Group 1 - Over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the Trump administration's immigration policies [1] - Immigrants account for approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and services (24%) [2] - Immigration enforcement actions have disrupted many farms and businesses, leading to delays in crop harvesting and waste of produce [2] Group 2 - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of U.S. metropolitan areas, with the most severe losses in Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (7,200 jobs) and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale (6,200 jobs) [4] - The healthcare sector may also be impacted, as about 43% of home care workers are immigrants, raising concerns about staffing shortages in hospitals and nursing homes [4]

Core Insights - The analysis by the Pew Research Center indicates that over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the immigration policies of the Trump administration [1][3] - Immigrants constitute approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and services (24%) [3][4] Labor Market Impact - The cessation of large-scale immigration has had a "huge impact" on job creation capabilities in the U.S., with immigrants typically contributing to at least 50% of employment growth [4] - Enforcement actions against immigrants have led to disruptions in various sectors, particularly agriculture and construction, causing delays in crop harvesting and job losses [4][7] Sector-Specific Effects - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of U.S. metropolitan areas, with the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area losing 7,200 jobs and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area losing 6,200 jobs [7] - The healthcare sector is also likely to be affected, as approximately 43% of home care workers are immigrants, raising concerns about staffing shortages in hospitals and nursing homes [7]

Core Viewpoint - September historically shows a decline in the S&P 500 index, averaging nearly 2% over the past decade, with current uncertainties such as potential Fed rate cuts and political pressures adding to market volatility [1][3]. Market Performance - September is noted as the most volatile month for U.S. markets, with a 56% probability of decline in the S&P 500 index since 1927, averaging a drop of 1.17%. In the last decade, the average decline has worsened to 1.93% [3]. - In the first year of a presidential term, the S&P 500 index has a 58% chance of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.62% [3]. Valuation and Investment Trends - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index has reached 22 times, nearing levels seen at the end of the internet bubble, raising concerns about potential sell-off pressures during portfolio rebalancing at the end of September [4]. - Recent market shifts show cyclical sectors and small-cap stocks leading gains, while large tech stocks lagged behind. Non-essential consumer goods ETFs rose by 4.3%, financial sector ETFs by 2.6%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index increased by 7.3% [4]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with significant drops in non-farm payrolls from May to July, while retail sales and major retailers' earnings indicate strong consumer spending [4]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3% [7]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Fed is anticipated to consider rate cuts due to recent employment data, with Chairman Powell indicating a shift in stance towards a more accommodative policy [7][9]. - Market expectations for rate cuts have fluctuated, with the probability of more than two cuts this year dropping from over 50% to below 30% [9]. Political Pressures - Concerns arise regarding the Fed's independence amid political pressures from the Trump administration, particularly regarding the potential influence over the Fed's board composition [9].

Group 1 - The price of physical gold from Mingpai Jewelry remains unchanged at 1009 yuan per gram as of August 29, 2025, compared to the previous trading day [1] - The platinum price is not provided in the report, indicating a focus solely on gold pricing [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve's Waller indicates that the underlying inflation rate is close to 2% when excluding temporary tariff impacts [2] - The policy interest rate is considered "moderately restrictive," expected to be 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points above the neutral rate [2] - There is no expectation for a significant rate cut in September unless the August employment report shows substantial economic weakness while inflation remains well-controlled [2] - Waller expresses a stronger inclination towards a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further cuts in the next 3-6 months [2] - There is a noted weakening in labor demand, which poses risks to the labor market [2]

近日，美联储理事沃勒就货币政策走向发表重要观点，预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在9月降息25个基 点，且未来3 - 6个月还将继续推进降息进程，这一表态为市场对美联储货币政策的预期提供了关键指引。 沃勒指出，当前支持美联储降息的依据相较于7月份更为充分和强烈。近期，劳动力市场状况成为美联储决策的重 要考量因素。沃勒强调，供给侧的变化并非是出现不佳就业数据的原因，同时他认为关注就业数据的质量以及收 集方式十分必要。目前，劳动力市场面临的下行风险显著加重，这一态势使得美联储在货币政策调整上需更加谨 慎且灵活。 对于即将到来的下一份非农就业报告，沃勒表示其可能会改变自己对于9月潜在降息幅度的看法。不过，就现阶段 情况而言，他认为9月份降息幅度可能无需超过25个基点。这一观点既体现了美联储对经济数据的敏感性，也显示 出其在货币政策调整上的稳健态度，避免因过度降息引发市场波动或其他潜在风险。 在货币政策整体态势方面，沃勒称美联储货币政策具有"适度的限制性"。这意味着当前货币政策既在一定程度上 对经济活动起到约束作用，以防止经济过热和通胀失控，又未过度紧缩而阻碍经济的正常增长。这种"适度限制 性"的货币政策定位，旨 ...

Group 1 - Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, advocates for an immediate interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, and anticipates further cuts in the next three to six months [1][2] - Waller believes that the potential inflation rate in the U.S. is nearing the Fed's long-term target of 2%, and that the labor market may show signs of weakness, warranting a risk management approach that includes an immediate rate cut [1][2] - Waller's stance reflects a growing divergence among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, as he suggests that the Fed should "ignore" these effects, viewing them as temporary [2] Group 2 - Waller's support for a rate cut aligns with his potential candidacy for the next Fed chair, as he has consistently expressed concerns about high rates in an economy lacking inflationary pressure [2][3] - The recent dissent among Fed governors regarding interest rate decisions is notable, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple governors have opposed a rate decision, indicating a fracture in consensus on economic and inflation impacts [2] - Economic advisor Stephen Miran has praised Waller's performance at the Fed, highlighting his impressive predictions on inflation and policy recommendations [3]

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 229,000, indicating employers are retaining existing employees despite economic uncertainty [1] - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 228,500, suggesting a trend of stability in the labor market [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.3% in August, up from 4.2% in July, reflecting a weak hiring environment [2] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a "no hiring, no firing" situation due to protectionist trade policies, with average import tariffs at a century-high [2] - Average job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 jobs expected for the same period in 2024 [2] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 7,000 to 1.954 million, indicating a slight improvement in hiring conditions [2] Group 3 - Consumer sentiment regarding job availability has worsened, with the percentage of consumers believing jobs are hard to find reaching a four-and-a-half-year high [3] - The stability of the unemployment rate is attributed to low levels of layoffs, while a slowdown in labor force growth may mask underlying issues in the labor market [3]

Core Insights - The employment market in Bosnia is experiencing a decline in job openings while job-seeking demand continues to rise [1] Recruitment Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, a total of 5,398 job advertisements were published, offering 10,540 job positions, which represents an 18% decrease in job ads and a 22% decrease in job positions compared to the same period last year [1] - Overall, the recruitment market in Bosnia saw a 24% drop in advertisement volume, indicating a significant contraction in employment supply [1] - Despite the decrease in job advertisements, the demand for job seekers remains stable, with a total of 186,300 job applications received, which is roughly unchanged from the previous year [1] Job Application Trends - The average number of applications per job position increased by 28%, rising from 14 applications to 18 applications [1] - The average view count per job advertisement has increased by over 20% [1] Industry Demand - The highest demand for job positions is concentrated in five key sectors: business/sales, electrical engineering and mechanical engineering, transportation and logistics, manufacturing, and hospitality/tourism [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Symposium this year highlighted the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Powell indicating a potential interest rate cut in September, amidst conflicting economic signals and political pressures [5][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Signals and Fed's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is grappling with inflation above the 2% target and signs of a weakening labor market, creating a complex environment for decision-making [5][6]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted the conflicting signals and the difficulty of timing policy changes during transitional periods [6]. - Powell's remarks suggested that tariffs are impacting prices, but the long-term effects on inflation remain uncertain [7]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Political pressure on the Fed is intensifying, particularly from President Trump, who is advocating for rate cuts and threatening to dismiss officials over controversies [6][7]. - The atmosphere at the symposium was notably tense, with increased security measures reflecting the heightened scrutiny of the Fed's actions [6]. Group 3: Fed's Policy Framework - Powell introduced a new framework aimed at guiding the Fed's approach to achieving inflation and employment targets, marking a shift from previous strategies [8]. - This new strategy emphasizes the importance of an independent Federal Reserve in addressing economic challenges effectively [9][10]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - Following Powell's speech, the euro strengthened against the dollar, raising concerns about potential downward risks to inflation in the Eurozone [11]. - The interconnectedness of the U.S. economy with global markets means that a slowdown in U.S. growth could have significant implications for other economies [11].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy's GDP growth slowed to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, approximately half of the 2.5% growth rate expected for the first half of 2024[2] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, with non-farm payroll growth averaging only 35,000 jobs per month from May to July 2025, significantly below the 2024 average[2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - July 2025 CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation pressures[2] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the natural unemployment rate and the need for a balanced approach when employment and inflation targets conflict[1] Policy Framework Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a shift back to a flexible inflation targeting framework, abandoning the previous compensatory strategy adopted in 2020[3] - The consensus statement removed references to the "employment shortfall," highlighting the uncertainty in estimating the natural unemployment rate[3] Future Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in the September meeting has increased, reflecting concerns over the labor market's fragility and potential economic downturns[6] - The adjustments in monetary policy framework may lead to increased market volatility due to reduced predictability in future policy paths[5]