关税问题

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铜:宏观不确定性较高 中期延续谨慎态势
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 12:37
SHMET 网讯: 征稿(作者:弘业期货 张天骜)--在经过长期的博弈和多轮谈判后,目前关税问题仍未有明显进展。中 美临时保持10%关税至8月10日,而美国对其他国家保持10%临时关税至7月9日。未来关税问题仍是影 响全球经济增长的最主要因素,存在较大的不确定性。 一、行情回顾 (一)一季度有色金属走势偏强 2025年国际宏观环境风云突变,大宗商品市场波动较大。一季度市场受到美联储降息预期和中国经济温 和反弹的支撑,市场整体走势偏强。汇率方面,美元持续大跌,人民币小幅上涨。在外部形势恶化的压 力下,中国保持政策定力。在并未实施大规模经济刺激的情况下,经济数据稳中有升,给市场带来的更 好的预期。一季度,国内工业品和农产品多数震荡走高。 (二)关税影响,4月初有色金属大跌后持续反弹 进入4月后,美国对等关税政策对市场造成巨大冲击,市场情绪急转直下。避险情绪推动,工业品全面 暴跌,农产品大涨。但很快美国宣布将对等关税推迟90日执行,同时与各国逐步展开贸易谈判,市场情 绪明显好转。因此,4月初大跌后,有色金属震荡反弹,目前回到4月初价格附近。 二、宏观基本面情况 (一)关税仍是最大变数 4月3日,美国公布对等关税计划 ...
别为中东停火高兴太早!下一个引爆市场的“靴子”又将落下
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 10:26
有三大主要原因可能让关税问题重新咆哮着回到投资者的视野中。 第一便是地缘政治近期盖过了贸易战的风头。近几周的以色列-伊朗冲突占据了投资者的大量注意力, 但该事件的风险似乎正在减弱。就波动性而言,下一只落地的靴子很可能就是特朗普贸易战的"新篇 章"。 其次,关税对通胀的影响可能存在滞后性。经济学家警告说,近几个月显示通胀降温的数据可能不会持 久。摩根士丹利表示,这是因为关税对价格的影响可能需要一段时间才能显现,并补充说,他们认为通 胀可能在今年夏末有所回升。美联储主席鲍威尔也表示,在6月、7月和8月将会看到关税对通胀产生显 著影响。 最后,美联储的政策可能因关税的滞后影响而变得复杂。市场,以及特朗普本人一直在呼吁美联储降低 利率,但如果通胀抬头,那将成为美联储和鲍威尔维持利率不变的又一个理由。 近期,关于关税的大部分焦点都集中在美联储维持利率不变的决定上,而特朗普对此一直持高度批评态 度。 摩根士丹利发出警告:注意7月9日!届时一场新的风暴将重新席卷全球市场…… 尽管市场因周二以色列与伊朗达成停火而松了一口气,但投资者很快就要重新思量另一个曾在今年早些 时候引爆市场波动的问题。 摩根士丹利在近期发表的一份报告中 ...
银行股,又新高了!
格隆汇APP· 2025-06-23 10:29
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered a new adjustment phase since June 13, with the banking sector showing resilience while new consumption stocks face significant declines [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share banking sector has risen nearly 4% over six days, ranking first among all industries, and has been on an upward trend for two and a half years, nearing the peak of the 2007 bull market [1]. - The overall market turnover has decreased significantly, with recent trading days seeing around 1.1 trillion yuan, down from 1.5 trillion yuan [1]. New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector has experienced a sharp decline since June 5, with leading companies like Zhongchong Co. and Chaohongji seeing drops exceeding 20% [2]. - The market's previous optimism around new consumption stocks has been undermined by a lack of fundamental support and high valuations, leading to a prolonged adjustment phase [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, with the "trade-in" category growing by 34% [3]. - The strong retail sales data suggests that the need for stimulus measures may diminish, impacting the outlook for new consumption stocks [3]. Liquidity Conditions - There are signs of tightening liquidity in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening to manage currency fluctuations, which could affect the performance of Hong Kong stocks [5]. - The previous liquidity support that fueled the rise of new consumption stocks is reversing, contributing to the sector's decline [5]. Investment Shifts - Investors initially expected to shift from new consumption stocks to technology stocks, but this has not materialized due to overall market conditions and low trading volumes [7]. - The banking sector is expected to remain a safe haven for investors, with significant interest from institutional players [16]. Sector Analysis - The A-share market's dividend sectors are categorized into four main areas: resource, financial, natural monopoly, and broad consumption [8]. - The oil sector has seen a recent surge, with Brent crude oil prices rising nearly 20% since June 11, but concerns about geopolitical tensions may lead to volatility [9][10]. - The coal sector has underperformed, with a 12% decline this year due to falling prices and weak demand from the real estate sector [14]. Strategic Outlook - Given the current market conditions, a conservative approach is recommended, with a focus on reducing positions and waiting for better opportunities [19]. - The banking sector is highlighted as a potential area for investment, despite its declining fundamentals, due to the support from state-owned entities [16].
欧洲央行管委内格尔:如果无法与华盛顿就关税问题达成良好的妥协,美国公民将承担更高的成本,而非欧洲的人民。
news flash· 2025-06-19 09:43
欧洲央行管委内格尔:如果无法与华盛顿就关税问题达成良好的妥协,美国公民将承担更高的成本,而 非欧洲的人民。 ...
欧洲央行管委内格尔:我们希望能够说服华盛顿相信在关税问题上什么是正确的、什么是错误的。
news flash· 2025-06-19 09:39
欧洲央行管委内格尔:我们希望能够说服华盛顿相信在关税问题上什么是正确的、什么是错误的。 ...
加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆:不能让关税问题演变成通胀问题。
news flash· 2025-06-18 15:16
Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, emphasized the importance of not allowing tariff issues to escalate into inflation problems [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Implications - Macklem highlighted that tariffs should not be allowed to contribute to inflationary pressures, indicating a proactive stance on managing economic stability [1] Policy Recommendations - The Bank of Canada is focused on ensuring that trade policies do not adversely affect inflation, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of tariff impacts on the economy [1]
银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250618
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 14:10
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 06 月 18 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: F3013727 投资咨询证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13545 | 15 | 23,412 | -3475 | 151,537 | 3618 | | CF05合约 | 13540 | 5 | 1,897 | 1318 | 4,409 | 779 | | CF09合约 | 13540 | 15 | 124,617 | -21025 | 533,428 | -118 | | CY01合约 | 19810 | 19810 | 2 | 2 | 37 | -1 | | CY05合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 19840 | 65 | 7430 | 1 ...
黑色金属数据日报-20250618
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:46
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The steel market is in a volatile range. The upward rebound trading story is not well - developed, and the cost - collapse narrative is also unsmooth. The price will enter a period of tug - of - war, and the rebound height of finished products is relatively limited. It is advisable to hedge at the upper limit of the range and rotate inventory during the volatile period. The steel basis maintains a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there may be a reverse - spread logic in the spot off - season [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot - end coking coal auctions continue to weaken, but the rate of unsuccessful auctions has decreased. Big mines have lowered long - term agreement prices. The market still expects coke price cuts. On the futures side, coking coal prices were affected by supply - side news but did not hold above 800. The black - chain index is weak, and the 20 - day line shows obvious pressure. It is recommended that industrial customers actively participate in hedging, and wait and see for unilateral trading [6]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable and follow the steel market. Ferrosilicon production has decreased in some regions, but demand has weakened, and costs have declined. Silicomanganese supply has increased, demand has weakened, and cost support has also weakened [7]. - Iron Ore: The overall situation of the iron ore market remains weak. Iron ore shipments are increasing, and port inventories are starting to accumulate. The downstream pressure is intensifying, and it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices and Changes**: - On June 17, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2974 yuan/ton (unchanged), HC2601 at 3091 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan, 0.10% increase), I2601 at 670 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan, - 0.15% decrease), J2601 at 1388 yuan/ton (up 13.5 yuan, 0.98% increase), and JM2601 at 807 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan, 1.13% increase). - For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2981 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan, 0.17% increase), HC2510 at 3093 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan, 0.13% increase), I2509 at 699 yuan/ton (down 0.5 yuan, - 0.07% decrease), J2509 at 1365.5 yuan/ton (up 13.5 yuan, 1.00% increase), and JM2509 at 789.5 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan, 0.70% increase) [2]. - **Spread and Ratio**: - On June 17, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 7 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), between HC2510 and HC2601 was 2 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), between I2509 and I2601 was 29 yuan/ton (down 0.5 yuan), between J2509 and J2601 was - 22.5 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), and between JM2509 and JM2601 was - 17.5 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan). - The coil - to - rebar spread was 112 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26 (up 0.02), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.73 (up 0.01), the rebar disk profit was 187.15 yuan/ton (up 2.83 yuan), and the coking disk profit was 315.47 yuan/ton (up 2.48 yuan) [2]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On June 17, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3100 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3160 yuan/ton respectively (all unchanged). The price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and the Platts Index was 93.10 (down 1.15). The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3170 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 3220 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 3150 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively. The billet - to - product spread was 190 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the price of PB ore at Rizhao Port was 716 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot price of coking coal at Ganqimao Port: Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 700 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal was 860 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 3 cleaned coal was 70 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Hebei Tangshan was 1015 yuan/ton. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port (ex - warehouse) was 1335 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Basis**: On June 17, the basis of HC (main contract) was 77 yuan/ton (down 39 yuan), RB (main contract) was 119 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), I (main contract) was 31 yuan/ton (unchanged), J (main contract) was 104.98 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), and JM (main contract) was 30.5 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan) [2].
日本央行行长植田和男:通胀预期尚未稳定。将继续实施相关政策,以使通胀走势锚定在2%。关于ETF持有的讨论仍需时间,这一观点没有变化。关税问题可能对冬季奖金产生负面影响,也可能影响明年的春季工资谈判。
news flash· 2025-06-17 07:05
日本央行行长植田和男:通胀预期尚未稳定。 关税问题可能对冬季奖金产生负面影响,也可能影响明年的春季工资谈判。 将继续实施相关政策,以使通胀走势锚定在2%。 关于ETF持有的讨论仍需时间,这一观点没有变化。 ...