Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a stronger US CPI is likely to exert downward pressure on gold prices, while potential pullbacks may present buying opportunities [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On July 14, international gold opened high at $3363.64 per ounce, reached a three-week high of $3374.55, but ultimately closed at $3343.27, down $14.49 or 0.43% from the previous close [1]. - The trading range during the day was between $3353 and $3375, with a daily fluctuation of $33.66 [1]. Economic Indicators - The market is anticipating the release of the US June CPI data, which is expected to show an increase, indicating stronger inflation and potentially reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, thereby negatively impacting gold prices [5][6]. - The average tariff rate between China and the US has increased significantly from 3% to 145% from 2018 to 2025, contributing to ongoing market uncertainties [5]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase, with potential risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 if key support levels are breached [8]. - Current trends remain above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a sustained bullish outlook unless this support is broken [8]. - The weekly chart shows gold prices maintaining above the mid-band, with indicators suggesting a potential for a pullback but still presenting buying opportunities near support levels [10]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3339 or $3330 and resistance at $3355 or $3365 for gold, while silver has support at $38.00 or $37.65 and resistance at $38.60 or $39.00 [11].

据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美方将就关税问题与各国展开磋商，并且对包括欧洲在内的贸 易谈判持开放立场。与此同时，欧盟方面也将前来与美方讨论贸易问题。特朗普还称，目前美方已达成 一些贸易协议。近日，特朗普先后致信20多个国家领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。他 还宣布，从8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。 ...

特朗普：（在关税问题上）始终对包括欧洲在内的谈判持开放态度。 ...

特朗普：将就关税问题与各国对话。 ...

巴西部长：巴西政府仍在就关税问题进行初步磋商。 ...

需要加强国会对美联储建筑的监督。 不会对"我出任美联储主席"进行猜测。 美国白宫经济委员会主任Hassett：美联储在关税问题上"非常错误"。 必须重新思考美联储行动的方式。 ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：美联储在关税问题上"非常错误"。 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing adjustments due to a self-correction of excessive risk appetite, with significant fluctuations observed from July 9 to 11, where daily adjustments exceeded 1 basis point [1][22][25] - Despite the frequent negative rotations in the bond market, key variables influencing the market direction, such as fundamentals, central bank attitudes, and external circulation pressures, have not changed [1][25][37] - The report highlights that the bond market's pricing reference may shift from the stock market to fundamentals as economic data is released, indicating a weak correlation between stock market rebounds and bond market pricing [3][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to the 10-year and 30-year government bonds returning to relatively high positions at 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less responsive to negative news [4][37] - It emphasizes that the liquidity situation will be a critical observation period for the central bank's attitude, especially with a significant funding gap expected in mid-July [4][26][39] - The report suggests that despite recent increases in funding prices, overnight rates remain relatively low, indicating that leverage strategies may still be preferred in July [6][39][40] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent adjustments in the bond market, where the duration of bond funds has decreased, reflecting a shift in market behavior as institutions reduce their duration amid tightening liquidity [6][24][25] - It also mentions that the government bond issuance volume remains above 400 billion, indicating ongoing government financing activities [6][21] - The report highlights that the leverage ratio in the non-bank sector has decreased significantly, indicating a market-wide trend towards deleveraging [6][24] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent changes in the interest rate environment, with the overnight rates rising to 1.40% and 1.51% for R001 and R007, respectively, indicating a tightening liquidity situation [15][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to a significant increase in the issuance rates of certificates of deposit, reflecting rising costs for banks [29][30] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the long-end segment, where yields have been affected by negative rotations [17][16] Group 5 - The report indicates that the recent changes in tariffs by the U.S. government may have implications for global trade dynamics, with increased tariffs on key countries potentially impacting the bond market [31][32] - It suggests that the market is currently cautious regarding tariff changes, with a wait-and-see approach being adopted by investors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's response to external factors, such as tariffs, may not be immediate, and investors are advised to monitor developments closely [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stock markets rising, bond yields mostly increasing, and the US dollar index strengthening. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues are causing market uncertainty and potential volatility [1][2] - The US is imposing high reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries, aiming to pressure trade partners into reaching agreements. The US dollar may remain strong in the short - term, but faces downward pressure in the medium - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [35][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stock markets rose, bond yields mostly increased, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.41%. The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.4, and the spot commodity index rose, with Brent crude oil up 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with US stocks falling and A - shares rising. The S&P 500 dropped 0.31%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues may cause the stock market to face downward pressure and adjustment risks [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.41%. Eurozone government bonds mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields mostly rebounded. The US bond supply pressure is not fully reflected, but inflation pressure is increasing, and bond yields are expected to continue rising [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB fell 0.12%, the euro dropped 0.77%, the pound fell 1.16%, the yen declined 2.05%, and the Swiss franc dropped 0.33%. The Brazilian real and the South African rand fell more than 2%, and the South Korean won, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, etc. also declined [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce. The upcoming US tariffs increased market risk aversion, and gold prices are expected to remain high with potential increased volatility. Brent crude oil rose 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, but the US tariff on copper imports caused Comex copper to strengthen, and the commodity spot index rose [29][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US reciprocal tariffs are back, and market volatility has intensified. The US is imposing high tariffs on multiple countries, and the trade negotiation progress is slow. The US dollar may be strong in the short - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [33][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Events - China's June foreign trade and financial data, the second - quarter GDP, the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, the Fed's Beige Book, Japan's June CPI, and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations will be released [37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Germany's major industry associations urge Europe not to be intimidated by the US's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods and to seek equal solutions while reducing dependence on the US market [1] - Dirk Jandura, president of the German Wholesale and Foreign Trade Association, states that the tariff announcement is part of Trump's negotiation strategy and emphasizes the need for calm negotiations [1] - The German Automotive Industry Association warns of escalating risks in transatlantic trade relations, highlighting that German companies are already facing billions of euros in additional costs [1] Group 2 - Wolfgang Niedermark from the Federation of German Industries expresses concerns that using tariffs as a political tool will increase costs, threaten jobs, and weaken the global competitiveness of EU and US products [1] - Current US tariffs include a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [2] - Recent data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany shows a 1.4% month-on-month decline in German exports in May, with exports to the US dropping by 7.7%, the lowest level in over three years [2]