Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 10,000 to 214,000 for the week ending December 20, which is below the economists' median forecast of 224,000 [5] - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose to 1.92 million in the previous week [5] - The recent fluctuations in new claims are typical for this time of year, especially around the holiday season, with claims having spiked earlier in the month from a three-year low during Thanksgiving [5] Group 2 - The four-week moving average of new claims, which helps smooth out volatility, also showed a decline last week [5] - The layoff rate in the labor market remains relatively low, maintaining stability throughout the year despite increasing economic uncertainty [5] - Major companies like PepsiCo and HP have announced layoff plans, but these have not yet translated into a significant increase in actual layoffs [5]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 10,000 to 214,000, which was better than the expected 224,000 [1] - The number of continuing claims rose by 38,000 to 1.923 million, indicating a potential deterioration in the labor market perception among consumers [1] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, the highest level in four years, partly due to technical factors related to government shutdowns [1] Group 2 - The four-week moving average of new claims also showed a decline, aligning with the trend of low layoffs despite increasing economic uncertainty [2] - Despite recent announcements of layoffs from major employers like PepsiCo and HP, these have not yet translated into a significant increase in actual layoffs [2] - Consumer confidence has declined for the fifth consecutive month in December, with a rising percentage of consumers perceiving the job market as severe, reaching the highest level since early 2021 [2]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy demonstrated unexpected growth resilience in Q3, with a seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth rate of 4.3%, significantly above the market forecast of 3.3% [1] - This growth rate not only surpassed the previous quarter's 3.8% but also marked the fastest expansion in nearly two years [1] Key Drivers of Growth - Consumer spending, exports, and public spending were the main drivers of economic growth in the quarter [3] - Consumer spending, a core economic driver, had an annualized growth rate of 3.5%, outperforming the previous quarter [3] - Increases in exports and public spending provided solid support for growth, while private fixed investment continued to decline, though the rate of decline has narrowed [3] Inflation Concerns - Despite strong economic growth, inflation pressures remain persistent, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rising by 2.8% year-on-year in Q3, exceeding previous values [4] - The core PCE inflation rate recorded an increase of 2.9%, significantly above the long-term target set by the Federal Reserve [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market may be entering a phase of reduced activity, with companies showing cautious hiring intentions, potentially influenced by policy uncertainties and a sustained high-interest rate environment [8] - Recent employment data indicated that the unemployment rate has risen to a high level in recent years, although the number of new non-farm jobs added was slightly better than expected [6][8] Future Outlook - Economists suggest that recent employment growth data may be subject to downward revisions in the future [8] - Market participants are closely monitoring corporate pricing behavior in response to changes in the global trade environment, assessing potential impacts on overall price levels and adding uncertainty to future inflation and economic trends [8]

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined for the fifth consecutive month, dropping from 92.9 to 89.1, marking the longest decline since 2008 [1][2] - The current conditions index fell to 116.8, the lowest level since February 2021, while the expectations index for the next six months remained unchanged in December [1][2] - High inflation and concerns about the labor market have suppressed consumer confidence throughout the year, with the index hovering near pandemic lows [1][2] Economic Outlook - Employment growth remains weak, with rising unemployment rates and inflation still above the Federal Reserve's target [1][2] - Economists predict that hiring activity will remain moderate next year, with limited improvement in the unemployment rate, which may continue to drag down consumer confidence [1][2] - Wage growth is expected to slow further by 2026, potentially exacerbating consumption disparities among different income groups [1][2]

美联储的哈马克表示，鉴于数据收集存在技术性失真，11月美国2.7%的消费者价格指数数据或许低估 了物价涨幅，中性利率水平可能高于市场普遍预期，因此要对通胀保持警惕。她更担忧居高不下的通 胀，而非潜在的劳动力市场脆弱性。哈马克认为，在过去三次连续降息后，美联储未来几个月内没必要 对利率进行任何调整，因此倾向于在2026年春季前维持利率稳定。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯上周五也公开表示，12月的降息措施已使货币政策处于"非常有利的位 置"，美联储目前并不迫切需要进一步降低利率。他强调，目前的政策立场已经平衡，并指出近期数据 中存在技术性扭曲，为判断经济形势增添了复杂性。未来需要观察更多数据才能对再次降息感到放心， 并称2026年1月底的会议是否行动将是一个艰难的决定。他同时澄清，美联储近期扩大资产负债表、购 买国库券的操作是技术性的，旨在为银行系统提供必要的准备金，而非量化宽松政策。 美联储理事米兰则表示，劳动力市场正朝着不利的方向发展，而要阻止这一进程，必须放宽相关政策以 助力劳动力市场复苏。 转自：经济参考报 新华财经北京12月23日电（记者 周武英）美联储2025年12月实施了年内第三次降息，将联邦基金利率 ...

美联储在12月如期降息，将联邦基金目标利率下调至3.5%-3.75%区间。不出所料，这一决定引发争议： 地区联储主席奥斯汀·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）和杰弗里·施密德（Jeffrey Schmid）投出反对票，主 张维持利率不变；理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）则支持更大幅度的50个基点降息。 本次会议整体基调偏鹰派，但鹰派程度或许低于市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔（Jay Powell）表示，联 邦基金利率"处于其中性水平估计区间的广泛范围内"，且"联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）已做好充分 准备，等待观察经济发展态势"。 英国《金融时报》货币政策雷达（Monetary Policy Radar）团队认为，鲍威尔的表态印证了他们的预 期，即美联储将在明年1月底的下次会议上维持当前利率水平不变。 不过，该团队认为应谨慎看待12月会议的鹰派暗示。美联储今年首次降息时就已明确，其将优先稳定劳 动力市场，而非担忧关税引发的物价上涨可能不是一次性的。 即便此前数周经过一番深思熟虑，美联储仍在12月再次降息，这表明上述政策反应机制仍在发挥作用。 该团队认为，劳动力市场疲软态势可能延续至明年，美联 ...

上周金价大幅波动，周初市场预期美国11月就业数据疲软，金价强势上涨突破4370美元，周中受俄乌和 谈取得进展影响，避险情绪降温，金价冲高回落，周尾美联储官员发表鸽派言论，金价再度反弹，截至 收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度涨0.93%报4368.7美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）周度 涨0.95%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨0.05%。 瑞士宝盛首席经济学家大卫·柯尔表示，美联储内部在如何权衡高企的通胀、劳动力市场走弱的问题上 分歧加剧，从而提升了未来政策路径的不确定性。但随着劳动力市场走弱、通胀没有再度加速的背景 下，预计美联储将在2026年再降息两次，金价有望获得支撑。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面上，鹰鸽分歧严重分化，以哈塞特和古尔斯比为代表的鸽派阵营表示，当前仍存在充足的降息空 间。美联储哈马克则表态偏鹰，更倾向于在春季前维持利率稳定，并暗示中性利率高于普遍认为的水 平。哈马克认为未来几个月内没有任何调整利率的必要，反对近期降息，因为更担心居高不下的通胀， 而非潜在的劳动力市场脆弱性。 ...

瑞士宝盛首席经济学家大卫·柯尔表示，美联储内部在如何权衡高企的通胀、劳动力市场走弱的问题上 分歧加剧，从而提升了未来政策路径的不确定性。但随着劳动力市场走弱、通胀没有再度加速的背景 下，预计美联储将在2026年再降息两次，金价有望获得支撑。 12月15日-12月19日，上周金价大幅波动，周初市场预期美国11月就业数据疲软，金价强势上涨突破 4370美元，周中受俄乌和谈取得进展影响，避险情绪降温，金价冲高回落，周尾美联储官员发表鸽派言 论，金价再度反弹，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度涨0.93%报4368.7美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄 金ETF华夏（518850）周度涨0.95%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨0.05%。 消息面上，鹰鸽分歧严重分化，以哈塞特和古尔斯比为代表的鸽派阵营表示，当前仍存在充足的降息空 间。美联储哈马克则表态偏鹰，更倾向于在春季前维持利率稳定，并暗示中性利率高于普遍认为的水 平。哈马克认为未来几个月内没有任何调整利率的必要，反对近期降息，因为更担心居高不下的通胀， 而非潜在的劳动力市场脆弱性。 每日经济新闻 ...

中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.86%，个股方面，小马智行涨近12%，禾赛科技涨超7%，小鹏汽车涨近7%，再鼎医药涨约5%。 美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.38%，标普500指数涨0.88%，纳指涨1.31%。本周，道指跌0.67%，标普500指数涨0.1%，纳指涨0.48%。 谈及劳动力市场，威廉姆斯称"完全没有出现任何急剧恶化的迹象"。 美国总统特朗普正在推进美联储主席人选遴选，已与现任理事沃勒进行了深入面试，双方就劳动力市场及如何刺激就业创造展开详细讨论。此次面试被高 级政府官员描述为"非常成功"，但特朗普尚未做出最终决定。 贝莱德首席投资官里克·里德将于今年最后一周在海湖庄园就美联储主席职位接受面试。特朗普似乎正将关注点转向就业市场。 美国最新公布的11月非农就业报告显示失业率从9月的4.4%上升至4.6%，而薪资增长几乎停滞。 特朗普在周三演讲中称："今天工作的人数比美国历史上任何时候都多。自我上任以来创造的所有工作岗位100%来自私营部门。" 实习编辑:金怡杉 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 此外，现货黄金也拉升飘红，最终收于4340美元上方。 消息面上，美联储再次传来大消息。 纽约联储主 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事米兰：劳动力市场正朝着我们应该阻止的轨迹发展。 ...