风险提示及免责条款 美联储理事Waller：我担心的是劳动力市场，我主张降息。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

美联储在制定货币政策时面临"数据迷雾"，市场转向"数票"模式。12名今年拥有投票权的官员中，已有 5人表示倾向下月维持利率不变，不过美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯暗示近期可能再次降 息，这一表态提升了市场对12月降息的预期，联邦基金期货显示的降息概率从低于30%反弹至60%以 上。分析认为，12月的决议正在成为多年来最接近的表决，降息和按兵不动的概率五五开。 在取消公布10月份CPI数据后，当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工统计局表示，原定于12月10日 发布的11月份CPI数据，将推迟到12月18日，这意味着美联储在12月10日利率决议时，将再度缺少通胀 数据作为参考。 陷入数据迷雾 12月，美联储在制定货币政策时将面临"数据迷雾"。当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工部下属的 劳工统计局（BLS）在官网发布了对多项数据报告的决定，以及一些报告修订后的发布日期。劳工统计 局表示，将取消原定于11月13日发布的10月份消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。声明解释称，由于拨款中 断，BLS无法收集10月份的调查数据，也无法追溯收集这些数据。 近期，多位美联储官员已经表达了对在"数据迷雾"中制定货币政策 ...

威廉姆斯表示，关税对整体通胀贡献约为0.5至0.75个百分点，但尚未看到其引发二轮通胀效应。他预计 通胀要到2027年才能重新回到2%的目标水平，并认为财政政策将在明年为经济增长带来一定支撑，但 移民与关税政策可能带来相反的压力。 与柯林斯持相似谨慎态度的还有达拉斯联储主席洛根。她在瑞士苏黎世的一场活动中表示，如果没有明 确证据显示通胀将比预期更快下行，或劳动力市场降温更迅速，那么她"将很难支持"在12月再次降息。 洛根认为，在不确定性升高的环境下，贸然继续降息可能导致未来不得不重新加息，从而引发金融和经 济波动，因此暂停降息更能让决策者观察当前政策的实际限制效果。她还指出，金融市场的资产价格上 涨及信用利差收窄表明金融环境依然宽松，因此政策利率需要抵消这类来自金融条件的顺风。 洛根也谈到未来资产负债表操作，表示美联储可能在不久后恢复资产购买，以确保资金市场运作顺畅。 她强调，这类操作属于技术性举措，不会代表货币政策方向发生改变。 相比之下，美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯则释放出更鸽派的信号。他在智利发表讲话时表 示，随着劳动力市场出现更多下行风险、通胀上行压力减弱，他认为近期还有进一步降息的"空间" ...

【导读】 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，鉴于劳动力市场疲软，他认为美联储在短期内仍有再次降息的空间 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹啊，全球资本市场风雨飘摇之际，美联储出手了。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，美联储有可能在12月再次降息。 这位具有重要影响力的决策者在智利发表讲话时称，相比通胀风险，他现在更担心劳动力市场面临的压力，这与联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）中一些偏鸽派成员的观点一致。 约翰·威廉姆斯被称为 美联储"三号人物"。作为纽约联储主席，他同时担任联邦公开市场委员会负责制定利率政策的副主席，拥有永久投票权，在美联 储决策中具有重要影响力。 他表示，贸易关税可能为当前通胀率贡献了约0.5到0.75个百分点，但他并不认为关税会引发第二轮或其他连锁的价格传导效应。 截至今年9月的12个月里，美国CPI同比上涨3%，这也让部分官员对通胀前景仍存忧虑。 威廉姆斯强调，美联储必须把通胀率重新拉回2%的目标，但在这个过程中也要尽量避免对劳动力市场造成更大伤害。 威廉姆斯表示： "展望未来，把通胀在可持续的基础上恢复到我们2%的长期目标是当务之急。同样重要的是，我们必须在实现这一目标的 同时，不给最大就业 ...

Labor Market Insights - The recent labor market indicators suggest a dovish stance, with an increase in the unemployment rate and permanent layoffs, indicating the impact of restrictive Federal Reserve policies [1][2] - The unemployment rate is projected to potentially rise to 4.5% by December 16, which may influence the Fed's decision-making [11] Inflation Perspectives - Current inflation is reported to be around 3%, but much of this is viewed as a statistical artifact rather than a true reflection of supply-demand imbalances [2][6] - Market rents have been stable at about 1% for a couple of years, suggesting no significant supply-demand issues in the housing market [3][5] Monetary Policy Considerations - The Fed's monetary policy should be forward-looking, focusing on forecasts for the economy 12 to 18 months ahead rather than past data [8][10] - There is a call for a 25 basis point cut in interest rates to prevent economic harm, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to monetary policy [15][16] Economic Growth Factors - Factors that may support GDP growth in the coming year include regulatory relaxations, which could enhance supply without creating demand excess [19][20] - The timing of regulatory changes and their impact on the economy is acknowledged as a critical consideration, with a distinction made between immediate fiscal measures and longer-term supply-side improvements [21][22] Financial Market Dynamics - The relationship between financial markets and monetary policy is complex, with a caution against conflating stock market performance with the need for job losses [30][34] - Housing remains a key area where financial conditions are still tight, indicating that the current economic environment is not excessively easy [32][33] Inequality and Employment - The Fed's mandate focuses on stabilizing employment and prices, rather than addressing broader social issues like inequality [36] - An increase in unemployment due to restrictive policies could disproportionately affect lower-income individuals, which is a concern for policymakers [37]

新华财经北京11月21日电美联储官员柯林斯表示，目前维持利率稳定是"适当的"，因为通胀可能在一段 时间内保持高位。她补充称，劳动力市场似乎在降温，但降速并不快。柯林斯表示："如果我看到劳动 力市场明显恶化的迹象，我会非常重视，这确实可能为近期进一步宽松提供理由，但我们尚未看到失业 率出现显著变化。"她还表示，美联储当前的政策设置"是在平衡劳动力市场方面的风险与持续存在的通 胀相关风险。" （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Employment Data - In September, non-farm employment increased by 119,000, but the previous values for July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000[4] - The education, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality sectors were the main contributors to job growth, with government and construction sectors seeing the largest increases of 44,000 and 33,000 jobs respectively[5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, marking the highest level since the end of 2021, primarily due to an increase in labor force participation[12] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings in September saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.8%[15] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was observed in the business services and financial sectors, at 4.8% and 4.5% respectively[15] - Wage growth has been declining since November 2024, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power[15] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor supply is exceeding demand, with the labor demand gap widening to -157,000 in August, indicating more unemployed individuals than job vacancies[12] - The U6 unemployment rate slightly decreased to 8%, reflecting stabilization in the marginal labor market[12] - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased to 40%, although this is a significant drop from the previous week[19] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[22]

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has decreased to 220,000, indicating that employers are still trying to maintain their workforce despite economic uncertainties [1][3] - However, the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits has risen to 1.974 million, the highest level since October 2021, suggesting a bleak outlook for the labor market [4] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 220,000, below the expected 227,000 [1] - Continuing claims increased to 1.974 million, exceeding the expected 1.95 million [4] Group 2: Labor Market Context - Major companies like Amazon and Target have announced layoffs, yet the jobless claims remain relatively stable [3] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in decision-making due to a lack of key employment data, which complicates the assessment of the labor market [6][7]

新华财经北京11月20日电（王姝睿）9月非农数据姗姗来迟，标志着因美国政府停摆导致的官方就业数 据空窗期正式结束。虽然时效不足，但考虑到11月非农就业数据推迟至美联储12月政策会议后公布，而 9月数据并未消除美联储内部分歧，12月降息的可能性继续下降。 就业指标方向不确定 数据显示，美国9月季调后非农就业人口新增11.9万人，预期5万人。美国9月平均每小时工资年率 3.8%，预期3.7%，前值由3.7%修正为3.8%；9月平均每小时工资月率0.2%，预期0.3%，前值由0.3%修 正为0.4%。失业率数据则表现不佳，9月失业率为4.4%，预期4.3%，前值4.3%。美联储政策制定者现在 面临的重大决策是：就业市场这种方向不确定的信号，能否支撑继续宽松。 美国劳工统计局表示，7月非农新增就业人数从7.9万人下修7000人至7.2万人；8月非农新增就业人数从 2.2万人下修2.6万至-0.4万人。修正后，7月和8月新增就业人数合计较修正前低3.3万人。 美联储内部分歧难消 经济数据断供终结，但美联储立场已生变，综合数据与美联储官员言论来看，年内第三次降息恐难落 地。美联储主席鲍威尔最近将当前形势比作"在迷雾中驾驶 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. job growth in September is expected to show a mild rebound, while the unemployment rate remains around 4.3%, indicating a weak labor market [1] - Economists estimate that the economy currently needs to create only 30,000 to 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with the growth of the working-age population, significantly lower than the approximately 150,000 jobs needed in 2024 [2] - The labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with the assumption that this trend will continue, although a recession is not anticipated [1][2] Group 2 - The increasing prevalence of artificial intelligence is reducing entry-level job opportunities, making it difficult for recent graduates to find employment [3] - The economic environment is particularly unfavorable for small and medium-sized enterprises, which are experiencing most of the job losses [4] - A weak employment report in September could influence the Federal Reserve's policy meeting scheduled for December, as policymakers are cautious about further rate cuts that could undermine inflation control efforts [4]