigorating the market and improving residents' quality of life, while also accelerating product and capital turnover for enterprises [3] - The current period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, with an emphasis on enhancing consumer capacity and demand, necessitating local governments to implement measures to stimulate consumption and optimize policies across various dimensions [3]