美联储理事库格勒：通胀仍高于2%目标，劳动力市场稳定且富有韧性。 ...

英国央行货币政策委员曼恩：委员会对需求状况的实际状态以及其在劳动力市场中的表现存在不同看 法。 ...

Employment Market Overview - The employment rate for individuals aged 16-64 in the UK rose to 75.1% from February to April 2025, indicating a positive aspect of the job market [1] - However, the number of salaried employees decreased by 55,000 (0.2%) in March-April 2025 and by 115,000 (0.4%) from April 2024 to April 2025, suggesting a cautious hiring strategy among UK businesses [1][3] Public vs. Private Sector Employment - Public sector employment remained stable at 6.15 million in March 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, while private sector employment growth faced different challenges [3] - This disparity provides insights for investors, indicating that stable public sector-related industries may offer defensive investment opportunities, while emerging sectors in the private sector also hold potential [3] Unemployment and Economic Inactivity - The unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 and above reached 4.6% from February to April 2025, showing an increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, which raises concerns about economic growth [3] - The economic inactivity rate for those aged 16-64 decreased to 21.3%, but a significant portion is attributed to long-term illness and students, highlighting structural issues in the labor market [3] Wage Growth and Job Vacancies - Average wage growth for employees was notable, with regular wages increasing by 5.2% and total wages by 5.3% from February to April 2025, leading to improved consumer purchasing power [4] - Job vacancies fell to 736,000 from March to May 2025, marking a continuous decline over 35 quarters, indicating weakened labor demand and cautious investment in labor-intensive sectors [4] Consumer Sector Opportunities - With rising wages, the consumer sector is expected to experience growth, particularly in mid-to-high-end consumption areas such as premium retail, quality dining, and personalized travel services [5] - UK high-end fashion brands may benefit from increased disposable income, leading to higher sales, while specialty tourism projects and luxury hotels are also likely to gain from the consumption upgrade trend [5] Healthcare Sector Investment Potential - The high proportion of long-term illness in the economically inactive population underscores pressure on the UK healthcare system, presenting investment opportunities in medical device development and biopharmaceuticals focused on chronic disease treatment [6] Education and Training Sector Growth - The shortage of skilled labor in the UK is driving demand for education and training, particularly in vocational skills training and online education platforms, which are poised for significant growth [7] Human Resources Services Demand - Despite an overall decline in job vacancies, there remains a strong demand for high-end and specialized talent recruitment, suggesting that human resources service firms focusing on high-end talent acquisition may thrive [8]

美联储洛根：通胀趋缓、劳动力市场疲软可能会促使利率"相当快"地下降。 ...

Core Insights - The Canadian labor market showed positive changes in June 2025, with employment increasing by 83,000 (+0.4%), leading to an employment rate of 60.9% and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.9% [1] - The growth in employment was primarily driven by the core age group of 25-54 years, with male employment rising by 62,000 (+0.8%) and female employment by 29,000 (+0.4%) [1] - The youth and 55+ age groups showed little change in employment, indicating stable employment willingness and market demand in these demographics [1] Industry Analysis - The wholesale and retail sector saw a significant increase in employment by 34,000 (+1.1%), reflecting a vibrant consumer market and strong growth potential for related companies [2] - The healthcare and social assistance sector added 17,000 jobs (+0.6%), driven by aging population trends and increased health awareness, indicating long-term investment potential [2] - Conversely, agricultural employment decreased by 6,000 (-2.6%), suggesting potential challenges in the sector that investors should monitor [2] Regional Employment Trends - Employment growth was uneven across regions, with Alberta leading with an increase of 30,000 jobs (+1.2%), followed by Quebec (+23,000, +0.5%), Ontario (+21,000, +0.3%), and Manitoba (+8,500, +1.2%) [2] - The employment growth in these provinces is expected to boost local economic activity, consumption, and investment opportunities [2] Wage and Hour Trends - Total hours worked in June increased by 0.5%, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, indicating rising production demand and active business operations [3] - The average hourly wage rose by 3.2% to CAD 36.01, enhancing consumer purchasing power and reflecting a balanced labor supply-demand relationship [3] - Compared to the U.S., Canada has a higher employment rate, suggesting a more favorable environment for labor market participation, which could attract international investment [3]

现货黄金报3329附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报37.15美元/盎司； 基本面： 周五（7月11日）银价早盘压力位震荡，白银价格长时间保持区间震荡行情，适当减少白银的投资时间周期，同时也可以减少白银的仓位，短期交易或者观 望为主。基本面美国劳动力市场的最新数据为金市分析提供了重要背景。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至7月5日当周，初请失业金人数意外降至22.7 万人，低于市场预期的23.5万人，创七周以来最低水平。这一数据表明，尽管劳动力市场存在降温迹象，雇主仍在努力留住员工，显示出劳动力市场的韧 性。然而，续请失业金人数却升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，达到196.5万人，表明失业者寻找新工作的难度正在增加。景顺固定收益首席策略师Rob Waldner评论称，当前劳动力市场呈现出"停滞"特征，企业倾向于通过降低员工流失率和减少招聘来控制成本，而非大规模裁员。这种低裁员、低招聘的趋 势使得劳动力市场保持了相对稳定，但也为经济前景蒙上了一层不确定性。 劳动力市场的复杂信号对黄金市场的影响是双重的。一方面，强劲的就业数据提振了美元和美债收益率，进一步压制金价；另一方面，劳动力市场潜在的疲 软迹象可能在未来为黄 ...

Core Insights - The labor market is cooling down, indicating a shift in economic conditions [1] - Economic growth is trending towards moderation, suggesting a more stable economic environment [1] - However, there has not been any substantial evidence of economic weakness in the data [1] Labor Market - The cooling of the labor market suggests a potential easing of inflationary pressures [1] - This shift may impact wage growth and employment rates in the near future [1] Economic Growth - The moderation in economic growth reflects a balanced approach to recovery post-pandemic [1] - The current economic indicators show stability rather than volatility [1] Data Analysis - Despite the cooling labor market and moderate growth, the data does not indicate any significant downturn [1] - Continuous monitoring of economic indicators will be essential to assess future trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic situation is favorable, with the labor market at or near full employment, while inflation presents some upward risks [1] Economic Conditions - The overall economic conditions are described as good, indicating a positive outlook for growth and stability [1] - The labor market is reported to be strong, suggesting robust job creation and low unemployment rates [1] Inflation Risks - There are identified upward risks to inflation, which could impact future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu has experienced significant population growth, with a 30% increase over the past five years, reaching a resident population of 21.47 million, which has elevated its urbanization rate above the national average [3][4][5]. Population Growth and Composition - Chengdu's resident population increased from 16.58 million to 21.47 million over five years, with a net increase of nearly 4.9 million [3][4]. - In 2020, Chengdu's resident population was 20.93 million, with 6.39 million being external migrants, accounting for 31% of the total population [5][6]. - The majority of incoming migrants are from within Sichuan province (77%), with notable external migration from Chongqing and Henan [5][6][7]. Reasons for Migration - The primary reasons for migration to Chengdu are employment (55%) and education (13%) [8]. - Chengdu's rich educational resources have led to an increase in university students from 972,000 in 2019 to 1.307 million by 2024, ranking fourth nationally [9]. Labor Market Dynamics - The job market in Chengdu has become increasingly competitive, with a decrease in the job-seeker ratio from 2.39 in Q1 2021 to 1.43 in Q1 2025, indicating a tightening labor market [13]. - Despite the competitive environment, Chengdu's job market remains attractive, with a significant increase in job offerings, growing from 59,400 in Q1 2021 to 1.0165 million in Q1 2025 [13]. Economic Development and Population Density - Chengdu's population density in 2024 is projected to be 1,498 people per square kilometer, significantly lower than the threshold identified for economic development [15][16]. - Scholars suggest that China's urban population density is still lagging behind developed countries, indicating potential for further growth [16]. Quality of Life and Living Conditions - Chengdu is recognized for its livability, being ranked as the top new first-tier city for 11 consecutive years and the happiest city for 16 years [19]. - The city offers a vibrant lifestyle with a mix of modern amenities and cultural experiences, making it appealing for residents [22][24]. - Rental prices in Chengdu are lower compared to first-tier cities, with newer housing options available [23]. Conclusion - Chengdu's rapid population growth, competitive job market, and high quality of life contribute to its status as a major urban center in China, attracting both internal and external migrants [3][4][19][24].

美联储内部分歧达到十年之最，华尔街的观点也随之分裂。 华尔街见闻此前提及，根据6月点阵图，美联储官员对2025年利率预测呈现两极化分布，分歧程度创下十年新高。与此同时，华尔街投行对今年降息时机 的判断也出现了分歧。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在其最新研报中表示，受通胀胀风险和关税影响，预计2025年全年无降息，而花旗则在其研报中预计，9月就可能开启降 息周期，且后续每次会议都可能降息，直至政策利率降至3-3.25%。 大摩与花旗预测迥异 大摩报告明确表示，鉴于通胀压力和关税对消费及企业支出的拖累，2025年不会降息，预计2026年才会启动175个基点的降息周期。 大摩分析称，6月FOMC会议纪要偏鹰派，"大多数"官员仍担忧关税可能导致通胀持久化，甚至动摇通胀预期。如果通胀在6月至9月间加速上升，可能有 更多官员倾向于维持现有政策不变。 相反，花旗研究报告则对9月降息充满信心。 据花旗分析，尽管6月会议纪要显示部分官员对通胀风险的担忧加剧，但随着未来数据发布，通胀压力有望缓解，而劳动力市场疲软的迹象将进一步显 现。 花旗预计，9月FOMC会议后，美联储将启动降息，并在此后每次会议持续降息，直至政策利率降至3- ...